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월요일, 3월 18, 2019

S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 is trading above its main simple moving average suggesting bullish momentum.   S&P500 4-hour chart The S&P500

S&P500 daily chartThe S&P500 is trading above its main simple moving average suggesting bullish momentum.
 S&P500 4-hour chartThe S&P500 is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.
 S&P500 60-minute chartThe S&P500 is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term.The break above 2,830.00 can lead to 2,850.00 and 2,890 resistances.Support is at 2,830.00; 2,820.00 and 2,805.00 level.
Additional key levelsSP 500 Overview:
    Today Last Price: 2834
    Today Daily change: 9.25 points
    Today Daily change %: 0.33%
    Today Daily Open: 2824.75
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2787.06
    Daily SMA50: 2727.02
    Daily SMA100: 2679.67
    Daily SMA200: 2754.21
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 2831
    Previous Daily Low: 2810.25
    Previous Weekly High: 2831
    Previous Weekly Low: 2746.5
    Previous Monthly High: 2814.25
    Previous Monthly Low: 2681.75
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2823.07
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2818.18
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2813
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2801.25
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2792.25
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2833.75
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2842.75
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2854.5  

New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey dipped from previous 109.1 to 103.8 in 1Q

Mikael Olai Milhøj, analyst at Danske Bank, points out Brexit remains the key driver of the pound. They expect uncertainty to keep the currency underv

Mikael Olai Milhøj, analyst at Danske Bank, points out Brexit remains the key driver of the pound. They expect uncertainty to keep the currency undervalued and volatile, awaiting some clarification.  Key Quotes:  “Brexit uncertainties and the slowdown in the rest of Europe continue to weigh on the UK economy. While GDP growth was strong in January, it was mostly a rebound after an extremely weak December. The PMIs suggest GDP growth may be as low as 0.0-0.1% q/q in Q1. Recently, we lowered our GDP forecasts to only 1% this year and 1.3% next year (from 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively). Another worrying sign is that the PMI employment sub-index is below 50, which is usually associated with falling employment.” “Brexit remains the key driver for GBP and we expect uncertainty to keep GBP undervalued and volatile until we get some clarification.” “With a likely extension of Brexit, we think EUR/GBP will remain in the 0.85-0.87 range for now. We see a risk investors will be disappointed about the progress near term, which could lead EUR/GBP to move to the higher end of the range. We target 0.86 in 1M. Further out, we base our forecast on our base case that a deal will pass and that this could happen before the summer break, paving the way for a decline in EUR/GBP. We lower our targets to 0.83 (previously 0.84) in 3M and 0.82 (previously 0.83) in 6M on the back of the ECB’s dovish policy shift.” “If no deal is reached by then, we expect a long extension, which should also strengthen the GBP. In this scenario, we expect EUR/GBP to trade in the range 0.84-0.86. Our 12M target is unchanged at 0.83.”

Analysts at Citibank, expected hte US dollar to decline against G10 currencies, by around 1% in a 0-3 month horizon and 4% over 6 to 12 months.  Key

Analysts at Citibank, expected hte US dollar to decline against G10 currencies, by around 1% in a 0-3 month horizon and 4% over 6 to 12 months. Key Quotes: “The $ can fall when there is positive growth convergence (RoW growth outperforms the US, a la 2017) and negative growth convergence (US and ROW growth falls but RoW growth falls less).” “In 2015, US growth retreated from 3.8% yoy to 1.3% yoy but Eurozone growth slowed down from 2.0% yoy to 1.8% yoy only. The dollar index fell from 100 to 93 in this period.” “We expect the differential between US and EA growth to peak in 2Q this year. Growth outperformance may narrow from 2% to 1.8% in Q2 and further reduce to 0.7% in Q4, which may undermine the USD.” “Our point forecasts show the $ around 1% weaker vs. G10 over 0-3m and around 4% weaker over 6-12m.”
 

Analysts at Commerzbank, point out that gold is viewed forming a major base longer term. They warn about the key resistance at 1365.36/1375.53, signal

Analysts at Commerzbank, point out that gold is viewed forming a major base longer term. They warn about the key resistance at 1365.36/1375.53, signaling that a break higher could lead to rally to 1700. Key Quotes: “A weekly close above 1375.53 2016 high (and ideally above the 1392.56 2014 peak) should trigger a move eventually to just over 1700.00.” “Gold is underpinned by the 1148.32 55 quarter moving average.” “Initial upside targets are the 1522.48/1526.98 December 2011 and May 2012 lows.” “Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while trading above the 1276.60/56 January lows.”
 

James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, points out that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged and stick to its “patient” approach. However,

James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, points out that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged and stick to its “patient” approach. However, he warns, about an announcement regarding the balance sheet. Key Quotes: “After having expanded the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to a peak of around $4.5trillion through quantitative easing, it is gradually being unwound through the proceeds of some maturing assets not being reinvested in the bond market. The balance sheet currently stands at just under $4trillion with the Fed signalling that it may bring this process of balance sheet reduction (or quantitative tightening) to an end as early as the end of this year. We could see this being formally announced on Wednesday and it would leave the Federal Reserve with a much larger balance sheet than was originally envisaged at the start of the process.” “We think futures markets are being too pessimistic in pricing in the next Federal Reserve move being an interest rate cut.” “Cross-currents' have led the Federal Reserve to adopt a more 'patient', data dependent approach to monetary policy for 2019. While the market is pricing in an eventual cut as the next Fed move, we continue to look for one last 25 basis point hike in late summer as growth returns and trade tensions ease.”

Gold prices have been recovering from the 1280 lows but has so far been unable convince o the upside with momentum dwindle as drivers, such as Brexit,

Gold has turned south from the descending resistance at 1306 and priced through the 1300 level to a low of 1298.34 so far, looking for a break below with sights set on 1280. Price action likely limited until the Fed this week, but plenty of risk events on the cards to move markets. Gold prices have been recovering from the 1280 lows but has so far been unable convince o the upside with momentum dwindle as drivers, such as Brexit, trade talks, (the NZ shootings made for a knee-jerk reaction), take the foot off the gas as markets now prefer to see the outcomes of such noise. Eyes on the FedMeanwhile, all eyes are on the Fed this week in precious metals, where traders are looking for lower dots, and a bigger balance sheet. "While gold prices have remained bound in a tight range of late, the bar remains elevated for the Fed to ignite fireworks that would significantly impact prices," analysts at TD Securities argued. "Meanwhile, CTAs continue to eye a break above the $1315/oz range before they significantly add to upside flow in gold."Gold levelsWhile trading above 1275, on the way up, bulls can target 1315 as the next key target that meets the trend-line prior support of the rising channel - 1313 is the 50% Fibo target. 1332 guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19. While 1280 is a keen target, 1275 remains the line in the sand to the downside, and a break below it will put the attention back to the towards to 1250, a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance.
 

In their weekly strategy report, analysts at Citibank, explained that they pushed back the rate hike timing of the European Central Bank to the first

In their weekly strategy report, analysts at Citibank, explained that they pushed back the rate hike timing of the European Central Bank to the first quarter of 2021 after the latest meeting, which may undermine EUR.Key Quotes: “Investors are equally worried about the broader aggregate Eurozone data momentum and potential for recession risks. Eurozone current account surpluses, Chinese easing and fading US growth outperformance may underpin EUR in the medium and long term.” “EUR/USD continued to retreat while Slow Stochastic did not follow with higher lows. A bottom divergence pattern may send EUR higher, with resistance at 1.1514 and support at 1.1177.” “The dovish Fed, China’s policy stimulus and likely Chinese economic stabilization in 3Q may weaken USD in the medium and long term, which may support EUR.”

British junior Brexit minister Kwasi Kwarteng recently crossed the wires saying that if the EU Council did not grant an extension to Article 50, the w

British junior Brexit minister Kwasi Kwarteng recently crossed the wires saying that if the EU Council did not grant an extension to Article 50, the would leave on March 29 with no deal.Key quotes (via Reuters)Asked if parliament will get to vote on length of Brexit delay, says the length of any Article 50 extension will be agreed between EU and UK government. I still think there is a chance the Brexit deal can come back and go through parliament.

The AUD/USD pair started the week on a firm footing boosted by the risk-on mood and rising commodity, namely iron ore, prices in the first half of the

Modest USD recovery weighs on the pair.Commodities' performance helped AUD earlier in the day.Coming up: RBA meeting minutes.The AUD/USD pair started the week on a firm footing boosted by the risk-on mood and rising commodity, namely iron ore, prices in the first half of the day. After touching its highest level of March at 0.7120, however, the pair failed to preserve its bullish momentum and erased its gains in the NA trading hours. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on the day at 0.7090. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, the RBA is scheduled to release the minutes of its March meeting, at which the bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged as expected and said that trade tensions remained as a source of uncertainty. Last week, Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, argued that the RBA was pointing out to a balanced outlook for the economy regardless of the pessimistic market pricing. Ahead of the RBA's minutes, the house price index from Australia will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Analysts expect house price to decline by 2% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter following the third quarter's 1.5% fall. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index pushed lower earlier in the day but didn't have a tough time recovering its losses ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. A modest rebound witnessed in the 10-year T-bond yield following last Friday's sharp fall seems to be supporting the greenback. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.1% on the day at 96.60.Key technical levelsAUD/USD Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7101
    Daily SMA50: 0.7137
    Daily SMA100: 0.7161
    Daily SMA200: 0.7226
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7098
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7061
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7099
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7026
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7285
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7053
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7084
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7075
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7065
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7045
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7028
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7101
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7118
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7138    

USD/CHF daily chart USD/CHF is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).   USD/CHF 4-hour chart USD/CHF is tradi

USD/CHF daily chartUSD/CHF is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
 USD/CHF 4-hour chartUSD/CHF is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the medium-term.
 USD/CHF 30-minute chartUSD/CHF is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the short-term.A break below 0.9990 can lead to 0.9500 key support.To the upside, resistances are at 1.0020, 1.0040 key level and 1.0070 level.
 
Additional key levelsUSD/CHF Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.0014
    Today Daily change: -7 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.07%
    Today Daily Open: 1.0021
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0031
    Daily SMA50: 0.9979
    Daily SMA100: 0.9971
    Daily SMA200: 0.992
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.0053
    Previous Daily Low: 1.001
    Previous Weekly High: 1.012
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.001
    Previous Monthly High: 1.01
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.9921
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0026
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0037
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0003
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.9985
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.996
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0046
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0071
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0089  

USD/MXN Daily Chart USD/MXN Overview:     Today Last Price: 19.0702     Today Daily change: -0.1391 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.72%     Tod

The Mexican peso broke a key technical level and appears to be headed to further gains. On Friday, the USD/MXN dropped below 19.20, leaving it vulnerable to more losses in the short-term and today it is trading under an uptrend line that stands at 19.10. A confirmation under that area would point to a test of 19.00 with the odds favoring a break lower. The next zone to watch is 18.85/87, YTD lows. The US dollar needs to rise back above 19.20 to remove the intraday bearish bias, while under 19.30 the bearish outlook would remain intact. USD/MXN Daily Chart USD/MXN Overview:
    Today Last Price: 19.0702
    Today Daily change: -0.1391 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.72%
    Today Daily Open: 19.2093
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 19.2816
    Daily SMA50: 19.1912
    Daily SMA100: 19.6548
    Daily SMA200: 19.4162
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 19.3201
    Previous Daily Low: 19.1846
    Previous Weekly High: 19.5204
    Previous Weekly Low: 19.1846
    Previous Monthly High: 19.4726
    Previous Monthly Low: 19.0168
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 19.2363
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 19.2683
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 19.1559
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 19.1024
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 19.0203
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 19.2914
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 19.3735
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 19.427
 

WTI has climbed on Monday following the weekend news that OPEC members have agreed to trim 800,000 barrels a day from October’s production levels for

WTI is currently trading at $59.06bbls between a range of $58.08bbls and $59.21bbls.Technicals are aligned bullishly.WTI has climbed on Monday following the weekend news that OPEC members have agreed to trim 800,000 barrels a day from October’s production levels for six months through June of this year, with Russia and other allied producers cutting another 400,000 barrels a day to total 1.2 million barrels in cuts. On Monday, another meeting took place between the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, (JMMC), where “overall conformity” was seen rising to almost 90% in February, up from 83% in January - The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is a production policy monitoring group that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia.  Meanwhile,  the output cut agreement has led to a more than 25% rise in price of Brent oil YTD.  The JMMC recommended that OPEC forgo a meeting scheduled for  April and instead it should take place on June 25 to make a decision on the production target for the second half of the year. Traders eyes are now on the Energy Information Administration data. EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in February, down slightly from the January average. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million b/d in 2019 and 13.0 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.WTI levelsWhile the price holds above the double-top highs and above the 57.93 horizontal prior resistance line going back to mid-Nov 2018, the market leans bullish. However, a break of 59.70 is needed where bulls will then look to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows at 63.74, reviving prospects for the 70 handle. On the flipside, a fall to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure.

AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs).    AUD/USD 4-hour chart AUD/USD is tra

AUD/USD daily chartAUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs).  AUD/USD 4-hour chartAUD/USD is trading between the 50 and 100 SMAs suggesting a consolidation in the medium-term. AUD/USD 30-minute chartAUD/USD is trading above its 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting bullish momentum.A break above 0.7100 can lead to a move up to 0.7115 and 0.7130 resistances. Support to the downside is at 0.7090 and 0.7070 key level.
 Additional key levelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7094
    Today Daily change: 9 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.13%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7085
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7101
    Daily SMA50: 0.7137
    Daily SMA100: 0.7161
    Daily SMA200: 0.7226
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7098
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7061
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7099
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7026
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7285
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7053
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7084
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7075
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7065
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7045
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7028
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7101
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7118
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7138  

"We expect the FOMC decision on 20 March to leave the current policy rate unchanged, move the median policy rate forecast for 2019 to one hike (from t

"We expect the FOMC decision on 20 March to leave the current policy rate unchanged, move the median policy rate forecast for 2019 to one hike (from two), maintain 2020 at one hike and discuss the end to the balance-sheet taper in a separate communication or at the press conference," notes Standard Chartered economist Sonia Meskin.Key quotes"We believe the distribution around the median projected policy rate (‘dot plot’) in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be important. A tighter distribution around the median would be a dovish signal to the markets (see How the Fed can surprise investors)." "We also expect a modest downgrade to the GDP projections in 2019, unchanged inflation projections, and a modest downgrade to estimates of neutral policy rate and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). The median long-run potential growth rate estimate could decline as well." "Fundamentally, we believe the Committee’s focus has partly shifted to ways to support growth in the next downturn. While the number of hikes remaining in this cycle matters for the markets, the Committee appears less focused on the precise level at which rates stand once the US economy enters the downturn than on other potential policy tools it may deploy then."

The yen has been ascending from a low of 110.74 recent lows towards the 112 figure again as equity markets perked up again. Casting minds back to the

USD/JPY has taken on a key support line and is currently trading at 111.39, within a range of between 111.29 and 111.62.Trading with a range of consolidation, upcoming data will help give the yen some direction.The yen has been ascending from a low of 110.74 recent lows towards the 112 figure again as equity markets perked up again. Casting minds back to the start of this year, USD/JPY rose from a 108 end-of-day low at the beginning of January (flash-crash aside) to a 2019 peak of 112, seen in early March. In more recent trade, and as analysts at Westpac note, it was the past week’s culmination of a sharp downward revision in ECB forecasts, weak China trade data, a sell-rating on a major China insurer, and a more ambiguous US payrolls report that had the market reassessing its growth expectations: Accordingly, the switch from a risk-on to risk-off thematic saw equity markets post their worst week for 2019, US 10 year bond yields falling as low as 2.60% and USD/JPY returning back to 111 – testing the bottom of a distinct trend-channel. We think the recent bearish impetus is a bit overdone."FOMC -  The distribution of dots will matter which could signal policy leanThis week will be key in determining the trajectory of USD/JPY as we head into the FOMC. While the FOMC is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at the March meeting, traders will be looking to the dot plot for the median projected policy rate for 2019 to reflect one more hike - The distribution of dots will matter which could signal policy lean. Another factor to scrutinise will be the Fed's balance-sheet taper plan - This will be laid out in a separate document or at the press conference. As for the BoJ, "With little change to BOJ policy amid the still ‘no-flation’ backdrop and given our expectation for a final FOMC hike in December, we see USD/JPY peaking at 114 in September. Thereafter, a trend back to 106 by end-2020 is forecast," the analysts at Westpac argued.USD/JPY levels"USD/JPY is neutralising near term. It is possible that will have to allow for a deeper retracement to the 55 day ma and the 2 month uptrend at 110.08/110.13, which should hold for an upside bias to be preserved," analysts at Commerzbank argued, adding, "But we suspect that it is trying to reassert its up move sooner. Immediate resistance is 112.23, the 6 th December low, the 112.43 55 quarter moving average and recent high at 113.71. We have a 5 month resistance line also at 113.08."  

GBP/JPY daily chart GBP/JPY is trading above its main simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a bullish bias.   GBP/JPY 4-hour chart GBP/J

GBP/JPY daily chartGBP/JPY is trading above its main simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a bullish bias. GBP/JPY 4-hour chartGBP/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term. GBP/JPY 30-minute chartGBP/JPY is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the short-term.A break below 147.20 can lead to 145.20 support.Resistance is at 148.00 figure and 148.60 level. 
Additional key levels
GBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 147.29
    Today Daily change: -88 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.59%
    Today Daily Open: 148.17
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.25
    Daily SMA50: 143.48
    Daily SMA100: 143.55
    Daily SMA200: 144.67
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 148.39
    Previous Daily Low: 147.43
    Previous Weekly High: 148.88
    Previous Weekly Low: 143.72
    Previous Monthly High: 148.28
    Previous Monthly Low: 141.01
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 148.02
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 147.8
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 147.6
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 147.04
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 146.64
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 148.56
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 148.96
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 149.52  

United States 6-Month Bill Auction declined to 2.45% from previous 2.455%

United States 3-Month Bill Auction up to 2.41% from previous 2.405%

"GDP growth during the four quarters of 2018 was the fastest since 2005. This Administration is the first on record to have experienced economic growt

"GDP growth during the four quarters of 2018 was the fastest since 2005. This Administration is the first on record to have experienced economic growth that meets or exceeds its own forecasts in each of its first two years in office. GROWTH is beating MARKET EXPECTATIONS!," U.S. President Donald Trump recently tweeted out. There was no market reaction to Trump's remarks and major equity indexes in the U.S. were trading mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average erasing 0.08% on the day, the S&P 50 500 adding 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite staying flat at 7,305 points.

Commenting on House Speaker's statement, British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman said they were not in a position to comment on his remarks. "W

Commenting on House Speaker's statement, British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman said they were not in a position to comment on his remarks. "We are not in a place to discuss motion and timing for another Brexit vote. Discussions with DUP are ongoing," the spokesman further added.

The EUR/GBP pair advanced to its highest level in five days at 0.8595 in the last hour as the GBP came under heavy selling pressure following the late

Pound sterling comes under heavy selling pressure on latest Brexit headlines.UK House Speaker says there won't be a third vote on the deal if it's the same.Trade surplus widens more than expected in the eurozone.The EUR/GBP pair advanced to its highest level in five days at 0.8595 in the last hour as the GBP came under heavy selling pressure following the latest developments surrounding the third meaningful vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.8580, rising 0.7% on a daily basis. Addressing the House of Commons, Speaker John Simon Bercow explained that lawmakers had expressed concerns about being asked to vote on PM May's Brexit deal more than once and said that if the deal that the PM brings is the same as the previous one, there won't be another meaningful vote. This development also makes it difficult for the UK to ask for an extension to Article 50 as the EU made it clear that they will only agree to a Brexit delay if PM May gets the support of the majority of the House on her deal. In fact, “Why should the EU27 even consider a Brexit extension this week, if the UK parliament vote on the deal is cancelled?” Verhofstadt told the Evening Standard in an interview earlier today. “I will keep saying this; it is time for country to come before party. A minority of Right-wing populists cannot be allowed to drive European citizens and businesses off a cliff,” Verhofstadt added. Meanwhile, the Eurostat today reported that the trade surplus (seasonally adjusted) rose to €17 billion in January from €16 billion in December and beat the market expectation of €13.2 billion.Key technical levelsEUR/GBP Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.861
    Daily SMA50: 0.8728
    Daily SMA100: 0.8816
    Daily SMA200: 0.885
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.8576
    Previous Daily Low: 0.8509
    Previous Weekly High: 0.8678
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.847
    Previous Monthly High: 0.8842
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.8529
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8535
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.855
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8496
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8469
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8429
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8563
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8603
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.863  

The USD/CAD pair dropped earlier today to test the 1.3300 area but failed to break lower and the Loonie lost momentum. It bounced to the upside and re

US dollar recovers ground against majors during the American session. USD/CAD rebounds despite higher crude oil prices. The USD/CAD pair dropped earlier today to test the 1.3300 area but failed to break lower and the Loonie lost momentum. It bounced to the upside and recently, amid a recovery of the greenback across the board, climbed to 1.3358, hitting a fresh daily high.  As of writing was trading at 1.3345, around the same levels it closed on Friday. The pair continues to move sideways, holding above 1.3300 and being unable to consolidate on top of 1.3350.  Risk aversion boosted modestly the demand for the US dollar and the yen over the last hours. The USD/CAD moved to the upside despite higher crude oil price. The WTI was up 0.80%, hovering around $59.00, after reaching earlier today the highest level in four months. Levels to watch If the pair manages to hold on top of 1.3350 the greenback will likely gain strength. The next resistance levels might be located at 1.3370 and above 1.3390 (Mar 8 low). On the flip side, the immediate support is the 20-hour moving average at 1.3325, followed by the 1.3300 zone (Mar 18 low) and 1.3285 (last week low). 

Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index held steady at 62 in March, as builders’ assessment of both present a

Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index held steady at 62 in March, as builders’ assessment of both present and prospective sales rose. They also noted that expectations for future sales have increased.Key Quotes: “Builder sentiment has rebounded from the lows hit late last year, as builders are balancing optimism with pragmatism. Homebuilders are optimistic headed into the spring selling season but are also being pragmatic in recognizing the housing market still faces a significant affordability issue.” “Builders noted that demand for lower-priced homes remains very strong, but such homes are in short supply and buildable lots remain scarce.” “Expectations for single-family sales over the next 6 months rose 3 points to 71 in March and are up 10 points since their December low.”
 
UK Parliament Speaker John Bercow says the government may not bring the Brexit deal to another vote unless there is a change.  GBP/USD is falling below 1.3200, the lowest since March 13th. more to come

Reporting on the latest political developments in the UK, "It is now almost 100% certain that there will be no deal between the DUP and the government

Reporting on the latest political developments in the UK, "It is now almost 100% certain that there will be no deal between the DUP and the government this week, and therefore - as I said on Saturday - Theresa May will not risk third meaningful vote this week," ITV's political editor Robert Peston tweeted out recently. On a similar note, "DUP sources not sounding particularly hopeful of breakthrough. Which means not looking hugely likely there’ll be a Meaningful Vote 3 this week," ITV's Paul Brand further added. With the initial market reaction, the GBP/USD pair slumped to a daily low of 1.3210 and was last seen trading at 1.3227, losing 0.47% on a daily basis.

USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY is trading above its main simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a bullish bias.   USD/JPY 4-hour chart USD/J

USD/JPY daily chartUSD/JPY is trading above its main simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a bullish bias. USD/JPY 4-hour chartUSD/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term. USD/JPY 30-minute chartUSD/JPY is trading below the 100 SMA suggesting weakness.A break below 111.50 can lead to 113.30 key support followed by 110.90 level. Key resistance is at 111.65 followed by 111.90 level.    Additional key levelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 111.55
    Today Daily change: 7 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 111.48
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 111.22
    Daily SMA50: 110.16
    Daily SMA100: 111.3
    Daily SMA200: 111.44
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 111.9
    Previous Daily Low: 111.38
    Previous Weekly High: 111.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 110.88
    Previous Monthly High: 111.5
    Previous Monthly Low: 108.73
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 111.58
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 111.7
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 111.27
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 111.06
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 110.75
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 111.79
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 112.11
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 112.32  

Following a drop below the $1300 mark earlier in the day, the XAU/USD pair reversed its course and advanced to a daily high of $1306.70. With the trad

Wall Street posts modest gains in early trade.US Dolar Index turns flat near 96.50.Following a drop below the $1300 mark earlier in the day, the XAU/USD pair reversed its course and advanced to a daily high of $1306.70. With the trading action turning subdued amid a lack of fundamental drivers in the second half of the day, the pair started to move sideways in the upper half of its daily range and was last seen trading at $1305.50, adding 0.25% on a daily basis. The broad USD weakness in the first half of the day helped the pair gain traction. After losing nearly 1% last week, the US Dollar Index edged down to its weakest level in two weeks. However, with investors not looking to make large bets ahead of this week's critical FOMC meeting, the DXY retraced its daily drop and was last seen flat on the day at 96.50. Meanwhile, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day a little above last week's closing levels but couldn't gather enough momentum to reflect positive market sentiment as stock markets are also focused on the Fed's decisions. “Citi analysts expect the Fed to change the median “dot” to indicate one hike only in 2019 but with hawkish risks that it keeps them unchanged at two,” Citibank analysts said in a recently published article. “End of balance sheet reduction may also be announced and the meeting is also likely to see changes to the Fed’s assessment of the US economy.”Technical levels to consider 

GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). GBP/USD 4-hour chart GBP/USD is tradin

GBP/USD daily chartGBP/USD is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
GBP/USD 4-hour chartGBP/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.
GBP/USD 30-minute chartGBP/USD is trading between the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting a consolidation phase.A break below 1.3200 can lead to 1.3150 and 1.3060 support. To the upside, resistances are at 1.3300, 1.3340 and 1.3400 figure.
Additional key levelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3242
    Today Daily change: -52 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.39%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3294
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3149
    Daily SMA50: 1.3024
    Daily SMA100: 1.2899
    Daily SMA200: 1.2982
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3302
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3203
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3384
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.296
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3351
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2773
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3241
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3231
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3168
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3133
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.333
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3365
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3428  

After moving to session tops in the 1.1360 region, EUR/USD faced some selling pressure and has now receded to the 1.1345/40 band. EUR/USD faltered ar

The pair stays positive in the mid-1.1300s.DXY gathers some traction and rebounds to 96.50.NAHB index came in at 62 in March.After moving to session tops in the 1.1360 region, EUR/USD faced some selling pressure and has now receded to the 1.1345/40 band.EUR/USD faltered around the 55-day SMAThe pair keeps the move north unabated so far today, although it faced a strong hurdle in the 1.1360 region earlier in the day, where coincide the 55-day and 100-day SMAs. No news from the US-China trade front and just a few headlines from the Brexit negotiations left the risk-appetite trends within the recent range, while market participants commenced to shift their focus to the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wednesday). In this regard, consensus among traders keeps pointing to a dovish message from the Committee, with speculations now signalling one rate hike this year vs. previous views of two rate hikes. In the data space, the US NAHB index came in below forecasts at 62 for the month of March ahead of tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and the broader Euroland.What to look for around EURMarket participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price action in the near term. In the longer run, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2019. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.16% at 1.1342 facing the next hurdle at 1.1365 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (high Feb.14) and finally 1.1484 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1286 (10-day SMA) would target 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

   •  Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the GBP.    •  Investors remain sceptic over May’s ability to gather enough support.

   •  Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the GBP.
   •  Investors remain sceptic over May’s ability to gather enough support.
The GBP/USD pair's attempted intraday bounce ran out of steam near the 1.3275 region, with bears now eyeing a move back towards the 1.3200 round figure mark.  The British Pound came under some renewed selling pressure at the start of a new trading week amid scepticism over the UK PM Theresa May's ability to gather enough support of the third meaningful vote. The view was further reinforced by Eurosceptic UK lawmaker John Redwood's remarks, saying that there are a lot of people still opposed to May's deal and go beyond the European Research Group (ERG).  Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden fall over the past couple of hours came in reaction to European Parliament's Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt's comments, saying that the EU may not grant the extension to Article 50 if May fails to get the majority of lawmakers to back her deal. Hence, the key focal point for GBP traders will be on the next meaningful vote, possibly on Wednesday, which if fails might force the government to request a longer extension, as against May's preference to have a short extension, and eventually prolong Brexit uncertainties.  The already weaker pair was further pressurized by a modest US Dollar rebound during the early North-American session, through lacked any strong follow-through amid a subdued action around the US Treasury bond yields and might help limit deeper losses.Technical levels to watchGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3228
    Today Daily change: -66 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.50%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3294
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3149
    Daily SMA50: 1.3024
    Daily SMA100: 1.2899
    Daily SMA200: 1.2982
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3302
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3203
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3384
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.296
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3351
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2773
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3241
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3231
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3168
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3133
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.333
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3365
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3428  

According to The Guardian's live politics blog, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that there won't be a Brexit vote this week unless it has 'pro

According to The Guardian's live politics blog, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that there won't be a Brexit vote this week unless it has 'prospect of success'.  Meanwhile, "Spent the morning discussing Brexit with Foreign Ministers in Brussels. General curiosity and concern about Brexit votes in Parliament. Like us though they want it resolved and fear Brexit paralysis," British Foreign Minister Hunt recently tweeted out.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, has reverted the earlier pessimism and is now retesting th

The index returns to the positive ground above 96.50.Yields of the US 10-year note clinched tops above 2.61%.NAHB index came in at 62 in March, missing estimates.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, has reverted the earlier pessimism and is now retesting the 96.50/60 band.US Dollar Index looks to risk trends, dataThe index managed to regain some composure in the area of session lows around 96.40, although a catalyst for a more serious bullish attempt still remains absent for the time being. Easing sentiment in the risk-associated complex is now lending some extra support to the buck, sponsoring the rebound from daily lows, while the US-China trade dispute and Brexit negotiations remain the key drivers for the near term price action in the global markets. In the US data space, the NAHB index came in at 62 for the month of March, a tad below estimates and unchanged from the February reading. Moving forward, the FOMC meeting will take centre stage later in the week amidst expectations of a dovish message from the Committee.What to look for around USDThe optimism around a positive outcome in the US-China trade front faded somewhat in past days, although investors seem hopeful of a final agreement at the end of the day. On another front, US inflation seems to be losing some traction while activity remains strong, adding to the ongoing debate on whether the Fed should re-assess its next steps of its monetary policy, particularly regarding rate hikes. The occasional resumption of the upside in the buck, however, carries the potential to spark fresh bouts of criticism from President Trump to both the Fed’s policy and the level of the currency.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 96.50 facing the resistance at 96.65 (10-day SMA) seconded by 96.88 (10-day SMA) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7). On the flip side, a breach of 96.38 (low Mar.18) would open the door to 96.34 (55-day SMA) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28).

Major equity indexes in the United States started the week modestly higher on Monday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.06% whi

Major equity indexes in the United States started the week modestly higher on Monday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.06% while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were both adding 0.3% on the day. Despite this positive start, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is up nearly 3% on the day to point out to a weak risk-appetite. Among the 11 S&P 500 major sectors, financials is adding around 1% to lead the gains supported by the recovery seen in the Treasury bond yields while energy rises to 0.9%. On the other hand, communication services is down 0.5% on the day. Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcements, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines. "We suspect that with downside risks to activity overseas remaining on the radar, there will be a small downward revision to the dots but that they will still imply that higher policy rates rather than lower policy rates are more likely,” Mizuho Bank analysts argue.

United States NAHB Housing Market Index registered at 62, below expectations (63) in March

Mizuho Bank analysts suggest that the focus of the markets this week is sitting squarely on 20 March FOMC meeting, wherein a no change in policy is ex

Mizuho Bank analysts suggest that the focus of the markets this week is sitting squarely on 20 March FOMC meeting, wherein a no change in policy is expected, so focus will be squarely on the press conference, new forecasts & Dot Plot.Key Quotes“A marginally firmer US dollar and a slightly higher oil prices should cancel each other out in terms of the inflation forecast. The risks to the CPI forecast are on the downside but should be modest. Despite downward revisions to growth forecasts elsewhere, the US economy is holding up quite well and the Fed’s GDP forecasts are expected to be little changed.” “Limited changes in the growth and inflation forecasts suggest limited changes in the dots. However, we suspect that with downside risks to activity overseas remaining on the radar, there will be a small downward revision to the dots but that they will still imply that higher policy rates rather than lower policy rates are more likely.”

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs). The 100 SMA is at 1.1368 and a break above it

EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs).The 100 SMA is at 1.1368 and a break above it would be seen as bullish.
EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.
EUR/USD 30-minute chartEUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum. A break above 1.1368 can lead to 1.1400 the figureTo the downside, support can be expected at 1.1330 and 1.1300 figure. Additional key levelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1346
    Today Daily change: 20 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.18%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1326
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.132
    Daily SMA50: 1.1366
    Daily SMA100: 1.1369
    Daily SMA200: 1.1487
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1346
    Previous Daily Low: 1.13
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1346
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1222
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1489
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1234
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1317
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1302
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1278
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1256
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1348
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1369
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1393  

The NZD/USD pair started the week on a strong footing and advanced to its highest level since late February at 0.6874 before losing its traction in th

US Dollar Index lifeless around mid-96s.NZIER lowers New Zealand’s 2019 GDP growth forecast.NZ GDP data and FOMC meeting will highlight this week.The NZD/USD pair started the week on a strong footing and advanced to its highest level since late February at 0.6874 before losing its traction in the last couple of hours. As of writing, the pair was up 0.25% on a daily basis at 0.6860. Although the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) in its latest publication painted a gloomy picture with regards to New Zealand's economic outlook, the fact that the NZIER revised its NZD exchange rate expectation higher helped the kiwi. The New Zealand dollar TWI - trade-weighted index - has been revised higher throughout the projection period, reflecting the increased yield appeal of the NZD," the NZIER noted. Moreover, the pair took advantage of the broad-based USD weakness and didn't have a hard time pushing higher.  Meanwhile, the modest recovery witnessed in the 10-year T-bond yield allowed the US Dollar Index to limit its losses during the European session and forced the pair to start erasing its gains. The DXY, which slumped to a 2-week low of 96.38 earlier today, was last seen flat on the day at 96.50. Later this week, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the GDP data from New Zealand on Thursday will be watched closely by the market participants.Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the initial resistance at 0.6875 (daily high) ahead of 0.6940 (Jan. 31 low) and 0.7000 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are located at 0.6825 (50-DMA), 0.6800 (psychological level/100-DMA) and 0.6745 (Mar. 7 low).

The pair once again showed some resilience at lower levels and managed to recover the early lost ground to the 1.3200 mark, rather has turned positive

The pair once again showed some resilience at lower levels and managed to recover the early lost ground to the 1.3300 mark, rather has turned positive for the third consecutive session.The mentioned support marks a descending trend-line resistance break-point and also coincides with 100-day SMA and should now act as a key pivotal point for the pair's near-term trajectory.Technical indicators on the daily chart point to a slight positive bias but are yet to gain any meaningful traction on hourly charts and warrant caution before placing any aggressive bullish bets.Hence, it would prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for a move beyond the 1.3370 immediate resistance towards reclaiming the 1.3400 round figure mark.USD/CAD daily chartUSD/CAD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3343
    Today Daily change %: 0.05%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3336
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3282
    Daily SMA50: 1.3262
    Daily SMA100: 1.3302
    Daily SMA200: 1.3187
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3374
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3289
    Previous Weekly High: 1.344
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.3287
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3341
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.3069
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3341
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3322
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3292
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3249
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3208
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3376
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3417
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.346  

Citibank analysts point out that this week sees the March FOMC meeting and is going to be the key economic event for the markets. Key Quotes “Citi a

Citibank analysts point out that this week sees the March FOMC meeting and is going to be the key economic event for the markets.Key Quotes“Citi analysts expect the Fed to change the median “dot” to indicate one hike only in 2019 but with hawkish risks that it keeps them unchanged at two.” “End of balance sheet reduction may also be announced and the meeting is also likely to see changes to the Fed’s assessment of the US economy.”

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, during a scheduled speech in Madrid, said this Monday that the incoming Euro-area data have continued to be we

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, during a scheduled speech in Madrid, said this Monday that the incoming Euro-area data have continued to be weak and the economy has grown below expectations. Moderation in the pace of the Euro-area economic expansion will likely extend into the current year, de Guindos added further.Additional quotes:   •  The effects of the idiosyncratic factors currently weighing on economic growth are expected to unwind, albeit at a slower pace than initially foreseen.
   •  Supportive factors continue to be in place that will lift inflation above this year's muted level in the more medium-term.
   •  Expect labour costs to trickle through to wages, prices. 
   •  ECB's new measures will add to the accommodative stance.

OCBC Bank analysts suggest that the political risks may come to a head this week with risks increasingly binary for the GBP/USD pair. Key Quotes “Sh

OCBC Bank analysts suggest that the political risks may come to a head this week with risks increasingly binary for the GBP/USD pair.Key Quotes“Short term implied valuations for GBP/USD have ticked higher slightly but it remains grossly overbought. Thus, despite a supportive technical backdrop, expect it to stall at 1.3400.”

Prices of the barrel of the West Texas Intermediate are inching higher at the beginning of the week, trading at shouting distance from YTD peaks just

Prices of the barrel of WTI are inching higher beyond $58.00.OPEC+ will decide on June on an extension of output cuts.US oil rig count dropped by 1 last week.Prices of the barrel of the West Texas Intermediate are inching higher at the beginning of the week, trading at shouting distance from YTD peaks just below the $59.00 mark.WTI supported by OPEC+ headlines, suppliesPrices of the WTI have moved closer to the $59.00 mark per barrel in recent sessions on the back of the ongoing turmoil in Venezuela and positive reports from US supplies and drilling activity. In fact, the EIA reported last Wednesday US crude oil supplies dropped more than expected during the previous week along with a downtick in oil output, while driller Baker Hughes said the US active oil rigs decreased for yet another week on Friday. Also sustaining the better mood in prices, OPEC+ officials said the cartel could announce an extension of the ongoing output cut agreement at the June meeting.What to look for around WTICrude oil is navigating levels last seen in mid-November 2018 further north of the $58.00 mark per barrel, always bolstered by a softer buck and a generalized better tone in the risk-associated complex. The underlying bullish view in crude oil remains firm, in the meantime, on the back of the so-called ‘Saudi put’, tight conditions in the US markets (amidst US net imports in historic low levels and the rising activity in refiners ahead of the summer session), the current OPEC+ agreement to cut oil output and ongoing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela crude oil exports. However, uncertainty around the US-China trade dispute (as per recent events) remains a threat to this view and could undermine further bullish attempts.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.48% at $58.62 and a breakout of $58.86 (2019 high Mar.15) would aim for $59.63 (50% Fibo of the October-December drop) and finally $61.93 (200-day SMA). On the downside, the next support emerges at $57.67 (low Mar.15) seconded by $57.14 (10-day SMA) and finally $54.37 (low Mar.8).

   •  After Friday's sharp intraday pull-back, the cross regained positive traction on the first trading day of the week and is now looking to extend

   •  After Friday's sharp intraday pull-back, the cross regained positive traction on the first trading day of the week and is now looking to extend the momentum beyond 200-hour SMA.   •  The fact that the cross managed to find acceptance above 100-hour SMA and 50% Fibo. level of the 0.8655-0.8471 slide turned out to be a key trigger for intraday bullish traders.    •  Bullish oscillators on the 1-hourly chart remained supportive of the up-move but are gradually moving into slightly overbought territory and might keep a lid on further gains.   •  Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart are yet to catch up with the positive momentum and further warrant caution before placing any aggressive near-term bullish bets.   •  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond 61.8% Fibo. level for a follow-through move beyond the 0.8600 handle towards testing the 0.8630-35 supply zone. EUR/GBP 1-hourly chartEUR/GBP Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.8568
    Today Daily change %: 0.54%
    Today Daily Open: 0.8522
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.861
    Daily SMA50: 0.8728
    Daily SMA100: 0.8816
    Daily SMA200: 0.885
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.8576
    Previous Daily Low: 0.8509
    Previous Weekly High: 0.8678
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.847
    Previous Monthly High: 0.8842
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.8529
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8535
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.855
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8496
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8469
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8429
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8563
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8603
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.863  

Russia Industrial Output above forecasts (1.5%) in February: Actual (4.1%)

In an interview with the Standard, European Parliament's Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt argued that the EU may not grant the extension to Article

In an interview with the Standard, European Parliament's Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt argued that the EU may not grant the extension to Article 50 if British Prime Minister Theresa May were to fail to get the majority of lawmakers to back her deal. “Why should the EU27 even consider a Brexit extension this week, if the UK parliament vote on the deal is cancelled?” Verhofstadt questioned and added: “I will keep saying this; it is time for country to come before party. A minority of Right-wing populists cannot be allowed to drive European citizens and businesses off a cliff.”

The USD/CHF pair, which lost more than 50 pips last week, extended its slide on Monday and tested the critical parity mark for the first time since ea

Modest USD weakness on Monday weighs on the pair.Wall Street looks to open the day flat.The USD/CHF pair, which lost more than 50 pips last week, extended its slide on Monday and tested the critical parity mark for the first time since early March. At the moment, the pair is down 0.1% on a daily basis at 1.0007. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data releases today, the bearish pressure on the USD remained intact on Monday and allowed the pair to push lower with the US Dollar Index slumping to its lowest level in two weeks at 96.38. Ahead of the NAHB Housing Market Index, which is unlikely to trigger a meaningful market reaction, the DXY is losing 0.06% on the day at 96.45. The next significant driver for the greenback will be this Wednesday's FOMC statement, which will include the updated dot plot. Previewing the event, "We expect Fed to lower its 'dot' signal further to just one rate hike in 2019 (down from two). We expect them to be revised lower also for 2020 and 2021 and we will not be surprised if the Fed signals one and done," Danske Bank analysts argued.  In the next hour, markets will be paying attention to Wall Street's opening to see if the risk perception can be a catalyst. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 Futures is up only 0.08% on the day, suggesting that stocks are likely to stay quiet on Monday.Key technical levelsUSD/CHF Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0031
    Daily SMA50: 0.9979
    Daily SMA100: 0.9971
    Daily SMA200: 0.992
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.0053
    Previous Daily Low: 1.001
    Previous Weekly High: 1.012
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.001
    Previous Monthly High: 1.01
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.9921
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0026
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0037
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0003
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.9985
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.996
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0046
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0071
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0089    

In view of analysts at National Bank Financial, for the Canadian markets, lot of attention will be on February’s consumer price index. Key Quotes “T

In view of analysts at National Bank Financial, for the Canadian markets, lot of attention will be on February’s consumer price index.Key Quotes“The first rise in gasoline prices in the last seven months may have led the headline price index to rise 0.5% (not seasonally adjusted). This would allow the annual inflation rate to drop 1 tick to 1.3%. The annual rate of CPI-common, meanwhile, may have declined one tick to 1.8%.” “In other news, strong auto sales in January may have translated into the first expansion of headline retail sales in three months. Ex-auto sales, for their part, will probably come in a tad weaker due to falling pump prices which may have weighed on gasoline station receipts.” “We’ll also keep an eye on the release of several other indicators for January including wholesale trade sales and international securities transactions. Finally, the federal government will present its budget on Tuesday.”

According to analysts at Westpac, the market focus this week will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which is again likely to emphasis a need for patienc

According to analysts at Westpac, the market focus this week will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which is again likely to emphasis a need for patience.Key Quotes“Of key interest will be the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including revisions to key forecasts, as well as any discussion around balance sheet normalisation.” “The consensus is that the Fed Funds “dots” will be lower, but the key question is how far will they fall? The existing median for two hikes this year should likely fall to one, consistent with Westpac’s view. Two of seventeen dots expect no hikes this year, but with the Fed in data dependent mode and key communications underscoring the need for patience, it would be no surprise if this number was to jump significantly from two.” “In addition, we will be very interested in the long run projection. It is likely to fall to 2.5%, which will provide some scope for a further fall in 10yr yields, although considering our expectation that yields should peak at or around the Fed Funds peak, an extended rally under that scenario should be short-lived. The more bullish scenario for bonds would be if the Fed were to indicate a willingness to cut rates near term.”

The leg lower in the greenback is allowing EUR/USD to extend the recovery from post-ECB lows near 1.1180 to today’s tops around 1.1360. EUR/USD looks

The pair’s recovery falters around the 1.1360 region.The greenback remains on the defensive near 96.40.ZEW survey due tomorrow ahead of EU Summit on Thursday.The leg lower in the greenback is allowing EUR/USD to extend the recovery from post-ECB lows near 1.1180 to today’s tops around 1.1360.EUR/USD looks to data, risk trends, FOMCSpot is advancing for the second consecutive week so far on Monday, bolstered by the solid rebound in the sentiment surrounding the riskier assets and re-shifting its focus to the 1.1400 handle and above, levels last seen in late February. In the meantime, there is no fresh news on the US-China trade front following last week’s postponement of the trump-Xi meeting for the month of April, while latest headlines around Brexit tied the likeliness of another meaningful vote this week to an agreement between the government and the DUP. In the data space, the German/EMU ZEW survey is due tomorrow ahead of the FOMC meeting expected on Wednesday and the EU Leaders Summit on Thursday.What to look for around EURMarket participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price action in the near term. In the longer run, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2019. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.25% at 1.1352 facing the next hurdle at 1.1365 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (high Feb.14) and finally 1.1484 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1286 (10-day SMA) would target 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities climbed from previous $-18.96B to $28.4B in January

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities declined to $-8.8B in January from previous $-0.43B

   •  The prevalent USD selling bias helped build on last week’s goodish up-move.    •  Surging iron ore prices further underpinned Aussie and remaine

   •  The prevalent USD selling bias helped build on last week’s goodish up-move.
   •  Surging iron ore prices further underpinned Aussie and remained supportive.
   •  Lack of progress in US-China trade talks capping ahead of Tuesday’s RBA minutes.
The AUD/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the mid-European session, albeit has retreated few pips from over two-week tops set earlier today. The pair built on last week's goodish up-move and caught some aggressive bids at the start of a new trading week amid a follow-through US Dollar selling bias. Despite a goodish rebound in the US Treasury bond yields, the USD bulls held on the defensive in wake of the recent disappointing US economic data and turned out to be one of the key factors driving the pair higher. Adding to this, improving global risk sentiment further dented the greenback's relative safe-haven status and drove flows towards perceived riskier currencies. This coupled with surging iron ore prices provided an additional boost to the commodity-linked Aussie and remained supportive of the pair's positive move for the sixth session in the previous seven. However, a lack of visible progress in the US-China trade talks and the recent softness in Chinese manufacturing data failed to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy Australian Dollar and kept a lid on any strong follow-through/runaway rally for the major.  In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the US, the pair seems more likely to enter a bullish consolidation phase as the focus now shifts to the release of minutes from the latest RBA monetary policy meeting, which might provide some meaningful impetus for the major.Technical levels to watchValeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own American Chief Analyst writes: “The 4 hours chart shows that the pair was unable to surpass its 200 SMA, but also that it remains above the 20 and 100 SMA, with the shortest maintaining its upward strength. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart, hold in positive ground, with the Momentum advancing but the RSI retreating, anyway keeping the risk skewed to the upside. Further gains seem likely on a break above the daily high, yet sustainable progress is not yet clear.”
 

British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman recently crossed the wires saying that the PM had made it clear that her preference was to have a short

British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman recently crossed the wires saying that the PM had made it clear that her preference was to have a short extension to Article 50.Key quotes (via Reuters)Government has not stepped up preparations for European elections. Asked whether conservative lawmakers have called on pm to stand down to get their support, spokesman cites she is focused on having conversations with MPs and the DUP to get the vote through. 

   •  After an Asian session dip to $1298, the precious metal regained positive traction and was seen building on Friday's goodish bounce from 200-hou

   •  After an Asian session dip to $1298, the precious metal regained positive traction and was seen building on Friday's goodish bounce from 200-hour SMA.    •  Currently hovering around 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1280-$1313 recent up-move, bullish oscillators on the 1-hourly chart support prospects for further gains.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on 4-hourly/daily charts are also catching up with the positive momentum and add credence to the constructive set-up.   •  Hence, any dips to the $1300 psychological mark might be seen as a buying opportunity for a move back towards the recent swing highs, around the $1313 region.Gold 1-hourly chartXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1305.23
    Today Daily change %: 0.24%
    Today Daily Open: 1302.16
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1310
    Daily SMA50: 1304.05
    Daily SMA100: 1271.46
    Daily SMA200: 1239.2
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1306.45
    Previous Daily Low: 1294.1
    Previous Weekly High: 1313.3
    Previous Weekly Low: 1290.6
    Previous Monthly High: 1346.85
    Previous Monthly Low: 1300.1
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1301.73
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1298.82
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1295.35
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1288.55
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1283
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1307.7
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1313.25
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1320.05  

The USD/CAD pair slumped to a daily low near 1.3300 in the early European morning and staged a recovery in the last couple of hours. As of writing, th

WTI preserves small daily gains above $58.Saudi's Al-Falih says 100% compliance with output cuts will continue at least for 4 months.US Dollar Index stays in red below 96.50.The USD/CAD pair slumped to a daily low near 1.3300 in the early European morning and staged a recovery in the last couple of hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3320, losing 0.1% on a daily basis. The subdued action in the FX markets on Monday doesn't allow major pairs to make decisive moves in any direction. Despite some comments from Saudi oil minister Al-Falih in the last hour, crude oil continues to fluctuate in its daily range and doesn't provide a directional clue to the commodity-sensitive loonie. Khalid Al-Falih told reporters that he was confident about OPEC+ clinging to 100% compliance with the output cut agreement for the next four months. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 20 cents on the day at $58.55. On the other hand, after dropping around 1% last week, the US Dollar Index started the week under a modest bearish pressure as investors refrain from making large bets ahead of this week's critical FOMC meeting. At the moment, the DXY is losing 0.08% on the day at 96.40. Previewing the Fed event, "The Fed’s narrative on interest rates has been clear since the dovish pivot at the January FOMC meeting: monetary policy is currently in a good place, and the FOMC will remain patient in assessing the need for any further adjustments to the policy stance,” the HSBC analysts said in a recently published article.Key technical levelsUSD/CAD Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3282
    Daily SMA50: 1.3262
    Daily SMA100: 1.3302
    Daily SMA200: 1.3187
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3374
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3289
    Previous Weekly High: 1.344
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.3287
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3341
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.3069
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3341
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3322
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3292
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3249
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3208
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3376
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3417
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.346    

HSBC analysts suggest that the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.15 level after it rebounded from a 21-month low, just below 1.12 following soft

HSBC analysts suggest that the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.15 level after it rebounded from a 21-month low, just below 1.12 following soft US inflation data that raised the prospects of a prolonged Fed pause.Key Quotes“Technical charts suggest a break of 1.1420 could lead to a test of the next key resistance of 1.15. Strong support is at around 1.12.”

Deutsche Bank analysis team is expecting no change in policy from the US Fed in March and suggests that the meeting should reinforce the message that

Deutsche Bank analysis team is expecting no change in policy from the US Fed in March and suggests that the meeting should reinforce the message that the bank will remain patient for now.Key Quotes“Our economists believe that there are two key topics that market participants should focus on.” “The first is any signals about the timeline for ending the Fed’s balance sheet unwind and the second is any insights into the conditions needed to drop their patient guidance and possibly raise rates again later in 2019.” “On the former, while an announcement of the date for stabilising the SOMA portfolio is possible next week, we now think it is more likely at the May FOMC meeting.” “On the latter, Powell should maintain significant flexibility while likely reiterating that a dissipation of the crosscurrents, evidence of continued above-potential growth, & higher inflation are all likely preconditions for another rate increase this cycle.”

The continuation of the better mood around the single currency is now pushing EUR/JPY to fresh multi-day peaks in the 126.70 region. EUR/JPY now targ

The cross advances further on a better mood in EUR.Favourable risk appetite trends bolster the up move.Brexit, US-China trade, keep driving the sentiment in markets.The continuation of the better mood around the single currency is now pushing EUR/JPY to fresh multi-day peaks in the 126.70 region.EUR/JPY now targets 127.50The cross is prolonging its rally from monthly lows near 124.30 seen earlier in the month, up more than 2 cents already on the back of a renewed optimism in the riskier assets. The better mood in the risk-complex has been hurting the demand for the safe haven JPY, motivating the cross to shift its focus to the area of YTD peaks in the mid-127.00s (March 1). In the docket, the BoJ will release its minutes from the last meeting on Wednesday seconded by the EU Leaders Summit. Previously, the German/EMU ZEW survey is expected on Tuesday.EUR/JPY relevant levelsAt the moment the cross is gaining 0.28% at 126.58 facing the next up barrier at 126.62 (high Mar.18) seconded by 127.50 (2019 high Mar.1) and finally 128.00 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 125.91 (21-day SMA) would aim for 124.27 (low Mar.8) and then 123.39 (low Jan.15).

HSBC analysts suggest that the FOMC is expected to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at the March meeting. Key Quotes “Th

HSBC analysts suggest that the FOMC is expected to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at the March meeting.Key Quotes“The Fed’s narrative on interest rates has been clear since the dovish pivot at the January FOMC meeting: monetary policy is currently in a good place, and the FOMC will remain patient in assessing the need for any further adjustments to the policy stance.” “The March FOMC meeting is therefore likely to reinforce this. The Summary of Economic Projections will be released at the same time and the median “dots” could show that further   rate hikes are likely, although less so than in December.”

   •  Faces rejection near 1.3300 mark amid uncertainty over Article 50 extension.    •  Hammond’s comments add to the GBP selling bias and exert addi

   •  Faces rejection near 1.3300 mark amid uncertainty over Article 50 extension.
   •  Hammond’s comments add to the GBP selling bias and exert additional pressure.
   •  The downside remains limited ahead of this week’s (possible) meaningful vote.
The GBP/USD pair maintained its heavily offered tone through the mid-European session, albeit has managed to rebound around 35-40 pips from daily lows set in the last hour. The pair failed to capitalize on Friday's goodish up-move and faced rejection near the 1.3300 handle amid some renewed selling pressure surrounding the British Pound in wake of not so optimistic comments by the UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond. In an interview with BBC on Sunday, Hammond was noted saying that the government will bring the Brexit deal back for a meaningful vote only if we're confident enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to get it through the Parliament. Hence, the key focal point for GBP traders will be on the UK PM Theresa May ability to gather enough support for the meaningful vote or, as Eurosceptic UK lawmaker John Redwood believes - there are a lot of people still opposed to May's deal and go beyond the European Research Group (ERG). It is worth reporting that if the UK parliament rejects May's Brexit deal for the third time, the government will be forced to request a longer extension, which would further prolong Brexit uncertainties and dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.  Unless there is more clarity over the duration of the Article 50 extension, the pair seems more likely to continue with its choppy trading action within a broader trading range held over the past couple of trading sessions.Technical outlookYohay Elam, FXStreet own Analyst writes: “While some of the Momentum has disappeared after the fall, the four-hour chart still shows Pound bulls are in control. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and the pair trades above both the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.” “1.3270 provided some support when the pair traded at higher ground. 1.3300 is a round number and also capped cable at the wake of the new week. 1.3350 was a high point in late February and 1.3388 was the fresh peak. Looking down, 1.3200 was the low point on Friday. 1.3110 separated ranges early in the month. 1.3070 is approximately where the 200 SMA meets the chart. 1.3010 was a swing low last week,” he added further.
 

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysts suggest that even a postponement does little to clarify the next steps and the path of least resistance to the co

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysts suggest that even a postponement does little to clarify the next steps and the path of least resistance to the conclusion of Brexit is that the UK leaves the EU with a version of the current Withdrawal Agreement in place.Key Quotes“It may well happen before the end of June. If the delay is longer, then other options have to be considered. It is likely that a majority of MPs would likely support a softer, Norway-type relationship with the EU. However, May is likely to resist this option since it would risk splitting the Conservative Party.” “If the impasse in Parliament continues, a general election or a second referendum would become more probable.” “At this point, it is possible that the UK could opt to remain within the EU. Given the uncertainty, we do not advocate taking directional views on sterling, but we remain alert to entry and exit opportunities if volatility persists. For the time being, the most sensible approach seems to be to hedge sterling's downside risks.”

In its monthly report, Germany's Bundesbank noted that the economic growth in the first quarter of the year remained subdued due to the weak industria

In its monthly report, Germany's Bundesbank noted that the economic growth in the first quarter of the year remained subdued due to the weak industrial production. "Construction boom, rise in private consumption should insulate the economy in Q1," Bundesbank added, as reported by Reuters.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih is now out on the wires, reiterating his earlier comments about staying confident that 100% compliance with the

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih is now out on the wires, reiterating his earlier comments about staying confident that 100% compliance with the output cut agreement will continue for the next four months. Key quotes (via Reuters)JMMC meeting’s date to be announced in 2 weeks time. OPEC+ needs a few months to drain excess inventory. OPEC+ JMMC most likely to meet in first half of May. Next OPEC+ meeting on June 25-26 in Vienna.

The recently published OPEC+ JMMC statement read that all countries at JMMC said that they would exceed their voluntary output adjustments in coming m

The recently published OPEC+ JMMC statement read that all countries at JMMC said that they would exceed their voluntary output adjustments in coming months. Key quotes (via Reuters)Recognized critical uncertainties in oil market. OPEC+ JMMC sees overall February output cuts conformity at 90%. Will hold next meeting in Jeddah in May.

The now softer tone in the British Pound is lifting EUR/GBP to fresh 3-day highs in the 0.8575/80 band. EUR/GBP focused on Brexit vote The European

The Sterling loses ground and pushes the cross to fresh tops.Brexit negotiations in centre stage ahead of key vote.Government in talks with DUP for support ahead of vote.The now softer tone in the British Pound is lifting EUR/GBP to fresh 3-day highs in the 0.8575/80 band.EUR/GBP focused on Brexit voteThe European cross is reverting Friday’s pullback and advances to the vicinity of the 0.8600 handle on the back of a renewed selling pressure hitting the Sterling. In fact, GBP is deflating further today after Chancellor P.Hammond said earlier in the day that there won’t be any meaningful vote later in the week if the government cannot get support from the DUP and Tory MPs. It is worth recalling that PM Theresa May called for a third meaningful vote on her plan to leave the European Union at some point this week (Wednesday?) following two defeats and after the House of Commons voted against a ‘no deal’ scenario and an extension of the Article 50 during last week. In the UK calendar, it will be a busy week for the Sterling as the labour market report is due tomorrow, inflation figures on Wednesday, Retail Sales and the BoE meeting on Thursday and Public Sector financial figures on Friday.What to look for around GBPThe Sterling is expected to remain under scrutiny this week in light of another meaningful vote on May’s UK-EU divorce plan. The House of Commons will likely vote on Wednesday although it appears to all be hinging on a potential agreement between the Government and the DUP.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is gaining 0.66% at 0.8569 and a breakout of 0.8580 (high Mar.18) would open the door to 0.8604 (21-day SMA) and finally 0.8675 (high Mar.11). On the flip side, the next support lines up at 0.8471 (2019 low Mar.13) seconded by 0.8402 (monthly low Feb.22 2017) and then 0.8382 (monthly low May 10 2017).

Citing an EU official familiar with talks, Bloomberg recently reported that the EU saw the decision on Article 50 extension as a political decision ra

Citing an EU official familiar with talks, Bloomberg recently reported that the EU saw the decision on Article 50 extension as a political decision rather than a legal one. The EU official reiterated that the EU's work on no-deal preparations was ongoing and added that the events in London would influence the Brexit debate at the EU summit.

Royal Bank of Canada analysts suggest that it looks like the euro area started 2019 the same way it ended 2018—with sub-trend growth of around 0.2%, b

Royal Bank of Canada analysts suggest that it looks like the euro area started 2019 the same way it ended 2018—with sub-trend growth of around 0.2%, but there were some signs of stability in the currency bloc’s most recent survey indicators.Key Quotes“The euro area composite PMI rose to a three-month high in February as an improving services sector more than offset further slowing in manufacturing. The latter has been weak in most major euro area economies, though decent industrial production figures in January at least suggest the sector has stopped contracting. Meanwhile, services PMIs in the largest economies are back in expansionary territory, including in Italy and France where political uncertainty and unrest weighed on activity late last year.” “So while it looks like the first quarter will be another soft one, there are at least some signs that growth is starting to improve as the year progresses. Those green shoots weren’t enough to prevent the European Central Bank from taking an axe to their GDP forecast, lowering 2019 growth to 1.1% from 1.7% previously.” “The bottom line is that the ECB is seeking to maintain highly accommodative financial conditions until there is a clear path back to their inflation target. Consistent with their guidance, our forecast now assumes gradual rate increases will be held off until 2020. The deposit rate is only seen getting back to zero by the end of next year.”  

After closing the previous week with a modest 40-pip gain, the USD/JPY started the new week in a calm manner and is having a difficult time determinin

USD/JPY struggles to find direction on Monday.European stocks trade mixed.Subdued trading action is likely to continue.After closing the previous week with a modest 40-pip gain, the USD/JPY started the new week in a calm manner and is having a difficult time determining its next short-term direction. At the moment, the pair is virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 111.47. Earlier today, the data from Japan showed that the merchandise trade balance (adjusted) rose to +116.1 billion JPY from -254 billion JPY but the fact that imports declined 6.7% in the same period on a yearly basis didn't allow the market to show a positive reaction. Other data from Japan revealed that industrial production contracted by 3.4% on a monthly basis in January. On the other hand, ahead of the NA session, which won't offer any significant macroeconomic data releases from the U.S., the US Dollar Index is posting small losses below 96.50. Later this week, the FOMC's policy announcements and the updated dot plot chart will the primary catalyst for the greenback. Meanwhile, European stocks are not providing any clues regarding the markets' risk perception on Monday with the Euro Stoxx clinging to small gains and Germany's DAX posting small losses. Similarly, the S&P 500 Futures is trading flat on the day to suggest that Wall Street is likely to start the day near last week's closing levels.Technical levels to considerThe initial resistance for the pair aligns at 111.50 (200-DMA) ahead of 112 (psychological level) and 112.30 (200-WMA). On the downside, supports could be seen at 111.35 (20-DMA), 110.85 (100-DMA) and 110.50 (50-DMA).

The UK PM May’s Conservative Party MP and a member of the alternative arrangements working group, Owen Paterson, tweeted: “I and 22 other MPs have wri

The UK PM May’s Conservative Party MP and a member of the alternative arrangements working group, Owen Paterson, tweeted: “I and 22 other MPs have written to the @Telegraph today. If the UK leaves the EU as planned on March 2019, “no deal” will prove to be the precursor to a very good deal indeed.”

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is looking to extend the tepid bounce above the 58.50 level, as the broad-based US dollar weakness offers some reprieve to

Slowing demand concerns amid economic downturn negates OPEC cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. OPEC+ said to plan JMMC meeting in Riyadh in May.Looking for a strong catalyst for the next move, US weekly crude stocks reports eyed.WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is looking to extend the tepid bounce above the 58.50 level, as the broad-based US dollar weakness offers some reprieve to the oil bulls. The greenback remains broadly sold-off into rising Fed pause expectations amid weakening US fundamentals and trade uncertainty. Despite the latest leg up, markets remain skeptical about the recovery, as the recent headlines about the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting being pushed back to May continue to weigh on the investors minds. More so, mounting concerns over dwindling global economic growth and its impact on the demand for crude remains the main drag on the prices so far this Monday, outweighing the hopes of a potential supply deficit in Q1 amid deeper OPEC output cuts and the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. All eyes now remain on the US fuel stocks reports due later this week on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh direction on the prices. In the meantime, the USD dynamics and risk trends will continue to keep the traders engaged.WTI Technical LevelsOverview:
    Today Last Price: 58.59
    Today Daily change: -14 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.24%
    Today Daily Open: 58.73
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 56.98
    Daily SMA50: 54.76
    Daily SMA100: 53.64
    Daily SMA200: 61.48
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 59.25
    Previous Daily Low: 58.04
    Previous Weekly High: 59.25
    Previous Weekly Low: 56.32
    Previous Monthly High: 57.92
    Previous Monthly Low: 51.56
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 58.5
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 58.79
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 58.1
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 57.46
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 56.89
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 59.31
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 59.88
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 60.52  

These are the main highlights from the latest CFCT positioning report for the week ended on March 12. Speculators added more than 3K contracts to t

These are the main highlights from the latest CFCT positioning report for the week ended on March 12. Speculators added more than 3K contracts to their gross long positions, taking the net longs to the highest level since December 18 2018. On the other hand, speculative net shorts in EUR dropped to 2-week lows around 75.7K contracts, as market participants continued to adjust to the dovish message from the ECB at its last meeting. On the Sterling side, GBP speculative net shorts climbed a tad to 2-week highs amidst a cautious tone ahead of the key crucial votes.

European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. registered at €17B above expectations (€13.2B) in January

European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €1.5B above expectations (€-8B) in January

   •  The cross came under some renewed selling pressure on Monday and dropped to the lower end of a near three-day-old trading range during the early

   •  The cross came under some renewed selling pressure on Monday and dropped to the lower end of a near three-day-old trading range during the early European session.   •  The range bounce price-action constituted to the formation of a rectangle, which given the recent up-move might be categorized as bullish continuation chart pattern.    •  Moreover, the fact that the cross remains above important intraday moving averages - 100 & 200-hour SMA, add credence to the near-term constructive outlook.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have been gaining negative momentum but have still managed to hold in the bullish territory on 4-hourly/daily charts.   •  Hence, it would now be interesting to see if the cross is able to defend the mentioned rectangle support or the current pull-back marks the end of the recent bullish move.GBP/JPY 1-hourly chartGBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 147.71
    Today Daily change: -46 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.31%
    Today Daily Open: 148.17
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.25
    Daily SMA50: 143.48
    Daily SMA100: 143.55
    Daily SMA200: 144.67
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 148.39
    Previous Daily Low: 147.43
    Previous Weekly High: 148.88
    Previous Weekly Low: 143.72
    Previous Monthly High: 148.28
    Previous Monthly Low: 141.01
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 148.02
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 147.8
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 147.6
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 147.04
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 146.64
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 148.56
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 148.96
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 149.52  

Reuters quotes an OPEC source, as saying that the OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) panel recommends no meeting In April

Reuters quotes an OPEC source, as saying that the OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) panel recommends no meeting In April. The source added that the OPEC+ JMMC is said to accept Nigeria, Iraq and Kazakhstan as members. Meanwhile, Iraq Minister said that the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be in June.

The Indian National Rupee (INR) extends its run of gains against the US dollar for the tenth straight session this Monday, dragging the USD/INR cross

Surge in foreign inflows into equities, seasonal factors and broad USD weakness underpin. USD/INR breached the key 68.50 psychological support, what’s next?The Indian National Rupee (INR) extends its run of gains against the US dollar for the tenth straight session this Monday, dragging the USD/INR cross to fresh seven-month lows of 68.44. At the press time, the cross trades near 68.55, having faded the recent spike to 68.88. The Indian currency continues to benefit from the ongoing rise in the foreign investment flows into the Indian stock markets, as markets remain expectant of Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi returning to power for the second term. Further, broad-based US dollar amid increased odds of the Fed maintaining its accommodative stance on the monetary policy this week, following the recent series of downbeat US fundamentals, also collaborated to the downside bias in the USD/INR pair. The USD index trades near three-day lows of 96.40, down -0.11% so far. The seasonal “March factor also continues to remain one of the key factors behind the Rupee upsurge. According to Reuters, “… most exporters bring back their dollars to India towards the end of the fiscal year to settle their annual accounts and repayment of debts which increases inflows.”USD/INR Technical LevelsOverview:
    Today Last Price: 68.556
    Today Daily change %: -1.00%
    Today Daily Open: 69.2725
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 70.5061
    Daily SMA50: 70.803
    Daily SMA100: 71.0503
    Daily SMA200: 70.7784
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 69.671
    Previous Daily Low: 68.917
    Previous Weekly High: 70.22
    Previous Weekly Low: 68.917
    Previous Monthly High: 71.915
    Previous Monthly Low: 70.105
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 69.205
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 69.383
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 68.9027
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 68.5328
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 68.1487
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 69.6567
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 70.0408
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 70.4107  

Danske Bank analysts are expecting that the US Fed will likely keep the target range unchanged at 2.25-2.50% and make no major changes to the statemen

Danske Bank analysts are expecting that the US Fed will likely keep the target range unchanged at 2.25-2.50% and make no major changes to the statement in its forthcoming meeting this Wednesday.Key QuotesPowell & Co have emphasised that they will be " patient" in raising hikes but the question is what that means in terms of the "dots" , which are released alongside the rate decision.” “We expect Fed to lower its 'dot' signal further to just one rate hike in 2019 (down from two) . We expect them to be revised lower also for 2020 and 2021 and we will not be surprised if the Fed signals "one and done". We expect the longer-run dot is to be unchanged at 2.75%. That said, Fed has begun downplaying the importance of the dots given the increased uncertainty around the base case, so be careful putting too much weight on them going forward.” “Our current base case is two Fed hikes (in June and December) based on our overall positive economic outlook. Economic growth is strong, unemployment rate is moving lower, wage growth is moving gradually higher and risk sentiment in markets has rebounded. PCE core inflation, however, has softened in recent months. However, if the Fed confirms it has changed its reaction function by looking more at inflation expectations and less on the unemployment rate, a June hike seems less likely, as marked-based inflation expectations remain well below historical average.” “Still, markets are pricing the Fed too dovish at the moment , as they think the Fed is on hold for the rest of the year. A change in Fed's rhetoric can happen fast. A good example is the rate increase in March 2017 where the market was not expecting a rate hike until Fed signalled it three weeks in advance.” “We believe the Fed will announce it will end shrinking its balance sheet in Q4.” 

Reuters is out with the latest comments by the UK Foreign Minister Hunt, as he says what the markets already know about. Hunt noted that that risk of

Reuters is out with the latest comments by the UK Foreign Minister Hunt, as he says what the markets already know about. Hunt noted that that risk of a no deal Brexit has receded. Separately, Germany's Chancellery Chief was on the wires, via Bild, stating that the issue of delay is not uncontroversial among EU states and cannot rule out threat of Italy or another country thwarting Brexit delay.

   •  The pair faced rejection near the 1.3300 handle at the start of a new trading week and tumbled to fresh session lows, below mid-1.3200s in the l

   •  The pair faced rejection near the 1.3300 handle at the start of a new trading week and tumbled to fresh session lows, below mid-1.3200s in the last hour.   •  The pair's inability to capitalize on Friday's goodish up-move and a subsequent sharp retracement slide clearly point to persistent selling bias at higher levels.   •  An intraday dip below 50-hour SMA might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders amid a flurry of incoming negative Brexit-related headlines.   •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have been gaining negative momentum and support prospects for a further slide towards challenging 100-hour SMA.   •  However, oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts are still holding in the bullish territory, though have started losing traction, and thus, warrant some caution. GBP/USD 1-hourly chartGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3251
    Today Daily change: -43 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.32%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3294
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3149
    Daily SMA50: 1.3024
    Daily SMA100: 1.2899
    Daily SMA200: 1.2982
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3302
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3203
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3384
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.296
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3351
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2773
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3241
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3231
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3168
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3133
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.333
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3365
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3428  

SEB Bank analysts points out that the US Fed will present its first updated forecasts after its U-turn in Jan on Wednesday and will be a key event for

SEB Bank analysts points out that the US Fed will present its first updated forecasts after its U-turn in Jan on Wednesday and will be a key event for markets this week.Key Quotes“We expect relatively small changes to its economic forecasts but “dot plots” to shift from two hikes in 2019 to unchanged rates.” “Given the dovish market pricing (5bps rate cut by end-19), this should have limited impact on markets and we see risks to US rates being biased somewhat on the upside.” “In light of our expectations of an improving outlook we stick to our forecast that the #Fed will deliver a final rate hike in June.”

The arch-Eurosceptic UK lawmaker John Redwood was reported by Livesquawk, as saying that a lot of people are still opposed to pm may's deal, goes beyo

The arch-Eurosceptic UK lawmaker John Redwood was reported by Livesquawk, as saying that a lot of people are still opposed to pm may's deal, goes beyond the European Research Group (ERG).Also Read: DUP reportedly said not to be "bounced" into any decision in talks with govt – BBC

UK GDP rebounded nicely to start 2019, after a sharp slowing in December as manufacturing, construction, and services output all increased in January

UK GDP rebounded nicely to start 2019, after a sharp slowing in December as manufacturing, construction, and services output all increased in January to retrace the previous month’s declines, explains the analysis team at Royal Bank of Canada.Key Quotes“The monthly data can be volatile, but this latest reading will help allay fears that the UK economy is grinding to a halt amid Brexit uncertainty. Still, survey data point to Brexit continuing to weigh on business sentiment. The UK’s composite PMI rebounded somewhat after hitting a multi-year low in January, but the manufacturing sector has been flattered by stock-building (ahead of potential border delays) and service-producers cited risk averse clients as a factor weighing on new orders.” “On balance, our forecast assumes we’ll see another quarter of subtrend 0.2% growth to start this year. Households and businesses looking for clarity on Brexit have been left wanting. Parliament once again voted down Prime Minister May’s deal, instead opting to ask the EU for an extension to the March 29 deadline.” “That extension could be just a few months if Parliament can decide on a deal by March 20 (PM May’s will be voted on for a third time before then). Or it could be a longer delay that keeps the UK in the EU through the end of this year. That would leave the door open to a number of other scenarios, including fresh elections or a second referendum.”

   •  The pair extended its consolidative price action on the first day of a new trading week, albeit now seems to have formed a firm base near 200-ho

   •  The pair extended its consolidative price action on the first day of a new trading week, albeit now seems to have formed a firm base near 200-hour SMA.    •  Bullish technical indicators on the daily chart support prospects for additional gains, albeit mixed oscillators on hourly charts warrant some caution.   •  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break through Friday's swing high, coinciding with 50-hour SMA, before positioning for any meaningful up-move.USD/JPY 1-hourly chartUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 111.52
    Today Daily change: 4 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.04%
    Today Daily Open: 111.48
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 111.22
    Daily SMA50: 110.16
    Daily SMA100: 111.3
    Daily SMA200: 111.44
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 111.9
    Previous Daily Low: 111.38
    Previous Weekly High: 111.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 110.88
    Previous Monthly High: 111.5
    Previous Monthly Low: 108.73
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 111.58
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 111.7
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 111.27
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 111.06
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 110.75
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 111.79
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 112.11
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 112.32  

BBC Political Reporter Jayne McCormackt tweeted that the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is reportedly said not to be "bounced" into an

BBC Political Reporter Jayne McCormackt tweeted that the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is reportedly said not to be "bounced" into any decision in talks with the UK government.Tweet: “DUP source on talks with the govt says they’ll not be “bounced” into anything, said the govt may have floated offers of £££ but for the DUP it’s all about ensuring the constitutional integrity of the UK. Likely to be radio silence today as they continue talking...” The above headline weighed negatively on the pound that dragged GBP/USD to fresh session lows near 1.3260 before recovering some ground to now trade near 1.3270.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its worth having another round of talks before it comes

Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its worth having another round of talks before it comes to a hard Brexit. Nothing further has been reported on the same.

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.1349     Today Daily change: 31 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.20%     Today Dail

EUR/USD is extending the recent up move after finding decent support in the 21-day SMA at 1.1319 earlier in the session.The up move in spot is now targeting the key 55-day SMA at 1.1365., considered the last defence of a test of late February peaks near 1.1420.On the broader picture, a test of YTD lows in the 1.1180/75 band remains on the cards as long as the multi-month resistance line – today at 1.1424 – caps the upside.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1349
    Today Daily change: 31 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.20%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1326
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.132
    Daily SMA50: 1.1366
    Daily SMA100: 1.1369
    Daily SMA200: 1.1487
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1346
    Previous Daily Low: 1.13
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1346
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1222
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1489
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1234
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1317
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1302
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1278
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1256
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1348
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1369
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1393  

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/GBP’s new low of .8471 was not been confirmed by the daily RSI and it should allow for anot

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/GBP’s new low of .8471 was not been confirmed by the daily RSI and it should allow for another test of the accelerated downtrend at .8638.Key Quotes“While capped here downside risk remains for losses to the 200 week ma at .8390. It is on the defensive. Above the downtrend, rallies are likely to find initial resistance at .8722 (22nd February high) ahead of .8742, .8846 (55 and 200 day ma).” “The market is expected to struggle on rallies to the 200 day ma at .8849, and only above here allows for a move to the October .8941 high, which is expected to contain the topside.”

   •  The prevalent USD selling bias helps regain some positive traction in the last hour.    •  US-China trade uncertainty underpins safe-haven deman

   •  The prevalent USD selling bias helps regain some positive traction in the last hour.
   •  US-China trade uncertainty underpins safe-haven demand and remained supportive.
   •  Positive US bond yields/improving risk-sentiment might keep a lid on strong up-move.
Gold quickly reversed an Asian session dip to $1298 area and spiked to fresh session tops in the last hour, back closer to the previous session's swing high. Despite a mildly positive tone around the US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar bulls remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and turned out to be one of the key factors benefitting the dollar-denominated commodity. This coupled with some renewed uncertainty over a possible breakthrough in the US-China trade deal further underpinned the precious metal's relative safe-haven demand and remained supportive of the latest leg of an up-move.  The uptick seemed rather unaffected by improving risk sentiment, as depicted by the prevalent bullish trading sentiment around equity markets, though might act as the only factor keeping a lid on any runaway rally.  Moreover, investors might also be reluctant to place any aggressive bids ahead of this week's key event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update, which might provide a fresh directional impetus for the non-yielding yellow metal.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market moving US economic releases on Monday.Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is pegged near the $1309-10 region, above which the momentum could get extended further towards the $1314 intermediate hurdle en-route $1320 supply zone. On the flip side, the $1298-96 region now seems to have emerged as immediate support, which if broken might turn the commodity vulnerable to slide back towards testing $1287-85 horizontal region.
 

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Today Last Price: 96.41     Today Daily change: 20 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.15%     Toda

The index is adding to Friday’s weakness and remains on the way to a potential visit of the key 55-day SMA, today at 96.33.Further south is expected to test the 95.80 region, where coincide late-February lows and the critical 200-day SMA.That said, the constructive view on DXY is expected to persist as long as the 200-day SMA underpins.DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.41
    Today Daily change: 20 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.15%
    Today Daily Open: 96.55
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.68
    Daily SMA50: 96.35
    Daily SMA100: 96.57
    Daily SMA200: 95.8
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.79
    Previous Daily Low: 96.49
    Previous Weekly High: 97.45
    Previous Weekly Low: 96.38
    Previous Monthly High: 97.37
    Previous Monthly Low: 95.4
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.6
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.68
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.43
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.31
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.13
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.73
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.91
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.03  

Jens Peter Sørensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has settled around pre-ECB levels and the continued drop that they h

Jens Peter Sørensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has settled around pre-ECB levels and the continued drop that they have been looking for has yet to materialise.Key Quotes“The Fed this week will be important in determining whether we can see another dip lower: we expect the Fed to lower its ‘dot’ signal to one rate hike in 2019 (down from two) and would not be surprised if it signals that it will be ‘one and done’; this would likely be seen as dovish and support EUR/USD even if the Fed has begun downplaying the importance of the dots.” “We still look for two hikes due to our overall positive outlook for this year; this should hold a hand under the USD further out - but not necessarily this week.” “Friday’s PMIs from either side of the Atlantic could what send EUR/USD lower yet again though: we are looking for a decent US manufacturing reading while the euro-zone one could be set for another drop, highlighting that the cyclical picture still favours the USD. Further, a US-China trade deal now looks delayed until April.”

Analysts at Deutsche Bank lists down the key economic events and releases for the markets from across the globe. Key Quotes "Monday: A quiet start t

Analysts at Deutsche Bank lists down the key economic events and releases for the markets from across the globe.Key Quotes"Monday: A quiet start to the week with the only data due being the January trade balance for the Euro Area and the March NAHB housing market index reading in the US.”“Tuesday: The possibility of UK PM May bringing a 3rd version of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament will likely be the highlight. As for data, we'll get the January/February employment report in the UK, Q4 labour costs for the Euro Area and the March ZEW survey for Germany in the morning. In the US, final January durable and capital goods orders revisions, and January factory orders are due. Late evening we'll get BoJ minutes from the January meeting. Away from that Brazil President Bolsonaro will meet with President Trump at the White House.”“Wednesday: All eyes will be on the Fed meeting in the evening. Prior to that, the only data due out is the February PPI reading in Germany and February CPI/RPI/ PPI in the UK.”“Thursday: Brexit should dominate proceedings again as the two-day EU Council meeting kicks off in Brussels. The BoE policy decision is also due, while China President Xi Jinping is due to visit Italy and meet with PM Conte on the Belt and Road initiative. As for data, we'll get February retail sales and public sector net borrowing data in the UK, March consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area and March Philly Fed PMI, initial jobless claims and February leading index all in the US. Late evening we'll also get February CPI in Japan.”“Friday: The flash March PMIs in Japan, Europe and the US highlight data releases on Friday. Other than that, we'll get January wholesale inventories, February existing home sales and February monthly budget statement. Away from that, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at the San Francisco Fed’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.”  

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 126.54     Today Daily change: 0.29 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.23%     Today Da

EUR/JPY has resumed its march north after Friday’s lack of direction and is now flirting with the 100-day SMA in the mid-126.00s.The continuation of the upside momentum should see the 127.50, or fresh YTD highs, revisited in the near term.In the meantime, while above the short-term support line at 124.39, the constructive stance on the cross should remain unchanged.EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 126.54
    Today Daily change: 39 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.23%
    Today Daily Open: 126.25
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 125.9
    Daily SMA50: 125.2
    Daily SMA100: 126.53
    Daily SMA200: 128.01
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 126.58
    Previous Daily Low: 126.12
    Previous Weekly High: 126.58
    Previous Weekly Low: 124.48
    Previous Monthly High: 126.92
    Previous Monthly Low: 124.16
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 126.29
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 126.4
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 126.05
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 125.85
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 125.58
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 126.52
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 126.78
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 126.98  

The optimism around the European currency remains well and sound on Monday and is now helping EUR/USD to advance to fresh 2-week highs in the 1.1350 a

The pair moves higher and visits the 1.1350 region.The greenback trades on the defensive below 96.50.EMU Trade Balance next on tap in the docket.The optimism around the European currency remains well and sound on Monday and is now helping EUR/USD to advance to fresh 2-week highs in the 1.1350 area.EUR/USD looks to trade, risk trendsThe pair is adding to Friday’s gains above 1.1300 the figure today against the backdrop of the persistent offered bias surrounding the greenback. In the meantime, investors continue to look to the broader risk appetite trends for direction, where the US-China trade dispute and the Brexit negotiations remain in the centre of the debate for the time being. In today’s calendar, Trade Balance figures for the month of January are only due in Euroland along with the speech by ECB’s L. De Guindos, and P.Praet.What to look for around EURMarket participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price action in the near term. In the longer run, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2019. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.20% at 1.1346 facing the next hurdle at 1.1365 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (high Feb.14) and finally 1.1484 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1286 (10-day SMA) would target 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

   •  The prevalent USD weakness prompts some fresh selling at higher levels.    •  A modest pull-back in oil prices fails to lend any support/ease be

   •  The prevalent USD weakness prompts some fresh selling at higher levels.
   •  A modest pull-back in oil prices fails to lend any support/ease bearish pressure.
The USD/CAD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Monday, with bears now eyeing a sustained break below the 1.3300 handle.  The pair failed to capitalize on the early Asian uptick to an intraday high level of 1.3347 and has now dropped back closer to two-week lows amid some renewed US Dollar selling bias, despite a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields.  Meanwhile, a mildly negative tone surrounding crude oil prices, which tend to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie, also did little to lend any support or stall the ongoing slide back closer to last week's lows. It would now be interesting to see if the pair continues showing some resilience below the 1.3300 handle, or the current leg of a slide marks the resumption of the recent bearish trajectory amid absent relevant market moving economic releases.  However, this week's key event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update on Wednesday, might hold traders from placing aggressive bets and might turn out to be the only factor helping limit deeper losses, at least for the time being.Technical levels to watchThe 1.3290 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might accelerate the slide towards 50-day SMA, around the 1.3265 region, en-route 1.3335-30 horizontal support. On the flip side, the 1.3330-35 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance and is followed by resistance near the 1.3370 area, above which the pair seems all set to reclaim the 1.3400 handle.
 

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY pair is neutralising near term and it is possible that will have to allow for a deeper retra

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY pair is neutralising near term and it is possible that will have to allow for a deeper retracement to the 55 day ma and the 2 month uptrend at 110.08/110.13, which should hold for an upside bias to be preserved.Key Quotes“We suspect that it is trying to reassert its up move sooner. Immediate resistance is 112.23, the 6th December low, the 112.43 55 quarter moving average and recent high at 113.71. We have a 5 month resistance line also at 113.08.” “Long term trend (1-3 months): break of the 200 day ma opens path to the 113.71 recent high and the top of the range at 114.55/73.”

Jens Peter Sørensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, points out that in the UK, PM May has been trying to get more support from the Eurosceptics in her

Jens Peter Sørensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, points out that in the UK, PM May has been trying to get more support from the Eurosceptics in her party for her deal, which is expected to be put to a vote on Tuesday.Key Quotes“If she does not have strong chance of getting the deal accepted, then she is not likely to put it to a third vote according to media reports quoting ministers in her government. Otherwise, PM May will go the EU summit on Thursday to seek an extension on the Brexit process. Hence, there will be plenty of uncertainty regarding the Brexit process during the week. GBP has remained fairly range-bound versus both the USD and EUR this morning.”

According to analysts at Royal Bank of Canada, recent comments indicate Fed officials are comfortable with the current policy stance, making a near-te

According to analysts at Royal Bank of Canada, recent comments indicate Fed officials are comfortable with the current policy stance, making a near-term rate hike unlikely.Key Quotes“While financial conditions have improved so far this year, some of the other “cross-currents” Chairman Powell mentioned following January’s rate decision remain in place. And although we think the economic backdrop remains solid, some mixed indicators of late and steady inflation readings justify a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle.” “The question is, will a return to above-trend growth (after what looks like a slow start to the year) be enough for the Fed to raise rates further? Minutes from the January FOMC meeting show division on that point—some participants will need to see inflation surprising to the upside to justify raising fed funds, while others think rate hikes will be appropriate as long as the economy evolves as expected.” “A fresh dot plot in March should give us some idea of the size of those two camps. Our expectation is that a solid economic backdrop will see the Fed raising rates twice more (closer to the midpoint of most neutral estimates) despite core inflation remaining only slightly above 2%. There is a risk that we don’t see those rate hikes until the second half of the year when the Fed has solid evidence that Q1’s slowing is transitory.”

Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the matter, as saying that some officials at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said to see price goal out of reach through

Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the matter, as saying that some officials at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said to see price goal out of reach through 2021.Further Details:BOJ has not started discussions on numerical forecasts for next month's quarterly outlook report yet. The officials view that the current inflation momentum is said to be insufficient and that is why they believe that it won't reach the 2% target over the projected time frame.

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Chinese Assistant Commerce Minister, with the key headlines found below. China's foreign trade situation

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Chinese Assistant Commerce Minister, with the key headlines found below.China's foreign trade situation becoming more uncertain, more 'complicated'. Reiterates to actively expand imports.

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest and volume decreased by around 4.4K contracts and 76.3K contracts, respectively, Fr

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest and volume decreased by around 4.4K contracts and 76.3K contracts, respectively, Friday from the previous day.USD/JPY still looks to 112.00The negative performance of USD/JPY on Friday was in tandem with shrinking open interest and volume, removing tailwinds from a potential deeper retracement in the near term, focusing instead on a probable re-test of the 112.00 area and above.

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, as he continues to speak about the OPEC+ output cuts. Invento

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, as he continues to speak about the OPEC+ output cuts. Inventory levels and oil investments are the two main parameters guiding our action. Oil industry estimates show we need $11trln over coming 2 decades to meet demand growth. Other producers have assured him on full cuts compliance. Confident that oil producers will reach full conformity with cuts and even exceed it in weeks to come.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that later in the week, central banks will dominate the agenda with the BOE, Fed and Norges Bank concluding their policy

Danske Bank analysts suggest that later in the week, central banks will dominate the agenda with the BOE, Fed and Norges Bank concluding their policy meetings.Key Quotes“The week starts out on a fairly quiet note with regards to economic releases. Instead markets will be looking for new signals from Brussels with regard to the extension of the triggering of Article 50 in relation to Brexit.” “On Wednesday, the Fed is on hold while lowering the 'dot' signal for 2019 to one hike (from two), and hence we think the most interesting meeting will be the Norges Bank meeting on Thursday, where we expect a rise in its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% and to signal one further rate hike this year.”

   •  A subdued USD price action remains supportive of the positive momentum.    •  A strong rally in Dalian iron ore provides an additional boost to

   •  A subdued USD price action remains supportive of the positive momentum.
   •  A strong rally in Dalian iron ore provides an additional boost to the Aussie.
   •  Technical buying above 0.7100 mark further accelerates the bullish trajectory.
The AUD/USD pair caught some aggressive bids at the start of a new trading week and built on the momentum further beyond the 0.7100 handle. After last week's sharp intraweek pull-back, the pair regained positive traction on Friday and was being supported by some renewed US Dollar selling bias amid a fresh leg of a downfall in the US Treasury bond yields.  With the USD bulls holding on the defensive, the prevalent risk-on mood underpinned the perceived riskier currency - Aussie and helped the pair to extend the positive momentum through the Asian session on Monday. Adding to this, strong gains of nearly 2% in Dalian iron ore provided an additional boost to the commodity-linked Australian Dollar and remained supportive of the strong bid tone surrounding the major. Meanwhile, possibilities of some near-term stops being triggered, leading to some fresh technical buying on a sustained move above the 0.7100 mark further contributed the ongoing bullish trajectory.  There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday and hence, a move towards challenging 50-day SMA, currently near the 0.7135 region, now looks a distinct possibility.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle is likely to accelerate the up-move further towards the 0.7160-65 horizontal resistance, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 0.7200 handle. On the flip side, the 0.7100-0.7095 region now becomes immediate support to defend, which if broken might prompt some long-unwinding trade and drag the pair back towards testing the 0.7065-60 support area.

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group noted investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 2.6K contracts on Friday, the

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group noted investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 2.6K contracts on Friday, the second consecutive drop. In the same direction, volume decreased for the third session in a row, this time by nearly 132.9K contracts.GBP/USD door open for a test of 1.3200 and belowCable’s uptick on Friday was on the back of declining open interest and volume, opening the door for a continuation of the correction lower to recent lows in the 1.3200 area and even 1.3180, where emerges the 10-day SMA.

The latest headlines are crossing the wires from Iraq's Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi, as he says that only state companies cut output under OPEC+ deal

The latest headlines are crossing the wires from Iraq's Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi, as he says that only state companies cut output under OPEC+ deal. Separately, the Venezuelan Energy Minister noted that its oil production stood at 1.432mln bpd in the month of February.

FX option expiries for Mar 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1250 1.4bn - GBP/USD: GBP am

FX option expiries for Mar 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1250 1.4bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3175 343m 1.3350 270m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.55 542m  110.60 478m  111.55 507m  111.60 525m  112.00 720m  112.50 750m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3400 540m 1.3435 996m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6800 299m  0.6825 1.1bn - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts  0.8500 1.7bn

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by around 7.1K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 535,858 contracts according to preliminary figures

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by around 7.1K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 535,858 contracts according to preliminary figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume shrunk significantly by around 186.3k contracts, recording the second drop in a row.EUR/USD could test the 55-day SMA near 1.1370EUR/USD has started the week on a positive footing, regaining the 1.1340 region amidst rising open interest and declining volume. That said, a move to the 55-day SMA at 1.1365 is not ruled out, although further gains appears somewhat limited.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the GBP/USD pair continues to hold and bounce from the short term uptrend at 1.3002, after the ma

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the GBP/USD pair continues to hold and bounce from the short term uptrend at 1.3002, after the market last week challenged the 1.3363 July 2018 high, reaching 1.3382 before failing.Key Quotes“The new high has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI and we would allow for some near term consolidation ahead of further upside attempts.” “Overall target remains the 1.3574 200 week ma. Below the 1.3002 short term uptrend lies the double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895. This guards the recent low at 1.2772.” “Below 1.2772 we would allow for losses to the 1.2669/62 15th January low and August low and possibly the 1.2609/78.6% retracement.”

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we need to reconsider whether there is a need for OPEC+ m

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we need to reconsider whether there is a need for OPEC+ meeting in April.Additional Comments:“We are not under pressure from the US to increase supply.” “The oil market is oversupplied.” “As long as the level of inventory is rising we will stay the course.” “OPEC won’t change course until we see impact of sanctions.” “We are guided by oil inventory.” Potential for decision to extend output cuts to be made in June.

According to analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada, in the US, the Fed is universally expected to hold the fed funds target range unchanged at the Marc

According to analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada, in the US, the Fed is universally expected to hold the fed funds target range unchanged at the March 20th FOMC meeting alongside softening in Q1 GDP growth data and increased concerns about the global growth backdrop.Key Quotes“And revised assessments of the most likely path for interest rates going forward are likely to show fewer and more gradual hikes through the end of 2020. Still, US economic reports have been more constructive recently, including solid increases in business construction spending and capital equipment shipments in January reported over the last week.”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is looking for direction around the 96.50 region at the beginning of the week amidst alternating

The index navigates the mid-96.00s ahead of the European open.Yields of the US 10-year note rebound from 2.58%.NAHB index only in the docket later today.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is looking for direction around the 96.50 region at the beginning of the week amidst alternating risk trends.US Dollar Index focused on FOMC meetingThe index is meandering the lower bound of the recent range in the 96.50 region following the rejection from last week’s fresh 2019 tops in the 97.70/75 band. The pick up in the sentiment around the risk-associated universe has been weighing on the buck during the past week, triggering the re-emergence of the selling bias. However, further decline in the greenback appears to have met contention after the Trump-Xi meeting was pushed back to some point in April, somewhat reigniting uncertainty in the trade front. Later in the day, the NAHB index is only due for release ahead of Factory Orders due tomorrow and the key FOMC meeting on Wednesday.What to look for around USDThe optimism around a positive outcome in the US-China trade front faded somewhat in past days, although investors seem hopeful of a final agreement at the end of the day. On another front, US inflation seems to be losing some traction while activity remains strong, adding to the ongoing debate on whether the Fed should re-assess its next steps of its monetary policy, particularly regarding rate hikes. The occasional resumption of the upside in the buck, however, carries the potential to spark fresh bouts of criticism from President Trump to both the Fed’s policy and the level of the currency.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 96.50 facing the resistance at 96.65 (10-day SMA) seconded by 96.88 (10-day SMA) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7). On the flip side, a breach of 96.39 (low Mar.13) would open the door to 96.34 (55-day SMA) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28).

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair is currently trading back within its range as recently has not sustained a break l

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair is currently trading back within its range as recently has not sustained a break lower.Key Quotes“The market is approaching tougher resistance at the 55 and 100 day ma at 1.1366/67 and we would allow for initial failure and some slippage back to the low 1.1200 region.” “We have our doubts that the market will at this juncture retest the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186 but Intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and the market is ranging.” “There is now a considerable amount of resistance above the market extending up to the 200 day ma at 1.1484. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.1366/67 the 55 and 100 day ma, which guard the 1.1420 end of February high and the 1.1422 downtrend. Below 1.1185/75 lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

USD/JPY is on bid around 111.55 during early Monday. The pair gave little importance to speculations concerning the Fed’s dovish appearance this week

Traders welcomed no-deal Brexit ahead of a busy week including FOMC.111.15 and 111.90 is likely an immediate range for the quote.USD/JPY is on bid around 111.55 during early Monday. The pair gave little importance to speculations concerning the Fed’s dovish appearance this week over the risk on sentiment that weakened safe havens like the Japanese Yen (JPY). Current month NAHB housing market index from the US and developments surrounding risk events could direct immediate moves. Buyers were initially praised over the absence of no-deal Brexit scenario and ignored upbeat print of the February month Japanese export growth, namely -1.2% against -6.7% imports.  The upside strength got increased support on the BBC report that the UK’s Finance Minister Philip Hammond said that a significant number of the British members of parliament (MPs) support PM May’s plan that’ll be up for voting on Tuesday. Investors turned optimistic despite a Bloomberg report showing traders weigh higher chances of a dovish FOMC (federal open market committee) appearance during Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve. Risk sentiment still remains on card as some of the British MPs ask for PM May’s resignation in April in exchange of their support to her Brexit proposal while the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) lowered their GDP forecasts for the UK and New Zealand economies respectively. Additionally, the US housing market gauge is likely to remain around 63 versus 62 prior whereas the US-China trade deal is also witnessing fewer chances of a successful before June.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisSustained trading above eleven-week long ascending support-line portrays the USD/JPY pair’s strength to confront multiple resistances around 111.90, which if broken opens the gate for an additional rise to 112.15 and 112.30. Meanwhile, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 111.40 acts as immediate support for the pair before highlighting the said trend-line, at 111.15 now.

It was a quiet affair in Asia this Monday, with softer tone around the greenback lifting the sentiment across the fx space, as markets expect the Fede

It was a quiet affair in Asia this Monday, with softer tone around the greenback lifting the sentiment across the fx space, as markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain accommodative on its monetary policy stance in the week ahead. Among the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans benefited the most from a broadly weaker greenback, as the 2% rally in iron-ore prices combined with the risk-on action in the Asian equities also collaborated to the upbeat tone. The Aussie extended its rally and conquered the 0.71 handle while the Kiwi headed back towards the 0.6900 level. The USD/JPY pair also advanced to 111.65, as downbeat Japanese exports data weighed negatively on the Yen. Both the Euro and the pound traded modestly flat, as investors remain cautious amid recent Brexit developments and Eurozone growth concerns. The USD/CAD pair traded weaker and looked to test the 1.33 handle, despite the selling in oil prices. Meanwhile. Gold futures on Comex remained under pressure below the 1300 mark amid an uptick in Treasury yields and US equity futures.Main Topics in AsiaWhat The PM Offered The DUP - ITV Back My Brexit Or We’ll Never Leave, Says Theresa May - The Sunday Times Saudi signals OPEC may need to extend oil cuts until end-2019 - Reuters Boris urges May to make final appeal on backstop – The UK Telegraph Trump-Xi meeting to end trade war may be pushed back to June, sources say -SCP NZIER lowers New Zealand’s 2019 GDP forecasts UK business investment to fall by most in 10 years in 2019 due to Brexit - BCC Australia money markets convinced of two 25bps rate cuts - Bloomberg Japan trade surplus with US declined 0.9% in February UK FinMin Hammond: “Significant numbers” of MPs support May’s plan, but “not there yet” Russia’s Novak: Talks need to be held in May to decide OPEC+ future output policy Gold: Improving risk sentiment recalls sub-$1300 areaKey Focus AheadMarkets buckle up for a quiet start to a busy week ahead that is dominated by the key central banks monetary policy announcements. On the data front, we have a thin showing in the session ahead, with the only relevant Eurozone trade balance slated for release at 1000 GMT. While at 1100 GMT, the German Bundesbank monthly economic report will be published. The NA session is also expected to be light on the macro news, with no first-tier US economic releases. At 1230 GMT, the Canadian portfolio investment data will be reported, which likely to virtually have no impact on the markets. Towards NY closing at 2000 GMT, New Zealand’s Westpac consumer survey for Q1 will drop in. All eyes will remain on the risk trends and Brexit-related headlines, as the UK readies for the third meaningful vote on PM May’s plan scheduled this Thursday, March 21st. EUR/USD: US-DE 2-yr bond yield spread hits 11-month low in EUR-positive manner The EUR could soon scale the immediate resistance zone of 1.1335-1.1350. That range has capped upside for the last three trading days. However, with markets pricing in a 2020 rate cut, the bar of (dovish) expectations is set high and the dollar will likely pick up a strong bid if the central bank takes note of the recent improvement in the risk sentiment.  GBP/USD: Buyers and sellers jostle near 1.3300 amid Brexit reports, Fed expectations The GBP/USD pair clings to 1.3300 ahead of London open on Monday. The quote struggled between optimism surrounding soft/delayed Brexit, doubts over the UK economic growth and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may end up revising its plan to fewer rate hikes in 2019.  Three Highlights in the Week Ahead Three events next week will shape the investment climate.  The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance.  The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads … GBP/USD Forecast: The longer the Brexit extension, the higher the pound potential The EU leaders convene on Thursday, March 21st to decide on an extension. They are expected to approve it, but want to know why and for how long. If it weren't for Brexit, the jobs report, inflation data, retail sales, and the BOE decision would … FOMC preview: All eyes on the 2019 dot plot - TDS Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a detailed preview of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy announcement that is scheduled at 1800GMT.     

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, the highlight of the week in the US will be the central bank’s monetary policy meeting. Key Quotes

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, the highlight of the week in the US will be the central bank’s monetary policy meeting.Key Quotes“Keeping in accordance with its most recent communications, which emphasized the central bank’s wait-and-see approach, the Fed will stay on the sidelines this time.” “The newest version of the dot plot, for its part, should show participants lowering their rate hikes expectations for 2019 from two to one.” “On February 27, Chair Powell said he expected the Fed balance sheet plan to be announced “fairly soon”. Thus, we may get more details as to when the Fed expect to halt the runoff of its balance sheet and what will be the reinvestment policy going forward for maturing Treasuries as well as for mortgage backed securities.” “February’s existing home sales data will also be published, with a rebound expected following three straight declines. We’ll also get the flash estimate of Markit’s composite PMI for March.”

According to the CFTC’s positioning data for the week ending 12 March 2019, leveraged funds turned net USD buyers after two weeks of net selling, but

According to the CFTC’s positioning data for the week ending 12 March 2019, leveraged funds turned net USD buyers after two weeks of net selling, but the buying was not broad-based.Key Quotes“EUR witnessed the most selling by funds in the week, reversing net buying from the previous two weeks. This is not surprising, given the 7 March ECB meeting which introduced new stimulus measures and downgraded euro area growth forecasts.” “GBP price action and positioning will continue to be guided by Brexit related developments in the coming weeks. Funds were marginal net buyers of GBP for the second week in a row while asset managers were net sellers.” “Funds and money managers took contrary views on commodity currencies in the week, while EMFX saw net selling by both leveraged funds and asset managers.”

The pennant breakout seen in EUR/USD's 4-hour chart indicates the rally from the March 7 low of 1.1176 has resumed and 1.1363 (76.4% Fib R of 1.1420/1

The pennant breakout seen in EUR/USD's 4-hour chart indicates the rally from the March 7 low of 1.1176 has resumed and 1.1363 (76.4% Fib R of 1.1420/1.1176) could soon come into play. As of writing, the spot is trading just below the 4H 200-candle moving average (MA) of 1.1338.  The bullish case would weaken if the spot falls back into the pennant pattern. 4-hour chartTrend: Bullish  

USD/CHF daily chart USD/CHF trades near 1.0015 while heading towards European session on Monday. The quote took a U-turn from 1.0120/30 area, incl

USD/CHF daily chartUSD/CHF trades near 1.0015 while heading towards European session on Monday.The quote took a U-turn from 1.0120/30 area, including November 2018 high and early-month top, with the downward slopping 14-day relative strength index (RSI) signaling weakness in the sentiment.Though, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and an ascending support-line connecting January and February lows could challenge sellers around 0.9990/80.Should bears refrain to respect 0.9980 rest-point, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of February – November 2018 increase, at 0.9900, could become their favorite.Alternatively, 1.0065/70 can offer immediate resistance to the pair ahead of fuelling it to the 1.0120/30 region.Should there be increased upside momentum past-1.0130, the pair could aim for 1.0300 mark comprising 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of the previously said upside. USD/CHF 4-Hour chartIn addition to 0.9980 an upward sloping trend-line joining January 14 lows to February ones, coupled with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January to March upside, at 0.9965/60, can also offer strong support to the pair prices.Meanwhile, 61.8% FE level of January – February moves, at 1.0165 can offer a halt to a rally past-1.0130. USD/CHF hourly chart0.9940 might become an extra rest between 0.9960 and 0.9900 if observing H1 chart.1.0045 seems adjacent trend-line resistance for buyers to watch.

In view of analysts at ANZ, drivers of New Zealand’s economic growth have shifted and this has been reflected in a changing economic landscape regiona

In view of analysts at ANZ, drivers of New Zealand’s economic growth have shifted and this has been reflected in a changing economic landscape regionally, while it’s currently a mixed picture of the economy.Key Quotes“Auckland and Canterbury are not the engines of growth they once were. Conditions in Wellington are very favourable. Meanwhile, a number of provincial areas, like Northland, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, Otago and Southland have been hot spots – boosted by favourable conditions in agricultural segments, strong tourism, buoyant housing markets, and population growth. However, challenges such as low confidence in the dairy industry are weighing in some areas.” “Despite regional divergences and strong performance in some places, businesses across a range of regions are wary about the outlook – and there is a risk that the landscape could shift from here.”

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that their –5k forecast for February is more about monthly volatility than the start of a new trend for the

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that their –5k forecast for February is more about monthly volatility than the start of a new trend for the Australian economy, after the total employment lifted a solid 39.1k in January, well clear of the market median of 15k.Key Quotes“The year started with a solid trend pace of employment growth with a three month average gain of 31.9k. While it is just one month into the year, employment has gained 271k in the year to January (2.2%yr) with a very solid 2.9%yr six month annualised pace.” “There is, however, an important caveat – January is the peak holiday month in Australia as Christmas, New Year and school summer vacation all come together. Little business happens in Australia at this time.” “We believe that employment growth is set to stall through the first half of 2019, in part due to uncertainty surrounding the April Federal election but also some payback for the earlier strength in the labour market. However, our –5k forecast for February is more about monthly volatility than the start of a new trend.” “Despite the strong gain in employment, the unemployment rate was flat in January at 5.0% (market median was for 5.0%) as a 0.1ppt lift in the participation rate to 65.7% (65.72% at two decimal places) boosted the gain in the labour force by 45.7k.” “Holding the participation rate flat at 65.7%, our forecast for a –5k fall in employment will see the unemployment rate tick up to 5.1%.”

USD/CAD created a big doji candle - a sign of indecision in the market place - neutralizing the immediate bearish move.  Notably, the doji candle has

USD/CAD created a big doji candle - a sign of indecision in the market place - neutralizing the immediate bearish move.  Notably, the doji candle has appeared near 1.3290, a level where sellers ran out of steam in the previous two trading sessions.  A close below 1.3287, therefore, would confirm bearish doji continuation, i.e. resumption of the sell-off from the March 7 high of 1.3467.  A bullish reversal would be confirmed if the spot sees a close above 1.3371 (Doji candle's high) today. Daily chartTrend: Neutral  

Analysts at ANZ points out that the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and the recent Fed guidance points to it cu

Analysts at ANZ points out that the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and the recent Fed guidance points to it cutting its interest rate guidance (dot plot) by around 50bp over 2019 and 2020, leaving one hike in the forecast horizon, which ANZ don’t expect the Fed to act on.Key Quotes“We have taken out our final rate hike and see policy on hold.” “The Fed’s tightening cycle looks done for the foreseeable future. Only a sharp and sustained inflation overshoot could trigger further hikes – a scenario we don’t envisage in the next couple of years.” “The Fed may announce an end for quantitative tightening, but the specifics on the balance sheet’s hiatus period, optimal reserve holdings and the duration of its Treasury securities portfolio may not be addressed.” “Chair Powell may be asked about whether the Fed will adopt an inflation overshoot strategy. We expect him to reiterate that the bar is high for changes to the current framework.”

Gerard Burg, senior economist at NAB, suggests that the uncertainty around the accuracy of Chinese official data has inspired a range of alternative m

Gerard Burg, senior economist at NAB, suggests that the uncertainty around the accuracy of Chinese official data has inspired a range of alternative measures, often constructed from lower profile data series that are thought to be less subject to errors or manipulation.Key Quotes“The smoothness of China’s official economic growth raises some justifiable doubts around the accuracy of the country’s growth data. This is particularly the case when alternative measures (including our model) generally suggest that the economy slowed significantly in late 2015-early 2016 before subsequently recovering.” “There are a wide range of views around the validity of Chinese economic growth data, along with a range of potential alternative indicators. Ultimately all of these measures have some shortfalls and cannot be independently validated. This means that we can’t be certain that an alternative measure provides a more accurate picture of China’s economy than official statistics.” “Given China’s significance to the global economy, a greater degree of transparency around China’s national accounts (and other data) would be preferable.”  

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (0%) in January: Actual (0.3%)

The GBP/USD pair clings to 1.3300 ahead of London open on Monday. The quote struggled between optimism surrounding soft/delayed Brexit, doubts over th

PM May’s ability to get over with the third proposal in the UK parliament remain highlighted after no-deal Brexit is off the table.Speculations concerning dovish Fed, weaker UK growth also gain market attention.The GBP/USD pair clings to 1.3300 ahead of London open on Monday. The quote struggled between optimism surrounding soft/delayed Brexit, doubts over the UK economic growth and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may end up revising its plan to fewer rate hikes in 2019. While developments concerning Brexit could dominate major moves, the US NAHB housing market index might offer intermediate trading opportunities. With the British members of parliament (MPs) rejecting no-deal Brexit, chances of the UK’s hard exit from the EU drifted lower and helped the British Pound (GBP) register across the board gains.  Though, there are challenges to the UK PM Theresa May’s position as some 40 lawmakers unite against her third Brexit proposal and show readiness to turn it down if PM May doesn’t resign by April. On the positive side, UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond was noted saying by the BBC that significant numbers of the MPs support May’s plan. Additionally, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) cut its 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the UK economy to 1.2% from 1.3% estimated earlier. On the other hand, the US Dollar was weighed down as Bloomberg reported that the expectations the Fed will revise its plan for a median projection down to just one rate hike in 2019. The UK PM May has only three days to get parliament support if she wishes to join EU summit on Thursday, which in turn highlights Brexit developments prior to that. Also in the limelight will be current month NAHB housing market index from the US that’s expected to print 63.00 figure versus 62.00 prior.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisWhile 1.3345/50 acts as an immediate upside barrier for the pair, 1.3410 becomes strong resistance that holds the gate for the quote’s rise to 1.3500. Alternatively, 1.3220 and 1.3200 could provide immediate support to the pair, a break of which may recall 1.3130 support level on the chart.

Japan Capacity Utilization came in at -4.7%, below expectations (-0.3%) in January

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -3.4%, above expectations (-3.7%) in January

GBP/JPY pair is currently trading at 148.27, having persistently defended 147.66 (23.6% Fib R of 143.72/148.78) over the second half of the last week.

GBP/JPY pair is currently trading at 148.27, having persistently defended 147.66 (23.6% Fib R of 143.72/148.78) over the second half of the last week. 4-hour chartAs seen above, the pair defended the key Fib level with long-tailed doji candles - a sign of dip demand. So far, however, the bounce has been shallow.  That said, a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart would be confirmed if and when the pair finds acceptance under 147.66. That would expose the support at 144.73 - trendline connecting the Jan. 4 and Feb. 15 lows. Also note, that the rising trendline support would shift to 145.00 and above in the next few days. Trend: Bearish below 147.66  

The Barclays Research Team is out with a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT.

The Barclays Research Team is out with a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT.Key Quotes:“Recent Fedspeak suggests that the Fed is likely to pare back its economic projections and the path of the hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting. We believe the risks are skewed toward a dovish surprise. Fed may mark growth down by a tenth or so. Unemployment rate … Fed may mark this up by a tenth or so. Fed is likely to leave its inflation forecasts unchanged. Should translate into a reassessment lower of the path of policy. The median path of the funds rate may show only one hike over the forecast horizon, with the terminal rate at 2.5-2.75% and a neutral rate of 2.5%.  Fed also expected to outline the path of the balance sheet.”

EUR/USD clocked a high of 1.1344 on Friday, the highest level since March 4, as weak US data pushed Treasury yields lower.  The US Empire State manuf

EUR/USD's bounce from key 61.8% Fib support is backed by narrowing of US-German (DE) bond yield spreads. The two-year yield spread has hit lowest since April 2018 and could drop further ahead of the Fed, helping EUR/USD climb the immediate resistance zone of 1.1335-1.1350.EUR/USD clocked a high of 1.1344 on Friday, the highest level since March 4, as weak US data pushed Treasury yields lower.  The US Empire State manufacturing index released on Friday showed that manufacturing activity has cooled sharply this month. The index came in at 3.7, down from 8.8 and missed expectation of 10. In response, the 10-year treasury yield fell below 2.6 percent, signaling a continuation of the fall from the recent high of 2.77 percent.  Further, the spread between the two-year US and German government bond yields fell below 300 basis points - the first since April 2018.  As a result, the greenback took a beating across the board and could slide even further today, as the two-year yield spread will likely narrow further on dovish Fed expectations.  The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, but signal a reduced inclination to hike rates by lowering the projected path on interest rates to one hike in 2019 and one more in 2020. So, the EUR could soon scale the immediate resistance zone of 1.1335-1.1350. That range has capped upside for the last three trading days.  However, with markets pricing in a 2020 rate cut, the bar of (dovish) expectations is set high and the dollar will likely pick up a strong bid if the central bank takes note of the recent improvement in the risk sentiment. EUR/USD Technical Levels
 

Gold prices slid back to sub-$1300 region around early Monday. Optimism surrounding delayed Brexit largely played its role to propel the yellow metal

Concerns surrounding soft/delayed Brexit favored risk-on.Politics at the US and the UK, coupled with doubts over the US-China trade deal, could still play their roles.Gold prices slid back to sub-$1300 region around early Monday. Optimism surrounding delayed Brexit largely played its role to propel the yellow metal during week-start, giving less leeway to doubts over the US-China trade deal. However, latest reports concerning the UK and New Zealand growth, coupled with political drama at the Britain and the US may be looked for fresh impulse. With the last-week’s voting sessions on various Brexit issues giving rise to expectations of an orderly British exit from the EU, traders undermined risk-aversion. Adding to the profit-booking was the BBC’s report claiming the UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond said that significant numbers of Tory MPs are coming on board with PM May's plan. The bullion refrained from respecting latest doubts on the US-China trade deal. China’s South China Morning Post described that the much awaited April meeting (which was initially expected in March) between the US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping may now take place in June. It should also be noted that the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) lowered its growth forecast for the 2019 UK GDP whereas New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) did the same for New Zealand’s economy. While Brexit optimism triggered initial profit-booking of the yellow metal, recently doubts concerning the US-China trade deal and global growth may help its recover the losses. Additionally, politics at the UK and the US are also actively watched as few of the British members of parliaments (MPs) want PM May’s resignation by April in exchange of supporting her Brexit deal on Tuesday whereas Donald Trump used his veto right to topple opposition motion question the US-Mexico border wall.Gold: Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1305 acts as immediate resistance ahead of highlighting $1311 and $1322 numbers to the north. On the downside, $1294 and $1289 could entertain short-term sellers ahead of challenging them with 100-day SMA level of $1270.

AUD/USD crossed the 21-day moving average (MA) of 0.71 soon before press time and is currently trading at a session high of 0.7110.  The Aussie dolla

Risk-on and broad-based USD selling are likely boding well for the AUD in Asia. An uptick in iron ore prices is likely adding to the bid tone around the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD is teasing an expanding sideways channel breakout on the hourly chart. AUD/USD crossed the 21-day moving average (MA) of 0.71 soon before press time and is currently trading at a session high of 0.7110.  The Aussie dollar is likely benefitting from the broad-based weakness in the US dollar, possibly triggered by the weakness in the treasury yields. Notably, the 10-year treasury yield fell four basis points on Friday and closed below 2.6 percent, signaling a continuation of the drop from the recent high of 2.77 percent.  As of writing, the yield is flat-lined around 2.6 percent and could fall further, as suggested by Friday's bearish close, on dovish Fed expectations.  Possibly adding to the bid tone around the Aussie dollar at press time is the risk-on action in the Asian equities. The major Asian indices like Nikkei, S&P ASX 200, Kospi and the Shanghai Composite are all flashing green.  Further, Dalian iron ore futures are nearly up 2 percent and that could be helping the AUD score gains. Note that iron ore is one of Australia's top exports.  Technically speaking, the bullish cross of the 5- and 10-day moving averages indicate the path of least resistance is to the higher side. Also, on the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have found acceptance above the upper edge of the expanding sideways channel. So, further gains towards the 50-day MA, currently at 0.7134 cannot be ruled out. That said, risk assets need to remain bid, else the bull momentum may weaken, leaving the AUD sidelined just above 0.71. Technical Levels 

Reuters reports Russian Energy Minister Novak’s comment cited in a statement published by the Energy Ministry of Azerbaijan on Sunday, ahead of a meet

Reuters reports Russian Energy Minister Novak’s comment cited in a statement published by the Energy Ministry of Azerbaijan on Sunday, ahead of a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries scheduled for Monday in Baku.Key Headlines:Talks need to be held in May to decide on the future steps of an oil output pact between OPEC members and other major oil exporters known as OPEC+. Russia has started to cut production of oil by 140K bpd, part of the OPEC+ deal. 

One-month 25 delta risk reversals on AUD/USD (AU1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, is currently trading at -0.70 in favor of puts (bearish bets) - the h

One-month 25 delta risk reversals on AUD/USD (AU1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, is currently trading at -0.70 in favor of puts (bearish bets) - the highest level since Dec. 19.  While the negative number indicates the put options are still in demand, the bid has weakened in the last three weeks, as indicated by an improvement in risk reversals from -0.90 seen on Feb. 22. Also, the gauge has improved sharply from the low of -1.60 seen in the third quarter last year.  So, it seems safe to say that bearish AUD sentiment is weakening even though the Aussie money markets are pricing in two rate cuts in the next 12 months. AU1MRR

In an interview with BBC on Sunday, the UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond noted that significant numbers of Tory MPs are coming on board with PM May'

In an interview with BBC on Sunday, the UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond noted that significant numbers of Tory MPs are coming on board with PM May's plan. Further Comments:“What's happened since last Tuesday is a significant number of colleagues have changed their view on this and decided the alternatives are so unpalatable to them that they on reflection think that the prime minister's deal is the best way to deliver Brexit. We will only bring the deal back if we're confident enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it and get it through Parliament."

USD/JPY could challenge last week's highs above 111.80, having confirmed a flag breakout with a move above 111.53 in early Asia, according to the hour

USD/JPY could challenge last week's highs above 111.80, having confirmed a flag breakout with a move above 111.53 in early Asia, according to the hourly line chart.  A flag breakout usually extends the preceding bullish move. So, there is scope for a rally toward 112.38 (target as per the measured move method).  The bullish setup would be invalidated if the spot finds acceptance below 111.50. Hourly chartTrend: Bullish  

NZD/USD is stuck in a descending broadening channel for the sixth straight day, according to 4-hour chart.  The bulls failed to force a convincing br

NZD/USD is trading in an expanding falling channel for the sixth day. The upper edge of the channel proved a tough nut to crack on Friday, as upbeat US consumer sentiment overshadowed dismal factory output. NZIER has lowered both growth and interest rate forecast ahead of domestic GDP release, due this Wednesday. That may keep NZD under pressure today. A channel breakout, if any, ahead of the Fed could end up trapping bulls on the wrong side if the US central bank sounds less dovish than expected. NZD/USD is stuck in a descending broadening channel for the sixth straight day, according to 4-hour chart.  The bulls failed to force a convincing break above the upper edge of the channel on Friday as a better-than-expected forward-looking US consumer confidence number overshadowed the weaker-than-expected backward-looking US industrial production and manufacturing output, limiting losses in the greenback.  The situation has not changed much in Asia, with the pair sidelined below the channel resistance, currently at 0.6851.  Possibly capping upside at press time is the downward revision of growth forecasts by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). The group expects the annual GDP to peak at 2.9 percent from the year to March 2021 before moderating to 2.5 percent in the following year. Further, interest rate forecasts have been revised down throughout the projection period.  Notably, the downward revision has come two days ahead of the official GDP data, which is expected to show the growth rate ticked higher to 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.3 percent in the third quarter.  The NZD, therefore, may remain on the defensive with upside capped by channel resistance. However, an upside break cannot be ruled out, if the risk assets pick up a strong bid. The breakout, however, could be short-lived if the US Fed sounds less hawkish-than-expected this Wednesday.  Note that with markets pricing in a 2020 rate cut, the bar of (dovish) expectations has been set higher. So, the probability of the Fed disappointing dovish expectations is high. Technical Levels 

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a detailed preview of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy announcement that is sche

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a detailed preview of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy announcement that is scheduled at 1800GMT. Key Quotes:“Public comments from several Fed officials since the January FOMC meeting strongly suggest fewer projected hikes for 2019.  We expect the median will fall from two in the December 2018 dot plot to one in March - but it is fairly unlikely that the median will decline to no hikes in 2019.  There is hardly any chance Fed officials will put cuts into their 2019 policy projections, despite market pricing. We also expect the median dots for 2020 and 2021 to no longer suggest hiking beyond a neutral range.  …  a consequence of …  the lower projected path for core inflation. In effect, we are looking for a flat rate path in the dots after one more hike this year. For the longer-run dots, we do not expect a material change in the distribution, with nearly all (if not all) participants submitting values between 2.5% and 3% -thus keeping the median at 2.75%. Despite Chair Powell conceding that the dot plot has been an occasional source of "confusion" for markets, we do not anticipate any substantive change to the way the dots are delivered at the upcoming March FOMC meeting.” 

The latest quarterly survey of economists at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showed that the economists made a downward revisio

The latest quarterly survey of economists at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showed that the economists made a downward revision to New Zealand’s 2019 growth forecasts.Key Highlights:“Annual GDP growth is expected to peak at 2.9 percent for the year to March 2021 before moderating to 2.5 percent in the subsequent year. New Zealand dollar TWI been revised higher throughout the projection period. Core inflation point to underlying inflation pressures remaining contained.” Interest rate forecasts have been revised down.
EUR/USD has ranged between 1.1300 and 1.1345 of late, although on a wider perspective, the 50% Fibo of the latest swing high to low, located in the 1.2980s has been a support structure that if broken could give way to the 1.1230s - 23.5% Fibo of the same range between 1.1420 and 1.1180. On the upside, bulls can look for a test of the 1.14 handle on a break of 1.1370 and the 78.6% fibo (confluence with the 20th Feb highs). However, the decision trendline at that juncture could be problematic and spark a bearish move back in line within the descending channel - making for fresh lows for the month of April.    

Reuters reports the latest comments from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Sunday, who was speaking at a press briefing in Baku, Al-Fa

Reuters reports the latest comments from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Sunday, who was speaking at a press briefing in Baku, Al-Falih noted: “The job of OPEC and its allies was not done yet adding that the group of oil producers needed to “stay the course” at least until June when the current global supply cut agreement is due to expire.” Saudi Arabia’s oil production in April will be below its output target under the OPEC-led deal. “We will continue to lead by example and do what we have to do.” 

AUD/JPY 4-Hour chart AUD/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 79.05     Today Daily change: 0.08 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.10%     Today Da

AUD/JPY took a U-turn from two-week-old ascending trendline as it trades near 79.10 during early Monday.23.6% Fibonacci retracement of February 08 to 21 upside, at 79.30 acts as immediate resistance for the pair, a break of which can propel it to a descending resistance-line stretched since February 21 around 79.45.Assuming buyers’ ability to conquer 79.45, 79.60, 79.85 and 80.00 could flash in their radar.Meanwhile, a downside break of 78.90 support-line figure might drag the quote to 78.50, 78.30 and 78.00 consecutive supports.Additional downside under 78.00 can avail 77.70 and 77.40 as rest points.AUD/JPY 4-Hour chartAdditional important levels:Overview:
    Today Last Price: 79.05
    Today Daily change: 8 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.10%
    Today Daily Open: 78.97
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 78.97
    Daily SMA50: 78.62
    Daily SMA100: 79.7
    Daily SMA200: 80.53
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 79.25
    Previous Daily Low: 78.85
    Previous Weekly High: 79.25
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.91
    Previous Monthly High: 79.85
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.44
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 79.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 79
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.8
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 78.62
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 78.4
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.2
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.42
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.6  

Japan's trade surplus with the US fell 0.9 percent year-on-year to JPY 624.9 billion in February. Exports to US registered 2 percent growth, while imp

Japan's trade surplus with the US fell 0.9 percent year-on-year to JPY 624.9 billion in February. Exports to US registered 2 percent growth, while imports jumped 4.9 percent.  While surplus declined, it is still large enough to raise concerns among Japanese auto exporters that Washington may unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts. Other detailsShipments to Asia fell 1.2 percent in the recording period Exports to China jumped 5.5 percent.  Exports to South Korea dropped 13.2 percent, while those to Singapore fell 18.2 percent. Overall imports declined 6.7 percent, the biggest drop since November 2016.

The British Pound (GBP) is taking bids around 148.20 versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) during early Monday. The GBP/JPY pair is under pressure due to rece

Major support for the Brexit deadline extension supersedes uncertainty surrounding PM May’s political command and/or her third proposal for a vote.Irish backstop keeps playing its role to restrict the Brexit proposal acceptance.The British Pound (GBP) is taking bids around 148.20 versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) during early Monday. The GBP/JPY pair is under pressure due to recent headlines from the UK politics challenging Theresa May but has managed to remain up on expectations of an orderly British exit from the EU. Ever since the UK members of parliament (MPs) voted to extend the Article 50 deadline from March 29 on Thursday, speculations surrounding an orderly Brexit have gained momentum. The British PM Theresa May said she could request the EU to allow for three months of extension if her re-revised Brexit proposal gains parliament support. While the majority of lawmakers were favoring the developments, a bunch of them were preparing to oust PM May from her seat. In doing so, some 40 MPs propose May to offer her resignation by April in exchange for their support for the third Brexit proposal.  Additionally, the UK Telegraph also came up with a report that ex-foreign minister Boris Johnson urged Eurosceptic MPs to reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a third time if it is put to the vote this week as he warns it gives the EU “an indefinite means of blackmail” against the UK. BBC also ran a story mentioning that the UK’s Chancellor says Theresa May’s third Brexit proposal won’t be up for a vote unless she has support from the Irish political frontier Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Next up in investors’ radar will be developments surrounding whether the British PM can manage to opt for voting on her third Brexit proposal on Tuesday or British lawmakers plot to topple her from the PM seat.GBP/JPY Technical AnalysisIn spite of repeated failures to surpass a downward sloping trend-line joining September high to November high, at 149.00 now, the quote remains well beyond 146.70 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 144.75. Given the pair’s ability to conquer 149.00, 150.00 and 150.70//75 could lure the buyers.

Australia's money markets are convinced that the central bank would cut rates twice in the next 12 months amid worries about an economic slowdown.  S

Australia's money markets are convinced that the central bank would cut rates twice in the next 12 months amid worries about an economic slowdown.  Short-dated bond yields in particular have dropped sharply in the last few days on dovish RBA expectations. For instance, Australia’s 3-year bond yields have dropped almost 50 basis points since early December to within a whisker of the central bank’s 1.5 percent policy rate, according to Bloomberg report.  Also, the aggregate open interest for Australia’s 3-year bond futures has surged to a record high of 2.3 million contracts. That said, the demand for short dated bonds may drop somewhat if the labor market report, scheduled for release this Thursday, shows the stellar run of jobs growth continued in February.  It is worth noting that jobs have remained a bright spot for the economy despite the worsening consumer and business sentiment. 
 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7088 vs Friday's fix of 6.7167.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7088 vs Friday's fix of 6.7167.

EUR/JPY is currently trading at 126.28, representing marginal gains on the day, having created a doji candle on Friday, signaling indecision in the ma

EUR/JPY is currently trading at 126.28, representing marginal gains on the day, having created a doji candle on Friday, signaling indecision in the market place.  Notably, doji has appeared after a four-day winning streak. So, that candle largely represents bullish indecision. The cross, therefore, could see a downside break of the sideways channel established on the hourly chart in the second half of the last week.  A range breakdown, if confirmed, would allow a drop to 125.73 (200-hour moving average). Hourly chartTrend: Bearish EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 126.28
    Today Daily change: 4 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.03
    Today Daily Open: 126.25
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 125.9
    Daily SMA50: 125.2
    Daily SMA100: 126.53
    Daily SMA200: 128.01
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 126.58
    Previous Daily Low: 126.12
    Previous Weekly High: 126.58
    Previous Weekly Low: 124.48
    Previous Monthly High: 126.92
    Previous Monthly Low: 124.16
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 126.29
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 126.4
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 126.05
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 125.85
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 125.58
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 126.52
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 126.78
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 126.98  

USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD trades near 1.3340 at the initial Asian session on Monday. The pair bounced off 100-day simple moving average (SMA) du

USD/CAD daily chartUSD/CAD trades near 1.3340 at the initial Asian session on Monday.The pair bounced off 100-day simple moving average (SMA) during Thursday and Friday, making 1.3285 as strong near-term support.However, 1.3370/75 area comprising highs of January 23-24 and March 13-15 becomes immediate upside barrier for the buyers to conquer.Should the quote rallies past-1.3370, a descending resistance-line joining highs of January and March at 1.3440 could gain market attention as it holds the gate for the pair’s further upside to 1.3470 and 1.3500 resistance levels.Alternatively, pair’s decline below 1.3285 can push sellers toward 50% Fibonacci retracement of October – December upside near 1.3220.It needs to be noted that additional downside beneath 1.3220 may find it hard to sustain as 200-day SMA level of 1.3180 and a five-month-old upward sloping support-line at 1.3160 can challenge bears. USD/CAD 4-Hour chartA horizontal-line comprising February 22 high near 1.3240 can offer an intermediate halt to price decline under 1.3285 toward 1.3220.1.3415 may act as a buffer between 1.3375 and 1.3440. USD/CAD hourly chart1.3200 and 1.3130 are additional supports that come forward on the hourly chart.1.3400 can be considered as an extra upside level to watch.

Theresa May's Brexit deal will not return to the Commons this week unless it has support from the DUP and Tory MPs, the chancellor says, according to

Theresa May's Brexit deal will not return to the Commons this week unless it has support from the DUP and Tory MPs, the chancellor says, according to the BBC.The BBC say that the PM's plan is expected to be voted on for a third time in the coming days.But Philip Hammond told the BBC's Andrew Marr that it would only be put to MPs if "enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it".He did not rule out a financial settlement for Northern Ireland if the DUP backed the deal.The party, which has 10 MPs in the Commons, negotiated £1bn in spending for Northern Ireland as part of a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories - giving the government a working majority.Mr Hammond said they did not have the numbers "yet" to secure Mrs May's deal, adding: "It is a work in progress".More here: Brexit: No new vote on May's deal without DUP support - Chancellor - BBC

USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.51, having hit a high of 111.58 a few minutes before press time.  On the hourly chart, the pair is having a tough

USD/JPY has created a bull flag,  a bullish continuation pattern, on the hourly chart, but so far, the breakout has remained elusive. Japan's imports fell more than exports, leading to a trade surplus in February. The drop in the outbound shipments from the world's third-largest economy has failed to put a bid under the greenback. The flag could be breached on the higher side if the risk assets remain bid and Japan's industrial production, scheduled for release at 04:30 GMT, prints below estimates. USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.51, having hit a high of 111.58 a few minutes before press time.  On the hourly chart, the pair is having a tough time beating the upper edge of the flag - a continuation pattern, which often ends up accelerating the preceding bullish move - even though the Japanese data released earlier today painted a dismal picture of the world's third-largest economy.  The nation logged a goods trade surplus of 339.0 billion yen in February, beating the expected surplus of 310 billion yen.  The better-than-expected trade surplus, however, was the result of a 6.7 percent drop in imports and a 1.2 percent fall in exports.  Notably, the drop in imports indicates that domestic demand is not strong enough to compensate for the weakness in the external sector, meaning the Japanese economy could see a deeper slowdown in the near future.  Even so, the dollar is struggling to pick up a bid, possibly due to 0.14 percent drop in the S&P 500 futures.  The pair will likely rise well above 111.58 later today, confirming a flag breakout, if the futures turn positive. The anti-risk JPY may also take a beating if Japan's industrial production prints below estimates. The data due at 04:30 GMT is expected to show that factory activity contracted 3.7 percent in January. Technical Levels 
GBP/USD is moving towards a breakout point within a rising wedge on the daily chart. As can be seen in the chart below, 1.3290s is a key level and will determine whether the pair breaks out to the top side or fall out of the wedge to the downside on sustained pressures below it.However, the price still has some work to do until it reaches the narrowest point of the wedge and a breakout would be expected to take place within the eclipse if the price supported at 1.3040/50 initially.The price is currently heading back south and trades below the 1.3290 horizontal line with daily stochastics leaning bearish, supporting the correction to the downside within the wedge. A break to the downside and below 1.3040 support would be expected to make way for a continuation of the mid-April commencing bear trend towards the flash crash lows in the 1.2350s and beyond. However, GBP is trading erratically due to Brexit headlines which likely jeopardises the traditional technical chart patterns. A breakout is expected one way or another depending on the outcome of the fundamentals. In such a scenario, the flash crash lows and late 1.40 the figure guarding mid-April highs in the 1.4380s would be targetted. GBP/USD daily chart

British companies could cut their investment plans by most in 10 years in 2019, courtesy of Brexit, even if UK's PM Theresa May secures a deal to ease

British companies could cut their investment plans by most in 10 years in 2019, courtesy of Brexit, even if UK's PM Theresa May secures a deal to ease out of the European Union (EU), British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) said on Monday. Economic forecastsBCC lowered its 2019 GDP forecast for the UK's economy to 1.2 percent from the previous estimate of 1.3 percent.  Business investment is seen falling by an annual 1.0 percent in 2019 but is still expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2020 and 1.1 percent in 2021.Key quotes by BCC's director general, Adam MarshallPolitical inaction has already had economic consequences, with many firms hitting the brakes on investment and recruitment decisions. Some companies have moved investment and growth plans as part of their contingency preparations and some of that may never come back to the UK.
 

AUD/NZD hourly chart AUD/NZD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.0352     Today Daily change: 0.0001 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.01%     Today

AUD/NZD is on bid near 1.0350 during early Monday.In spite of registering gradual recovery since Wednesday, the quote couldn’t surpass 1.0360 horizontal-resistance nearing March 06 low and highs marked during March 08 and 11.However, an upward sloping trend-line connecting Thursday and Friday’s low, at 1.0340, portrays the buyers’ power.Should the quote manage to surpass 1.0360, it can quickly rush through 1.0380 in order to aim for 1.0400 resistance.Also, sustained advances past-1.0400 may help pair to aim for 1.0420 and 1.0435 north-side numbers.On the flipside, pair’s dip beneath 1.0340 support line can recall 1.0320 and 1.03000 levels on the chart whereas 1.0290 could challenge the sellers afterward.In a case prices continue sliding under 1.0290, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of its moves from March 05 to 14, at 1.0270, can please bears.AUD/NZD hourly chartAUD/NZD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.0352
    Today Daily change: 0.0001 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.01%
    Today Daily Open: 1.0351
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0393
    Daily SMA50: 1.0473
    Daily SMA100: 1.0542
    Daily SMA200: 1.0722
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.0361
    Previous Daily Low: 1.0325
    Previous Weekly High: 1.0363
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.0293
    Previous Monthly High: 1.0551
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.0362
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0339
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0347
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0331
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.031
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.0295
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0367
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0382
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0402  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.8% in March

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.4% in March from previous 0.7%

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance came in at ¥116.1B, above forecasts (¥-254.4B) in February

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥339B, above forecasts (¥310.2B) in February

Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -6.7% below forecasts (-5.8%) in February

Japan Exports (YoY) registered at -1.2%, below expectations (-0.9%) in February

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7080 at the initial Asian sessions on Monday. Having failed to cross 0.7100 round-figure during last week's recovery, t

Sentiment challenging a trade deal that includes its largest consumer China restricts the AUD/USD pair’s upside.USD weakness on soft data remains favorable to the buyers.The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7080 at the initial Asian sessions on Monday. Having failed to cross 0.7100 round-figure during last week's recovery, the quote seems to find it hard to confront downbeat reports from the US-China trade front. However, China’s pledge to keep supporting growth and the US Dollar (USD) weakness is likely limiting the pair’s downside. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has recently benefited from the USD’s decline despite sustained weakness in China’s headline data. The January month industrial production from China dropped to nearly a decade low with 5.3% growth versus 5.5% market consensus and 5.7% prior. The much-anticipated reason for the AUD/USD pair’s strength is likely decline of the USD due to soft data and market’s risk-off sentiment. Headline statistics from the US like retail sales, consumer price index (CPI) and industrial production all registered soft figures during last-week and favored the US Dollar’s decline at a time when Brexit uncertainties were pushing investors to safe-havens. Reports concerning the trade deal between the US and China were also rising after criticism of China’s human rights violation by the US lawmakers and a question mark on the final trade meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. However, China’s pledges to support growth at a press conference to end the National People’s Congress meeting pleased Aussie traders off-late. Aussie traders may now look forward to developments surrounding the US-China trade deal in order to determine near-term market moves as lack of data confines catalysts.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisRepeated failures to surpass 0.7100 during last-week highlight the weakness in trade sentiment that can drag the quote back to 0.7050-45 and 0.7015 supports. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 0.7100 needs to break a descending resistance-line from January-end, at 0.7130, to challenge 100-day simple moving average around 0.7160.

The South China Morning Post has said that an April meeting has been described as less likely: The two sides could be able to reach an agreement by

The South China Morning Post has said that an April meeting has been described as less likely:The two sides could be able to reach an agreement by the middle of the year.One stumbling block appears to be the demand from some in the White House for an enforcement mechanism to ensure China lives up to its promises.More here: Trump-Xi meeting to end trade war may be pushed back to June
While the price may have dropped below 1300, ATR and momentum indicators suggested that the downside was overdone on Thursday.Friday's price action took the bulls back into bullish territory within the ascending channel with eyes on a break of 1320 while trading above 1275.First, bulls can target 1315 as the next key target that meets the trend-line prior support of the rising channel - 1313 is the 50% Fibo target. 1332 guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19. 1275 is a key support and a break below it will put the attention back to the towards to 1250, a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance.Support levels: 1291 1280 1270.Resistance levels: 1312 1322 1332.

Having witnessed another defeat at the UK parliament during last week, the British PM Theresa May is likely to bear one more disappointment at Tuesday

Having witnessed another defeat at the UK parliament during last week, the British PM Theresa May is likely to bear one more disappointment at Tuesday’s voting as The UK Telegraph came out with a story stating ex-foreign minister Boris Johnson adding difficulties for PM May.   The report says that Boris Johnson has urged Eurosceptic MPs to reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a third time if it is put to the vote this week as he warns it gives the EU “an indefinite means of blackmail” against the UK. Mr. Johnson urges Mrs. May to postpone the vote and use the summit to seek “real change” to the North Irish backstop, the news report says he wrote in the Telegraph.

WTI is taking bids near $58.50 during early Asian sessions on Monday. The energy benchmark recently benefited from the US inventory reports and commen

Energy buyers hold their grip as comments favoring supply-cuts disappoint sellers.Restricting the rally is obstacles around the trade deal between the US and China coupled with doubts concerning global economic growth.WTI is taking bids near $58.50 during early Asian sessions on Monday. The energy benchmark recently benefited from the US inventory reports and comments from global oil producers’ favoring further supply cuts. However, uncertainties surrounding the US-China trade deal and doubts over the global economic growth continue to challenge bulls. The EIA crude oil stocks change dropped -3.862 million during the week ended on March 08 versus previous week’s +7.069 million addition. With the depleting inventory figures, energy traders took benefit of the USD’s weakness to increase buying bets on the WTI. Also adding to the energy strength were upbeat comments from the global oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Both the leaders of the OPEC+ alliance kept on favoring further production cuts in order to balance the global energy market. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (EIA) came out with its February month output report that mentioned OPEC’s production declining to a four-year low. Recently, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia said that the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) may need to extend oil cuts until the year 2019 end at the sidelines of an OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting. Adding to the supply-cut speculations were comments from the Russian energy minister that said the nation could continue supporting the alliance’s production-cut goal. Though, doubts over a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies and looming concerns of a global economic growth continue to challenge energy bulls. Latest comments from the US lawmakers and a delay Trump-Xi meet from March raises expectations that the US and China are still far from solving their trade differences that have been challenging global economic sentiment off-late.WTI Technical AnalysisFXStreet Analysis, Ross J Burland, expects prices to extend bullish trajectory above $59.70 double top whereas $57.93 acts as immediate support to watch. On the approach to the 50% Fibo located in the 59.70s, the price holds above the double-top highs and above the 57.93 horizontal prior resistance line going back to mid-Nov 2018. However, a break of 59.70 is needed where bulls will then look beyond to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows at 63.74, reviving prospects for the 70 handle. On the downside, a fall to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure.

  On the approach to the 50% Fibo located in the 59.70s, the price holds above the double-top highs and above the 57.93 horizontal prior resistan

 On the approach to the 50% Fibo located in the 59.70s, the price holds above the double-top highs and above the 57.93 horizontal prior resistance line going back to mid-Nov 2018. However, a break of 59.70 is needed where bulls will then look beyond to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows at 63.74, reviving prospects for the 70 handle. On the downside, a fall to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure. Pivots to the downside are 58.40 57.97 57.67.Pivots on the upside are 59.13 60.00 61.95. 

Reuters is running a story today that Saudi Arabia has said that 'OPEC’s job in rebalancing the oil market was far from done as global inventories wer

Reuters is running a story today that Saudi Arabia has said that 'OPEC’s job in rebalancing the oil market was far from done as global inventories were still rising despite harsh U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, signalling it may need to expand output cuts into the second half of 2019'.More here: Saudi signals OPEC may need to extend oil cuts until end-2019
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