This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before january 5, 2026.
In quite an erratic week, the US Dollar (USD) reversed Tuesday’s marked advance and shifted its attention to the opposite direction on the back of jitters surrounding the Fed’s independence as well as swelling speculation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its rebound on Wednesday, rising for a fifth straight day as escalating unrest in Iran fuels a fresh geopolitical risk premium.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is still quite far from where they need it to be even though the economy has been pretty resilient at the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2026 Economic Outlook event on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said that the overall economy seems quite resilient and that He has seen less tariff pass through than expected at the Midwest Economic Forecast Forum hosted online by the Wisconsin Bankers Association on Wednesday.
Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden said that wages will remain a key focus for him this year and that his view is that policy remains restrictive in a speech at King's College, in London on Wednesday.
NZD/USD trades higher on Wednesday, hovering around 0.5750 at the time of writing, up 0.25% on the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after fresh warnings from Japanese authorities revived speculation of possible intervention to curb excessive Yen weakness.
The British Pound extended its gains on Wednesday as the Greenback is punished by investors due to threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence and a verbal intervention by Japanese officials, boosted the Yen. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3461 up by 0.30%.
Federal Reserve (Fed) governor Stephen Miran said that he thinks deregulation should put downward pressure on prices, and stated that if central banks don't accommodate the impact of deregulation, it makes policy too tight, in a speech at the Delphi Economic Forum in Athens on Wednesday.
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 3.391M, above expectations (-2.2M) in January 9
President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari defended Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, and said that interest rates should be held steady this month in an interview with the New York Times on Wednesday.
President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia Anna Paulson said on Wednesday that she sees further rate cuts later this year if the forecast meets their expectations.
United States Business Inventories came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in October
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (4.21M) in December: Actual (4.35M)
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) up to 5.1% in December from previous 0.5%
AUD/USD trades around 0.6680 on Wednesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest a series of key macroeconomic releases from the United States (US) and Asia.
Renewed geopolitical tensions and rising oil volatility have reconnected EUR/NOK with crude dynamics, setting the stage for potential NOK strength if supply risks escalate, Société Générale's FX analysts Olivier Korber and Kit Juckes reports.
EUR/CHF is gradually moving higher as easing geopolitical tensions trigger a partial unwind of the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) safe-haven premium, Société Générale's FX analysts Olivier Korber and Kit Juckes reports.
The Euro (EUR) is trading marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD), consolidating after its retreat from late-December highs as European Central Bank (ECB) commentary strikes a more balanced tone, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Euro (EUR) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with traders showing a muted reaction to the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady, up fractionally vs. the US Dollar (USD) as it trades in a tight consolidation range following its decline from late December. The recovery in oil prices is important and is offering the CAD some fundamental support.
US Producer Prices rose 3.0% in November from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The print came in above estimates and October’s 2.8% gain.
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) increased to 2.9% in October from previous 2.6%
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.3% in October
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in October
The Euro (EUR) trims part of its gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday as traders digest remarks from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials amid a thin economic calendar on both sides.
United States Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (October) vs previous 0.3%
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in November
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) increased to 3% in October from previous 2.6%
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.7%) in November: Actual (3%)
United States Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.2% (October) vs previous 0.3%
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.7% to 3% in October
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.5%, above expectations (2.7%) in November
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) declined to 0% in October from previous 0.1%
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in November: Actual (0%)
United States Retail Sales Control Group declined to 0.4% in November from previous 0.8%
United States Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 3.5% to 3.3% in November
United States Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in November
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.4%) in November
United States Current Account up to $-226.4B in 3Q from previous $-251.3B
United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.4%) in November
USD/CHF trades around 0.8010 on Wednesday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. The pair draws mild support from the US Dollar (USD) after US inflation data were released broadly in line with market expectations.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high above $4,630 ahead of the US session opening.
Gold (XAU/USD) regains a positive footing on Wednesday after a shallow pullback from record highs the previous day, as lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its bullish momentum on Wednesday and trades around $90.50 at the time of writing, up 4.30% on the day.
United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous 0.3% to 28.5% in January 9
The USD/CAD pair trades flat around 1.3885 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair consolidates ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October and November, and the Retail Sales data for November.
USD/JPY eased below 159.00 after hitting 159.45 overnight, prompting fresh warnings from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama against speculative or excessive yen movements, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/CNH remains just above this week’s cyclical low near 6.9600 as China’s December trade data exceeded expectations, with both exports and imports showing solid year-on-year growth, BBH FX analysts report.
The Japanese Yen is trimming some losses on Wednesday as the US Dollar recovery falters.
US inflation came in softer than consensus and notably below our own expectation of a 0.4% month‑on‑month core reading.
Prices of Gold and Silver reversed the earlier dip to trade fresh highs for the session. The earlier dip was a knee-jerk response to new margin changes.
Germany 30-y Bond Auction increased to 3.45% from previous 3.26%
European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the allocation of funds for Ukraine’s military and budget support during the European trading session on Wednesday.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 6.9650 and 6.9800. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction: 4.456% vs previous 4.613%
Oil prices climbed sharply, with Brent rising toward multi‑week highs near the mid‑$60s as escalating unrest in Iran and the threat of U.S. tariffs on countries trading with Tehran boosted supply disruption fears and added a geopolitical risk premium to crude markets, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Sion
Strong momentum indicates further US Dollar (USD) strength; the significant resistance at 160.00 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, strong USD rally has scope to extend, potentially breaking above 160.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Speculation over early elections in Japan has driven renewed Japanese Yen (JPY) underperformance, pushing USD/JPY toward the 160 level while lifting JGB yields and domestic equities.
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8660 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.12% on the day, as the Pound Sterling (GBP) benefits from cautious investor positioning ahead of UK growth data.
The New Zealand Dollar is ticking higher on Wednesday but remains trading within Tuesday’s range, with upside attempts capped below 0.5750 and FX volatility subdued.
Japan’s Ruling Ishin Party Leader Yoshimura said during European trading hours on Wednesday that Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi will call a snap election at the beginning of the parliamentary session.
Slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 0.5720/0.5765 rather than a continued decline. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Silver has extended its breakout and is approaching the upper boundary of a steep ascending channel near $96.50–$97.00, with momentum indicators at multi-year highs despite clear signs of an overstretched trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
There is a chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to test 0.6670; the major support at 0.6655 is not expected to come into view. In the longer run, the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6655 and 0.6745, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/USD is practically flat on Wednesday, trading just below 1.1650 at the time of writing, with one-month lows in the 1.1615 area in sight, which are at a relatively short distance.
There seems to be no way of stopping the USD/JPY rally. Speculation of snap elections is mounting, and the return of some degree of political risk premium is offering another chance to test Japan’s tolerance band on its currency.
GBP/JPY eases below 214.00 after hitting fresh all-time highs at 214.30.
Pullback has scope to extend; the major support at 1.3390 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, GBP is likely in a range-trading phase between 1.3390 and 1.3520, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
December’s softer-than-expected US core CPI suggests tariff-driven inflation pressures may be fading, but shutdown-related distortions leave markets confident the Fed will hold rates steady in January, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains against its major peers, except antipodeans, on Wednesday. The British currency trades higher ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data, which will be released on Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price halts its four-day winning streak, trading around $60.40 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices lost ground as Venezuela resumed exports.
A US delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio meets Danish and Greenlandic officials today, but markets have so far priced little risk from US threats, leaving only modest scope for any geopolitical premium to unwind, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Slight increase in downward momentum could lead to Euro (EUR) edging lower, but a break of 1.1615 appears unlikely.
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a speech during European trading hours on Wednesday that there are noticeable downside growth risks due to geopolitical woes.
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor said in a summit at National University of Singapore that he expects interest rates to fall to their neutral levels soon.
The AUD/USD pair is recovering its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.6700 during the European hours on Wednesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a weakening bullish bias as the pair is positioned slightly below the ascending channel pattern.
EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session and reaches fresh all-time highs, trading around 185.40 during the early European hours on Wednesday.
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said during European trading hours on Wednesday that the government could intervene due to one-way excessive moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) climbed from previous 12.1% to 23% in November
The United States (US) Census Bureau will publish November Retail Sales on Wednesday. The delayed data is expected to show that sales rose a modest 0.4% in the month, following no change in October.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that he still intends to lift interest rates if economic and price development are in line with the forecast, wages and prices rise moderately, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is inching lower after registering modest gains in the previous session. The DXY hovers around 99.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, January 14:
India WPI Inflation came in at 0.83%, above expectations (0.3%) in December
The USD/JPY pair posts a fresh one-and-a-half-year high near 159.45 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to underperform across the board amid political uncertainty in Japan.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades higher against the US Dollar in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair drops to near 90.30 as the Indian Rupee gains on the outcome of trade talks between the United States (US) and India on Tuesday.
The USD/CHF pair posts modest gains around 0.8010 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Greenback strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after US inflation data that was broadly in line with estimates.
EUR/USD moves little after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator, currently at 40 (below the 50 midline), signals weak momentum without indicating oversold conditions.
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds toward the record high of $4,634.64 reached in the previous session, trading around $4,620.00 per troy ounce on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fourth trading day on Wednesday. The white metal rallies further to near $90.00 during the Asian trading session as demand for safe-haven assets remains firm amid geopolitical tensions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.70 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price declines as Venezuela resumes exports and the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows a big build in US crude inventories.
USD/CAD remains stronger for the second successive session, trading around 1.3900 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
China Trade Balance USD above expectations ($113.6B) in December: Actual ($114.1B)
China Exports (YoY) CNY dipped from previous 5.7% to 5.2% in December
China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (0.9%) in December: Actual (5.7%)
China Trade Balance CNY rose from previous 792.57B to 808.8B in December
China Exports (YoY) registered at 6.6% above expectations (3%) in December
AUD/USD holds ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 0.6680 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3425 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Traders brace for the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data later on Wednesday.
NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5730 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price fell from previous -1.6% to -2.1% in December
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY): 1.7% (December) vs previous 1.8%
The General Administration of Customs will publish its data for December on Wednesday at 03.00 GMT. Trade balance is expected to widen to $113.60B in December, compared to $111.68B in the previous reading.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to around $4,600 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as traders firm up bets on US interest rate cuts after the release of inflation data.
EUR/USD trades with losses on Tuesday even though the latest inflation in the United States was benign, hinting that the Federal Reserve could indeed reduce interest rates as priced in by the financial markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1642, down by over 0.20%.
The USD/JPY pair jumps to near 159.15, the highest since July 2024, during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid concerns about looser fiscal and monetary policy in Japan.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday that countries that safeguard monetary policy autonomy tend to achieve better economic outcomes, as political pressure on the US Federal Reserve remains in focus.
South Korea Unemployment Rate increased to 4% in December from previous 2.7%