Forex News Timeline

Friday, April 26, 2024

The Aussie Dollar begins Friday’s Asian session on the right foot against the Greenback after posting gains of 0.33% on Thursday.

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The AUD/USD advance was sponsored by a United States report showing the economy is growing below estimates while inflation picked up. The pair traded at 0.6518, virtually unchanged. AUD/USD reflects continued market reaction to US data Wall Street ended Thursday’s session with losses, which usually could’ve affected the Forex markets, but it didn’t. The US Dollar is under pressure following the release of a softer-than-expected GDP report, which, coupled with a surprise on a higher Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) on a quarterly basis, spurred investors to priced out rate cuts by the Fed. Market pricing for the Fed's first 25 basis point (bps) rate cut was pushed back from September to November. Other US data revealed that the labor market is still solid. There were 207 K Americans filing for unemployment claims, below estimates of 214K and the previous reading of 212 K. AUD/USD traders sent the pair sliding towards its daily low of 0.6485 before recovering some ground. As Friday’s session begins, they will be eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Australia and the US Core PCE figures on a monthly basis during the North American session. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Despite registering gain for the fourth straight day, the AUD/USD remains bearishly biased, with price action at 0.6525 below the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). If bulls gather momentum and push prices above that level, up next would be the 100-DMA at 0.6585, standing on their way to 0.6600. Conversely, further weakness could drag the pair below 0.6500. This paves the way for subsequent losses, with the next key support level at 0.6442, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low at 0.6362.Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

ANZ's New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slipped another 4 points to 82.1 in April, declining to the indicator's lowest levels since 2008.

ANZ's New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slipped another 4 points to 82.1 in April, declining to the indicator's lowest levels since 2008. Despite the decline, New Zealand consumer confidence remains higher than it did at the height of the pandemic. Consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.4% from 4.5%, though housing price inflation expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Market reaction NZD/USD continues to trade in a tight but rough range as markets gear up for the early Friday session, stuck near the 0.5950 level. About the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence The Consumer Confidence released by the ANZ is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declined to 82.1 in April from previous 86.4

The NZD/USD pair stands at 0.5949, registering daily gains on Thursday’s session.

The daily chart reveals a bearish bias for the NZD/USD pair underlined by its positioning below major SMAs.For bullish traction to take place, buyers must reclaim control over the 20-day SMA SMAs.Indicators on the daily chart recovered.The NZD/USD pair stands at 0.5949, registering daily gains on Thursday’s session. The prevailing outlook, as presented on the daily chart, shows a strong bearish control as the Kiwi continues to trade below the significant Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Minor upticks visible in the short term do not suggest a meaningful trend reversal. For a bullish revival, bears must cede control to the buyers who would then need to gain the upper hand over the key 20-day SMA to start talking. On the daily chart, The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NZD/USD pair continues within a negative trend territory. However, some signals of possible market correction exist as the RSI values hint at upward momentum. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising green bars, indicating buyers are gradually edging in against the sellers, lending positive momentum to the market. NZD/USD daily chart Moving on to the hourly chart, the RSI also persists in a negative trend, but the latest hour displays an upswing, carrying the indicator above the 50 mark which, paired with decreasing red bars on the MACD histogram, might suggest a short-term trend reversal or correction. NZD/USD hourly chart Assessing the overall landscape, the NZD/USD is in a definitive downtrend, underpinned by its position below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This situation suggests a prolonged bearish momentum as both short-term and long-term traders are selling the pair. Thursday's price movement raises another red flag as an attempted recovery by buyers has been rejected at the 20-day SMA at the 0.5960 level, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction and the potential for further downside. With these considerations, the outlook remains tilted in favor of sellers.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.595 Today Daily Change 0.0015 Today Daily Change % 0.25 Today daily open 0.5935   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5961 Daily SMA50 0.6052 Daily SMA100 0.6117 Daily SMA200 0.605   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5958 Previous Daily Low 0.592 Previous Weekly High 0.5954 Previous Weekly Low 0.5851 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5944 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5935 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5917 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5899 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5879 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5956 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5976 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5994    

On Thursday, the Euro rose against the US Dollar after US economic data portrayed the economy as weaker than expected.

EUR/USD rises due to US GDP shortfall and elevated inflation data.Technical resistance near 50 and 200-day MAs at 1.0805/07; 100-DMA at 1.0848 next hurdle.Downside below 1.0694 could retest year's low at 1.0601, possibly extending to 1.0516.On Thursday, the Euro rose against the US Dollar after US economic data portrayed the economy as weaker than expected. At the same time, the inflation figure prompted investors to price out the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.0729, up by 0.29%. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD remains bearishly biased, but in the short term, it could test the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at 1.0805/07. If buyers clear that stir resistance, buyers must crack the 100-DMA at 1.0848. Subsequent gains are seen above that level, with the 1.0900 mark up next. On the flip side, if EUR/USD sellers drag the spot price below the February 14 low of 1.0694, that would pave the way toward the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.0601, followed by the November 1, 2023, intermediate support at 1.0516. EUR/USD Price Action – Daily ChartEUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0729 Today Daily Change 0.0030 Today Daily Change % 0.28 Today daily open 1.0699   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0735 Daily SMA50 1.0808 Daily SMA100 1.0849 Daily SMA200 1.081   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0714 Previous Daily Low 1.0678 Previous Weekly High 1.069 Previous Weekly Low 1.0601 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0692 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.07 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.068 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0661 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0643 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0716 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0733 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0752    
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