Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

16:03 CAD stuck in Narrow range – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady and rangebound, supported by bond market dynamics but capped by softer energy prices and equity volatility.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady and rangebound, supported by bond market dynamics but capped by softer energy prices and equity volatility. USD/CAD trades slightly below fair value, with resistance near 1.38 and support in the low 1.37s keeping price action contained, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USMCA comments limit USD upside"The CAD is little changed on the session and remains generally rangebound. Trends in cash bond and swap spreads remain CAD-supportive but equity market volatility and softer energy prices are moderate headwinds for the CAD. The CAD’s fair value estimate has slipped a little as a result (1.3805 this morning), leaving the USD still trading at a slight discount to its estimated equilibrium.""That may restrain the CAD somewhat and help sustain range trading for now. Bloomberg reported late yesterday that USTR Greer had indicated to US lawmakers in a briefing that he supports the US remaining in the USMCA but the president will keep his options open." "The CAD has slipped into a sideways range trade after the early week drop to the low 1.37 area. The ceiling on funds looks fairly solid at 1.3790/00. A push above here may see the USD rebound extend to the mid/upper 1.38s. Support is 1.3725/30."

16:00 Lagarde speech: Stronger Euro could bring down inflation
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Follow FXStreet's ECB Live Coverage hereKey quotes"Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations continue to stand at around 2%.""Trade tensions have eased but volatile environment remains a risk.""Outlook for inflation continues to be more uncertain than usual.""Stronger Euro could bring down inflation."

15:55 Lagarde speech: Global environment is likely to remain a drag
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Follow FXStreet's ECB Live Coverage hereKey quotes"Eurozone economy is resilient.""Service-led growth to continue in near term.""Domestic demand main growth engine in years ahead.""Savings rate should come down.""Government expenditure on infrastructure and defense should underpin investment.""Global environment is likely to remain a drag.""Underlying inflation remains consistent with 2% medium-term target.""Wage growth to ease in coming quarters before stabilising below 3% towards end-2026."

15:53 EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools
The Euro (EUR) regains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its three key policy rates unchanged. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1756, reversing higher after dipping to an intraday low near 1.1712.

15:44 US weekly Initial Jobless Claims decline to 224,000 vs. 225,000 expected
There were 224,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending December 13, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 225,000.

Initial Jobless Claims in the US fell by 13,000 in the week ending December 13.The US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 98.50.There were 224,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending December 13, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 225,000.In this period, the 4-week moving average declined by 5,00 to 217,500."The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 6 was 1,897,000, an increase of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level," the DOL noted in its press release.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays on the back foot and was last seen losing 0.1% on the day at 98.30.

15:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 330.54 to 331.07 in November
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 330.54 to 331.07 in November

15:31 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) up to 1.1% in October from previous -1.1%
Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) up to 1.1% in October from previous -1.1%

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.897M below forecasts (1.94M) in December 5
United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.897M below forecasts (1.94M) in December 5

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.122 below forecasts (325.13) in November
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.122 below forecasts (325.13) in November

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey below forecasts (3) in December: Actual (-10.2)
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey below forecasts (3) in December: Actual (-10.2)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in November
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in November

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (3%) in November: Actual (2.6%)
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (3%) in November: Actual (2.6%)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.12 below forecasts (325.13) in November
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.12 below forecasts (325.13) in November

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K below forecasts (225K) in December 12
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K below forecasts (225K) in December 12

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 217.5K (December 12) vs 216.75K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 217.5K (December 12) vs 216.75K

15:16 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $741.5B to $741B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $741.5B to $741B

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with expectations (2.15%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with expectations (2.15%)

15:07 GBP/CAD firms as BoE delivers a cautious rate cut
The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Wednesday, reversing earlier losses as markets digest the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest monetary policy decision. At the time of writing, GBP/CAD trades near 1.8478, rebounding from a daily low around 1.8384.

14:30 GBP/JPY nudges higher after BoE cut, BoJ decision in focus
The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday in the initial reaction to the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 208.40, edging modestly higher after finding support near an intraday low of 207.87.

14:24 EUR/GBP dips to 0.8750 session lows following BoE’s decsion
The Euro accelerated its decline from levels near 0.8800 against the Pound Sterling, to reach intra-day lows near 0.8750 at the time of writing, with the weekly low of 0.8745 at a short distance.The Bank of England met the market’s expectations and cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on Th

14:02 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi hits 0.5755 support as bullish momentum eases
The New Zealand Dollar has failed to draw any significant support from the strong New Zealand GDP figures and is losing ground against the US Dollar. The pair is hovering right above the 0.5755 support area at the time of writing, after having peaked at 0.5830 last week.

14:01 Gold eases within range as US CPI looms
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates with modest losses on Thursday as traders trim exposure ahead of the US inflation report. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,325, remaining confined to the familiar range that has dominated price action so far this week.

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets expectations (0)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets expectations (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged meets forecasts (4)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged meets forecasts (4)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.75%)
United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.75%)

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (3%) in October: Actual (3.4%)
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (3%) in October: Actual (3.4%)

13:58 NZD/USD softens despite strong Q3 GDP – BBH
NZD/USD slipped to 0.5766 as markets digest New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth of 1.1% q/q.

NZD/USD slipped to 0.5766 as markets digest New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth of 1.1% q/q. Despite robust activity across most sectors, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintains that the policy rate will likely remain at 2.25% through 2026, keeping the currency range-bound in the near term, BBH FX analysts report. RBNZ signals policy steady through 2026"NZD/USD is trading heavy near 0.5766. New Zealand real GDP growth overshot expectations in Q3. Real GDP rebounded by 1.1% q/q (consensus: 0.9%, RBNZ projection: 0.4%) vs.-1.0% in Q2. The growth pick-up in Q3 was broad-based, with increases in 14 out of 16 industries.""The RBNZ signaled at its last November meeting that it’s done easing with a policy rate forecast implying no change until Q4 2026 followed by rate hikes in Q1 2027. The swaps curve is more aggressive and price-in 40bps of rate increases over the next twelve months.""Earlier this week, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman pushed back against market expectations for rate hikes next year. Breman stressed that 'if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time'. We agree. There’s still significant spare capacity in the New Zealand economy, with the output gap projected to average -1.1% of potential GDP over 2026 vs. -1.6% in 2025. NZD/USD will likely trade within a 0.5700-0.5860 range in the near-term."

13:50 USD holds firm as markets eye November CPI – BBH
The US Dollar (USD) steadied near yesterday’s highs as investors focus on today’s November CPI release. Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments highlight that policy rates remain above neutral, keeping the door open for future easing despite sticky inflation around 3% y/y, BBH FX analysts report.

The US Dollar (USD) steadied near yesterday’s highs as investors focus on today’s November CPI release. Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments highlight that policy rates remain above neutral, keeping the door open for future easing despite sticky inflation around 3% y/y, BBH FX analysts report. Fed’s Waller maintains dovish tone amid elevated rates"USD is firmer near yesterday’s intra-day high; US equity futures point to a modest recovery following yesterday’s tech-driven stock market slump; and Treasury yields edged lower across the curve.""Fed Governor Christopher Waller stuck to his dovish bias yesterday pointing out that the Fed funds rate is still 50 to 100bps above neutral. In contrast, most other major central banks have reached neutral policy settings and signaled their done easing. Bottom line: relative monetary policy remains a drag for USD.""US November CPI takes the spotlight on today. Headline and core inflation are expected to remain sticky around 3% y/y in November, signaling stalled progress towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Nevertheless, upside risks to prices are not martializing and leaves scope for the Fed to ease policy. The ISM prices paid indexes point to moderating inflation pressures."

13:45 EUR/USD hlds above 1.1700 ahead of ECB meeting – BBH
EUR/USD trades above 1.1700 as markets await today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The central bank is expected to keep rates at 2.00%, with President Lagarde’s remarks on future hikes likely to influence the euro’s near-term direction, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD trades above 1.1700 as markets await today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The central bank is expected to keep rates at 2.00%, with President Lagarde’s remarks on future hikes likely to influence the euro’s near-term direction, BBH FX analysts report. ECB expected to keep policy rate steady at 2.00%"EUR/USD is down but trading above yesterday’s low around 1.1703. ECB is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The statement and updated macroeconomic projections should highlight that the ECB is in a good place to keep rates on hold for some time.""Watch out to see if ECB President Christine Lagarde pushes back against market pricing for rate hikes or shows she is comfortable with them; if she’s comfortable, it will give EUR a boost."

13:42 GBP/USD holds above 1.3310 ahead of BoE rate decision – BBH
GBP/USD trades cautiously above 1.3310 as markets brace for today’s Bank of England meeting. A 25bps cut to 3.75% is widely expected, with a tight 5-4 vote likely, while guidance signaling gradual further easing could pressure the pound on crosses, BBH FX analysts report.

GBP/USD trades cautiously above 1.3310 as markets brace for today’s Bank of England meeting. A 25bps cut to 3.75% is widely expected, with a tight 5-4 vote likely, while guidance signaling gradual further easing could pressure the pound on crosses, BBH FX analysts report. BoE widely expected to deliver 25bps cut to 3.75%"GBP/USD is down but trading above yesterday’s low around 1.3312. The Bank of England (BOE) is widely expected to resume easing with a 25bps cut to 3.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote split may be tight: 5 in favor of a cut versus 4 supporting no change.""More importantly, the BOE will likely stress again that 'if progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path'. That would undermine GBP on crosses."

13:31 USD/JPY rises to near 156.00 ahead of US CPI data, BoJ policy decision
The USD/JPY pair trades higher around 156.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) rises ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

13:04 USD/CAD treads water below 1.3800, awaiting US inflation figures
The US Dollar bounced from three-month lows around 1.3730 against its Canadian Counterpart earlier this week, but has failed to find acceptance above the 1.3800 line.

12:41 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects slightly to near $4,320 ahead of US inflation data
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.4% lower to near $4,320 during the European trading session on Thursday, though it remains close to its all-time high of $4,381.

12:41 Dollar holds above 98 after weak US payrolls – MUFG
The Dollar Index (DXY) found support at 98.000 following November’s weak payrolls report, which confirmed ongoing labor market softness but was not weak enough to prompt an early Fed rate cut.

The Dollar Index (DXY) found support at 98.000 following November’s weak payrolls report, which confirmed ongoing labor market softness but was not weak enough to prompt an early Fed rate cut. Markets now look to March or April for potential easing, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized a gradual approach to returning policy to neutral, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.Fed plans to keep rates on hold in January"The dollar index has found support at the 98.000-level after attempting and failing to break below after the release of the weak nonfarm payrolls report for November. While the report provided further evidence that labour demand remained weak and the US labour market continues to loosen, it has been judged as not weak enough to alter the Fed’s current plans to leave rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting in January.""US rate market pricing for the January FOMC meeting has remained largely unchanged with only around 7bps of cuts priced in. The next Fed cut is not expected until the March or April FOMC meetings. A slower pace of Fed cuts at the start of next year would help to provide more support for the US dollar at a time when the US economy is expected to strengthen driven by a bounce back in activity following the record US government shutdown in Q4 and the boost to growth from stimulus kicking in from President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill." "Dovish Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is still reportedly in the race to become the next Fed Chair, made the case yesterday for further rate cuts. He stated that current monetary policy settings are up to 100bps above neutral. He favours 'steadily' bringing the policy rate down to neutral. He emphasized though that with inflation still above target, the Fed can take it’s time to lower rates, and there’s 'no rush to get down'. The 'very soft' labour market with close to zero jobs growth provides justification to lower the policy rate to neutral."

12:20 USD/JPY holds above 155 ahead of BoJ policy update – MUFG
USD/JPY remains supported above the 155 level as markets await the Bank of Japan’s policy update.

USD/JPY remains supported above the 155 level as markets await the Bank of Japan’s policy update. Despite recent US rate cuts and soft payrolls data, the yen has failed to rebound, leaving its near-term direction dependent on the BoJ’s guidance and outlook for further gradual tightening, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.BoJ guidance key as market prices in 25bps hike"USD/JPY has held up well over the past week, and has even moved further above support at around the 155.00-level overnight. The recent Fed rate cut, soft nonfarm payrolls report and building market expectations for the BoJ to raise rates tomorrow have failed to trigger a bigger rebound for the yen, even as US AI/tech stocks have come under renewed selling pressure over the past week.""The unfavorable price action highlights the risk that the yen weakening trend, that has been in place since Takaichi won the LDP leadership election, could resume heading into year-end if the BoJ’s hawkish policy update disappoints expectations. A 25bps rate hike is already fully priced so the market reaction is more likely to be driven by the updated guidance delivered by Governor Ueda." "We expect the BoJ to stick to guidance that further gradual rate hikes remain likely consistent with our forecast for another hike to be delivered by the middle of next year. However, plans for further gradual tightening may not be sufficient to reverse yen weakness while fiscal concerns remain elevated in Japan. If the yen continues to weaken it will increase pressure on Japan to intervene."

12:09 GBP weak ahead of BoE meeting on weaker CPI – MUFG
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has continued to trade at weaker levels ahead of today’s Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting following the release yesterday of the much weaker than expected UK CPI report for November, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has continued to trade at weaker levels ahead of today’s Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting following the release yesterday of the much weaker than expected UK CPI report for November, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.BoE guidance key for future rate path in 2026"The report has reinforced expectations that the BoE will vote to cut rates today by a further 25bps, and deliver multiple rate cuts in 2026 as well. There is a compelling case for the BoE to continue cutting rates as the policy rate is not yet in neutral territory, inflation and wage growth continues to slow, and weakening labour demand is creating looser labour market conditions." "The main caveats which could still justify caution from more hawkish MPC members include wage growth did not slow as much as expected and core services inflation is still proving sticky. The bigger drop in inflation in November was partially exaggerated as well by early Black Friday discounts. With a 25bps cut fully priced in, market participants will be closely scrutinizing the updated guidance to assess the future path for rate cuts.""Another close 5-4 vote could offer some initial support for the pound while a stronger majority in favour of cut would trigger a further sell-off. We expect the guidance to indicate that further quarterly rate cuts are likely during the 1H of next year. We have been forecasting a low for the policy rate at 3.25% next year, but the risk of more cuts has increased recently supporting our outlook for further pound weakness in 2026."

12:04 EUR: ECB likely to hold rates, signal policy 'in good place' – MUFG
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates on hold today, emphasizing that policy is in a 'good place' as stronger activity, wage, and inflation data lift euro-zone short-term rates.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates on hold today, emphasizing that policy is in a 'good place' as stronger activity, wage, and inflation data lift euro-zone short-term rates. With the BoE still cutting rates, EUR/GBP is likely to rise toward 0.9000 next year, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports.Lagarde hints at upward revision to growth forecasts"The ECB are expected to leave rates on hold today and signal with more confidence that policy is in a 'good place'. Recent activity, wage and inflation data have all surprised to the upside encouraging market participants to scale back expectations for further cuts next year. It has helped to lift short-term rates in the euro-zone providing more support for the euro." "President Lagarde has already indicated that the ECB staff forecasts for growth are likely to be raised. The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the release of the softer euro-zone PMI survey for December. With the ECB keeping rates on hold for longer and the BoE still cutting rates, we expect EUR/GBP to rise up closer to the 0.9000-level next year."

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) increased to 0.5% in October from previous -0.3%
Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) increased to 0.5% in October from previous -0.3%

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 0.9% in October from previous -0.5%
Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 0.9% in October from previous -0.5%

11:49 USD stays range-bound ahead of November CPI – OCBC
The US Dollar (USD) traded in a subdued range overnight as markets await tonight’s November CPI report, which could sway expectations for 2026 rate cuts.

The US Dollar (USD) traded in a subdued range overnight as markets await tonight’s November CPI report, which could sway expectations for 2026 rate cuts. Mild bearish momentum persists, but technical signals hint at a potential breakout, leaving traders poised for two-way moves. DXY was last seen around 98.55 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Fedspeaks suggest caution, but neutral rate in focus"USD traded in subdued range overnight as markets await US CPI data, following the payrolls report on Tuesday. Markets still implied ~26% probability of a Jan cut while expectation for cumulative cut in 2026 remains largely steady at -60bps. There needs to be new catalyst for market pricing to shift. And this puts focus on Nov CPI report tonight. Data outcome can be binary - an underwhelming print should weigh on USD while a hotter print may point to upward pressure on US rates and USD.""Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI showed tentative signs of turning higher from oversold conditions. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Compression of moving averages observed with 21, 50, 200 DMAs converging. This typically precedes break-out trade. Support at 97.90, 97.60 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 98.60 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 99.10/20 levels (21, 50, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low) and 99.80 levels (61.8% fibo)." "On Fedspeaks overnight, Waller supported further rate cuts to get Fed’s setting back to neutral while also saying there is no need for policymakers to rush to cut (because inflation is still up). He also said that rates are still 50 – 100bps above neutral. Goolsbee told CNN in an interview that he is pretty optimistic that the economy will sustain at a stabilized rate that’s pretty decent, and if it can do that and inflation is headed down to something like 2%, I think rates can go down."

11:46 EUR/GBP stalls below 0.8800, awaiting ECB and BoE decisions
The Euro bounced up from the mid-range of the 0.8700s, and maintains a moderately bid tone in the British Pound on Thursday.

11:39 EUR struggles to gain despite rising rate expectations – Commerzbank
The Euro (GBP) has seen little upside despite rising market expectations for interest rate hikes, with recent gains in EUR/USD largely reflecting a weaker US Dollar (USD) rather than stronger euro fundamentals, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The Euro (GBP) has seen little upside despite rising market expectations for interest rate hikes, with recent gains in EUR/USD largely reflecting a weaker US Dollar (USD) rather than stronger euro fundamentals, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. ECB policy boost limited for EUR as hopes remain tentative"Market-based interest rate expectations have recently been revised upward, including for the eurozone. However, the euro has not yet been able to benefit significantly from this, as shown by our currency index, which measures the performance of the single currency against the G10 average. This is certainly due to the fact that hopes for interest rate hikes have been very tentative so far and still seem a long way off.""ECB President Christine Lagarde had already signaled in advance that growth forecasts would be revised upward, so this is likely already priced in. There are also arguments in favor of a more dovish stance: on the one hand, the inflation forecast is expected to be lowered due to the postponement of EU ETS2. On the other hand, the positive growth outlook, especially for the eurozone's largest economy, Germany, has begun to falter, as yesterday's weak Ifo business climate index once again underscored.""There is therefore much to suggest that the euro cannot expect any significant boost from monetary policy in the foreseeable future. However, this is not a major setback for our EUR/USD forecast. For this, it is sufficient for the euro to remain on its recent stable path. In our view, momentum is likely to continue to come primarily from the US dollar. The movement from levels around 1.15 at the end of November to almost 1.18 recently was almost exclusively due to a depreciation of the US currency."

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.08 per troy ounce, down 0.57% from the $66.46 it cost on Wednesday.

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0% in November
South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0% in November

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in November
South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in November

11:20 DXY holds above 98.00 amid quiet US data – ING
The Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported above 98.00 as recent US data and Fed commentary have had little impact, with attention shifting to today’s ECB meetings for potential near-term direction, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported above 98.00 as recent US data and Fed commentary have had little impact, with attention shifting to today’s ECB meetings for potential near-term direction, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Fed’s Waller signals caution, US Dollar mixed"The DXY dollar index remains supported above 98.00. Events this week have so far had little meaningful impact on the dollar, including the speech from the Fed's Chris Waller yesterday. He was generally dovish, citing the soft labour market and outlining that the policy rate was still 50-100bp above neutral. Yet he was in no rush to cut rates and the chance of a January Fed rate cut is still priced at just 25%. We favour a cut in March.""Unless the weekly jobless claims number spikes today, we doubt the US data will move the dollar much at all. That includes a reading on the delayed CPI data, where the November headline figure is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year, feeding into the sticky inflation narrative. Yet that looks unlikely to prompt a major re-assessment of the Fed trajectory.""We suspect DXY will be dragged around by the European central bank meetings today. Some downside risk to European currencies could mean that DXY corrects back to the 98.80 area."

11:14 AUD/USD Price Forecasts: Aussie is clinging to the 0.6600 support area
The Australian Dollar is trading practically flat against the Greenback on Thursday, attempting to hold above a support area right below the 0.6600 line, to put an end to a five-day losing streak, after peaking at 0.6679 on December 10.Recent data from Australia showed that demand for employment dec

11:13 GBP retreats after surprise drop in UK inflation – Commerzbank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) reversed its gains after UK inflation came in below expectations, leaving the market focused on the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate cut today and the potential for further easing in upcoming meetings, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) reversed its gains after UK inflation came in below expectations, leaving the market focused on the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate cut today and the potential for further easing in upcoming meetings, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. BoE rate cut already priced in, market eyes next moves"Yesterday, British inflation figures surprised on the downside across the board. As a result, the pound completely gave up its gains against the euro from the previous day, as the path to further interest rate cuts now seems to be paved. As we have already emphasized, an interest rate cut by the Bank of England today is already priced in. The big question is whether and how many further steps will follow in the next meetings.""After last Friday's disappointing growth figures, the weaker inflation figures now alleviate the Bank of England's dilemma of a weakening economy and inflation above target, at least to some extent. And that would actually be positive for the pound. Inflation had recently proven to be extremely stubborn, which is why the latest interest rate cuts, including today's move, should be viewed with caution." "However, after yesterday's data, it remains to be seen whether price pressure will actually ease sustainably. If this is not the case and the BoE continues to cut interest rates, this would be bad news for the British currency."

11:03 GBP: BOE vote could trigger further Sterling weakness – OCBC
Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened overnight after softer-than-expected CPI data, with technical signals hinting at a possible reversal. Market attention turns to today’s BOE meeting and committee vote, which could drive further downside.

Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened overnight after softer-than-expected CPI data, with technical signals hinting at a possible reversal. Market attention turns to today’s BOE meeting and committee vote, which could drive further downside. Pair was last at 1.3357 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Rising wedge pattern signals possible bearish reversal"GBP fell overnight on softer than expected CPI prints. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but shows tentative signs of fading while RSI eased lower. Rising wedge pattern appears to be forming – typically associated with bearish reversal. Some downside risk is not ruled out." "BOE MPC may be one trigger, the other being USD, owing to CPI releases. For BOE, we would pay close attention on the committee voting. At the last November meeting, committee voted 5-4 to cut rate. A similar split is expected today based on Bloomberg survey. A more dovish shift may be a potential trigger for GBP downside to play out." "Support at 1.3350 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Nov low to Dec high), 1.3290 (21 DMA, 38.2% fibo) and 1.3255 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3460 (Dec high), 1.35 levels."

10:56 EUR/USD tests key multi-month resistance – Société Générale
EUR/USD has extended its rebound after breaking a short-term downtrend, but is now stalling near major resistance around 1.18, where near-term consolidation may decide whether a larger bullish trend unfolds, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/USD has extended its rebound after breaking a short-term downtrend, but is now stalling near major resistance around 1.18, where near-term consolidation may decide whether a larger bullish trend unfolds, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Breakout extends, but pullback emerging"EUR/USD broke out from a short-term descending channel earlier this month resulting in extension of bounce. It has reached the upper part of its multi-month range near 1.1800/1.1830, which could act as an interim resistance zone." "A brief pullback is taking shape; defence of the 50-DMA near 1.1610 would be crucial for persistence in up move. If the pair establishes beyond 1.1800/1.1830, a larger uptrend is likely. The next objectives could be located at September peak of 1.1920 and 1.2000."

10:55 US Dollar Index steadies near 98.50 ahead of CPI data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering little gains in the previous session and trading around 98.50 during the European hours on Thursday.

10:51 EUR/USD steadies with all eyes on the ECB monetary policy decision
EUR/USD posts marginal losses on Thursday, trading near 1.1730 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 1.1700 the previous day. The pair has found some balance halfway through the weekly range after whipsawing earlier in the week.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro consolidates near 1.1750 against the US Dollar, halfway through the weekly range.The pair is likely to remain steady ahead of the ECB's monetary policy decision and US CPI data.The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.EUR/USD posts marginal losses on Thursday, trading near 1.1730 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 1.1700 the previous day. The pair has found some balance halfway through the weekly range after whipsawing earlier in the week.The highlight of the day will be the outcome of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision. The bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark Rate On the Deposit Facility unchanged at 2% and signal steady monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Any nod to a rate hike on the horizon would be considered a hawkish sign and boost the Euro (EUR) higher. In the US, investors will be attentive to the release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for further insight about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy plans. Labour data released earlier in the week has been fairly soft, and the risk now is on a moderate inflation reading, which would pave the path for further monetary easing and increase bearish pressure on the US Dollar (USD) Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% 0.09% 0.08% -0.04% -0.07% 0.17% -0.00% EUR -0.08% -0.00% 0.00% -0.13% -0.15% 0.09% -0.09% GBP -0.09% 0.00% -0.02% -0.13% -0.16% 0.08% -0.10% JPY -0.08% 0.00% 0.02% -0.12% -0.14% 0.07% -0.08% CAD 0.04% 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% -0.02% 0.21% 0.03% AUD 0.07% 0.15% 0.16% 0.14% 0.02% 0.24% 0.06% NZD -0.17% -0.09% -0.08% -0.07% -0.21% -0.24% -0.18% CHF 0.00% 0.09% 0.10% 0.08% -0.03% -0.06% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: Euro remains supported by ECB-Fed divergenceThe Euro downside attempts remain limited so far, with the EUR/USD pair trading near three-month highs as investors anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Fed, while, in the ECB, the next move is likely to be a rate hike.The European Central Bank will, most likely, leave interest rates on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting and stick to the "meeting-by-meeting" rhetoric. Investors, however, will be attentive to the bank's economic growth forecasts, amid growing speculation about the possibility of a rate hike in the second half of 2026.The Fed, on the contrary, is immersed in its easing cycle, which, according to US President Donald Trump, might have a long way to go. Trump said on Wednesday that he will soon announce the name of the next Fed Chairman and that it will be someone who believes in lowering borrowing costs "by a lot".With those comments in the review, the market will be particularly attentive to the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, due later on Thursday. Consumer inflation is expected to have ticked up to a 3.1% year-on-year rate in November from September's 3.0%. October's reading will not be released because the US government shutdown discontinued data collection.On Wednesday, Eurostat revised the Eurozone's November Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) growth to 2.1% year-on-year, from the 2.2% previously estimated. The core HICP was left unchanged at a 2.4% yearly growth.Also on Wednesday, German IFO data showed that the business climate deteriorated for the second consecutive month in December. The headline indicator eased to 87.6 from 88.0 in November, against the market consensus of a moderate improvement to 88.2. The index measuring the sentiment about the current economic situation remained unchanged at 85.6, below market expectations of 85.7, while the Expectations index dropped to 89.7 from 90.5. The market consensus had anticipated a steady reading.In the US, Fed officials continued highlighting their divergences. Governor Christopher Waller, one of Trump's favourite candidates to replace Jerome Powell, said that the central bank has room to cut interest rates further. On the hawkish side, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned about excessive monetary easing amid the lingering inflationary pressures.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains its bullish bias with bears halted at 1.1700EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart

The EUR/USD pair keeps the broader bullish bias intact, as the correction from 1.1800 highs has been contained above 1.1700. On Thursday, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to bullish territory above the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is showing shallower red histogram bars.Immediate support is at Wednesday's low near 1.1700 ahead of an important area near 1.1685, where a trendline support converges with the December 11 low and the December 4 high. A confirmation below this level would cancel the bullish view and bring the December 9 low, at 1.1615, into focus.To the upside, the intraday high, near 1.1760, is likely to challenge bulls ahead of Wednesday's peak, at 1.1804, and the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

10:40 EUR: ECB meeting takes center stage for FX – ING
Markets are focused on whether the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent hawkish shift is confirmed by updated forecasts and rhetoric, with inflation projections the main risk and scope for a short-term dip in EUR/USD despite supportive year-end option dynamics, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Markets are focused on whether the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent hawkish shift is confirmed by updated forecasts and rhetoric, with inflation projections the main risk and scope for a short-term dip in EUR/USD despite supportive year-end option dynamics, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD vulnerable to near-term pullback"Today's ECB meeting will take canter stage in FX markets. After a hawkish turn last week, investors will be looking to see whether that gets backed up with forecast and rhetoric changes today. Examining those forecasts, the CPI profile is likely the biggest risk to the euro. In September, the ECB's forecasts for headline and core inflation were: 2026, 1.7/1.9, and 2027, 1.8/1.9." "The delay in the ETS2 carbon tax could wipe 0.2% off the 2027 headline forecast and a new 2028 CPI forecast somewhere near 1.8% could prove awkward for ECB President Christine Lagarde as she has to explain away an inflation undershoot. There will also be a focus on the growth forecasts: 25/26/27 at 1.2/1.0/1.3 and perhaps some modest upward revisions.""The above could see the short-end of the euro interest rate curve handing back some of the rise in yields seen last week. And that could prompt a brief sell-off in EUR/USD to the 1.1680/1700 area. However, as we mentioned yesterday, there are some large EUR/USD option strikes rolling off in the 1.1750/1800 area over the coming days, which could have an influence on thinning year-end markets."

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (1.75%)
Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (1.75%)

10:29 EUR holds near highs ahead of ECB decision – OCBC
Euro (EUR) consolidated near recent highs. Focus today on European Central Bank (ECB) decision. Policy rate is widely anticipated to be on hold but attention is on staff projection. Recent comments from ECB officials were somewhat more upbeat about economy – from growth to labor market.

Euro (EUR) consolidated near recent highs. Focus today on European Central Bank (ECB) decision. Policy rate is widely anticipated to be on hold but attention is on staff projection. Recent comments from ECB officials were somewhat more upbeat about economy – from growth to labor market. EUR was last seen at 1.1734 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.ECB rhetoric turns more hawkish on inflation"Lagarde hinted at a potential upgrade to the staff projections for growth. Schnabel had earlier struck a hawkish chord in saying that she is rather comfortable with market expectations that ECB’s next move will be a hike though she declined to comment on the timing of next rate move. She went on to caution about inflationary pressure, noting that the decline in core inflation has stalled at a time when the economy is recovering, the output gap is closing, and fiscal policy is expanding." "Kazimir pointed out that the labour market remained tight. On inflation, core CPI rose by 2.4% yoy. Lane noted that had inflation had 'moved in the opposite direction' relative to staff projection for inflation to move below target and on policy outlook. Other members including Kazimir and Villeroy had advocated for hold. On net, such a rhetoric suggests that ECB easing cycle may have ended.""Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose to overbought conditions. Slower pace of gains not ruled out but bias remains to buy on dips. Resistance at 1.1760, 1.1820 levels. Support at 1.1640 (100 DMA), 1.1610 levels (21, 50 DMAs)."

10:23 EUR/JPY is testing 183.15 high ahead of central banks’ decisions
The Yen remains on its back foot on Thursday, despite market expectations that the BoJ will hike interest rates on Friday.

10:19 GBP: BoE set to cut as Sterling positioning stretches – ING
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today, with rising odds of a dovish vote split after weaker November inflation data. This points to near-term downside risks for sterling, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today, with rising odds of a dovish vote split after weaker November inflation data. This points to near-term downside risks for sterling, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Dovish vote split risks short-term GBP dip"The Bank of England announces the policy rate at 1300CET today. A 25bp rate cut to 3.75% is widely expected. Consensus is probably for a 5-4 vote as Governor Andrew Bailey switches to the dovish camp, though the risk is of a 6-3 vote, making this a dovish rate cut. Those risks have increased after yesterday's pleasant surprise in November inflation – including a sharp fall in food prices. We look for further rate cuts in February and April, whereas market pricing only sees one cut during that period.""The above all sounds moderately sterling negative. The problem we have is that speculative positioning remains substantially underweight sterling already. Data published last night from the CFTC, covering activity after the November budget, shows asset managers still running a short position worth 38% of open interest (total positioning). Those levels remain on par with the shortest sterling positioning we have seen over the last five years.""The above could create a game plan where EUR/GBP spikes to the 0.8820/8840 area on the BoE rate cut, but comes all the way back – perhaps even to 0.8750 – on the ECB event risk, which takes place 1-2 hours after the BoE announcement and press conference."

10:18 Pound Sterling is broadly under pressure ahead of BoE rate decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:00 GMT.

10:15 EUR/CAD slips toward 1.6150 due to Oil supply concerns
EUR/CAD pares its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.6160 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross weakens as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens on Oil supply concerns driven by rising geopolitical tensions.

10:15 European Central Bank expected to hold interest rates, markets focus on projections
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its last two-day meeting of the year and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is expected to hold key rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday.ECB President Lagarde is unlikely to offer fresh clues in the press conference following the announcement. EUR/USD could revisit the year’s peak at around 1.1920 in the upcoming days. The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its last two-day meeting of the year and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Financial markets anticipate the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting after reducing them on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility in June to 2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%, respectively.The ECB will also present fresh macroeconomic projections, with the focus on growth and inflation. Finally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference to explain the reasoning behind policymakers’ decision.Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias, despite a near-term retracement, driven mainly by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?The ECB has been among the first to cut interest rates and reach a neutral rate. President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stated that monetary policy is in a “good place,” meaning it is well-positioned to address the current macroeconomic environment. Still, Lagarde has left the door open to any required direction, stating that decisions are data-dependent and that there is a meeting-by-meeting approach with no predetermined path. There are good reasons to believe that she will stick to such a message: On the one hand, the Governing Council has noted that, despite headwinds, the Euro area economy has shown notable resilience. On the other hand, inflation has indeed been higher than expected, but held within reasonable levels. According to the latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), annualized inflation rose by 2.1% in November, while the core annual HICP remained stable at 2.4%. With no changes in interest rates and, most likely, in Lagarde’s words, investors will be taking clues from economic projections. Relative to September’s projections, both inflation and growth have been higher than expected. Yet as noted, inflation at 2.1% YoY is not a concern. Policymakers are likely to revise Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and HICP projections, with inflation most likely revised higher this year and lower in the next two years. Regarding growth, policymakers seem more optimistic than the recent figures suggest. The latest Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings show economic progress remains tepid across the bloc. A rise in Eurozone business activity in December completed a full calendar year of growth for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to provisional PMI survey data. That said, the latest expansion in output was modest and the slowest in three months. GDP revisions will be interesting to see.Finally, speculative interest will be watching whether officials maintain the hawkish view that denies the odds for additional rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Analysts at BNP Paribas noted: “The publication of the new macroeconomic projections should also confirm the upward revision of growth forecasts for 2026. Against this backdrop, we believe that the ECB is unlikely to cut its policy rate any further and that its next move could even be an increase (in Q3 2027). This environment, against a backdrop of more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, should lead to additional upward pressure on bond yields in 2026, with the 10-year Bund exceeding 3% in the second half of 2026, according to our forecasts.” How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?As previously noted, the EUR/USD pair trades with a modest bullish bias heading into the year-end. Generally speaking, a hawkish ECB monetary policy decision should back demand for the Euro (EUR), while a dovish outcome should put pressure on the local currency. The general consensus is that the ECB will maintain its hawkish stance, particularly if President Lagarde repeats the message that the ECB is in a good place, coupled with downward revisions to inflation and upward revisions to growth expectations. Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is mostly bullish, although solely depending on USD demand. The EUR has little life of its own lately, and the ECB announcement will likely have a reduced impact on the EUR.” Bednarik adds: “Within the ECB decision, the US will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which may trigger some volatile price action. Higher-than-anticipated inflation figures will likely boost speculation of additional rate cuts in the US, leading to some USD weakness, while the opposite scenario is also valid. Keeping that in mind, EUR/USD peaked at 1.1804 this December, the immediate resistance level. Once beyond it, the pair may retest the 2025 peak at 1.1918. Near-term support lies at 1.1690, followed by the 1.1620/40 price zone. A slide towards the latter should attract buyers.” Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Dec 18, 2025 13:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: European Central Bank Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:09 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.3720
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower around 1.3770 during the European trading session on Thursday.

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The Loonie pair ticks lower, while the US Dollar (USD) trades stably ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, indicating slight strength in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.05% 0.12% -0.07% -0.07% 0.19% -0.02% EUR -0.05% -0.00% 0.05% -0.12% -0.12% 0.14% -0.07% GBP -0.05% 0.00% 0.06% -0.13% -0.12% 0.14% -0.08% JPY -0.12% -0.05% -0.06% -0.19% -0.18% 0.05% -0.13% CAD 0.07% 0.12% 0.13% 0.19% 0.00% 0.24% 0.05% AUD 0.07% 0.12% 0.12% 0.18% -0.01% 0.25% 0.05% NZD -0.19% -0.14% -0.14% -0.05% -0.24% -0.25% -0.21% CHF 0.02% 0.07% 0.08% 0.13% -0.05% -0.05% 0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, flattens around 98.40.The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation rose to 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) from 3% in October. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is estimated to have risen at steadily by 3%.Higher-than-projected US CPI data for November would weigh on Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish expectations, while soft numbers might boost them.Meanwhile, the CAD outperforms on expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will not cut interest rates in the near term.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD edges down to near 1.3775 on Thursday. The pair holds below the falling 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3872, keeping bears in control. The 20-day EM has rolled over for several sessions and continues to cap rebounds.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 32.46, near oversold after a modest bounce from last week’s extremes, and momentum remains fragile.A sustained recovery would require a daily close above the 20-day EMA to ease downside pressure that could increase the odds of an upside move towards the round-level figure of 1.3900. Until then, the downbeat setup persists and could strengthen if the spot breaks below the August 7 low of 1.3720.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

09:47 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $66.50 near record highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades near $66.50 per troy ounce during European hours on Thursday, hovering around an all-time high of $66.89, recorded on Wednesday.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 102, above expectations (98) in December
France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 102, above expectations (98) in December

09:09 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5750 ahead of US CPI data
NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5760 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair weakens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) comes under pressure, even after data revealed stronger-than-expected economic growth.

09:01 Switzerland Exports (MoM): 23478M (November) vs previous 25351M
Switzerland Exports (MoM): 23478M (November) vs previous 25351M

09:01 Switzerland Imports (MoM): 19637M (November) vs previous 21032M
Switzerland Imports (MoM): 19637M (November) vs previous 21032M

09:00 Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3841M in November from previous 4319M
Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3841M in November from previous 4319M

09:00 BoE expected to cut interest rate to 3.75% amid higher unemployment, softer inflation
The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of England is expected to cut its bank rate to 3.75% from the current 4%.The latest data shows weak GDP growth, with unemployment rising and inflation cooling. GBP/USD retreated sharply after UK inflation fell by more than expected in November.The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT.The market prices a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would leave the BoE’s Bank Rate at 3.75%. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will not meet the press this time, but the bank will publish the meeting minutes, which contain details of the committee’s discussions.Previous monetary policy meetings have shown a widely divided committee, and Thursday’s is likely to be another knife-edge decision. This time, however, the moderating inflation and the weaker economic outlook are likely to prompt Governor Bailey to tip the scales towards a rate cut.UK labour market deteriorates, price pressures easeThe Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4% at its November 6 meeting amid an evenly split monetary policy committee, with four members voting for a quarter-point rate cut, and Bailey’s voice deciding.

Governor Bailey affirmed that the risk that above-target inflation becomes more persistent has prevailed, despite policymakers’ concerns that an over-restrictive policy might weigh on consumption and damage economic activity.

Recent data, however, might have convinced the BoE Governor that it is time to lower borrowing costs further. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released on Wednesday revealed that inflationary pressures eased beyond expectations amid a significant slowdown in food prices. The yearly CPI grew by 3.2% in November, easing from 3.6% in October and 3.8% in September.UK Consumer Prices Index
Beyond that, labour data released on Tuesday confirmed that unemployment keeps growing, while wage growth is moderating. Average Earnings Including Bonus grew at a 4.7% pace in the three months to October, above expectations but below the previous months’ rates, while the unemployment rate increased to 5.1%, the highest level in nearly five years.The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released last week revealed that the economy contracted for the second consecutive month in November, weighed down by weak services and construction output. Figures released in November showed that the UK economy slowed to a 0.2% growth in the third quarter from 0.3% in the second.On the positive side, preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures showed that business activity improved beyond expectations in December in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. These figures have eased concerns about a sharp economic downturn, but are unlikely to change BoE policymakers’ votes.How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?Against this background, the market anticipates that the BoE committee will overcome its divergences and cut interest rates to 3.75% on Thursday to support a weakening economic growth. The market’s focus will thus be on the vote split among MPC members. A lower number of voters calling for a steady monetary policy would be taken as a dovish turn, and might boost hopes of further rate cuts in the near term. This is likely to send the Pound lower.GBP/USD Daily Chart
An evenly split committee, with Bailey keeping the tie-breaking vote again, suggests that the chances of further rate cuts in the near term are likely to remain low, which might provide some support for the Sterling.The current technical picture shows a bullish GBP/USD heading into the BoE’s decision, favoured by a broad-based US Dollar weakness, as investors expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease interest rates further than the BoE in 2026.“GBP/USD retreated sharply on Wednesday as the market braces for a BoE cut on Thursday,” says Guillermo Alcalá, FX Analyst at FXStreet. The pair is under increasing bearish pressure, targeting the December 9 low near 1.3280 and the December 2 low at 1.3180.On the upside, Alcalá sees potential resistance at the broken trendline near the mentioned 1.3400 area ahead of the December 16 high at 1.3455. “The pair would need to confirm above those levels to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the late September-early October highs, near the 1.3535 level”, says Alcalá. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Dec 18, 2025 12:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.75% Previous: 4% Source: Bank of England

08:55 WTI edges lower below $56.50 on US Dollar strength, weak China demand
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $56.30 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price declines amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and signs of weak Chinese energy demand.

07:57 Forex Today: Investors brace for BoE and ECB policy decisions, US inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 18:

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Related news ECB to leave rates unchanged as Eurozone set to enjoy strong 2026 BoE 'early Christmas present to markets' as Bailey to 'side with the doves' but expect 'vague' guidance US CPI data set to show inflation remained well above Fed target in November Ahead of these key events, trading action remains relatively subdued in the European morning. After staging a rebound and closing modestly higher on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index moves sideways below 98.50 in the European morning. Annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the CPI, is forecast to edge higher to 3.1% in November from 3% in October. In this period, the core CPI is expected to rise 3%, matching October's print. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and regional manufacturing activity reports from the US will also be watched closely by market participants. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed to start the European session. US Dollar Price This Month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.26% -0.98% -0.20% -1.43% -0.84% -0.55% -1.03% EUR 1.26% 0.29% 1.08% -0.16% 0.43% 0.74% 0.22% GBP 0.98% -0.29% 1.04% -0.45% 0.15% 0.44% -0.07% JPY 0.20% -1.08% -1.04% -1.23% -0.66% -0.36% -0.87% CAD 1.43% 0.16% 0.45% 1.23% 0.55% 0.89% 0.37% AUD 0.84% -0.43% -0.15% 0.66% -0.55% 0.29% -0.20% NZD 0.55% -0.74% -0.44% 0.36% -0.89% -0.29% -0.51% CHF 1.03% -0.22% 0.07% 0.87% -0.37% 0.20% 0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).EUR/USD declined toward 1.1700 on Wednesday but managed to erase a large portion of its daily losses in the American session. The pair was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at 1.1745. The ECB is widely anticipated to maintain policy settings after the last meeting of the year. Alongside the policy statement, the ECB will also publish the revised macroeconomic projections. Starting at 13:45 GMT, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the policy outlook and respond to questions from the press.GBP/USD came under bearish pressure following the soft inflation data from the UK and came in within a touching distance of 1.3300 on Wednesday. Although the pair recovered later in the day, it still lost more than 0.3%. The BoE is expected to cut the policy rate by 25-basis-points, and there won't be a press conference this time around. At the time of press, GBP/USD was trading marginally lower on the day at 1.3365.The data from Australia showed that Consumer Inflation Expectations edged higher to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November. After losing about 0.4% on Wednesday, AUD/USD stays on the back foot and trades near 0.6600 early Thursday.Following a two-day slide, USD/JPY reversed its direction and gained more than 0.6% on Wednesday. The pair continues to stretch higher toward 156.00 in the European session on Thursday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its interest rate decision in the Asian session on Friday.New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.3% in the third quarter, Statistics New Zealand reported on Thursday. This print followed the 1.1% contraction recorded in the second quarter and came in line with the market expectation. Nevertheless, NZD/USD failed to benefit from the upbeat GDP print and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day near 0.5760.Following the choppy action seen earlier in the week, Gold gathered bullish momentum and rose about 0.8% on Wednesday. XAU/USD consolidates its recent gains in the European morning on Thursday and fluctuates in a narrow channel below $4,350. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

07:47 GBP/JPY holds steady above 208.00 as BoE and BoJ rate decisions loom
The GBP/JPY cross struggles to build on a goodish rebound from the 206.75 area, or a one-week low, touched on Tuesday, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:44 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8750, all eyes on ECB and BoE rate decicions
The EUR/GBP cross gathers strength to near 0.8785 during the early European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) on softer-than-expected UK inflation data and firming Bank of England (BoE) rate cut bets.

07:31 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 4% in November
Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 4% in November

07:15 USD/CHF consolidates around 0.7950 as investors await US inflation data
The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7950 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair wobbles as investors await the United States (US) inflation data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

07:02 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Could test 1.1750 amid strengthening bullish bias
EUR/USD remains flat after two days of small losses, trading around 1.1740 during the Asian hours on Thursday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a strengthening of a bullish bias, as the pair continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern.

06:45 USD/INR opens flat on hopes of RBI’s follow-through intervention
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a flat note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair wobbling around 90.80. Investors anticipated a flat opening amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could intervene again to support the Indian Rupee.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:33 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 103.00, but stays supported above 100-day EMA
The AUD/JPY cross declines to around 102.70 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid firming expectations for an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week.

AUD/JPY drifts lower to near 102.70 in Thursday’s early European session. The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA, with steady RSI momentum. The upside barrier to watch is 104.43, while the lower band at 100.78 acts as a contention level. The AUD/JPY cross declines to around 102.70 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid firming expectations for an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week.The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% at a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday. This move would be the first rate hike since January and bring the benchmark rate to a three-decade high. Additionally, recent reports stated that the Japanese central bank would likely maintain a pledge to keep raising interest rates but emphasized that the pace will depend on how the economy reacts to each hike.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 102.70. The pair holds well above the 100-day EMA at 99.44, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The average slopes higher, reinforcing a buy-the-dip bias. RSI at 54.91 is neutral to mildly positive, reflecting moderated but steady momentum. Price sits just above the middle Bollinger band at 102.61, and the envelopes tilt higher, pointing to trend continuity. Holding daily closes above the middle band would preserve upside pressure toward the upper Bollinger barrier at 104.43. A break beneath that pivot could expose the lower band at 100.78, with the 100-day EMA at 99.44 providing deeper support. Band expansion remains gradual, so a decisive breakout would require a pickup in volatility.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

06:05 EUR/JPY hovers near 183.00 amid concerns over Japan’s deteriorating fiscal outlook
EUR/JPY holds ground after registering 0.51% gains in the previous session, trading around 182.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross holds steady as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure amid worries about Japan’s weakening fiscal outlook.

06:00 US CPI data set to show inflation remained well above Fed target in November
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY in November, slightly higher compared with September.The inflation report will not include monthly CPI figures.November inflation data could drive the US Dollar’s valuation by altering January Fed rate cut expectations.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.The inflation report will not include CPI figures for October and will not offer monthly CPI prints for November due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown. Hence, investors will scrutinize the annual CPI and core CPI prints to assess how inflation dynamics could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.What to expect in the next CPI data report?As measured by the change in the CPI, inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November, mildly above September’s reading. The core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is also forecast to rise 3% in this period. TD Securities analysts expect annual inflation to rise at a stronger pace than anticipated but see the core inflation holding steady. “We look for the US CPI to rise 3.2% y/y in November – its fastest pace since 2024. The increase will be driven by rising energy prices, as we look for the core CPI to remain steady at 3.0%,” they explain. Related news DXY: US jobs data confirms downside risks – ING Fed’s Bostic warns inflation fight isn’t over, urges caution on rates Fed’s Miran: I expect a faster fall in PCE shelter inflation How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect the US Dollar?Heading into the US inflation showdown on Thursday, investors see a nearly 20% probability of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in January, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The BLS’ delayed official employment report showed on Tuesday that Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000 in October and rose by 64,000 in November. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. These figures failed to alter the market pricing of the January Fed decision as the sharp decline seen in payrolls in October was not surprising, given the loss of government jobs during the shutdown.In a blog post published late Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued that the mixed jobs report did not change the policy outlook and added that there are “multiple surveys” that suggest there are higher input costs and that firms are determined to preserve their margins by increasing prices. A noticeable increase, with a print of 3.3% or higher, in the headline annual CPI inflation, could reaffirm a Fed policy hold in January and boost the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the flip side, a soft annual inflation print of 2.8% or lower could cause market participants to lean toward a January Fed rate cut. In this scenario, the USD could come under heavy selling pressure with the immediate reaction.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) and explains:“The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact for the USD Index, but there are signs pointing to a loss in negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart recovers above 40 and the USD Index holds above the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the September-November uptrend.”“The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a pivot level at 98.60. In case the USD Index rises above this level and confirms it as support, technical sellers could be discouraged. In this scenario, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement could act as the next resistance level at 98.85 ahead of the 99.25-99.40 region, where the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement are located.”“On the downside, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level forms a key support level at 98.00 before 97.40 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 97.00 (round level).” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

05:48 US Dollar Index (DXY) flat lines below mid-98.00s as traders await US inflation data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to build on the previous day's modest recovery gains and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

05:29 Japanese Yen consolidates ahead of BoJ rate decision, downside seems limited
The Japanese Yen (JPY) stalls the previous day's decline against a broadly recovering US Dollar (USD) and oscillates in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Thursday.

04:53 US President Trump: Next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates 'by a lot'
Speaking in a national address early Thursday, US President Donald ‌Trump said the next chairman of the ⁠‌Federal Reserve (Fed) will be ‍someone who believes in lower interest rates "by ‌a lot."

04:39 WTI tumbles to near $56 amid Ukraine peace talks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $56.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower amid optimism over a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

04:38 USD/CAD holds near 1.3800 amid market caution ahead of US CPI data
USD/CAD holds position after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

03:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves away from all-time peak, slides below $66.00 mark
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and currently trades around the $65.75-$65.70 region, down over 1% for the day.

03:34 Australian Dollar deepens losses despite rising Consumer Inflation Expectations
The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday for the sixth successive day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar extends losses despite growing odds of an RBA rate hike as early as February.Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.7% in December from November’s three-month low of 4.5%.The US Dollar gains amid fading likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday for the sixth successive day. The AUD/USD pair may gain ground as the Aussie Dollar could receive support from investors’ caution following the release of Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations, which rose to 4.7% in December from November’s three-month low of 4.5%, supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.The AUD could find support as markets grow increasingly wary of an RBA rate hike as early as February. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank now expect the RBA to start tightening sooner than previously projected, pointing to stubborn inflation in a capacity-constrained economy. Their forecasts followed the central bank’s hawkish hold on rates at its final 2025 meeting last week. Swaps price in a 28% chance of a February hike, nearly 41% in March, with August almost fully priced.US Dollar receives support from fading Fed rate cut betsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 98.40 at the time of writing. The USD finds support amid diminishing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.The US November jobs report showed payroll growth of 64K, slightly above forecasts, but October figures were revised sharply lower, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, underscoring a gradually cooling labor market. Retail sales were flat on the month, reinforcing signs that consumer demand is losing momentum.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a blog post on Tuesday that the jobs report was a mixed picture and that it did not change the outlook, and that he would prefer to leave rates unchanged at the last Fed meeting. Bostic said that “multiple surveys” are suggesting that there are higher input costs and that firms are determined to preserve their margins by increasing prices. He added that “Price pressures are not just coming from tariffs, the Fed should not be hasty to declare victory,” and that he sees GDP for 2026 at around 2.5%.Fed officials are split over whether more easing of monetary policy is needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Meanwhile, traders anticipate two rate cuts next year.The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 74.4% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in November vs. 2.9% expected and 2.9% in October. Chinese Industrial Production increased 4.8% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.0% forecast and 4.9% seen previously.China’s Fixed Asset Investment came in at -2.6% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in November, missing the expected -2.3% figure. The October reading was -1.7%.Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.2 in December from 51.6 previously, according to data released by S&P Global on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Services PMI slipped to 51.0 from 52.8, and the Composite PMI fell to 51.1 from 52.6.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that the Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in November. The figure came in below the market consensus of 4.4%. Furthermore, the Australian Employment Change arrived at -21.3K in November from 41.1K in October (revised from 42.2K), compared with the consensus forecast of 20K.Australian Dollar moves below confluence support zone near 0.6600The AUD/USD pair is trading below 0.6600 on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair is positioned below the ascending channel trend, reflecting a weakening of a bullish bias. Additionally, the pair is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a weaker short-term price momentum.The AUD/USD pair could fall toward the psychological level of 0.6500, followed by the six-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may test the nine-day EMA at 0.6619. A rebound toward the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and support the pair to test the three-month high of 0.6685, followed by 0.6707, the highest since October 2024. Further advances would support the pair to test the upper ascending channel boundary around 0.6760.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% 0.03% -0.09% -0.01% 0.07% 0.19% -0.07% EUR 0.02% 0.05% -0.07% 0.00% 0.10% 0.22% -0.04% GBP -0.03% -0.05% -0.12% -0.05% 0.05% 0.16% -0.10% JPY 0.09% 0.07% 0.12% 0.09% 0.17% 0.27% 0.03% CAD 0.01% -0.01% 0.05% -0.09% 0.10% 0.19% -0.05% AUD -0.07% -0.10% -0.05% -0.17% -0.10% 0.12% -0.14% NZD -0.19% -0.22% -0.16% -0.27% -0.19% -0.12% -0.26% CHF 0.07% 0.04% 0.10% -0.03% 0.05% 0.14% 0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:32 Gold declines on profit-taking, USD strength ahead of US CPI release
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower below $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from seven-week highs amid some profit-taking and a rebound in the US Dollar (USD).

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0583 vs. 7.0573 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.0583 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0573.

02:53 GBP/USD consolidates above mid-1.3300s as traders await BoE and US CPI report
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3310 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

02:14 NZD/USD edges lower below 0.5800 despite robust New Zealand Q3 GDP growth
The NZD/USD pair remains weak near 0.5770 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Greenback despite a stronger-than-expected New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.

02:02 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 4.7% in December from previous 4.5%
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 4.7% in December from previous 4.5%

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥528.3B in December 12 from previous ¥96.8B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥528.3B in December 12 from previous ¥96.8B

01:21 USD/JPY climbs above 155.50 as traders await US CPI release
The USD/JPY pair rises to around 155.60 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on the cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

00:58 New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product grows 1.1% QoQ in Q3 vs. 0.9% expected
New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.1% QoQ in the third quarter (Q3), compared with a 1.0% contraction (revised from -0.9%) in the second quarter, Statistics New Zealand showed on Thursday. This reading came in stronger than the expectation of 0.9%.

00:46 EUR/USD treads water with Dollar firmer and EZ inflation easing
EUR/USD hovers around its Wednesday’s opening price at around 1.1750 virtually unchanged amid a scarce economic docket in the US that witnessed a Dollar recovery. Meanwhile, inflation figures from the Eurozone (EZ) and business confidence deterioration in Germany, kept the single currency pressured.

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Meanwhile, inflation figures from the Eurozone (EZ) and business confidence deterioration in Germany, kept the single currency pressured.Single currency trades flat as softer Eurozone inflation and weak German sentiment offset dovish Fed rhetoricIn the US, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic crossed the wires, saying that the he expects GDP growth is solid and that he expects the trend to continue in 2026. Earlier, Fed Governor Christopher Waller struck neutral to dovish comments, saying that he supports further easing the next year.Ahead, the US docket will feature inflation figures and the US, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13.Across the pond, inflation in EZ dipped a relief for the European Central Bank (ECB) which hinted that the easing cycle was done. German’s IFO Business Confidence poll reported that sentiment deteriorated for the second straight month.Traders’ eyes shift to ECB’s December monetary policy meeting, which is expected to be an event that would not move the needle, as President Christine Lagarde and Co., are expected to hold rates unchanged, for this meeting and for the whole next year.In the meantime, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could be a headwind for the Euro. The Ukrainian President Zelenskiy exerts pressure on Europe, saying that they should use Russia’s frozen assets to end Putin’s appetite for war.Politico revealed that the US and Russia would hold talks over Ukraine war in Miami this weekend. Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.02% -0.14% 0.12% 0.65% 0.43% -0.09% EUR 0.03% 0.07% -0.13% 0.12% 0.70% 0.45% -0.06% GBP -0.02% -0.07% -0.06% 0.10% 0.65% 0.40% -0.10% JPY 0.14% 0.13% 0.06% 0.25% 0.81% 0.56% 0.29% CAD -0.12% -0.12% -0.10% -0.25% 0.55% 0.31% -0.04% AUD -0.65% -0.70% -0.65% -0.81% -0.55% -0.24% -0.75% NZD -0.43% -0.45% -0.40% -0.56% -0.31% 0.24% -0.51% CHF 0.09% 0.06% 0.10% -0.29% 0.04% 0.75% 0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Euro steadies ahead of ECB’s meetingRaphael Bostic said that although a close call, “inflation is more worrying than jobs.” He said that GDP growth is solid and that a stronger economy “will take pressure off the job market.”Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that recent rate cuts have supported the labor market, noting that policy remains 50 to 100 basis points above neutral. However, he stressed that there is no urgency to deliver additional easing, adding that inflation is unlikely to reaccelerate.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 64K in November, topping forecasts of 50K and rebounding from October’s revised –105K decline. However, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4%, overshooting the Federal Reserve’s 4.5% projection.Meanwhile, US Retail Sales stalled in October, unchanged on the month after a 0.1% gain in September and below expectations for a modest increase. In contrast, control-group sales, which feed directly into GDP calculations, rebounded sharply, rising 0.8% after a prior 0.1% contraction.Technical outlook: EUR/USD remains bullish above 1.1700EUR/USD consolidates in the mid-range of the 1.1700-1.1800 area as traders wait for the ECB’s decision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish an indication that buyers are in control. But their lack of strength to clear 1.1800, would pave the way for further downside.If EUR/USD clears 1.1800, expect a test of the 1.1850 region and, ultimately, the yearly high at 1.1918. Otherwise, the EUR/USD could drop below 1.1700, clearing the path to challenge the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1651, ahead of the 1.1600 handle.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

16:03 CAD stuck in Narrow range – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady and rangebound, supported by bond market dynamics but capped by softer energy prices and equity volatility.

16:00 Lagarde speech: Stronger Euro could bring down inflation Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:55 Lagarde speech: Global environment is likely to remain a drag Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 330.54 to 331.07 in November United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a rose from previous 330.54 to 331.07 in November

15:31 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) up to 1.1% in October from previous -1.1% Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) up to 1.1% in October from previous -1.1%

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.897M below forecasts (1.94M) in December 5 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.897M below forecasts (1.94M) in December 5

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.122 below forecasts (325.13) in November United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.122 below forecasts (325.13) in November

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey below forecasts (3) in December: Actual (-10.2) United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey below forecasts (3) in December: Actual (-10.2)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in November United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.7%, below expectations (3.1%) in November

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (3%) in November: Actual (2.6%) United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (3%) in November: Actual (2.6%)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.12 below forecasts (325.13) in November United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 324.12 below forecasts (325.13) in November

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K below forecasts (225K) in December 12 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K below forecasts (225K) in December 12

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 217.5K (December 12) vs 216.75K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 217.5K (December 12) vs 216.75K

15:16 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $741.5B to $741B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $741.5B to $741B

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2%) Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with expectations (2.15%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with expectations (2.15%)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets expectations (0) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets expectations (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged meets forecasts (4) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged meets forecasts (4)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.75%) United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.75%)

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (3%) in October: Actual (3.4%) Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (3%) in October: Actual (3.4%)

13:58 NZD/USD softens despite strong Q3 GDP – BBH NZD/USD slipped to 0.5766 as markets digest New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth of 1.1% q/q.

13:04 USD/CAD treads water below 1.3800, awaiting US inflation figures The US Dollar bounced from three-month lows around 1.3730 against its Canadian Counterpart earlier this week, but has failed to find acceptance above the 1.3800 line.

12:41 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects slightly to near $4,320 ahead of US inflation data Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.4% lower to near $4,320 during the European trading session on Thursday, though it remains close to its all-time high of $4,381.

12:41 Dollar holds above 98 after weak US payrolls – MUFG The Dollar Index (DXY) found support at 98.000 following November’s weak payrolls report, which confirmed ongoing labor market softness but was not weak enough to prompt an early Fed rate cut.

12:20 USD/JPY holds above 155 ahead of BoJ policy update – MUFG USD/JPY remains supported above the 155 level as markets await the Bank of Japan’s policy update.

12:04 EUR: ECB likely to hold rates, signal policy 'in good place' – MUFG The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates on hold today, emphasizing that policy is in a 'good place' as stronger activity, wage, and inflation data lift euro-zone short-term rates.

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) increased to 0.5% in October from previous -0.3% Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) increased to 0.5% in October from previous -0.3%

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 0.9% in October from previous -0.5% Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 0.9% in October from previous -0.5%

11:49 USD stays range-bound ahead of November CPI – OCBC The US Dollar (USD) traded in a subdued range overnight as markets await tonight’s November CPI report, which could sway expectations for 2026 rate cuts.

11:46 EUR/GBP stalls below 0.8800, awaiting ECB and BoE decisions The Euro bounced up from the mid-range of the 0.8700s, and maintains a moderately bid tone in the British Pound on Thursday.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.08 per troy ounce, down 0.57% from the $66.46 it cost on Wednesday.

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0% in November South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0% in November

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in November South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.9% in November

11:20 DXY holds above 98.00 amid quiet US data – ING The Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported above 98.00 as recent US data and Fed commentary have had little impact, with attention shifting to today’s ECB meetings for potential near-term direction, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (1.75%) Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (1.75%)

10:23 EUR/JPY is testing 183.15 high ahead of central banks’ decisions The Yen remains on its back foot on Thursday, despite market expectations that the BoJ will hike interest rates on Friday.

10:18 Pound Sterling is broadly under pressure ahead of BoE rate decision The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:00 GMT.

10:15 European Central Bank expected to hold interest rates, markets focus on projections The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its last two-day meeting of the year and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

10:09 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.3720 The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower around 1.3770 during the European trading session on Thursday.

09:47 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers around $66.50 near record highs Silver price (XAG/USD) trades near $66.50 per troy ounce during European hours on Thursday, hovering around an all-time high of $66.89, recorded on Wednesday.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 102, above expectations (98) in December France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 102, above expectations (98) in December

09:01 Switzerland Exports (MoM): 23478M (November) vs previous 25351M Switzerland Exports (MoM): 23478M (November) vs previous 25351M

09:01 Switzerland Imports (MoM): 19637M (November) vs previous 21032M Switzerland Imports (MoM): 19637M (November) vs previous 21032M

09:00 Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3841M in November from previous 4319M Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3841M in November from previous 4319M

09:00 BoE expected to cut interest rate to 3.75% amid higher unemployment, softer inflation The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT.

07:57 Forex Today: Investors brace for BoE and ECB policy decisions, US inflation data Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 18:

07:47 GBP/JPY holds steady above 208.00 as BoE and BoJ rate decisions loom The GBP/JPY cross struggles to build on a goodish rebound from the 206.75 area, or a one-week low, touched on Tuesday, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:31 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 4% in November Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) remains at 4% in November

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:00 US CPI data set to show inflation remained well above Fed target in November The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.

05:29 Japanese Yen consolidates ahead of BoJ rate decision, downside seems limited The Japanese Yen (JPY) stalls the previous day's decline against a broadly recovering US Dollar (USD) and oscillates in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Thursday.

04:53 US President Trump: Next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates 'by a lot' Speaking in a national address early Thursday, US ​President Donald ‌Trump said the next chairman of the ⁠‌Federal Reserve (Fed) will be ‍someone who believes in lower ​interest rates "by ‌a lot."

04:39 WTI tumbles to near $56 amid Ukraine peace talks West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $56.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower amid optimism over a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

04:38 USD/CAD holds near 1.3800 amid market caution ahead of US CPI data USD/CAD holds position after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

03:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves away from all-time peak, slides below $66.00 mark Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and currently trades around the $65.75-$65.70 region, down over 1% for the day.

03:34 Australian Dollar deepens losses despite rising Consumer Inflation Expectations The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday for the sixth successive day.

03:32 Gold declines on profit-taking, USD strength ahead of US CPI release Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower below $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from seven-week highs amid some profit-taking and a rebound in the US Dollar (USD).

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0583 vs. 7.0573 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.0583 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0573.

02:53 GBP/USD consolidates above mid-1.3300s as traders await BoE and US CPI report The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3310 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

02:02 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 4.7% in December from previous 4.5% Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations up to 4.7% in December from previous 4.5%

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥528.3B in December 12 from previous ¥96.8B Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥528.3B in December 12 from previous ¥96.8B

01:21 USD/JPY climbs above 155.50 as traders await US CPI release The USD/JPY pair rises to around 155.60 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on the cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

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