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Thursday, February 26, 2026

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that strong Nvidia earnings and buoyant equities have supported high‑beta currencies and pressured the Dollar, with only the Japanese Yen performing worse in G10. Oil price moderation and stable geopolitical risk pricing also limit safe‑haven demand.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that strong Nvidia earnings and buoyant equities have supported high‑beta currencies and pressured the Dollar, with only the Japanese Yen performing worse in G10. Oil price moderation and stable geopolitical risk pricing also limit safe‑haven demand. Pesole expects some Dollar stabilisation today, but still sees downside risks as markets stay tilted away from defensive FX.Risk-on tone pressures safe havens"Improved sentiment has weighed on the dollar over the past 24 hours, with only the yen taking a worse beating in G10 yesterday (more in the JPY section below). Oil price moderation is also playing a role, with markets seeing no reason to price in geopolitical escalation.""Polymarket’s probability of a US strike on Iran by the end of March – the most accurate driver of oil prices of late – has been stable at around 60% for a few days now. At this stage, any escalation there looks like the most plausible catalyst for a broader dollar rally, given the reassurance from Nvidia’s results and the lack of major data releases.""Overall, we could see some stabilisation in the dollar today, though some downside risks remain as the positive spillover from Nvidia’s earnings may keep markets tilted away from defensive currencies a little longer."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that risk sentiment improved across equities and credit, but rising US Treasury yields and reduced odds of early Fed cuts weigh on Gold. The 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.05% as markets priced out H1 easing.

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that risk sentiment improved across equities and credit, but rising US Treasury yields and reduced odds of early Fed cuts weigh on Gold. The 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.05% as markets priced out H1 easing. The bank also flags a soft 5‑year auction as a sign of waning demand for duration after the recent rally.Bullion faces headwind from yields"And with investors pricing out rate cuts, that meant US Treasuries struggled across the curve.""So the 2yr yield (+0.9bps) was up to 3.47%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.3bps) rose to 4.05%.""The moves in the belly and at the long-end also weren’t helped by a soft 5yr auction that saw $70bn of bonds issued +0.7bps above the pre-sale yield, with primary dealer take up rising to its highest since last March.""So some signs of a softening in Treasury demand after the recent rally, with a 7yr auction today the next test.""Having said that, yields have edged back down just shy of a basis point this morning across the curve."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the S&P 500 closed within half a percent of its record high, supported by a rebound in software and broader tech stocks as AI fears eased. Nvidia, the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 all advanced, while US IG and HY spreads tightened from year‑to‑date wides.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the S&P 500 closed within half a percent of its record high, supported by a rebound in software and broader tech stocks as AI fears eased. Nvidia, the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 all advanced, while US IG and HY spreads tightened from year‑to‑date wides. However, equal‑weighted S&P performance was flat, and homebuilders lagged sharply.AI anxiety eases, breadth narrows"There were no streaming eyes for the markets yesterday though as we saw another decent session, with the S&P 500 (+0.81%) closing within half a percent of its record high last month, whilst the STOXX 600 (+0.69%) hit a new all-time high.""That was primarily driven by easing fears around AI, which meant that software and other tech stocks continued their rebound from Monday’s sell-off.""Indeed, software stocks in the S&P were up +3.05% on the day, and the VIX index (-1.62pts) fell to a two-week low of 17.93pts.""Ahead of those results, it had been a decent session on both sides of the Atlantic, with Nvidia (+1.41%) itself up to a 3-month high.""However, the breadth of equity gains was narrower than on Tuesday, with the equal-weighted S&P essentially unchanged (+0.03%)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak to the ECON Committee, but stresses that current data leave markets pricing flat ECB rates for 2026. Upcoming CPI is unlikely to shift expectations.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak to the ECON Committee, but stresses that current data leave markets pricing flat ECB rates for 2026. Upcoming CPI is unlikely to shift expectations. The short‑term EUR:USD rate differential remains unsupportive for EUR/USD, yet ING still views 1.1750 as solid support absent a major Iran escalation.Lagarde and data unlikely to shift rates"ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak before the ECON Committee of the EU Parliament today. She recently stressed the idea of “agile” decision-making on monetary policy, but there simply isn't enough evidence for markets to price in anything other than flat rates for the rest of 2026 now.""CPI data over the coming days may also fail to move the needle significantly for rate expectations. For now, the EUR:USD short-term rate differential remains unsupportive for EUR/USD, but we haven’t seen enough restoration of confidence in the dollar to call for a major leg lower from here. We still see 1.1750 as a good support level, barring a major escalation in Iran."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Jim Reid, point out that Euro Area sovereign spreads tightened, with Italian BTP and French OAT yields hitting multi‑month lows, while 10‑year Bund yields were steady.

Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Jim Reid, point out that Euro Area sovereign spreads tightened, with Italian BTP and French OAT yields hitting multi‑month lows, while 10‑year Bund yields were steady. However, they warn UK political developments could spill over into European sentiment, as a key by‑election may pressure Prime Minister Starmer and revive concerns over fiscal loosening and gilt market volatility.Spreads tighten but risks linger"Earlier in Europe, sovereign bonds had put in a stronger performance, with a fresh tightening in sovereign bond spreads too.""So yields on 10yr Italian BTPs (-0.6bps) hit their lowest since December 2024, and those on French OATs (-1.2bps) fell to their lowest since July.""By contrast, 10yr bund yields (+0.1bps) were steady, but that also meant France’s 10yr spread over Germany fell to just 55bps, the tightest since Macron called the snap legislative election back in June 2024.""Looking forward, UK politics will be back in the spotlight today, as a by-election is taking place in the Greater Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton.""That’s a significant one, because the governing Labour Party won it convincingly at the general election in 2024 but opinion polls suggest they could lose it today, which would put Prime Minister Starmer’s position under growing pressure."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains, but is still 0.2% up to near 156.00 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.

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The USD/JPY pair has come under pressure after rising for two trading days, following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signaling that the option of an interest rate hike is still on the table. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.16% -0.27% -0.05% 0.07% 0.11% -0.00% EUR -0.00% 0.16% -0.24% -0.06% 0.06% 0.11% 0.00% GBP -0.16% -0.16% -0.40% -0.21% -0.10% -0.05% -0.16% JPY 0.27% 0.24% 0.40% 0.20% 0.32% 0.35% 0.26% CAD 0.05% 0.06% 0.21% -0.20% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% AUD -0.07% -0.06% 0.10% -0.32% -0.13% 0.05% -0.07% NZD -0.11% -0.11% 0.05% -0.35% -0.17% -0.05% -0.12% CHF 0.00% -0.00% 0.16% -0.26% -0.04% 0.07% 0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). BoJ’s Ueda said in an interview with Yomiuri newspaper on Tuesday, released earlier in the day, that the central bank will scrutinize available data in the March and April policy meetings and then will decide on hiking interest rates during the year. Ueda reiterated, “Our basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens.”In the last two trading days, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remained under pressure as a report from Mainichi daily showed this week that Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi voiced concerns over BoJ’s intentions to hike interest rates further in her meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda, which took place on February 16.Above that, the government also nominated Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to fill the central bank’s nine-member board, who are seen as strong advocates of economic stimulus, a scenario that raises concerns over hawkish BoJ prospects.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally higher ahead of nuclear talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Geneva later in the day. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 97.70. In the meeting, the US wants Tehran to give up its plans to build nuclear facilities.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
 

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that risk appetite improved, but rate expectations turned less dovish, which is broadly supportive for the Dollar Index.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that risk appetite improved, but rate expectations turned less dovish, which is broadly supportive for the Dollar Index. They highlight that the odds of a Federal Reserve cut by June fell below 50% as core PCE returned to 3.0%, pushing US Treasury yields higher. The report also flags a soft 5-year auction as another sign of shifting US rates dynamics.June cut odds fall below 50%"Still, the growing optimism on the near-term outlook (and diminishing fears of mass unemployment) led to a clear risk-on move for several asset classes.""A notable feature yesterday was that investors kept dialling back the likelihood of an H1 rate cut.""The odds of a cut by the June meeting (the first with a new Chair) fell beneath 50% for the first time this year to end the day at 48%, suggesting more doubt about an immediate rate cut by Kevin Warsh, particularly now core PCE is back to 3.0%.""And with investors pricing out rate cuts, that meant US Treasuries struggled across the curve.""So the 2yr yield (+0.9bps) was up to 3.47%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.3bps) rose to 4.05%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady after two days of losses, trading around $65.40 per barrel during the European hours on Thursday. Crude Oil prices hold steady amid ongoing United States (US)-Iran tensions that threaten potential supply disruptions.

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Crude Oil prices hold steady amid ongoing United States (US)-Iran tensions that threaten potential supply disruptions.Markets are closely monitoring the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday. US President Donald Trump recently warned of possible military action if negotiations fail, while Iran stated that US military bases across the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets, raising concerns of a broader regional conflict.According to Reuters, analysts at ING Group noted that the outcome of the talks will be pivotal for Oil prices. A constructive agreement could lead to a gradual unwinding of an estimated $10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium currently priced into the market.However, Oil gains remain capped by oversupply concerns. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US Crude Oil Stocks Change surged by 15.989 million barrels last week, the largest weekly build since February 2023, following a prior draw of 9.014 million barrels. Additional pressure stems from Saudi Arabia nearing its highest crude export levels in almost three years and Iran accelerating tanker loadings.Meanwhile, the US Department of the Treasury announced it would authorize companies to seek licenses to resell Venezuelan Oil to Cuba’s private sector, a move that could help alleviate the island’s severe fuel shortages. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

China’s Commerce Ministry said during European trading hours that it is keen to implement and safeguard the consensus reached with the United States (US) on February 4.

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Willing to work with the US to implement and safeguard the consensus reached in February 4th call.Market reactionThere seems to be no meaningful impact of these comments on the Chinese Yuan (CNH) traded in the offshore market. During European trading hours, USD/CNH claws back half of its early losses, but is still 0.2% down to near 6.8380. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 26:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 26:Financial markets adopt a cautious stance early Thursday as focus shifts to US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. The European economic calendar will feature business and consumer sentiment data for February. Later in the day, the US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will release the regional Manufacturing Activity Index for February. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.13% -0.44% 0.75% -0.03% -0.53% -0.24% -0.32% EUR 0.13% -0.29% 0.89% 0.11% -0.41% -0.11% -0.17% GBP 0.44% 0.29% 1.35% 0.40% -0.15% 0.19% 0.14% JPY -0.75% -0.89% -1.35% -0.78% -1.27% -0.94% -1.06% CAD 0.03% -0.11% -0.40% 0.78% -0.50% -0.16% -0.27% AUD 0.53% 0.41% 0.15% 1.27% 0.50% 0.31% 0.25% NZD 0.24% 0.11% -0.19% 0.94% 0.16% -0.31% -0.06% CHF 0.32% 0.17% -0.14% 1.06% 0.27% -0.25% 0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Wall Street's main indexes extended the weekly rally on Wednesday, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) struggled to stay resilient against its rivals, with the USD Index closing the day in negative territory. In the European morning on Thursday, the USD holds steady above 97.50 and US stock index futures lose about 0.2%.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier in the day that they will focus on the nuclear programme during the talks. "Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a very big problem," he added. After posting small losses for two consecutive days, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fluctuates in a tight range at around $65.50 on Thursday.Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the the basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of their economic, price forecasts materialising heightens. Meanwhile, BoJ Board Member Hajime Takata noted that it's difficult to determine the desirable pace of rate hikes and the terminal rate. Following a two-day rally, USD/JPY edges lower in the European morning but manages to hold slightly above 156.00.EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1800 in the early European session after rising about 0.3% on Wednesday.GBP/USD gained 0.5% on Wednesday and continued to edge higher during the Asian session on Thursday. After touching a fresh weekly high above 1.3570, the pair lost its traction and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day near 1.3550.Following Tuesday's sharp decline, Gold registered marginal gains on Wednesday. XAU/USD holds its ground in the European morning and rises toward $5,200. AUD/USD stabilizes above 0.7100 after rising nearly 1% on Wednesday. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said on Wednesday that the economy is in a good position and added that they have to be patient on judging the policy. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) increased to 5.544M in 4Q from previous 5.532M

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $89.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal consolidates ahead of nuclear talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Geneva later in the day.

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The white metal consolidates ahead of nuclear talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Geneva later in the day.Investors will pay close attention to the US-Iran meeting outcome to get clarity on Middle East tensions. In the meeting, Washington wants Tehran to give up its intentions to build nuclear infrastructure. Ahead of the meeting, US President Donald Trump has also warned of military action in case Tehran denies reaching a deal.Trump threatened Tehran through a post on Truth.Social on Monday that it will be a very bad day for the country and its people if they don’t reach a deal.Theoretically, the Silver price tends to perform better in heightened geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, the Silver price is broadly firm due to a weak US Dollar (USD) amid uncertainty surrounding the US trade policy outlook. Investors worry that some countries could demand trade deal revisions with the US, following the Supreme Court’s (SC) verdict against President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 97.50. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes Silver a value buy for investors.On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that Washington could raise tariffs to 15% or above on some nations from the recently announced 10% duties. Greer didn’t disclose the names of US trading partners that could be charged higher tariffs. Global 10% duties were announced by President Trump shortly after SC’s ruling against tariffs to offset the same.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades calmly at around $89.00 at the press time. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which has turned higher and underpins the recovery from the mid-month low. The sequence of higher closes since the $73–$74 area reinforces a corrective upswing within the broader pullback from the $116 region. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inside the 40.00-60.00 range, signaling a sideways trend.Initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near $84.50, with a break below exposing the next downside level at $81.00 and then the recent low around $74.00. On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the February 4 high of $92.21, followed by a stronger barrier at $102.00 and then the $108.00 area. A daily close above $94.00 would strengthen the bullish bias toward the higher resistance band, while a drop through $84.50 would neutralize the current upside structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Turkey Trade Balance rose from previous -9.3B to -8.38B in January

Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 99.4 to 100.7 in January

The USD/CAD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3670 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid lingering uncertainty over US economic policies and fresh concerns regarding potential tariff increases.

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The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid lingering uncertainty over US economic policies and fresh concerns regarding potential tariff increases. The Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Producer Price Index (PPI) reports will be the highlights later on Friday. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday stated that US President Donald Trump plans to raise this rate to 15% or higher for many countries in the coming days. This authority is limited to a 150-day window unless extended by Congress. Comments from Greer regarding potential tariff hikes have dampened confidence in the Greenback. Persistent geopolitical risks could boost crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the CAD. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran nuclear negotiations. US and Iranian officials are due to meet in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of indirect talks.All eyes will be on the US January PPI data on Friday. Economists expect the PPI to show a moderate increase of 0.3% MoM in January, compared to 0.5% recorded in December. The annual PPI is estimated to show a rise of 2.6% in January versus 3.0% prior. A "hotter-than-expected" reading could further dampen expectations for interest rate cuts and underpin the USD against the CAD in the near term.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3560 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD gains as the US Dollar loses ground amid US economic policy uncertainty.President Trump imposed new 10% tariffs despite a Supreme Court block on part of his duties.Traders expect a March BoE rate cut amid weakening UK labor market and cooling inflation pressures.GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3560 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.US President Donald Trump said in his State of the Union (SOTU) address on Tuesday that the US economy is rebounding, defended tariffs as growth-supportive and criticized the Supreme Court for striking down part of his tariff policy.However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be restrained as the Pound Sterling (GBP) may face challenges amid dovish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook. Traders expect the BoE to cut interest rates in March amid weakening United Kingdom (UK) job market conditions and cooling inflationary pressures.BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor advocated for two to three interest rate cuts in the near term, citing downside employment risks and easing price pressures.UK’s softer inflation data reinforced the likelihood of a BoE rate cut in March. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, a sharper decline than expected and the lowest reading since mid-2025.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told Parliament’s Treasury Committee that a March rate cut remains “a genuinely open question,” noting services inflation stood at 4.4% in January, above the BoE’s 4.1% projection. Chief Economist Huw Pill also urged caution, warning against being “beguiled” by headline inflation easing toward the 2% target. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The GBP/JPY pair is down 0.3% to near 211.30 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The pair corrects after a sharp upside move in the last two trading days as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes in the near term.

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The pair corrects after a sharp upside move in the last two trading days as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes in the near term. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.04% -0.30% -0.10% -0.19% -0.19% -0.13% EUR 0.11% 0.07% -0.17% 0.02% -0.08% -0.07% -0.02% GBP 0.04% -0.07% -0.21% -0.05% -0.15% -0.14% -0.09% JPY 0.30% 0.17% 0.21% 0.18% 0.10% 0.08% 0.16% CAD 0.10% -0.02% 0.05% -0.18% -0.09% -0.09% -0.04% AUD 0.19% 0.08% 0.15% -0.10% 0.09% 0.00% 0.06% NZD 0.19% 0.07% 0.14% -0.08% 0.09% -0.00% 0.05% CHF 0.13% 0.02% 0.09% -0.16% 0.04% -0.06% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). BoJ’s Ueda said in an interview with Yomiuri newspaper on Tuesday that the central bank will scrutinize available data in the March and April policy meetings and then will decide on hiking interest rates during the year. Ueda reiterated, “Our basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens.”However, market participants doubt that BoJ’s interest rate hikes will come anytime soon, as a report from the Mainichi daily on Tuesday signaled that Japan's Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi is not in favor of BoJ’s plans of raising interest rates further. The report showed a glimpse of the meeting between Takaichi and BoJ’s Ueda, which took place on February 16.Above that, the nomination of two members, Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, for the central bank's nine-member board, at times when Takaichi’s comments have reflected a contrary preference for the monetary policy outlook, has also raised concerns over the BoJ’s hawkish prospects. Such a scenario is broadly unfavorable for the Japanese Yen (JPY).Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly stable even as traders are confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in the policy meeting in March. Dovish BoE prospects are prompted by weakening United Kingdom (UK) job market conditions and cooling inflationary pressures.Earlier this week, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor advocated for two to three interest rate cuts in the near term, citing downside employment risks and easing price pressures.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
  

EUR/GBP holds positive ground near 0.8715 during the early European session on Thursday. Political risks in the United Kingdom (UK) drag the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will keep an eye on the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde speech later on Thursday. 

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Political risks in the United Kingdom (UK) drag the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will keep an eye on the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde speech later on Thursday. Manchester's Gorton and Denton constituency is set to hold a special election to fill a vacant parliamentary seat on Thursday. This event is seen as a major test for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid internal party discontent and low approval ratings."A heavy defeat for the ruling Labour Party could re-ignite speculation over the Labour leadership and again weigh on sterling," said ING's FX strategist Francesco Pesole.Eurozone inflation eased to 1.7% YoY in January, marking a 16-month low. This report has fueled expectations that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance, which could weigh on the EUR against the GBP. Traders await the preliminary reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Germany on Friday for more clues about the pace of future policy easing. Any signs of cooler inflation in Germany might exert more selling pressure on the EUR in the near term.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that it’s difficult to determine now the desirable pace of rate hike and terminal rate. Takata added that the pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price and market developments at the time. 

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Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time. 

Overseas developments are also important in judging rate-hike timing, terminal rate. 

There is no pre-set pace of rate hike, depends on future economic environment and data.

Do not think we are behind the curve now. 

Want to ensure BoJ does not fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks. 

There are pros and cons to weak yen. 

Want to decide based on economic developments at the time, when asked whether he will continue to propose rate hike in each upcoming policy meeting. 

Welcome government efforts to lift growth through growth strategy and stimulus policies, which BoJ can support with policy. 

Bank of Japan must also be mindful of achieving price goal in sustainable fashion. 

In exceptional cases where risk premium becomes too high, Bank of Japan must be ready to take action such as through market operations. Market reaction As of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.35% lower on the day at 155.90. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades firmly against its major currency peers, revisits the three-year high against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7140 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday.

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The Aussie pair demonstrates strength amid firm expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver more interest rate hikes in the near term. Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.51% 0.62% -0.04% -0.70% -0.46% -0.34% EUR 0.19% -0.31% 0.81% 0.16% -0.52% -0.26% -0.13% GBP 0.51% 0.31% 1.29% 0.47% -0.24% 0.05% 0.19% JPY -0.62% -0.81% -1.29% -0.65% -1.29% -1.01% -0.95% CAD 0.04% -0.16% -0.47% 0.65% -0.66% -0.36% -0.29% AUD 0.70% 0.52% 0.24% 1.29% 0.66% 0.26% 0.39% NZD 0.46% 0.26% -0.05% 1.01% 0.36% -0.26% 0.13% CHF 0.34% 0.13% -0.19% 0.95% 0.29% -0.39% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). In the policy meeting earlier this month, the RBA hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and kept the door open for further raises, citing upside inflation risks.Traders are pricing in roughly an 80% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates in its May policy meeting. Hawkish RBA prospects have been boosted by higher-than-expected growth in the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.The data showed on Wednesday that Trimmed Mean CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) against estimates and the prior reading of 3.3%. Meanwhile, the headline inflation remained steady at 3.8%, while it was expected to cool down to 3.7%.On Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in a fireside chat at Melbourne University, “Economy is in quite a good position, and we [RBA] have to be patient on judging policy.”In the United States (US), the uncertainty over the trade policy outlook after the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling has weighed on the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 97.50. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat in its opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair continues to oscillate in a tight range near 91.00 as investors seek clarity on the United States (US) trade policy outlook.

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The USD/INR pair continues to oscillate in a tight range near 91.00 as investors seek clarity on the United States (US) trade policy outlook.On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that Washington could raise tariffs to 15% or above on some nations from the recently announced 10% duties. Greer didn’t disclose the names of the US trading partners that could be charged higher tariffs.US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% global levy to offset the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling against his tariff policy. On Friday, the SC accused Trump of invoking emergency economic powers to back his tariff agenda and invalidated the so-called reciprocal duties.The uncertainty over the US trade policy outlook has been a major drag on the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution near 97.50.On the monetary policy front, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the March and April policy meetings in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.In Thursday’s session, investors will mainly focus on the outcome of nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva. The impact of the outcome of nuclear talks would be significant on the oil prices, which could influence the next move in the Indian Rupee.Currencies from countries, such as India, that rely heavily on imports of oil to fulfill their energy needs, remain highly sensitive to changes in oil prices.Meanwhile, improving sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian stock market could boost the Indian Rupee’s appeal going forward. So far in February, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers and have bought shares worth Rs. 4,361.57 crore, after remaining sellers for seven straight months.Signs of FIIs returning to the Indian equity market stem from improving trade relations between the US and India. Earlier this month, the US and India acknowledged a trade deal confirmation in which Washington reduced tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 18% from 50% (which included punitive tariffs for buying oil from Russia).On the domestic front, investors await the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The GDP data is expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 7.2%, slower than 8.2% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025.Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains sideways around 91.00USD/INR trades flat at around 91.00 as of writing. The pair holds marginally above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, keeping a cautious bullish bias in place while upside momentum remains contained. Price action has stabilized after the early-month surge, and the flattening of the 20-day EMA reflects a moderating trend rather than an outright reversal.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating signs of volatility contraction.Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 90.94, with a break below exposing the recent reaction low at 90.58 and then the February 3 low at 90.15 as deeper support. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the January 22 low of 91.35, followed by the January 28 low of 91.66.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

Japan Coincident Index declined to 114.3 in December from previous 114.5

Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (110.2) in December: Actual (111)

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 5.3%, above expectations (4.5%) in January

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 16.6%, above forecasts (11%) in January

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 111.15 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) following hawkish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY is bullish in the near-term as price extends well above the rising 100-day exponential moving average, confirming a mature uptrend rather than a short-covering spike. The latest candles hold near the upper Bollinger Band around 111.30 while the middle band climbs through the 109.30 area, indicating persistent upside pressure and expanding volatility. RSI at 65.92 remains in bullish territory without extreme overbought conditions, suggesting buyers still control momentum despite the recent acceleration.Initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band near 109.30, which aligns with recent consolidation and would be the first area to test trend strength on a pullback. A deeper correction would expose secondary support closer to 107.50, where the lower band region converges with prior breakout territory. On the topside, immediate resistance sits just above the market at 111.50, marking the latest swing high within the upper band region, followed by a psychological barrier at 112.50 if bulls extend the advance.  (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

USD/CHF extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 0.7720 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair trades on the back foot as the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits from safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF falls as the US Dollar weakens amid White House economic policy uncertainty.President Trump imposed new 10% tariffs despite a Supreme Court block on part of his duties.The Swiss Franc gains as expectations for near-term SNB rate cuts continue to fade.USD/CHF extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 0.7720 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair trades on the back foot as the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits from safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions.US President Donald Trump moved forward with fresh 10% tariffs on trading partners, despite the Supreme Court of the United States (US) blocking part of his proposed duties. In his State of the Union address, Trump said the US economy is rebounding, defended tariffs as supportive of growth, and criticized the Court’s decision to strike down elements of his trade policy.The Swiss Franc is supported by fading expectations of near-term rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Swiss inflation held steady at 0.1% in January, remaining at the lower end of the SNB’s 0–2% target range and broadly in line with its first-quarter outlook. Policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged for now, as inflation is projected to gradually rise.Meanwhile, the Swiss ZEW Expectations Index improved sharply to 9.8 in February from -4.7 in January, marking its second-highest level since January last year, reflecting growing expectations that the SNB will maintain its policy rate at 0% through 2026.Looking ahead, markets will focus on Switzerland’s Q4 Employment data later in the day and Q4 GDP figures due Friday. In the US, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for release during the North American session. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The EUR/USD pair gains some follow-through positive traction for the second consecutive day and climbs to the 1.1830 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day amid a softer tone surrounding the USD.The intraday move up stalls near a hurdle marked by the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.The broader technical setup seems tilted in favor of bulls and backs the case for further gains.The EUR/USD pair gains some follow-through positive traction for the second consecutive day and climbs to the 1.1830 region during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot amid concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 indicates improving positive momentum without entering overbought territory, aligning with a recovery phase from earlier sub-30 readings. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands marginally above its signal line and slightly in positive territory, with a modest positive histogram that reinforces a gradual shift toward buyer control rather than an impulsive trend.Meanwhile, the intraday move up stalls near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This should now act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, and a convincing breakout through the said resistance would open the way toward 1.1860 and then 1.1900 as the next upside objectives. On the downside, immediate support aligns with 1.1790, guarding the recent higher low structure, followed by 1.1760, where the latest recovery leg started.A sustained hold above 1.1790 would keep the bullish bias intact, while a drop through 1.1760 would neutralize the current rebound and expose deeper consolidation. Nevertheless, the near-term bias leans mildly bullish, though it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart before positioning for any further appreciating move.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)EUR/USD 4-hour chart US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.09% -0.01% -0.25% -0.05% -0.08% -0.05% -0.09% EUR 0.09% 0.07% -0.15% 0.03% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% GBP 0.01% -0.07% -0.21% -0.04% -0.07% -0.04% -0.07% JPY 0.25% 0.15% 0.21% 0.18% 0.16% 0.17% 0.16% CAD 0.05% -0.03% 0.04% -0.18% -0.02% -0.00% -0.04% AUD 0.08% -0.00% 0.07% -0.16% 0.02% 0.03% -0.00% NZD 0.05% -0.04% 0.04% -0.17% 0.00% -0.03% -0.04% CHF 0.09% -0.00% 0.07% -0.16% 0.04% 0.00% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous day's modest pullback from the 156.80-156.85 region, or a two-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

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Spot prices slide to the 155.75 area during the Asian session and, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak amid a combination of factors.The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens in reaction to hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, backing the case for further policy tightening. Apart from this, trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks benefit the JPY's safe-haven status. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.From a technical perspective, the intraday decline stalls near the 155.75 confluence support – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 152.34–156.85 advance. The said area should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders, which, if broken decisively, could prompt some technical selling around the USD/JPY pair and pave the way for deeper losses.Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support, which is defined by the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 155.15, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 154.60 if sellers regain control. Some follow-through selling would further weaken the bullish tone and expose the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level support at 154.06.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 55, pointing to positive but not overstretched momentum after failing to sustain readings near 70. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers just above the signal line and close to the zero mark, which suggests modest upside pressure but limited directional conviction for now. This warrants some caution before placing aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)USD/JPY 4-hour chart Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

NZD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.6000 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.US President Donald Trump said in his State of the Union (SOTU) address on Tuesday that the US economy is rebounding, defended tariffs as growth-supportive, and criticized the Supreme Court for striking down part of his tariff policy.Additionally, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said US goods inflation has been partly driven by tariffs and suggested that reducing the federal funds rate toward 3.25%–3.50% would align with a return to full employment. However, she stressed that placingthe US public debt on a sustainable downward path will require firm fiscal action.New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index declined to 59.2 in February from 64.1 in January, marking its lowest level since last October, though it remained firmly in positive territory. The ANZ Activity Outlook edged up slightly to 52.6 from 51.6. Meanwhile, inflation expectations climbed to 2.93% from 2.77%, the highest reading since April 2024.Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said last week that while the path back to 2% inflation has been uneven, inflation is expected to return to the target range in the first quarter of this year. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's late pullback and climbs back closer to the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.Trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks ahead of US-Iran talks continue to underpin the commodity.A modest USD weakness and bets for more Fed rate cuts further benefit the non-yielding XAU/USD.Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's late pullback and climbs back closer to the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and is supported by sustained safe-haven flows, bolstered by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and US-Iran nuclear talks.Following the Supreme Court's verdict to block many of Trump's sweeping import taxes on Friday, the president invoked Section 122 of the Tariff Act 1974 to levy 10% additional tariffs. Trump then said on Saturday that the rate would be 15%, though the tariffs were set at the lower rate from Tuesday. However, a White House official said the administration is working to raise it to 15%. There is also anxiety over how long this rate will continue, given Trump's mercurial turns over tariffs, keeping investors on edge and underpinning the Gold.Meanwhile, Iran and the US are scheduled to hold the third round of talks aimed at resolving the longstanding nuclear dispute amid the risk of imminent US strikes following a large-scale buildup of American forces in the Middle East. In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, Trump laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran and said he would not allow the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold.Adding to this, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness lends additional support to the commodity and contributes to the bid tone. Despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, traders are still pricing in the possibility of three 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the US central bank. Moreover, concerns about retaliatory measures to Trump's tariffs and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains keep the USD bulls on the defensive. This, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the Gold.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold seems poised to appreciate further while above the $5,100 resistance breakpointThe recent breakout through the $5,100-mark horizontal barrier was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. The positive outlook is reaffirmed by the fact that the bullion holds above the rising 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,948, which keeps the broader upward structure intact despite the latest pullback from last week’s highs.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, above the 50 midline, which suggests underlying buying pressure remains in place rather than a full loss of momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped further into negative territory with the line below the Signal line and a negative histogram, pointing to fading upside momentum and warning that bulls lack strong conviction at current levels.Initial support emerges near $5,150, where recent lows align with the short-term consolidation floor, followed by a deeper cushion at $5,100 if sellers extend the correction. A break below $5,100 would expose the $5,050 area, though the rising 200-period SMA below $4,950 is expected to underpin the broader bullish context while it holds.On the upside, immediate resistance sits around $5,220, just beneath the recent swing high, with a clear break opening the path toward $5,260. A sustained move above $5,260 would signal renewed bullish momentum and shift the focus to higher highs in the coming sessions.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto weekly gains around 1.3565 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) trade policy outlook.

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The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) trade policy outlook.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 97.55.The US trade policy uncertainty stemmed from the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, in which they were called “unlawful” for being backed by economic emergency powers.Meanwhile, market participants are worried that Washington’s trading partners could ask for trade deal revisions, in a way to benefit from the SC’s ruling. However, US President Trump has already warned of steeper levies if any nation intends to dishonour trade deals.On the Pound Sterling front, the outlook for the currency is broadly uncertain as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to deliver an interest rate cut in its monetary policy meeting in March.GBP/USD technical analysisGBP/USD trades firmly at around 1.3565 at the press time. The pair holds around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is at 1.3562, capping directional conviction.Price action has stabilized after the pullback from mid-month highs, with the latest candles clustering around the average and signaling consolidation rather than a clear trend extension. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 40.00-60.00 range shows neutral momentum, reinforcing a sideways tone.Initial support emerges at the February 19 low of 1.3434, the nearest swing low, and a downside move towards the January 19 low at 1.3344 is possible if the price fails to hold the same. On the upside, the pair could attempt to revisit an almost four-year high of 1.3869 if it delivers a decisive breakout above the February 11 high of 1.3712. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to around 184.35 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) on hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) on hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers. Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the preliminary reading of the German CPI will take center stage later on Friday.BoJ Board Member Hajime Takata warned of inflation overshoot risks, reinforcing expectations of further BoJ tightening and lifting the JPY. Takata added that the central bank must conduct further rate hikes in a gradual manner. He said that during the process of normalizing monetary policy, it is desirable for the BoJ to avoid causing market volatility that significantly exceeds the risk premium demanded by market participants.Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that while rate hikes will continue if economic forecasts are met, the central bank will wait for data from the March and April meetings to make further decisions.  The Euro could face some selling pressure from cooling Eurozone inflation and escalating trade tensions following fresh US tariffs. The European Parliament agreed on Monday to postpone a vote on the EU's trade agreement with the US due to the higher import levies. The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Wednesday that the US tariff rate for some countries will go up to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10% without naming any specific trading partners or other details. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
 

Furthermore, the Japanese government nominated two academics to the BoJ policy board who are seen as advocates for continued loose monetary policy, fueling concerns about the pace of future rate hikes.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends its losses for the second successive session and is trading around 97.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar Index weakens amid uncertainty over White House economic policies.President Trump signaled no easing of tariff measures in Tuesday’s State of the Union address.IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva said tariff-driven inflation supports cutting rates toward 3.25%–3.50% for full employment.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends its losses for the second successive session and is trading around 97.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.The Greenback remains under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, US President Donald Trump said the US economy is rebounding, defended tariffs as growth-supportive, and criticized the Supreme Court for striking down part of his tariff policy.Trump increased the newly introduced Section 122 tariffs to 10%, despite earlier threats to raise them to 15%, after the Supreme Court struck down a series of country-specific tariffs enacted under IEEPA 10 months ago.The US Dollar is also weighed down by remarks from International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, which carried a cautiously dovish tone. Georgieva said US goods inflation has been partly driven by tariffs and suggested that reducing the federal funds rate toward 3.25%–3.50% would align with a return to full employment. However, she stressed that placing US public debt on a sustainable downward path will require firm fiscal action.Still, the dollar’s downside may be limited as expectations for near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to diminish. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inflation progress stalled last year, emphasizing that 3% inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Moreover, Boston Fed President Susan Collins added that maintaining current interest rates for some time is likely appropriate, citing a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.60 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges higher amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.

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The WTI price edges higher amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran nuclear talks later on Thursday. US President Donald Trump last week threatened to attack Iran if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of US service members are at risk after Iran said that all US military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets. US and Iranian officials are due to meet in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of indirect talks. Any signs of escalating tensions between the two countries could boost the WTI price in the near term. "That seemed to suggest that they are more open to talking about their nuclear program," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. However, the risk of an attack on Iran is still high, he said.On the other hand, a surge in weekly crude oil inventories could raise oversupply concerns and weigh on black gold. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending February 20 climbed by 15.989 million barrels, compared to a fall of 9.014 million barrels in the previous week. The figure rose the most in three years.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $90.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Precious metals, including Silver, draw renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the White House’s economic policies.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver attracts safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over White House economic policies.President Trump signaled no easing of tariff measures in Tuesday’s State of the Union address.Silver’s gains may be limited as expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts continue to fade.Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $90.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Precious metals, including Silver, draw renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the White House’s economic policies.US President Donald Trump, in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, offered no indication of easing tariff measures. Trump raised the newly introduced Section 122 tariffs to 10%, despite earlier threats to lift them to 15%, after the Supreme Court struck down a series of country-specific tariffs enacted under IEEPA 10 months ago.Silver also finds support from escalating geopolitical tensions. Trump last week threatened military action against Iran if negotiations collapse. Meanwhile, Iran warned that all US military bases in the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets, putting tens of thousands of US service members at risk and heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. Investors are closely watching the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday.However, gains in Silver may be capped as expectations for near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to fade. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation progress stalled last year, stressing that inflation at 3% remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Boston Fed President Susan Collins added that keeping interest rates steady for some time appears appropriate, citing a resilient labor market and persistent inflation risks.Meanwhile, comments from International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva reflect a cautiously dovish tone. Georgieva noted that US goods inflation has been partly influenced by tariffs and suggested that lowering the federal funds rate toward 3.25%–3.5% would be consistent with a return to full employment. At the same time, she emphasized that placing US public debt on a sustainable downward path will require decisive fiscal action. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The USD/CAD pair drifts lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday and moves away from the monthly peak, touched earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3665 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though the downside seems limited ahead of the crucial US-Iran nuclear talks.

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Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3665 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though the downside seems limited ahead of the crucial US-Iran nuclear talks.The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive amid renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. In fact, Trump announced a new framework and signaled that his trade agenda remains firmly intact following the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs last Friday.In his State of the Union Address, Trump said on Wednesday that the White House pivoted to temporary global tariffs of 10% for 150 days under Section 122 and added that the administration is working toward raising duties to 15%. This fuels worries about retaliatory measures and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains, undermining the Greenback.Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets further dents the USD's safe-haven status and turns out to be another factor weighing on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices consolidate near the weekly low on the back of a large build in the US stock. However, the threat to oil supply from the potential US-Iran military conflict supports the commodity.Subdued Crude Oil prices do little to provide any meaningful impetus to the commodity-linked Loonie, which, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent goodish recovery from the monthly low has run out of steam already. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that central bank must conduct further rate hikes in gradual manner.

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Fear of Japan's economy reverting to deflation has been dispelled. 

I believe it is necessary to move the BoJ's focus more to upswings in prices

A sharp economic slowdown caused by credit contraction, which was common during past economic downturns in the United States, is unlikely.

Even after December rate hike, real short-term interest rates remain significantly negative in Japan. 

Must carefully monitor risk divergence of monetary policy stances between Japan and abroad could bring about high volatility in financial markets, particularly FX

BoJ must conduct further rate hikes in gradual manner. 

Believe it is necessary to shift the focus more to upswings in prices given expectations that overseas economies will experience a major shift to recovery. 

Bank of Japan is at a phase where it should deliberate on reducing the size of the balance sheet. 

BoJ should take time and be prudent in reducing its Japanese Government Bond purchases. 

My expectation is that Japan will see a true dawn this time around; in other words, this time is different. 

We will see a situation that transcends the former norm that wages and prices do not rise easily. 

During process of normalizing monetary policy, it is desirable for BoJ to avoid causing market volatility that significantly exceeds risk premium demanded by market participants.

A path toward an exit from the deflationary equilibrium has finally taken shape.

If such volatility were to occur, there is risk of the Japanese Government Bond market experiencing a deterioration in functioning or becoming dysfunctional, which would necessitate an appropriate response. Market reaction As of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.35% lower on the day at 155.90. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9228 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9321 and 6.8605 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9228 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9321 and 6.8605 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts some buyers for the second straight day on Thursday amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and trade around the 1.1815-1.1820 area during the Asian session, up 0.10% for the day.

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The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts some buyers for the second straight day on Thursday amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and trade around the 1.1815-1.1820 area during the Asian session, up 0.10% for the day.Despite the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, the USD bulls remain on the defensive amid renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The US moved ahead with the new 10% global levy on all non-exempt goods, as initially announced by Trump on Friday, following the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Moreover, Trump said during his State of the Union Address on Wednesday that the administration is working to raise duties to 15%.The announcement adds to market concerns about retaliatory measures and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment, undermines the safe-haven Greenback and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. Adding to this, the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting rates might continue to support the shared currency and back the case for further gains.In fact, ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the interest rate policy remains in a good place and reiterated her long-standing guidance that no policy change is being considered. Meanwhile, the European Parliament decided on Monday to postpone a vote on the European Union's trade deal with the US. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair as traders now look to Lagarde's speech for a fresh impetus ahead of the US Jobless Claims. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

AUD/USD remains stronger for the third successive session, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

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The pair advances toward its three-year high of 0.7147, last touched on February 12, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens following hotter-than-expected inflation data from Australia, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year.Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.8% year-over-year YoY in January, unchanged from the previous reading but above market forecasts of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, moderating from 1.0% previously. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI climbed 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY in January. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Wednesday that the economy is in a relatively strong position, though policy decisions remain challenging and require patience in assessment.The AUD/USD pair also gained as the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure after US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night provided no signals of easing tariff measures.Concerns persist over the White House’s uncertain economic policies. President Trump increased the newly introduced Section 122 tariffs to 10%, despite earlier threats of raising them to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a series of country-specific tariffs enacted under IEEPA 10 months earlier. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.5%)

The USD/JPY pair drifts lower to near 156.15 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid US tariff uncertainty.

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The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid US tariff uncertainty. Traders brace for the release of Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which will be released later on Friday.The US Supreme Court struck down US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs last week. Trump has responded by lashing out at the court and imposing a blanket 15% levy on imports. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the US President plans to raise this rate to 15% for many countries in the coming days. This authority is limited to a 150-day window unless extended by Congress. US policy fog could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against the JPY. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy uncertainty could weigh on the Japanese Yen and act as a tailwind for the pair. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that while rate hikes will continue if economic forecasts are met, the central bank will wait for data from the March and April meetings to make further decisions.  Additionally, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed reservations about further rate hikes, citing concerns over economic impact. According to Reuters, a majority of economists expect the policy rate to reach 1.0% by the end of June 2026. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Australia Private Capital Expenditure registered at 0.4% above expectations (0%) in 4Q

GBP/USD rose 0.42% on Wednesday, recovering toward 1.3600 in a session shaped by softer-than-expected UK inflation data and broad US Dollar weakness.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling recovered toward 1.3600 after UK inflation dropped to 3.0% and the US Dollar softened on tariff uncertainty.UK CPI fell sharply to 3.0% in January from 3.4%, raising BoE rate cut expectations to roughly 80% for the March 19 meeting after Governor Bailey called the decision "a genuinely open question."Trump's State of the Union address offered no tariff relief, with the administration confirming the Section 122 global levy will be raised to 15% on certain countries.GBP/USD rose 0.42% on Wednesday, recovering toward 1.3600 in a session shaped by softer-than-expected UK inflation data and broad US Dollar weakness. The pair had been consolidating in a tight range between about 1.3450 and 1.3520 for the past few days following the sharp pullback from the late-January high near 1.3870, and Wednesday's move pushed price action back onto the high side of key moving averages.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, a sharper decline than expected and the lowest reading since mid-2025. The drop bolstered expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates at its March 19 meeting, with markets now pricing roughly 80% odds of a 25 basis point reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey, testifying before parliament's Treasury Committee on Tuesday, had already called a March cut "a genuinely open question," while noting that services price inflation at 4.4% has not eased as much as the BoE had forecast. Chief Economist Huw Pill echoed the caution, warning against being "beguiled" by headline inflation falling toward the 2% target. UK labor data earlier in the week showed unemployment rising to a five-year high of 5.2%, further supporting the case for easing.The US Dollar side added a tailwind to Cable. The US Dollar Index slipped below 97.80 on Wednesday after President fTrump's State of the Union address on Tuesday night offered no indication of easing tariff policies. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with January minutes showing several officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stays above target. US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva added further geopolitical caution.Recovery from the 50-day EMA as Stochastic crosses bullish in oversold territoryThe pair bounced from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3525, which has been acting as a pivot since the January rally. The 200-day EMA around 1.3380 continues to rise and is well below current price action, keeping the broader uptrend from late 2025 valid. The Stochastic Oscillator has crossed bullish in the oversold zone, suggesting the pullback from the 1.3870 high may be running out of steam. A sustained push above 1.3600 would be the first sign of buyers re-engaging toward the year-to-date high, while a failure to hold the 50-day EMA would shift focus toward 1.3430 and eventually the 200-day EMA.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

NZD/USD rose 0.52% on Wednesday, climbing back into the 0.6000 handle after the US Dollar came under broad selling pressure.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The New Zealand Dollar is moving to reclaim 0.6000 as the Greenback weakens on post-State of the Union trade policy uncertainty.The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% last week, with Governor Breman pushing back on near-term tightening expectations and leaving markets pricing just 40% odds of a September hike.Trump's State of the Union address offered no easing of tariff rhetoric, with the administration signaling the new Section 122 global levy will be raised to 15% on certain countries.NZD/USD rose 0.52% on Wednesday, climbing back into the 0.6000 handle after the US Dollar came under broad selling pressure. The move snapped a four-day consolidation streak and pushed the pair back into the upper half of the range it has traded since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on February 18, when the Kiwi fell sharply from the 0.6050 area.The RBNZ's February hold at 2.25% continues to weigh on the New Zealand Dollar's upside potential. Governor Anna Breman's updated rate track pushed the first potential hike out to late 2026 at the earliest, well behind what traders had priced in, and overnight index swaps softened around eight basis points in response. The policy contrast with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised rates to 3.85% earlier in February, is growing and continues to cap the Kiwi's upside. Strong Q4 retail sales data provided some offset, showing the economy held momentum through late 2025.Wednesday's rally was driven largely by US Dollar weakness. The dollar index slipped below 97.80 after President Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday night offered no indication of easing tariff policies. Trump defended tariffs as a driver of economic recovery and suggested they could eventually replace income taxes, while the administration confirmed it will raise the temporary Section 122 global levy to 15%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with January minutes showing several officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stays above target. US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva added a further layer of geopolitical caution.Bounce from the lower end of the post-RBNZ range as Stochastic pivotsThe pair continues to hold above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5920, keeping the broader uptrend from the January lows close to 0.5750 in play. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned higher near the oversold zone after crossing bearish earlier in the month, suggesting near-term downside momentum may be fading. A push above 0.6050 would be the first sign of buyers re-engaging toward the year-to-date high near 0.6100, while a failure to hold above 0.6000 would shift focus back toward 0.5940 and the 50-day EMA.NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 64.1 to 59.2 in February

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time. Rubio added that talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme.

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Iran is not enriching currently but they are trying to reach the point where they ultimately can. 

Iran talks on Thursday will primarily focus on the nuclear program. 

Iran poses conventional weapons designed to attack America. 

Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

Do not think diplomacy is ever off the table. 

Would not characterize Thursday talks as anything other than the next opportunity to talk. 

Status quo in Cuba is unsustainable. 

Cuba needs to change dramatically. 

Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a very big problem.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.05% higher on the day to trade at $5,167. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.01% on the day at $65.60. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through the 2026 Two Sessions, while not resisting Chinese Yuan strength.

TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through the 2026 Two Sessions, while not resisting Chinese Yuan strength. They project a gradual decline in USDCNY to 6.7 by year-end 2026, in line with broad US Dollar weakness, and flag potential post-event tweaks to FX policy tools to temper excessive CNY gains.PBoC seen tolerating stronger Chinese Yuan"Authorities are likely to ensure volatility in USDCNY is kept to a minimum during China's most important political event of the year.""We still believe the PBoC isn't fighting against CNY appreciation and would allow a gradual decline in USDCNY to 6.7 by year-end, tracking broad USD weakness.""Judging by the pace of appreciation in the CNY, however, it seems like our year-end forecast of 6.7 in USDCNY could be reached by mid-2026.""As such, we may see the PBoC tweak structural FX parameters to slow the gains in USDCNY after the Two Sessions conclude on 11 March."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that goods US inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs.

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Bringing down the federal funds rate to 3.25% and 3.5% consistent with United States economy returning to full employment. 

Putting US public debt on downward path will require determined actions. 

We share Trump administration concern about growing United States trade and current account deficits. 

We have not opined on Supreme Court decision to strike down some of Trump's tariffs. 

We will digest implications of court decision and incorporate into full U.S. Article IV report. 

U.S. average tariff rate is now about 10 percent compared with estimates of up to 25 percent in April 2025. 

United States remains attractive to financial flows from other countries

U.S. is in a position to fund its spending but deficits need to come down in medium term. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the the basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens. 

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Underlying inflation has yet to fully hit 2%, will guide policy so underlying inflation hits 2% or we avoid it from exceeding 2% on sustained basis. 

We do not think we are behind the curve in addressing risk of too-high inflation. 

No change from January to our projected timing for hitting price target, expect inflation to re-accelerate from current slowdown. 

If the outcome of Spring wage talks are stronger than expected and prod firms to pass on costs swiftly, there is chance we could achieve price target sooner than expected.

April Tankan is important piece of information but we are conducting various surveys, so it is not as if we must wait until Tankan's release to have sufficient data. 

Bank of Japan will hold policy meetings in March and April, will scrutinize information available by then and reach decision, when asked about growing market views Bank of Japan could hike rates in April. 

Do not expect significant impact from new Trump tariffs on Japan's economy but watching developments carefully. 

Important for government and parliament to ensure market trust in Japan's medium to long term fiscal health. Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.20% on the day at 156.20. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $5,165 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies.

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The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies. All eyes will be on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for January, which is due on Friday. US President Donald Trump last week threatened to attack Iran if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of US service members are at risk after Iran said that all US military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets. Fears that an attack could spiral into a new regional war could boost a traditional safe-haven asset such as Gold.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran talks. Two countries are expected to meet for a further round of talks in Geneva on Thursday.The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Wednesday that the US tariff rate for some countries will go up to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10% without naming any specific trading partners or other details.Trump suffered a defeat at the hands of the US Supreme Court last week, which struck down his sweeping “liberation day” tariffs imposed last year. But in response, Donald Trump announced imposing a 10% global tariff and raising the level to 15%. US tariff uncertainty might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. The attention will shift to the US January PPI data on Friday, as it could offer more clues about the US interest rate path. The headline PPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in January, while the core PPI is projected to show a rise of 3.0% during the same period. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/THB has bounced from key support at 31.00 after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly delivered a second consecutive 25 bps rate cut to 1.00%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/THB has bounced from key support at 31.00 after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly delivered a second consecutive 25 bps rate cut to 1.00%. While policymakers voiced concern about Baht appreciation and exporters’ conditions, BBH notes Thailand’s positive real rates and solid external backdrop still support an underlying THB uptrend.Surprise easing but THB trend intact"USD/THB bounced off key support at 31.00. Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly delivered a back-to-back 25bps policy rate cut to 1.00% (no change was expected). The BOT Committee voted 4 to 2 to cut the policy rate by 25bps. Two members voted to maintain the policy rate at 1.25%.""Importantly, the Committee expressed “concern over signs of exchange rate misalignment from economic fundamentals,” adding that the “appreciation of Thai baht has tightened financial conditions for exporters, particularly for products facing intense price competition and low profit margins”. Nevertheless, Thailand’s relatively high positive real rates and favorable balance of payments backdrop continue to underpin the uptrend in THB."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The AUD/JPY rallies over 1.20% on Wednesday, after an inflation report in Australia prompted investors to price additional rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At the time of writing, the cross trades at 111.38.

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At the time of writing, the cross trades at 111.38.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom the technical standpoint, the AUD/JPY looks bullish after clearing previous yearly high of 110.79 and clearing the 111.00 milestone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls are gathering steam as the index cleared the 70 — usually seen as an overbought level, but due to the strength of the trend, the most extreme area sought by traders would be the 80 mark.If AUD/JPY clears the yearly high of 111.47, this clears the path to test the 112.00 mark. The Average True Range (ATR) is 111 pips. Hence, if the cross finishes the session at current levels, if the ATR fulfills, the next key resistance is 112.49, followed by the 113.00 milestone.Should the AUD/JPY retreats below 111.00 it opens the door to test the February 10 cycle high of 110.67, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 109.34. On further weakness, the next stop would be a key support trendline drawn from November 2025 lows, at around 108.00.AUD/JPY Price Chart – DailyAUD/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.

TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.Domestic demand at policy forefront"Premier Li is likely to announce a 4.5-5.0% GDP target range for 2026 and a broad budget deficit equivalent to 9% of GDP, retaining an accommodative fiscal stance.""In 2026, we expect policymakers to formulate and implement policies with a focus on boosting domestic demand.""Boosting domestic demand would encompass both consumption-led and investment-focused policies, especially given the slump in Fixed-Asset Investment (FAI) in the H2'25.""Policymakers see the need to diversify its economic engine towards consumption, albeit at a gradual pace.""We expect the targeted consumer stimulus, consumer trade-in program, to continue in 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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