Daily Market Analysis

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20:14 AUD/USD trades lower as US Dollar firms ahead of delayed US NFP data
AUD/USD remains under pressure on Monday, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) edging lower as the US Dollar (USD) stages a modest rebound ahead of a heavy US economic docket due on Tuesday. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6637, staying on the back foot for a third consecutive day.

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At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6637, staying on the back foot for a third consecutive day.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.34, rebounding after hitting an intraday low around 98.14.Earlier in the American trading session, the Greenback came under brief pressure after the US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index pointed to a sharp slowdown in activity. The index fell to -3.9 in December from 18.7 in November, missing market expectations of 10.6.Looking ahead, investors are repositioning ahead of the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports for October and November, which were postponed due to the recent government shutdown. The data will be closely watched as markets continue to reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook following last week’s 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut.Policymakers acknowledged that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months, and a weaker-than-expected labour-market reading would likely reinforce expectations for further policy easing, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against near-term rate cuts, stressing that future policy decisions will hinge on incoming data.In addition to the NFP releases, traders will also monitor the ADP Employment Change four-week average, Retail Sales, and preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.In Australia, traders are also reassessing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy path following weaker labour-market data. While the RBA left interest rates unchanged at its last meeting and signalled that future rate hikes remain more likely than cuts, softer employment figures have prompted markets to push back expectations for a rate hike into the second half of 2026.Elsewhere, weak economic data from China is adding to the downside pressure on the Aussie, given Australia’s close trade ties with its largest trading partner. Signs of a slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy emerged in November, with industrial output rising 4.8% YoY, below expectations and slightly slower than in October, while Retail Sales increased just 1.3%, marking their weakest gain since late 2022.Australia’s preliminary S&P Global PMI figures are also due on Tuesday. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

17:52 EUR/USD trades near multi-week highs amid softer US Dollar, cautious Fed outlook
The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback remains under sustained pressure following last week’s 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1760, its highest level since October 1.

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At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1760, its highest level since October 1.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.18, close to a two-month low.Adding to the US Dollar’s downside, dovish remarks from Fed Governor Stephen Miran kept the Greenback under pressure, as he defended his preference for a larger 50 basis point rate cut at the last meeting. Miran argued that underlying inflation pressures are already close to the Fed’s 2% target once lagging and imputed components are stripped out, warning that policy risks remain “unnecessarily tight.” He stressed that elevated shelter inflation reflects past supply-demand imbalances rather than current conditions and said a quicker pace of easing would be appropriate to move policy closer to neutral.On the data front, the US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for December pointed to a sharp slowdown in activity. The index fell to -3.9 from 18.7 in November, missing market expectations of 10.6.Attention now turns to a data-heavy US economic calendar in the days ahead, with upcoming releases expected to play a key role in shaping expectations around the Fed’s policy path into 2026. The spotlight this week falls on the delayed October and November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due to be released on Tuesday, followed by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.On the Euro side, the economic calendar is relatively light at the start of the week. Eurozone Industrial Production rose by 0.8% MoM in October, beating market expectations of 0.1% and accelerating from 0.2% previously.Looking ahead, focus shifts to the preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys, the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, where policymakers are widely expected to keep all three key interest rates unchanged.With the ECB expected to remain on hold while markets continue to reassess the Fed’s monetary policy outlook and expectations for further easing, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears to remain to the upside. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

17:48 Fed's Williams: It is critical for the US central bank to get inflation back to 2%
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said that he projects the jobless rate will come back down over the next few years at an event hosted by the New Jersey Bankers Association. Audience questions expected on Monday.

17:43 Canada: Home sales remained flat in November – NBC
Canadian home sales were broadly unchanged in November, with weakness across most provinces offset by gains in the West.

Canadian home sales were broadly unchanged in November, with weakness across most provinces offset by gains in the West. Activity remains below historical norms, but easing monetary policy and a stronger labour market are expected to support housing demand in the months ahead, economists from National Bank of Canada report. Rate cuts seen supporting market ahead"Home sales remained relatively flat (-0.6%) from October to November at the national level following a marginal 0.9% gain the previous month. On a regional basis, transactions were down in 7 of the 10 provinces in November, namely in Nova Scotia (-13.0%), P.E.I. (-5.6%), Newfoundland (-2.7%), New Brunswick (-2.6%), Quebec (-2.5%), Ontario (-1.5%), and Manitoba (-0.7%). On the other hand, home sales increased in B.C. (+2.6%), Alberta (+2.7%), and Saskatchewan (+3.4%)." "After picking up steam in the spring, the number of sales in the real estate market has remained essentially stable since July, despite the Bank of Canada's policy rate cuts in the fall. Furthermore, sales remain below their historical average and 7.6% below their most recent peak in November 2024, as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the market." "However, we remain optimistic about the residential market in the coming months, as cumulative decreases in the policy rate and improvements in the labour market should help support transaction levels."

17:40 GBP/USD nears 1.3400 as traders brace for BoE cut
GBP/USD advances during the North American session up 0.28% amid a scarce economic docket but following the Federal Reserve’s last week’s monetary policy decision, in which the central bank hinted a possible pause loom.

17:00 Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (12%) in October: Actual (10%)
Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (12%) in October: Actual (10%)

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index above forecasts (38) in December: Actual (39)
United States NAHB Housing Market Index above forecasts (38) in December: Actual (39)

16:56 Fed’s Miran: I expect a faster fall in PCE shelter inflation
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran stated that tariffs aren't driving higher inflation in goods and argued that the measure of underlying inflation is near 2% on Monday at Columbia University's Institute of Global Politics, in New York.

16:38 USD/CAD trims losses after softer Canadian inflation data
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trims part of its earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders digest the latest inflation data from Canada.

16:33 JPY rises sharply on Tankan Survey, USD/JPY hits 155 – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), pushing USD/JPY down to the key 155 level, as investors digested the Q4 Tankan business survey. Technical indicators are turning bearish, with the RSI dipping below 50.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), pushing USD/JPY down to the key 155 level, as investors digested the Q4 Tankan business survey. Technical indicators are turning bearish, with the RSI dipping below 50. Attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy decision later this week, where a 25bps rate hike to 0.75% is widely anticipated alongside potential hawkish guidance and revised growth and inflation forecasts, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Market eyes BoJ policy decision with 25bps hike expected"The JPY is strong, up 0.5% vs. the USD and outperforming all of the G10 currencies in mixed trade as market participants respond to the release of the quarter Tankan business sentiment survey data. The readings were in line with expectations and the market reaction suggests that participants may have been leaning toward disappointment." "The decline in USD/JPY has been notable, delivering a push to the psychologically important 155 level shifting the focus to the 50 day MA at 154.15. The confirmation of a bearish turn in technicals is important with the RSI pushing below 50 into bearish territory." "Japan will release its preliminary PMI’s for December at 7:30pm ET however the highlight for this week will be the BoJ policy decision scheduled for the end of the week, where a 25pt hike to 0.75% is widely expected. Media have also reported on the strong possibility of a constructive adjustment to the forecast for growth, inflation, and a more hawkish guidance on rates and specifically widening the range of movement for the long end of the JGB curve."

16:27 NZD weakens after RBNZ signals cautious policy – BBH
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed across G10 currencies after Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman dampened market expectations for rate hikes in 2026, BBH FX analysts report.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed across G10 currencies after Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman dampened market expectations for rate hikes in 2026, BBH FX analysts report. Governor Breman pushes back on 2026 rate hike bets"NZD underperforms across the board. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman pushed back against market expectations for rate hikes next year. Breman cautioned that the bank’s policy rate forecast 'indicates a slight probability of another rate cut in the near term…However, if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time'." "The swaps curve price-in nearly 50bps of hikes over the next twelve months. Without positive data surprises, the RBNZ will struggle to deliver the hikes priced-in, and NZD upside will be limited. Next major resistance for NZD/USD is offered at the 200-day moving average (0.5861)."

16:20 GBP edges up ahead of busy UK data week – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained slightly against the US Dollar (USD) as markets prepare for a heavy UK data calendar ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained slightly against the US Dollar (USD) as markets prepare for a heavy UK data calendar ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. With jobs, preliminary PMIs, and CPI releases scheduled this week, the widely expected 25bps rate cut to 3.75% leaves room for a neutral or hawkish surprise, while market positioning continues to price in significant easing risks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets brace for BoE rate decision on Thursday"The pound is up a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD and a relative performer against most of the G10 currencies as we enter Monday’s NA session." "The domestic calendar is heavy leading into Thursday’s BoE with jobs and preliminary PMI’s scheduled for Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, and retail sales following the central bank decision on Friday. A 25bpt cut — to 3.75%— is widely anticipated and risk lies with the statement tone (there will be no fresh forecasts)." "We see scope for neutral/hawkish surprise in the aftermath of the latest budget, and note that markets are pricing considerable easing into the short-term rates market with options still pricing a sizeable premium for protection against GBP weakness."

16:12 USD/CNH drops below 7.0500, lowest since October 2024 – BBH
USD/CNH fell below 7.0500, marking its lowest level since October 2024, amid weak November real sector data from China. Slower retail sales, subdued industrial production, and a sharper-than-expected drop in fixed asset investment highlight ongoing economic softness.

USD/CNH fell below 7.0500, marking its lowest level since October 2024, amid weak November real sector data from China. Slower retail sales, subdued industrial production, and a sharper-than-expected drop in fixed asset investment highlight ongoing economic softness. A stronger yuan could support a shift toward consumer-driven growth, keeping the USD/CNH downtrend intact, BBH FX analysts report. USD/CNH downtrend remains intact"USD/CNH dropped under 7.0500, to its lowest level since October 2024." "China’s November real sector data was weak. In the eleven months of the year, retail sales growth unexpectedly slowed to 4.0% y/y (consensus: 4.3%) vs. 4.3% in October, industrial production growth matched consensus at 6.0% y/y vs. 6.1% in October, and fixed asset investment growth slumped more than expected by -2.6% y/y (consensus: -2.3%) vs. -1.7% in October. Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment growth was 0.8% y/y vs. 1.7% in October." "In our view, a continued appreciation in China’s currency could help the country shift its growth model towards consumer spending by boosting disposable income through cheaper imports. Bottom line: USD/CNH downtrend is intact."

16:09 EUR steady in mid-1.17s ahead of ECB Thursday – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is steady, trading in a tight range in the mid 1.17s and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional gain vs. the US Dollar (USD).

The Euro (EUR) is steady, trading in a tight range in the mid 1.17s and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional gain vs. the US Dollar (USD). The EUR remains well supported overall, hovering slightly below last Thursday’s high just above current spot levels, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Spreads remain supportive"The latest euro area industrial production figures for October were in line with expectations, offering little in terms of market movement. The highlight of this week remains Thursday’s ECB policy decision which is expected to deliver a widely anticipated hold at 2.00% (depo rate). A forecast upgrade has also been broadly communicated, lifting ECB rate expectations and delivering a fundamentally driven boost in the EUR to fresh two month highs.""Euro area-US yield spreads have climbed to fresh highs and are threatening a break of their 2024 highs, opening up the potential for a push to levels last seen in mid 2023. A fair value assessment based on 2Y spreads alone would have EURUSD trading at 1.1856, well above current levels in spot.""The EUR is well supported with no material pullback from last Thursday’s push to fresh multi-month highs. Momentum is confirming and the RSI has reach bullish levels ~70 that are typically associated with overbought conditions. We see no material resistance ahead of 1.18 and the mid-September high in the lower 1.19s. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.17 and 1.18."

16:06 USD/CAD remains heavy near 1.3765 – BBH
USD/CAD is trading near recent lows around 1.3765 following the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25%.

USD/CAD is trading near recent lows around 1.3765 following the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25%. With the BOC emphasizing a cautious outlook and market expectations pricing a modest 25bps hike over the next year, the pair is expected to gradually edge lower toward 1.3500–1.3600, BBH FX analysts report. BOC holds policy rate at 2.25%, signals caution"USD/CAD is heavy near recent lows around 1.3765. At last week’s meeting, the BOC kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected." "The BOC emphasized again that it 'sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%'. The BOC leaned slightly against market expectations for rate hikes cautioning that 'uncertainty remains elevated'. Still, the swaps curve implies a 25bps rate increase to 2.50% over the next twelve months." "We expect USD/CAD to edge lower and stabilize between 1.3500-1.3600."

15:57 CAD holds steady near Friday’s close against USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains near Friday’s closing level versus the US Dollar (USD), trading just below its estimated fair value of 1.3798.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains near Friday’s closing level versus the US Dollar (USD), trading just below its estimated fair value of 1.3798. While short-term consolidation in USD losses is possible, the underlying trend favors further CAD strength, with resistance on moderate USD rebounds expected around 1.3850–1.3875, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD/CAD slightly below fair value amid mild CAD stretch"The CAD is holding close to Friday’s closing rate versus the USD. Spot continues to trade a little below our estimated fair value (1.3798) but the stretch in the CAD’s valuation is mild and there remains ample leeway for fundamentally-driven strength to extend." "We noted last week that a USD/CAD close below 1.3769 (61.8% retracement of the USD’s H2 rally) should indicate more USD losses towards 1.35/1.36 in the coming weeks. It was close but the CAD just failed to hold the necessary gain through 1.3769 into the weekend, however.""And with the USD veering into oversold territory on the short-term oscillators, some consolidation in recent USD losses may be a risk in the short run. Given the strength of the underlying trend lower on the charts, we think scope for USD gains is limited, however. We expect firm resistance on moderate USD rebounds to the 1.3850/75 zone."

15:53 USD/JPY holds near 155 amid strong Tankan survey – BBH
USD/JPY trades near 155.00 following a strong Q4 Tankan survey, with Japan’s all-industries business conditions index rising to 17, the highest since Q3 2018, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY trades near 155.00 following a strong Q4 Tankan survey, with Japan’s all-industries business conditions index rising to 17, the highest since Q3 2018, BBH FX analysts report. BOJ poised for first rate hike since January"USD/JPY is down near 155.00. Japan’s Q4 Tankan business survey was strong and points to ongoing economic activity. The all industries business conditions index improved to 17 (highest level since Q3 2018) vs. 15 in Q3 and the details were good.""The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to raise the policy rate 25bps to 0.75% (Friday). It will be the first rate hike since January.""We see room for USD/JPY to adjust lower towards the level implied by US-Japan two-year bond yield spreads around 140.00."

15:49 USD edges lower, focus on US data – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little lower on the session in broad, Dollar Index (DXY) terms but losses remain relatively contained and the index is holding a little above last week’s low. The CNY continues to strengthen, meanwhile, giving much of the Asian FX complex a lift.

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little lower on the session in broad, Dollar Index (DXY) terms but losses remain relatively contained and the index is holding a little above last week’s low. The CNY continues to strengthen, meanwhile, giving much of the Asian FX complex a lift. The Chinese authorities are signaling some discomfort with the CNY’s gains, but the country’s rising trade surplus suggests potential for additional strength (and implicitly more pressure on the USD generally), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD retains a soft undertone"FX turnover is likely to be relatively light today as the week ahead brings a number of key data reports from the US. The main focus for markets this week will be tomorrow’s NFP report. Private sector data (ADP, Revelio) indicated negative job growth in November. The street is looking for a small (50k) gain in payrolls, however. Weak data will amplify expectations that the Fed has more work to do as it tries to balance its twin mandate and will keep the USD under pressure.""Seasonal patterns point to the risk of some late year softness in the USD and broader trends continue to highlight downside risks through the turn of the year. Near-term technical pointers remain negative, with chart signals indicating a test of the mid-97 zone is the key risk for the DXY.""President Trump remarked Friday that he was considering Warsh and Hassett as the replacement for Fed Chair Powell. The president suggested that whoever next leads the Fed should consult him on monetary policy and that he thinks the policy rate should be cut to 1% or lower. The Fed’s Miran and Williams are speaking today."

15:33 EUR/JPY weakens as markets price near-certain BoJ rate hike
The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, as the Yen strengthens broadly amid near-certain expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its December 19 policy meeting.

15:31 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) declined to -0.1% in November from previous 0.6%
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) declined to -0.1% in November from previous 0.6%

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in November
Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in November

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (November) vs previous 0.2%
Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (November) vs previous 0.2%

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) unchanged at 2.9% in November
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) unchanged at 2.9% in November

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.4%) in November: Actual (2.2%)
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.4%) in November: Actual (2.2%)

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -3.9, below expectations (10.6) in December
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -3.9, below expectations (10.6) in December

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 254.1K, above forecasts (248K) in November
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 254.1K, above forecasts (248K) in November

14:16 USD slides Against major currencies – BBH
The US Dollar (USD) is trading defensively across major currencies, with potential to drift toward the lower end of its June–December range.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading defensively across major currencies, with potential to drift toward the lower end of its June–December range. Markets are closely monitoring Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers Stephen Miran and John Williams for signals on the next policy moves, BBH FX analysts report, BBH FX analysts report. Fed speakers in focus today"USD is trading on the defensive against most major currencies. USD has room to edge down to the lower-end of its June-December range as it converges towards the level implied by US-G6 rate differentials.""Fed speakers today include: staunch dove Fed Governor Stephen Miran and influential New York Fed President John Williams. Remember, it was a dovish speech by Williams on November 21 that revived December Fed funds rate cut bets."

14:14 Gold trades firmly below all-time high on Fed, Geopolitical risks
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a firm footing, extending its advance for a fifth consecutive day as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook keeps traders defensive.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,345, just shy of its all-time high near $4,381, marked on October 20.From a broader macro perspective, the metal remains supported by persistent geopolitical tensions. At the same time, continued strong central bank demand and robust inflows into Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are providing a steady tailwind for prices.Investors are also positioning for a busy US economic calendar in the days ahead, with upcoming data likely to shape expectations around the Fed's policy path into 2026. The spotlight this week falls on the delayed October and November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due to be released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.Market movers: Markets stay defensive amid China slowdown and cautious Fed signalsChina’s latest economic indicators highlighted a broadening slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, with November industrial output expanding 4.8% year-on-year, below expectations and slightly slower than October, while retail sales rose just 1.3%, marking their weakest gain since late 2022. The softer data have reinforced concerns about global growth, supporting risk-averse sentiment and underpinning safe-haven demand for Gold.Geopolitical tensions remain elevated amid stalled US-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Reuters reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop Ukraine’s bid to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for Western security guarantees, as part of efforts to end the war with Russia. The proposal would meet one of Moscow’s key war aims, although Kyiv has so far held firm against ceding territory to Russia.The Fed lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last week in a 9-3 vote, bringing the policy rate to a 3.50%-3.75% range, and signalled a “wait-and-see” approach to further easing as policymakers balance ongoing labour-market softness against still-sticky inflation.In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is “well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” while acknowledging risks on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. The relatively less hawkish tone prompted traders to price in two rate cuts next year, even as the latest dot plot points to just one.Two of the three dissenters, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, preferred to leave rates unchanged. Goolsbee said on Friday he favoured waiting for greater clarity on inflation before easing further, while Schmid argued that little had changed since the previous meeting, emphasising that inflation remains too high and the economy still shows momentum with a labor market that’s cooling but largely balanced.Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is light on Monday, with the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index due for release. Markets will also parse comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in favour of a larger 50 basis point rate cut, alongside remarks from New York Fed President John Williams later in the day.Technical analysis: Bulls eye a break above $4,350From a technical perspective, Gold’s broader structure remains constructive following a bullish continuation move above a symmetrical triangle pattern. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the $4,350 level, ahead of a potential retest of the all-time high around $4,381. On the downside, the former breakout zone near $4,250 now acts as a key initial support, followed by the rising 50-period SMA. A deeper corrective pullback could attract fresh buying interest in the $4,180-$4,170 region.Momentum indicators also support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above 70, signalling strong bullish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 40 has turned sharply higher, pointing to strengthening trend conditions. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:10 EUR/USD holds gains ahead of busy week – ING
EUR/USD remains firm as markets brace for a packed week of events, including the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, EU Council decisions on Ukraine reparations and Mercosur, and key eurozone data releases.

EUR/USD remains firm as markets brace for a packed week of events, including the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, EU Council decisions on Ukraine reparations and Mercosur, and key eurozone data releases. Resistance at 1.1750/60 will likely determine whether the pair can test 1.1800, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EU Council meeting key for Ukraine loan, Mercosur deal"EUR/USD is holding onto last week's gains. Not only do we have an ECB meeting, but we also have a European Council meeting. Here, EU leaders will be trying to sign off on a reparations loan for Ukraine and also a Mercosur trade deal. The meeting is going to prove a key litmus test of whether Europe can get stuff done or be subject to local interests, such as Belgium on the Ukraine loan or French farmers on Mercosur.""Away from politics, we also have a lively data calendar. Tomorrow marks the release of the flash PMIs for December, which will reveal whether recent optimism holds into the final month of the year. And after November's final CPI release on Thursday, the week concludes with a look at eurozone consumer confidence on Friday. Better confidence will have to be a key driver of eurozone growth in 2026, given the high savings ratios of the region's consumers.""1.1750/60 is now important intra-week resistance for EUR/USD, and the NFP data and the ECB meeting will likely be the two largest determinants of whether EUR/USD ends the week on our preferred target of 1.1800."

14:02 USD/CNH rrades near recent lows – OCBC
USD/CNH remains pressured near recent lows, weighed by broad USD softness and a low USD/CNY fix. While daily momentum is mildly bearish and RSI approaches oversold levels, a break below 7.0380 could trigger further downside, whereas resistance sits at 7.08.

USD/CNH remains pressured near recent lows, weighed by broad USD softness and a low USD/CNY fix. While daily momentum is mildly bearish and RSI approaches oversold levels, a break below 7.0380 could trigger further downside, whereas resistance sits at 7.08. Pair was last seen at 7.0427 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.RMB gradual appreciation supports pair"USD/CNH continued to trade near recent low. Broad USD softness and low USD/CNY fix were some of the factors weighing on the USD/CNH. Last Fri, the fix was set at 7.0638, the lowest in 14 months. The fixing pattern remains consistent since Apr-2025 and we view this as a deliberate move to steer the RMB on a gradual appreciation path while maintaining market order.""Elsewhere we observed that both spot and Bloomberg consensus for daily fix have been below the actual fix for the last 2 weeks. We are monitoring if policymakers would moderate the pace of setting the fix lower or continue with a similar trajectory. The latter may continue to add to downside pressure while the former may see some temporary consolidation in spot." "Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI is near oversold conditions. Support here at 7.0380 levels. A decisive break past these levels risks the pair overshooting towards 7. Another lower USD/CNY fix or broader USD softness may well be see further downside move materialise. Resistance at 7.08 (21 DMA)."

13:54 USD/JPY falls to near 155.00 as Yen capitalizes on upbeat Tankan Q4 survey data
The USD/JPY trades 0.5% lower to near its weekly low around 155.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its peers, following the release of the Japan’s Q4 Tankan Manufacturing Index and Outlook data.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY declines to near the weekly low around 155.00 as the Japanese Yen outperforms across the board.The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75% on Friday.The US Dollar trades lower ahead of the US NFP data on Tuesday.The USD/JPY trades 0.5% lower to near its weekly low around 155.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its peers, following the release of the Japan’s Q4 Tankan Manufacturing Index and Outlook data. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% -0.13% -0.57% 0.00% 0.02% 0.16% -0.03% EUR 0.06% -0.07% -0.53% 0.07% 0.10% 0.23% 0.03% GBP 0.13% 0.07% -0.44% 0.16% 0.15% 0.29% 0.09% JPY 0.57% 0.53% 0.44% 0.60% 0.61% 0.75% 0.55% CAD -0.01% -0.07% -0.16% -0.60% 0.02% 0.15% -0.04% AUD -0.02% -0.10% -0.15% -0.61% -0.02% 0.14% -0.08% NZD -0.16% -0.23% -0.29% -0.75% -0.15% -0.14% -0.20% CHF 0.03% -0.03% -0.09% -0.55% 0.04% 0.08% 0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier in the day, Japan’ Tankan survey showed that large companies expect the outlook of the manufacturing sector is upbeat. Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook improved to 15, as expected, from 14 in the third quarter. This is the highest level seen in four years.Upbeat business sentiment data has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting on Friday. The BoJ is almost certain to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75%.In the monetary policy, investors will also focus on cues about how much the BoJ will raise interest rates in its ongoing monetary tightening campaign.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades lower as investors ponder the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook for 2026.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 64.3% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026. While the Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating one more interest rate cut from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%.Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be published on Tuesday. Economic Indicator Tankan Large Manufacturing Index The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index released by the Bank of Japan presents overall business conditions of the large manufacturing companies in Japan. It is an indicator of the Japanese economy as Japan heavily relies on the manufacturing industry that leads growth for the export-oriented economy. A result above the 0 level is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, whereas a result below 0 is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Sun Dec 14, 2025 23:50 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 15 Consensus: 15 Previous: 14 Source: Bank of Japan

13:47 USD: US data week puts US Dollar in focus – ING
Markets are focused on US macro data and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication, with November NFP expected to show weak job growth and a higher unemployment rate.

Markets are focused on US macro data and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication, with November NFP expected to show weak job growth and a higher unemployment rate. Softer data or dovish Fed signals could revive expectations for a March rate cut, while Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting remains the main external risk for short US Dollar (USD) positions, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Fed speakers could reinforce dovish tilt"In terms of the domestic US story this week, the focus will be on big data releases and key Fed speeches. The highlight is tomorrow's release of the November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. A soft number of +50k is expected, plus the unemployment rate edging up to 4.5%. Any softer-than-expected data here could bring forward pricing of the next Fed rate cut. We think the Fed can cut again in March, which is priced with just a 33% probability currently.""We are also interested in key Fed speeches and particularly whether key figures see room for more cuts. We will hear from New York Fed President John Williams at 4:30pm CET today. He was influential in dovishly shifting market expectations ahead of last week's Fed rate cut. And on Wednesday, we will hear a speech on the economic outlook from Chris Waller – he's been a very influential Fed voice over recent years.""The biggest threat to short dollar positions from overseas probably comes from Thursday's European Central Bank rate meeting, should eurozone growth forecasts not be revised high enough or President Christine Lagarde push back against thoughts of ECB rate hikes in 2026. For today, DXY can probably consolidate in a 98.00-98.50 range."

13:30 USD/JPY consolidates ahead of BOJ meeting – OCBC
USD/JPY remains range-bound as markets brace for the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) expected rate hike this week, with a 92% probability priced in. While the dollar's fate will largely dictate JPY movement, a meaningful JPY recovery hinges on further BOJ guidance and fiscal discipline.

USD/JPY remains range-bound as markets brace for the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) expected rate hike this week, with a 92% probability priced in. While the dollar's fate will largely dictate JPY movement, a meaningful JPY recovery hinges on further BOJ guidance and fiscal discipline. Support is seen at 154.40, with resistance around 156 and 157. Pair was last seen around 155.03 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.JPY recovery depends on BOJ and fiscal prudence"USD/JPY consolidated last week, in absence of additional catalyst. BOJ hike is largely in the price (92% probability priced for 19 Dec) and there may be little room for USD/JPY to venture south unless USD takes another leg lower. We believe USD/JPY is going into upcoming BOJ meeting looking for clues about 2026 not just about Dec meeting outcome." "And we reiterate that any meaningful recovery in JPY would require not just the BOJ to follow through with stronger guidance but also for policymakers to demonstrate fiscal prudence and for the USD to stay soft. Elsewhere, Reuters poll saw markets expect borrowing cost to rise to 1% by end-Sep 2026." "Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact but decline in RSI moderated. We see consolidation in the interim. Support at 154.40 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 153.90 (50 DMA). Resistance at 156(21 DMA), 157 and 158.87 (previous high in 2025)."

13:15 GBP: Soft UK GDP pressures Sterling – ING
Weak UK GDP data has weighed on the pound ahead of a pivotal week featuring jobs data, CPI and a likely Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Weak UK GDP data has weighed on the pound ahead of a pivotal week featuring jobs data, CPI and a likely Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. While markets still underprice easing and point to EUR/GBP upside next year, extremely bearish sterling positioning raises the risk of a sharp short squeeze on any positive surprise, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.BoE cut looms this week"Friday's soft UK October GDP data weighed on the pound. Looking ahead, it is a big week for UK data, central bank policy and sterling. Ahead of Thursday's expected Bank of England rate cut, we will see jobs data (including slowing private sector wage growth) and the November CPI release. On the latter, headline inflation should nudge lower, but core and services CPI should remain firm-ish at 3.4% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively.""A BoE rate cut this Thursday is only priced at an 85% probability. Doves like ourselves at ING expect Governor Andrew Bailey to cross the Rubicon and help deliver a 5-4 vote to cut rates to 3.75%. We then look for a further 50bp of easing in 2026 – a key reason why we see EUR/GBP heading up to 0.90 next year.""One major threat to sterling bears, however, is positioning. Asset managers are currently running some of their shortest sterling positions in over a decade. Any positive surprises could be met with a very sharp sterling short squeeze. Expect to hear of some asset managers buying cheap upside protection in sterling, such as deeply out-of-the-money euro put sterling call options."

13:08 Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD retraces losses and rallies beyond $63.50
line onSilver’s (XAG/USD) appreciates more than $2 so far on Monday, reaching intra-day gains near $63.80 and approaching the fresh all-time highs at $63.65, after bouncing from lows near right below the $61.00 lineon Friday.marketPrecious metals are trading on a firm tone on Monday, fuelled by a ca

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market
Precious metals are trading on a firm tone on Monday, fuelled by a cautious market mood following soft data from China and fresh concerns about the country’s property sector amid news that the state-owned developer, China Vanke, is on the brink of bankruptcy.

Beyond that, US President Trump has pointed to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the best positioned to replace Chairman Powell at the end of his term in May. Trump also said, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, that the next Fed chair will have to listen to him when deciding about monetary policy, which points towards further monetary easing next year.Technical Analysis: Silver has an important support at the $61.00 area
The 4-hour chart shows the XAG/USD pair trading at $63.73, above 3% above the day’s open. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 stays above its midline, keeping momentum positive without overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), on the other hand, has slipped below zero, reinforcing a cautious tone.The pair keeps trading within a rising channel from mid-November lows at $48.57, with bulls aiming for Friday's high, at $64.66, and the top of the channel, now in the area of $66.00. Further up, the 70.00 psychological level emerges as the next target.

On the downside, the area between trendline support now around $61.45 and Friday's low, at $60.80, is likely to pose a significant challenge for bears. A confirmation below here would open the path towards the October 7, 8, and 9 lows, in the area of $57.60.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

13:04 When is the Canadian inflation data for November and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November is scheduled to be published today at 13:30 GMT.

12:29 Gold breaks out of consolidation – Société Générale
Gold has confirmed a bullish breakout above its multi-week consolidation, signalling a renewed uptrend.

Gold has confirmed a bullish breakout above its multi-week consolidation, signalling a renewed uptrend. Prices may grind higher toward the October high near $4380 and potentially the $4540 projection, while the $4170–$4150 area is now critical support for maintaining upside momentum, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Bullish trend reasserts itself"Gold has broken above the upper boundary of its multi-week consolidation, highlighting a resumption of the uptrend. It may inch higher towards the October peak near $4380 and potentially towards the next projection at $4540." "In the event of a short-term pullback, the recent pivot low around $4170/$4150 should act as key support. Defence of this zone is crucial for continuation in up move."

12:17 China: Domestic demand weakens – Standard Chartered
November IP growth remained solid at 4.8% y/y thanks to an export-growth rebound after the trade deal. Real estate and infrastructure FAI declined deeper; policy makers vowed to stabilise investment.

November IP growth remained solid at 4.8% y/y thanks to an export-growth rebound after the trade deal. Real estate and infrastructure FAI declined deeper; policy makers vowed to stabilise investment. Retail sales of goods softened as policy effect faded, but services sales picked up, Standard Chartered's economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding report. Increased sense of urgency to stabilise demand"November real activity data suggests that (strong) supply / (weak) demand imbalances persisted in China. Industrial production (IP) m/m growth accelerated in November thanks to a rebound in export growth, while both retail sales and fixed asset investment (FAI) declined m/m, with the latter falling for 10 straight months. This imbalance was highlighted as a key domestic challenge at the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC).""The rebound in export growth (5.9% y/y) supported production activity. IP growth moderated 0.1ppt to 4.8% y/y with the 2Y CAGR staying at 5.1% y/y on our estimate. Meanwhile, services production index growth edged down 0.6ppt to 4.2% y/y, likely dragged down by real estate, residence services and tourism. Investment and retail sales turned weaker. FAI contracted deeper by 2.6% y/y in 11M-2025, mainly dragged down by real estate (-15.9% y/y) and infrastructure (-1.1% y/y) investment. Retail sales growth slumped to the slowest rate after 2022 at 1.3% y/y, partly due to the fading boost from the consumer-goods trade-in programme and normalising sales of gold and other jewellery. That said, services retail sales growth accelerated.""Weaker-than-expected October-November data indicates softer q/q growth momentum from Q3. We forecast Q4 and 2025 annual growth at 4.4% y/y and 4.9%, respectively. The CEWC vowed to stabilise investment by expanding central budgetary spending. The government will also continue to issue ultra-long-term central special bonds to subsidise consumption in 2026."

12:14 USD/MXN resumes downtrend – Société Générale
USD/MXN has turned lower again after failing to reclaim its 50-day moving average, breaking beneath consolidation support and reviving bearish momentum. The focus now shifts to downside targets near 17.85–17.60, with rallies likely capped around 18.37, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/MXN has turned lower again after failing to reclaim its 50-day moving average, breaking beneath consolidation support and reviving bearish momentum. The focus now shifts to downside targets near 17.85–17.60, with rallies likely capped around 18.37, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Break below consolidation signals weakness"USD/MXN has extended its decline after failing to establish itself above the 50-DMA (currently near 18.37) during its recent rebound attempt. The pair has broken below the lower boundary of its brief consolidation, signalling a resurgence of downward momentum." "The next objectives could be located at 17.85/17.80, followed by the July 2024 lows near 17.60. If a short-term bounce occurs, the 50-DMA near 18.37 may provide resistance."

12:06 Eurozone Industrial Production rises unexpectedly by 0.8% MoM in October vs. 0.1% estimates
The Eurozone industrial sector activity unexpectedly expanded in October at a robust pace of 0.8% against 0.2% in September, according to the latest data published by Eurostat on Wednesday. Economists expected the data to rise moderately by 0.1%.

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) rose from previous 1.2% to 2% in October
Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) rose from previous 1.2% to 2% in October

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.1%) in October
Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.1%) in October

11:59 US: Labour demand slipped way before supply – Standard Chartered
NFP likely has been overstated since April 2024 by c.60k per month owing to birth-death adjustments. Actual job growth likely was much weaker in 2024 than the market had initially perceived.

NFP likely has been overstated since April 2024 by c.60k per month owing to birth-death adjustments. Actual job growth likely was much weaker in 2024 than the market had initially perceived. Labour demand started to soften months ahead of the immigration crackdown, Standard Chartered's economists Steve Englander and Dan Pan report. 2024 wasn’t as golden as it seemed"Fed Chair Powell noted at the December FOMC meeting that the NFP data is likely being overstated by 60k per month given the upward bias from the BLS birth-death (B-D) adjustment. Our estimate of overstatement is 70k, but we will use Powell’s 60k in this report. Moreover, we agree with Powell that the overstatement has continued beyond the already announced March 2025 preliminary downward benchmark revision.""Our puzzle is that after all the talk about immigration driving up employment growth, it turns out that 2024 was far from brilliant when revisions are accounted for and we assume the 60k overstatement. The conventional view is that immigration pumped up 2024 employment growth before dropping sharply in 2025. However, our calculation shows that labour demand had slipped way before the immigration crackdown started by the Trump administration.""After correcting for bias, the ‘actual’ NFP likely averaged 70k between April and December 2024, whereas the initial data releases ran at an average 150k per month. If we use QCEW data and other regression methods to back out nonfarm payroll growth between March and December 2024, we find even bigger downward adjustments."

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.83 per troy ounce, up 3.19% from the $61.85 it cost on Friday.

10:50 GBP/JPY tumbles to near 207.00 as Yen gains on strong business confidence
The GBP/JPY pair is down 0.5% around 207.30 during the European trading session. The pair faces intense selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board, following the release of the Japan’s Tankan Q4 business sentiment data.

GBP/JPY slumps to near 207.00, following the upbeat Japan’s Tankan survey Q4 data.Tankan Q4 Large Manufacturing Index rises to 15, the highest level seen in four years.The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75% this week, while the BoE might reduce them at similar pace to 3.75%.The GBP/JPY pair is down 0.5% around 207.30 during the European trading session. The pair faces intense selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board, following the release of the Japan’s Tankan Q4 business sentiment data.The data showed that the headline index measuring big manufacturers' business confidence rose to 15 quarter ending December, the highest figure seen in four years. In the previous quarter, BOJ's "tankan" survey showed up at 14.Upbeat Japan’s manufacturing business sentiment data has reinforced expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the monetary policy announcement on Friday.The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% Governor Kazuo Ueda stated recently that central bank is getting closer to achieve its inflation target.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly calm ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for three-months ending October. The data is expected to show that the Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1%, and Average Earnings excluding bonuses grew moderately by 4.5%. Signs of rising jobless rate and slowing wage growth would boost expectations of an interest rate cut by the BoE in its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.The BoE is already anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75% amid weak labor demand and easing inflationary pressures.

10:37 EUR/USD fluctuates near highs in cautious markets ahead of a busy week
EUR/USD trades with moderate losses, although it remains near 1.1730 at the time of writing, with the 1.1762 multi-month high at a short distance. Investors turn cautious ahead of an array of delayed US macroeconomic releases and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.

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EUR/USD trades with moderate losses, although it remains near 1.1730 at the time of writing, with the 1.1762 multi-month high at a short distance. Investors turn cautious ahead of an array of delayed US macroeconomic releases and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.The pair consolidates gains after rallying nearly 2% over the last three weeks, as investors positioned for last week's interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and for US President Donald Trump's pick to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is expected to be a dovish loyalist.Investors, however, have shown a cautious mood during Monday's Asian session, reluctant to take excessive risks ahead of key macroeconomic releases later this week, namely the delayed October and November's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports on Tuesday, and November's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) on Thursday. In between, the ECB will release its monetary policy decision also on Thursday. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.01% -0.02% -0.50% -0.04% 0.00% 0.26% -0.01% EUR -0.01% -0.04% -0.51% -0.04% -0.01% 0.24% -0.02% GBP 0.02% 0.04% -0.46% -0.02% 0.03% 0.28% 0.01% JPY 0.50% 0.51% 0.46% 0.44% 0.49% 0.74% 0.47% CAD 0.04% 0.04% 0.02% -0.44% 0.05% 0.30% 0.03% AUD -0.01% 0.00% -0.03% -0.49% -0.05% 0.24% -0.04% NZD -0.26% -0.24% -0.28% -0.74% -0.30% -0.24% -0.26% CHF 0.00% 0.02% -0.01% -0.47% -0.03% 0.04% 0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: Monetary policy divergence supports the EuroThe Euro (EUR) holds most of the gains from the last three weeks on Monday, supported by the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. The Fed is expected to cut rates at least once in 2026, while the ECB has suggested that the next monetary policy change might be a rate hike.On Friday, President Trump stated in an interview that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is the best-positioned candidate to replace Chairman Powell at the end of his term in May. Trump has also mentioned White House economist Kevin Hassett as a candidate for the job. The President also said that the next central bank Chair should listen to his opinion when deciding the future direction of interest rates. Data from China released earlier on Monday revealed that Industrial Production slowed down against expectations in November, while retail consumption grew at its lowest pace in nearly two years. These figures have renewed concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy and hammered risk appetite during the Asian session.Also in China, news that the state-backed property developer China Vanke is struggling to find a way to avoid bankruptcy has brought concerns about the country's property sector back to the table, further souring market sentiment.On the Eurozone calendar on Monday, the main focus will be on October's Industrial Product figures, which are expected to show a 0.1% advance, following a 0.2% growth in September.In the US, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is seen dropping to 10.6 in December from 18.7 in the previous month. After that, Fed Governor Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams will appear in public and might give further clues about the central bank's monetary policy plans.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD consolidates gains after a sharp rallyEUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
The EUR/USD is trading within a tight range, right below the multi-month highs of 1.1762 hit last week. This consolidation phase is allowing the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) to retreat from overbought territory, yet still standing at levels consistent with a solid bullish trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, however, shows an impending bearish cross, suggesting that a further correction might be ahead.Immediate support is at the December 12 low, near 1.1720. Beyond that, Thursday's low, at the 1.1680 area, and the December 9 low at 1.1615 will come into focus. To the upside, the December 11 high, at 1.1762, and the October 1 peak at around 1.1780 are likely to challenge bulls. Further up, the target is the September 23 and 24 highs near 1.1820. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:24 Pound Sterling steadies as BoE decision, key UK data loom
The Pound Sterling (GBP) starts the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy week on a cautious note against its major peers.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades with caution at the start of the week ahead of key UK data and the BoE’s monetary policy decision.Investors expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75% on Thursday.Before the BoE decision, UK unemployment and inflation data will be published.The Pound Sterling (GBP) starts the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy week on a cautious note against its major peers. However, the British currency braces for volatility and might face selling pressure this week amid a flurry of economic data releases and strong expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%.Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect the BoE to reduce interest rates by 25 bps, with a 5-4 vote split amid signs of easing inflationary pressures and a softer labor market. In October, the United Kingdom’s (UK) core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – grew by 3.4% year-on-year, the lowest figure seen since March.Ahead of the BoE’s policy announcement, the UK CPI data for November will be published on Wednesday, which is expected to show that core inflation rremained at 3.4%.On Tuesday, the UK labour market data for the three months ending October and the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December are scheduled to be released. The employment data is expected to show that the jobless rate accelerated further and wage growth cooled.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling flattens against US Dollar ahead of US NFP dataThe Pound Sterling trades flat around 1.3370 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and for November, which is scheduled to be published on Tuesday.Investors will closely monitor the US employment data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The Fed has reduced its interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) in the last three monetary policy meetings, and comments from officials have signaled that the major driver behind rate cuts was weak labor market conditions.On Friday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said in a Linkedin post that she favored interest rate cuts, adding that “inflation is too high and the job market is getting softer, but we cannot let the labor market falter", Reuters reported.On Tuesday, investors will also focus on US Retail Sales for October and flash S&P Global PMI data for December.Broadly, the Cable is upbeat as the US Dollar (USD) remains close to its eight-week low amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate cuts in 2026 than officials signaled in the dot plot last week.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution near its eight-week low of 98.13.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 64.3% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026. This market bets defy the last Fed’s dot plot, which showed that policymakers see the Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating just one more interest rate cut from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD aims to break above 50% Fibo retracement at 1.3400
GBP/USD trades steadily around 1.3366 as of writing. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3286 rises, and the pair holds above it, keeping the near-term bias pointed higher. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 reflects positive momentum without overbought conditions. Measured from the 1.3783 high to the 1.3008 low, the 38.2% retracement at 1.3304 has been cleared, underpinning the recovery tone. The 50% retracement at 1.3395 marks immediate resistance, and a break higher would extend the rebound towards 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.3488. Failure to top that barrier could see consolidation back toward the moving average.The trend remains supported while price sustains above the ascending 20-day EMA, though a drop beneath 1.3286 would open the door for further downside towards the December low of 1.3180.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:19 Swiss government projects inflation to average 0.2% in 2025 and 2026
The report by State Secretariat of Economic Affairs on Economic Forecasts shows that the inflation is projected to average at 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, and is estimated to grow by 0.5% in 2027.

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance climbed from previous -223.2B to 169.5B in November
Turkey Budget Balance climbed from previous -223.2B to 169.5B in November

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance: 169.49B (November) vs -223.2B
Turkey Budget Balance: 169.49B (November) vs -223.2B

09:49 India Trade Deficit Government: $24.53B (November) vs previous $41.68B
India Trade Deficit Government: $24.53B (November) vs previous $41.68B

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.1%) in November
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.1%) in November

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) up to -1.6% in November from previous -1.7%
Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) up to -1.6% in November from previous -1.7%

09:07 USD/CHF flat lines near 0.7950 as traders await US employment reports
USD/CHF holds steady near 0.7960 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited as markets turn cautious ahead of key economic data releases later this week. The US employment reports for October and November are due on Tuesday.

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Traders await the US employment reports for October and November, which are due on Tuesday.Uncertainty and a risk-off mood could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc in the near term. USD/CHF holds steady near 0.7960 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited as markets turn cautious ahead of key economic data releases later this week. The US employment reports for October and November are due on Tuesday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Thursday. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement more interest rate cuts in 2026 weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Summary of Economic Projections, or so-called "dot plot,” indicated a median forecast of one additional Fed rate reduction next year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) held its policy rate at 0% and is expected to maintain this stance for an extended period to manage inflation. Traders turn cautious and brace for the key US economic data later this week. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November, which were delayed due to a US government shutdown, are set to be released on Tuesday. The risk-off market environment could support the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and act as a headwind for the pair. "From policymakers' perspective... this set of data, whatever the outcome is, they will probably interpret it more carefully than usual. The main thing you want to do is to tease out the trend in terms of the labour market in the U.S.,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. Traders will closely watch these reports, as they might offer some hints about the labor market's health and the US interest rate path. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback against the CHF in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

08:31 India WPI Inflation came in at -0.32%, above forecasts (-0.6%) in November
India WPI Inflation came in at -0.32%, above forecasts (-0.6%) in November

08:12 Forex Today: Markets stay calm to start busy week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 15:

07:56 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains intact near 103.00 despite weak China data
The AUD/JPY cross tumbles to near 103.15 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as China’s economic slowdown deepened in November, with Retail Sales and industrial output growth falling short of expectations.

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 103.15. The pair holds well above the rising 100-day EMA at 99.38, keeping the medium-term bias bullish. The EMA’s steady ascent underscores persistent demand. Price sits above the Bollinger midline at 102.42 and below the upper band at 104.42, signaling ongoing bullish pressure without overextension. RSI at 60.04 remains above the neutral 50 mark after easing from recent highs, indicating momentum is cooling but still positive.Upside continuation would need a decisive move through the Bollinger upper band at 104.42 to extend the advance. On pullbacks, initial support aligns with the Bollinger midline at 102.42, while the 100-day EMA at 99.38 would serve as a deeper floor. Bollinger Bands slope higher, keeping the directional bias to the upside. RSI holding near 60 would favor dips being bought; a slide toward 50 could pivot price back toward the midline.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

07:49 USD/CAD sees more downside below 1.3750 as traders assess Fed’s outlook for 2026
The USD/CAD pair trades vulnerably near its almost three-month low around 1.3750 during the late Asian trading session on Monday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD struggles to hold ground near its almost three-month low of 1.3750.US President Trump wants the Fed to deliver more interest rate cuts.Investors await Canadian inflation and the US NFP data for November.The USD/CAD pair trades vulnerably near its almost three-month low around 1.3750 during the late Asian trading session on Monday. The Loonie pair has been under pressure, struggling to regain ground as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms, with investors assessing the United States (US) interest rate outlook for 2026.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution near its eight-week low of 98.13 posted on Thursday. US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.74% -0.24% -0.11% -0.47% -0.12% -0.14% -0.98% EUR 0.74% 0.54% 0.69% 0.32% 0.68% 0.65% -0.20% GBP 0.24% -0.54% 0.17% -0.22% 0.14% 0.11% -0.73% JPY 0.11% -0.69% -0.17% -0.36% 0.00% -0.02% -0.85% CAD 0.47% -0.32% 0.22% 0.36% 0.36% 0.34% -0.53% AUD 0.12% -0.68% -0.14% -0.00% -0.36% -0.03% -0.87% NZD 0.14% -0.65% -0.11% 0.02% -0.34% 0.03% -0.84% CHF 0.98% 0.20% 0.73% 0.85% 0.53% 0.87% 0.84% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 64.3% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026. While the Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see the Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating one more interest rate cut from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%.Fed dovish expectations are prompted by weak United States (US) labour market conditions, and the continuous endorsement for more interest rate cuts by President Donald Trump. Last week, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated that the President was pleased to see the 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate reduction, but he thinks more should be done.For fresh cues on the current state of the US employment, investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades firmly against its peers from the past few trading days on expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is done with reducing interest rates in the near term. In the monetary policy statement last week, the BoC reiterated that the “current rate is at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%” as long as the “economy and inflation evolve in line with projections”.In Monday’s session, the Canadian Dollar will be influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The headline CPI is expected to grow at a faster pace of 2.4% year-on-year against 2.2% in October. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Mon Dec 15, 2025 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.4% Previous: 2.2% Source: Statistics Canada

07:44 WTI trades with positive bias above mid-$57.00s; upside potential seems limited
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attract some buying during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak.

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The commodity is currently trading just above mid-$57.00s, up 0.45% for the day, though the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from its lowest level since October 21, touched last Thursday.Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated further last week after President Donald Trump announced that the US Coast Guard seized an oil tanker on the coast of Venezuela. This, in turn, fuels concerns about potential disruptions from Venezuela and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. Apart from this, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) is seen as another factor lending some support to the commodity.Despite the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) caution about further policy easing, traders are still pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2026. This, in turn, fails to assist the Greenback to register any meaningful recovery from a two-month low, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD-denominated commodities, including Oil prices. The upside, however, seems capped amid lingering oversupply worries and a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.In the latest geopolitical development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held five hours of talks with US envoys on Sunday and offered to drop his country's aspiration to join the NATO military alliance. Moreover, US envoy Steve Witkoff said that a lot of progress was made, though he did not provide additional details. Negotiations are set to continue on Monday, though the optimism might continue to act as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

07:32 USD/INR continues its bull run amid consistent foreign outflows from India
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a bearish note against the US Dollar (USD), extends its losing streak for the third trading day.

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The USD/INR pair refreshes its all-time high near 91.00 as the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market amid the absence of any trade deal announcement between the United States (US) and India is consistently hurting the Indian Rupee.The US and India have not yet reached a consensus, even as US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated last week that the latest offer by New Delhi is the "best ever" Washington has seen.So far in December, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days, and have offloaded stake worth Rs. 19,605.51 crore.On the domestic front, India’s retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) has come in higher at 0.71% on an annualized basis, as expected, from 0.25% in October. However, it remains well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance band of 2%-6%, keeping the door open for further interest rate cuts.Earlier this month, the RBI also reduced its Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% and kept a neutral stance on the monetary policy outlook.In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation data for November, which will be published at 06:30 GMT. The data is expected to show that inflation at the producer level deflated at a moderate pace of 0.6% year-on-year compared to a 1.21% decline seen in October.Daily digest market movers: Trump reduces options for Fed Chair’s potential candidate to twoThe Indian Rupee continues to underperform the US Dollar, even as the latter remains on tenterhooks amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate cuts next year than what it had signaled in the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles near its eight-week low of 98.13 posted on Thursday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 64.3% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026. While the Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see the Federal Funds Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating one more interest rate cut from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%.Fed dovish bets for the next year are backed by firm hopes of Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement with a US President Donald Trump’s candidate, whose decisions will be biased by Trump’s economic agenda.US President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Powell several times for holding interest rates at higher levels since his return to the White House. Trump stated last week that he is happy with the Fed easing monetary conditions, but wants more from them.Meanwhile, a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed on Friday that US President Trump is leaning towards either former National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett or Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Chairman Powell this year. "I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both - I think the two Kevins are great," Trump said.On the domestic front, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday. Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data as its impact will be significant on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, knowing that weak labor market conditions majorly drove a 100 bps reduction in interest rates this year.Technical Analysis: USD/INR jumps to near 91.00
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.9390. The 20-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 89.9414 rises and price holds above it, keeping the short-term trend pointed higher. The rising trend line from 88.6408 underpins the bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.70 sits in overbought territory, which could cap near-term gains as momentum stretches.The upward-sloping average should act as first support on dips, while a daily close below it would signal a deeper correction towards the round-level figure of 90.00. While, a sustained strength above the current level would extend the advance towards 92.00.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:00 Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:31 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM): 0.9% (October) vs 0.3%
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM): 0.9% (October) vs 0.3%

05:23 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces off 100-hour SMA; sticks to gains near $62.50
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's retracement slide from the all-time peak, around the $64.65 region.

05:15 AUD/USD trades lower around 0.6650 amid unexpectedly weak China data
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.10% lower to near 0.6645 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair is under pressure as the National Bureau of Statistics of China has reported unexpectedly weak Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for November.

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The Aussie pair is under pressure as the National Bureau of Statistics of China has reported unexpectedly weak Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for November.The impact of a dramatic change in Chinese domestic data remains significant on the Australian Dollar (AUD), given the higher dependence of the Australian economy on its exports to Beijing.China’s Retail Sales grew by 1.3% on an annualized basis in November, while they were anticipated to rise steadily by 2.9%. The Industrial Production data came in at 4.8%, down from 4.9% in October. Economists anticipated the factory data to have risen by 5%.The Australian Dollar has been correcting over the last two trading days, following the release of the weak labour market data for November. The data on Thursday showed that the economy shed 21.3K jobs in November, while it was expected to have added 20K fresh workers, raising concerns over the labor market strength.Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the Aussie pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to regain ground amid hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate cuts in 2026 than it had projected in last week’s policy meeting. In the policy announcement on Wednesday, the Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers collectively see the Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by the end of 2026, indicating that there will be only one interest rate cut next year.This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:05 Japanese Yen rises amid BoJ rate hike bets; USD/JPY slides below mid-155.00s
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week as traders keenly await the highly-anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision on Friday. Market expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike in December have risen recently amid a shift in rhetoric from Governor Kazuo Ueda.

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Market expectations for an imminent BoJ rate hike in December have risen recently amid a shift in rhetoric from Governor Kazuo Ueda. Moreover, inflation in Japan remains above the BoJ's 2% target, which, along with an improvement in the business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers, backs the case for further policy tightening. This, along with a weaker risk tone, underpins the safe-haven JPY.However, worries about Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition, amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's massive spending plan, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing fresh bets. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languishes near a two-month low, touched last Thursday, in the wake of rising bets for two more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a significant divergence compared to hawkish BoJ expectations, which, in turn, drags the USD/JPY pair back below mid-155.00s during the Asian session and backs the case for a further depreciating move.Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid firming BoJ rate hike expectationsAccording to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released earlier this Monday, the business confidence index at large manufacturers in Japan rose to 15 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 14.0 in the previous quarter. Further details revealed that the large Manufacturing Outlook arrived at 15.0 vs 12.0 prior.Commenting on the Tankan survey, a senior BoJ official said that Japanese firms cited easing uncertainty around US trade policy and resilient demand in high-tech sectors as key factors supporting business sentiment. Firms cited pass-through of costs and robust demand as factors brightening the business outlook.Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently said that the central bank is getting closer to attaining its inflation target. This reaffirms market bets for an imminent BoJ interest rate hike at the end of the December 18-19 policy meeting and backs the case for further policy tightening going into 2026.Moreover, reports suggest that top officials in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet are unlikely to oppose a BoJ rate hike. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place bullish bets around the Japanese Yen and opt to wait for more cues about the BoJ's future policy path before positioning for further gains.Hence, the focus will remain glued to Ueda’s post-meeting press conference on Friday. In the meantime, Takaichi's massive spending plan has exacerbated concerns about Japan's public finances amid sluggish economic growth, which, in turn, is seen as another factor acting as a headwind for the JPY.The US Dollar, on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near a two-month low touched last Thursday amid dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The Fed signaled caution about further rate cuts, though traders are pricing in two more interest rate cuts next year.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that he had narrowed the list of contenders to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair and expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts. The prospect of a Trump-aligned Fed chair keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and caps the USD/JPY pair.Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week's important US macro releases – including the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October on Tuesday and the latest inflation figures on Thursday. In the meantime, the divergent BoJ-Fed outlooks might continue to support the lower-yielding JPY.USD/JPY seems vulnerable while below the 100-hour SMA hurdle near the 156.00 markFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been struggling to move back above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the subsequent slide favors bearish traders. However, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any further decline is more likely to find decent support near the 155.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter would turn spot prices vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the monthly low, around the 154.35 area, en route to the 154.00 mark.On the flip side, the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged at the 156.00 round figure, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying beyond Friday's swing high, around the 156.10-156.15 region, might trigger a short-covering move and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 157.00 neighborhood. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for additional gains towards the 157.45 intermediate hurdle en route to a multi-month top, around the 158.00 neighborhood, touched in November. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:37 NZD/USD declines below 0.5800 on weak Chinese data
The NZD/USD pair loses ground to around 0.5780 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar following the downbeat Chinese economic data.

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China’s Retail Sales rose 1.3% YoY in November, weaker than expected. Traders brace for the US October NFP report on Tuesday.The NZD/USD pair loses ground to around 0.5780 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar following the downbeat Chinese economic data. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are set to speak later in the day, including Fed Governor Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams. The delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October will be the highlight on Tuesday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Retail Sales rose 1.3% YoY in November, compared to 2.9% in October. This figure came in weaker than the market expectation of 2.9% by a wide margin. Meanwhile, Chinese Industrial Production increased 4.8% YoY in the same period, versus 5.0% forecast and 4.9% prior. The worse-than-estimated Chinese economic data exert some selling pressure on China’s proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand. Early Monday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said that the economic outlook has evolved broadly in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s expectations, with signs continuing to emerge that growth is recovering. While a slight chance of another rate cut exists, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time if conditions evolve as expected. The cautious stance from the RBNZ Governor could help limit the NZD’s losses in the near term. The Fed last week announced its third and final quarter-point rate reduction this year, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that policymakers need time to see how the Fed's three cuts this year work their way through the US economy. Traders will closely monitor the US October NFP report on Tuesday. This report could provide more clarity on the labor market's health and likely influence expectations for the Fed's January meeting. Any signs of a weakening US labor market could drag the Greenback lower and create a tailwind for the pair. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

04:13 RBNZ’s Breman: Economic outlook has evolved broadly similar to MPC’s expectations
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said on Monday that the economic outlook has evolved broadly in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s expectations, with signs continuing to emerge that growth is recovering.

04:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (5%) in November: Actual (4.8%)
China Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (5%) in November: Actual (4.8%)

04:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.3%, below expectations (2.9%) in November
China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.3%, below expectations (2.9%) in November

04:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below forecasts (-2.3%) in November: Actual (-2.6%)
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below forecasts (-2.3%) in November: Actual (-2.6%)

03:35 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges higher above $4,300 on Fed rate cut bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $4,315 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its upside to the highest since October 21 amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next year.

03:30 China House Price Index down to -2.4% in November from previous -2.2%
China House Price Index down to -2.4% in November from previous -2.2%

03:27 GBP/USD holds steady above mid-1.3300s as traders await key data and BoE this week
The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3360 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0656 vs. 7.0638 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0656 compared to Friday's fix of 7.0638.

02:58 EUR/USD trades with negative bias around 1.1730 amid recovering USD; downside seems limited
The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since early October, touched last Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1730 region, down less than 0.10% for the day.

02:50 BoJ official: Tankan survey shows easing trade fears but rising cost pressures
Japanese firms cited easing uncertainty around US trade policy and resilient demand in high-tech sectors as key factors supporting business sentiment, according to comments from a senior Bank of Japan (BoJ) official on the Tankan survey.

02:37 Ukraine offers to drop NATO bid as Trump envoy sees progress in peace talks — Reuters
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop its long-held ambition of joining NATO as he held five hours of talks with US envoys in Berlin on Sunday to end the war with Russia, with talks expected to resume Monday, Reuters reported on Sunday.

02:13 Sixteen killed in terror shooting at Bondi Beach — Bloomberg
A mass shooting at Bondi Beach in the Australian city of Sydney has killed at least 16 people and wounded 40. The officials stated that the death toll includes two police officers and at least one child, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

02:03 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) remains unchanged at -1.8% in December
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) remains unchanged at -1.8% in December

02:03 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.6% in December from previous -0.5%
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.6% in December from previous -0.5%

02:00 When are the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production and how could they affect AUD/USD?
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for November at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in November. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.0% YoY in the same period versus 4.9% prior.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} China Retail Sales, Industrial Production OverviewThe National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for November at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in November. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.0% YoY in the same period versus 4.9% prior.Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Meanwhile, Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. How could the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production affect AUD/USD?AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production data. The pair gains ground as US Dollar (USD) softens amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next year.If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the December 11 high of 0.6680. The next resistance level emerges at the September 17 high of 0.6707, en route to the October 14, 2024 high of 0.6750.To the downside, the December 11 low of 0.6626 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the October 28 high of 0.6590. The next contention level is located at the 100-day EMA of 0.6540. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Mon Dec 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.9% Previous: 2.9% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

01:56 Japan's Large Manufacturing Index rises to 15.0 in the fouth quarter (Q4) of 2025 – Tankan survey
Business confidence at large manufacturers in Japan rose to 15.0 in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from 14.0 in Q3, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday. This reading came in line with the market consensus.

01:51 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook in line with expectations (28) in 4Q
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook in line with expectations (28) in 4Q

01:51 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook above expectations (13) in 4Q: Actual (15)
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook above expectations (13) in 4Q: Actual (15)

01:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (35) in 4Q: Actual (34)
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (35) in 4Q: Actual (34)

01:50 Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (12%) in 4Q: Actual (12.6%)
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (12%) in 4Q: Actual (12.6%)

01:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (15) in 4Q
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (15) in 4Q

01:42 China to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year — Bloomberg
China’s finance ministry said that the government planned to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2026, with proceeds used to support key national strategies and security initiatives, Bloomberg reported on Saturday.

01:17 USD/JPY weakens below 156.00 amid Fed rate cut outlook, BoJ rate hike anticipation
The USD/JPY pair trades on a negative note near 155.75 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next year.

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17:43 Canada: Home sales remained flat in November – NBC Canadian home sales were broadly unchanged in November, with weakness across most provinces offset by gains in the West.

17:40 GBP/USD nears 1.3400 as traders brace for BoE cut GBP/USD advances during the North American session up 0.28% amid a scarce economic docket but following the Federal Reserve’s last week’s monetary policy decision, in which the central bank hinted a possible pause loom.

17:00 Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (12%) in October: Actual (10%) Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (12%) in October: Actual (10%)

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index above forecasts (38) in December: Actual (39) United States NAHB Housing Market Index above forecasts (38) in December: Actual (39)

16:38 USD/CAD trims losses after softer Canadian inflation data The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trims part of its earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders digest the latest inflation data from Canada.

16:27 NZD weakens after RBNZ signals cautious policy – BBH The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed across G10 currencies after Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman dampened market expectations for rate hikes in 2026, BBH FX analysts report.

16:20 GBP edges up ahead of busy UK data week – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained slightly against the US Dollar (USD) as markets prepare for a heavy UK data calendar ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting.

16:09 EUR steady in mid-1.17s ahead of ECB Thursday – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is steady, trading in a tight range in the mid 1.17s and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional gain vs. the US Dollar (USD).

16:06 USD/CAD remains heavy near 1.3765 – BBH USD/CAD is trading near recent lows around 1.3765 following the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25%.

15:57 CAD holds steady near Friday’s close against USD – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains near Friday’s closing level versus the US Dollar (USD), trading just below its estimated fair value of 1.3798.

15:53 USD/JPY holds near 155 amid strong Tankan survey – BBH USD/JPY trades near 155.00 following a strong Q4 Tankan survey, with Japan’s all-industries business conditions index rising to 17, the highest since Q3 2018, BBH FX analysts report.

15:33 EUR/JPY weakens as markets price near-certain BoJ rate hike The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, as the Yen strengthens broadly amid near-certain expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its December 19 policy meeting.

15:31 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) declined to -0.1% in November from previous 0.6% Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) declined to -0.1% in November from previous 0.6%

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in November Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in November

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (November) vs previous 0.2% Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (November) vs previous 0.2%

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) unchanged at 2.9% in November Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) unchanged at 2.9% in November

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.4%) in November: Actual (2.2%) Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.4%) in November: Actual (2.2%)

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -3.9, below expectations (10.6) in December United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -3.9, below expectations (10.6) in December

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 254.1K, above forecasts (248K) in November Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 254.1K, above forecasts (248K) in November

14:16 USD slides Against major currencies – BBH The US Dollar (USD) is trading defensively across major currencies, with potential to drift toward the lower end of its June–December range.

14:14 Gold trades firmly below all-time high on Fed, Geopolitical risks Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a firm footing, extending its advance for a fifth consecutive day as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook keeps traders defensive.

14:10 EUR/USD holds gains ahead of busy week – ING EUR/USD remains firm as markets brace for a packed week of events, including the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, EU Council decisions on Ukraine reparations and Mercosur, and key eurozone data releases.

13:47 USD: US data week puts US Dollar in focus – ING Markets are focused on US macro data and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication, with November NFP expected to show weak job growth and a higher unemployment rate.

13:15 GBP: Soft UK GDP pressures Sterling – ING Weak UK GDP data has weighed on the pound ahead of a pivotal week featuring jobs data, CPI and a likely Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

13:04 When is the Canadian inflation data for November and how could it affect USD/CAD? Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November is scheduled to be published today at 13:30 GMT.

12:29 Gold breaks out of consolidation – Société Générale Gold has confirmed a bullish breakout above its multi-week consolidation, signalling a renewed uptrend.

12:17 China: Domestic demand weakens – Standard Chartered November IP growth remained solid at 4.8% y/y thanks to an export-growth rebound after the trade deal. Real estate and infrastructure FAI declined deeper; policy makers vowed to stabilise investment.

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) rose from previous 1.2% to 2% in October Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) rose from previous 1.2% to 2% in October

12:00 Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.1%) in October Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.1%) in October

11:59 US: Labour demand slipped way before supply – Standard Chartered NFP likely has been overstated since April 2024 by c.60k per month owing to birth-death adjustments. Actual job growth likely was much weaker in 2024 than the market had initially perceived.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.83 per troy ounce, up 3.19% from the $61.85 it cost on Friday.

10:24 Pound Sterling steadies as BoE decision, key UK data loom The Pound Sterling (GBP) starts the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy week on a cautious note against its major peers.

10:19 Swiss government projects inflation to average 0.2% in 2025 and 2026 The report by State Secretariat of Economic Affairs on Economic Forecasts shows that the inflation is projected to average at 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, and is estimated to grow by 0.5% in 2027.

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance climbed from previous -223.2B to 169.5B in November Turkey Budget Balance climbed from previous -223.2B to 169.5B in November

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance: 169.49B (November) vs -223.2B Turkey Budget Balance: 169.49B (November) vs -223.2B

09:49 India Trade Deficit Government: $24.53B (November) vs previous $41.68B India Trade Deficit Government: $24.53B (November) vs previous $41.68B

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.1%) in November Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.1%) in November

09:30 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) up to -1.6% in November from previous -1.7% Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) up to -1.6% in November from previous -1.7%

08:31 India WPI Inflation came in at -0.32%, above forecasts (-0.6%) in November India WPI Inflation came in at -0.32%, above forecasts (-0.6%) in November

08:12 Forex Today: Markets stay calm to start busy week Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 15:

07:49 USD/CAD sees more downside below 1.3750 as traders assess Fed’s outlook for 2026 The USD/CAD pair trades vulnerably near its almost three-month low around 1.3750 during the late Asian trading session on Monday.

07:44 WTI trades with positive bias above mid-$57.00s; upside potential seems limited West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices attract some buying during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak.

07:32 USD/INR continues its bull run amid consistent foreign outflows from India The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a bearish note against the US Dollar (USD), extends its losing streak for the third trading day.

07:00 Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:31 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM): 0.9% (October) vs 0.3% Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM): 0.9% (October) vs 0.3%

05:23 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces off 100-hour SMA; sticks to gains near $62.50 Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's retracement slide from the all-time peak, around the $64.65 region.

04:37 NZD/USD declines below 0.5800 on weak Chinese data The NZD/USD pair loses ground to around 0.5780 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar following the downbeat Chinese economic data.

04:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (5%) in November: Actual (4.8%) China Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (5%) in November: Actual (4.8%)

04:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.3%, below expectations (2.9%) in November China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.3%, below expectations (2.9%) in November

04:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below forecasts (-2.3%) in November: Actual (-2.6%) China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below forecasts (-2.3%) in November: Actual (-2.6%)

03:30 China House Price Index down to -2.4% in November from previous -2.2% China House Price Index down to -2.4% in November from previous -2.2%

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0656 vs. 7.0638 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0656 compared to Friday's fix of 7.0638.

02:03 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) remains unchanged at -1.8% in December United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) remains unchanged at -1.8% in December

02:03 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.6% in December from previous -0.5% United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.6% in December from previous -0.5%

01:51 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook in line with expectations (28) in 4Q Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook in line with expectations (28) in 4Q

01:51 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook above expectations (13) in 4Q: Actual (15) Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook above expectations (13) in 4Q: Actual (15)

01:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (35) in 4Q: Actual (34) Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (35) in 4Q: Actual (34)

01:50 Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (12%) in 4Q: Actual (12.6%) Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex above expectations (12%) in 4Q: Actual (12.6%)

01:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (15) in 4Q Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (15) in 4Q

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