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13:43 Japanese Yen underperforms as oil prices gain ground
The Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major currency peers during the European trading session on Thursday, with the USD/JPY pair trading 0.3% higher to near 159.00.
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The Japanese currency faces selling pressure as oil prices have gained ground amid fears over the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran announced on early Wednesday. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.08% 0.30% 0.06% 0.20% -0.19% 0.00% EUR 0.11% 0.04% 0.45% 0.19% 0.31% -0.05% 0.12% GBP 0.08% -0.04% 0.38% 0.14% 0.26% -0.11% 0.08% JPY -0.30% -0.45% -0.38% -0.25% -0.12% -0.51% -0.30% CAD -0.06% -0.19% -0.14% 0.25% 0.15% -0.25% -0.05% AUD -0.20% -0.31% -0.26% 0.12% -0.15% -0.36% -0.18% NZD 0.19% 0.05% 0.11% 0.51% 0.25% 0.36% 0.18% CHF -0.01% -0.12% -0.08% 0.30% 0.05% 0.18% -0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
WTI Oil price is up 2.3% around $93.30 in the European trade amid uncertainty over the US-Iran truce sustainability. Currencies from economies, such as Japan, that rely heavily on imported oil to fulfill their energy needs tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.Investors doubt the credibility of the truce as Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continued their attacks on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. According to a tweet from Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the US has violated the first clause of the 10-point proposal, which states “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”. Qalibaf added that it would be “unreasonable” to continue talks in the current conditions.Meanwhile, both the US and Iran have confirmed that they are sending teams to Pakistan for the first round of talks, which are scheduled over the weekend.During the press time, market sentiment is slightly risk-averse amid uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire’s longevity. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to near 6,770, reflecting weak investors’ risk appetite.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
13:22 WTI Crude Oil returns above $93.00 as concerns about the ceasefire grow
Oil prices have trimmed some of the last two days' losses, and the price of a barrel of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) returned to levels above $93.00 at the time of writing, from lows near $86.00 on Wednesday.
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A fragile ceasefire remains in play, but Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again in retaliation for Israel’s massive attack on Lebanon, which has been considered by Tehran a violation of the ceasefire agreement.The US and Israel affirmed that operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon were not included in the deal, and US President Donald Trump warned of further action if Iran fails to comply with the terms of the deal.Peace talks in PakistanThe peace process, however, goes on as the US and Iran announced that they will send respective delegations for direct talks that will start in Pakistan on Saturday. This gives a glimpse of hope to investors and is keeping Oil prices from accelerating further.Crude Oil prices have declined from March peaks but remain nearly 40% above pre-war levels. Markets remain cautious about a durable peace in an extremely volatile region and are beginning to accept that the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz might take some time, even if a peace deal were signed today.Last weekend, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase their output quotas by 206K barrels per day in May. This initiative, however, will be very difficult to put into practice with Hormuz closed and the limited supply capacity of Gulf countries, as some of their oilfields have suffered severe damage in the five weeks of war. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
13:07 Fed: FOMC minutes reinforce rate cut path risks – UOB
UOB’s Alvin Liew notes that the March FOMC minutes show a divided Federal Reserve but with most officials more worried about US labor markets than inflation, implying a tilt toward future rate cuts.
UOB’s Alvin Liew notes that the March FOMC minutes show a divided Federal Reserve but with most officials more worried about US labor markets than inflation, implying a tilt toward future rate cuts. UOB keeps its forecast for a pause through April, then two cuts in June and 3Q 2026, taking the Fed Funds Target Rate to 3.25% by year-end.Fed split but leaning toward cuts"The minutes showed that Fed officials were mixed over the future direction of interest rates and prioritized to stay “nimble” as they weighed the impacts/uncertainties due to the war in the Middle East.""Many Fed officials continued to view further cuts appropriate if inflation declines in line with their expectations, while some said they delayed the timing of the cuts due to recent inflation readings. Some highlighted there was a strong case for wanting a two-sided description in the policy statement, implying putting the possibility of rate hikes on the table.""The “vast majority” of Fed officials agreed on elevated upside inflation risks and downside employment risks, while the “majority” flagged the situation in Middle East for magnifying those risks. The minutes showed that most participants are concerned that the prolonged conflict could weaken labor markets and prompt rate cuts while many are worried persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated and potentially require rate hikes to anchor expectations.""Staying with our view of a near-term pause before resuming with 2 more cuts in 2026. We continue to expect a period of pause (including the Apr FOMC) followed by two rate reductions in Jun and 3Q 26, with the expectations for weakness in the labour market to emerge in the months ahead.""This would bring the terminal FFTR to 3.25% by year-end 2026, consistent with our view of a gradual normalization path. That said, investors will be on heightened lookout for risk of either further delay in Fed rate cut timing or even increasing difficulty for the Fed to cut in the second half of the year, if energy prices rise substantially on a prolonged basis due to spillover from the Middle East conflict."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
13:02 Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous €-7.457B to €-7.951B in February
Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous €-7.457B to €-7.951B in February
13:00 Ireland HICP (YoY) meets expectations (3.6%) in March
Ireland HICP (YoY) meets expectations (3.6%) in March
13:00 Ireland HICP (MoM) meets expectations (1.8%) in March
Ireland HICP (MoM) meets expectations (1.8%) in March
13:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.6% in March from previous 0.9%
Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.6% in March from previous 0.9%
13:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.6% (March) vs 2.7%
Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.6% (March) vs 2.7%
12:54 Brent: Volatile swings with ceasefire doubts – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight sharp volatility in Brent Oil as Middle East ceasefire doubts resurface. Brent initially slumped over 13% to a four-week low near $95, then rebounded above $96 as concerns about Hormuz shipping and ceasefire durability persisted.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight sharp volatility in Brent Oil as Middle East ceasefire doubts resurface. Brent initially slumped over 13% to a four-week low near $95, then rebounded above $96 as concerns about Hormuz shipping and ceasefire durability persisted. They note more modest declines further out the curve and easing stagflation fears.Ceasefire uncertainty drives sharp reversals"So overall, even with the question marks around a ceasefire, the fact one had been agreed led to a huge wave of optimism, with investors feeling much clearer about the path to a de-escalation. Most directly, the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen led to a big decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-13.29%) down to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl, whilst WTI (-16.41%) fell to $94.41/bbl.""However, with persisting restrictions on Hormuz shipping, the declines were more modest further out the oil curve, with the 6-month Brent future (-2.33%) closing at $81.19/bbl, still above its levels late last week.""As we go to press this morning, oil prices are creeping up again as several questions remain about the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. A few factors have driven that, but it’s pushed Brent crude oil (+2.34%) back up to $96.97/bbl, and it’s also taken the momentum out of the market rally overnight.""So even with all the volatility of recent weeks it was another day of historic moves, and the overnight move for Brent crude this morning (+2.34%) still leaves us well beneath the pre-ceasefire oil price of around $110/bbl."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:46 AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights Australian Dollar (AUD) as the preferred G10 expression of de-escalation and pro-growth after the US-Iran ceasefire.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights Australian Dollar (AUD) as the preferred G10 expression of de-escalation and pro-growth after the US-Iran ceasefire. They note that high-beta energy importers like Swedish Krona (SEK) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) led the snapback, but AUD stands out as a pro-cyclical currency relatively resilient to energy shocks and potentially supported by firmer industrial metals prices if global growth improves.Pro‑cyclical play with growth leverage"In G10 FX, high-beta energy importers such as SEK and NZD led the snapback after being the main underperformers during the conflict.""Our preferred relief trade remains AUD.""It is not only a pro-cyclical currency that is relatively resilient to energy shocks, but it could also benefit from firmer industrial metals prices if further de-escalation lifts global growth as the energy shock fades."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:37 Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hesitates at $74.00 as risk appetite ebbs
Silver (XAG/USD) is looking for direction at $74.00 on Thursday, after pulling back from Wednesday’s highs at $77.65. The precious metal lost its shine as the market turned cautious with the first cracks emerging in the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
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XAG/USD is trading just above the rising channel floor, with 4-hour indicators showing a lack of clear bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat around the 50 line, suggesting a balanced momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally below zero, hinting at a moderate bearish pressure.A confirmation below the mentioned trendline support, now at $73.25, would expose Monday´s low, at $68.20, ahead of the March 23 low, at $61.00. The measured target of a potential Bearish Flag formation is the $52.00 area.On the topside, ithe 50% Fibonacci retracement of the late-March downtrend, at $78.95, has been capping bulls this week. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at $83.15, and the channel top, at $84.50, are the next targets. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
XAG/USD is trading just above the rising channel floor, with 4-hour indicators showing a lack of clear bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat around the 50 line, suggesting a balanced momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally below zero, hinting at a moderate bearish pressure.A confirmation below the mentioned trendline support, now at $73.25, would expose Monday´s low, at $68.20, ahead of the March 23 low, at $61.00. The measured target of a potential Bearish Flag formation is the $52.00 area.On the topside, ithe 50% Fibonacci retracement of the late-March downtrend, at $78.95, has been capping bulls this week. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at $83.15, and the channel top, at $84.50, are the next targets. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $74.11 per troy ounce, down 1.08% from the $74.92 it cost on Wednesday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $74.11 per troy ounce, down 1.08% from the $74.92 it cost on Wednesday.Silver prices have increased by 4.26% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce74.111 Gram2.38The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 63.85 on Thursday, up from 63.01 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:29 DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) notes that interest rate differentials are keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) in a 96.00–100.00 range, even as recent ceasefire optimism faded on compliance doubts.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) notes that interest rate differentials are keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) in a 96.00–100.00 range, even as recent ceasefire optimism faded on compliance doubts. Haddad maintains a structurally bearish US Dollar (USD) view, expecting only one 25 bps Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by year-end as February US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data are unlikely to alter rate expectations.DXY capped by rate differentials"Brent crude oil prices are up 8% after dropping to near a one month low at $90.40 a barrel yesterday. The equity and bond market rally stalled, while the DXY (USD index) rebounded following a test of its 200-day moving average yesterday.""Bottom line: interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies still anchors the DXY index within a 96.00-100.00 range. Structurally, we maintain our long-held bearish USD view because of fading confidence in US trade and security policy, worsening US fiscal credibility, and the ongoing politicization of the Fed.""Today, the February PCE will capture the pre-shock US inflation and consumer spending backdrop (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). As such, the data is unlikely to shift the dial on Fed funds rate expectations, which currently implies nearly even odds of a 25bps cut over the next twelve months.""Headline PCE is seen at 2.8% y/y for a second straight month, core PCE is expected to dip 0.1pts to 3.0% y/y, and real personal spending is forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% in January. For reference, at its March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC’s median 2026 projection for both headline and core PCE stood at 2.7%.""The FOMC March 17-18 meeting minutes underscored the two-sided policy risks from a protracted conflict in the Middle East. “Most” participants raised the concern that a lengthy war could warrant additional rate cuts to support the labor market, while “many” would favor rate increases to help bring inflation down to the 2% target. Provided the energy shock continues to fade, we expect the Fed to deliver one 25bps cut by year-end, in line with the FOMC’s projection."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:13 Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea
Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen highlights that Eurozone inflation has risen with higher energy prices but remains well below 2022 levels. He stresses that strong household savings, low unemployment and ongoing investment in infrastructure and defense should cushion growth.
Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen highlights that Eurozone inflation has risen with higher energy prices but remains well below 2022 levels. He stresses that strong household savings, low unemployment and ongoing investment in infrastructure and defense should cushion growth. Nonetheless, falling confidence indicators and tighter financial conditions pose downside risks if the conflict escalates.Inflation rises but growth shock limited"In March, inflation in the eurozone thus came out at 2.5%. This was a significant increase from the month before, when it was at 1.9%, but still far below the level in 2022, when oil prices were even higher than today, and when not least the price of natural gas went completely wild.""At that time, it peaked for a short period just under 350 euros per MWh, and the EU had to introduce a maximum price of 180 euros per MWh in almost panic mode. In comparison, the natural gas price in Europe is currently at 'only' about 50 euros per MWh.""This is high and hits European companies and households, but not necessarily to an extent that leads to a deep economic downturn or calls for fiscal easing.""And certainly not when it is taken into account that household savings are at record highs, unemployment is low, and billions of euros are already being pumped into infrastructure projects and not least defense.""But of course there is always a risk that things will go worse than expected, and the economies also risk being hit by developments in the financial markets, where the war has also left its mark in the form of falling stock prices and rising interest rates."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:13 AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen
AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 111.70 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens, with oil prices rebounding amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire.
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The currency cross gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens, with oil prices rebounding amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. It is worth noting that Japan remains highly sensitive to Middle East oil supply dynamics.The JPY also faces pressure as markets increasingly expect fiscal policy to turn more expansionary if the Middle East situation becomes prolonged, according to Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that short- and medium-term interest rates remain clearly negative, with accommodative financial conditions supporting a moderate rise in capital expenditure, Reuters reported.However, the upside in the AUD/JPY cross may be capped as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles amid fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism, with reports indicating the 10-point framework still lacks full commitment from both sides, leaving the agreement fragile and incomplete.The Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has pushed energy prices higher and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may maintain tighter policy for longer.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already lifted rates by 50 basis points to 4.10% in response to persistently elevated inflation. Markets are now pricing in another rate hike in May, with rates projected to reach 4.61% by the end of the year. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
11:59 Greece Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.8% in February from previous 5.3%
Greece Industrial Production (YoY) down to 1.8% in February from previous 5.3%
11:57 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction declined to 3.435% from previous 3.476%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction declined to 3.435% from previous 3.476%
11:57 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.404% to 2.734%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.404% to 2.734%
11:51 Oil: Ceasefire fragility tempers price reaction – Rabobank
Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz notes that crude Oil’s initial sharp drop on the Iran ceasefire headlines has been only partially reversed, despite renewed tensions and the Strait of Hormuz re-closing.
Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz notes that crude Oil’s initial sharp drop on the Iran ceasefire headlines has been only partially reversed, despite renewed tensions and the Strait of Hormuz re-closing. She highlights that a temporarily lower crude level around $94–96/bbl could cushion future price spikes if hostilities resume, suggesting markets may be factoring in a tactical US strategy.Crude reacts modestly to Hormuz closure"Global macro markets were a little more sensitive to (war) hawkish headlines""But the market that (surprisingly) barely moved yesterday was crude oil. Crude one month futures fell more than $16 to $94/bbl after the news of a ceasefire first broke, but the Strait reclosing and the fragility of the ceasefire exposed resulted in minimal price action, with crude closing at around $96/bbl.""A ceasefire announcement that is well-received by the market could soothe markets and inflationary expectations, as well as depress the price of oil—which it has done for the time being. Should the Trump Administration choose to ramp up offensive measures in two weeks (or even today), it’s possible that the jump in prices may be somewhat mitigated, as we’re bouncing off of a “suppressed” crude level of $94/bbl, as opposed to the $110/bbl level we were at earlier in the week.""While the moving parts here are extremely complex and there is likely much more at play here than just “because markets,” the markets angle is still something to think about."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:48 Spain 5-y Bond Auction up to 3.476% from previous 2.934%
Spain 5-y Bond Auction up to 3.476% from previous 2.934%
11:43 Pound Sterling ticks lower as investors worry sustainability of Iran ceasefire
The Pound Sterling edges lower against its major currency peers on Thursday, trading subduedly around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling edges down against its major peers amid doubts over the credibility of the US-Iran ceasefire.Israeli army kills nephew of Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem.Investors seek fresh cues for BoE’s monetary policy outlook.The Pound Sterling edges lower against its major currency peers on Thursday, trading subduedly around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session. The British currency faces mild selling pressure as market sentiment turns slightly risk-averse amid uncertainty over the sustainability of the ceasefire announcement in the Middle East on Wednesday.S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to near 6,770 in the European trade, reflecting a cautious market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is slightly higher to near 99.10.Market participants turn cautious over the longevity of the two-week US-Iran truce due to Israel’s continued attacks on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. According to a Reuters report, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has eliminated Ali Yusuf Harshi, the personal secretary and nephew of Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem.Earlier, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, also criticized the US for violating the first clause of the 10-point proposal, through a tweet on X, which states “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.Meanwhile, both the US and Iran have confirmed that they are sending teams to Pakistan for the first round of negotiations over the 10-point peace proposal.On the domestic front, investors seek fresh cues about the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy outlook, as anchoring global inflation expectations due to optimism on the Iran war would force traders to pare bets supporting interest rate hikes in the near term.Investors became confident of the BoE tightening monetary conditions in upcoming policy meetings, as higher energy prices due to the Middle East war had prompted inflation expectations. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:36 EUR/PLN: Zloty recovery with steady NBP – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% for an extended period, with markets already pricing out most further tightening.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% for an extended period, with markets already pricing out most further tightening. While EUR/PLN has erased about half its conflict‑related rise, ING sees further Polish Zloty (PLN) gains if risk sentiment holds and the US‑Iran ceasefire continues, though a return to pre‑conflict levels below 4.220 will likely be slower.Stable rates and geopolitics guide Zloty"The National Bank of Poland is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% today. This is a meeting without a new forecast and the first meeting after the March rate cut. Some MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] members indicated before the meeting that rates will likely remain unchanged for a longer period of time and some mentioned that the March cut was the last. Attention will be on the Governor's press conference today, which will likely determine the central bank's further direction.""The market has priced out about one and a half rate hikes after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement and remains priced at less than 20bp at the one-year horizon. This is the lowest in the CEE region and rates pricing is quickly returning to normal. If the central bank confirms its tendency to wait longer and do nothing today and, at the same time, the geopolitical situation stabilises further, we should see some pressure on the remaining rate hike pricing, although the market will probably keep some optionality here. On the other hand, the government has aggressively entered the fuel market, which should keep inflation under control and stay roughly within the central bank's tolerance band. Our forecast is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period.""EUR/PLN saw its biggest one-day fall in a year yesterday, erasing roughly half of the move up from pre-conflict levels. Still, EUR/PLN and the rest of the region are mainly driven by geopolitical headlines, and today's NBP meeting will have little impact. However, assuming that the risk-on sentiment continues and the US-Iran ceasefire holds, the zloty has further potential to erase previous losses, although reaching pre-conflict levels below 4.220 will take longer."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:27 US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up to 99.00 with Iran’s ceasefire into question
The US Dollar (USD) has trimmed some losses to consolidate right above the 99.00 level on Thursday, after bouncing from lows at 98.50 on Wednesday. The safe-haven US Dollar has picked up as investors come to terms with the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran.
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The peace process nevertheless remains alive, as Washington and Tehran announced that they will send delegations to start direct talks in Pakistan on Saturday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with more “action” if they fail to comply with the ceasefire deal.Fed minutes show a hawkish tweakOn Wednesday, the minutes of March’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting showed a balanced stance. Further rate cuts are still on the table, but some voices raised the possibility of monetary tightening for the first time since the central bank started its monetary easing cycle in August 2024.Later on Thursday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to show fairly steady price pressures in February, which is likely to be ignored by the market as it predates the war in Iran.
The focus this week will be on the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which will provide the first insight into the inflationary impact stemming from the war. Headline inflation is expected to have accelerated to a 3.3% yearly rate, its highest level in nearly two years, with the core CPI, stripped out of the costs of food and energy, increasing to a 2.7% year-on-year rate, from 2.5% in February. Economic Indicator Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.8% Previous: 2.8% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis in Economic Indicator Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3% Previous: 3.1% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
The peace process nevertheless remains alive, as Washington and Tehran announced that they will send delegations to start direct talks in Pakistan on Saturday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with more “action” if they fail to comply with the ceasefire deal.Fed minutes show a hawkish tweakOn Wednesday, the minutes of March’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting showed a balanced stance. Further rate cuts are still on the table, but some voices raised the possibility of monetary tightening for the first time since the central bank started its monetary easing cycle in August 2024.Later on Thursday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to show fairly steady price pressures in February, which is likely to be ignored by the market as it predates the war in Iran.
The focus this week will be on the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which will provide the first insight into the inflationary impact stemming from the war. Headline inflation is expected to have accelerated to a 3.3% yearly rate, its highest level in nearly two years, with the core CPI, stripped out of the costs of food and energy, increasing to a 2.7% year-on-year rate, from 2.5% in February. Economic Indicator Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.8% Previous: 2.8% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis in Economic Indicator Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3% Previous: 3.1% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
11:16 SEK: Riksbank seen steady despite soft CPI – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation does not give the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank a reason to change its stance.
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation does not give the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank a reason to change its stance. The bank already projects inflation below target and is likely to look through temporary downside surprises, given offsetting Oil price risks. She adds that the Swedish Krona (SEK) will remain driven mainly by global risk sentiment rather than shifting rate expectations for now.Soft inflation but policy unchanged"The preliminary Swedish consumer price index data for March came in below expectations, falling to 1.6% year-on-year (expected: 2.2%) and to 1.1% for core inflation (expected: 1.5%) – partly due to base effects and the appreciation of the krona last year.""In its forecasts, the Riksbank anticipates a decline well below the target for both rates anyway, even if March is still a little too early for that.""And even if concerns were to arise that the decline in inflation rates might be too rapid and too sharp compared to their own forecasts (partly due to the planned VAT cut next month), the risk of rising prices caused by the oil price shock is likely to counteract these concerns.""The Riksbank can therefore, for the time being, look forward to the expected price rises resulting from the oil price shock with confidence, but will of course remain vigilant – as emphasised at its March meeting – depending on how the conflict ultimately unfolds following the ceasefire.""Therefore, in my opinion, there is no reason to expect a change in the Riksbank’s stance for the time being.""The Swedish krona remains, for the time being, at the mercy of market risk aversion, as demonstrated by the reaction following the announcement of the ceasefire with Iran; interest rate expectations currently play a (still) subordinate role."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:13 Dow Jones futures slip due to fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism
Dow Jones futures fall 0.36% to near 47,950 during European hours on Thursday, ahead of the regular opening in the United States (US). Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also lose 0.38% and 0.37% to near 6,800 and 25,000, respectively, at the time of writing.
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Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also lose 0.38% and 0.37% to near 6,800 and 25,000, respectively, at the time of writing.US stock futures come under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.The Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer. US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March Meeting Minutes suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Traders will likely observe the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due on Friday.Oil prices recovered modestly on renewed supply concerns after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States.In regular US trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones surged 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.8% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire aimed at facilitating negotiations toward a potential resolution to the conflict. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
10:56 GBP/USD: Upside risk hinges on 1.3480 close – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.3480 before retreating to the mid‑1.33s, suggesting a near‑term consolidation band between 1.3350 and 1.3450.
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.3480 before retreating to the mid‑1.33s, suggesting a near‑term consolidation band between 1.3350 and 1.3450. Over the next one to three weeks, upside risks remain in place, but a sustained move toward 1.3520 requires a daily close above 1.3480 while 1.3280 holds as strong support.Pound needs confirmation above resistance"GBP appears to have moved into a consolidation phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3350 and 1.3450.""The upside risk remains intact, but GBP must close above 1.3480 before a move to 1.3520 can be expected. The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3480 will remain intact as long as 1.3280 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) continues to hold.""A weekly close below the key support at 1.3300 could trigger a decline toward the major support zone at 1.2945/1.3010. (dated 06 Mar 2026, 1.3310)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:46 Australian Dollar faces pressure as Iran truce uncertainty revives risk-off impulse slightly
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, is down 0.2% to near 0.7030 vs. the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar underperforms as market sentiment turns slightly cautious amid uncertainty over the US-Iran truce.Iran criticizes the US for violating the terms of the 10-point peace proposal.The RBA is expected to raise interest rates again in May.The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, is down 0.2% to near 0.7030 vs. the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The antipodean faces selling pressure as market sentiment turns slightly risk-averse amid uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran announced on early Wednesday. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% 0.00% 0.21% 0.06% 0.18% -0.25% -0.08% EUR -0.02% 0.00% 0.20% 0.07% 0.16% -0.24% -0.09% GBP -0.00% -0.00% 0.19% 0.05% 0.15% -0.25% -0.09% JPY -0.21% -0.20% -0.19% -0.14% -0.03% -0.46% -0.28% CAD -0.06% -0.07% -0.05% 0.14% 0.12% -0.30% -0.14% AUD -0.18% -0.16% -0.15% 0.03% -0.12% -0.39% -0.23% NZD 0.25% 0.24% 0.25% 0.46% 0.30% 0.39% 0.16% CHF 0.08% 0.09% 0.09% 0.28% 0.14% 0.23% -0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
At press time, S&P 500 futures have posted some losses, trading 0.2% down to near 6,770. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises 0.1% to near 99.10.The uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire has stemmed from continued attacks from the Israeli regime on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, criticizes the US for violating the first clause of the 10-point proposal, which states “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.Meanwhile, both the US and Iran have announced that they are sending teams to Pakistan for the first round of talks regarding the 10-point peace proposal, which is scheduled to start on Saturday.On the monetary policy front, traders see a 60% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) again in the May policy meeting, according to a Reuters report. Hawkish RBA bets are majorly driven by high inflationary pressures in Australia, which were elevated even before the energy crisis-driven inflation globally.In the US, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
10:46 EUR/NOK: Norges Bank risk for Krone – BNY
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position.
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position. With Eurozone stagflation concerns contrasting Norway’s positive terms-of-trade shock, he argues that EUR is now more sensitive to any improvement in sentiment, while Norwegian Krone (NOK) strength could stall if energy prices peak and Norges Bank resumes FX purchases.Euro underheld as NOK remains crowded"Assuming the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, the “easiest” FX flows to realize would be mean reversion of the “extreme” moves since the beginning of the conflict. On the outflow side, emerging market currencies facing balance of payments stress and developed market currencies exposed to stagflation were hit hardest. At the other end, energy- and commodity-linked currencies with clear policy space were bid.""The EUR and NOK currently occupy both ends of the spectrum and perfectly encapsulate this view: the Eurozone is seen as struggling with stagflation as energy costs bite, while Norway will see a strongly positive terms-of-trade shock, and Norges Bank has largely pre-committed to a hike – the only developed central bank in Europe to do so.""The EUR remains the most affected by the unwind of the ‘hedge the dollar’ theme exhibited before the conflict. The process is now fully complete, to the extent that the EUR is now net underheld on an aggregate basis.""From a domestic asset allocation perspective, given the year-to-date performance of U.S. equities remains manageable, we can only surmise that forward buying of EUR for hedging purposes has been taken off in size – which is striking given rate expectations have moved in a direction which would normally necessitate the opposite behavior. Regardless, now that the EUR is net underheld, the bar for reversing flows is now much lower.""In contrast, NOK’s gains may halt for now if energy prices peak. Even if energy prices remain elevated, we believe receipts will be large enough to meet government financing requirements such that the Norges Bank may shift toward FX purchases again, representing an additional layer of resistance against positive NOK flows, and NOK holdings remain by far the strongest among European currencies."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:44 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 185.00 toward upper ascending channel boundary
EUR/JPY rebounds after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, signaling a bullish bias.
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10:43 Forex Today: Risk rally loses steam amid shaky US-Iran ceasefire
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 9:
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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 9:The risk rally that started after the United States (US) and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire has lost its steam, with market adopting a cautious stance early Thursday. In the second half of the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for February will be featured in the US economic calendar. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the final revision to the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.17% -1.49% -0.46% -0.60% -2.06% -2.40% -1.17% EUR 1.17% -0.32% 0.72% 0.58% -0.89% -1.24% -0.01% GBP 1.49% 0.32% 0.96% 0.89% -0.58% -0.92% 0.32% JPY 0.46% -0.72% -0.96% -0.15% -1.59% -1.92% -0.73% CAD 0.60% -0.58% -0.89% 0.15% -1.45% -1.77% -0.57% AUD 2.06% 0.89% 0.58% 1.59% 1.45% -0.35% 0.90% NZD 2.40% 1.24% 0.92% 1.92% 1.77% 0.35% 1.25% CHF 1.17% 0.01% -0.32% 0.73% 0.57% -0.90% -1.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Wall Street's main indexes registered impressive gains midweek as markets reacted to the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, latest headlines from the region suggest that there is renewed uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the ceasefire. Reflecting the negative shift seen in risk sentiment, US stock index futures lose about 0.3% on the day. Iranian officials argued that Israel's ongoing aggression against Lebanon is a violation of the ceasefire agreement and noted that it would be "unreasonable" to proceed with the negotiations to reach a permanent peace deal with the US. Moreover, Iran's Fars News Agency reported late Wednesday that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have been stopped after Israel breached the ceasefire, per Reuters. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump said that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel will remain in place in, and around, Iran until a real agreement reached and it's fully complied with, warning that there will be a stronger military response if they fail to do so.The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers are in a wait-and-see mode but they acknowledge that risks are becoming more balanced. While some policymakers argued that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a softening in labor market conditions, others noted that a persistent increase in oil prices heightens the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. The US Dollar (USD) Index fell to its weakest level in nearly a month near 98.50 on Wednesday but managed to erase a portion of its daily losses during the American trading hours. Early Thursday, the USD Index clings to moderate gains above 99.00. Crude Oil prices rebound following Wednesday's sharp decline. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading near $92.50, rising more than 1% on the day.Gold (XAU/USD) climbed above $4,850 but reversed its direction to end the day marginally lower on Wednesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $4,700 in the European morning on Thursday.EUR/USD erased a portion of its daily gains in the American session but still rose more than 0.5% on Wednesday. The pair struggles to hold its ground early Thursday and fluctuates at around 1.1650.GBP/USD benefited from the USD weakness and closed in positive territory for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair moves sideways slightly below 1.3400 to start the European session.USD/JPY stages a rebound and ries toward 159.00 after losing more than 0.6% on Wednesday. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
10:34 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound holds gains with 213.30 high in sight
The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against a weak Japanese Yen (JPY), extending its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with pullbacks finding support in the lower 212.00s and March highs in the 213.30 area still on the bulls’ radar.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY maintains its near-term bullish bias with downside attempts capped at 212.30.Bulls remain focused on the March highs in the 213.30 area.Concerns about the impact of Oil prices on the Japanese economy are weighing on Yen rallies.The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against a weak Japanese Yen (JPY), extending its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with pullbacks finding support in the lower 212.00s and March highs in the 213.30 area still on the bulls’ radar.The GBP has shown greater resilience than the Yen to the war in Iran. Investors’ concerns about the economic consequences of the Oil shock in major crude importers, such as Japan, have been a significant headwind to any JPY rally since the war began.The strong Japanese Labour Cash Earnings data witnessed earlier this week boosted speculation of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This posibility was endorsed by former board member Seiji Adachi on Tuesday, and the Yen bounced up from lows on Wednesday, but the rally was short-lived.
Technical AnalysisGBP/JPY maintains its near-term bullish bias intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in positive territory after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that upside momentum is present but not yet exhausted.Bulls were halted on Wednesday at 213.15, a few pips below the March top of 213.31. Further up, the next target would be the early February high, in the 214.00 area.Support is at Wednesday's low, near 212.20, ahead of the April 1 high, at 211.44, and the April 2 and 5 lows around 210.50. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.03% 0.24% 0.09% 0.20% -0.18% -0.05% EUR -0.04% 0.02% 0.20% 0.08% 0.16% -0.19% -0.07% GBP -0.03% -0.02% 0.19% 0.06% 0.15% -0.21% -0.08% JPY -0.24% -0.20% -0.19% -0.15% -0.04% -0.43% -0.28% CAD -0.09% -0.08% -0.06% 0.15% 0.12% -0.27% -0.14% AUD -0.20% -0.16% -0.15% 0.04% -0.12% -0.35% -0.23% NZD 0.18% 0.19% 0.21% 0.43% 0.27% 0.35% 0.12% CHF 0.05% 0.07% 0.08% 0.28% 0.14% 0.23% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical AnalysisGBP/JPY maintains its near-term bullish bias intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in positive territory after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that upside momentum is present but not yet exhausted.Bulls were halted on Wednesday at 213.15, a few pips below the March top of 213.31. Further up, the next target would be the early February high, in the 214.00 area.Support is at Wednesday's low, near 212.20, ahead of the April 1 high, at 211.44, and the April 2 and 5 lows around 210.50. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.03% 0.24% 0.09% 0.20% -0.18% -0.05% EUR -0.04% 0.02% 0.20% 0.08% 0.16% -0.19% -0.07% GBP -0.03% -0.02% 0.19% 0.06% 0.15% -0.21% -0.08% JPY -0.24% -0.20% -0.19% -0.15% -0.04% -0.43% -0.28% CAD -0.09% -0.08% -0.06% 0.15% 0.12% -0.27% -0.14% AUD -0.20% -0.16% -0.15% 0.04% -0.12% -0.35% -0.23% NZD 0.18% 0.19% 0.21% 0.43% 0.27% 0.35% 0.12% CHF 0.05% 0.07% 0.08% 0.28% 0.14% 0.23% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
10:30 NZD/USD holds gains for fourth day; eyes 200-day SMA near 0.5850 ahead of US data
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's late pullback from over a two-week high and turns positive for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.
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Spot prices climb to the 0.5835-0.5840 region during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to conquer a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) amid mixed fundamental cues.Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed policymakers still expect one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027. This keeps a lid on the attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from a one-month low set the previous day and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. That said, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might continue to underpin the USD's reserve currency status and cap gains for the perceived riskier Kiwi.Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails, suggesting that escalation risks remain on the table and favor the USD bulls.Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of US macro data – the final Q4 GDP print, along with the crucial Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Apart from this, the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Friday, will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's policy outlook. Hence, a sustained move above the 200-day SMA pivotal barrier is needed to back the case for any further appreciation for the NZD/USD pair. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.7% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.
10:28 Oil: Ceasefire confusion keeps supply risks elevated – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that Brent crude dropped sharply on the initial US-Iran ceasefire headlines but remains sensitive to Middle East supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, with Iran only indicating a possible reopening later this week.
Danske Research Team notes that Brent crude dropped sharply on the initial US-Iran ceasefire headlines but remains sensitive to Middle East supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, with Iran only indicating a possible reopening later this week. The analysts highlight that reported infrastructure damage looks manageable so far, yet markets remain focused on Oil flows.Brent pares losses as risks linger"Global markets breathed a sigh of relief as Brent crude fell 14% to USD 95/bbl and equities surged to one-month highs following President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire late Tuesday.""The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, though Iran has indicated it could reopen later this week subject to further agreements.""Brent futures also edged up slightly to USD 97/bbl.""The oil market has reacted with relative calm, suggesting that reported damages may be manageable for now.""Markets are closely watching for signs of increased traffic through the strait in the coming days."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:12 EUR/USD: Sticky ECB pricing supports Euro – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that while investors currently favour higher‑beta currencies, European Central Bank (ECB) pricing can still underpin the Euro (EUR).
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that while investors currently favour higher‑beta currencies, European Central Bank (ECB) pricing can still underpin the Euro (EUR). Markets continue to discount around 58bp of tightening despite lower energy prices, and ING doubts modest further declines in Oil alone will push expectations below 50bp, supporting EUR/USD back towards the 1.1700–1.1730 area rather than a rapid jump to 1.1800.ECB rate expectations backstop EUR"This is not an environment for outright EUR strength given investors’ preference for higher‑beta currencies. Still, European Central Bank pricing could give the euro more durable support than elsewhere. While falling energy prices have driven a dovish repricing in the EUR swap curve, markets continue to discount around 58bp of tightening by year‑end.""We doubt that a modest further decline in energy prices alone would be enough to push ECB pricing below 50bp. Rate cycles at the ECB are typically framed around two 25bp moves or nothing at all, meaning a material dovish shift would likely require explicit guidance rather than just lower oil prices.""With no permanent ceasefire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the ECB is unlikely to rush towards a decisively dovish narrative. That could prompt the euro to outperform other currencies (like USD) where pricing appears to be more flexible on the dovish side.""A jump to 1.1800 seems a bit premature given lingering volatility in the Gulf, but sticky ECB hawkish bets favour a return to the 1.1700-1.1730 area in EUR/USD."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:03 USD/INR: Range risks and oil sensitivity – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan expects USD/INR to remain range-bound, projecting a base-case trading band between 94.00 and 95.00 over time, with a wider 97.00–98.00 range in a risk scenario of rising Oil prices.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan expects USD/INR to remain range-bound, projecting a base-case trading band between 94.00 and 95.00 over time, with a wider 97.00–98.00 range in a risk scenario of rising Oil prices. He notes the Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep rates on hold, with INR yields staying sticky due to domestic and external risks.RBI stance and INR range projections"In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate on hold while keeping a neutral stance in what was a unanimous vote, as it signalled a focus on keeping rupee stability over supporting growth. Governor Malhotra highlighted upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from the Iran conflict and global oil prices, even as he signalled overall confidence in the Indian economy and macro buffers in withstanding these external shocks. The RBI is projecting some modest slowdown in growth with GDP at 6.9% and inflation at 4.6% for FY2026/27, with an assumption of crude oil at US$85/bbl average.""On the recent RBI FX measures, Governor Malhotra described RBI’s FX measures as temporary, reaffirmed commitment to support Rupee internationalization over the medium-term, while framed the measures as a way to weed out short-term speculation and pressure that had been building up on one-way INR depreciation bets.""In our base-case we think USD/INR can trade between the 94.00 to 95.00 range over time. In a risk case of oil prices resuming its rise, we think USD/INR may trade closer to the 97.00 to 98.00 range. While we see RBI keeping rates on hold for now, the meaningful risk of second round effects on food prices, potential fiscal slippages and weakness in capital inflows should result in a bias for overall INR interest rate yield structure to remain sticky moving forward."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:00 Austria Trade Balance increased to €-66.7M in January from previous €-1301M
Austria Trade Balance increased to €-66.7M in January from previous €-1301M
10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) below forecasts (1.5%) in February: Actual (-1.1%)
Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) below forecasts (1.5%) in February: Actual (-1.1%)
09:57 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds 20-day EMA in countdown to US-Iran talks
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally higher around 1.3850 during the European trading session on Thursday.
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The Loonie pair gains temporary ground after a three-day losing streak as the US Dollar (USD) attracts slight bids, with investors starting to doubt the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran announced on early Wednesday.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.10.The uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire credibility has stemmed due to continuous attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. In response, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has alleged the US for violating three clauses of the 10-point peace proposal.Meanwhile, Iran has confirmed sending a team to Pakistan on late Thursday for the first round of talks with the US. On the macro front, investors await the Canadian employment data for March, which will be released on Friday.USD/CAD technical analysisUSD/CAD edges up to near 1.3850 in Thursday's European trade. The pair maintains a modest bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3827, keeping the latest upswing intact despite the recent pullback from last week’s highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 57 leans slightly to the bullish side without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting the advance could extend while price respects nearby dynamic support.On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3827, where a break would hint at a deeper corrective phase toward the March 3 high of 1.3750. As long as buyers defend this moving average, the broader constructive structure is likely to persist, leaving scope for fresh attempts to retest recent highs in the 1.3950 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Net Change in Employment The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 15K Previous: -83.9K Source: Statistics Canada Why it matters to traders? Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.
09:55 EUR/GBP posts modest gains above 0.8700 despite weak German Industrial Production data
The EUR/GBP cross posts modest gains near 0.8710 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) remains firm despite the downbeat German Industrial Production report.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:47 AUD/USD: Overdone rally shifts into range phase – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that AUD/USD’s sharp advance has stalled below 0.7100, with price action now seen as part of a consolidation band between 0.7000 and 0.7080.
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that AUD/USD’s sharp advance has stalled below 0.7100, with price action now seen as part of a consolidation band between 0.7000 and 0.7080. Over the coming weeks they still allow for a test of 0.7135, provided the pair holds above 0.6970, even as the broader 1–3 month technical picture continues to point to a lower AUD/USD.Short term consolidation after sharp gains"The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.7000 and 0.7080.""We indicated the following yesterday (08 Apr, spot at 0.7075) "While the sharp rally after NY close suggests AUD could continue to rise, the rapid advance appears overdone. That said, there is room for AUD to test 0.7135. To keep the momentum going, AUD must hold above 0.6970. Near-term 0.7000 is already a firm support”. We continue to hold the same view.""The overall technical picture points to a lower AUD/USD; a breach of the 0.6850/0.6870 support zone could trigger a decline toward 0.6765. (dated 27 Mar 2026, 0.6885)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:42 EUR/USD hesitates at 1.1660 with Iran’s ceasefire on tenterhooks
The (EUR) is trading practically flat, right above 1.1660 against the US Dollar at Thursday’s European session opening. The pair pùlled back from Wednesday’s highs, at 1.1721, as Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz following massive Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
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The pair pùlled back from Wednesday’s highs, at 1.1721, as Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz following massive Israeli attacks on Lebanon.The Iranian authorities complained about violations of the ceasefire proposal while the US and Israel affirm that Lebanon is not part of the agreement, and US President Donald Trump threatened action if Tehran fails to comply with the deal. Despite the tensions, both parties have announced that they will send delegations for direct talks in Pakistan, which keeps peace hopes alive for now.The Fed turns more hawkishApart from that, a moderate hawkish tilt on the minutes of March’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has contributed to the US Dollar’s rebound. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers acknowledged that progress towards the 2% inflation target will be longer than previously thought, and some committee members considered that higher interest rates might be appropriate if inflation remains above target levels.Later on Thursday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, but above all, Friday’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which refers to March, will reveal the inflationary impact of the Iran war, and might give further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy path.In Europe, German Industrial Production figures revealed that factory output declined against expectations in February, while the trade surplus contracted less than expected, with imports and exports increasing beyond forecasts. The impact of these figures on the Euro has been marginal.Technical Analysis: The near-term bias remains bullish
EUR/USD maintains a constructive near-term bias, despite the recent pullback, as it holds most of the gains taken over the previous three days.The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive, which together suggest that upward momentum is still in play.On the topside, the area between Wednesday's high at 1.1721 and the February 19 low near 1.1740 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the late-February highs, around 1.1830. Bears remain capped above previous highs, in the 1.1630-1.1640 area, so far closing the path towards the weekly lows, at 1.1505.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.3% Consensus: 0.9% Previous: -0.5% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany Economic Indicator Trade Balance s.a. The Trade Balance released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: €19.8B Consensus: €18.5B Previous: €21.2B Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
EUR/USD maintains a constructive near-term bias, despite the recent pullback, as it holds most of the gains taken over the previous three days.The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive, which together suggest that upward momentum is still in play.On the topside, the area between Wednesday's high at 1.1721 and the February 19 low near 1.1740 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the late-February highs, around 1.1830. Bears remain capped above previous highs, in the 1.1630-1.1640 area, so far closing the path towards the weekly lows, at 1.1505.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.3% Consensus: 0.9% Previous: -0.5% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany Economic Indicator Trade Balance s.a. The Trade Balance released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 09, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: €19.8B Consensus: €18.5B Previous: €21.2B Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
09:35 USD: Focus on Inflation and Fed tensions risk – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the Iran ceasefire is fragile and warns against expecting Oil prices to quickly return to pre-war levels. She notes that US inflation data, including CPI and the PCE index, are likely to reflect higher energy costs over time.
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the Iran ceasefire is fragile and warns against expecting Oil prices to quickly return to pre-war levels. She notes that US inflation data, including CPI and the PCE index, are likely to reflect higher energy costs over time. Rising prices could revive political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with renewed verbal attacks from President Trump potentially weighing on the Dollar.Geopolitics, inflation and Fed tensions"In my view, the major issue of “inflation, inflation expectations and central bank responses” could come back into sharper focus, regardless of the fact that tensions on the oil markets are easing.""Even if the US price figures for March are unlikely to reflect the full extent of the situation, they do provide an initial indication of how strongly the Middle East conflict could be felt in US prices.""The March inflation rate, due to be published tomorrow, is likely to reflect the rise in petrol prices – a jump to well over 3% year-on-year is expected here.""The effects are likely to be less pronounced in the broader PCE index (personal consumption expenditure on goods and services), which is due to be announced today. However, as in recent months, this index has already been well above the Fed’s 2% target (2.8%).""It is likely only a matter of time before the PCE index also rises; after all, oil prices currently remain 50% above pre-crisis levels, and the impact on prices of goods and services is only slowly becoming apparent.""With this week’s inflation data, it may still be too early for it. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that the theme of “calls for interest rate cuts and verbal attacks on the Fed” could return to the US President’s agenda.""If Trump turns his attention back to this front and the conflict with the Fed flares up again, the dollar could suffer accordingly."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:13 Equities: Relief rally faces ceasefire uncertainty – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team highlights a sharp global equities rally after the Iran ceasefire headlines, with benchmarks now just about 2% below record highs. Cyclicals and semiconductors led gains, while energy and minimum volatility lagged.
Danske Research Team highlights a sharp global equities rally after the Iran ceasefire headlines, with benchmarks now just about 2% below record highs. Cyclicals and semiconductors led gains, while energy and minimum volatility lagged. However, Asian markets and Western futures are already giving back part of the move as doubts over the ceasefire’s evolution re-emerge.Cyclical rebound pauses after strong surge"Global equities rallied sharply yesterday in the wake of the Iran ceasefire headlines, leaving global benchmarks just ~2% below all-time highs and back in positive territory year-to-date.""Unsurprisingly, the move was characterized by a strong cyclical rotation, while energy stood out as the clear underperformer.""At the same time, minimum volatility significantly lagged; in fact, min vol is now the worst-performing factor since our latest strategy report in early March, standing in stark contrast to the heavy flow of geopolitical risk over the past month.""Notably, the rebound dynamics show a clear reversal pattern: the strongest moves were seen in Asia and Europe, and at industry level, semiconductors outperformed energy by ~15% yesterday alone. While US moves were more muted, it is worth noting that yesterday marked the sixth consecutive positive session for the S&P 500. ""This morning, with uncertainties around how the ceasefire will evolve, Asian equities are giving back some of the gains. European and US futures are also modestly lower."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:02 German Industrial Production declines 0.3% MoM in February vs. 0.9% expected
Germany’s industrial sector activity fell sharply in February, the latest data published by Destatis showed on Thursday.
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Germany’s industrial sector activity fell sharply in February, the latest data published by Destatis showed on Thursday.Industrial Output, in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse, declined by 0.3% over the month in February, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared with the expected 0.9% rise and 0% recorded in January (revised from -0.5%).Annually, the German Industrial Production came in at 0% in the same period, following January’s revised a 0.9% decrease.EUR/USD reaction to the German Industrial Production dataAt the press time, the EUR/USD pair remains weak near 1.1660, down 0.02% on the day. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:01 Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) up to 0% in February from previous -1.2%
Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) up to 0% in February from previous -1.2%
09:00 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $75.835B to $73.187B in March
South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $75.835B to $73.187B in March
09:00 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $81.06B to $77.76B in March
South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve fell from previous $81.06B to $77.76B in March
09:00 Germany Trade Balance s.a. came in at €19.8B, above expectations (€18.5B) in February
Germany Trade Balance s.a. came in at €19.8B, above expectations (€18.5B) in February
09:00 Germany Imports (MoM) came in at 4.7%, above expectations (4%) in February
Germany Imports (MoM) came in at 4.7%, above expectations (4%) in February
09:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in February: Actual (-0.3%)
Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in February: Actual (-0.3%)
09:00 Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in February: Actual (3.6%)
Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in February: Actual (3.6%)
08:53 Iran confirms sending team to Pakistan for negotiations with US
Iranian ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam confirms, through a tweet on X during early European trading hours on Thursday, that a team is scheduled to visit Pakistan at night for the first round of talks on the 10-point proposal plan with the United States (US).
Iranian ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam confirms, through a tweet on X during early European trading hours on Thursday, that a team is scheduled to visit Pakistan at night for the first round of talks on the 10-point proposal plan with the United States (US). Moghadam added that Iran is sending delegates despite Israel violating the ceasefire terms by attacking Lebanon.“Despite skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime to sabotage the diplomatic initiative, invited by Hon. PM Shehbaz Sharif, Iranian delegation arrives tonight in Islamabad for serious talks based on 10 points proposed by Iran,” Iranian ambassador Moghadam wrote.
08:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades flat around $74 ahead of US-Iran talks
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades calmly near $74.00 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The white metal struggles for direction amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks on a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan on Saturday.
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The white metal struggles for direction amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks on a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan on Saturday.On late Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Donald Trump will send Vice President (VP) JD Vance-led team in Pakistan on Saturday to discuss the 10-point peace proposal shared by Iran as demands for a permanent ceasefire.Ahead of US-Iran talks, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has criticized the US, through a post on X, for violating three clauses of the 10-point proposal. Qalibaf alleged the US for attacking Lebanon, referring the first clause, which is “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.The Silver price remained under pressure in the past few weeks, as oil prices gained sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as part of retaliation against military actions from the US and Israel.Higher oil prices had prompted traders to raise hawkish bets for global central banks; however, they have eased significantly, following the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 76.4% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady this year, a sharp turnaround from expectations of two interest rate hikes built during the war.Rising hopes of tight monetary conditions by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades almost flat at around $74.00 as of writing, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $74.89. The metal continues to consolidate near recent lows, with the modestly soft 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 suggesting subdued bullish momentum and leaving the path of least resistance tilted to the downside while price remains capped by the overhead EMA.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at $74.89, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more meaningful recovery toward the April 2 high of $81.13. But until price reclaims the EMA, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within a weak short-term structure.Looking down, the psychological level of $70.00 is the key support for the price, followed by the March 26 low of $66.70.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
08:40 WTI holds gains near $92.00 as Strait of Hormuz remains constrained
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price advances after two days of losses, trading around $91.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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Crude oil prices regain ground on renewed supply concerns, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely constrained amid uncertainty over the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire.Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.Reuters reported that analysts said traders are reluctant to fully unwind geopolitical risk premiums, given the lack of clarity on how US-Iran talks will affect oil flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, linking exports from Gulf producers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar to global markets, and typically carrying about 20% of global oil and gas supply.Analysts at Standard Chartered said logistical disruptions, security concerns, high insurance costs, and operational constraints will likely limit additional energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz over the next two weeks. Iranian media reported that authorities have issued navigation maps and designated safe routes around potential mines, coordinated with the Revolutionary Guards. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
08:40 Asian stocks trade lower amid fragile Iran ceasefire, Japan’s Nikkei slips
Most Asian equities trade in negative territory on Thursday as traders remain cautious about whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold.
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Most Asian equities trade in negative territory on Thursday as traders remain cautious about whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold.US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that US forces will remain deployed around Iran until a final agreement is fully implemented. Earlier Thursday, Reuters reported that the ceasefire deal appeared to be on thin ice, as Israel continued its parallel war against the Iran-aligned militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials stated that both Israel and the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal, adding that proceeding with peace talks would be “unreasonable.”The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark, tumbles by 0.81% to 55,865. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that real interest rates are clearly negative and keeping the country's financial conditions accommodative, Reuters reported on Thursday.Meanwhile, South Korean stock, the benchmark KOSPI, fell by 1.73% to 5,770 as traders moved to secure profits, particularly in heavyweight technology stocks.China and Hong Kong stock markets lost momentum on Thursday, with the SHANGHAI, China’s main stock market index, slumping by 0.88% to 3,960. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange declined by 0.27% to 25,822. India’s Nifty50 was down 0.55% to trade at 23,850 on Thursday. In Taiwan, the Taiex decreased 0.20% to 34,700. Other markets in Southeast Asia were lower. Asian stocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
08:37 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains below 159.00 as bulls stay cautious amid softer USD demand
The USD/JPY pair fails just ahead of the 159.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's modest recovery from sub-158.00 levels or a nearly three-week low.
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Spot prices, however, stick to modest intraday gains and currently trade near the 158.70-158.75 region, up around 0.10% for the day.Despite a temporary US-Iran truce, escalation risks remain firmly on the table amid disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and accusations of ceasefire violations from multiple parties. This is seen as a key factor behind the US Dollar's (USD) relative outperformance against its Japanese counterpart and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, though bulls seem hesitant amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook.From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair holds above the 158.25-158.20 horizontal support, which now coincides with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), retaining a constructive near-term bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 suggests momentum is stabilizing rather than deeply oversold. This leaves room for further recovery amid persistent uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict.That said, the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that any upside attempts could face fading momentum unless price accelerates decisively away from the 158.22 floor. A sustained break below the said support would weaken the current positive structure and expose a deeper correction.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)USD/JPY 4-hour chart Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
08:27 USD/INR recovers amid uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Thursday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.65 from the three-week low of 92.20 posted on Wednesday, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
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The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.65 from the three-week low of 92.20 posted on Wednesday, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.The Indian currency weakens in the early trade due to growing doubts over the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire and the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.Iran alleges that US violates three clauses of 10-point proposalIran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Wednesday, that the US has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal, shared by Tehran as demands in consideration of a permanent ceasefire while agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s Qalibaf explicitly criticized the US for non-compliance with the first clause of the 10-point proposal, which was “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”. He warned that a ceasefire in these conditions is “unreasonable”.This has raised uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire, which has revived risk-off impulse, weighing on riskier assets.Meanwhile, the White House announced on Wednesday that it is sending a team, which will be led by Vice President (VP) JD Vance, to Pakistan for the first round of negotiations on Saturday.FIIs remain net sellers despite the Iran ceasefire announcementForeign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to remain net sellers in the Indian stock market despite the US and Iran announcing a two-week ceasefire. On Wednesday, FIIs offloaded their stake worth Rs. 2,811.97 crore. However, the amount sold by foreign investors was significantly lower than the average selling seen in the past trading days of April. In the first four trading days of this month, the average selling by overseas investors was worth Rs. 8,780.39 crore.RBI leaves interest rates unchanged on WednesdayIn the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo, leaving the Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second time in a row. The Indian central bank was expected to do so as higher oil prices due to the Middle East war had de-anchored inflation expectations globally.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that elevated energy prices could prompt imported inflation and widen the current account deficit.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMAIn the early trade, USD/INR trades higher at around 92.60. However, the near-term tone seems bearish as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 92.90. The pair’s inability to reclaim this dynamic resistance after the recent pullback suggests upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the mid-40s hints at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 92.90 is the first level buyers need to clear to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward 94.00. On the downside, Wednesday's low at 92.20 is the immediate support, followed by the March 5 low at 91.40.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
08:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 33.3 below forecasts (38) in March
Japan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 33.3 below forecasts (38) in March
07:57 BoJ’s Ueda says Japan's financial conditions remain accommodative
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that real interest rates are clearly negative and keeping the country's financial conditions accommodative, Reuters reported on Thursday.
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that real interest rates are clearly negative and keeping the country's financial conditions accommodative, Reuters reported on Thursday.Key quotes Short- and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative.
Accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capital expenditure. Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.10% on the day at 158.73. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capital expenditure. Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.10% on the day at 158.73. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
07:47 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 14,172.22 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 14,170.15 it cost on Wednesday.The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 165,302.00 per tola from INR 165,277.80 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram14,172.2210 Grams141,722.20Tola165,302.00Troy Ounce440,803.30FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:42 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates below 0.7050; remains close to three-week high
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past three days and oscillates in a range below mid-0.7000s during the Asian session on Thursday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in March
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in March
07:30 Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume declined to -0.5% in February from previous 0%
Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume declined to -0.5% in February from previous 0%
07:28 EUR/JPY advances above 185.00 as fiscal expansion pressures Japanese Yen
The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 185.20 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid fiscal expansion concerns. The German Industrial Production data for February is due later on Thursday.
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Fiscal expansion concerns weigh on the Japanese Yen. ECB policymakers signaled a shift toward a potential further rate hike if price pressures persist.The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 185.20 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid fiscal expansion concerns. The German Industrial Production data for February is due later on Thursday. Reuters reported on Thursday that the ceasefire deal appeared to be on thin ice, as Israel continued its parallel war against the Iran-aligned militia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials stated that both Israel and the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal, adding that proceeding with peace talks would be “unreasonable.”Traders anxiously assessed whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would hold. "With the Middle East situation becoming more prolonged, there seems to be a view that fiscal policy could turn more expansionary again. That, in turn, is contributing to yen weakness," said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.Markets anticipate a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike at the upcoming April policy meeting, which could support the JPY and create a headwind for the cross. Tomohisa Fujiki of Citi Research indicated that there is up to a 70% probability of this monetary policy adjustment.The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a hawkish tone, with policymakers signaling a shift toward potential further tightening if price pressures persist. ECB officials, including Pierre Wunsch and Dimitar Radev said that an interest rate hike at the April meeting is a live possibility, though many officials view a June move as more likely. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:20 USD/CHF slips to near 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty prevails
USD/CHF remains in the negative territory for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.7910 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire.
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The Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire.Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.The recent surge in oil prices drove Swiss inflation to its fastest annual pace of 0.3% in March, offsetting CHF strength and easing pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to adjust policy. The SNB kept its key rate unchanged at 0% for a third consecutive March meeting and reiterated its readiness to curb Franc appreciation.Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March Meeting Minutes suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Policymakers broadly supported holding rates steady, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening.Traders will likely observe the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:05 US President Donald Trump warns of stronger military response if Iran deal fails
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that US forces will remain deployed around Iran until a final agreement is fully implemented. He emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and safe.
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US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that US forces will remain deployed around Iran until a final agreement is fully implemented. He emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and safe.Key quotesAll United States ships, aircraft, and military personnel will remain in place in and around Iran until the real agreement reached is fully complied with.
No nuclear weapons and Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe.
Ceasefire described as conditional, not final.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.38% on the day at $91.58 WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
No nuclear weapons and Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe.
Ceasefire described as conditional, not final.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.38% on the day at $91.58 WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
07:03 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls await break above 200-SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence near 1.1670
The EUR/USD pair finds some support near the 1.1650 region during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from over a one-month high.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:42 Gold remains depressed as skepticism over US-Iran truce supports USD
Gold (XAU/USD) once again shows some resilience below the $4,700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from a three-week high.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire supports the USD and acts as a headwind for the commodity.The Fed’s dovish outlook caps the USD and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.Gold (XAU/USD) once again shows some resilience below the $4,700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from a three-week high. Skepticism over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire benefits the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and helps limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. The White House also confirmed that Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire drawn up between Iran and the US. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. This keeps a lid on the optimism and supports the USD, undermining the Gold price.Meanwhile, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed a higher-for-longer stance, with officials in no rush to cut interest rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. That said, policymakers still signaled one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear. This caps the attempted USD recovery from a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day, and turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the Gold price.Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy outlook and drive the USD price, providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction for the XAU/USD pair.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold seems vulnerable amid bearish technical setup; acceptance below $4,700 awaitedThe XAU/USD pair holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement of the March downside, keeping a bearish bias intact. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips into negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around a neutral 52, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh impulsive leg higher.Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement around $4,604, with further cushions at the 23.6% level near $4,412 and the prior swing low region close to $4,102, where buyers would be expected to show more interest. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,758, followed by a heavier barrier in the $4,895–$4,914 zone where the 200-period SMA and the 61.8% retracement converge, ahead of higher hurdles at the $5,000 psychological mark.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
06:28 US Dollar Index moves little due to renewed safe-haven demand
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining flat after three days of losses and hovering around 99.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar Index holds ground on safe-haven demand amid fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism.Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US breached three clauses of Iran’s proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.”Fed March Meeting Minutes show a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging risks are becoming more balanced.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining flat after three days of losses and hovering around 99.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Greenback may gain ground as safe-haven demand is renewed amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Policymakers broadly supported holding rates steady, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening.Traders will likely observe the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
06:20 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strives to hold key 20-day EMA
The Pound Sterling trades in a tight range around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
05:27 NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.5800 on RBNZ hawkish hold
The NZD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.5830 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following a hawkish pause from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following a hawkish pause from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).As widely expected, New Zealand’s central bank decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its April policy meeting on Wednesday. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said during the press conference that higher oil prices are reducing household purchasing power and business profit margins, leading to a cautious "wait and see" stance.On Thursday, Breman said that the domestic economy could see stronger growth this year if there was a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. She further stated that the previous rate cuts were still providing some stimulus.Escalating tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the Greenback as a safe-haven currency. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated on Wednesday that the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal. His remarks came after Israel launched a large-scale campaign across Lebanon, killing over 250 people as a result. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire between the US and Iran does not include operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
05:22 Canadian Dollar slips as USD safe-haven bid offsets oil rebound
USD/CAD gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.3860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.
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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Policymakers broadly supported holding rates steady, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening.However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may find support from a rebound in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $91.50 at the time of writing. Crude oil prices rise after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon.Iranian officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:57 RBNZ’s Breman: New Zealand could see stronger growth if Middle East conflict ends soon
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said that domestic economy could see stronger growth this year if there was a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, Reuters reported on Thursday. She added that the previous rate cuts were still providing some stimulus.
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said that domestic economy could see stronger growth this year if there was a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, Reuters reported on Thursday. She added that the previous rate cuts were still providing some stimulus."The difficult issue now is to know how long this conflict will last and how big the consequences will be because it's also supply disruptions," said Breman.Market reaction At the press time, the NZD/USD pair is up 0.13% on the day to trade at 0.5830. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
04:47 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles around $73.50; vulnerable while below 200-EMA
Silver (XAG/USD) is seen extending the previous day's modest pullback from the weekly high and drifting lower during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal currently trades just below mid-$73.00s, down 2.0% for the day, and seems vulnerable to slide further.
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The white metal currently trades just below mid-$73.00s, down 2.0% for the day, and seems vulnerable to slide further.The overnight failure ahead of the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal hurdle on the 4-hour chart and a subsequent weakness below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March downfall favor the XAG/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.18 sits close to neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero with a softening histogram. This hints that upside momentum is fading rather than building for an immediate recovery.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $74.53, with the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart at $76.76 reinforcing a cap ahead of the 50.0% retracement at $78.68. On the downside, the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $69.41 could offer the first notable support, ahead of a more substantial structural floor near the cycle low at $61.12.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)XAG/USD 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
04:28 WTI jumps above $92.50 amid US and Iran’s fragile ceasefire
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $92.80 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price jumps after Iran accuses the US of violating elements of a two-week ceasefire agreement.
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Hezbollah claimed attacks on Israel in response to ceasefire violations. US crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, said EIA. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $92.80 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price jumps after Iran accuses the US of violating elements of a two-week ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah said on Thursday that it fired rockets toward northern Israel in response to “ceasefire violations” committed by the Israeli army, per Reuters. On Wednesday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the US had breached the terms of the ceasefire deal. Nonetheless, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire between the US and Iran does not include operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Concerns that Middle East tensions could escalate again and disrupt energy supplies might boost the WTI price in the near term. US crude oil inventories continue to climb, which might cap the upside for the WTI price. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending April 3 climbed by 3.081 million barrels, compared to an increase of 700,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a rise of 5.451 million barrels. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
04:27 Australian Dollar declines due to fading optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire
AUD/USD snaps a three-day winning streak, trading near 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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The risk-sensitive pair weakens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting the 10-point framework lacks full commitment from both sides, leaving the deal fragile and incomplete.However, the Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised rates by 50 basis points to 4.10% amid persistently high inflation. Markets now anticipate another hike in May, with rates seen reaching 4.61% by year-end.According to Reuters, Iranian officials said recent developments violate the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to proceed with talks for a permanent agreement with the United States (US).The warning from Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, underscores ongoing regional volatility. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had halted after Israel expanded strikes in Lebanon.Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:16 Japanese Yen moves away from three-week top as tenuous US-Iran ceasefire benefits USD
The USD/JPY pair builds on the previous day's modest bounce from sub-158.00 levels, or a nearly three-week low, and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices climb back closer to the 159.00 mark in the last hour and draw support from a combination of factors.
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Spot prices climb back closer to the 159.00 mark in the last hour and draw support from a combination of factors.Investors turned skeptical about the durability of a fragile US-Iran ceasefire after Israel launched its largest assault on Lebanon. Adding to this, Iran reportedly is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon. This keeps a lid on the optimism and benefits the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz was halted minutes after Israel's large-scale attack on Lebanon. Given Japan's dependence on oil imports from the Middle East, the latest developments revive concerns that the economy will come under substantial strain in the foreseeable future. This further undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and lends additional support to the USD/JPY pair.The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant on the back of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook. In fact, Minutes of the March FOMC meeting released on Wednesday showed that the central bank still sees interest rate cuts in the future if inflation were to decline in line with expectations. This, in turn, could limit any further appreciation for the USD/JPY pair as traders now look forward to the crucial US inflation data for some meaningful impetus.The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due later during the North American session. The focus will then shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, which will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's policy outlook and drive the USD demand. Apart from this, geopolitical headlines should contribute to infusing volatility in the global financial markets and around the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8649 vs. 6.8680 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8649 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8680 and 6.8315 Reuters estimate.
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On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8649 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8680 and 6.8315 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:03 Hezbollah claims attacks at northern Israel in response to ceasefire violations
Hezbollah said that it fired rockets toward northern Israel in response to “ceasefire violations” committed by the Israeli army, Reuters reported on Thursday.
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Hezbollah said that it fired rockets toward northern Israel in response to “ceasefire violations” committed by the Israeli army, Reuters reported on Thursday.Israel on Wednesday launched a large-scale campaign across Lebanon, killing over 250 people as a result. The Israel Defense Forces described it as the largest coordinated strikes on the country since the war began.The Israeli attacks came hours after a ceasefire between Iran and the US was agreed. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragachi pointed to an announcement that says the ceasefire includes Lebanon, but US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire between the US and Iran does not include operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.Market reactionCrude oil prices attract some buyers following this headline. At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.12% on the day at $92.27. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:26 EUR/USD softens to near 1.1650 as Middle East tensions lift US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1655 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid uncertainty surrounding the two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥2B (April 3) vs ¥-4B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥2B (April 3) vs ¥-4B
02:30 Iran says peace talks would be 'unreasonable' as Israel expands Lebanon strikes — Reuters
Sporadic fighting continued in the Middle East, including in Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday.
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Sporadic fighting continued in the Middle East, including in Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday. Iran officials cast that as violating the terms of the less than day-old ceasefire, suggesting that it would be "unreasonable" to proceed with talks to forge a permanent peace deal with the United States (US).The warning from Iran's lead negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, laid bare the continued volatility in the region. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz stopped after Israel expanded Lebanon strikes. The White House announced the US would hold direct talks with Iran even as continued fighting in the Middle East. US Vice President JD Vance would lead an American delegation to Islamabad, with the first round of talks taking place Saturday morning local time.According to CNN, Israel targeted more than 100 sites across Lebanon on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces describing it as the largest coordinated strikes on the country since the war began.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.53% on the day at $91.40. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:15 Gold edges lower below $4,750 amid fragile Middle East ceasefire
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
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Two-week ceasefire fails to halt Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Fed officials still expect a rate cut this year despite war impacts, FOMC Minutes showed.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed "to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. “The ceasefire is calming markets and easing pressure. It could help roll back some inflationary pressures and might open the door for Fed rate cuts, which is bullish for gold,” said Edward Meir, a Marex analyst.The recovery of yellow metal could be short-term as sporadic fighting continued in the Middle East, including in Lebanon. Iranian officials cast that as violating the terms of the less than day-old ceasefire.Gold faced some selling pressure in recent weeks amid worries that surging oil prices from the Middle East conflict would create inflationary pressures and prevent central banks from cutting interest rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty, but it does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.According to minutes released Wednesday, Fed officials at their March meeting still expected to lower interest rates this year, even with a high level of uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs. Policymakers stated that they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continued to hold above the Fed’s target, and hiring, which has been mostly flat over the past year. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:09 GBP/USD pulls back from 1.3485 as fragile ceasefire clouds outlook
GBP/USD surged more than 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire, pushing Cable to a session high close to 1.3485.
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The rally faded through the North American session, however, with the pair slipping back to the 1.3400 region as doubts over the deal's durability mounted. Vice President JD Vance described the agreement as a "fragile truce," and Israel launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the war began, declaring the Hezbollah front excluded from the terms.On the Pound Sterling side, Wednesday's UK data painted a soft picture. Halifax house prices fell 0.5% MoM in March against expectations of a 0.1% gain, while the S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45.6, well below the prior 44.5 reading. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing price balance plunged to negative 23%, its weakest since early 2024. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) March meeting minutes, released Wednesday evening, confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Officials flagged rising near-term inflation expectations driven by oil prices and tariffs, while most judged it too early to know how the conflict in the Middle East would affect the US economy. The median projection still calls for one 25 basis point cut this year, but several members noted that a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation stays above target. Thursday brings the Bank of England's (BoE) Q1 Credit Conditions Survey, though higher-impact releases sit firmly on the US side of the docket. Thursday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February, fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched, followed by Friday's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary April consumer sentiment and inflation expectations readings.GBP/USD 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 15-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3399. The pair holds a modest bullish intraday bias as it trades above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3354, keeping the latest rebound supported while short-term momentum remains constructive. The Stochastic RSI at around 81 sits in overbought territory, hinting that upside follow-through may slow even as the broader near-term structure stays underpinned above the 200-period EMA.On the downside, initial support is located at the 200-period EMA at 1.3354, where a break lower would signal fading bullish pressure and expose deeper pullbacks toward prior intraday lows. As long as GBP/USD respects this moving average on dips, buyers are likely to defend the current consolidation, while overbought oscillators warn that fresh highs may attract profit-taking rather than a sustained breakout.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance below forecasts (-18%) in March: Actual (-23%)
United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance below forecasts (-18%) in March: Actual (-23%)
01:45 USD/JPY tests 158.00 as ceasefire saps safe-haven demand
USD/JPY fell around 0.66% on Wednesday, retreating from the session high near 160.00 to settle close to 158.50.
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The sharp reversal from the 160.00 level, which has only been tested once since Tokyo's intervention campaign in July 2024, produced a series of lower highs on the intraday chart, with price consolidating in a tight band just below the 15-minute 200-period EMA heading into the Asian open.The selloff was triggered by news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, including an agreement by Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal immediately crushed the safe-haven bid that had propelled the US Dollar and crude oil higher throughout March, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower as the Yen clawed back losses. However, the ceasefire is already proving tenuous; neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and traders are treating the two-week window as a countdown rather than a resolution. On the Japanese Yen side, the domestic calendar offers little through Friday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to hike at its April 28 meeting, with markets pricing roughly a 70% probability of an increase, but the decision is still weeks away. Attention therefore shifts entirely to the US: Thursday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February alongside fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while Friday delivers March Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.USD/JPY 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.57, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.92. The pair’s latest slide has left price clearly capped by this medium-term dynamic barrier, while the Stochastic RSI has dropped into oversold territory near 14, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet reversed.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period EMA around 158.92, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a recovery toward higher intraday levels. With no clear nearby structural supports on the chart, any further decline from current levels would likely rely on fresh price discovery to establish a new floor, although the oversold Stochastic RSI suggests that sellers may become more cautious on deeper dips.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
01:01 AUD/USD stalls below 0.7100 as ceasefire euphoria fades
AUD/USD gave back a portion of Wednesday's sharp rally, settling around 0.7050 after surging over 1% earlier in the session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD surged over 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran struck a last-minute ceasefire, but gains stalled below 0.7100.Australian economic data is largely absent for the rest of the week, leaving Thursday's US PCE and Friday's CPI in the driver's seat.AUD/USD gave back a portion of Wednesday's sharp rally, settling around 0.7050 after surging over 1% earlier in the session. The pair spiked to a three-week high near 0.7085 on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but momentum faded quickly as markets questioned the durability of the deal, with price pulling back into a tight range of small-bodied candles heading into the Asian open.The ceasefire, which includes an agreement by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, initially crushed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and sent risk-sensitive currencies sharply higher. However, the deal is already proving tenuous; reports suggest neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and traders are treating the two-week window as a countdown rather than a resolution. On the Australian Dollar side, the domestic calendar is functionally empty for the remainder of the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, and markets are pricing the possibility of further tightening at the May decision as elevated energy costs keep inflation pressures alive. With no local data to trade, attention shifts entirely to the US: Thursday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February and fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while Friday delivers March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data alongside the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.AUD/USD 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7047. The pair holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7005, which suggests a mildly bullish intraday bias as price respects this underlying dynamic support. The Stochastic RSI near 71 hints at firm but increasingly stretched upside momentum, leaving room for consolidation or a shallow pullback while the price action stays supported above the 200-EMA.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA around 0.7005, where buyers would be expected to defend the short-term uptrend if a corrective dip unfolds. As long as AUD/USD remains above this level, the near-term structure favors further recovery attempts, with any pause likely to develop as sideways consolidation rather than a deeper reversal in the very short term.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:56 NZD/USD holds fragile footing as USD demand returns amid geopolitical noise
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5830 region on Thursday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regains some traction following shifting geopolitical headlines.
Fragile ceasefire headlines fade quickly, keeping risk sentiment unstable and supporting the USD.RBNZ's cautious stance limits NZD upside as policymakers balance inflation risks and weak growth.Fed’s steady tone and firm yields continue to underpin the Greenback.The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5830 region on Thursday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regains some traction following shifting geopolitical headlines.Market sentiment initially improved after reports suggested a potential ceasefire framework between the United States, Iran, and Israel. However, optimism faded quickly as the agreement appears fragile, with key conditions still unresolved and ongoing military activity in the Middle East continuing to weigh on confidence. From a macro perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains in a delicate position. Inflation remains slightly above the 1–3% target band, but policymakers have signaled a willingness to “look through” energy-driven price pressures unless they spill over into broader inflation. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to project a cautious but firm stance. Recent communication, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, reinforced a data-dependent approach, with policymakers acknowledging inflation risks tied to higher oil prices.
Short-term technical analysis:On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5822, holding a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. Price action is now probing a band of overhead levels after reclaiming the 0.58 handle, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5839, followed closely by 0.5847, with further bullish targets at 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 if buying pressure extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5816 ahead of 0.5809, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 100-period SMA around 0.5780 and then the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 to maintain the broader constructive structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Short-term technical analysis:On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5822, holding a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. Price action is now probing a band of overhead levels after reclaiming the 0.58 handle, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5839, followed closely by 0.5847, with further bullish targets at 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 if buying pressure extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5816 ahead of 0.5809, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 100-period SMA around 0.5780 and then the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 to maintain the broader constructive structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
00:42 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Forms shooting-star, drops below 112.00 as bears lurk
The Australian Dollar extended its gains versus the Japanese Yen, driven by an improvement in risk appetite amid the two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/JPY rises as ceasefire optimism boosts global risk appetite.RSI tilts lower despite bullish bias, signaling fading upside momentum.Break below 111.50 exposes 111.00 and 110.47 support levels.The Australian Dollar extended its gains versus the Japanese Yen, driven by an improvement in risk appetite amid the two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran. Still, traders must be aware that hostilities remain as Israel strikes Beirut, saying that Lebanon is not part of the deal. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 111.79, up 0.39%.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY seems poised to consolidate, as it forms a quasi-shooting star, preceded by an uptrend that is about to close below the candle's half-size, an indication that buyers are losing momentum.This is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is bullish, but tilted to the downside, towards the index`s 50-neutral level. Hence, a clear break below 50 would mean that sellers are gaining momentum, pushing the AUD/JPY lower.For a bullish continuation, buyers need to clear the April 8 daily high at 112.38, which would open the path to challenge 113.00. Further resistance lies overjed at 113.96, the March 11 peak.Conversely, if AUD/JPY drops to 111.50, a psychological level a move towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.02 and the 111.00 figure is likely. Below here, sellers are gradually taking hold, driving the cross towards the 50-day SMA at 110.47, ahead of the 110.00 milestone.AUD/JPY Price — ChartAUD/JPY Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.21% -1.55% -0.63% -0.68% -2.20% -2.21% -1.12% EUR 1.21% -0.35% 0.57% 0.56% -1.02% -1.02% 0.08% GBP 1.55% 0.35% 0.87% 0.88% -0.66% -0.68% 0.43% JPY 0.63% -0.57% -0.87% -0.05% -1.55% -1.55% -0.53% CAD 0.68% -0.56% -0.88% 0.05% -1.54% -1.52% -0.44% AUD 2.20% 1.02% 0.66% 1.55% 1.54% -0.02% 1.11% NZD 2.21% 1.02% 0.68% 1.55% 1.52% 0.02% 1.12% CHF 1.12% -0.08% -0.43% 0.53% 0.44% -1.11% -1.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
