Forex News Timeline
16:24 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pair steadies above 207.00 ahead of BoE and BoJ decisions
The British Pound (GBP) trims part of its earlier losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday after an initial sell-off triggered by softer-than-expected UK inflation data.
GBP/JPY rebounds from the 207.00 area after UK inflation weighs on Sterling.Traders avoid aggressive bets ahead of Thursday’s BoE and BoJ policy meetings.A sustained break above 208.00 could open the door for a move toward a fresh year-to-date high above 209.00.The British Pound (GBP) trims part of its earlier losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday after an initial sell-off triggered by softer-than-expected UK inflation data. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 207.60, rebounding modestly after buyers stepped in near the 207.00 psychological level.The recovery, however, lacks conviction and appears driven by short-term repositioning, as traders remain reluctant to take aggressive bets ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decisions from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Looking ahead, most of the policy outcome is already priced in. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates, while the BoE is seen cutting rates, leaving the focus firmly on forward guidance that could play a key role in setting the next move for GBP/JPY. From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY remains in a strong uptrend on the daily chart, marked by a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Prices continue to trade comfortably above key moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish bias.On the upside, the 208.00 psychological level acts as immediate resistance. A sustained break above this barrier could open the door for another leg higher toward a fresh year-to-date high above 209.00, with scope for further gains if bullish momentum strengthens.On the downside, immediate support is seen near 207.00, which aligns with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break below this level would weaken the near-term outlook and expose the 204.00–205.00 support zone near the 50-day SMA. A decisive drop below the 50-day SMA would shift the tone toward a deeper corrective phase, with the 100-day SMA around 201.00 coming into focus.Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near 60 and staying above its midline, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact.
16:08 JPY lags G10 ahead of BoJ decision – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (K{U}) weakened as markets looked past solid domestic data and focused on positioning and Friday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where a rate hike and a more hawkish outlook are widely expected, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Japanese Yen (K{U}) weakened as markets looked past solid domestic data and focused on positioning and Friday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where a rate hike and a more hawkish outlook are widely expected, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD/JPY presses higher despite strong Japan data"The yen is down 0.5% vs. the USD and underperforming all of the G10 currencies with the exception of GBP. Broader developments appear to be dominating as we note the absence of any material reaction to the release of stronger than expected trade and machine orders data." "Positioning may also be playing a role as market participants adjust for near-term event risk and the BoJ policy decision on Friday. A 25bpt hike is widely anticipated, and policymakers are expected to endorse a higher rate path in 2026 along with a wider trading band for longer term yields." "For USD/JPY, we continue to highlight the importance of near-term support at the 50 day MA (154.27) and look to near-term resistance above 156.50."
16:03 GBP: Pound slumps after soft UK CPI – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened sharply against the US Dollar (USD) after softer-than-expected inflation reinforced expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut and a more dovish policy path into 2026, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened sharply against the US Dollar (USD) after softer-than-expected inflation reinforced expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut and a more dovish policy path into 2026, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. BoE rate cut expectations weigh on GBP"The pound is weak, down 0.7% vs. the USD and underperforming all of the G10 currencies on the back of a softer than expected CPI release with headline and core both coming in at 3.2% y/y.""The BoE is expected to deliver a 25bpt cut at tomorrow’s meeting, and this latest inflation report is weighing on the market’s expectations for the policy trajectory in 2026. Yield spreads have narrowed, eroding an important source of the pound’s recent support." "Sentiment remains a dominant driver however, and risk reversals have faded a good portion of the premium for protection against downside risk for GBP/USD."
15:58 Euro softens as US Dollar strengthens – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) while outperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
The Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) while outperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. ECB is seen to hold with mildly hawkish tone"The outlook for relative central bank policy continues to dominate as market participants look to Thursday’s ECB meeting, where a widely anticipated hold (2.00% deposit rate) is expected to be paired with a constructive adjustment to the central bank’s economic projections and a moderately hawkish shift in communication." "Narrowing interest rate differentials have been offering fundamental support to the EUR, and short-term correlation studies are confirming their importance as a near-term driver. Wednesday’s fundamental releases have included the final euro area CPI figures, nearly in line with expectations at 2.1% y/y on headline and 2.4% y/y on core. Germany’s IFO business sentiment survey release was also largely in line with expectations, delivering a fractional disappointment.""EUR/USD’s latest rally looks to be taking a pause following its recovery from the mid/late November lows around 1.15. Momentum remains bullish however the RSI appears to be pulling back from overbought levels around 70. We see scope for near-term support around 1.1680 and near-term resistance above 1.1750."
15:52 USD/CAD edges lower amid year-end CAD trends – Scotiabank
USD/CAD notched up a slightly lower low in the current down cycle yesterday and while the CAD is a little softer this morning, it is still bucking its usual trend of seasonal ambivalence in December, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
USD/CAD notched up a slightly lower low in the current down cycle yesterday and while the CAD is a little softer this morning, it is still bucking its usual trend of seasonal ambivalence in December, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. CAD weakness limited despite seasonal patterns"Late year trends tend to be CAD-negative but, in broad terms, CAD losses typically even out in December (before losses resume in in the new year). The CAD weakens more often than it gains (but only marginally so) and average returns for the month are about as close to flat as you can get. Nov is the CAD’s worst month of the year while Apr (quite reliably) is the best. Despite the intraday spot gains, USD/CAD is (currently) trading just below our fair value estimate (1.3794) today." "Scope for additional USD gains may be limited absent further bullish developments. There was nothing new on the monetary policy front from yesterday’s speech by Gov. Macklem. He reaffirmed that the benchmark rate at 2.25% was the appropriate level and that inflationary pressures appeared contained.""USD gains from the intraday low yesterday are putting the short-term downtrend in funds under pressure. The USD selloff has looked a little stretched and a mild correction may develop above 1.3790/00 to the mid/upper 1.38s. Support is 1.3725/30."
15:47 USD firms on holiday positioning and Venezuela Oil blockade – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) gained amid holiday positioning and a Trump-imposed Venezuelan oil blockade, though slowing labor market trends suggest the Fed could ease more aggressively in 2026.
The US Dollar (USD) gained amid holiday positioning and a Trump-imposed Venezuelan oil blockade, though slowing labor market trends suggest the Fed could ease more aggressively in 2026. Dollar gains may stall near the upper 98s without fresh catalysts, as speculation over the next Fed chair adds uncertainty to markets, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Trump’s Fed Chair choice adds volatility to USD and yields"The USD is trading higher overall on the session as markets adjust positioning and start thinking about the holidays now the week’s main event is over. At the margin, some haven demand may be driving USD gains in response to President Trump imposing an oil blockade on Venezuela. Oil and gold price are stronger. Global stocks are moderately firmer while Treasurys are soft." "A slowing labour market suggests the Fed may loosen monetary policy a little sooner and perhaps a little more aggressively than markets have priced in for 2026. While the USD is firming today, we remain bearish on the broader outlook. DXY gains may peter out in the upper 98/low 99 zone without additional impetus. Meanwhile, Citadel’s Griffin commented yesterday that it was 'important to keep distance between the Fed and the White House'.""Reports have emerged recently suggesting 'pushback' from high level people close to the president regarding Hassett’s potential nomination as Fed chair. The reports have triggered a slide in online betting on Hassett and a jump in bets favouring Warsh’s nomination. Warsh is considered a strong candidate, given his term as a Fed governor (2006-11) and financial market experience. However, he comes with a reputation of something of a policy hawk and that is apparently not the sort of thinking President Trump wants at the top of the Fed. If it really is boiling down to these two candidates, US yields and the USD may rise somewhat if Warsh is picked. A Hassett nomination may be something of a liability for the USD and Treasurys."
15:32 Fed's Waller: There is no rush to cut interest rates given outlook
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates, given the current outlook, per Reuters.
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Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates, given the current outlook, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Jobs market is very soft, current payrolls growth not good.""Fed rate cuts have helped jobs market.""2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hope that helps job market.""Inflation above target but should come down over next few months.""Inflation expectations are anchored.""Don't know yet what AI will do to job market.""There's not going to be a re-acceleration in inflation.""The job market says Fed should continue to cut rates.""We are not seeing job market go off a cliff.""Fed can go at a moderate pace, doesn't need dramatic action.""Fed is 50 to 100 basis points over neutral.""I think that inflation is going to come down.""Hard to say tariffs caused job market weakness.""Not wrong for there to be interactions between Fed and administration.""Fed can cut interest rates just off of moderating inflation outlook.""New Fed asset buying is not stimulus."Market reactionThese comments received a neutral score of 4.6 from FXStreet Fed Speech Tracker and failed to trigger a significant market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.3% on the day at 98.50. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities registered at $46.62B above expectations ($21.84B) in October
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities registered at $46.62B above expectations ($21.84B) in October
15:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities dipped from previous $22.12B to $-11.58B in October
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities dipped from previous $22.12B to $-11.58B in October
15:10 EUR/GBP higher on soft UK CPI and stable Eurozone inflation
The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as softer-than-expected UK inflation data weigh on Sterling, while stable Eurozone inflation leaves the Euro relatively supported. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8785, reversing the previous day’s losses.
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At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8785, reversing the previous day’s losses.Data published by the UK Office for National Statistics showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% MoM in November, missing market expectations for a flat reading and reversing sharply from October’s 0.4% increase. On an annual basis, CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its lowest level in eight months, down from 3.6% previously and below forecasts of 3.5%.Underlying price pressures also moderated. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, slowed to 3.2% YoY from 3.4%.On the employment front, recent data showed that labour market conditions continued to ease in October, with the ILO Unemployment Rate rising to 5.1%, its highest level since Q1 2021, even as wage growth remained relatively firm.Together, the softer inflation backdrop and easing labour market conditions strengthen the case for a more accommodative stance from the Bank of England (BoE). Markets are widely expecting the BoE to deliver a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at Thursday’s monetary policy meeting, with interest rate futures also pointing to around 69 bps of additional easing priced in by the end of 2026.On the Euro side, inflation data remained broadly stable, reinforcing the view that price pressures in the Eurozone are holding close to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell 0.3% MoM in November, in line with expectations and unchanged from October. On an annual basis, HICP eased to 2.1% YoY, below both the 2.2% forecast and October’s 2.2% reading.Meanwhile, core HICP, which excludes volatile components, declined 0.5% MoM, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual core rate held steady at 2.4% YoY, in line with expectations.The steady inflation backdrop supports the ECB’s current wait-and-see stance, with policymakers widely expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s policy meeting. Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.22% 0.62% 0.50% 0.22% 0.16% 0.18% 0.07% EUR -0.22% 0.41% 0.26% 0.00% -0.06% -0.03% -0.14% GBP -0.62% -0.41% -0.12% -0.39% -0.46% -0.43% -0.54% JPY -0.50% -0.26% 0.12% -0.26% -0.33% -0.32% -0.42% CAD -0.22% -0.01% 0.39% 0.26% -0.07% -0.04% -0.16% AUD -0.16% 0.06% 0.46% 0.33% 0.07% 0.02% -0.08% NZD -0.18% 0.03% 0.43% 0.32% 0.04% -0.02% -0.11% CHF -0.07% 0.14% 0.54% 0.42% 0.16% 0.08% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
14:49 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD is showing signs of hesitation above $4.300
Gold (XAU/USD) is posting marginal gains on Wednesday, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Upside attempts remain capped below all-time highs at $4,350, and bears are contained above the $4,260-$4,270 so far.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trimming some losses on Wednesday, and that is limiting Gold upside attempts so far. US data released on Tuesday maintain fears about a deteriorating labour market intact, but traders are waiting for Thursday’s US Consumer Prices Index report to reassess their expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Fed.Technical Analysis: Gold is forming a triangle pattern around $4,300
XAU/USD trades at $4,316.73, little changed daily, with recent price action forming a triangle pattern roughly around the $4,300 level, with an ascending parallel channel framing the broader uptrend. Triangles are considered continuation patterns and, in this case, they would signal a positive outcome.Technical indicators, however, show mixed signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with the histogram contracting, suggesting fading bearish pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 57.77, maintaining a modest bullish tone. Immediate resistance is at the top of the triangle, at $4,340 area and the December 12 and 15 highs, at $4,350 area. Further up, the top of the ascending channel, now around $4,385, emerges as the next target. Supports are at the $4,300 intraday low, ahead of the triangle bottom of $4,280 and the base of the channel, near $4,240.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trimming some losses on Wednesday, and that is limiting Gold upside attempts so far. US data released on Tuesday maintain fears about a deteriorating labour market intact, but traders are waiting for Thursday’s US Consumer Prices Index report to reassess their expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Fed.Technical Analysis: Gold is forming a triangle pattern around $4,300
XAU/USD trades at $4,316.73, little changed daily, with recent price action forming a triangle pattern roughly around the $4,300 level, with an ascending parallel channel framing the broader uptrend. Triangles are considered continuation patterns and, in this case, they would signal a positive outcome.Technical indicators, however, show mixed signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with the histogram contracting, suggesting fading bearish pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 57.77, maintaining a modest bullish tone. Immediate resistance is at the top of the triangle, at $4,340 area and the December 12 and 15 highs, at $4,350 area. Further up, the top of the ascending channel, now around $4,385, emerges as the next target. Supports are at the $4,300 intraday low, ahead of the triangle bottom of $4,280 and the base of the channel, near $4,240.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
14:18 EUR/JPY jumps above 182.00 as Japanese Yen underperforms, ECB-BoJ policy eyed
The EUR/JPY pair is up 0.25% to near 182.15 during the European trading session on Wednesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY snaps two-day losing streak and rises to near 182.15 amid weakness in the Japanese Yen.This week, the ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, while the BoJ seems to raise them by 25 bps.The German IFO Business Climate unexpectedly dropped to 87.6 in December from 88.0 prior.The EUR/JPY pair is up 0.25% to near 182.15 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair trades higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major pairs, despite traders remaining confident that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in its monetary policy meeting on Friday. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% 0.68% 0.48% 0.23% 0.18% 0.18% 0.12% EUR -0.26% 0.40% 0.20% -0.04% -0.09% -0.09% -0.14% GBP -0.68% -0.40% -0.19% -0.45% -0.49% -0.49% -0.55% JPY -0.48% -0.20% 0.19% -0.24% -0.29% -0.30% -0.35% CAD -0.23% 0.04% 0.45% 0.24% -0.05% -0.06% -0.11% AUD -0.18% 0.09% 0.49% 0.29% 0.05% -0.00% -0.06% NZD -0.18% 0.09% 0.49% 0.30% 0.06% 0.00% -0.06% CHF -0.12% 0.14% 0.55% 0.35% 0.11% 0.06% 0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The BoJ is expected to hike borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% as comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, came last week, signaled that the central bank is “closer to attaining its inflation target”, adding that the odds of “central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materializing had been gradually increasing”.Given firm market expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary conditions, investors will look for comments about the timeframe for the next interest rate hike.While the Euro (EUR) trades higher against the JPY, it is underperforming its other peers ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday. The ECB is widely anticipated to keep the Deposit Facility Rate steady at 2% as a majority of officials have stated lately that there is no need for monetary policy adjustment as inflation is close to the central bank’s target of 2%. Investors will pay close attention to cues regarding how long the ECB will hold interest rates at their current levels.On the economic front, the German business morale has surprisingly dropped in December. Earlier in the day, the German IFO Institute's Business Climate Index came in lower at 87.6 from 88.0 in November, while it was expected to improve to 88.2. Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Dec 18, 2025 13:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: European Central Bank
14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.8% (December 12) vs previous 4.8%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.8% (December 12) vs previous 4.8%
13:52 EUR supported by German fiscal stimulus and diversification flows – Rabobank
The Euro (EUR) has benefited from Germany’s fiscal loosening and diversification flows, but stronger US growth projections and resilient consumer spending suggest EUR/USD may remain range-bound in 2026 rather than extending a major rally, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.
The Euro (EUR) has benefited from Germany’s fiscal loosening and diversification flows, but stronger US growth projections and resilient consumer spending suggest EUR/USD may remain range-bound in 2026 rather than extending a major rally, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. Fed upgrades US growth, limiting further USD weakness"While German fiscal spending is expected to finally shake Europe’s largest economy out of stagnation next year, the EUR has been preparing for this for months. Following the loosening of Germany’s debt brake at the start of this year, the EUR took the position of second best performing G10 currency in Q2 after the safe-haven CHF." "Diversification trades suggest that the EUR will continue to find support this year. That said, last week the Fed upgraded its US growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 citing resilience in consumer spending and a pick-up in business investment. This should support investment inflows into the US." "Given the massive shake out in long USD positions in the first half of the year and the smaller degree of disruption to the US economy than had been feared from Trump’s tariffs policies, we are reluctant to call for further progressive USD downside in 2026. Instead, we favour periods of choppy range trading for EUR/USD."
13:49 Gold retreats slightly as US Dollar rebounds
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias on Wednesday but struggles to build on early gains, as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) caps upside momentum. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,315, easing back after briefly touching $4,342 during the early European session.
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At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,315, easing back after briefly touching $4,342 during the early European session.Despite the range-bound price action seen so far this week, the broader bias for the yellow metal remains constructive, as a dovish Federal Reserve outlook and persistent geopolitical risks help limit downside attempts.Market expectations continue to tilt toward further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 after Tuesday’s delayed US jobs data reinforced concerns about a cooling labour market, with attention now turning to Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.The US economic calendar is relatively light on Wednesday, investors will parse comments from key FOMC members for additional clues on the Fed’s monetary policy path next year.Market movers: US jobs data reinforce Fed easing expectations; geopolitical risks resurfaceThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.50, extending its rebound after briefly slipping below 98.00 on Tuesday, its lowest level since October 3.Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, slightly above market expectations for a 50,000 increase, after payrolls fell by 105,000 in October due to the government shutdown. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6%, above expectations of 4.4%, marking its highest level since September 2021.The report also showed that US payrolls were revised down by a combined 33,000 over August and September, echoing remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who warned at last week’s post-meeting press conference that job gains since April may have been overstated by around 60,000.Overall, the employment data suggest that the US labour market continues to cool. While November’s payroll gain came in slightly better than expected, the broader picture remains soft, with slower job creation, rising unemployment and easing wage growth. The data reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to ease policy, with markets currently pricing in two rate cuts next year.Geopolitical tensions are back in focus after earlier optimism around progress in US-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks was overshadowed by fresh developments, with reports that US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned Oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates below 4,350 resistanceFrom a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains constructive after breaking above the $4,250 level, though near-term upside appears capped around $4,350, leaving prices vulnerable to a period of consolidation.On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD continues to trade within an ascending structure, supported by a rising trendline drawn from the mid-November lows near $4,000.The 21-period SMA, currently around $4,310, offers immediate dynamic support, followed by a stronger support zone near $4,250, where the 50-period SMA converges. On the upside, a decisive break above the $4,350 region would be needed to clear near-term resistance and open the door for a retest of record highs and potentially further gains.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 58, remaining in neutral-to-bullish territory above its midline. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at around 29.75 suggests the broader trend remains intact, though some cooling in momentum implies consolidation could precede the next directional move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:48 GBP slips as UK inflation cools sharply – BBH
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is under pressure after UK inflation fell more than expected in November, paving the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver a widely anticipated 25bps rate cut tomorrow. Markets now price in an accelerated easing cycle over the next year, BBH FX analysts report.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is under pressure after UK inflation fell more than expected in November, paving the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver a widely anticipated 25bps rate cut tomorrow. Markets now price in an accelerated easing cycle over the next year, BBH FX analysts report. BoE poised for rate cut after weak CPI print"GBP is underperforming across the board. UK inflation cooled more than anticipated in November, leaving room for the Bank of England (BOE) to dial up easing." "Headline CPI fell to an eight-month low at 3.2% y/y (consensus: 3.6%, BOE projection: 3.4%) vs. 3.5% in October, core CPI dipped 0.2pts to near a one year low at 3.2% y/y (consensus: 3.4%), and the policy-relevant services CPI dropped 0.1pts to near a one year low at 4.4% y/y (consensus & BOE projection: 4.5%).""The swaps market raised odds for a cumulative 75bps of BOE rate cuts in the next twelve months to 90% from 80%. The BOE is widely expected to trim the policy 25bps to 3.75% tomorrow. We expect GBP to continue underperforming on the crosses."
13:40 AUD/USD corrects further to near 0.6620 as US Dollar gains, US CPI in focus
The AUD/USD pair extends its correction further to near 0.6620 during the European trading session on Wednesday, which started on Thursday after refreshing an almost three-month high near 0.6686.
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The Aussie pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recovers further on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is done with reducing interest rates, at least for now, after lowering them by 75 basis points (bps) this year to 3.50%-3.75%.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% higher to near 98.60.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%-3.50% in the January meeting is almost 20%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also stated in the policy meeting last week that the bar for another interest rate cut is very high.Meanwhile, the rising United States (US) jobless rate has also failed to lift Fed dovish expectations. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Tuesday showed that the Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.6% in November, the highest reading seen since September 2021.Going forward, the major driver for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Thursday.On the Australian Dollar (AUD) front, the currency is broadly stable against its other peers as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold interest rates at their current levels. The RBA is unlikely to make dovish monetary adjustments in the near term as inflationary pressures have risen above the central bank’s tolerance band of 2%-3%. Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report. Read more. Last release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.6% Consensus: 4.4% Previous: 4.4% Source:
13:38 EU accepts deal to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027
The European Union (EU) parliament announces during European trading hours on Wednesday that it has approved a deal to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027.
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The European Union (EU) parliament announces during European trading hours on Wednesday that it has approved a deal to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027.Market reactionIt is difficult to ascertain the impact of the news on the EUR/USD pair, which is trading lower since the opening. As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.3% to near 1.1700. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.30% 0.75% 0.48% 0.27% 0.29% 0.28% 0.21% EUR -0.30% 0.44% 0.18% -0.01% -0.01% -0.02% -0.09% GBP -0.75% -0.44% -0.27% -0.49% -0.45% -0.46% -0.53% JPY -0.48% -0.18% 0.27% -0.21% -0.19% -0.21% -0.28% CAD -0.27% 0.01% 0.49% 0.21% 0.02% 0.00% -0.04% AUD -0.29% 0.00% 0.45% 0.19% -0.02% -0.01% -0.09% NZD -0.28% 0.02% 0.46% 0.21% -0.01% 0.00% -0.08% CHF -0.21% 0.09% 0.53% 0.28% 0.04% 0.09% 0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
13:34 USD moderates after mixed double-NFP release – MUFG
A double-NFP data release always had the potential to fuel a spike in volatility and a shift in market pricing into year-end, but alas it was not to be with the data certainly indicating still weak labour market conditions, but just not weak enough to see global investors reconsider the current prof
A double-NFP data release always had the potential to fuel a spike in volatility and a shift in market pricing into year-end, but alas it was not to be with the data certainly indicating still weak labour market conditions, but just not weak enough to see global investors reconsider the current profile for rate cut expectations in 2026. A March rate cut remains around a 50-50 call following the data with the only top-tier data release remaining the CPI data for November, to be released Thursday, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.Strong retail sales highlight consumer divide"The moderate recovery of the dollar also reflected the mixed nature of the other data releases – the Control Group retail sales surged 0.8% m/m, the biggest increase since June. We continue to see a disconnect between the labour market and consumer spending reflecting the K-shaped performance amongst consumers. Lower income earners suffer from the cost of living crisis and see much less benefit from the strong equity market performance in contrast to higher income earners. Job insecurity related to AI fears is also likely higher amongst lower income earners, further reinforcing weak consumer confidence.""We suspect further mixed employment data like we got yesterday will ultimately open up greater conviction over a rate cut in March but that may only come once we have the CPI data released on Thursday. The consensus is for YoY CPI rate to remain at around 3.0% but over the coming months we expect to see signs of disinflation emerge with the tariff-related inflation pick up possibly mostly now through the data given certain import-sensitive sectors of CPI have already shown larger MoM increases.""The lack of dollar selling could also reflect the fact that Kevin Hassett is no longer the definite pick for Fed Chair position and instead both Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller are back in the running. Polymarket probabilities now have Hassett, Warsh and Waller closer to each other than before. Still, Hassett is again showing as being the favourite so the recent relief for the dollar may quickly fade."
13:28 USD/CAD approaches 1.3800 amid a broad-based USD rebound
USD/CAD trims some losses and reaches 1.3780 after bouncing from 1.3745 lows.
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The US Dollar Index, which measures the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading moderately higher as investors digest a batch of delayed US labour market reports and reassess their expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Nonfarm Payrolls data released on Tuesday revealed that net employment fell by 105K in October, before rising by a larger-than-expected 64K in November. The jobless rate, however, rose to a four-year high of 4.6% and wage growth eased to 3.5% year-on-year, from 3.7% in the previous month.Further Fed easing hopes remain aliveThese figures reflect a soft labour market and keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy further. A January rate cut is practically discarded, but the market is almost evenly split about March’s meeting ahead of Thursday’s key US Consumer Prices Index release.In Canada, BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, said that the current monetary policy is “appropriate” to keep inflation close to the 2% target, but signalled modest growth ahead, curbing hopes of any interest rate hike in the near-term.On Monday, Canada’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed that inflation remained steady at a 2.2% annual rate in November, against market expectations of an acceleration to 2.4%. The BoC’s core inflation contracted 0.1% on the month and grew at a 2.9% yearly rate, also unchanged from the previous month. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading moderately higher as investors digest a batch of delayed US labour market reports and reassess their expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Nonfarm Payrolls data released on Tuesday revealed that net employment fell by 105K in October, before rising by a larger-than-expected 64K in November. The jobless rate, however, rose to a four-year high of 4.6% and wage growth eased to 3.5% year-on-year, from 3.7% in the previous month.Further Fed easing hopes remain aliveThese figures reflect a soft labour market and keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy further. A January rate cut is practically discarded, but the market is almost evenly split about March’s meeting ahead of Thursday’s key US Consumer Prices Index release.In Canada, BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, said that the current monetary policy is “appropriate” to keep inflation close to the 2% target, but signalled modest growth ahead, curbing hopes of any interest rate hike in the near-term.On Monday, Canada’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed that inflation remained steady at a 2.2% annual rate in November, against market expectations of an acceleration to 2.4%. The BoC’s core inflation contracted 0.1% on the month and grew at a 2.9% yearly rate, also unchanged from the previous month. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
13:25 EUR/USD retreats after hitting multi-month high – BBH
EUR/USD pulled back toward 1.1700 after testing 1.1800, as Germany’s IFO business expectations dipped slightly. The euro remains supported by the ECB’s steady policy stance versus expected Fed easing, BBH FX analysts report.
EUR/USD pulled back toward 1.1700 after testing 1.1800, as Germany’s IFO business expectations dipped slightly. The euro remains supported by the ECB’s steady policy stance versus expected Fed easing, BBH FX analysts report. ECB likely to hold rates while Fed eases further"EUR/USD plunged to near 1.1700 after testing a multi-month high at 1.1800 yesterday. Germany’s IFO business expectations index dips in December (actual: 89.7, consensus: 90.5, prior: 90.5) but remains indicative of an ongoing recovery in Eurozone economic activity." "ECB is in a good place to keep rates on hold for some time while the Fed has more easing in the pipeline. As such, relative ECB/Fed policy stance underpins the uptrend in EUR/USD."
13:11 GBP: UK CPI signals strong case for BoE rate cut – MUFG
If there was any doubt about a rate cut at the BoE’s MPC meeting tomorrow then those doubts are surely gone now after this morning’s CPI data for November revealed a much weaker than expected set of data.
If there was any doubt about a rate cut at the BoE’s MPC meeting tomorrow then those doubts are surely gone now after this morning’s CPI data for November revealed a much weaker than expected set of data. The main CPI readings were all weaker than expected with the annual rate falling 0.4ppt to 3.2%, which was 0.3ppt weaker than the consensus, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.Market eyes potential 7-2 BoE vote in favor of сut"Overall services inflation fell, but by just 0.1ppt to 4.4%. Housing services and actual rents slowed but this was offset by a pick-up in travel and transport. So overall the concerns over ‘sticky’ underlying inflation pressures will still persist within the MPC. Indeed, our own estimate of the BoE’s underlying services measure (excluding certain volatile components) actually picked up from 4.0% to 4.1%.""But overall this will be viewed as a good report and will reduce overall inflation concerns especially with the jobs data showing a continued deterioration in labor demand. Prior to the jobs and inflation data this week, a 5-4 vote favoring a cut with Governor Bailey joining the voters for a cut in November was a plausible outcome. Huw Pill could well now also vote for a cut, possibly along with Clare Lombardelli meaning up to a 7-2 vote favoring a cut is possible. Megan Greene and Catherine Mann could well continue to resist given the evidence of still ‘sticky’ underlying services inflation. ""But ultimately, the BoE has more cutting still to do than most other G10 central banks. The inflation forecasts in February will be lower and another cut then seems likely. That is not priced at the moment and hence we see scope for front-end yields to move lower which will put the pound under increased downward pressure. EUR/GBP moving higher over the coming months is the likely outcome."
12:56 USD bounces after hitting ten-week low – BBH
USD recovered strongly against all major currencies after hitting a ten-week low yesterday. Gold and crude oil prices got a modest boost after the US ratchet-up pressure on Venezuela. President Donald Trump ordered a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and leaving Venezuela.
USD recovered strongly against all major currencies after hitting a ten-week low yesterday. Gold and crude oil prices got a modest boost after the US ratchet-up pressure on Venezuela. President Donald Trump ordered a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and leaving Venezuela. Global equity and bond markets are stable, BBH FX analysts report. Oil and Gold receive modest boost from Venezuela blockade"USD bounce looks more like a technical relief rally. Fundamentals still favor a lower USD. The FOMC has room to deliver the 50bps of easing priced-in by Fed funds futures over the next twelve months because US labor demand is weak and upside risks to inflation are not martializing. We anticipate USD to edge down to the lower end of its June-December range as it converges towards the level implied by US-G6 rate differentials.""Slower wage growth indicates growing labor market slack. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/m in November (consensus: 0.3%) or 3.5% y/y, the lowest annual rate since May 2021. In parallel, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked-up 0.1pts to 4.6% (consensus: 4.5%), the highest since September 2021 and above the FOMC 2025 projection of 4.5%. However, more people entered the labor force as the participation rate increased 0.1pts to 62.5%.""No policy relevant US data today. A speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on the economic outlook takes the spotlight. Waller’s shot for the Fed chair job improved this week, alongside that of Kevin Warsh, as doubts emerged over frontrunner Kevin Hassett. President Donald Trump is scheduled to interview Waller today."
12:52 Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD holds gains near $66.00 on further Fed easing hopes
Silver’s (XAG/USD) is standing comfortably at the upper range of the $65.00s on Wednesday’s European session, after having hit fresh all-time highs at $66.54 earlier today as delayed US labour figures failed to boost confidence in the US economy.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver remains above $65.50 after hitting record highs at $66.64.Weak US labour data and Fed easing hopes are supporting precious metals on Wednesday.XAG/USD’s bulls are likely to find resistance at $66.80.Silver’s (XAG/USD) is standing comfortably at the upper range of the $65.00s on Wednesday’s European session, after having hit fresh all-time highs at $66.54 earlier today as delayed US labour figures failed to boost confidence in the US economy.Nonfarm Payroll figures released on Tuesday revealed that net employment fell by 105,000 in October before posting a larger-than-expected recovery, with a 64,000 increase in November. The Unemployment rate, however, rose to a four-year high of 4.6% wage growth moderated further. These figures kept bets of a March rate cut practically unchanged, at 42%, and investors are now waiting for the release of November's US Consumer Prices Index, due on Friday, for a better assessment of the Fed's monetary easing calendar.Technical Analysis: Trendline resistance at $66.80 might cp bulls
The 4-hour chart shows the XAG/USD pair trading at $65.97, nearly 3.5% above the day's opening price. The rising trend line from $48.57 lows in mid-November underpins the bullish bias, offering support near $63.12. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive with a widening histogram, suggesting strengthening upside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 69.62, close to overbought and hinting that upside could slow. The top of the ascending channel, in the $66.80 area, is likely to challenge bulls. Further up, the next target is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the October-November rally, at $68.30, and the 70.00 level. To the downside, immediate support is at the previous all-time high, of $64.72, followed by trendline support, near $63.30, and the December 12 low, near $60.80.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The 4-hour chart shows the XAG/USD pair trading at $65.97, nearly 3.5% above the day's opening price. The rising trend line from $48.57 lows in mid-November underpins the bullish bias, offering support near $63.12. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive with a widening histogram, suggesting strengthening upside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 69.62, close to overbought and hinting that upside could slow. The top of the ascending channel, in the $66.80 area, is likely to challenge bulls. Further up, the next target is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the October-November rally, at $68.30, and the 70.00 level. To the downside, immediate support is at the previous all-time high, of $64.72, followed by trendline support, near $63.30, and the December 12 low, near $60.80.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
12:41 USD/JPY jumps higher to near 155.50 as US Dollar outperforms, BoJ decision eyed
The USD/JPY pair gains 0.55% and jumps higher to near 155.50 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its peers, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November.
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The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its peers, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% higher to near 98.60.The US Dollar trades higher as weak US employment data failed to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Fed’s interest rate expectations remain steady as market participants believe that the labour market data was distorted by the US government shutdown. The data showed on Tuesday that the Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.6% in November.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Thursday. Both the headline and the core CPI are expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 3%.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades cautiously ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday. The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75%. BoJ’s hawkish expectations are backed by the recent shift in rhetoric from Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reiterated last week that the likelihood of the “central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materializing had been gradually increasing”. Ueda added that the central bank is “getting closer to attaining its inflation target”. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Fri Dec 19, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.75% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan
12:38 Global central banks in focus this week – BNP PARIBAS
As the Fed steps back after its December rate cut, attention turns to the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week, with expectations for a BoE rate cut, a steady ECB, and a gradual BoJ hike amid resilient global growth and cautious central bank policy, B
As the Fed steps back after its December rate cut, attention turns to the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week, with expectations for a BoE rate cut, a steady ECB, and a gradual BoJ hike amid resilient global growth and cautious central bank policy, BNP PARIBAS's economists note. Resilient growth keeps banks cautious"While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the BoE, the ECB and the BoJ are holding their respective meetings this week." "The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it. These decisions come amid resilient growth performance despite shocks, which should lead central banks to remain cautious, whether in terms of easing (a residual cut expected for the BoE and none for the ECB) or raising key rates (which should remain a gradual process in Japan)." "This climate of monetary policy neutrality could be accompanied by greater pressure on long-term sovereign rates than during the period of monetary easing."
12:27 US: Labour market weakness to keep the Fed cutting – ABN AMRO
After a long drought of data, the labour market report hit hard. October payrolls fell by 105k, while November payrolls increased by 64k. Combined with a small rise in the participation rate, this led to the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, from a high 4.4% in September.
After a long drought of data, the labour market report hit hard. October payrolls fell by 105k, while November payrolls increased by 64k. Combined with a small rise in the participation rate, this led to the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, from a high 4.4% in September. Part of this might be due to misreporting from furloughed workers during the government shutdown, which would be temporary, ABN AMRO's Rogier Quaedvlieg Senior Economist reports. US jobs data shows weakness amid shutdown noise"Still, the government also fundamentally lost workers. As suggested in our week ahead preview, October saw large DOGE cuts, at 162k federal job losses, while November saw an additional 6k. November data shows that hiring was supported by construction and health care services. Manufacturing payrolls are at their lowest level since March 2022, in contrast to the stated goals of the Trump administration's industrial policy.""Overall, the new data suggests a continuously weakening labour market. While the uptick in participation rate is a positive sign, the contraction in hiring and slowing of hourly earnings growth point to weakness. Real earnings growth is only moderately positive. This is bad news in terms of affordability, but good news in terms of second round inflation effects, which might provide the Fed with some more leeway to focus on the labour market side of the mandate.""We should note that all of this data is even more noisy than usual. Data collection was impacted by the government shutdown and large revisions are likely. Still, data continues to evolve in line with further rate cuts over the course of next year. We still expect a pause in January but expect moderate headline inflation and a continuously weakening labour market to tilt the balance towards another 75bps of gradual easing over the course of the year."
12:21 DXY: US jobs data confirms downside risks – ING
Combined October and November US jobs data reinforced downside risks to the labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.6%, while markets now await Fed’s Christopher Waller’s speech for further clues ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Combined October and November US jobs data reinforced downside risks to the labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.6%, while markets now await Fed’s Christopher Waller’s speech for further clues ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Fed’s Waller to speak on economic outlook"The combined release yesterday of October and November jobs data did not alter the Fed's narrative that the risk to the US labour market is on the downside. Notable was the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. While Chair Powell has said that data releases will be distorted by the government shutdown, he has also spent much time positioning the unemployment rate as the best read on the supply-demand imbalance in the US labour market. The 4.6% rate is now higher than the median rate (4.5%) expected by FOMC members for the end of 2025.""There is no significant US data today, but we do have a speech on the economic outlook from the Fed's Christopher Waller. He speaks at 14:15 CET. While belatedly favouring the rate cut we saw last week, we have also seen him questioning whether US consumption converges on the soft labour market or whether the US jobs market converges upwards on resilient consumption. That question may well remain unresolved after yesterday's data, as October retail sales were quite strong. ""DXY has support at 97.80/85. But unless Waller reaches some quite dovish conclusions, this support level probably holds into Thursday's European Central Bank meeting."
12:11 USD softens after payrolls – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) eased around the November payrolls report, which highlighted ongoing labor market weakness but lacked the severity to shift rate cut expectations, keeping the Fed’s easing bias intact ahead of Thursday’s CPI release.
US Dollar (USD) eased around the November payrolls report, which highlighted ongoing labor market weakness but lacked the severity to shift rate cut expectations, keeping the Fed’s easing bias intact ahead of Thursday’s CPI release. Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen around 98.58 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Fed easing bias remains intact"USD traded somewhat offered around the release of payrolls data but subsequently pared losses into NY close. Report continued to point to further weakness in labour market, reinforcing Fed’s easing bias. That said, the report was mixed and not dramatically weak enough to add to rate cut expectations. Markets still implied only 24% probability of a Jan cut while markets expectation for cumulative cut for 2026 was largely stable at -58bps." "Focus now shifts to Nov CPI report scheduled for release on Thursday. Another underwhelming print should weigh on USD. On Fedspeaks overnight, Goolsbee told CNN in an interview that he is pretty optimistic that the economy will sustain at a stabilized rate that’s pretty decent, and if it can do that and inflation is headed down to something like 2%, I think rates can go down." "Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell to oversold conditions. Some consolidation is not ruled out in the interim. Support at 97.90, 97.60 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 99.10/20 levels (21, 50, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low) and 99.80 levels (61.8% fibo)."
12:00 Eurozone Labor Cost Index came in at 3.3% below forecasts (3.5%) in 3Q
Eurozone Labor Cost Index came in at 3.3% below forecasts (3.5%) in 3Q
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -0.5% (November)
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -0.5% (November)
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1% below forecasts (2.2%) in November
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.1% below forecasts (2.2%) in November
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.4%) in November
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.4%) in November
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.3%) in November
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.3%) in November
11:39 HUF: Hungary Central Bank turns dovish – ING
Hungary’s central bank kept rates unchanged but struck a notably dovish tone, opening the door to rate cuts and pushing markets to price in deeper easing, with EUR/HUF facing renewed upside pressure, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.
Hungary’s central bank kept rates unchanged but struck a notably dovish tone, opening the door to rate cuts and pushing markets to price in deeper easing, with EUR/HUF facing renewed upside pressure, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.EUR/HUF upside risks build"The National Bank of Hungary left rates unchanged at 6.50% yesterday, as expected. The new forecast brought a dovish shift, with inflation moving from 3.8% to 3.2% on average next year and, at the same time, worsening the economic outlook. However, the main surprise came from the press conference and the dovish tone of Governor Mihaly Varga. The Governor mentioned that he will evaluate new data on a meeting-by-meeting basis and, if the numbers are favourable, the central bank will be ready to cut rates.""Although the market was preparing for a possible dovish tone, the central bank managed to surprise. Rate markets have priced in an additional 10bp of rate cuts next year for a total of 60bp and the terminal rate has fallen to 5.72% in 2027. Given the central bank’s dovish tone yesterday and our updated forecast, we see room for the market to price in more rate cuts, particularly if inflation numbers continue to surprise on the weaker side.""The HUF reversed all earlier gains yesterday and is weakening slightly, but we still believe that EUR/HUF will go up in the coming days. The rate differential vs EUR is heading towards the narrowest levels since May, indicating upside for EUR/HUF in the range of 386-388. On the other hand, the dovish turn comes in favourable conditions for the central bank. The region is receiving support from growing hopes for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, from which HUF would benefit the most within the CEE region, in our view, and EUR/USD is testing new highs. If the trend does not turn in these two stories, it will mitigate the upside risk in EUR/HUF and the central bank may feel the market support in a dovish direction looking forward."
11:30 United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.7%, below expectations (2.4%) in October
United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.7%, below expectations (2.4%) in October
11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.76 per troy ounce, up 3.29% from the $63.67 it cost on Tuesday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $65.76 per troy ounce, up 3.29% from the $63.67 it cost on Tuesday.Silver prices have increased by 127.60% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce65.761 Gram2.11The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 65.70 on Wednesday, down from 67.61 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:26 European Gas prices extend losses – ING
European Gas prices remain under pressure as mild weather weighs on demand, but below-average EU storage levels and a heavily short-positioned market could provide support if colder conditions materialize later this month, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
European Gas prices remain under pressure as mild weather weighs on demand, but below-average EU storage levels and a heavily short-positioned market could provide support if colder conditions materialize later this month, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Colder outlook offers support"European natural Gas prices continued to come under pressure yesterday, with the Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 2.4% lower. Milder weather weighed on the market. However, forecasts show that weather is set to turn colder than usual later in the month, which should provide some support to prices." "Particularly when you consider that EU Gas storage is below average, at 69% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 78%. The record-large gross short that investment funds hold in TTF continues to pose a risk."
11:20 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains in corrective phase ahead of NZ Q3 GDP data
The NZD/USD pair trades 0.15% lower to near 0.5775 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recovers sharply, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November.
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The Kiwi pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) recovers sharply, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.33% higher to near 98.50.The US Dollar gains even as the US NFP report showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest reading seen since September 2021. Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Thursday.Though investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the latter is outperforming its other peers ahead of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data scheduled for Thursday. The data is expected to show that the New Zealand (NZ) economy expanded by 0.9% after declining at the same pace in the second quarter.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisNZD/USD is down 0.15% near 0.5775. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5753 underpins a bullish bias. A pullback in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 58 from overbought levels suggests the pair is going through a corrective phase, while the overall momentum remains bullish. Initial support is at the 20-day EMA at 0.5753; however, a break below it could trigger further correction toward the December low of 0.5711. Whereas a sustained trade above the December 11 high of 0.5832 would clear further upside towards the round-level figure of 0.5900.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in New Zealand during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of New Zealand’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Dec 17, 2025 21:45 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.9% Previous: -0.9% Source: Stats NZ Why it matters to traders? The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics New Zealand, highlights the overall economic performance on a quarterly basis. The gauge has a significant influence on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision, in turn affecting the New Zealand dollar. A rise in the GDP rate signifies improvement in the economic conditions, which calls for tighter monetary policy, while a drop suggests deterioration in the activity. An above-forecast GDP reading is seen as NZD bullish.
11:08 Brent slides toward key support – Société Générale
Brent remains under pressure below its 50-day moving average near $63, with prices drifting toward key support at $58.40 and risks skewed to a deeper extension of the downtrend if this level fails, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Brent remains under pressure below its 50-day moving average near $63, with prices drifting toward key support at $58.40 and risks skewed to a deeper extension of the downtrend if this level fails, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Downtrend momentum persists"Brent has struggled to break above the 50-DMA (currently near $63) since October, leading to a steady decline. It is now approaching the April/May lows around $58.40, which may act as an interim support. However, there are no clear signals of a meaningful rebound yet." "The moving average near $63 is likely to cap short-term upside. Failure to hold $58.40 is likely to extend the downtrend toward the next projections at $56 and $54/53."
11:04 South Korea: Caught in the crosswinds – Standard Chartered
Korea’s 2026 macro outlook is likely to be driven more by domestic demand than in 2025. However, external financial conditions could pose a barrier to domestic performance. Financial stability concerns are likely to limit monetary and fiscal policy flexibility.
Korea’s 2026 macro outlook is likely to be driven more by domestic demand than in 2025. However, external financial conditions could pose a barrier to domestic performance. Financial stability concerns are likely to limit monetary and fiscal policy flexibility. The government’s role in risk management will be important to contain chronic financial issues, Standard Chartered's economist Chong Hoon Park reports. A more balanced growth profile"Korea’s 2026 economic outlook points to a more balanced growth profile compared to 2025, when activity was largely driven by exports and the global semiconductor cycle. We expect domestic demand to contribute more meaningfully to growth, alongside continued export performance, reflecting a likely cyclical recovery in consumption and construction investment. Exports – particularly AI-related outbound investment and semiconductor shipments – will remain an important stabiliser, but no longer the dominant growth engine, in our view.""We forecast c.2.0% GDP growth in 2026, improving from our estimated 1.0% in 2025. Private consumption should recover gradually, supported by wealth effects from a firmer equity market and easing negative base effects on real incomes. Construction investment is likely to rebound following a prolonged contraction, reflecting the fading of unusually strong negative base effects rather than a renewed structural upswing. As such, we expect the recovery to remain cyclical rather than structural. Exports should continue to support growth, but their incremental contribution may moderate given strong base effects from 2025. This should allow domestic demand to play a larger role in the growth mix, likely resulting in more balanced expansion than in recent years.""However, this outlook might unfold within a demanding global financial environment, defined by three forces: persistent US inflation, ongoing global fiscal expansion, and continued competition for global USD liquidity. While we do not think these factors will overturn Korea’s balanced-growth narrative, they could shape the financial conditions under which the economic recovery proceeds, and constrain policy flexibility."
11:02 EUR/USD pauses near 1.18 target – ING
EUR/USD has stalled near 1.1800, with heavy option expiries likely to keep the pair range-bound as markets await potential direction from this week’s ECB meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD has stalled near 1.1800, with heavy option expiries likely to keep the pair range-bound as markets await potential direction from this week’s ECB meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.ECB meeting poses event risk"EUR/USD briefly touched our long-standing year-end target at 1.1800 yesterday and has since receded. We note that approximately $10bn worth of option expiries are due to fall over the next week, with strike levels between 1.1750 and 1.1800. This suggests EUR/USD could hang around these levels for a while." "As mentioned yesterday, the supply-driven fall in energy prices is good news for the euro, but EUR/USD will face some event risk in the form of Thursday's ECB meeting. Here the hawkish comments from the ECB's Isabel Schabel really reverberated through FX and rates markets last week." "Should she be exposed as a hawkish outlier on Thursday and eurozone growth forecasts be revised insufficiently higher, then the euro could get hit."
11:01 Germany IFO – Expectations came in at 89.7, below expectations (90.5) in December
Germany IFO – Expectations came in at 89.7, below expectations (90.5) in December
11:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate registered at 87.6, below expectations (88.2) in December
Germany IFO – Business Climate registered at 87.6, below expectations (88.2) in December
11:00 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests upper descending wedge boundary near 1.3800
USD/CAD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3780 during the European hours on Wednesday. The daily chart suggests a potential upside breakout, with falling, converging trendlines forming a bullish descending wedge pattern.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD could find primary support at the four-month low of 1.3721.The 14-day RSI at 33 stays below its midline, rebounding from oversold levels but limiting upside momentum.The pair tests the upper descending wedge boundary near 1.3790, followed by the 1.3800.USD/CAD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3780 during the European hours on Wednesday. The daily chart suggests a potential upside breakout, with falling, converging trendlines forming a bullish descending wedge pattern.However, the USD/CAD pair stays under the descending nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish bias. The short-term average remains below the 50-day EMA, keeping sellers in control.Moving averages slope lower, and price action remains capped by the nine-day EMA, signaling a persistent downtrend. A recovery through the short-term average could trigger a corrective bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 remains below its midline after rebounding from oversold but capping upside momentum.The initial support appears at the four-month low of 1.3721, followed by the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 1.3710. Further support lies at the psychological level of 1.3700. A break below this level would put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to navigate the region around 1.3539, the lowest level since October 2024.On the upside, the USD/CAD pair tests the upper descending wedge boundary around 1.3790, followed by the psychological level of 1.3800 and the nine-day EMA at 1.3811. A break above this confluence resistance zone could trigger a rebound and support the pair to target the 50-day EMA at 1.3928. Further barrier lies at the three-week high of 1.4014.USD/CAD: Daily Chart Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.25% 0.74% 0.45% 0.15% 0.20% 0.19% 0.32% EUR -0.25% 0.50% 0.18% -0.10% -0.05% -0.06% 0.07% GBP -0.74% -0.50% -0.29% -0.60% -0.54% -0.55% -0.42% JPY -0.45% -0.18% 0.29% -0.30% -0.25% -0.27% -0.13% CAD -0.15% 0.10% 0.60% 0.30% 0.05% 0.04% 0.17% AUD -0.20% 0.05% 0.54% 0.25% -0.05% -0.01% 0.12% NZD -0.19% 0.06% 0.55% 0.27% -0.04% 0.00% 0.13% CHF -0.32% -0.07% 0.42% 0.13% -0.17% -0.12% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
11:00 Germany IFO – Current Assessment below forecasts (85.7) in December: Actual (85.6)
Germany IFO – Current Assessment below forecasts (85.7) in December: Actual (85.6)
10:56 Oil sell-off deepens as Brent breaks below $60 – ING
Oil prices slid sharply as surplus fears intensified, pushing Brent below $60 per barrel, though supply risks and falling US Crude inventories offered limited near-term support, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Oil prices slid sharply as surplus fears intensified, pushing Brent below $60 per barrel, though supply risks and falling US Crude inventories offered limited near-term support, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US Crude stocks fall sharply"The Oil market sell-off accelerated yesterday. ICE Brent is settling 2.7% lower, breaking below US$60/bbl to its lowest level since February 2021. This pressure comes from a growing surplus outlook. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will undoubtedly add to the downward pressure. As our Oil balance shows, the peak of the surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026. However, with every quarter of next year in surplus, inventories should grow throughout 2026, putting further pressure on Oil prices.""There are clear supply risks to our view. Russian risks are well telegraphed, but there are clear risks to the Venezuelan Oil supply. Oil prices have bounced higher in early-morning trading today (WTI up around 1.3% at the time of writing), after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned Oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This follows the US seizing an Oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week. Venezuela exported around 600k b/d of Oil in November. It’s likely that these volumes will fall given the latest developments. The bulk of this Oil is shipped to China.""American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory numbers released overnight were also supportive of the market. US Crude Oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 9.3m barrels over the last week. Meanwhile, refined product inventory changes were more bearish, with gasoline and distillate fuel Oil stocks increasing by 4.8m barrels and 2.5m barrels, respectively."
10:38 EUR/USD retreats as investors digest mixed US employment figures
EUR/USD is pulling back from nearly three-month highs above 1.1800, trading at 1.1710 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar (USD) regains lost ground.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro pulls back from 1.1800 highs against the US Dollar and nears 1.1700.US labour data keeps hopes of further Fed monetary easing alive.EUR/USD is correcting lower as the focus shifts to the ECB's monetary policy.EUR/USD is pulling back from nearly three-month highs above 1.1800, trading at 1.1710 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar (USD) regains lost ground. The Greenback fell after the release of a backlog of delayed US labour figures on Tuesday, but is picking up on Wednesday, with investors pondering the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next monetary policy steps.Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that employment fell sharply in October before increasing more than expected in November, while the Unemployment Rate in November increased to a four-year high, and wage growth moderated. These figures should be taken with caution, as the US government shutdown might have distorted the data. However, the big picture continues to show a stalled labor market, which maintains investors' hopes of a March interest rate cut by the Fed intact, as shown by the CME Group Fedwatch tool.In the economic calendar on Wednesday, the final reading of the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is unlikely to trigger any significant volatility, as markets await the outcome of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting and US consumer Inflation figures, both due on Thursday. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.33% 0.59% 0.39% 0.17% 0.27% 0.30% 0.32% EUR -0.33% 0.28% 0.07% -0.13% -0.07% -0.03% -0.01% GBP -0.59% -0.28% -0.21% -0.42% -0.32% -0.31% -0.27% JPY -0.39% -0.07% 0.21% -0.22% -0.12% -0.09% -0.07% CAD -0.17% 0.13% 0.42% 0.22% 0.10% 0.12% 0.15% AUD -0.27% 0.07% 0.32% 0.12% -0.10% 0.03% 0.05% NZD -0.30% 0.03% 0.31% 0.09% -0.12% -0.03% 0.02% CHF -0.32% 0.01% 0.27% 0.07% -0.15% -0.05% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: Euro corrects lower ahead of the ECB meetingThe Euro (EUR) is correcting lower with investors awaiting the conclusion of the ECB's monetary policy meeting due on Thursday. The bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, and investors will be looking for confirmation that the monetary easing cycle has come to an end.In the US on Tuesday, delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a 105,000 net decline in employment in October and a 64,000 increase in November, this last beating expectations of a 50K increment. The Unemployment Rate, on the other hand, increased to 4.6%, from 4.4% in September, and wage growth moderated to a 3.5% year-on-year rate in November from 3.7% in October.Also on Tuesday, data from the US Commerce Department revealed that Retail Sales stalled in October, following a 0.1% increase in September, and against market expectations of another 0.1% rise. Excluding automobiles, sales of all other products rose 0.4% MoM.In the Eurozone, preliminary business activity data disappointed. The preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.2 in December from 49.6 in the previous month, and Services activity slowed down to 52.6 from 53.6 in November.On Wednesday's economic calendar, the Eurozone's HICP is expected to confirm the preliminary figures showing that inflation contracted 0.3% in November and accelerated to a 2.2% year-on-year pace, from 2.1% in October. In the US, the focus will be on the speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, which might give further hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bears focus on 1.1685EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
The EUR/USD pair has been rejected at the 1.1800 and is going through a bearish correction, with sellers targeting the 1.1685 area, where the December 11 low meets the trendline support from November 20 lows.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned sharply lower after crossing below the signal line, which highlights a growing negative momentum.The mentioned 1.1685 level is a key support to maintain the broader bullish trend intact. A confirmation below here would clear the path towards the December 9 low, at 1.1615, ahead of the December 1 and 2 lows, near 1.1590. To the upside, the pair should return above the broken support around 1.1720 (December 12 low) to shift the focus towards Tuesday's high, near 1.1800, and the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/USD pair has been rejected at the 1.1800 and is going through a bearish correction, with sellers targeting the 1.1685 area, where the December 11 low meets the trendline support from November 20 lows.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned sharply lower after crossing below the signal line, which highlights a growing negative momentum.The mentioned 1.1685 level is a key support to maintain the broader bullish trend intact. A confirmation below here would clear the path towards the December 9 low, at 1.1615, ahead of the December 1 and 2 lows, near 1.1590. To the upside, the pair should return above the broken support around 1.1720 (December 12 low) to shift the focus towards Tuesday's high, near 1.1800, and the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:12 Pound Sterling slumps as UK inflation falls by more than expected to 3.2%
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces intense selling pressure against its major currency peers on Wednesday and slides over 0.5% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD), following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November.
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This is the second straight month in which headline inflation has grown at a slower pace after remaining stable at 3.8% in the July-September period, bolstering hopes that price pressures are on track to return to the desired rate of 2%.In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – rose at a moderate pace of 3.2%, compared to expectations and the previous release of 3.4%.Month-on-month headline inflation deflated by 0.2%, while it was expected to remain flat after rising 0.4% in October. Inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by Bank of England (BoE) officials, decelerated to 4.4% from the prior reading of 4.5%.This week, the UK’s employment data for the three months ending in October came in weaker than projected. In the period, the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1%, the highest reading in almost five years.The overall data showing cooling inflationary pressures and rising labor market concerns strengthen hopes of an interest rate cut by the BoE at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling retraces sharply against US DollarThe Pound Sterling corrects sharply to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday’s European session after revisiting the two-month high above 1.3450 the preivious day. The GBP/USD pair has come under pressure due to a higher-than-projected slowdown in the UK inflation data and a decent recovery move in the US Dollar.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.4% higher to near 98.60. The DXY recovered sharply on Tuesday after posting a fresh 10-week low near 98.00, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) combined report for October and November.The US Dollar attracted significant bids even as the US NFP report showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest figure seen since September 2021. The report also showed that the economy added 64K fresh workers in November after shedding 105K jobs in October.Theoretically, rising US labor market concerns lead to a surge in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, there has not been a notable change in the Fed’s dovish expectations as market experts believe that the overall data was distorted by the historically longest US government shutdown in that period.Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range in its monetary policy meeting in January.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Thursday. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, as officials have expressed that further interest rate cuts could prompt price pressures, which have remained well above the 2% target for a long period."Moving monetary policy near or into accommodative territory, which further Federal Funds Rate cuts will do, risks exacerbating already elevated inflation and untethering the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers," Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic wrote in an essay published by the Atlanta Fed, adding that "That is not a risk I would choose to take right now,"Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keeps upward bias amid easing bullish momentumGBP/USD declines to near 1.3340 on Wednesday. Still, the short-term bias of the pair remains upward as the price holds above an ascending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 1.3305. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to 56 after failing to reach overbought conditions, suggesting signs of a bearish reversal.Measured from the 1.3791 high to the 1.3008 low, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3399 acts as immediate resistance. A daily closing below the 38.2% retracement at 1.3307 could weaken the overall tone and pave the way for further downside towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3200.Looking up, a sustained closing above Tuesday's high at 1.3456 would open the door towards the psychological level of 1.3500.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:02 Austria HICP (YoY) below expectations (4.1%) in November: Actual (4%)
Austria HICP (YoY) below expectations (4.1%) in November: Actual (4%)
10:01 Austria HICP (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in November: Actual (0.2%)
Austria HICP (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in November: Actual (0.2%)
10:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.1% in November
South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.1% in November
10:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.5% below forecasts (3.6%) in November
South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.5% below forecasts (3.6%) in November
09:59 EUR/GBP rises toward 0.8800 following UK CPI, Germany’s IFO Survey data awaited
EUR/GBP recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 0.8780 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross gains ground as the Pound Sterling (GBP) declines following the release of weaker Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United Kingdom (UK) for November.
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The currency cross gains ground as the Pound Sterling (GBP) declines following the release of weaker Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United Kingdom (UK) for November.The UK headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) in November, above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% inflation target. Markets predicted a 3.5% growth in the reported period against the rise of 3.6% in October. Meanwhile, the monthly UK CPI arrived at -0.2% in November, versus a rise of 0.4% reported in October.The UK core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) rose 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) in the same period, compared to October’s 3.4% print and came in softer than the forecast of 3.4%. The annual Retail Price Index came in at 3.8% in November, against the expected and previous reading of 4.3%.Weaker data reinforced the dovish expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, as rising unemployment and economic stagnation ease inflation pressures.Traders will likely watch Germany’s IFO Business Survey, followed by Eurozone core HICP data later in the day. The Euro (EUR) gains ground as investors scale back European Central Bank (ECB) easing expectations after officials signaled further cuts may not be needed in 2026. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Dec 17, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.2% Consensus: 3.5% Previous: 3.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
09:36 Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (4.75%)
Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (4.75%)
09:30 When is the German IFO Survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?
Germany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for December on Wednesday at 09:00 GMT.
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The German IFO Survey OverviewGermany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for December on Wednesday at 09:00 GMT.The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to tick higher to 88.2 this month, from a 88.1 reading in November.The Current Assessment Index is forecast to edge up to 85.7 in December from 85.6, while the Expectations Index is seen easing to 90.5 from 90.6.How could the German IFO Survey affect EUR/USD?EUR/USD may limit its downside if the IFO Business Survey data comes out as expected. The Euro may gain if data comes stronger-than-expected, which could reinforce cautious sentiment after European Central Bank (ECB) officials signaled cuts may not be needed in 2026. Traders will likely observe the Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data later in the day.The EUR/USD pair may remain subdued as the US Dollar (USD) rises after mixed US labor market data for November did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 75.6% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 74% a week ago.Technically, the EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1710 at the time of writing. However, the bullish bias prevails as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, strengthening the bullish bias. The pair may approach the 12-month high of 1.1804, reached on December 16. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1702, aligned with the psychological level of 1.1700. Further declines would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.1636. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:17 GBP/JPY faces rejection near 208.00, slides to fresh daily low on weaker UK CPI print
The GBP/JPY cross meets with some supply following an intraday uptick to the 208.00 neighborhood on Wednesday in reaction to softer UK inflation figures.
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Spot prices drop to a fresh daily low, around the 207.30 area during the early European session and for now, seem to have stalled the previous day's recovery move from an over one-week low.The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.2% over the year in November, marking a notable slowdown from 3.6% in October and missing expectations for a reading of 3.5%. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy items, climbed 3.2% YoY during the reported month, compared to consensus estimates and October's 3.4% print. The data reaffirms market bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates on Thursday, which, in turn, weighs on the British Pound (GBP) and exerts some downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross.The Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative outperformance could further be attributed to the growing acceptance of an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Friday. The bets were lifted by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments last week, saying that the likelihood of the central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materialising had been gradually increasing. Ueda added that the BoJ is getting closer to attaining its inflation target, backing the case for further policy normalization. Apart from this, a weaker tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor benefiting the safe-haven JPY.The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the downside. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risks – the BoE rate decision on Thursday and the latest BoJ policy update on Friday. The latter will play a key role in influencing the near-term JPY price dynamics amid concerns about Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition on the back of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's massive spending plan and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the currency pair. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Dec 17, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.2% Consensus: 3.5% Previous: 3.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
09:02 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a in line with expectations (0.1%) in November
United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a in line with expectations (0.1%) in November
09:01 United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a down to 0% in November from previous 0.1%
United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a down to 0% in November from previous 0.1%
09:01 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) down to -0.5% in November from previous 0.3%
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) down to -0.5% in November from previous 0.3%
09:01 United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a : 3.5% (November) vs previous 3.6%
United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a : 3.5% (November) vs previous 3.6%
09:01 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.8%, below expectations (4.3%) in November
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.8%, below expectations (4.3%) in November
09:01 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.5%) in November: Actual (3.2%)
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.5%) in November: Actual (3.2%)
09:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a above expectations (0.2%) in November: Actual (0.3%)
United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a above expectations (0.2%) in November: Actual (0.3%)
09:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a dipped from previous 3.6% to 3.4% in November
United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a dipped from previous 3.6% to 3.4% in November
09:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a came in at 1.1%, above forecasts (0.4%) in November
United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a came in at 1.1%, above forecasts (0.4%) in November
09:00 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0%) in November: Actual (-0.2%)
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0%) in November: Actual (-0.2%)
09:00 United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.4%) in November: Actual (3.2%)
United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.4%) in November: Actual (3.2%)
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to -0.4% in November
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to -0.4% in November
08:12 Japan’s Takaichi urges to boost capacity with proactive fiscal policy
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policy to strengthen Japan's capabilities, rather than excessive fiscal tightening.
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policy to strengthen Japan's capabilities, rather than excessive fiscal tightening.Key quotesWhat's necessary for Japan now is to strengthen its capacity with proactive fiscal policy, not excessive fiscal tightening.
We will achieve sustainable fiscal policy, social welfare system by reflating economy, improving corporate profits, increase household income via wage gains that then boosts tax revenues.
What we foresee is strategic fiscal spending, not reckless expansion. Elsewhere, former BoJ deputy governor, Masazumi Wakatabe stated that Japan must raise neutral rate of interest via fiscal policy, growth strategy.Neutral interest rate will rise if demand for funds increase.
If Japan's neutral rate rises as a result of fiscal policy, growth strategy, it would be natural for BoJ to raise interest rates.
BoJ should avoid premature rate hike, excessive adjustment of monetary support in light of neutral rate level.
Sanaenomics carries over elements of abenomics but focuses more on strengthening supply side of economy. Market reactionThe USD/JPY pair is gaining 0.24% on the day to trade at 155.17 at the press time. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
We will achieve sustainable fiscal policy, social welfare system by reflating economy, improving corporate profits, increase household income via wage gains that then boosts tax revenues.
What we foresee is strategic fiscal spending, not reckless expansion. Elsewhere, former BoJ deputy governor, Masazumi Wakatabe stated that Japan must raise neutral rate of interest via fiscal policy, growth strategy.Neutral interest rate will rise if demand for funds increase.
If Japan's neutral rate rises as a result of fiscal policy, growth strategy, it would be natural for BoJ to raise interest rates.
BoJ should avoid premature rate hike, excessive adjustment of monetary support in light of neutral rate level.
Sanaenomics carries over elements of abenomics but focuses more on strengthening supply side of economy. Market reactionThe USD/JPY pair is gaining 0.24% on the day to trade at 155.17 at the press time. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:05 Forex Today: US Dollar rebounds, focus shifts to UK inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 17:
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Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 17:The US Dollar (USD) holds its ground early Wednesday as markets reassess the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook after the employment data. In the early European session, November inflation data from the UK will be watched closely by market participants ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) policy announcements due Thursday. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% -0.06% -0.45% 0.03% 0.43% 0.40% 0.05% EUR -0.08% -0.14% -0.55% -0.06% 0.37% 0.32% -0.02% GBP 0.06% 0.14% -0.27% 0.08% 0.51% 0.46% 0.09% JPY 0.45% 0.55% 0.27% 0.49% 0.89% 0.84% 0.70% CAD -0.03% 0.06% -0.08% -0.49% 0.41% 0.38% 0.13% AUD -0.43% -0.37% -0.51% -0.89% -0.41% -0.05% -0.40% NZD -0.40% -0.32% -0.46% -0.84% -0.38% 0.05% -0.37% CHF -0.05% 0.02% -0.09% -0.70% -0.13% 0.40% 0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its official employment report for the first time since the US government reopened. The publication showed that Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000 in October and rose by 64,000 in November. The Unemployment Rate in November edged higher to 4.6% from 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation softened to 3.5% from 3.7% in this period. The USD Index declined to its lowest level since early October below 98.00 with the initial reaction before recovering a large portion of its losses later in the American session. Early Wednesday, the USD Index rises toward 98.50. In the second half of the day, several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches.After rising more than 0.3% on Tuesday, GBP/USD reversed its direction early Wednesday and declined below 1.3400. Annual inflation in the UK, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is forecast to soften to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in October.EUR/USD climbed above 1.1800 for the first time since late September on Tuesday but lost its bullish momentum. The pair corrects lower and trades below 1.1750 in the European morning on Wednesday. Later in the session, IFO business sentiment data from Germany will be featured in the European economic calendar. Additionally, Eurostat will release revisions to November inflation data. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce rate decisions and publish the revised macroeconomic projections.USD/JPY closed the second consecutive day in negative territory on Tuesday before staging a rebound. At the time of press, the pair was up 0.3% on the day at 155.15.After failing to find direction on Tuesday, Gold gains traction early Wednesday and gains about 0.7% on the day near $4,330. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
07:54 USD/CHF gains ground above 0.7950 amid US Dollar strength
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.7960 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a rebound in the US Dollar (USD). However, the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next year could weigh on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).
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A surge in the US Unemployment Rate kept pressure on the Fed to rescue the labor market by cutting interest rates.Uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could boost the safe-haven asset like the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory around 0.7960 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a rebound in the US Dollar (USD). However, the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next year could weigh on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Quarterly Bulletin for the fourth quarter is due later in the day. Also, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are set to speak. Data released on Tuesday showed the labor market remained soft, leaving investors on edge about when the next rate cut is likely to come. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 64,000 in November, compared to a fall of 105,000 in October. This figure came in better than the estimates of 50,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate in the US climbed to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in October.Fed officials are split over whether more easing of monetary policy is needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Uncertainty and the risk of US military action in Venezuela could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc. Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, per Reuters. His action came after the Trump administration detained a supertanker last week, and Washington has ordered a huge buildup of US military forces off the Venezuelan coast in an operation said to target drug smuggling. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:27 When is the UK CPI inflation data and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
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The UK CPI OverviewThe United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.The UK headline Consumer Price Index is forecast to have eased to a 3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in November from the 3.6% seen in October. Meanwhile, Monthly inflation is expected to be flat at 0% after rising 0.4% in October.The UK core CPI, considered more relevant for the central bank, as it strips off the seasonal impact of food and energy prices, is expected to remain consistent at a 3.4% YoY rise in November.How could the UK CPI affect GBP/USD?GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations. However, any upside surprise could cap losses by tempering dovish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, as rising unemployment and economic stagnation ease inflation pressures. Traders will also observe UK Retail Sales and PPI Core Output data.The GBP/USD pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) advances after mixed US labor market data for November did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 74.4% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago.Technically, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3390 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis points to a sustained bullish bias, with the pair holding within an ascending channel and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The pair may explore the resistance region around the 13-week high of 1.3536. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3662, followed by the psychological level of 1.3300, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.3295. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:27 USD/INR corrects as RBI intervenes to support Indian Rupee
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains sharply against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair plunges over 1% to near 90.00 from its all-time high of 91.56 due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention in the spot and Non-deliverable Forward (NDF) markets.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee bounces back from its record lows against the US Dollar, following the RBI’s intervention.FIIs have remained net sellers in seven months so far this year.The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady in the January 2026 meeting.The Indian Rupee (INR) gains sharply against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair plunges over 1% to near 90.00 from its all-time high of 91.56 due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention in the spot and Non-deliverable Forward (NDF) markets.State-run banks were spotted offering US dollars aggressively, most likely on behalf of the RBI, three traders told Reuters.The RBI was expected to intervene to support the domestic currency, which has remained the worst-performing Asian currency against the US Dollar, and is down almost 6.45% so far this year.The continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market is due to the absence of a trade announcement between the United States (US) and India. The ongoing US-Indian trade stalemate has also increased demand for US Dollars by Indian importers, resulting in weakness in the Indian Rupee.So far this year, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in seven out of 11 months. In December, FIIs have offloaded stake in the Indian equity market worth Rs. 23,455.75 crore.On the monetary policy front, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated in an interview with Financial Times (FT) that interest rates will “remain low for a longer period”. Malhotra added that the recent headline Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure "was surprising", which led the central bank to "improve its forecasting". He further added that the impact of the US-India trade deal could be as much as 0.5% on the overall GDP.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar bounces back after release of key domestic dataThe US Dollar extends its Tuesday’s recovery move during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours, even as weak US data has escalated concerns over the economic outlook. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% higher to near 98.40. The USD Index rebounded on Tuesday after posting a fresh eight-week low near 98.00.On Wednesday, the combined Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% lately, the highest figure seen since September 2021. The report also showed that the economy shed 105K jobs in October before creating 64K fresh in November.Apart from the labour market data, Retail Sales data for October and preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December remained weak. Month-on-month Retail Sales turned out flat, while they were expected to grow steadily by 0.1%. Meanwhile, flash private sector activity data grew at a moderate pace. The Composite PMI landed at 53.0, sharply lower than 54.2 in November.While the US data has prompted economic concerns, market experts believe that it is unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy expectations, as the data was distorted by the government shutdown.Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the January 2026 policy meeting.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Thursday.Technical Analysis: USD/INR finds cushion near 20-day EMAIn the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.5370. Price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), preserving a bullish bias. The average continues to ascend and now stands at 90.1278. The RSI at 59.23, above the 50 midline, confirms positive momentum after unwinding from recent overbought readings. Initial support is at the 20-EMA at 90.1278; sustained trade above this gauge keeps the topside favored.Trend conditions remain firm, though momentum has moderated as the RSI pulled back from the 70s to 59.23. Pullbacks would remain in check while USD/INR defends the moving-average base, with a support zone across the 20-EMA cluster at 89.9556–89.8364. A daily close below that area would tilt the bias toward consolidation, whereas maintaining bids above it would leave scope for an extension higher.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
06:47 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens below 1.1750 amid ECB rate hold expectations
The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1730 during the early European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.
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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1732. The 100-EMA nudges higher at 1.1611, with price holding above it and sustaining an upward bias. The 20-period average inside the Bollinger bands advances near 1.1639, supporting shallow pullbacks. Price leans toward the upper band, and the bands are widening, indicating firm bullish pressure alongside rising volatility.RSI at 65.58 shows solid bullish momentum while not yet overbought. Immediate resistance stands at the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1788, whereas support is set at the middle band at 1.1639 and the 100-EMA at 1.1611. A break higher could open the door to an extension of the advance, while failure to clear resistance would keep the pair capped and invite a retracement toward support.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1732. The 100-EMA nudges higher at 1.1611, with price holding above it and sustaining an upward bias. The 20-period average inside the Bollinger bands advances near 1.1639, supporting shallow pullbacks. Price leans toward the upper band, and the bands are widening, indicating firm bullish pressure alongside rising volatility.RSI at 65.58 shows solid bullish momentum while not yet overbought. Immediate resistance stands at the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1788, whereas support is set at the middle band at 1.1639 and the 100-EMA at 1.1611. A break higher could open the door to an extension of the advance, while failure to clear resistance would keep the pair capped and invite a retracement toward support.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 12,552.61 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,501.23 it cost on Tuesday.The price for Gold increased to INR 146,404.30 per tola from INR 145,811.80 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram12,552.6110 Grams125,520.20Tola146,404.30Troy Ounce390,413.90FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:12 EUR/JPY holds below 182.00 as Japan’s Trade Balance softens, German IFO data eyed
EUR/JPY holds ground after two days of losses, trading around 181.90 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
05:42 US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Holds steady around 98.30; not out of the woods yet
The US Dollar (USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday and recovers further from its lowest level since early October, around the 97.90-97.85 region, touched the pervious day.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The USD is looking to build on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since early October.Dovish Fed expectations might cap gains for the DXY and warrant caution for bullish traders.The technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD is to the downside.The US Dollar (USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday and recovers further from its lowest level since early October, around the 97.90-97.85 region, touched the pervious day. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, climbs to the 98.30 zone in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation seems elusive amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.From a technical perspective, the recent failure to build on the momentum beyond the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent breakdown below the 100-day SMA favors the USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.Moreover, the 100-day SMA flattens and remains beneath the declining 200-day one, preserving a bearish alignment. Price holds below both, with the shorter SMA at 98.63 acting as an immediate hurdle. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below the Signal line and under the zero mark, while the negative histogram contracts, hinting at fading downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, near the lower end of neutral, with a modest uptick suggesting tentative stabilization.Downside risk persists while below trend filters, as the 200-day SMA trends lower at 99.25 and caps rebounds. The MACD remains under the Signal line and below zero, with the narrowing negative histogram reinforcing a tentative loss of bearish pressure. RSI’s recovery is shallow, and a push above the 50 midline would be needed to strengthen a rebound. A sustained break above 99.25 would shift the medium-term tone to the upside; failure to reclaim moving-average resistance would keep the bias weak.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)DXY daily chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Technical Analysis:
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Technical Analysis:
05:21 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hits record highs near $66 on weak US data
Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh all-time high near $66 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal extends its bull run as weak United States (US) employment data, Retail Sales, and flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data raise economic concerns.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price refreshes all-time high near $66 as investors shift to safe-haven fleet.The demand for safe-haven assets increases amid rising US economic concerns.The US Unemployment Rate accelerates to 4.6% in November.Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh all-time high near $66 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal extends its bull run as weak United States (US) employment data, Retail Sales, and flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data raise economic concerns.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed on Tuesday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level seen since September 2021. In the same period, the economy created 64K fresh jobs, higher than estimates of 50K, but after firing 105K payrolls in October.Month-on-month Retail Sales remained flat in October, while it was expected to grow steadily by 0.1%. Meanwhile, preliminary S&P Global PMI landed at 53.0, sharply lower than 54.2 in November.Escalating US economic jitters have raised demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.The broader outlook of the Silver price has remained upbeat due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate cuts in 2026 than one projected by officials in December’s policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67.6% chance that the Fed will deliver at least two interest rate cuts next year.Silver technical analysis
Silver price trades almost 3% higher around $66.00 during Asian trading hours. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises at $63.28, with price holding above the average and keeping the short-term tone positive. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.16 sits near the overbought threshold, signaling that momentum could cool before the next leg higher.Bias remains firm while the market stays above the rising EMA, where pullbacks would be cushioned. A break below the 20-period EMA would turn the intraday bias down, making Silver fragile towards the psychological level of $60.00. While a persistent hold above it would preserve upside, and keep the odds of further upside towards $70.00(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price trades almost 3% higher around $66.00 during Asian trading hours. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises at $63.28, with price holding above the average and keeping the short-term tone positive. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.16 sits near the overbought threshold, signaling that momentum could cool before the next leg higher.Bias remains firm while the market stays above the rising EMA, where pullbacks would be cushioned. A break below the 20-period EMA would turn the intraday bias down, making Silver fragile towards the psychological level of $60.00. While a persistent hold above it would preserve upside, and keep the odds of further upside towards $70.00(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:13 Japanese Yen edges lower ahead of BoJ meeting; bullish potential seems intact
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday as bulls turn cautious and opt to wait for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update before placing fresh bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day BoJ meeting on Friday.
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Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day BoJ meeting on Friday. Investors will look for cues about the central bank's policy path going into 2026, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the JPY. Heading into the key central bank event, the growing acceptance of an imminent BoJ rate hike this week might continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY.Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off environment – as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets – should contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest recovery from its lowest level since early October amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a significant divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations, which should benefit the lower-yielding JPY and back the case for a further depreciation for the USD/JPY pair.Japanese Yen might continue to draw support from hawkish BoJ expectations and a softer risk toneThe Japanese Yen attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday amid some repositioning ahead of the highly-anticipated two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting, starting on Thursday. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Friday, and the bets were reaffirmed by the recent shift in rhetoric from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.Ueda reiterated last week that the likelihood of the central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materializing had been gradually increasing. The BoJ is getting closer to attaining its inflation target, Ueda added. This offsets concerns about Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition, amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's massive spending plan, and should underpin the JPY.The global risk sentiment remains on the defensive amid renewed worries about the health of China's economy and fears of the AI bubble burst. Moreover, the mixed US Nonfarm Payrolls report released on Tuesday fueled concerns about deteriorating labor market conditions in the world's largest economy and also tempered investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 64K jobs in November against consensus estimates for an increase of 50K. In contrast, October payrolls declined by 105K, while September job gains were revised down to 108K from the initial estimate of 119K. Adding to this, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.6% from 4.4% in the previous month.The data reaffirmed bets for further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. In fact, traders are pricing in the possibility of two more interest rate cuts by the US central bank in 2026. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the overnight US Dollar recovery from a two-and-a-half-month low and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside.Traders now look forward to speeches from influential FOMC members for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, though the market attention will be on the latest US consumer inflation figures on Thursday. Apart from this, the outcome of a two-day BoJ policy meeting on Friday will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY seems vulnerable to retest the monthly swing low, around the 154.35-154.30 regionAgainst the backdrop of the USD/JPY pair's recent decline witnessed over the past week or so, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, validating the near-term negative outlook for spot prices. Hence, weakness back towards retesting the monthly low, around the 154.35-154.30 region, en route to the 154.00 mark, looks like a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the latter will mark a fresh breakdown and pave the way for deeper losses.On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the 155.20-155.25 region, nearing the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond could trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 156.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the monthly swing high, around the 157.00 neighborhood, touched last week. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:45 WTI climbs above $55.50 as Trump orders blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $55.75 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price climbs amid rising volatility around Latin American crude supply.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price jumps to near $55.75 in Wednesday’s Asian session, up 1.25% on the day. Trump’s blockade announcement underpins the WTI price. US crude oil stockpiles fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, API said. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $55.75 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price climbs amid rising volatility around Latin American crude supply. Traders await the release of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil stockpiles report later on Wednesday.US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, Reuters reported late Tuesday. His comments came after US forces seized an oil tanker in waters near Venezuela, and Washington has ordered a huge build-up of US military forces off the Venezuelan coast in an operation said to target drug smuggling. Trump’s order to block sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers could provide some support to the WTI price, as it raises supply disruption risks and adds a geopolitical premium. Furthermore, a larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw might also boost the black gold. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending December 12 fell by 9.3 million barrels compared to a decline of 4.8 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a 2.2 million barrel decrease in the report period. On the other hand, a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine might cap the upside for the WTI. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Monday that talks between the US and Ukraine to end the war with Russia were "very constructive." WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
04:45 USD/CAD rises above 1.3750 after rebounding from three-month lows
USD/CAD rebounds from a three-month low of 1.3730, recorded in the previous session, currently trading around 1.3770 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) finds support, as mixed labor market data did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.The US November jobs report showed payroll growth of 64K, slightly above forecasts, but October figures were revised sharply lower, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, underscoring a gradually cooling labor market. Retail sales were flat on the month, reinforcing signs that consumer demand is losing momentum.Fed officials are split over whether more easing of monetary policy is needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Meanwhile, traders anticipate two rate cuts next year.According to the Wall Street Journal, the US President Donald Trump is set to interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday for the top Fed job. A WSJ poll in October revealed that Waller was ranked as the top choice of economists, because “he has laid out some of the most intellectually consistent arguments for rate cuts this year and is seen as someone who might be able to navigate internal divisions.”The USD/CAD pair could extend its decline as the Canadian Dollar finds support from the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep rates at 2.25% and its view that policy is “about the right level,” dampening expectations for aggressive near-term easing.Meanwhile, Canadian inflation data, headline CPI steady at 2.2% and trimmed-mean inflation easing to a ten-month low of 2.8%, reinforced confidence that price pressures are converging toward the BoC’s target. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:20 Australian Dollar extends losses as USD stays firm amid fading Fed rate cut bets
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its losses for the fifth consecutive day.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar weakens even as markets grow increasingly wary of an RBA rate hike as early as February.Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank expect earlier RBA tightening due to persistent inflation and capacity constraints.The USD may find support as mixed labor data failed to bolster expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its losses for the fifth consecutive day. However, the downside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the Aussie Dollar could find support as markets grow increasingly wary of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike as early as February.Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank now expect the RBA to start tightening sooner than previously projected, pointing to stubborn inflation in a capacity-constrained economy. Their forecasts followed the central bank’s hawkish hold on rates at its final 2025 meeting last week. Swaps price in a 28% chance of a February hike, nearly 41% in March, with August almost fully priced.The AUD remains under pressure as Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.2 in December from 51.6 previously, according to data released by S&P Global on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Services PMI slipped to 51.0 from 52.8, and the Composite PMI fell to 51.1 from 52.6.US Dollar struggles despite diminishing Fed rate cut betsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 98.20 at the time of writing. The USD could find support as mixed labor market data did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.The US November jobs report showed payroll growth of 64K, slightly above forecasts, but October figures were revised sharply lower and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, underscoring a gradually cooling labor market. Retail sales were flat on the month, reinforcing signs that consumer demand is losing momentum.Fed officials are split over whether more easing of monetary policy is needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Meanwhile, traders anticipate two rate cuts next year.The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 74.4% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in November vs. 2.9% expected and 2.9% in October. Chinese Industrial Production increased 4.8% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.0% forecast and 4.9% seen previously.China’s Fixed Asset Investment came in at -2.6% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in November, missing the expected -2.3% figure. The October reading was -1.7%.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that the Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in November. The figure came in below the market consensus of 4.4%. Furthermore, the Australian Employment Change arrived at -21.3K in November from 41.1K in October (revised from 42.2K), compared with the consensus forecast of 20K.Australian Dollar hovers around nine-day EMA near lower ascending channel boundaryThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6630 on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair trading within an ascending channel trend, reflecting a bullish bias. However, the pair is hovering around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a neutral short-term price momentum.The AUD/USD pair could test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6620. A break below the channel could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the six-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the three-month high of 0.6685, followed by 0.6707, the highest since October 2024. Further advances would support the pair to test the upper ascending channel boundary around 0.6740.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.01% -0.03% 0.03% 0.00% -0.01% -0.01% EUR -0.00% 0.01% -0.04% 0.03% 0.00% -0.01% -0.01% GBP -0.01% -0.01% -0.04% 0.02% -0.01% -0.02% -0.03% JPY 0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% CAD -0.03% -0.03% -0.02% -0.07% -0.03% -0.05% -0.05% AUD -0.01% -0.00% 0.00% -0.04% 0.03% -0.01% -0.02% NZD 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% -0.02% 0.05% 0.01% -0.01% CHF 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% -0.02% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:06 Gold advances to near seven-week highs amid US labor market cooling
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to near seven-week highs above $4,300 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as the US labor market remains relatively resilient but shows signs of slowing.
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The precious metal gains momentum as the US labor market remains relatively resilient but shows signs of slowing. The mixed US employment report for November reinforces bets of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and weighs on the US Dollar (USD). Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.The US central bank delivered its third 25-basis-point rate cut at the December policy meeting last week. However, Fed policymakers are divided on whether additional rate cuts are needed in 2026. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction next year, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Traders await the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are set to speak. Any hawkish comments from policymakers could lift the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Looking ahead, the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be in the spotlight on Thursday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be published on Friday. These reports could shape expectations for Fed rate cuts. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold rises amid slowing trend in the US labor marketThe US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation for an increase of 50,000. The Unemployment Rate in the US ticked higher to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in October. The Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% MoM in November after jumping 0.4% in the previous month.US Retail Sales were unexpectedly flat in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September, the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This figure came in below the consensus of 0.1%. US President Donald Trump is set to interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday for the next Fed Chair, according to people familiar with that matter, per the Wall Street Journal.Markets anticipate two rate cuts next year. Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 75.6% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Gold’s long-term technical outlook remains bullishGold trades in positive territory on the day. According to the four-hour chart, the positive view of the precious metal remains intact, with the price being well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands widen and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline, displaying the bullish momentum in the near term. Sustained trading above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of $4,305, XAU/USD could be gearing up for another run at the December 15 high of $4,350. Any follow-through buying above this level could even open the door to retest an all-time high of $4,381.On the flip side, a string of red candles could set the tone for a bearish run, with the first support level to watch at the December 16 low of $4,271. The next contention level is seen at the 100-day EMA of $4,220. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
03:32 US President Donald Trump orders total blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers
US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, Reuters reported late Tuesday.
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US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, Reuters reported late Tuesday. “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America,” said Trump in a Truth Social post.Trump’s comments came after US forces seized an oil tanker in waters near Venezuela, and Washington has ordered a huge build-up of US military forces off the Venezuelan coast in an operation said to target drug smuggling.Market reactionAt the time of press, the WTI price is up 0.86% on the day at $55.55. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:25 EUR/USD steadies near 1.1750 ahead of final Eurozone CPI amid fading USD recovery
The EUR/USD pair steadies around the 1.1750 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the highest level since September 24.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0573 vs. 7.0602 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0573 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0602.
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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0573 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0602. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
02:56 NZD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.5800; RBNZ-Fed divergence limits losses
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 0.5760-0.5755 region, or an over one-week low, and ticks lower during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5780-0.5775 area, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for bearish traders.Disappointing Chinese macro data released on Monday revived concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy. This, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the perceived riskier Kiwi and acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish outlook on the future policy path should help limit deeper losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).RBNZ Governor Ann Breman emphasised earlier this week that if economic conditions unfold as expected, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for an extended period. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to bets for two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which caps the US Dollar's (USD) post-US NFP bounce from the lowest level since early October and lends support to the NZD/USD pair.Furthermore, expectations for a dovish replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Market participants now look forward to speeches from influential FOMC members, which, along with the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, would shape expectations about the Fed's policy path. This will play a key role in driving the USD demand in the near-term and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair.Nevertheless, the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the NZD/USD pair’s recent corrective pullback from the 0.5830 region, or a multi-month high, touched last Thursday. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
02:18 GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism
The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:03 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) down to -0.04% in November from previous 0.11%
Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) down to -0.04% in November from previous 0.11%
02:02 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM): 0% (November) vs previous 0.11%
Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM): 0% (November) vs previous 0.11%
02:01 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance rose from previous ¥-4.2B to ¥62.9B in November
Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance rose from previous ¥-4.2B to ¥62.9B in November
01:51 Japan Imports (YoY) came in at 1.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in November
Japan Imports (YoY) came in at 1.3% below forecasts (2.5%) in November
01:51 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 7% above expectations (-2.3%) in October
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 7% above expectations (-2.3%) in October
01:50 Japan Exports (YoY) registered at 6.1% above expectations (4.8%) in November
Japan Exports (YoY) registered at 6.1% above expectations (4.8%) in November
01:50 Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) above expectations (3.6%) in October: Actual (12.5%)
Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) above expectations (3.6%) in October: Actual (12.5%)
01:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥322.2B above expectations (¥71.2B) in November
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥322.2B above expectations (¥71.2B) in November
01:22 USD/JPY weakens below 155.00 as BoJ rate hike speculation grows
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers near 154.80 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike rates to 0.75% on Friday.
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US NFP increased by 64,000 in November, stronger than expected; Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6%. BoJ is set to raise the short-term policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% at its December meeting on Friday. The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers near 154.80 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike rates to 0.75% on Friday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)rose by 64,000 in November after declining 105,000 in October, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation for an increase of 50,000. The report also showed that NFP declined by 105,000 in October. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate in the US climbed to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in October. The Greenback faced some selling pressure in the immediate reaction to the mixed US employment report. Fed policymakers are divided on whether additional rate cuts are needed in 2026. The median Fed official forecasts just one reduction next year, although traders expect two. The BoJ is anticipated to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% at a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday, a three-decade high, and pledge to keep hiking borrowing costs. Traders ramped up their bets for an imminent BoJ rate hike following Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments last week, saying that the likelihood of the central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materializing had been gradually increasing. Firming BoJ rate hike expectations could boost the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak later on Wednesday, including New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Any hawkish comments from Fed policymakers might help limit the Greenback’s losses. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:41 New Zealand Current Account - GDP Ratio climbed from previous -3.7% to -3.5% in 3Q
New Zealand Current Account - GDP Ratio climbed from previous -3.7% to -3.5% in 3Q
00:40 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -9.3M in December 12 from previous -4.8M
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock down to -9.3M in December 12 from previous -4.8M
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