Forex News Timeline

Monday, March 27, 2023

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Frida

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, now by around 5.5K contracts. In the same direction, volume rose by nearly 41K contracts after four daily drops in a row. WTI: Next target comes at $71.60 Friday’s comeback from the sub-$67.00 mark was accompanied by rising open interest and volume and favours the continuation of the recovery in prices of the WTI in the very near term. The convincing surpass of the key $70.00 mark per barrel should expose a potential move to the recent weekly peaks around $71.60 (March 23).

The USD/JPY experienced a sharp rebound after finding support at the 130.00 mark. The significant drop after reaching the March high of 138.00 for the

USD/JPY struggles to upside momentum amid falling US Treasury yields.Banking turmoil fuels safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen.USD/JPY's RSI suggests a possible pullback in the midst of downside bias.The USD/JPY experienced a sharp rebound after finding support at the 130.00 mark. The significant drop after reaching the March high of 138.00 for the pair on a daily timeframe is a clear reflection of the falling US Treasury (UST) bond yields. Amid the ongoing banking adversity, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled a pause, leading to a broad-based US Dollar weakness. In addition, the banking turmoil has ignited fresh safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen. With a downside bias intact, the USD/JPY's upward momentum is likely to remain limited. The first resistance for the pair is situated at Wednesday's high of 132.50, which also coincides with the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA). A convincing break above this level could lead the pair to confront the next resistance, a multi-tested broken resistance line coinciding with the 21-DMA. A strong reversal in price or sudden surge in US Dollar demand could propel the USD/JPY to the March high of 138.00, a key psychological level. On the other hand, the first support is seen at the 130.00 round figure, followed by the March low at the 129.75 mark. The final support zone is situated around the 128.00 mark.The fundamental picture for the USD/JPY portrays a downside bias, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a possible pullback due to slightly oversold conditions. The pair could experience volatility based on any fresh developments in the banking sector, and later in the week, the market will carefully watch the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data release. This key economic indicator could potentially impact the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY: Daily chart  

Turkey Capacity Utilization: 73.5% (March) vs previous 75.2%

Turkey Manufacturing Confidence increased to 105.2 in March from previous 102.4

EUR/JPY snaps two-day losing streak as it grinds higher past 141.00 during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair bounce

EUR/JPY grinds higher around intraday top during the first positive day in three.Successful rebound from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trend line from August 2022 lures buyers.Oscillators appear less lucrative as 100-DMA, short-term resistance line challenge immediate upside.Limited upside expected; bulls may remain cautious below 145.20.EUR/JPY snaps two-day losing streak as it grinds higher past 141.00 during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its August-October 2022 upside, also known as the golden Fibonacci retracement, as well as extending the rebound from nearly eight-month-old ascending support line. The recovery moves, however, remain elusive unless crossing the 142.60-75 resistance confluence zone comprising the 100-DMA, descending trend line from March 15 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It’s worth noting that the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI also keep sellers hopeful. Even if the EUR/JPY price rises beyond 142.75, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-December 2022, close to 145.25, could challenge the bulls. Following that, the late 2022 peak surrounding 146.75 and the previous yearly peak of 148.40 will be in focus. On the flip side, the multi-month-old ascending trend line, near 139.65 at the latest, restricts the short-term downside of the EUR/JPY pair before the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 139.15. It should be observed that the 140.00 round figure acts as an adjacent support while a downside break of 139.15 won’t hesitate to challenge the yearly low marked in January around 137.40 EUR/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected  

Federal Reserve's (Fed) advisor and Chief Economist at KPMG, Diane Swonk, told MNI on Monday, the “Fed’s’decision Wednesday shows the central bank is

Federal Reserve's (Fed) advisor and Chief Economist at KPMG, Diane Swonk, told MNI on Monday, the “Fed’s’decision Wednesday shows the central bank is strongly considering a halt to monetary tightening including an end to balance-sheet runoffs because of what could prove a substantial drag on the economy and inflation from the recent banking crisis.” Additional takeaways "It was the most dovish hike I could imagine.” “If you get a cooling that's much more rapid without having the economy go into a deep freeze, the Fed could be easing by the end of the year and into next year." “The Fed could be forced into such a policy reversal if a credit crunch delivers a bigger wallop to the economy than officials had foreseen.” “Policymakers are trying to estimate the effects of suddenly tighter credit on growth, jobs and inflation - but it's too soon for a sound judgment.” “FOMC members appear worried that rate hikes from zero to nearly 5% in just a year might be excessive in the face of financial turmoil.” "They don't know how much that will do more than they need to cool inflation and chill the economy," "Their goal is to chill the economy not send it into a deep freeze."

In the opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, GBP/USD should keep the side-line theme well in place for

In the opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, GBP/USD should keep the side-line theme well in place for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP to trade in a range last Friday was incorrect as it dropped sharply to 1.2192 before rebounding. The rebound in oversold conditions suggest GBP is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, GBP is more likely to trade sideways, expected to be 1.2200 and 1.2300.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected GBP to advance since the start of last week. In our most recent update from last Friday (24 Mar, spot at 1.2275), we stated that ‘While GBP strength is still intact, short-term upward momentum is beginning to wane, and this combined with overbought conditions suggests 1.2400 may be out of reach this time around’. In London trade, GBP dropped sharply to a low of 1.2192. While our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2190 is not breached, upward momentum has more or less fizzled out. In other words, the week-long GBP strength has ended. The current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. From here, GBP could trade within a range of 1.2140/1.2340.”

Open interest in gold futures markets increased for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by nearly 16K contracts according to preliminary

Open interest in gold futures markets increased for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by nearly 16K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume followed suit and went up by around 67.4K contracts, adding to the previous daily build. Gold could slip back to $1930 Prices of the ounce troy of gold faded part of the recent advance on Friday. The downtick was on the back of increasing open interest and volume and leaves the door open to further weakness in the very near term. That said, the precious metal could revisit the area of recent lows near $1930.

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group suggest EUR/USD could navigate within the 1.0660-1.0870 range in the next few

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group suggest EUR/USD could navigate within the 1.0660-1.0870 range in the next few weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that EUR ‘has likely entered a consolidation phase’ and we expected it to ‘trade sideways in a range of 1.0800/1.0900’. Instead of trading sideways, EUR dropped sharply to 1.0712 before rebounding quickly to end the day at 1.0759 (-0.66%). The bounce from the low could extend but any advance is viewed as part of a trading range of 1.0740/1.0830. In other words, a clear break above 1.0830 is unlikely.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (24 Mar, spot at 1.0835), we highlighted that ‘As long as 1.0740 is not breached, there is potential for EUR to advance further, though the next resistance at 1.0980 could be out of reach this time around’. We did not quite expect the sharp pullback that broke below 1.0740 (low has been 1.0712). The breach of the ‘strong support’ at 1.0740 indicates that the upward pressure has eased. EUR appears to have entered a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 1.0660 and 1.0870 for the time being.”

GBP/JPY renews intraday high near 160.35 as bulls return to the table amid early Monday in London, after a three-day absence. In doing so, the quote p

GBP/JPY picks up bids to refresh intraday high, prints the first daily gain in four.Clear break of immediate descending trend line, 50-HMA favor buyers.Upbeat oscillators add strength to bullish bias targeting 200-HMA.GBP/JPY renews intraday high near 160.35 as bulls return to the table amid early Monday in London, after a three-day absence. In doing so, the quote pierces 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA) in an attempt to please the buyers. That said, the cross-currency pair’s latest rebound could be linked to the quote’s successful break of a downward-sloping resistance line from the last Wednesday. Adding strength to the upside bias are the bullish MACD signals and ascending RSI (14) line, not overbought. Although the GBP/JPY buyers are likely to keep the reins, at least for a while, the 200-HMA hurdle surrounding 161.10 holds the key for the pair’s further upside. Following that, the previous weekly top and the monthly high, respectively around 163.35 and 164.25, could lure the bulls. Meanwhile, the 160.00 psychological magnet limits the immediate downside of the GBP/JPY price ahead of the resistance-turned-support line of around 159.50. Should the cross-currency pair slip beneath the 159.50 mark, the monthly low of 158.27, marked the previous day, may lure the GBP/JPY bears. To sum up, GBP/JPY is likely to rise further but the pair’s upside past 200-HMA needs strong catalysts to convince bulls. GBP/JPY: Hourly chart Trend: Further upside expected  

FX option expiries for Mar 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0785 700m 1.0800 1.0b - GBP/USD: GB

FX option expiries for Mar 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0785 700m 1.0800 1.0b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2300 636m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      130.00 606m 130.50 1.1b - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3600 500m

The greenback, when measured by the USD Index (DXY), attempts to extend the rebound seen in the second half of last week just above the 103.00 mark. U

The index keeps the trade above the 103.00 mark.US yields attempt a tepid recover on Monday.Markets’ attention should shift to PCE inflation due on Friday.The greenback, when measured by the USD Index (DXY), attempts to extend the rebound seen in the second half of last week just above the 103.00 mark. USD Index: Gains look capped around 103.40 After bottoming out in the area just below the 102.00 yardstick on March 23, the index managed to regain some composure and reclaim the are beyond 103.00 the figure in past sessions, although the bull run appears to have met initial resistance near 103.40, an area coincident with the 55-day SMA. Moving forward, investors are expected to closely follow messages from Fed’s rate setters in the wake of the recent dovish hike, while inflation figures tracked by the PCE should take centre stage towards the end of the week. Later on Monday, short-term bill auctions and the speech by FOMC’s P.Jefferson (permanent voter, centrist) are due. What to look for around USD The index appears slightly bid in the area above the 103.00 mark at the beginning of the week, amidst unclear direction in US yields and alternating risk appetite trends. So far, speculation of a potential Fed’s pivot in the short-term horizon should keep weighing on the dollar, although the still elevated inflation, the resilience of the US economy and the hawkish narrative from Fed speakers are all seen playing against that view for the time being.Key events in the US this week: Advanced Goods Trade Balance, FHFA House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence Advanced (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales (Wednesday) – Final Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) – PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is advancing 0.08% at 103.20 and faces the next hurdle at 103.39 (55-day SMA) followed by 104.30 (100-day SMA) and then 105.88 (2023 high March 8). On the other hand, the breach of 101.93 (monthly low March 23) would open the door to 100.82 (2023 low February 2) and finally 100.00 (psychological level).

The EUR is likely to appreciate somewhat against the USD with a view to the end of the year, once rate cuts draw nearer in the US, according to econom

The EUR is likely to appreciate somewhat against the USD with a view to the end of the year, once rate cuts draw nearer in the US, according to economists at Commerzbank. Fed to start cutting rates again in early 2024 “As market concerns subside, the Dollar's ‘safe haven’ property is likely to be less and less in demand, which argues for rising EUR/USD.”  “Both the Fed and the ECB are likely to end their rate hike cycle in the summer. However, while ECB rates are then likely to remain at their levels, we expect the Fed to start cutting rates again in early 2024. This convergence of monetary policies is a significant advantage for the Euro.”  “Our target for EUR/USD is 1.12.”  

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price is surging towards the $70 mark as investors ease some concern about ongoing banking adversity. Some rapid eff

WTI oil prices surge as banking concerns ease and geopolitical tension rise.Russian crude inventories drive tactical production cuts amid escalating European tensions.Financial market sentiment and geopolitics are likely to shape oil market volatility. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price is surging towards the $70 mark as investors ease some concern about ongoing banking adversity. Some rapid efforts from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury Department, have boosted confidence. As a result, risk appetite remains firm. On this positive development, oil prices have rebounded from the $67 mark. Oil markets are closely watching the sentiment in the financial market, while oil fundamentals remain sidelined. The oil market has been reflecting the financial market volatility for the past several days. The pullback from the $67 mark is likely driven by the US Dollar weakness, and for the oil price to break sustainably above the $70 mark, it will require a strong fundamental driver, such as the banking crisis dissipating fully. Some confidence-boosting commentary from United States officials is keeping a lid on the US Dollar safe-haven demands. Oil prices have also received some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe over Ukraine. It is quite obvious that further escalation on the Russia-Ukraine front implies higher oil prices. Although NATO and the United States both have condemned it and attributed such a move as "dangerous and irresponsible." A tactical move from Russia to cut oil production can be attributed to the understanding that Russian crude inventories have been rising since September last year, and the country would likely want to avoid further stock builds. If Russia wants to draw down the inventories that it has built, output cuts may need to be extended beyond June. Despite lots of activity on the fundamental forefront of oil, oil prices have been unable to reach the levels desired by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). For the time being, until the banking turmoil is resolved, oil prices will likely take cues from risk sentiment. As various factors continue to influence the global economy, investors and market participants will keep a close eye on developments in both financial and oil markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, to make informed decisions. Levels to watch  

The EUR/USD pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range below 1.0800 in the early European session. The major currency pair is struggling t

EUR/USD is oscillating around 1.0800 as investors are mixed about further action from Fed.The Euro is not shown any action despite renewed Russia-Ukraine concerns. The major currency pair is looking for a cushion near the demand zone placed in a range of 1.0733-1.0760.The EUR/USD pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range below 1.0800 in the early European session. The major currency pair is struggling to find direction as investors are in a fix about further action in the FX domain due to a light economic calendar this week. The Euro is not shown any action despite renewed Russia-Ukraine concerns. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the weekend that Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. He further added, “We're not transferring our nuclear weapons to Belarus but will station them there as the United States does in Europe.” Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is continuously auctioning sideways after a gradual correction to near 103.00. Investors are mixed about further action from the Federal Reserve (Fed) as upbeat preliminary S&P Global PMI indicates that the central bank could continue tightening policy further. While tight credit conditions from small US banks after the fiasco have solidified the risk of recession in the US. EUR/USD is looking for a cushion near the demand zone placed in a range of 1.0733-1.0760 on a four-hour scale. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0750 is providing a cushion for the Euro bulls. The ultimate resistance is plotted from February 01 high at 1.1033. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has taken support around 40.00, and a reversal move is highly anticipated. For further upside, the shared currency pair needs to surpass February 14 low at 1.0805, which will drive the asset toward January 18 high at 1.0887 and the round-level resistance at 1.0900. On the flip side, a downside break below March 17 low at 1.0612 would drag the shared currency pair toward March 16 low at 1.0551, followed by March 15 low at 1.0516. EUR/USD four-hour chart        

Gold price (XAU/USD) slides $1,970 during a two-day losing streak heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal justifies the

Gold price drifts lower as US Treasury bond yields underpin US Dollar’s corrective bounce.Mixed concerns surrounding bank fallouts, growth allow XAU/USD traders to position themselves for Friday’s key US inflation clues.Central bankers’ comments, bond market moves should also be eyed for clear Gold price direction.Gold price (XAU/USD) slides $1,970 during a two-day losing streak heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal justifies the latest rebound in the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar, while extending the previous day’s U-turn from the key resistance zone. Also behind the moves could be the receding banking fears as First Citizens bank agrees to buy a large chunk of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Additionally, talks that the pace of China’s growth, one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers, joined the previous day’s hawkish Fed talks and mostly US data to weigh on the XAU/USD of late. Alternatively, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that “risks to financial stability have increased,” which in turn probes the Gold sellers. On the same line were comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who flagged fears of a US recession. Amid these plays, US Dollar Index (DXY) prints a three-day uptrend near 103.12 as traders brace for Friday’s important inflation data, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields add two basis points to 3.40% while the two-year counterpart snapped a three-day losing streak near 3.85% by the press time. Moving on, the Gold price remains on the bear’s radar amid the traders’ failure to cross the key resistance, as well as due to the month-end consolidation. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, up for Friday, becomes crucial for XAU/USD traders to watch for clear directions. Gold price technical analysis Gold price extends the previous day’s pullback from the key upside hurdles as XAU/USD bears keep their eyes on the $1,955 support confluence, comprising the 10-DMA and a 13-day-old ascending trend line. Not only the failure to cross the broad resistance area between $2,010 and $1,998, the receding bullish bias of the MACD and a pullback in the RSI (14) from overbought territory also favors the Gold sellers. It’s worth noting that the previous monthly high of around $1,960 acts as immediate support for the XAU/USD. Should the quote drops below $1,955, the odds of witnessing a slump to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s fall from March 2022 to September, near $1,896, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, multiple tops marked in the last year join an upward-sloping resistance line from August 2022 together highlighting the $1,998-2,010 region as the key hurdle for the Gold buyers to cross to retake control. Following that, a run-up toward the previous yearly high of $2, 070 can’t be ruled out. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 6.9B, above forecasts (0.7B) in February

Gold price is holding onto the critical support in a cautious start to the new week. Will XAU/USD rebound from the key 23.6% Fibo level? FXStreet's Dh

Gold price is holding onto the critical support in a cautious start to the new week. Will XAU/USD rebound from the key 23.6% Fibo level? FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta analyzes the pair's technical outlook. 23.6% Fibo level holds the key “The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds bullish while the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) pierced through the mildly firm 50 DMA for the upside on a daily closing basis, confirming a Bull Cross. These favorable technical indicators continue to add credence to the bullish potential in the Gold price.” “Dovish Federal Reserve expectations combined with the renewed fears over the banking sector crisis could rekindle the upbeat momentum, prompting Gold price to resume its uptrend toward the yearly high of $2,010. However, reclaiming the March 21 high at $1,986 is critical to reversing the corrective downside.” “Gold price correction could gather strength on a daily closing below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the March advance, pegged at $1,963, below which the Bull Flag resistance-turned-support at $1,960 will be tested. Deeper declines will challenge the critical support at $1,935, which is the confluence of the 38.2% Fibo level, March 21 and 22 highs.”

AUD/USD has faced immense pressure after a gradual recovery to near 0.6660 in the early European session. The Aussie asset has sensed meaningful offer

AUD/USD has observed selling pressure near 0.6660 as USD Index has defended the 103.00 support.The street is mixed about the commentary of fewer rate hikes ahead by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.Reserve Bank of Australia is extremely worried about persistent inflation and a softening retail demand would provide some relief. AUD/USD is oscillating in an Inverted Flag pattern, which signals a bearish trend-following pattern after a downside move.AUD/USD has faced immense pressure after a gradual recovery to near 0.6660 in the early European session. The Aussie asset has sensed meaningful offers amid a recovery move by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The Australian Dollar is likely to remain in action ahead of the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled for Wednesday. S&P500 futures have made stellar gains in the morning session on Monday on hopes of expansion in liquidity assistance to small United States banks. The 500-US stocks futures basket has continued its Friday’s bullish bias, portraying significant improvement in the risk appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is defending the 103.00 support on expectations that upbeat preliminary S&P Global PMI could fade the expectations of a termination of the rate-hiking spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.3 vs. the consensus of 47.0 and the former release of 47.3. While Services PMI accelerated to 53.8 against the estimates of 50.5 and the prior release of 50.6. In addition to that, the demand for US government bonds has eased marginally, which has resulted in a minor recovery in 10-year US Treasury yields above 3.38%. Meanwhile, two-year US Treasury yields that track US equities firmly have stretched their recovery above 3.38%, indicating some pressure on risk-sensitive assets ahead. Mixed views on US banking turmoil The street is full of terror about the economic outlook of the United States economy after the banking sector turmoil. The collapse of three mid-size US banks was sufficient to dampen the confidence of investors. Fears of banking fiasco have extended to households, which have trimmed their deposits from small US banks dramatically. Reuters reported on Friday that the data from Federal Reserve (Fed) shows that deposits at small U.S. banks dropped by a record amount following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Therefore, US authorities have come forward to widen the blanket of support to US mid-size banks by expanding the emergency liquidity facility. This has provided a small time relief, however, the situation is likely to get vulnerable further. Speaking at the China Development Forum over the weekend, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that “risks to financial stability have increased.” She further added, 2023 would be another challenging year, with global growth slowing to 2.9% due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and monetary tightening. Precautionary moves from US banks in advancing loans to households and businesses have propelled the risk of a US recession. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari cited on Sunday, “Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. It definitely brings us closer." It would be a tough call from the Fed to bring more interest rates if recession fears are potential. Australian Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index to remain in the limelight A power-pack action is expected from the Australian Dollar as the release of the monthly Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will remain key event this week. Tuesday’s Retail Sales (Feb) data is expected to expand by 0.4% lower than the former expansion of 1.9%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is extremely worried about persistent inflation and a softening retail demand would provide some relief to policymakers. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia provided cues about the consideration of a pause in the rate-hiking spell from its April monetary meeting after a significant decline in monthly CPI data. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has already pushed rates to 3.60%, On Wednesday, the monthly CPI will be the key highlight. For February, the monthly figure was recorded at 7.4%. AUD/USD technical outlook AUD/USD is auctioning in an Inverted Flag chart pattern on an hourly scale. An Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that displays a long consolidation that is followed by a breakdown. Usually, the consolidation phase of the chart pattern serves as an inventory adjustment in which those participants initiate shorts, which prefer to enter an auction after the establishment of a bearish bias. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6600 is acting as a major barricade for the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has gradually shifted into 40.00-60.00 but looks less confident.  

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price remains on the back foot around $2.31 as bears take a breather after a three-week losing streak inside a short-term symmet

Natural Gas price holds lower ground within four-day-old symmetrical triangle.Sustained trading below the key EMAs, downbeat oscillators keep XNG/USD sellers hopeful.Clear break of $2.30 becomes necessary to aim for multi-month low marked in February.Buyers need a successful break of $2.50 to retake control.Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price remains on the back foot around $2.31 as bears take a breather after a three-week losing streak inside a short-term symmetrical triangle. Despite the commodity’s latest inaction, the quote’s placement below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and a two-week-old horizontal resistance keep the bears hopeful. Also favoring the sellers could be the bearish MACD signals and the steady RSI (14) suggesting the continuation of the downturn established in late 2022. It’s worth noting, however, that the aforementioned triangle’s lower line, around $2.30 by the press time, restricts the immediate downside of the XNG/USD. Following that, the previous weekly low of around $2.23 may act as an intermediate halt before directing the Natural Gas bears toward the 31-month low marked in February at around $2.13. On the flip side, the 100-EMA restricts the immediate upside of the XNG/USD near $2.36, a break of which highlights the top line of the four-day-long symmetrical triangle, near $2.40. Even if the Natural Gas price defies the triangle formation by crossing the $2.40 hurdle, the 200-EMA and a fortnight-old horizontal resistance, respectively near $2.43 and $2.50, could challenge the bulls. Overall, Natural Gas remains on the bear’s radar even if the immediate triangle restricts the short-term downside of the commodity. Natural Gas Price: Hourly chart Trend: Bearish

Japan Coincident Index above expectations (96.1) in January: Actual (96.4)

Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 96.6 above expectations (96.5) in January

USD/CHF pares intraday losses around 0.9185 but stays pressured amid downbeat options market signals and sluggish markets heading into Monday’s Europe

USD/CHF pares intraday losses around 0.9185 but stays pressured amid downbeat options market signals and sluggish markets heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair (CHF) portrays the traders’ anxiety ahead of the key Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) quarterly Bulletin, as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. That said, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CHF pair, a gauge of the spread between the call and put options, printed a three-day losing streak by the end of Friday’s North American session. It’s worth noting that the daily RR dropped to -0.010 at the latest. Not only on the daily basis but the weekly RR also please the pair sellers as it dropped to -0.040 after printing 0.000 figures in the previous week. Hence, the USD/CHF pair’s current weakness remains valid even as the markets stay dicey ahead of the top-tier data/events.

Asian stock futures softened on Monday, exhibiting mixed performance, while US and European stock futures inched higher amid hopes that authorities we

US and European stock futures edge higher amid hope for banking system protection.Cautious investor sentiment following a decline in Deutsche Bank shares and the increase in default risk.US authorities reassure investors with strong fundamentals and tightened regulations for the banking system.Asian stock futures softened on Monday, exhibiting mixed performance, while US and European stock futures inched higher amid hopes that authorities were taking action to protect the global banking system. This comes even as the cost of insuring against default approaches alarming levels. Earlier reports indicated that First Citizens Bank was in advanced discussions to acquire Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC). Investor sentiment remained cautious following an 8.5% decline in Deutsche Bank shares on Friday and a significant increase in the cost of insuring its bonds against default risk. Credit default swaps (CDS) for numerous other banks also experienced sharp increases. Forecasting the market mood based on Monday's early price action is not advisable, especially during a period of rapid change in the global banking landscape. The current CDS levels for European banks are only slightly lower than those seen during the peak of the European financial crisis in 2013. These elevated CDS levels could have widespread effects on the stock market. Despite concerns about European banks, US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the US Treasury Department have reassured investors of the strong fundamentals within the US banking system. Following the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), US regulations tightened significantly, and regular stress tests have theoretically made the US financial system more robust. In contrast, the European banking system faces a unique set of challenges due to the diverse economic circumstances of its member countries. The bloc is further divided into sub-blocks, each with varying levels of financial stability and regulatory frameworks. This heterogeneity adds complexity to the overall health and stability of the European banking system. ChinaA50 and HK50 futures traded in the red, while the Nikkei225 remained in the green. The market is still waiting for more information regarding the condition of major American and European banks. As this information becomes available, market participants will gain a clearer understanding of the global banking landscape and its implications for stock markets. it is essential for investors to stay informed and exercise caution. As authorities work to address the challenges faced by the global banking sector, market sentiment will likely remain jittery in the near term.  

USD/JPY pleases bears for the fourth consecutive day even as markets remain inactive during early Monday. The Yen pair’s latest weakness could be link

USD/JPY fades late Friday’s rebound from seven-week low, takes offer to renew intraday bottom.Sluggish US Treasury bond yields, mixed concerns about banking crisis, recession woes underpin Yen’s safe-haven demand.Fed hawks need validation from Friday’s US Core PCE Price Index to retake control.USD/JPY pleases bears for the fourth consecutive day even as markets remain inactive during early Monday. The Yen pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the traders’ rush towards the Japanese Yen (JPY) in search of risk safety, as well as looming fears surrounding the banking industry in the US and Europe. It’s worth noting that the recent divergence between the market’s bias about the next moves of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also seems to weigh on the quote of late. Although Bloomberg came out with inspiring headlines suggesting that the US and European policymakers are up for taming the bank fallouts, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that “risks to financial stability have increased.” Also raising the market’s fears was the news suggesting Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons near Belarus. However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of US recession and tamed calls for more rate hikes from the US central bank, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the Yen pair. It should be noted that Friday’s mixed details of the US Durable Goods Orders and Purchasing Managers’ Index for February and March respectively joined the hawkish Fed speak to trigger the USD/JPY pair’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Above all, the escalating chatters of the BoJ’s exit from the ultra-lose monetary policy, in contrast to the Fed’s nearness to policy pivot, directs USD/JPY towards the south. Amid these plays, stocks in the Asia-Pacific zone trade mixed while S&P 500 Futures rise half a percent to track Friday’s mildly positive Wall Street performance. That said, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.378% while the two-year counterpart picks up bids with mild intraday gains of around 3.797%. Moving on, USD/JPY pair may seek more clues from risk catalysts amid a light calendar, which in turn suggests further grinding of the quote towards the south. However, Friday’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), Japan's Unemployment Rate and Retail Trade will be important for the pair traders to watch for clear directions. Following that, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, will be observed closely. Should the inflation numbers print strong outcomes, the greenback has scope for recovery and can allow the USD/JPY to pare recent losses. Technical analysis USD/JPY struggles between a 13-day-old resistance line and upward-sloping trend line support from January 16, respectively near 130.75 and 130.55 in that order.  

The USD/CAD pair has printed a fresh day low at 1.3725 in the Asian session. The downside move in the Loonie asset is backed by a subdued performance

USD/CAD has slipped firmly to near 1.3720 amid subdued US Dollar and upbeat Canadian Retail Sales data.Higher Canadian Retail Sales have raised hopes for a resumption of a policy-tightening spell by the BOC.Oil price is eyeing more upside as Russia can attract more sanctions.The USD/CAD pair has printed a fresh day low at 1.3725 in the Asian session. The downside move in the Loonie asset is backed by a subdued performance from the US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising hopes for a resumption of a policy-tightening spell by the Bank of Canada (BoC) after the release of robust Canadian Retail Sales data. S&P500 futures have generated solid gains in the Asian session as the consideration of expanding the emergency lending program by US authorities has infused confidence among the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to find strength as the street is cheering the expectations of termination in the policy-tightening spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The USD Index is defending the 103.00 support, however, the downside looks favored. Expectations for a halt in the rate-hiking spell by the Fed are deepening amid rising credit tightening conditions by US banks after turmoil. Banks are having more precautions while disbursing advances. It looks like financial institutions have heavily faced the consequences of a blood fight against stubborn inflation. On the Canadian Dollar front, upbeat Retail Sales (Feb) data has bolstered the odds of a resumption of the policy-tightening spree by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The year started with the announcement of a halt in rate hikes by the BoC as it considered the current monetary policy restrictive enough to contain inflation. Monthly Canadian Retail Sales (Feb) jumped to 1.4%, higher than the consensus of 0.7%, and a flat performance observed earlier. Robust demand by Canadian households might force firms to hike prices for goods and services offered, which could propel the need for further rate hikes by the BoC. On the oil front, the oil price is juggling in a narrow range above $69.00. The black gold is gathering strength for extending the upside as Russia can attract more sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has conveyed his intensions to planning stations for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.  

Analysts at Morgan Stanley shift their view on the USD/JPY pair to neutral from their previous long recommendation. Key quotes "We turn neutral for JP

Analysts at Morgan Stanley shift their view on the USD/JPY pair to neutral from their previous long recommendation. Key quotes "We turn neutral for JPY against USD on the back of the recent global financial stability concerns.” “Repricing of overseas central banks' policy path led to broad JPY strength via the policy convergence channel.“ “While the BoJ continues to be patient to see wage-driven inflation, we see limited room for the market to reprice the Fed policy path higher in the near term.” "With the risk of the market pricing in further policy convergence, we close our long USD/JPY position and turn neutral until things become much clearer." 

GBP/USD prints mild gains around mid-1.2200s as it defends the previous day’s rebound from the key moving average during early Monday’s sluggish tradi

GBP/USD stretches recovery from 200-HMA, grinds near intraday high of late.100-HMA, previous support line from early March challenge bulls.Upbeat oscillators, failure to break the key moving average keep buyers hopeful.GBP/USD prints mild gains around mid-1.2200s as it defends the previous day’s rebound from the key moving average during early Monday’s sluggish trading. In doing so, the Cable pair crosses a two-day-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around 1.2240. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and gradually recovering RSI (14), not overbought also underpin the latest rebound in the Cable pair, which in turn suggests the quote’s further advances. However, the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) restricts the immediate upside of the GBP/USD price to around the 1.2260 level. Following that, the previous support line from March 08, close to 1.2320 at the latest, may act as the last defense of the GBP/USD pair sellers, a break of which opens the gate for the pair’s run-up towards the multiple tops marked during December 2022 and January 2023 near 1.2445-50. On the contrary, pullback moves need to remain below the 1.2240 resistance-turned-support to lure intraday sellers. Even so, the 200-HMA level of 1.2200 and the latest swing low of around 1.2190 can challenge the GBP/USD bears before giving them control. Overall, GBP/USD is likely to grind higher but the upside momentum need validation from 1.2320. GBP/USD: Hourly chart Trend: Further upside expcted  

The USD/MXN pair has retreated after facing barricades around 18.45 in the Asian session. The downside bias for the asset is the outcome of a subdued

USD/MXN has sensed pressure after a recovery move to near 18.45.The major looks vulnerable above 61.8% Fibo retracement at 18.40.A downward-sloping 50-EMA at 18.50 indicates more weakness ahead.The USD/MXN pair has retreated after facing barricades around 18.45 in the Asian session. The downside bias for the asset is the outcome of a subdued performance by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has refreshed its intraday low below 103.00 as investors are anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t go heavy on interest rates for now amid escalating United States recession fears. US banks are expected to behave extremely precautionary while disbursing advances to households and businesses after the turmoil in order to justify fresh regulations. Therefore, extreme credit conditions by lenders would slow down overall economic activity and henceforth the overall demand. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have extended gains in the Asian session on hopes that expanded emergency lending facility to US banks will provide support to them, portraying a higher risk appetite of market participants. USD/MXN is hovering near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from near March 09 low at 17.90 to March 20 high at 19.23) at 18.40. The retracement level also acted as a cushion for the pair last week. The major is consolidating below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 18.50, which indicates that the short-term bias is favoring the downside. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the bearish momentum has been activated. Going forward, a slippage below March 22 low at 18.43 would drag the asset toward March 13 low at 18.24 followed by March 09 low at 17.90. Alternatively, a break above March 24 high at 18.00 will expose the asset to a 23.6% Fibo retracement at 18.92 and March 20 high at 19.23. USD/MXN hourly chart  

The USD/INR is struggling to decline further, despite the broad-based US Dollar weakness stemming from recent positive banking developments and the Fe

Fed's liquidity injection operations and confidence-boosting commentary diminish US dollar's safe-haven demand.Upside risks to RBI's inflation forecast and a potential rate hike in April as India assesses state-run lenders.All eyes are on upcoming US PCE data and global banking development.The USD/INR is struggling to decline further, despite the broad-based US Dollar weakness stemming from recent positive banking developments and the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaling a pause. The pair is currently trading just below the 82.40 mark. Recapping recent developments in the US banking sector, the consecutive failures of some US regional banks have prompted the Fed to adopt a slightly dovish stance in their last FOMC meeting. As a result, they signaled a pause after implementing a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike. The Fed's ongoing liquidity injection operations and a strong willingness to support and tackle any surge in banking concerns have diminished the US Dollar's demand as a safe haven.  Last week, confidence-boosting commentary from the US Treasury Department and Fed members helped investors regain confidence in their risk appetite. Fed voter Kashkari emphasized that the US banking system is resilient and sound, but reducing stress would take time. Other Fed officials have adopted a similar tone, prioritizing inflation and boosting confidence in the underlying banking system. Moving on to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), there are upside risks to the RBI's January-March inflation forecast, and firm core prints are likely to result in a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee  (MPC) members leaning towards a 25 bps hike in April. Afterward, a pause in rates could be expected to allow the lagged impact of hikes to filter through. In response to recent developments in the global banking crisis, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has initiated a step to assess the underlying fundamentals of state-run lenders and public sector banks. The US economic calendar will feature the final print of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and Unemployment Claims on Tuesday. Subsequently, the focus will shift to US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday. Levels to watch  

The EUR/USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth action below 1.0800 in the Tokyo session. The major currency pair has turned sideways following the fo

EUR/USD is oscillating in a narrow range below 1.0800 following the footprints of the USD Index.Russia-Ukraine tensions have renewed again as it is planning to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus.Investors have cheered the consideration of the expansion of the emergency lending facility to small US banks.The EUR/USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth action below 1.0800 in the Tokyo session. The major currency pair has turned sideways following the footprints of the subdued US Dollar Index (DXY), which is struggling to extend upside despite upbeat preliminary S&P Global PMI and expansion of financial support for mid-size United States banks. S&P500 futures have added significant gains in the Asian session. The 500-US stocks futures basket has carry-forwarded positive bias observed on Friday as investors have cheered the consideration of the expansion of the emergency lending facility to small US banks to maintain their liquidity obligations. The alpha generated on 10-year US Treasury bonds is still below 3.38% as the street believes that Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell won’t hike rates dramatically ahead. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari cited on Sunday, “Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. It definitely brings us closer." It would be a tough call from the Fed to bring more interest rates if recession fears are potential. On the global front, Russia-Ukraine tensions have renewed again as President Vladimir Putin said on the weekend that Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. He further added, “We're not transferring our nuclear weapons to Belarus but will station them there as the US does in Europe.” In Eurozone, households are facing immense pressure due to galloping inflation. A massive strike in Germany was set to begin early Monday, crippling mass transport and airports in one of the biggest walkouts in decades as Europe's largest economy reels from soaring inflation, as reported by Reuters. The European Central Bank (ECB) is working hard to bring down red-hot inflation, however, the catalyst is extremely sticky led by a shortage of labor.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) makes rounds to $1,975, staying inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, as the yellow metal struggles for clear directions du

Gold price remains pressured after snapping four-week uptrend.United States Treasury bond yields remain pressured amid mixed headlines.US Core PCE Price Index, banking news eyed for XAU/USD directions.Gold price (XAU/USD) makes rounds to $1,975, staying inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, as the yellow metal struggles for clear directions during early Monday. In doing so, the precious metal extends the previous weekly losses, the first in four weeks, amid cautious optimism in the market, as well as due to the downbeat United States Treasury bond yields. Gold price eyes further weakness as yields pause previous fall Gold price remains pressured for the second consecutive day as the United States Treasury bond yields lick their wounds at the five-month lows marked in the last week. That said, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.378% while the two-year counterpart picks up bids with mild intraday gains of around 3.797%. It’s worth noting that the yields dropped to the lowest levels since September 2022 in the last week as market players rush to bonds and gold amid fears of banking fallouts. Easing banking woes, Fedspeak probe XAU/USD traders During the weekend, Bloomberg’s news surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) seemed to have contributed towards pushing back the banking turmoil. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. On the same line were comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who flagged fears of US recession and tamed calls for more rate hikes from the US central bank. It’s worth noting, however, that the mixed US data and previously hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ comments also weigh on the Gold price. That said, Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Geopolitical fears, and anxiety before Fed’s preferred inflation gauge weigh on Gold price Apart from the aforementioned catalysts, Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons near Belarus joins the cautious mood ahead of the Fed’s favorite inflation data, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, also weighs on the Gold price. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO on Sunday criticized Vladimir Putin for what it called his ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ nuclear rhetoric, a day after the Russian president said he planned to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,” per Reuters. Additionally, the Financial Times (FT) quotes one of the world’s largest shipping group  Maersk while raising fears of slower economic growth in China. Given the dragon nation’s status as one of the biggest Gold consumers, receding growth optimism weighs on XAU/USD price. On the hand, US Core PCE Price Index is likely to ease in February and hence the latest pullback could be the preparations for an upswing after the likely softer US inflation clues. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD rebound from the key 23.6% Fibo level? Gold price technical analysis Gold price seesaws inside a short-term triangle formation after snapping a three-week uptrend. It’s worth noting that the lower highs on the XAU/USD price are commensurate with the lower tops of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, which in turn suggests further downside of the quote. Adding strength to the downside bias is the recent bearish signal from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. That said, a stated triangle’s lower line, close to $1,960 at the latest, restricts short-term Gold price downside. Also challenging the XAU/USD bears is the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) surrounding $1,955. Should the Gold price breaks $1,955 support, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the XAU/USD upside from late February to March 20, near $1,906, can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the aforementioned triangle’s resistance line, near $2,003 at the latest, could recall the Gold buyers. Even so, the high marked on March 10, 2022, around $2,010, may act as an extra check for the XAU/USD bulls before they aim for the previous yearly high surrounding $2,070. Overall, the Gold price appears slipping off the bull’s radar but the bears need validation from $1,955 to retake control. Gold price: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Speaking at the China Development Forum over the weekend, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that “risks to financial

Speaking at the China Development Forum over the weekend, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that “risks to financial stability have increased.” Additional quotes  Urge for continued vigilance. The actions taken so far by advanced economies have calmed market stress. 2023 would be another challenging year, global growth slowing to 2.9% due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and monetary tightening. Will improve in 2024, but still below historic average of 3.8%. Overall outlook remained weak. China's strong economic rebound, projected GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, offered some hope for the world economy. China expected to account for around one third of global growth in 2023. Market reaction Cautious remarks from the IMF head have little to no impact on the market, at the moment. The US S&P 500 futures advance 0.44% on the day to challenge the 4,000 level.

EUR/GBP slides to 0.8795 during early Monday, printing a three-day downtrend amid a sluggish start to the week. In doing so, the cross-currency pair s

EUR/GBP prints three-day downtrend, stays pressed near intraday low.Sustained trading below 100-HMA teases confirmation of head and shoulders bearish chart formation.One-week-old ascending trend line can act as buffer on the way to 0.8670.Buyers remain off the table below 0.8865 hurdle.EUR/GBP slides to 0.8795 during early Monday, printing a three-day downtrend amid a sluggish start to the week. In doing so, the cross-currency pair stays below the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) while justifying downbeat MACD and RSI. It’s worth noting that the EUR/GBP pair portrays head and shoulders bearish chart formation on the hourly play amid the aforementioned signals, namely downbeat oscillators and sustained trading below the 100-HMA, favor sellers. That said, the quote’s further downside hinges on a clear break of the stated bearish chart formation’s neckline, close to 0.8775 by the press time. Following that, an ascending support line from March 15, close to 0.8745, may act as an intermediate halt during the theoretical fall targeting 0.8670. Also acting as the downside filter is the monthly low of around 0.8715. Alternatively, recovery moves need successful trading beyond the 100-HMA level of 0.8810 to recall the EUR/GBP bulls. Even so, the recent tops surrounding 0.8865 and the 0.8900 round figure could challenge the pair buyers afterward. If at all the EUR/GBP stays firmer past 0.8900, the monthly high near 0.8925 may act as the last defense of the bears. EUR/GBP: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected  

NZD/USD portrays the market’s inaction by making rounds to 0.6200 during early Monday, following a downbeat weekly closing. In doing so, the Kiwi pair

NZD/USD remains sidelined after reversing from one-month high in the last week.RBNZ’s Hawkesby cites fears of increasing floods but stated that the NZ banks are resilient.Markets remain sluggish mixed concerns about banks, geopolitics.China’s official PMIs, US Core PCE inflation eyed for clear directions.NZD/USD portrays the market’s inaction by making rounds to 0.6200 during early Monday, following a downbeat weekly closing. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fails to justify the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) cautious optimism, as well as mildly positive sentiment, amid a light calendar, mixed news and anxiety ahead of the top-tier data from the US and China. Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby pushed back the fears of banking fallouts in New Zealand (NZ) even as the Pacific nation is likely to witness more floods. “The capital ratios of the country's banks will remain resilient during most severe weather events though more studies were needed to understand how they could potentially compound with other risks to the financial system,” said RBNZ’s Hawkesby. On the other hand, a light calendar and a lack of major macros challenge the momentum traders of the NZD/USD pair. Talking about positives, Bloomberg’s news surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) seemed to have contributed to the risk-on mood. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. On the same line were comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who flagged fears of US recession and tamed calls for more rate hikes from the US central bank. Meanwhile, news about Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons near Belarus joins the mostly upbeat US data and the previously hawkish Fed speak to weigh on the Kiwi pair. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO on Sunday criticized Vladimir Putin for what it called his ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ nuclear rhetoric, a day after the Russian president said he planned to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,” per Reuters. On Friday, Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Following the US data, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, becomes necessary for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch ahead of China’s official activity data for March. Technical analysis Although a convergence of the 21-DMA and a two-week-old ascending support line challenges NZD/USD bears around 0.6200, the recovery moves remain elusive unless the quote stays below the 50-DMA level of around 0.6295.  

AUD/USD buyers struggle to keep the reins around 0.6650 during Monday’s sluggish trading session, after a volatile week. In doing so, the Aussie pair

AUD/USD licks its wounds after posting weekly loss, as well as confirming bearish chart formation.Downbeat oscillators, key SMAs also challenge Aussie pair buyers.Monthly low can act as intermediate halt during theoretical target surrounding October 2022 peak.AUD/USD buyers struggle to keep the reins around 0.6650 during Monday’s sluggish trading session, after a volatile week. In doing so, the Aussie pair licks its wounds after posting the weekly loss but lacks recovery momentum to extend the late Friday’s corrective bounce off a one-week low. It should be noted that the AUD/USD pair’s confirmation of a two-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formations joins the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, to keep sellers hopeful. That said, the latest trough surrounding 0.6625 lures intraday sellers of the Aussie pair before highlighting the monthly low of 0.6564. Following that, the theoretical target of rising wedge confirmation, surrounding 0.6650, joins the October 2022 peak of near 0.6645, to offer strong support to the sellers. On the flip side, the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), near 0.6670 at the latest, guards immediate recovery moves of the AUD/USD pair before the stated wedge’s lower line, around 0.6680. Even if the Aussie pair crosses the 0.6680 support-turned-resistance, the wedge’s top line and the 200-SMA, respectively near 0.6750 and 0.6760, could challenge the bulls. It’s worth observing that the monthly high of around 0.6785 acts as the last defense of the AUD/USD bears. AUD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

Citing China's Finance Minister Liu Kun, the 21st Century Herald reported on Monday, the country “will intensify efforts to implement a strong fiscal

Citing China's Finance Minister Liu Kun, the 21st Century Herald reported on Monday, the country “will intensify efforts to implement a strong fiscal policy and efficient taxation system this year to stabilize the economy.” Liu said, “the global economic situation was not optimistic, and China's economy faces challenges.“ “Support for small and medium-sized enterprises, self-employed businesses, and disadvantaged industries will be a key focus this year,” he added. Separately, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that profits at industrial firms in China declined 22.9% in the first two months of 2023 from the year before. Related readsS&P 500 Futures grind higher past 4,000, Treasury yields stay pressured on mixed bank, geopolitical newsChina’s Commerce Ministry: Do not actively pursue trade surplus with US

USD/CHF managed to find support and its downside fall was stalled at the 0.9125 level. This was due to some easing financial conditions in the US, fol

Rollercoaster Ride: USD/CHF's volatility amidst global banking liquidity concerns.USD/CHF finds support at 0.9125, as US authorities intervened.Geopolitical tensions and US PCE data to influence USD/CHF movement.USD/CHF managed to find support and its downside fall was stalled at the 0.9125 level. This was due to some easing financial conditions in the US, following the fallout from a regional bank and the contagion effect that spilled over to Europe. Concerns over Credit Suisse and a sudden spike in Deutsche Bank's credit default swap led to a rollercoaster ride for the market last week.  However, quick interventions and a strong willingness from US authorities to rescue the banking sector helped USD/CHF close on the green side last Friday. Despite this, the downside bias for the pair remains intact, and any convincing break below the 0.9125 level will likely pave the way for the multi-test support line at 0.9068 on the daily time frame. The upside potential is likely to remain capped by the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA), currently pegged around Wednesday's high at the 0.9250 level. A convincing break above this level will likely confront the pair with the 21-DMA, and breaking above both DMAs will lead USD/CHF towards the two-week high at 0.9333. The last line of support is seen at the 0.9446 mark, which is also a multi-month high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling lower lows, suggesting further downside room for the pair. All eyes will remain on Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus and the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for this week, as well as any further developments on the global banking liquidity front, as the US dollar will likely take its cue from them. USD/CHF: Daily chart  

The GBP/USD pair has surrendered its morning gains and has slipped to near 1.2230 in the Asian session. The Cable witnessed the heat after failing to

GBP/USD is struggling to extend its recovery further as USD Index has shown signs of recovery.The promise of expansion of the emergency lending facility to small US banks has improved US Dollar’s appeal.Robust UK retail demand cements the continuation of the policy-tightening spell by the BoE.The GBP/USD pair has surrendered its morning gains and has slipped to near 1.2230 in the Asian session. The Cable witnessed the heat after failing to climb above the immediate resistance of 1.2250 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some recovery after a gradual correction. The USD Index has attempted a recovery move from 103.00 as the promise of providing more financial support to mid-size banks by the United States administration has infused confidence among market participants. Bloomberg reported that US authorities are considering an expansion of the emergency lending facility that would offer banks more support, and will provide the First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet. S&P500 futures have loaded up some decent gains after a positive week on hopes that emergency lending support to mid-size banks will provide them room for more business. Also, more financial support to small US banks after declining deposits post-banking fiasco would help them to restore the confidence of households. Meanwhile, contrary decisions from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on the US recession are impacting the decision-making. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari cited on Sunday, “Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR on Friday that there are clear signs that the banking system is safe and resilient. And Fed Bostic is "Not expecting the economy to fall into recession." On the United Kingdom front, Pound Sterling remained in action on Friday after robust Retail Sales data. Monthly Retail Sales (Feb) data accelerated firmly by 1.2%, higher than the consensus of 0.2% and the former release of 0.9%. UK’s annual Retail Sales data contracted by 3.5% while the street was anticipating a contraction of 4.7%. This indicates that the rate-hiking spell by the Bank of England (BoE) will stay for a longer period.  

Risk profile remains mildly positive after a volatile week as traders hope the policymakers’ efforts to tame banking turmoil would push back fears sug

Market sentiment stays cautiously optimistic amid sluggish week-start.S&P 500 Futures stay mildly bid after two-week uptrend, yields remain weak for the fourth consecutive week.Shift in Russia’s nuclear amenities to Belarus, talks of an SVB deal trouble traders amid light calendar.Dovish remarks from Fed’s Kashkari, mixed US data allow risk markets to grind higher, Fed’s favorite inflation gauge eyed.Risk profile remains mildly positive after a volatile week as traders hope the policymakers’ efforts to tame banking turmoil would push back fears suggesting the return of the 2008 financial crisis. Adding strength to the cautious optimism are the recent comments from the central bankers who sounded less hawkish. Above all, a light calendar and a lack of major macros allowed traders to extend the previous weekly moves ahead of the key US inflation clues, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, up for publishing on Friday. While portraying the mood, US Treasury bond yields struggle to keep the three-week downtrend as benchmark bond coupons remain directionless around the latest multi-day lows marked in the last week. However, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,010 at the latest and traces Wall Street’s gains to suggest a mildly positive risk appetite. Among the major headlines, Bloomberg’s news surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) seemed to have contributed to the risk-on mood. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. On the same line were comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who flagged fears of US recession and tamed calls of more rate hikes from the US central bank. Alternatively, news about Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons near Belarus join the mostly upbeat US data and the previously hawkish Fed speak to weigh on sentiment. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO on Sunday criticized Vladimir Putin for what it called his ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ nuclear rhetoric, a day after the Russian president said he planned to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,” per Reuters. As per the latest US data, Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. It should be noted that the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Also read: Forex Today: Mixed week for the USD; is it time for some consolidation?

USD/JPY is up 0.1% on the day and has traveled between 130.49 and 131.05 so far while the mood remains jittery after shares in Deutsche Bank fell 8.5%

USD/JPY is attempting to come up for air at the start of the week.  There is a jittey mood in markets due to the banking crisis.  USD/JPY is up 0.1% on the day and has traveled between 130.49 and 131.05 so far while the mood remains jittery after shares in Deutsche Bank fell 8.5% on Friday. Investors are depending on the authorities to ring-fence the banking sector while depositors have already been fleeing smaller banks as seen in the flows to money market funds. Banking stocks plunged in Europe with heavyweights Deutsche Bank and UBS Group pummelled by concerns that we are seeing the worst implications for financial markets since 2008 financial crisis. Consequently, the US Dollar, DXY, rose by over 0.5% to 103.35. Nevertheless, the safe-haven Japanese yen touched a seven-week low of 129.65 last week. Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Sunday said officials were watching "very, very closely" to see if the banking stress led to a credit crunch that threatened to tip the economy into recession. Meanwhile, markets are well ahead of the central bank in pricing around an 80% chance rates have already peaked. In fact, a pivot is being priced in and the first rate cut is seen as early as July. In this regard, the US PCE price inflation data will be key and it is expected to slow down from a robust 0.6% MoM in Jan to a still-strong 0.4% in February (also below core CPI's 0.5% MoM gain), as analysts at TD Securities said.  ´´ The YoY rate likely rose a tenth to 4.8%, suggesting the path to normalization in price gains will be bumpy. Conversely, personal spending likely fell, but that would follow an eye-popping 1.8% surge in the prior month.´´ As for Fed speakers, we will have the Fed´s Governor Philip Jefferson later on Monday, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies on "Bank Oversight" before the Senate on Tuesday.  

WTI crude oil trims intraday gains around $69.40 during Monday’s Asian session, despite snapping the two-day losing streak. In doing so, the black gol

WTI pares the first intraday gains in three amid downbeat RSI (14).Receding bearish bias of MACD probes Oil sellers around the key supports.Buyers need validation from 11-week-old horizontal resistance to retake control.WTI crude oil trims intraday gains around $69.40 during Monday’s Asian session, despite snapping the two-day losing streak. In doing so, the black gold seems to trace the downbeat RSI (14) line amid a sluggish start to the week. That said, the RSI (14) line struggles to extend the previous week’s rebound from the oversold territory, which in turn challenges the latest recovery moves. However, the easing bearish bias of the MACD signals and a looming bull cross on the stated indicator seems to keep the Oil buyers hopeful. Adding strength to the bullish expectations could be the energy benchmark’s sustained trading beyond the 10-DMA and previous resistance line from March 07. With this, the WTI bears remain off the table unless witnessing a clear downside break of the resistance-turned-support line, close to $68.20 by the press time. It should be noted that the 10-DMA restricts the commodity’s immediate downside, near the $69.00 round figure. Above all, a downward-sloping support line from late September 2022, close to $64.00 by the press time, is the key challenge for the Oil bears to tackle. Meanwhile, an area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, around $72.50-60, restricts short-term WTI rebound. Following that, late February’s low of $73.85 can act as an extra check for the Oil buyers before directing them to the monthly high surrounding $81.00. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Recovery expected  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8714 vs. the last close of 6.8679 and the estimate at 6.8703. About the fix

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at  6.8714 vs. the last close of 6.8679 and the estimate at 6.8703. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

The XAU/USD exchange rate experienced a dip from the $2,000 mark as US authorities reassured investors of their strong commitment to addressing any po

Gold’s safe-haven demand diminishes as US authorities reassure investors. Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation and confidence in banking system stability.Geopolitical tensions and upcoming US PCE data are possible influencing factors for Gold.The XAU/USD exchange rate experienced a dip from the $2,000 mark as US authorities reassured investors of their strong commitment to addressing any potential issues in the banking sector. This assurance, coupled with a slightly stronger US dollar and a recovery in equity markets, has contributed to the decline in Gold prices. However, the yellow metal is likely to continue receiving support from significant macroeconomic events, such as potential problems in the banking industry. A recent surge in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has caused renewed concern among investors, prompting a shift towards risk aversion on Friday. Although there is no definitive evidence of any substantial issues for Deutsche Bank, concerns about the undercapitalization of US banks could cause Gold prices to rise. At a policy meeting last week, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials noted that there were no signs of worsening financial stress, allowing them to maintain their focus on reducing inflation through further interest rate increases. As expected, the Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point and hinted at an upcoming pause. Fed voter Kashkari and other officials have expressed confidence in the US banking system's stability and resilience while emphasizing that inflation remains a priority. In geopolitical news, Russian President Putin announced the placement of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, along with the relocation of 10 aircraft capable of carrying such weapons. Putin stated that this move does not violate nuclear non-proliferation agreements and that Russia will station the weapons in Belarus similarly to how the US does in Europe. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)  and the US have criticized this decision, calling it dangerous and irresponsible, but the US also believes Russia is not preparing to use a nuclear weapon. Further escalation in this situation could boost gold prices as demand for safe-haven.  Market participants are now looking forward to the release of US Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) data on Friday. Core PCE for February is expected to rise by 0.4% MoM, which is a slower pace compared to the 0.6% increase seen in January. The annual core PCE rate is anticipated to moderate to 4.3% YoY, down from 4.7%. This data release may influence gold prices and market sentiment, as investors closely monitor inflation trends and their potential impact on the economy and financial markets. Levels to watch  

USD/CAD prints mild losses as it extends the late Friday’s pullback from the highest levels in eight days to 1.3730 during Monday’s sluggish Asian ses

USD/CAD stays pressured around intraday low, extends late Friday’s pullback.Market’s cautious optimism, downbeat comments from Fed’s Kashkari weigh on US Dollar.Fears emanating from Russia, US Dollar retreat allow WTI crude oil to pare recent losses.Canada GDP, Fed’s preferred inflation eyed for clear directions.USD/CAD prints mild losses as it extends the late Friday’s pullback from the highest levels in eight days to 1.3730 during Monday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair cheers the US Dollar’s pullback, as well as firmer prices of Canada’s key export earner, namely WTI crude oil. US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps two-day rebound as it retreats to 103.00 after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari flags fears of US recession. Also weighing on the greenback could be the US Treasury bond yields’ failure to regain upside momentum. It’s worth noting that headlines from Bloomberg seemed to have contributed to the risk-on mood and weighed on the US Dollar, allowing USD/CAD to ease. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. On the other hand, WTI crude oil rises half a percent intraday to near $69.70 while printing the first daily gains in three. The black gold’s latest gains could be linked to the cautious optimism in the market, as well as the headlines suggesting Russia’s shifting of nuclear weapons near Belarus. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO on Sunday criticized Vladimir Putin for what it called his ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ nuclear rhetoric, a day after the Russian president said he planned to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,” per Reuters. It should be noted, however, that the mostly upbeat US data and an absence of dovish remarks by the Fed policymakers in the last week seemed to have favored the USD/CAD bulls. That said, US Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Following the data, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s mild closing while the US Treasury bond yields remain pressured. Looking ahead, Fed talks and second-tier US data may entertain DXY traders ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personals Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Should the inflation numbers print strong outcomes, the greenback has scope for recovery. Technical analysis Unless dropping back below the two-week-old previous resistance line, around 1.3685 by the press time, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar.  

The EUR/JPY pair is facing barricades around 141.00 in the Tokyo session. The cross is struggling in extending its recovery above the aforementioned r

EUR/JPY is looking to scale above 141.00 as the ECB is preparing for more hikes.ECB Schnabel cited that headline inflation has begun to decline although said core inflation remains sticky.The speech from BoJ Ueda will provide guidance about the likely monetary policy action.The EUR/JPY pair is facing barricades around 141.00 in the Tokyo session. The cross is struggling in extending its recovery above the aforementioned resistance, however, the upside seems favored as the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing more rate hikes ahead. Isabel Schnabel, Member of the ECB's Executive Board, has said headline inflation has begun to decline although said core inflation remains sticky. The ECB would be needed immense strength to bring higher inflation down to the desired levels, therefore, more rate hikes cannot be ruled out. On the Japanese Yen front, the speech from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, scheduled for Tuesday, will be of significant importance. This will provide guidance about the likely monetary policy action. EUR/JPY has rebounded firmly from the horizontal support of the Bearish Megaphone chart pattern formed on a two-hour scale. The horizontal support of the chart pattern is plotted from March 16 low at 139.13 while the upward-sloping trendline is placed at 141.58. Usually, a bearish megaphone pattern results in sheer weakness after the breakdown of critical support. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 141.00 is acting as resistance for the Eurozone bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates a reversal for the time being. Should the asset breaks above March 21 high at 142.79, Euro bulls would drive the cross toward March 09 low around 144.00 followed by March 15 high at 145.00. On the flip side, a downside break below March 16 low at 139.13 would drag the cross toward January 19 low at 138.00. A slippage below the same would expose the asset to a 26 September 2022 low of around 137.36. EUR/JPY hourly chart      

AUD/NZD is flat on the day after trading between a low of 1.0695 and a high of 1.0726 so far. It is a quiet start to the week while attention is on th

AUD/NZD bulls need to get over the 1.0750 mark.Bears eye prospects of a move below the triple bottom lows near 1.0670. AUD/NZD is flat on the day after trading between a low of 1.0695 and a high of 1.0726 so far. It is a quiet start to the week while attention is on the banking crisis and Australia´s inflation data this week. February´s Consumer Price Index print will grab attention after the Bank flagged it as a key data point for its April decision. ´´Our dovish forecast is due to the large seasonal decline from recreational services, partly offset by firm price increases rises for education and transport. We still retain a 25bps hike for the April meeting as inflation is still far above the RBA's inflation target,´´ analysts at TD Securities explained.  Meanwhile, analysts at ANZ Bank argued a bullish case for the Kiwi. ´´Although markets are skeptical about the idea that there is no trade-off between financial stability and price stability, NZ’s strong banks and remoteness make that more likely here; that may help NZD.´´ AUD/NZD technical analysis Although the price broke the trendline resistance, the bulls need to get over the 1.0750 mark or they face pressures and prospects of a move below the triple bottom lows near 1.0670. 

EUR/USD takes a U-turn from the intraday high while declining to 1.0770 during the mid-Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the major currency pair c

EUR/USD eases from intraday high, pares the first daily gain in three.Clear downside break of short-term ascending trend line, steady RSI keeps sellers hopeful.Convergence of 50-DMA, 10-DMA challenges Euro bears amid bullish MACD signals.EUR/USD takes a U-turn from the intraday high while declining to 1.0770 during the mid-Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the major currency pair consolidation the first daily gains in three while justifying the previous day’s downside break of a one-week-old ascending trend line amid steady RSI (14) line. However, a convergence of the 50-DMA and the 10-DMA, around 1.0730, appears a tough nut to crack for the EUR/USD bears, especially amid bullish MACD signals. Even if the quote drops below 1.0730, tops marked during early March around 1.690 could challenge the pair sellers before directing them to an upward-sloping support line from early January, around 1.0560 by the press time. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD buyers remain off the table unless the quote remains below the previous support line, around 1.0820 by the press time. Even so, multiple tops marked around 1.0930 becomes crucial for the bulls to tackle before eyeing the yearly high surrounding 1.1033. Overall, EUR/USD is likely to grind lower but an area between the aforementioned DMA convergence and the support-turned-resistance line appears the key for the pair traders to watch. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

The GBP/JPY pair has extended its recovery above 160.00 in the Asian session. The cross has get strength after the release of the better-than-anticipa

GBP/JPY has climbed above 160.00 as UK’s retail demand remained robust.Upbeat UK retail demand could keep inflation above double-digit figure.Going forward, the speech from BoJ Ueda will be keenly watched.The GBP/JPY pair has extended its recovery above 160.00 in the Asian session. The cross has get strength after the release of the better-than-anticipated United Kingdom Retail Sales data. Monthly Retail Sales (Fed) data accelerated firmly by 1.2%, higher than the consensus of 0.2% and the former release of 0.9%. UK’s annual Retail Sales data contracted by 3.5% while the street was anticipating a contraction of 4.7%. Upbeat retail demand by UK households could propel fears of persistent inflation as firms would be motivated to come up with a higher Producer Price Index (PPI), which could increase the burden on households. Contrary to that, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is of the view that “There is evidence of encouraging progress on inflation, we have to be vigilant,” cited while interviewing with BBC on Friday. Last week, the BoE hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% despite global banking turmoil. Inflationary pressures in the UK zone are extremely elevated led by higher food price inflation and a shortage of labor. An inflation rate is still in the double-digit figure, therefore, the BoE had no other alternative than to elevate rates further. On Friday, BoC member Catherine Mann said, that she voted at this week’s meeting for a 25bp rate hike instead of a bigger increase, motivated in part by the fact that inflation expectations began to moderate, reflecting that monetary policy is having an effect. On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen will remain in action ahead of the speech from Bank of Japan (BoJ) novel Governor Kazuo Ueda. A dovish stance is expected from the BoJ as the central bank is working on keeping the inflation rate above 2%. The majority of the contribution to higher Japan’s inflation is coming from higher import prices. Therefore, more push for inflation would be required through monetary tools.  

As the new week begins, the AUD/JPY pair is showing resilience, rising approximately 1% as of now and reflecting the risk-on mood triggered by US auth

AUD/JPY shows resilience amid banking liquidity challenges.Upcoming Australian and Japanese CPI releases are likely to frame the path for AUD/JPY.Essential to monitor credit default swaps in the global banking sectors. As the new week begins, the AUD/JPY pair is showing resilience, rising approximately 1% as of now and reflecting the risk-on mood triggered by US authorities' efforts to alleviate banking liquidity concerns. The AUD/JPY has been under pressure since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps) in its last meeting. The market now expects no further hikes as the RBA minutes indicated a potential pause during the April policy meeting. This, along with the ongoing market turbulence due to the global banking liquidity crisis, has made it difficult for the pair to gain traction. On Friday, the AUD/JPY experienced a setback as fresh developments surrounding Deutsche Bank's credit default swap reemergence led to a risk-off environment. Although no concrete information was available from the bank, panic began to spread. Last week, heavy commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the US Treasury Department demonstrated a willingness to intervene in the market if the liquidity crunch worsened. A rebound in US Treasury and peer debt yields, coupled with a partial easing of risk-off positioning, reduced the Yen's safe-haven premium, and Gold's allure also waned. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is set to be released on Wednesday, with expectations of a slight decrease to 7.2% from January's 7.4%. The forecast range lies between 6.7% and 7.7%. Meanwhile, Core Tokyo CPI (Friday) is anticipated to ease to 3.1% from 3.3%, due to stabilizing energy prices and base effects. This release is considered a leading indicator of national metrics scheduled for release in the following weeks. The AUD/JPY pair is likely to be influenced primarily by risk sentiment in the banking sector. As both the Australian and Japanese CPI releases draw near, market participants will closely monitor these indicators for potential impact on the currency pair. The ongoing efforts of global authorities, particularly the US, to address banking liquidity issues and stabilize financial markets will also play a crucial role in shaping the pair's performance.Levels to watch 

US Dollar Index (DXY) teases sellers around 103.00, following a two-day winning streak, amid market’s consolidation during early Monday. In doing so,

US Dollar Index pares recent gains with mild losses amid cautious optimism, downbeat yields.Fears of US recession, challenges to hawkish Fed concerns probe DXY bulls.US Core PCE Price Index, risk catalysts are the key for fresh impulse.US Dollar Index (DXY) teases sellers around 103.00, following a two-day winning streak, amid market’s consolidation during early Monday. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies remain pressured after two-week downtrend as the US Treasury bond yields remain pressured. US 10-year Treasury bond yields struggle to defend the late Friday’s corrective bounce off the lowest levels since September 2022 amid mixed concerns about the banking sector and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. However, the dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and headlines surrounding Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) weigh on the US Dollar of late, mainly due to a mild rebound in the market’s sentiment. Fed’s Kashkari said on the CBS show Face the Nation that recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. On the other hand, headlines from Bloomberg also contributed to the risk-on mood and weighed on the US Dollar. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. Previously, Reuters’ news about Russia allowed the US Dollar to grind higher before the latest fall. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO on Sunday criticised Vladimir Putin for what it called his ‘dangerous and irresponsible’ nuclear rhetoric, a day after the Russian president said he planned to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus,” per Reuters. It’s worth noting that mostly upbeat data and hawkish Fedspeak triggered the US Dollar’s rebound during late Friday. That said, US Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Following the data, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s mild closing while the US Treasury bond yields remain pressured. Looking ahead, Fed talks and second-tier US data may entertain DXY traders ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personals Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Should the inflation numbers print strong outcomes, the greenback has scope for recovery. Technical analysis A three-week-old bearish channel keeps US Dollar Index sellers hopeful unless the quote rises past 103.65 hurdle.  

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) above expectations (1.5%) in February: Actual (1.8%)

The NZD/USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth action in a narrow range of 0.6191-0.6212 continuously since Friday. The Kiwi asset has turned sideway

NZD/USD is building a cushion near the lower end of the Rising Channel around 0.6200.A responsive buying for the New Zealand Dollar is highly expected as the US Dollar has shown correction.Fewer chances of continuation of ongoing increases by the Fed have heavily impacted US Treasury yields.The NZD/USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth action in a narrow range of 0.6191-0.6212 continuously since Friday. The Kiwi asset has turned sideways and signs of recovery are solidifying as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some correction. The USD Index (DXY) has corrected to near 103.00 after failing to extend recovery above 103.36. S&P500 futures have generated solid gains in the morning session on hopes that more financial support to mid-size United States lenders from the Federal Reserve (Fed) would infuse confidence among investors and in households for making more deposits. Fewer chances of continuation of ongoing increases in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after the banking fiasco have heavily impacted US Treasury yields. The return offered on 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped sharply to near 3.37%. Contrary, economists at Goldman Sachs believe that the Fed will announce two more rate hikes in May and June by 25 basis points (bps). NZD/USD is demonstrating a small inventory adjustment near the lower edge of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a two-hour scale. In a Rising Channel chart pattern corrective moves are considered as buying opportunities by the market participants. The Kiwi asset is auctioning below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6222, which indicates that the short-term bias is still on the downside. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which also favors a downside bias. An extension of recovery above March 07 high at 0.6223 will drive the asset toward March 13 high at 0.6265 followed by the upper end of the chart pattern around 0.6325. On the flip side, a breakdown of March 21 low at 0.6167 will drag the asset toward March 15 low at 0.6139. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD two-hour chart  

AUD/USD grinds near intraday high surrounding 0.6650 amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session, portraying mildly positive sentiment after a week of pessim

AUD/USD picks up bids to pare weekly losses amid sluggish markets.News of a deal for Silicon Valley Bank joins dovish comments from Fed’s Kashkari to lure Aussie pair buyers.Absence of data/events on Monday allow pair to consolidate previous fall ahead of the key inflation numbers scheduled during the week.AUD/USD grinds near an intraday high surrounding 0.6650 amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session, portraying a mildly positive sentiment after a week of pessimism and volatility. In doing so, the Aussie pair cheers hopes of easing banking fears while also cheering news suggesting the challenges for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hikes. That said, comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on the CBS show Face the Nation seem to weigh on the US Dollar of late as the policymaker said, that recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. Previously, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. "Fed has to get inflation under control,” said Fed’s Bostic. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. It’s worth noting that the headlines from Bloomberg also contributed to the risk-on mood and allowed the AUD/USD price to remain firmer after a loss-making week. “First Citizens BancShares Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” said Bloomberg. Talking about the data, US Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s mild closing while the US Treasury bond yields remain pressured. Moving on, AUD/USD traders may witness further consolidation on Monday amid a lack of major data/events. However, the cautious mood ahead of this week’s Aussie Retail Sales, monthly inflation and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personals Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, could test the pair’s upside momentum. It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia officials have mostly been cautious of late and hence softening the inflation signals could keep the sellers in the driver’s seat. Technical analysis A clear downside break of a two-week-old ascending support line, now immediate resistance near 0.6675, keeps the AUD/USD pair on the bear’s radar.  

Silver price (XAG/USD) prints the first daily loss in four as the bright metal drops to $23.15 during early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the bright me

Silver price snaps three-day uptrend on breaking a fortnight-old support line.Nearly overbought RSI adds strength to the pullback moves targeting 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Convergence of 50-DMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement acts as an important support, XAG/USD bulls need validation from $23.50.Silver price (XAG/USD) prints the first daily loss in four as the bright metal drops to $23.15 during early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the bright metal remains depressed after two consecutive weekly losses while justifying Friday’s downside break of a short-term key support line. Not only a downside break of the two-week-old ascending support line, now resistance near $23.50, but the RSI (14) line’s placement near the oversold territory also teases the XAG/USD sellers. As a result, the bright metal appears well-set to drop towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its February-March downside, near $22.85. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-DMA, around $22.30-20, could together challenge the Silver bears afterward. It’s worth noting that the XAG/USD weakness past $22.20 makes it vulnerable to drop toward the early-month swing high of around $23.20 while the 200-DMA support of $21.00 could restrict the commodity’s further downside. On the flip side, recovery moves remain elusive unless the quote stays beyond the previous support line, now resistance around $23.50. Following that, multiple hurdles around $24.00 and $24.20 can test the Silver buyers before challenging the yearly high of around $24.65. Overall, the Silver price flags the risk of further downside but the room towards the south appears limited. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said during the weekend that the banking sector is “going through a period of very high unc

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said      during the weekend that the banking sector is “going through a period of very high uncertainty” that dictates a meeting-by meeting approach on interest rate policy, per an interview posted on the ECB website.More to come

The USD/CHF pair is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 0.9200 in the early Asian session. The Swiss franc asset is being supported by a r

USD/CHF is aiming to reclaim the 0.9200 resistance amid a firm recovery by the USD Index.Expansion of financial support to US lenders and upbeat US PMI strengthened the US Dollar appeal.The SNB is ready to tighten monetary policy further if inflation continues to remain persistent.The USD/CHF pair is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 0.9200 in the early Asian session. The Swiss franc asset is being supported by a recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Easing United States banking fears and solid preliminary US Global PMI (March) bolstered confidence for the USD Index last week. Bloomberg reported on Saturday the U.S. authorities are considering the expansion of an emergency lending facility that would offer banks more support, in an effort that could give First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet. The expression of further support to lenders to dodge vulnerable times infuses confidence among investors. S&P500 futures ended the week on a promising note as more support to lenders would also result in more deposits to mid-size US banks, which have dropped firmly after their debacle, portraying an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. Reuters reported on Friday that the data from Federal Reserve (Fed) shows that deposits at small U.S. banks dropped by a record amount following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Now wider blanket of support to US mid-size banks might provide support to US mid-side banks in the longer term. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was supported by solid S&P Global PMI data. Manufacturing PMI is still in the declining phase as a figure below 50.0 is considered as contracting. Although the figure rebounded firmly to 49.3 from the consensus of 47.0. Also, Services PMI accelerated to 53.8 against the estimates of 50.5 and the prior release of 50.6. On the Swiss franc front, an interest rate hike by 50 basis points (bps) by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to tackle galloping inflation has trimmed Fed-SNB rate divergence. SNB Chairman Thomas J. Jordan cited that the central bank is ready to hike rates further if inflation continues to remain persistent.  

The USDJPY experienced a significant rebound from the 129.50 level after US authorities intervened to address market challenges stemming from rising c

USDJPY rebounds from 129.50 after US authorities intervene to stabilize the market.Deutsche Bank's credit default swap surges, sparking investor panic and risk.Fed's Bullard and Barkin emphasize the need to tackle inflation despite financial stability concerns.The USDJPY experienced a significant rebound from the 129.50 level after US authorities intervened to address market challenges stemming from rising credit default swaps among various banks. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a 25-basis point rate hike, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured the market that all necessary steps would be taken to alleviate the liquidity crisis in the banking sector. However, panic ensued as Deutsche Bank's credit default swap began to surge, leading to investor unease and increased risk in the market. On Friday, Fed's Bullard emphasized the importance of reducing inflation despite current financial stability concerns. He acknowledged that the Committee could use macroprudential policy to mitigate financial distress if necessary. Fed's Barkin shared a similar view, noting tight labor markets and high inflation, and agreed that this week's rate hikes were justified. In economic data, February's US Durable Goods experienced a 1.0% decline, contrary to the anticipated 0.6% increase. The US S&P Global Flash PMI for March exceeded expectations for both Manufacturing and Services, pushing the Composite Index to 53.3 from 50.1. Manufacturing remains in contraction, while services continue to expand. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), Personal Income, and Spending data for Friday. Core PCE is expected to rise by 0.4% MoM in February, slower than January's 0.6% increase. The annual rate of core PCE is predicted to moderate to 4.3% YoY from 4.7%. US Personal Income is anticipated to increase by 0.3% MoM in February, slowing down compared to the 0.6% MoM growth in January. Personal Spending is also expected to rise by 0.3% MoM, a more moderate pace compared to the previous 1.8% increase. Developments in the global banking sector will be crucial to monitor, as they may significantly impact market sentiment and trends. The efforts made by the Fed and other authorities to stabilize financial markets and address inflation concerns will play a key role in shaping future economic conditions. Levels to watch  

Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said on Sunday, “The Swedish central bank might have underestimated inflationary pressure and will likely have to stick

Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said on Sunday, “The Swedish central bank might have underestimated inflationary pressure and will likely have to stick to its forecasts of another interest rate hike in April,” per Reuters. “It could be that the inflation process is worse than we thought,” Riksbank Governor told SVT television. Additional comments The main scenario remained a hike of 25 or 50 basis points in April and added that inflation outcomes since the monetary policy decision in February had been worse than expected. It is in our forecasts that inflation will come down quite quickly. The problem is that it has been in our forecasts all through 2022 and it has yet to happen. Market implications The news can weigh on the USD/KRW price that grinds higher of late around 1,296 during early Monday. It’s worth noting that the Riksbank will announce its next monetary policy decision on April 26.

GBP/USD begins the week on a positive footing, renewing its intraday high near 1.2250 while extending the previous two-week uptrend, as fears of US re

GBP/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high after two-week uptrend.Fears of US recession underpin latest fall of the greenback amid downbeat yields.Hopes of more soothing economic measures for the UK energy companies from PM Sunak help Cable buyers.Speech from BoE Governor Bailey, US Core PCE Price Index eyed.GBP/USD begins the week on a positive footing, renewing its intraday high near 1.2250 while extending the previous two-week uptrend, as fears of US recession join positive headlines from the UK. However, the cautious mood ahead of this week’s key data/events seems to test the Cable pair buyers. That said, the quote managed to cheer the Bank of England’s (BoE) 0.50% rate hike with mostly positive economics, as well as the downbeat US Treasury bond yields. However, Friday’s risk-negative headlines tested the GBP/USD buyers before the latest run-up, backed by the weekend news. During the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on the CBS show Face the Nation that recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. His comments joined the Financial Times (FT) headlines suggesting more relief to the UK’s energy companies to favor the GBP/USD prices. “Britain’s oil and gas companies are next week expected to be offered the prospect of windfall tax relief, as prime minister Rishi Sunak looks to boost investment and improve the country’s energy security,” said FT. Previously, UK Retail Sales offered an upside surprise for February by marking 1.2% MoM growth versus 0.2% expected and 0.9% previous. Further, the Core Retail Sales, which excludes the auto motor fuel sales, rose 1.5% MoM compared to 0.1% market forecasts and 0.9% previous. It’s worth noting, however, that the UK’s preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI for March came in at 52.8 compared to February’s 53.5 final print and 53.0 expected. On the same line, the first readings of Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 for the said month compared to 49.8 expected and February’s 49.3 final readout. With this, the Composite PMI eased to 52.2 versus 52.8 market forecasts and 53.1 previous readings. Following the mixed UK data, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spke during a BBC interview while saying, “There is evidence of encouraging progress on inflation, we have to be vigilant.” The policymaker also added that the risk of recession this year has gone down quite a lot. Further, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann said on Friday that she voted for a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike instead of a bigger increase, motivated in part by the fact that inflation expectations began to moderate, reflecting that monetary policy is having an effect.  On the other hand, US Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Moving on, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Following the data, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting the economy to fall into recession. "Fed has to get inflation under control,” said Fed’s Bostic. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meeting or soon after. Elsewhere, the fears of Russia’s nuclear usage in its war with Ukraine and political chaos surrounding Brexit probes the GBP/USD bulls. Looking ahead, a speech from BoE Governor Bailey can entertain intraday traders of the GBP/USD pair but major attention will be given to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personals Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Technical analysis Unless rising back beyond the previous support line from early March, around 1.2325 by the press time, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to retesting the 50-DMA support around 1.2150.  

The USD/CAD pair is looking for an intermediate cushion around 1.3700 in the early Tokyo session. The Loonie asset is juggling in a narrow range below

USD/CAD is gauging an intermediate cushion near 1.3700 as USD Index looks firm.A recovery in retail demand could force the BoC to resume hiking rates again. The upside bias for the loonie asset is still solid as it is holding auction above the downward-sloping trendline from 1.3862.The USD/CAD pair is looking for an intermediate cushion around 1.3700 in the early Tokyo session. The Loonie asset is juggling in a narrow range below 1.3740 following the footprints of the US Dollar index (DXY). The major slipped firmly on late Friday after the release of a jump in the Canadian Retail Sales data. Monthly Canadian Retail Sales (Feb) jumped to 1.4%, higher than the consensus of 0.7%, and a flat performance was observed earlier. A recovery in retail demand could force the Bank of Canada (BoC) to resume hiking rates again. The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its recovery above 103.00 after S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary PMI (March) data. Manufacturing and Services PMI recovered to 49.3 and 53.8 respectively. Although a figure below 50.0 is still considered as a contraction for an economic indicator. On an hourly scale, USD/CAD has corrected to near the demand zone placed in a narrow range of 1.3737-1.3746. The upside bias for the loonie asset is still solid as it is holding auction above the downward-sloping trendline plotted from March 10 high at 1.3862. Also, the major is still above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3727, which indicates that the short-term upside bias has not faded yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped below 60.00 but is likely to find support around 40.00 initially. A confident recovery above March 14 high at 1.3773 would drive the major toward March 09 high at 1.3835 and the round-level resistance at 1.3900. In an alternate scenario, a decisive breakdown of March 14 low at 1.3652 would drag the loonie asset toward March 07 low at 1.3600, followed by March 03 low at 1.3555. USD/CAD hourly chart  

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said on Monday that the capital ratios of the country's banks will remain resilient during most severe weather even

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said on Monday that the capital ratios of the country's banks will remain resilient during most severe weather events though more studies were needed to understand how they could potentially compound with other risks to the financial system, per Reuters. "As flood risk increases, the financial system is likely to face simultaneously a broader range of climate-related risks," the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said in a statement per Reuters. RBNZ’s Hawksby also said, “RBNZ's climate stress test, due out later this year, will help identify the combination of these risks to the balance sheets of banks.” Markets remain resilient NZD/USD struggles for clear direction near 0.6200 during early Monday, following a positive weekly close.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has shifted its auction below $1,980.00 in the early Asian session. The precious metal is not showing any signs of a rebound, the

Gold price has shifted its business below $1,980.00 after solid preliminary US PMI data.Solid PMI numbers could force the Fed to continue to hike rates further.Fed Kashkari cited recent stress in the banking sector could bring the US closer to recession.Gold price (XAU/USD) has shifted its auction below $1,980.00 in the early Asian session. The precious metal is not showing any signs of a rebound, therefore, more downside is anticipated further. Bearish bets for Gold price soared after S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary United States PMI figures (March) on Friday. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.3 vs. the consensus of 47.0 and the former release of 47.3. While Services PMI accelerated to 53.8 against the estimates of 50.5 and the prior release of 50.6. A vertical jump in the overall economic activities indicates that overall demand is robust and the road ahead for pushing US inflation lower would be full of challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that few rates are in pipeline now to avoid a banking crisis. And now solid PMI numbers could force the Fed to continue to hike rates further. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari cited on Sunday, “Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the US closer to recession. It definitely brings us closer." It would be a tough call from the Fed to bring more interest rates if recession fears are potential. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is juggling in a narrow range below 103.20 after a solid recovery. The USD Index is looking to add gains further despite potential fears of further banking turmoil. S&P500 futures settled on a positive note last week despite sheer volatility inspired by the Fed policy. The impact of dovish interest rate guidance by the Fed was witnessed in US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to 3.37%. Gold technical analysis Gold price has shown a break of higher highs and higher lows structure below $1,982.70 after forming a Double Top chart pattern on an hourly scale. The chart pattern indicates a re-test of prior highs with less buying interest, which allows aggressive selling interest to penetrate. The asset has slipped below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,985.00, which indicates that the short-term trend is bearish now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is defending the 40.00 cushion. A break below the same would drag Gold price further as a bearish momentum will get triggered. Gold hourly chart  

EUR/USD retreats towards 1.0750 as it consolidates the previous weekly gains amid cautious mood in the market ahead of the key inflation data from Eur

EUR/USD fades late Friday’s corrective bounce amid sour sentiment.Headlines surrounding banking sector, nuclear fears from Russia weigh on risk appetite.Mostly upbeat EU data, hawkish ECB talks previously allowed Euro to pare some losses.Inflation numbers from EU/Germany, US Core PCE Price Index will be crucial to watch for fresh impulse.EUR/USD retreats towards 1.0750 as it consolidates the previous weekly gains amid cautious mood in the market ahead of the key inflation data from Europe and the US. That said, the Euro pair eases from intraday high to 1.0765 during early Monday in Asia while fading the late Friday’s corrective bounce. Fears of more banking sector fallout and Russia’s likely usage of nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine joins the hawkish central bank talks to challenge the risk profile. It’s worth noting, however, that the US Dollar managed to pare some of its latest losses despite the downbeat Treasury bond yields. The recent rebound in the greenback could be linked to the slightly positive US data and hopes of faster rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, hawkish tone of the European Central Bank officials and an absence of disappointing numbers from the bloc allowed the EUR/USD pair to post the weekly gains in the last. As per the preliminary readings of Eurozone S&P Global PMIs for March, the Manufacturing gauge arrived at 47.1 versus 49.0 expected and 48.5 prior but the Services PMI rose to a fresh 10-month high of 55.6 while rising from 52.7 prior and 52.5 expected. As a result, the Composite PMI also rose to a 10-month top of 54.1 versus 51.9 market forecasts and 52.0 previous readings. On the same line were the first readings of Germany’s S&P Global/BME PMIs for March as the Manufacturing gauge dropped to a two-month low of 44.4 versus 47.0 expected and 46.3 prior but the Services PMI rose to 53.9 during the stated month from 50.9 prior and 51.1 expected. Further, the Composite PMI refreshed 10-month high with the 52.6 figure for March versus 51.0 expected and February’s 50.7. On the other hand, US Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Details suggested that the figure for Durable Goods Orders ex Defense and ex Transportation were also downbeat but
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft came in firmer-than-expected 0.0% to 0.2%, versus 0.3% prior. Further, the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global PMIs for March came in firmer as the Manufacturing gauge rose to 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. With this, the S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts. Talking about the central bankers’ comments, On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told NPR that it was not an easy decision to raise the policy rate while also adding that he is not expecting economy to fall into recession. "Fed has to get inflation under control,” said Fed’s Bostic. Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, a policy hawk, said on Friday that the response to the bank stress was swift and appropriate, allowing the monetary policy to focus on inflation, per Reuters. The policymaker also added that the projections suggest one more rate hike that could be at the next FOMC meting or soon after. In case of the ECB officials, ECB President Christine Lagarde told EU leaders on Friday that the Euro area banking sector is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions, Reuters reported citing EU officials. “ECB is determined to bring back inflation to 2%, will decide on future rates based on incoming data,” added ECB’s Lagarde. On the same line was Eurogroup President Donohoe who said that European banks have enough capital and liquidity. Further, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Friday, “It will be necessary to raise policy rates to sufficiently restrictive levels in order to bring inflation back down to 2% in a timely manner.” Amid these plays, Wall Street closed with mild gains after the late Friday’s losses while the yields bounce off weekly lows. Looking ahead, IFO numbers for Germany will joins the comments from the ECB and the Fed officials to direct the EUR/USD pair’s intraday moves. However, major attention will be given to the inflation data from Germany and Europe. On the other hand, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personals Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, will be important to track for clear direction. Technical analysis Although a downside break of a short-term support line, now resistance around 1.0855, teases EUR/USD bears, the 50-DMA support around 1.0725 challenges the quote’s further downside.  
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