Forex News Timeline

Friday, June 21, 2024

The AUD/USD pair falls back to the crucial support of 0.6650 in Friday’s European session.

AUD/USD drops to near 0.6650 as the US Dollar extends its upside.The Fed is expected to begin reducing interest rates in September.Investors await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for June.The AUD/USD pair falls back to the crucial support of 0.6650 in Friday’s European session. The Aussie asset surrenders its entire intraday gains and turns negative as the US Dollar (USD) rises further due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its current restrictive interest rate framework for longer than other central banks. The market sentiment remains cautious as global preliminary PMI figures for June have underperformed estimates in major economies such as the Eurozone, the United Kingdom (UK), Japan, and Australia. Also, the US PMI is expected to weaken against the prior release. Economists expect that the Composite PMI will decline due to poor activity in manufacturing and service sectors. S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in the European session. Asian and European markets have witnessed a sheer sell-off. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, approaches the crucial resistance of 106.00 as investors rush for safe-haven assets. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds pricing data shows that interest rates will start declining from September. While other central banks from G-7 nations have already initiated the policy-easing phase such as the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has delivered subsequent rate cuts on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar is under pressure across the FX domain even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not expected to deliver rate cuts anytime soon. The RBA is expected to hold its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% this year as price pressures in Australia are significantly higher than the desired rate of 2%. AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6652 Today Daily Change -0.0004 Today Daily Change % -0.06 Today daily open 0.6656   Trends Daily SMA20 0.664 Daily SMA50 0.659 Daily SMA100 0.6567 Daily SMA200 0.6551   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6679 Previous Daily Low 0.6648 Previous Weekly High 0.6704 Previous Weekly Low 0.6576 Previous Monthly High 0.6714 Previous Monthly Low 0.6465 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.666 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6667 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6642 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6629 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6611 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6674 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6692 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6706    

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 77.64 on Friday, up from 76.79 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/USD faces selling pressure in Friday’s European session due to multiple headwinds.

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The major currency pair declines to a six-week low near 1.0670 as the Euro weakens after downbeat Eurozone’s preliminary PMIs data that suggested the economy is losing momentum. The HCOB PMP report, produced by S&P Global, shows that the Composite PMI unexpectedly declined to 50.8 in June from the prior release of 52.2 but managed to hold above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Investors expected the Composite PMI to increase to 52.5. The Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory while the Service PMI continued to suggest expansion, although at a slower pace than the previous month. “New orders decreased for the first time in four months, feeding through to softer expansions in business activity and employment. Meanwhile, business confidence dipped to the lowest since February,” the report said. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, has been keeping the Euro on the back foot. Investors worry that the formation of Marine Le Pen's-led-National Rally’s (RN) government after legislative elections would trigger financial woes in France. The RN has promised a lower retirement age, energy price cuts, more public spending and "France first" economic policies in its manifesto. On the monetary policy front, investors evaluate how many times the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again this year. ECB Governing Council member and President of De Nederlandsche Bank Klaas Knot said on Thursday that he is comfortable with market expectations of one or two more rate cuts this year. The ECB cut interest rates for the first time in seven years at its June meeting. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines as US Dollar jumps to almost seven-week high EUR/USD weakens as the US Dollar exhibits a strong performance due to the increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) with other central banks from G7 nations. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to almost seven-week high near 105.85. Prospects for further policy divergence have strengthened as investors expect that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting and will deliver one more rate cut in the November or December. On the contrary, the ECB, the Bank of Canada (BoC), and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have already entered a policy-easing phase. The SNB delivered its second consecutive rate cut in its meeting on Thursday. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to start lowering interest rates from August. Fed policymakers emphasize keeping interest rates at their current levels until they see inflation declining for months. In latest interest-rate projections, Fed officials signaled only one rate cut this year. Market speculation of two Fed rate cuts this year was prompted by a higher-than-expected decline in the United States (US) inflation and slower growth in Retail Sales. On the inflation outlook, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that inflation would return to the bank’s target of 2% in up to two years. Kashkari remained concerned about high wage growth and acknowledged it is a key barrier to achieve price stability. In Friday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The Composite PMI is expected to decline, although staying above the 50 level, signaling slowing growth in manufacturing and the services sector. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD corrects below 1.0700 EUR/USD extends its correction below the crucial support of 1.0700. The major currency pair declines toward the upward-sloping border of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed on a daily time frame. The long-term outlook has become uncertain as the pair establishes below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0800. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines below 40.00 for the first time in almost two months, suggesting that the momentum has leaned towards the downside. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

The Mexican Peso (MXN) continues recovering on Friday on the back of optimism regarding incoming-President Claudia Sheinbaum’s top cabinet picks and the expectations that higher interest rates in Mexico will continue attracting foreign capital to its shores.

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US stock indexes closed lower on Thursday as the rally in tech fizzled out after higher US Jobless Claims stoked labor market concerns. Asian bourses traded mixed into Friday, with the Shanghai Composite posting its sixth weekly decline on uneven Chinese economic data.  At the time of writing, one US Dollar (USD) buys 18.33 Mexican Pesos, EUR/MXN is trading at 19.56 and GBP/MXN at 23.17. Mexican Peso regains investors confidence after cabinet choices The Mexican Peso strengthened on Thursday after Claudia Sheinbaum’s announcement of six of her cabinet ministers was well received by markets. The list includes several leading academics and public servants who served with her during her time as Mayor of Mexico City.  Heading up the Economy Ministry will be Marcelo Luis Ebrard Casaubón, the former head of Foreign Affairs under President Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Ebrard Casaubón left the ministry in 2023 to run against Sheinbaum for the Morena party nomination. He has a long background in government administration and was President of the United Nations Global Network on Safer Cities, which focuses on fostering sustainable development. He thus shares Sheinbaum’s concerns about climate change.  “Ebrard will have to take on the renewal of a free trade agreement with the United States and Canada and increase foreign investment, another well-received announcement,” said Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic Analysis at Banco Base, to Associated Press (AP) News. Siller added that despite the appointment, market concerns had “not disappeared” following the election.  For the other roles, Sheinbaum chose Juan Ramón de la Fuente, former rector of her alma mater the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), as Secretary of Foreign Affairs.  Alicia Bárcena will serve as Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources.  Rosaura Ruiz Gutiérrez, a biologist who worked at UNAM and under Sheinbaum when she was Mayor of Mexico City, was chosen as head of a new ministry overseeing science, humanities, technology and innovation.  Ernestina Godoy, the Chief Prosecutor for Mexico City, was chosen as Sheinbaum’s legal adviser and Julio Berdegué Sacristán, an agronomist with a long academic trajectory, was her choice for the Secretary of Agriculture and Rural Development, reported Associated Press News.  High interest rates have Peso’s back – Rabobank The Mexican Peso is likely to remain supported by the relatively high interest rates in Mexico (11.00%) which make it one of the most attractive currencies to buy in the carry trade, according to Christian Lawrence, Senior Strategist at Rabobank.  The “carry trade” is a type of investment in which investors borrow in a currency with low interest rates, like the Japanese Yen (JPY), and buy a currency with a high interest rate like the Mexican Peso.  “The main driver of MXN outperformance has been its position as the world’s most attractive carry currency and that remains true and will remain true in the coming months,” Lawrence told FXStreet.  This also makes it expensive for most traders to hold shorts positions in the Mexican Peso for long periods of time, he adds, reducing the chances of a long-term bearish change in trend. Banxico to leave rates unchanged in July – Standard Chartered  The Mexican Peso is likely to continue benefiting from its relatively high interest-rate differentials as the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will probably not make a further interest-rate cut at its June 27 meeting – as had previously been expected – analysts at Standard Chartered (SC) say in a note on Thursday. “We now expect Banco de México (Banxico) to stay on hold instead of cutting by 25bps at its 27 June meeting, amid sharp currency depreciation driven by elevated political noise and fiscal uncertainty,” says the bank.  Currency depreciation will lead to imported inflation, according to SC, which will add to existing stubborn inflation in Mexico. This, in turn, will prevent the Banxico from pressing the trigger on rate cuts, supporting the Peso in the process.  Technical Analysis: USD/MXN continues correcting USD/MXN continues leaking lower after rolling over from its 18.99 peak reached on June 12.  Whilst it is possible the correction could have further to run, the short and medium-term trends are still bullish, suggesting price will eventually turn around and start rising again. The next target higher is situated at 19.22 (March 2023 high). USD/MXN Daily Chart A break above June 14 high at 18.68 would provide additional confirmation of more upside towards the target at 19.22. A break below 18.20 (June 10 low), however, would change the tone of the chart to one that is more bearish in the short-term. From there the next stop down could be 18.11.  The direction of the long-term trend remains in doubt after the break above the October 2023 high. Previous to that, it was bearish. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 51.2 in May to 51.4 in June, beating the market consensus of 51.3.

UK Services PMI unexpectedly declines to 51.2 in June.Manufacturing PMI in the UK rises to 51.4 in June.GBP/USD holds lower ground near 1.2650 after mixed UK business PMIs.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 51.2 in May to 51.4 in June, beating the market consensus of 51.3.

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.3) in June: Actual (51.4)

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 51.2, below expectations (53) in June

United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI below forecasts (53.1) in June: Actual (51.7)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector downturn gathered momentum again while the services sector activity deteriorated in June, according to the data from the HCOB's latest purchasing managers index survey published on Friday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 in June, missing 47.9 estimate.Bloc’s Services PMI dipped to 52.2 in June vs. 53.5 anticipated.EUR/USD keeps losses below 1.0700 after German, Eurozone PMI data.The Eurozone manufacturing sector downturn gathered momentum again while the services sector activity deteriorated in June, according to the data from the HCOB's latest purchasing managers index survey published on Friday. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped from 47.3 in May to 45.6 in June, missing the market forecast of 47.9.

Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.6, below expectations (53.5) in June

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.6 below forecasts (47.9) in June

Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.8, below expectations (52.5) in June

S&P Global preliminary PMIs are expected to confirm ongoing expansion in the US private sector’s business activity in June.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}S&P Global preliminary PMIs are expected to confirm ongoing expansion in the US private sector’s business activity in June.Survey details on inflation and employment will be scrutinized by market participants.EUR/USD needs to clear 1.0790-1.0800 to attract buyers. S&P Global will issue flash estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for June, a monthly survey of business activity, on Friday. The survey is expected to show that the economic activity in the private sector continued to expand at a moderate pace. In May, S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 54.5 from 51.3 in April. The Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 51.3 from 50.0, while the Services PMI climbed to 54.8 from 51.3. Assessing the survey’s findings, “the US economic upturn has accelerated again after two months of slower growth, with the early PMI data signaling the fastest expansion for just over two years in May,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.  Regarding the inflation dynamics, Williamson noted that selling price inflation ticked higher in May. “The main inflationary impetus is now coming from manufacturing rather than services, meaning rates of inflation for costs and selling prices are now somewhat elevated by pre-pandemic standards in both sectors to suggest that the final mile down to the Fed’s 2% target still seems elusive,” he elaborated further. What to expect from the next S&P Global PMI report? PMI surveys are widely accepted as forward-looking or leading indicators. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) clings to a data-dependent approach to policymaking, investors will pay close attention to PMI data heading into the weekend.  The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge lower to 51.0 from 51.3 in May, and the Services PMI is expected to retreat to 53.7 from 54.8. A reading above 50.0 presents an expansion in the sector’s business activity. When will June flash US S&P Global PMIs be released and how could they affect EUR/USD? The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI reports will be issued on Friday, June 21, at 13:45 GMT.  In case either the Manufacturing or the Services PMI unexpectedly falls below 50.0 and points to contraction, the initial market reaction could make it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand and help EUR/USD edge higher. On the other hand, the USD could gather strength if there is a positive surprise in either PMI print. Focus will shift to the underlying details on employment and inflation developments if PMIs come in near analysts’ estimates. In case surveys highlight higher input inflation, investors could refrain from pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and trigger a leg lower in EUR/USD. A significant negative contribution to either PMI from employment could cause the USD to come under selling pressure and provide a boost to the pair.FXStreet Analyst Yohay Elam thinks that upbeat PMI data would hurt Gold and support the US Dollar, while soft figures would have the opposite impact. “Stocks might follow the US Dollar if the data is weak – I expect investors to take profits off the table ahead of the weekend,” he adds.  In the meantime, Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD needs to climb above 1.0790-1.0800, where the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages are located, and confirm that area as support to attract technical buyers. In this scenario, the pair could target 1.0900 (static level, psychological level) and 1.0950 (static level from March).” “On the downside, sellers could take action with a drop below 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the uptrend from mid-April) and cause EUR/USD to slide toward 1.0600 (static level).” Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 21, 2024 13:45 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 54.5Source: S&P Global Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.  

Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The German manufacturing sector contraction unexpectedly deepened in June while the services sector also lost its expansionary momentum, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Friday.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dipped to 43.4 in June vs. 46.4 estimate.Services PMI for the German economy fell to 53.5 in June vs. 54.4 forecast.EUR/USD falls further below 1.0700 after weak German PMIs.The German manufacturing sector contraction unexpectedly deepened in June while the services sector also lost its expansionary momentum, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Friday. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse arrived at 43.4 this month, deteriorating from May’s 45.4 while much below the expected 46.4 readout. more to come ...

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 43.4 below forecasts (46.4) in June

Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 53.5, below expectations (54.4) in June

Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (52.7) in June: Actual (50.6)

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.3, below expectations (46.8) in June

France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 48.2, below expectations (49.5) in June

France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50) in June: Actual (48.8)

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher in Friday’s London session as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data for May.

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The report showed that monthly Retail Sales rebounded, growing at a robust 2.9%, more than the 1.5% expected. On year, Retail Sales surprisingly rose by 1.3% while investors expected them to have declined by 0.9%. Retail Sales are an indicator measuring consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. A significant improvement in sales at retail stores despite the Bank of England's (BoE) maintaining higher interest rates indicates strong demand but also increasing price pressures in the pipeline. This, if sustained, could be a headache for the BoE, which is focusing on achieving price stability. On Thursday, the BoE kept interest rates steady at 5.25% in a 7-2 vote split, as expected. BoE policymakers acknowledged the return of headline inflation to the bank’s target of 2% in three years but said that won’t be enough as price pressures in the service sector are still too high. Currently, financial markets expect that the BoE will start reducing interest rates in August, which means there will be no rate cuts before parliamentary elections. Pre-election polls show the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is behind the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points, Reuters reports. Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary UK's S&P Global/CIPS PMI data for June, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show that the Composite PMI barely rises. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling edges higher against US Dollar The Pound Sterling rises to 1.2670 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair rises due to strong UK Retail Sales data and a modest correction in the US Dollar. The US Dollar drops as a recent decline in the United States (US) inflation and Retail Sales data for May has led to rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Fed Fund Futures pricing data shows a 64% chance for rate cuts in September. The CME FedWatch tool also shows that there will be two rate cuts this year against one signaled by policymakers in their latest projections. Contrary to market expectations, Fed policymakers continue to argue in favor of one rate cut this year. Officials say they want to see inflation declining for months before lowering interest rates. In Friday’s session, the US Dollar will dance to the tunes of the US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The Composite PMI is expected to decline, although remaining above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, due to slowing growth in manufacturing and the service sector. As the PMI data gives clues about the economic health and overall demand, a weak number would indicate that the economy is off from boil, boosting Fed rate cuts bets for September. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains below 20-day and 50-day EMAsThe Pound Sterling finds a temporary cushion near 1.2670 after the release of the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for May. However, the near-term appeal is uncertain as the GBP/USD pair is below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.2700 and 1.2670, respectively.The Cable struggles to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1.2667, plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back into the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the upside momentum has faded. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 21: The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient early Friday after posting gains against its major rivals on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1.8svh}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 21: The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient early Friday after posting gains against its major rivals on Thursday. S&P Global will release preliminary June Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for Germany, the UK, the Eurozone and the US later in the day. May Existing Home Sales from the US and May Retail Sales data from Canada will also be watched closely by market participants ahead of the weekend. The negative shift seen in risk mood helped the USD gather strength in the American session on Thursday. After edging lower in the first three days of the week, the USD Index gained 0.4% on Thursday and erased all of this week's losses. In the European morning, the USD Index holds steady slightly above 105.50. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield continues to fluctuate above 4.2%.  US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.07% 0.23% 1.02% -0.45% -0.69% 0.13% 0.13% EUR 0.07%   0.32% 1.11% -0.38% -0.72% 0.25% 0.20% GBP -0.23% -0.32%   0.87% -0.70% -1.05% -0.10% -0.09% JPY -1.02% -1.11% -0.87%   -1.35% -1.69% -0.73% -0.82% CAD 0.45% 0.38% 0.70% 1.35%   -0.31% 0.59% 0.60% AUD 0.69% 0.72% 1.05% 1.69% 0.31%   1.03% 0.96% NZD -0.13% -0.25% 0.10% 0.73% -0.59% -1.03%   0.00% CHF -0.13% -0.20% 0.09% 0.82% -0.60% -0.96% -0.01%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Bank of England (BoE) left its monetary policy settings unchanged following the June meeting, as expected. The optimistic tone on inflation outlook, however, made it difficult for Pound Sterling to find demand. GBP/USD broke below 1.2700 and closed the day deep in negative territory on Thursday. Early Friday, the pair consolidates its losses slightly above 1.2650. In the meantime, the UK's Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose 2.9% on a monthly basis in May. This reading surpassed the market expectation for a 1.5% increase by a wide margin. During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in May, following the 2.5% increase recorded in April. USD/JPY gained more than 0.5% on Thursday and continued to stretch higher in the Asian session on Friday. At the time of press, the pair was trading at its highest level since April 29, when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in foreign exchange (FX) markets, at around 159.00. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that he will work with colleagues to mitigate damage to economies from FX fluctuations, adding excessive and disorderly FX moves could hurt economies. Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI in Australia declined to 47.5 in June's flash estimate from 49.7 in May. Services PMI edged lower to 51.0 from 52.5. These readings failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in AUD/USD and the pair was last seen trading in a tight range slightly above 0.6650.EUR/USD closed in negative territory on Thursday but managed to stabilize above 1.0700 in the European morning on Friday.Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and gained more than 1% on Thursday to reach a fresh two-week high above $2,360. Early Friday, XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $2,360. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (100) in June: Actual (99)

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday that “Japan's economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs.” Additional quotes Underlying inflation likely to gradually accelerate.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday that “Japan's economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs.” Additional quotes Underlying inflation likely to gradually accelerate. Uncertainty surrounding Japan's economic, price outlook remains high. Must be vigilant to financial, FX market developments and their impact on Japan’s economy, prices. BoJ will decide specifics on bond tapering plan, size of reducting in bond buying will likely be significant. Japan's financial system remains stable as a whole. BoJ will adjust degree of monetary easing if economy, prices move in line with our forecasts. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is adding 0.04% on the day to trade near 159.00. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers near $30.60 on Friday during the early European trading hours.

Silver price edges lower to $30.60 amid the firmer US Dollar on Friday. The weaker US data boosted bets for rate cuts from the Fed this year, weighing on the Silver price. Traders will take more cues from the advanced reading of US S&P Global PMI data for June. Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers near $30.60 on Friday during the early European trading hours. The white metal edges lower amid the stronger US Dollar (USD). However, the downside might be limited as the weaker US economic data have triggered the expectation of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle later this year. Later on Friday, the first reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports for June will be published.

Data released by the US Department of Labour showed that US citizens who applied for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 238,000 for the week ending June 15. This figure was below the market consensus of 235,000 and lower than 243,000 in the previous week. This figure indicated a moderation in the labour market and raised the speculation for a Fed rate cut, following the weaker Retail Sales data last week. 

Traders have priced in nearly 64% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. A lower interest rate generally lifts the Silver price as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. “The market is starting to increasingly expect the U.S. central bank to start its easing program. I suspect we might be getting some long positions getting installed into the market,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

The advanced reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports for June might offer some hints about economic activity in the United States. Any signs of improvement could lift the Greenback and create a headwind for the USD-denominated Silver.  XAG/USD Overview Today last price 30.58 Today Daily Change -0.15 Today Daily Change % -0.49 Today daily open 30.73   Trends Daily SMA20 30.26 Daily SMA50 29.11 Daily SMA100 26.68 Daily SMA200 24.92   Levels Previous Daily High 30.79 Previous Daily Low 29.71 Previous Weekly High 30.26 Previous Weekly Low 28.66 Previous Monthly High 32.51 Previous Monthly Low 26.02 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 30.38 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 30.12 Daily Pivot Point S1 30.03 Daily Pivot Point S2 29.33 Daily Pivot Point S3 28.95 Daily Pivot Point R1 31.11 Daily Pivot Point R2 31.49 Daily Pivot Point R3 32.2    

FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 1.4b 1.0650 1.3b 1.0660 2.8b 1.0695 667m 1.0720 712m 1.0775 925m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2740 2b 1.2780 1.1b - USD/JPY: USD amounts 156.00 1b 156.75 800m 157.00 1b 157.25 830m 157.50 1.5b 158.25 736m 159.00 1b - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8900 1.4b 0.8980 500m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3650 1b 1.3675 738m 1.3710 716m 1.3740 605m 1.3800 1.5b - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8400 630m 0.8475 898m .

FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 1.4b 1.0650 1.3b 1.0660 2.8b 1.0695 667m 1.0720 712m 1.0775 925m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2740 2b 1.2780 1.1b - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      156.00 1b 156.75 800m 157.00 1b 157.25 830m 157.50 1.5b 158.25 736m 159.00 1b - USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.8900 1.4b 0.8980 500m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3650 1b 1.3675 738m 1.3710 716m 1.3740 605m 1.3800 1.5b - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts         0.8400 630m 0.8475 898m

The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales rebounded 2.9% over the month in May after falling 1.8% in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday.

The UK Retail Sales rebounded 2.9% MoM in May, a big beat.Monthly Core Retail Sales for the UK jumped 2.9% in May.GBP/USD holds gains above 1.2650 after upbeat UK data.The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales rebounded 2.9% over the month in May after falling 1.8% in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets predicted a 1.5% uptick in the reported month. The Core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, rose 2.9% MoM, against the previous decline of 1.4% and the market forecast of 1.3%. The annual Retail Sales in the UK rose 1.3% in May versus April’s 2.3% drop while the Core Retail Sales increased by 1.2% in the same month versus -2.5% previous. Both figures outpaced expectations. Market reaction to UK Retail Sales reportGBP/USD picks up fresh bids on strong UK data release, up 0.10% on the day to trade near 1.2670, as of writing.

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above forecasts (£-14.8B) in May: Actual (£14.1B)

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (1.3%) in May

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (1.5%) in May: Actual (2.9%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above forecasts (-0.8%) in May: Actual (1.2%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.3% above expectations (-0.9%) in May

The USD/JPY pair clings to gains near 159.00 in Friday’s Asian session after a winning spell for six trading sessions.

USD/JPY moves toward 160.00 on multiple tailwinds.The BoJ could further delay plans to trim bond-buying as core inflation decelerates.The US Dollar will be guided by the preliminary US S&P Global PMIs for June.The USD/JPY pair clings to gains near 159.00 in Friday’s Asian session after a winning spell for six trading sessions. The asset is expected to extend its upside towards a multi-year high near 160.00 as investors expect that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could further delay plans of reducing the amount of bond-buying beyond the July meeting. In the latest monetary policy meeting, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that policymakers decided to delay plans to trim bond-buying and hike interest rates further to the July meeting. Policymakers also communicated their concerns toward inflation expectations due to sheer weakness in the Japanese Yen, which has made Japanese exports competitive in the global market and has increased import costs. The consequences of a weak Japanese Yen could result in high inflation in the economy. However, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for May appear to narrate a different story. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, decelerated to 2.1% from the former reading of 2.4%. The report showed that National CPI, excluding Fresh Food, grew at a slower pace of 2.5% from expectations of 2.6% but was higher than the prior release of 2.2%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) edges down to 105.50 but remains broadly firm as investors expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lag behind other central banks in an attempt to pivot to the policy-normalization process. Fed policymakers have already signaled that there will be only one rate cut this year, which is supposed to be announced in the last quarter. Contrary to the Fed’s latest interest rate projections, financial markets expect there will be two rate cuts, and the policy expansion process will start from the September meeting. Going forward, investors will focus on the US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The agency is expected to show a decline in the Composite PMI due to weakness in manufacturing as well as the service sector. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 158.88 Today Daily Change -0.06 Today Daily Change % -0.04 Today daily open 158.94   Trends Daily SMA20 157.01 Daily SMA50 156.01 Daily SMA100 153.1 Daily SMA200 150.29   Levels Previous Daily High 158.95 Previous Daily Low 157.84 Previous Weekly High 158.26 Previous Weekly Low 155.72 Previous Monthly High 157.99 Previous Monthly Low 151.86 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 158.52 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 158.26 Daily Pivot Point S1 158.2 Daily Pivot Point S2 157.46 Daily Pivot Point S3 157.09 Daily Pivot Point R1 159.31 Daily Pivot Point R2 159.69 Daily Pivot Point R3 160.43    

India HSBC Composite PMI above forecasts (60.7) in June: Actual (60.9)

India HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 57.5 to 58.5 in June

India HSBC Services PMI came in at 60.4, above forecasts (60) in June

The GBP/USD pair is seen oscillating in a range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidating the previous day's post-Bank of England (BoE) decline to over a one-month low.

GBP/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery and hangs near a one-month trough.Bets for an early rate cut by the BoE undermine the GBP and act as a headwind for the major. September Fed rate cut bets cap the upside for the USD and help limit losses for spot prices.A break below 100-day SMA is needed to support prospects for a further depreciating move. The GBP/USD pair is seen oscillating in a range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidating the previous day's post-Bank of England (BoE) decline to over a one-month low. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.2600s and seem vulnerable to prolonging the recent retracement slide from a multi-month peak, around the 1.2860 region touched last week.  The markets started pricing in a greater chance of a rate cut in August after the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that it was "good news" that official figures had shown inflation was back at its 2% target. This might continue to undermine the British Pound (GBP) ahead of the UK election on July 4 and validate the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up amid expectations for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, is seen lending some support to the currency pair.  From a technical perspective, bearish traders need to wait for some follow-through selling below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged near the 1.2640-1.2635 region, before placing fresh bets. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, the GBP/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 1.2600 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the very important 200-day SMA, around the 1.2560-1.2555 region en route to the 1.2500 psychological mark and the May monthly swing low, around the 1.2445 area.  On the flip side, any attempted recovery might now confront immediate resistance near the 1.2685 region ahead of the 1.2700 mark and the 1.2715-1.2720 supply zone. This is closely followed by the weekly top, around the 1.2740 area, which if cleared could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the GBP/USD pair to the 1.2800 round figure. The subsequent strength should pave the way for a move towards retesting the monthly swing high, around the 1.2860 zone, en route to the YTD peak, around the 1.2900 neighborhood touched in March. GBP/USD daily chartGBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2661 Today Daily Change 0.0003 Today Daily Change % 0.02 Today daily open 1.2658   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2741 Daily SMA50 1.262 Daily SMA100 1.264 Daily SMA200 1.2555   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2724 Previous Daily Low 1.2655 Previous Weekly High 1.286 Previous Weekly Low 1.2657 Previous Monthly High 1.2801 Previous Monthly Low 1.2446 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2681 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2698 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2634 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.261 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2565 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2703 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2748 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2772    

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices tick lower during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lack follow-through and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since late April touched the previous day.

WTI edges lower amid a modest USD strength, albeit lacks follow-through selling.Expectations about tightening global supply and geopolitical tensions lend support.Rising bets for a September rate cut by the Fed contribute to limiting the downside.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices tick lower during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lack follow-through and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since late April touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades around the $81.00/barrel mark and seems poised to register strong gains for the second successive week.  Data published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude stockpiles and reaffirmed expectations about a tighter market in the second half of the year. This, along with concerns that a wider Middle East conflict will lead to potential disruption to global supplies from the key producing region, continues to act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices and validates the near-term positive outlook. Meanwhile, investors have been pricing in a greater chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September and the bets were further reinforced by Thursday's softer US macro data. This turns out to be another factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices, though a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by the overnight sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields, might cap further gains for the USD-denominated commodity.  Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders. Moreover, the recent breakout through technically important 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) suggests that the path of least resistance for Crude Oil prices is to the upside. Hence, any meaningful slide is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited. Traders now look forward to the release of the flash global PMIs for short-term opportunities. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 81.03 Today Daily Change -0.09 Today Daily Change % -0.11 Today daily open 81.12   Trends Daily SMA20 77.66 Daily SMA50 79.32 Daily SMA100 79.4 Daily SMA200 79.04   Levels Previous Daily High 81.4 Previous Daily Low 80.31 Previous Weekly High 78.98 Previous Weekly Low 75.03 Previous Monthly High 81.25 Previous Monthly Low 76.04 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 80.98 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 80.72 Daily Pivot Point S1 80.48 Daily Pivot Point S2 79.85 Daily Pivot Point S3 79.39 Daily Pivot Point R1 81.57 Daily Pivot Point R2 82.03 Daily Pivot Point R3 82.66    

The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday due to the modest decline of the US Dollar (USD).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee edges higher on the modest decline of the US Dollar on Friday. Foreign inflows into Indian bonds could lift the INR, while higher crude oil prices might weigh on it. The first reading of June’s PMI data from both India and the US is due on Friday. The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday due to the modest decline of the US Dollar (USD). The significant inflows into the Indian bond market ahead of India’s inclusion in the JPMorgan Emerging Market bond index at the end of this month are likely to boost the local currency in the near term. 

On the other hand, the renewed Greenback demand from local importers, likely capital outflows, and the weakening in the Chinese Yuan might exert some selling pressure on the INR. Additionally, the rally in crude oil prices might drag the INR lower as India is the third-largest consumer of crude oil in the world. Investors will keep an eye on the first reading of the Indian HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Friday. Also, the US S&P Global PMI reports for June will be released.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee edges higher amid foreign inflows into Indian markets Foreign investors have sold a net of US$2.6 billion of local equities so far this calendar year, while US Dollar inflows into the debt markets have been strong at US$7.5 billion ahead of India’s inclusion in the JPMorgan Emerging Market bond index. Foreign inflows into Indian bonds could reach a decade-high of $2 billion around June 28, when they will be included in a widely-tracked JPMorgan index, although the RBI will lap up most of the USD to avoid the volatility in the INR, bankers said.  The preliminary India’s HSBC Services PMI is expected to drop to 60.0 in June from 60.2 in May.  US citizens who applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 238K in the week ending June 15. This figure was lower than the previous weekly gain of 243K and below the market consensus of 235K.  US Building Permits declined by 3.6% MoM in May from 1.44 million to 1.386 million, while Housing Starts for the same period dropped by 5.5% from 1.352 million to 1.277 million. Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank is well-positioned with the necessary firepower for the job, but will learn a lot more over the next several months.   Technical analysis: USD/INR holds bullish bias in the longer term The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the constructive vibe unchanged as it holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The bullish momentum is also supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains above the 50-midline, supporting the buyers for the time being.  Any follow-through buying will attract some buyers to the all-time high of 83.75. The next barrier will emerge at the 84.00 psychological level. 

On the downside, the initial support level for the pair is seen near 83.60, a low of June 20. The potential contention level to watch is the 83.30-83.35 region, the resistance-turned-support level, and the 100-day EMA. Extended losses will expose the 83.00 round figure. 

US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.07% -0.01% -0.01% 0.03% 0.02% 0.04% 0.03%EUR0.07%   0.07% 0.06% 0.10% 0.09% 0.11% 0.09%GBP-0.01% -0.07%   -0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.03%CAD0.01% -0.05% 0.01%   0.04% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01%AUD-0.03% -0.09% -0.04% -0.04%   0.01% 0.00% 0.00%JPY-0.02% -0.11% -0.04% -0.03% 0.02%   0.04% 0.01%NZD-0.04% -0.11% -0.05% -0.05% -0.02% 0.00%   -0.01%CHF-0.03% -0.10% -0.03% -0.04% -0.01% 0.01% 0.01%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidates the previous day's strong move up to a two-week high, around the $2,360-2,365 area.

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The near-term bias, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of bulls amid the case for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The expectations were reaffirmed by softer US economic data released on Thursday, which added to the recent signs of a slowing economy. This, along with a convincing breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the upside.  Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish outlook on Thursday lifted bets for an interest rate cut in August. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to start cutting interest rates earlier this month and the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) second rate cut of 2024 on Thursday further validate the near-term positive outlook for the non-yielding Gold price. That said, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields and the underlying bullish tone across the global equity markets turn out to be key factors acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains on track to register gains for the second straight week.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price could benefit from bets for two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Disappointing US economic data released on Thursday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will start its easing program soon and lifted the Gold price to a two-week high.  The US Department of Labor (DoL) reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance fell to 238K in the week ending June 15 compared to the 235K expected. Moreover, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said Housing Starts declined 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982K units in May, and Building Permits fell 2.9% to 949K units. Adding to this, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, though it remained in positive territory for a fifth successive month. This comes on top of tepid US Retail Sales figures for May and signs of easing inflation, which keeps a September rate cut on the table and should lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets are also pricing in the possibility of another interest rate cut at the December policy meeting despite the Fed policymakers' hawkish outlook, indicating only one rate cut this year.  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that the US economy has proven to be remarkably resilient and that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that the US central bank has sufficient firepower to address policy issues, but it will have to maintain a strict data-dependent approach. The US Treasury bond yields shook off softer US data and rose on Thursday in anticipation of new supply next week, pushing the US Dollar to the weekly top and capping gains for the XAU/USD.  Investors now look forward to the release of flash PMI prints for cues about the health of the global economy, which should provide some impetus ahead of the US Existing Home Sales data. Technical Analysis: Gold price seems poised to climb further, 50-day SMA breakout in play From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained close above the 50-day SMA could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction, supports prospects for a further appreciating move. Hence, a subsequent move towards testing the next relevant hurdle, near the $2,378-2380 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The Gold price could eventually aim to reclaim the $2,400 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,345-2,344 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,336-2,335 region. A convincing break below the latter might expose the $2,300 round figure and the $2,285 horizontal support. Some follow-through selling will set the stage for the resumption of the recent retracement slide from the all-time peak touched in May and drag the Gold price further towards the $2,254-2,253 zone.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1196, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1192 and 7.2698 Reuters estimates.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1196, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1192 and 7.2698 Reuters estimates.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that he will work with colleagues to mitigate damage to economies from foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations, adding excessive and disorderly FX moves could hurt economies Key quotes To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with South Korean counterpart.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that he will work with colleagues to mitigate damage to economies from foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations, adding excessive and disorderly FX moves could hurt economies Key quotes To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with South Korean counterpart. Will communicate closely with the US, and other countries on FX based on G7 agreement that excessive, disorderly FX moves could hurt economies. Collaborates with colleagues to mitigate damage to economies from foreign exchange fluctuations. Don't think the US sees Japan's FX policy as problematic. Market reaction The Japanese Yen remains near a seven-month low against the US Dollar following the verbal intervention. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.04% higher on the day at 159.00.  

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that stable foreign change (FX) levels are desirable.

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Stable Forex levels are desirable

Important that forex rates reflect fundamentals

Will continue to closely monitor moves in the forex market

Emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong confidence in the yen.

Emphasizes the importance of stable forex movements Market reaction The Japanese Yen hits a seven-month low against the US Dollar. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.07% higher on the day at 159.05.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with mild gains in Thursday’s early Asian session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds positive ground on Thursday. The Aussie edges higher as Australian PMI reading has maintained expansion in June. Investors await the advanced US S&P Global PMI data, which is due on Friday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with mild gains in Thursday’s early Asian session. The Aussie edges higher after the recent Australian Judo Bank PMI report suggested that business activity is still growing despite a slower pace than in March and April. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish hold on Tuesday is likely to underpin the AUD in the near term. 

However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israeli officials reiterated that the country is ready for an all-out war against Hezbollah, might boost safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar (USD). The advanced US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will take center stage on Friday. If the US business activity showed an improvement in June, this could further support the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar remains firm after the country’s PMI data Advanced Australia's Judo Bank Composite PMI declined in June to 50.6 from 52.1 in May. The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.5 in June from 49.7 in the previous reading, weaker than the 50.6 expected. The Services PMI fell to a five-month low of 51.0 in June compared to 51.2 prior, according to the Judo Bank and S&P Global.  US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 15 rose to 238K from the previous reading of 243K, above the market consensus of 235K.  US Building Permits dropped by 3.6% MoM in May from 1.44 million to 1.386 million, while Housing Starts for the same period fell by 5.5% from 1.352 million to 1.277 million. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank is well-positioned with necessary firepower for job, but will have to maintain a strict data-dependent approach before considering cutting rates.  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that it could take one to two years for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target, per Reuters. Technical Analysis: AUD/USD’s constructive bias remains in place The Australian Dollar trades on a stronger note on the day. The AUD/USD pair has remained stuck within a descending trend channel since May 14. The pair maintains a positive outlook beyond the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to show bullish momentum, suggesting resistance is more likely to hold than to break. 

A decisive break above 0.6675 (the upper boundary of the descending trend channel) could send the pair up to the 0.6700 round mark en route to  0.6760 (high of January 4). 

In the bearish case, the key contention level for AUD/USD is seen at 0.6592 (100-day EMA) A breach of the mentioned level will see more loss to 0.6565 (the lower limit of the channel). The additional downside filter to watch is 0.6510, a low of March 22, followed by 0.6465, a low of May 1. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

The USD/JPY pair oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidates its recent gains to the 159.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since late April touched the last hour.

USD/JPY remains supported near its highest level since April touched earlier this Friday.The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty and mixed National CPI from Japan undermine the JPY.September Fed rate cut bets cap gains for the USD and the pair amid intervention fears.The USD/JPY pair oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday and consolidates its recent gains to the 159.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since late April touched the last hour. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the currency pair, though intervention fears might cap the upside.  The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be undermined by the disappointment led by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) lack of commitment to hiking interest rates in the near term. Furthermore, data released earlier this Friday showed that Japan's core-core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed for the ninth straight month and eased to the 2.1% yearly rate from the 2.4% previous. This adds to uncertainty if the BoJ will hike interest rates in July or later in the year, which, along with the underlying bullish sentiment across the global equity markets, dents demand for the safe-haven JPY and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.  The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stands tall near the top end of its weekly trading range in the wake of the overnight sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields. This results in the further widening of the US-Japan rate differential, which is seen as another factor weighing on the JPY and lending support to the USD/JPY pair. Investors, meanwhile, remain on alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency. Moreover, rising bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September might keep a lid on the Greenback and any further gains for the currency pair.  Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair remains on track to end in positive territory for the second straight week as investors now look forward to the release of the global flash PMI prints for some meaningful impetus. Apart from this, the release of Existing Home Sales data from the US, along with the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, might further contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 158.96 Today Daily Change 0.02 Today Daily Change % 0.01 Today daily open 158.94   Trends Daily SMA20 157.01 Daily SMA50 156.01 Daily SMA100 153.1 Daily SMA200 150.29   Levels Previous Daily High 158.95 Previous Daily Low 157.84 Previous Weekly High 158.26 Previous Weekly Low 155.72 Previous Monthly High 157.99 Previous Monthly Low 151.86 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 158.52 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 158.26 Daily Pivot Point S1 158.2 Daily Pivot Point S2 157.46 Daily Pivot Point S3 157.09 Daily Pivot Point R1 159.31 Daily Pivot Point R2 159.69 Daily Pivot Point R3 160.43    

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI down to 49.8 in June from previous 53.8

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 below forecasts (50.6) in June

EUR/USD fell back to familiar technical levels on Thursday, clunking down to the 1.0700 handle after a miss in US economic figures bolstered the Greenback.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD backslid to the 1.0700 handle on Thursday, erasing the week’s gains.EU PMI figures expected to rise slightly on Friday.US PMIs to wrap up the trading week, expected to tick lower.EUR/USD fell back to familiar technical levels on Thursday, clunking down to the 1.0700 handle after a miss in US economic figures bolstered the Greenback. Friday markets loom ahead with a packed data docket, with Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for both the EU and the US on the cards.Forex today: All the looks will be on PMI reportsIn May, Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 0.0% on a month-over-month basis, down from the previous 0.2% and missing the expected increase to 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI also came in below expectations, declining to -2.2% for the year ending in May. Although the annual figure improved from the previous -3.3%, it still fell short of the forecasted recovery to -2.0%.Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims rose more than estimated last weekThe latest US Initial Jobless Claims numbers came in higher than expected, with 238,000 people filing for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 14, compared to the revised previous week's figure of 243,000. This increase also pushed the four-week average up to 242,750 from the previous 227,250. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for June dropped to 1.3 from 4.5, falling short of the expected 5.0. Additionally, US Housing Starts decreased to 1.277 million new residential construction projects in May, lower than the forecast of 1.37 million and the revised previous month's figure of 1.352 million. Coming up on Friday: EU & US PMI prints to close out the week Friday’s pan-EU HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity surveys for June are expected to recover slightly. The EU’s June Manufacturing PMI is expected to move to 47.9 from 47.3, while the Services PMI component is forecast to rise to 53.5 from 53.2. On the US side, Manufacturing and Services PMIs are both forecast to tick lower, with Manufacturing expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.3 and Services sliding to 53.7 from 54.8. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD continues to follow technicals lower, driving intraday action further down the charts as the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) presses down from 1.0750. The Fiber is bumping into the 1.0700 handle as selling pressure keeps the pair in reach of last week’s low point just below 1.0670. EUR/USD continues to stagnate on daily candlesticks, and any fresh selling pressure will send the pair back into 2024 lows set in April near the 1.0600 handle. On the high side, a bullish recovery will run aground of the 200-day EMA at 1.0800. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0705 Today Daily Change -0.0038 Today Daily Change % -0.35 Today daily open 1.0743   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0809 Daily SMA50 1.0768 Daily SMA100 1.0799 Daily SMA200 1.0789   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0753 Previous Daily Low 1.0725 Previous Weekly High 1.0852 Previous Weekly Low 1.0668 Previous Monthly High 1.0895 Previous Monthly Low 1.065 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0743 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0736 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0727 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0712 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0699 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0756 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0769 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0784    

Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose on an annualized basis, with headline CPI inflation climbing 2.8% YoY versus the previous print of 2.5%.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose on an annualized basis, with headline CPI inflation climbing 2.8% YoY versus the previous print of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation, or headline CPI inflation less volatile food prices, rose less than median market estimates, climbed 2.5% versus the previous 2.2% compared to the market forecast of 2.6%. Core-core Japanese CPI, or CPI inflation less both food and energy prices, eased back to 2.1% from the previous 2.4%. Japan's national-level CPI inflation print tends to be previewed by Tokyo CPI inflation several weeks prior, leaving a muted market impact from nationwide aggregated inflation figures. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 20, 2024 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.5%Consensus: 2.6%Previous: 2.2%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 2.5% below forecasts (2.6%) in May

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) declined to 2.1% in May from previous 2.4%

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.8% in May from previous 2.5%

Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, who will instruct the BoJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, said on Friday that he will take necessary action on foreign exchange (FX) if needed Key quotes To take necessary action on foreign exchange if needed.

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Sees no problem with Japan's approach in US report on foreign exchange.

Yen slightly strengthens against US Dollar 

FX intervention has been effective  Market reaction   At the time of writing, USD/JPY was trading at 158.85, losing 0.05% on the day. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures declined in June, with both the Manufacturing and Services components chalking in a fall back from previous periods.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures declined in June, with both the Manufacturing and Services components chalking in a fall back from previous periods. June's Australian Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.5 from 49.7, returning to familiar lows. The Services PMI also backslid but remained in positive territory, falling to a five-month low of 51.0 from 51.2. As noted by Judo Bank Chief Economist Warren Hogan, "The composite output index pulled back in June but remains in expansionary territory. The June flash reading was the lowest since January and has now eased back from the March high point. The June reading suggests that business activity is still growing, but slower than in March and April." Economic Indicator Judo Bank Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Judo Bank and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 20, 2024 23:00 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyActual: 50.6Consensus: -Previous: 52.1Source: S&P Global Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure around 1.3690 during the early Asian session on Friday.

USD/CAD trades in negative territory for the sixth consecutive day near 1.3690 in Friday’s early Asian session. Fed’s Birkin said central bank is well-positioned with necessary firepower for job but needs to maintain data-dependent approach.Higher crude oil prices due to renewed hopes of a summertime upswing in fuel demand support the Loonie. The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure around 1.3690 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair edges lower despite the rise of the USD Index (DXY) to four-day highs near 105.70. The rally of crude oil prices continues to underpin the commodity-linked Loonie. On Friday, the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will be in the stoplight. 

The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policymakers pushed out the timing of the first interest rate cut this year. Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank is well-positioned with the necessary firepower for the job, but will learn a lot more over the next several months. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%, per Reuters. 

The financial markets have priced in around 10% odds of a rate cut in July, rising to nearly 70% in September and fully priced in for November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Even though the recent US Retail Sales last week prompted the expectation of two rate cuts from the Fed this year, a strict data-dependent approach from Fed officials might cap the downside for the Greenback against its rivals. 

On the Loonie front, crude oil markets extend the rally on renewed hopes of a summertime upswing in fuel demand. It's worth noting that higher oil prices could underpin the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as Canada is the major crude oil exporter to the United States.
Furthermore, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate to 4.75% from 5% on June 5, the first cut in four years. The BoC Summary of Deliberations on Wednesday noted the risks of cutting too soon against the dangers of waiting too long. The BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that it’s “reasonable” to expect further rate cuts, but that the decline in interest rates will likely be gradual.  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3689 Today Daily Change -0.0015 Today Daily Change % -0.11 Today daily open 1.3704   Trends Daily SMA20 1.37 Daily SMA50 1.3698 Daily SMA100 1.3612 Daily SMA200 1.3583   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3726 Previous Daily Low 1.3698 Previous Weekly High 1.3792 Previous Weekly Low 1.368 Previous Monthly High 1.3783 Previous Monthly Low 1.359 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3709 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3715 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3693 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3681 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3665 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3721 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3737 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3749    

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -14, above forecasts (-16) in June

Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.5, below expectations (50.6) in June

Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI fell from previous 52.1 to 50.6 in June

Australia Judo Bank Services PMI down to 51 in June from previous 52.5

GBP/USD is poised for a bumper Friday session. Key UK data is due during the European market session, and US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity surveys set to wrap up the trading week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD eases back to 1.2650 as Sterling stumbles.UK Retail Sales, PMIs to close off the trading week with a bang.US PMI figures to add onto week’s data prints, expecting to soften.GBP/USD is poised for a bumper Friday session. Key UK data is due during the European market session, and US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity surveys set to wrap up the trading week. The Bank of England (BoE) held rates at 5.25% this week, with a stubbornly tepid stance on rate cuts that deflated broad-market rate cut expectations.Forex Today: All the looks will be on PMI reportsThe BoE was widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in June. However, there was a focus on recent services inflation and a vague aim to keep inflation "sustainably" lower, which has left the value of the Sterling uncertain. Additionally, the BoE expressed a willingness to maintain restrictive policies for as long as necessary and emphasized that although the UK labor market is looser than before, it still remains historically tight.Read more: BoE maintains policy rate at 5.25% as forecastA miss in US economic figures softened investor risk appetite on Thursday, headlined by a worse-than-expected print in US Initial Jobless Claims coming in higher than expected for the week ended June 14. Week-on-week unemployment claimants are still lower, printing at 238K versus the previous 243K (revised from 242K), but still came in above the four-week trending average of 242.75K, which itself also rose from the previous 227.25K. After the BoE voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25%, GBP traders will now focus on Friday's upcoming economic data. The scheduled releases include UK Retail Sales and updated S&P Global PMI figures for both the UK and the US. UK retail sales are expected to rebound to 1.5% MoM in May, compared to the previous decline of -2.3%. Additionally, UK PMIs are forecasted to show slight improvements. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 51.3 from 51.2, and the Services component is anticipated to rise to 53.0 from 52.9. US Manufacturing and Services PMIs are both forecast to tick lower, with Manufacturing expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.3 and Services sliding to 53.7 from 54.8. GBP/USD technical outlook The value of the Pound Sterling dropped below the 1.2700 mark against the US Dollar on Thursday, showing a decline and moving lower towards recent lows at 1.2657. Technical indicators suggest a potential continuation of this bearish trend as the price failed to stay above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2721. Further decreases in value are likely if there is no significant upward movement to reverse this trend. The daily candlestick chart confirms a bearish rejection from a supply zone above the 1.2800 mark, indicating a potential return to the 200-day EMA, which is currently around 1.2580. The technical support provided by the 50-day EMA at 1.2674 is getting weaker, and if bearish pressure continues, GBP/USD could drop back to the 2024 lows around the 1.2300 level. GBP/USD hourly chart GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2658 Today Daily Change -0.0062 Today Daily Change % -0.49 Today daily open 1.272   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2743 Daily SMA50 1.2618 Daily SMA100 1.264 Daily SMA200 1.2554   Levels Previous Daily High 1.274 Previous Daily Low 1.27 Previous Weekly High 1.286 Previous Weekly Low 1.2657 Previous Monthly High 1.2801 Previous Monthly Low 1.2446 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2725 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2716 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.27 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.268 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.266 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.274 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.276 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.278    

On Thursday, the NZD/JPY cross made further gains, moving past the previous resistance at 97.00 and setting a fresh cycle high.

The cross resumed its gains, establishing new cycle highs at levels exceeding 97.00.The daily chart continues to display resilience, increasing chances for the upward trend to persist.On Thursday, the NZD/JPY cross made further gains, moving past the previous resistance at 97.00 and setting a fresh cycle high. At the start of the week, support around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 96.30 held strong as buyers swiftly stepped in to overpower the sellers' efforts to breach this level. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for NZD/JPY currently stands at 62, denoting a climb from Wednesday's reading and overall positive momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for today prints decreasing red bars, signifying a reduction in selling pressure. NZD/JPY daily chart The bull's resolve to keep its position above the 20-day SMA remains steadfast. This, coupled with the resilience of the daily technical indicators, highlights a clear technical strength of the Kiwi over the Yen. The three consecutive failed attempts from the sellers to breach the 96.30 mark fuelled the buyers' momentum, which paved the way for the climb to fresh highs. Going forward, the trading sessions may witness the cross oscillate between the immediate support at 97.00 and the resistance target of 98.00. Close monitoring of the breach above the current consolidation range or a dip below the 20-SMA mark could potentially provide insights into future movements.   NZD/JPY Overview Today last price 97.25 Today Daily Change 0.33 Today Daily Change % 0.34 Today daily open 96.92   Trends Daily SMA20 96.42 Daily SMA50 94.34 Daily SMA100 92.83 Daily SMA200 91.06   Levels Previous Daily High 97.02 Previous Daily Low 96.66 Previous Weekly High 97.25 Previous Weekly Low 95.62 Previous Monthly High 96.74 Previous Monthly Low 90.83 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 96.8 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 96.88 Daily Pivot Point S1 96.71 Daily Pivot Point S2 96.51 Daily Pivot Point S3 96.36 Daily Pivot Point R1 97.07 Daily Pivot Point R2 97.22 Daily Pivot Point R3 97.42    

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin spoke to reports late Thursday, noting that the Fed has sufficient firepower to address policy issues looking forward, but will have to maintain a strict data-dependent approach as policymakers look to time rate cuts appropriately.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin spoke to reports late Thursday, noting that the Fed has sufficient firepower to address policy issues looking forward, but will have to maintain a strict data-dependent approach as policymakers look to time rate cuts appropriately. Key highlights The impact of Fed rate increases will hit in time. Need clearer inflation signals before rate cut. Data to determine further moves after initial rate cut. Fed Reserve is well-positioned with necessary firepower for job.

The GBP/JPY remained subdued on Thursday yet finished up 0.06%, virtually unchanged.

GBP/JPY remains upward biased with support from a bullish yet trendless RSI, hinting at stable rates.Key resistance at YTD high of 201.61 and the 202.00 mark.Key support levels include 201.00, Tenkan-Sen at 200.26, Senkou Span A at 199.71, and Kijun-Sen at 199.15.The GBP/JPY remained subdued on Thursday yet finished up 0.06%, virtually unchanged. As Friday’s Asian Pacific session begins, the cross trades at 201.11, flat. GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook According to the daily chart, the GBP/JPY remains upward biased and is backed by momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though trendless. This hints that the cross might remain at around current exchange rates amid the lack of catalysts and fears of Japanese authority's intervention. On the upside, the GBP/JPY first resistance would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at 201.61, ahead of the 202.00 mark. On further weakness, the cross could tumble below 201.00 and test the Tenkan-Sen at 200.26, the first support level, followed by the Senkou Span A at 199.71. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the Kijun-Sen at 199.15. GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily ChartGBP/JPY Overview Today last price 201.19 Today Daily Change 0.08 Today Daily Change % 0.04 Today daily open 201.11   Trends Daily SMA20 199.96 Daily SMA50 196.73 Daily SMA100 193.36 Daily SMA200 188.6   Levels Previous Daily High 201.13 Previous Daily Low 200.42 Previous Weekly High 201.62 Previous Weekly Low 198.92 Previous Monthly High 200.75 Previous Monthly Low 191.37 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 200.86 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 200.69 Daily Pivot Point S1 200.64 Daily Pivot Point S2 200.18 Daily Pivot Point S3 199.93 Daily Pivot Point R1 201.35 Daily Pivot Point R2 201.6 Daily Pivot Point R3 202.06    

On Thursday, the NZD/USD extended its losses below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), its fourth consecutive rejection at this strong support level this week.

Despite NZD/USD's attempts to recover losses, another rejection at the 20-day SMA sees a retreat to 0.6122.The short-term outlook is increasingly bearish, with rising selling traction visible.For a break in the bearish outlook, the pair must recover the 20-day SMA at 0.6150.On Thursday, the NZD/USD extended its losses below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), its fourth consecutive rejection at this strong support level this week. The pair retreated to 0.6122. Despite attempts to recover losses, indicators are signalling rising bearish traction potentially paving the way for further downside unless the pair can regain control over the 20-day SMA around the 0.6150 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the NZDUSD daily chart positions at 49, slightly below the neutral territory. Compared to Tuesday's reading of 51, the RSI indicators are pointing south, suggesting a potential decrease in the market momentum. Despite near-term downward dynamics, it remains distanced from the oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) profile continues to print rising red bars indicating an elevated presence of sellers in the market. NZD/USD daily chart For the NZD/USD, immediate support remains near the 0.6100 level. Further support is available at the convergence of the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.60695 and 0.60627 respectively. These levels could provide a solid foundation in the event of an extension of the downside move. A break below these SMA convergence points might be indicative of a strong sell-off scenario. In stark contrast, resistance for the pair is entrenched around the 20-day SMA at 0.6150 level. Then higher up at 0.6170 and finally at the 0.6200 level. A decisive breakout above these levels could potentially signify the end of the current bearish market sentiment and a shift toward bullish dynamics. NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6124 Today Daily Change -0.0009 Today Daily Change % -0.15 Today daily open 0.6133   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6147 Daily SMA50 0.6053 Daily SMA100 0.607 Daily SMA200 0.6064   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6146 Previous Daily Low 0.6127 Previous Weekly High 0.6222 Previous Weekly Low 0.6099 Previous Monthly High 0.6171 Previous Monthly Low 0.5875 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6134 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6139 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6125 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6116 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6106 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6144 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6154 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6163    

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil inched into fresh highs on Thursday, clipping $81.40 and continuing its march towards the $82.00 handle.

WTI edged into fresh highs near $81.40 as energy markets hope for drawdown.EIA barrel counts reported a larger-than-expected decline in US Crude Oil stocks.Barrel traders edge bids higher on extended hopes of a summertime supply crunch.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil inched into fresh highs on Thursday, clipping $81.40 and continuing its march towards the $82.00 handle. Crude Oil markets lurch forward on renewed hopes of a summertime upswing in fuel demand helping to chew away at a looming oversupply issue in global oil supplies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected decline in US Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ended June 14. EIA barrels counts printed a -2.547 million barrel decline, sharply down from the previous week’s 3.73 million barrel buildup and even lower than the forecast -2.0 million decline. Despite the drag on EIA barrel stocks, traders with a calculator handy will note that the week’s backslide brings EIA Crude Oil counts for the year to a 26 million barrel surplus. Crude Oil markets are bidding up barrel prices as energy markets pin their hopes on a summertime uptick in fuel demand for cooling and travel purposes. This comes after an uptick in Chinese fossil fuel demand failed to materialize and a non-starter kickoff to the US Memorial Day “driving season.” The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to phase out voluntary production cuts for its extended network of non-member ally states, OPEC+, later this year. OPEC+ nations that shouldered a significant burden in trying to bolster global Crude Oil prices by intentionally restricting the amount of unrefined Crude Oil they pull out of the ground has begun to weigh on government budgets that routinely rely on barrel-selling activity to balance accounts. WTI technical outlook WTI extended bullish momentum on Thursday, edging towards $81.50 as intraday bids accelerate above rising trendlines from the last major swing low into $72.50. US Crude Oil has climbed further above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.85. WTI has closed bullish for all but four of the last 12 consecutive trading days, climbing 12.34% from the last major low. WTI hourly chart WTI daily chart WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 81.12 Today Daily Change 0.57 Today Daily Change % 0.71 Today daily open 80.55   Trends Daily SMA20 77.45 Daily SMA50 79.4 Daily SMA100 79.35 Daily SMA200 79.08   Levels Previous Daily High 81.09 Previous Daily Low 80.24 Previous Weekly High 78.98 Previous Weekly Low 75.03 Previous Monthly High 81.25 Previous Monthly Low 76.04 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 80.57 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 80.76 Daily Pivot Point S1 80.16 Daily Pivot Point S2 79.78 Daily Pivot Point S3 79.32 Daily Pivot Point R1 81.01 Daily Pivot Point R2 81.47 Daily Pivot Point R3 81.86    

Silver price rallied sharply for the second straight day and climbed past $30.00 on Thursday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar.

Silver climbs over 3%, despite higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar.Technical outlook shows bullish bias with momentum favoring buyers; RSI aims higher above the 50-neutral line.Key resistance levels: $31.54 (June 7 high) and $32.00, with YTD high at $32.51 in sight.Support levels at $29.09 (50-DMA) and $28.66 (MTD low).Silver price rallied sharply for the second straight day and climbed past $30.00 on Thursday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. The grey metal trades at $30.68 up by more than 3%. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Silver remains bullish biased and after consolidating during the last six days within the $28.60-$29.80, it has finally cleared the top of the range and surged past the $30.00 figure. Momentum shifted in favor of the buyers after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at around the 50-neutral line. As XAG/USD resumed its uptrend, the next resistance level would be June 7 high at $31.54. Once cleared, the next stop would be $32.00 before challenging the year-to-date (YTD) high of $32.51. On the other hand, if XAG/USD sellers drag spot prices below the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $29.09, it will expose $29.00. Once cleared, that could expose the MTD low of $28.66, ahead of plunging toward the 100-DMA at $26.60. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 30.73 Today Daily Change 1.02 Today Daily Change % 3.43 Today daily open 29.71   Trends Daily SMA20 30.23 Daily SMA50 29.07 Daily SMA100 26.6 Daily SMA200 24.88   Levels Previous Daily High 29.74 Previous Daily Low 29.34 Previous Weekly High 30.26 Previous Weekly Low 28.66 Previous Monthly High 32.51 Previous Monthly Low 26.02 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 29.59 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 29.5 Daily Pivot Point S1 29.45 Daily Pivot Point S2 29.2 Daily Pivot Point S3 29.05 Daily Pivot Point R1 29.85 Daily Pivot Point R2 30 Daily Pivot Point R3 30.25    

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) fell from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in May

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) up to 2.3% in May from previous 1.8%

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