Forex News Timeline

17:14 GBP/USD erupts as soft US jobs data crush the Dollar
The GBP/USD surges 0.42% on Tuesday as the latest US jobs report revealed the labor mark weakness, while Retail Sales were unexpectedly unchanged from September figures, an indication of consumers’ resilience. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3432 after reaching a daily low of 1.3355.

17:03 EUR/USD climbs to three-month high after delayed US jobs and Retail Sales data
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after brief two-way volatility as traders digested the delayed US labour market and consumer spending data.

EUR/USD climbs to its highest level since late September as the US Dollar stays under pressure.Delayed US jobs data shows softer hiring momentum, with unemployment rising to a four-year high.Mixed Retail Sales and weaker PMI data reinforce expectations of a cautious Fed policy path.The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after brief two-way volatility as traders digested the delayed US labour market and consumer spending data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1800, its highest level since September 24, up nearly 0.25% on the day, as the Greenback remains under sustained pressure.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 64,000 in November, modestly beating market expectations for a 50,000 increase. In contrast, October payrolls contracted by 105,000, a sharp reversal from September’s 108,000 gain, which was revised down from an initial estimate of 119,000.The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations of 4.4% and marking the highest level since September 2021. At the same time, the labour force participation rate edged up to 62.5% from 62.4%.The report also showed that US payrolls were revised down by a combined 33,000 over August and September, echoing remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned at last week’s post-meeting press conference that job gains since April may have been overstated by around 60,000.Wage growth showed further signs of easing in November. Average Hourly Earnings rose just 0.1% MoM, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% increase and slowing sharply from the previous 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, wage growth eased to 3.5% from 3.7%.October Retail Sales data sent a mixed signal. Headline sales were unchanged on the month, missing market expectations for a 0.1% increase. However, the underlying details were more supportive, with Retail Sales excluding Autos rising 0.4%, while the Control Group jumped 0.8%, comfortably beating forecasts.Taken together, the mixed US data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to further policy easing after delivering 75 basis points of rate cuts this year to support the labour market. While policymakers are widely expected to hold rates at the January meeting, investors continue to price in two rate cuts in 2026.Against this backdrop, the US Dollar remains under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, hovering near 97.96, its lowest level since October 3.Adding to the Dollar’s downside, the preliminary S&P Global PMI surveys for December pointed to a loss of momentum in business activity. The Composite PMI slipped to 53.0 from 54.2, while Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 from 52.2 and the Services PMI fell to 52.9 from 54.1.

17:00 United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0.2%) in September
United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0.2%) in September

16:51 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declines to 51.8, Services PMI falls to 52.9 in December
The business activity in the United States' (US) private sector continued to expand in December, albeit at a softer pace than it did in November, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declining to 53 from 54.2.

US S&P Composite PMI declined in December but held above 50.US Dollar Index stays under bearish pressure, fluctuates slightly below 98.00.The business activity in the United States' (US) private sector continued to expand in December, albeit at a softer pace than it did in November, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declining to 53 from 54.2.In this period, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.8 from 52.2, while the Services PMI fell to 52.9 from 54.1.Assessing the survey's findings, "the flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum. Although the survey data point to annualized GDP expansion of about 2.5% over the fourth quarter, growth has now slowed for two months," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence."“Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment," Williamson added.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays on the back foot after the PMI data and was last seen losing 0.3% on the day at 97.96.

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52) in December
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52) in December

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.9, below expectations (54.1) in December
United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.9, below expectations (54.1) in December

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 53 in December from previous 54.2
United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 53 in December from previous 54.2

16:39 New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous -4.3% to -4.4%
New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous -4.3% to -4.4%

16:09 US Retail Sales virtually unchanged at $732.6 billion in October
Retail Sales in the United States were virtually unchanged at $732.6 billion in October, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 0.1% increase (revised from 0.3%) recorded in September and came in below the market expectation of +0.1%.

Retail Sales in the US held steady in October.The US Dollar Index stays in negative territory near 98.00.Retail Sales in the United States were virtually unchanged at $732.6 billion in October, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 0.1% increase (revised from 0.3%) recorded in September and came in below the market expectation of +0.1%."Total sales for the August 2025 through October 2025 period were up 4.2% from the same period a year ago," the press release read. "Retail trade sales were up 0.1% from September 2025, and up 3.4% from last year."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays under modest bearish pressure in the American session and was last seen losing 0.16% on the day at 98.10.

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 5.7% to 6.2% in December 12
United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 5.7% to 6.2% in December 12

15:37 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in October
United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in October

15:36 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) up to 0.4% in October from previous 0.2%
United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) up to 0.4% in October from previous 0.2%

15:35 United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (October)
United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (October)

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) declined to 3.5% in October from previous 3.8%
United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) declined to 3.5% in October from previous 3.8%

15:31 United States Nonfarm Payrolls: -105K (October) vs previous 119K
United States Nonfarm Payrolls: -105K (October) vs previous 119K

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) down to 0.1% in October from previous 0.2%
United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) down to 0.1% in October from previous 0.2%

15:31 United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 (October) vs 34.2
United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 (October) vs 34.2

15:31 United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in October
United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in October

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.5% (October) vs previous 4.3%
United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.5% (October) vs previous 4.3%

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls down to 64K in October from previous 119K
United States Nonfarm Payrolls down to 64K in October from previous 119K

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to -5% in November from previous 8%
United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to -5% in November from previous 8%

15:30 United States Average Weekly Hours above forecasts (34.2) in November: Actual (34.3)
United States Average Weekly Hours above forecasts (34.2) in November: Actual (34.3)

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.7% (November) vs 8%
United States U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.7% (November) vs 8%

15:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in October
United States Retail Sales Control Group came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in October

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 64K above expectations (50K) in November
United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 64K above expectations (50K) in November

15:30 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in November
United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in November

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October

15:30 United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5% (November) vs 62.4%
United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5% (November) vs 62.4%

15:30 United States Unemployment Rate above expectations (4.4%) in November: Actual (4.6%)
United States Unemployment Rate above expectations (4.4%) in November: Actual (4.6%)

15:22 EUR/GBP weakens after UK jobs data and softer Eurozone PMI
The Euro (EUR) weakens against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, as Sterling outperforms most major peers following the release of UK labour market data. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8763, down nearly 0.25% on the day, snapping a three-day winning streak.

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At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades around 0.8763, down nearly 0.25% on the day, snapping a three-day winning streak.Data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that labour-market conditions continued to ease in October, even as wage growth remained firm. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses rose 4.6% in the three months to October, slightly below the previous 4.7% but above expectations of 4.5%, while Average Earnings Including Bonuses increased 4.7%, easing from 4.9% and beating forecasts of 4.4%.At the same time, employment fell by 17,000, following a 22,000 decline previously, while the ILO Unemployment Rate edged up to 5.1% from 5.0%, in line with expectations. The Claimant Count rose by 20,100 in November, below forecasts of 22,300, and the Claimant Count Rate ticked higher to 4.4% from 4.3%, reinforcing signs of gradual labour-market cooling.The data did little to derail expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, with markets widely anticipating a 25 basis point cut.Further underpinning the Pound, UK business activity showed signs of improvement in December, according to the latest S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey. The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.1 from 51.2, a two-month high, with both services activity and manufacturing output accelerating. The Services PMI increased to 52.1, while the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2, its highest level in 15 months.On the Euro side, softer Eurozone activity data added further pressure to the single currency. The latest HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.9 in December from 52.8 in November, marking a three-month low.The slowdown was driven by services, with the Services PMI Business Activity Index slipping to 52.6 from 53.6, while manufacturing remained in contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 from 49.6, an eight-month low, and manufacturing output dropped to 49.7, the weakest in ten months.Looking ahead, markets are also focused on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision on Thursday, where policymakers are widely expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged. Attention will turn to inflation data on Wednesday, with UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures alongside the Eurozone Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) due for release, offering fresh signals on the inflation ahead of the central bank meetings. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K

14:52 Russia’s largest Palladium producer sees platinum deficit this year – Commerzbank
Russia’s top Palladium producer expects a notable supply deficit for Platinum in 2025, while Palladium remains mostly balanced, highlighting diverging market views compared with the World Platinum Investment Council’s forecasts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Russia’s top Palladium producer expects a notable supply deficit for Platinum in 2025, while Palladium remains mostly balanced, highlighting diverging market views compared with the World Platinum Investment Council’s forecasts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Palladium market balanced this year"Russia's largest Palladium producer yesterday published updated forecasts for the Platinum and Palladium market balances. According to these forecasts, the Platinum market is expected to show a supply deficit of 300,000 ounces this year, excluding investment demand. Including investment demand, the deficit is expected to amount to 400,000 ounces." "For Palladium, the company expects a balanced market without investment demand and a deficit of 200,000 ounces including this component. For the coming year, the company only published forecasts without investment demand. The market balance for Platinum is expected to be roughly the same as this year, and the Palladium market is expected to show a deficit of 100,000 ounces." "By way of comparison, the World Platinum Investment Council predicted in its November report that the Platinum market is likely to be almost balanced next year, including investment demand. Without investor demand, which the WPIC classifies as including bar and coin purchases, ETFs and changes in exchange-registered inventories, the Platinum market would actually be oversupplied by around 380,000 ounces. This does not provide any grounds for a further price increase."

14:49 Platinum hits $1,800, highest since 2011 – Commerzbank
Platinum and Palladium prices rose sharply this week, driven by record-high Silver and Gold levels and prospects of increased demand from the European automotive sector following indications of a softer 2035 combustion engine ban, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Platinum and Palladium prices rose sharply this week, driven by record-high Silver and Gold levels and prospects of increased demand from the European automotive sector following indications of a softer 2035 combustion engine ban, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Palladium climbs to $1,600 amid precious metals rally"The price of Platinum rose yesterday to $1,800 per troy ounce for the first time since September 2011. The price of Palladium rose to $1,600 today, but is still trading below the 2½-year high of $1,636 per troy ounce reached in October." "The recent price increases for Platinum and Palladium can largely be explained by the likewise sharp rise in the prices of Gold and, in particular, Silver, which reached a new record high of $64.7 per troy ounce on Friday." "In addition, the looming softening of the EU's planned 2035 ban on the sale of cars with combustion engines may have given prices a boost, as this could mean that more Platinum and Palladium will be needed in the European automotive industry over the next 10 years than previously expected".

14:45 JPY strengthens ahead of BOJ rate decision – BBH
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against most major currencies as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan’s first rate hike since January, with PMI data showing modest growth and investors looking for clues on the central bank’s policy normalization path, BBH FX analysts report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against most major currencies as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan’s first rate hike since January, with PMI data showing modest growth and investors looking for clues on the central bank’s policy normalization path, BBH FX analysts report. Market eyes BOJ neutral rate guidance"JPY is up against most major currencies. Japan PMI slips in December, but the growth outlook remains encouraging. The composite PMI dipped to 51.5 from a three-month high of 52.0 in November with services growth easing while the manufacturing sector contraction eased.""The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to raise the policy rate 25bps to 0.75% (Friday). It will be the first rate hike since January. Comments about the neutral rate could offer clues about the extent of the normalization cycle. The BOJ currently estimates the neutral rate to be within a wide range between 1% and 2.5%.""Earlier this month, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the bank is trying to see if it can narrow down the range and it will make it public if it succeeds in doing so. A tighter neutral rate range would clarify the BOJ’s policy path and bode well for JPY. The swaps curve implies a policy rate of 1.50% over the next two years. We see room for USD/JPY to adjust lower towards the level implied by US-Japan two-year bond yield spreads around 140.00."

14:39 Gold retreats below $4,300 ahead of US jobs data – Commerzbank
Gold dipped below $4,300 per ounce as investors awaited today’s US labor market data, with weaker-than-expected figures likely to support prices, while stronger results could trigger volatility by shifting Fed policy expectations, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Gold dipped below $4,300 per ounce as investors awaited today’s US labor market data, with weaker-than-expected figures likely to support prices, while stronger results could trigger volatility by shifting Fed policy expectations, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Gold volatility looms on potential surprises"The price of Gold has fallen below the $4,300 per troy ounce mark again today. In the run-up to the eagerly awaited US labor market data, many market participants are likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted during last week's central bank meeting that the majority of the FOMC sees greater risks for the labor market than for inflation." "Accordingly, expectations of interest rate cuts had risen again, which had boosted the Gold price. A rather weak result for the November figures for the labor market, which are due to be released today, is likely to confirm these expectations and could help the price rise above the $4,300 mark again." "However, a stronger-than-expected result is likely to cause greater volatility, as this could shift the FOMC's focus back towards inflation and therefore call further interest rate cuts into question."

14:32 GBP shows strength amid mixed UK data – BBH
The Pound Sterling (GBP) outperformed as UK labor market conditions eased and the December PMI signaled firmer private sector growth, while markets fully priced in an upcoming Bank of England rate cut, BBH FX analysts report.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) outperformed as UK labor market conditions eased and the December PMI signaled firmer private sector growth, while markets fully priced in an upcoming Bank of England rate cut, BBH FX analysts report. UK unemployment hits highest since Q1 2021"GBP is outperforming. UK labor market condition continued to ease in October while the UK December PMI points to firmer private sector growth traction. The Bank of England (BOE) remains on track to deliver a rate cut on Thursday (93% priced-in) but the easing path ahead should remain gradual. We expect GBP to continue underperforming on the crosses.""The unemployment rate matched consensus at 5.1% (highest since Q1 2021) vs. 5.0% in September and job vacancies have fallen further. This has kept the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio well below its estimated equilibrium level (0.50), indicative of weaker labor demand.""Wage growth slowed but remains a key source of underlying inflation pressure given that labor productivity is estimated at -0.2% in 2025. The policy-relevant private sector regular pay fell to the lowest since late 2020 at 3.9% y/y (consensus: 3.8%) vs 4.2% in September. Finally, the composite PMI increased to a 2-month high at 52.1 (consensus: 51.5) vs. 51.2 in November, reflecting an improvement in services and manufacturing activity."

14:27 China Crude imports surge in November – Commerzbank
China imported far more Crude than needed in November, adding to strategic reserves and helping prevent a sharper drop in global Oil prices, though the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

China imported far more Crude than needed in November, adding to strategic reserves and helping prevent a sharper drop in global Oil prices, though the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. China absorbs global Oil oversupply"China once again imported significantly more Crude Oil in November than it needed for its own requirements. Comparing the data on Crude Oil processing with that on Crude Oil imports and domestic Crude Oil production, the resulting surplus amounts to 1.9 million barrels per day. This Crude Oil is likely to have been used to build up strategic reserves yet again." "Reserve purchases were thus significantly higher than in previous months and the highest in seven months. This can be explained by the sharp rise in imports in November to their highest level in more than two years. Taking the first eleven months as a whole, reserve purchases amount to around 1 million barrels per day." "China is thus likely to have absorbed a considerable portion of this year's oversupply and prevented a sharper decline in Oil prices. The big question, therefore, is whether China will continue to take on this role in the coming months."

14:21 EUR/USD near highest level since early October – BBH
EUR/USD is trading near its highest level since October 1 as Eurozone PMI data showed a modest slowdown, while German ZEW expectations improved sharply.

EUR/USD is trading near its highest level since October 1 as Eurozone PMI data showed a modest slowdown, while German ZEW expectations improved sharply. The relative policy stance of the ECB, seen as more resilient compared with the Fed’s easing trajectory, continues to underpin the euro’s strength, BBH FX analysts report. ECB-Fed policy divergence supports Euro strength"EUR/USD is trading near its highest level since October 1. Eurozone PMI slips in December, but the growth outlook remains encouraging. The composite PMI fell more than expected to a three-month low at 51.9 (consensus: 52.6) vs. 52.8 in November due to a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector (attributable to German industry) and weaker momentum in the service sector (attributable to stagnant services activity in France).""In parallel, the German December ZEW investor economic sentiment expectations index improved to a five-month high at 45.8 (consensus: 38.4) vs. 38.5 in November, consistent with resilient economic activity." "The ECB is in a good place to keep rates on hold for some time while the Fed has more easing in the pipeline. As such, relative ECB/Fed policy stance underpins the uptrend in EUR/USD."

14:11 Chinese Crude Oil Processing Edges Up 4% Y/Y in November – Commerzbank
China’s refineries processed 60.83 million tons of Crude Oil in November, up 4% from a year ago but slightly below October’s daily rate. Stronger output at independent refineries offset slower production at state-owned facilities due to maintenance.

China’s refineries processed 60.83 million tons of Crude Oil in November, up 4% from a year ago but slightly below October’s daily rate. Stronger output at independent refineries offset slower production at state-owned facilities due to maintenance. December will be crucial for matching last year’s record processing levels, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Independent refineries offset state-owned maintenance slowdown"Refineries in China processed 60.83 million tons of Crude Oil in November, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) at the beginning of the week. This corresponds to 14.82 million barrels per day. Crude Oil processing was thus 4% higher than in the previous year, but slightly below the level of the previous month on a daily basis." "A more significant decline was prevented by higher processing at independent refineries, which had previously been granted new import quotas. This almost compensated for lower processing at state-owned refineries due to maintenance work. Crude Oil processing in China is likely to rise this year. After 11 months, the increase compared to the same period last year is 4%." "To reach previous year's figure, a good 33 million tons would have to be processed in December. That is slightly more than half of the usual monthly volume. To reach the record level of 2023, processing in December would have to amount to just under 60 million tons, which is in line with the December levels recorded in recent years."

14:07 USD trades heavy ahead of November NFP release – BBH
US Dollar (USD) is trading heavy near the middle of its June-December range. USD is set for a choppy trading day as key US data hit the wire. US November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) comes today, BBH FX analysts report.

US Dollar (USD) is trading heavy near the middle of its June-December range. USD is set for a choppy trading day as key US data hit the wire. US November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) comes today, BBH FX analysts report. US jobs data could move US Dollar"Consensus is looking for +50k job gains in November, which also incorporates the survey for October, following an increase of +119k jobs in September. It’s not just the number of jobs gain that matters, but also which sectors are driving them. In September, the non-cyclical health care and social assistance sector contributed to nearly half the rise in NFP, underscoring the downside risk to labor demand." "Indeed, the decline in the hiring rate suggests labor demand is weak and points to downside risk to today’s NFP release. For reference, ADP private employment rose +15k while Revelio labs non-farm employment (private and public) fell -25k over October and November. Also, Powell warned that NFP gains since April may be overstated by about 60k. So rather than averaging +40k job gains a month, the economy has actually lost -20k jobs per month since April.""Overall, weaker US labor demand will support Fed funds futures pricing 50bps of easing next year and undermine USD. In contrast, USD can recover some of its recent losses if there are signs that the slump in labor demand is stabilizing."

14:00 Gold under pressure as traders brace for delayed US NFP release
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data docket that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path into 2026.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold trades on the back foot as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data slate.Focus turns to the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls reports for October and November, due at 13:30 GMTTechnically, Gold shows signs of near-term consolidation after repeated rejection near the $4,350 area, even as the broader uptrend remains intact.Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data docket that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path into 2026. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering around $4,278, giving back part of its recent gains after struggling to sustain traction near record highs.Attention is firmly on the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports for October and November, which were postponed due to the recent government shutdown and are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. The Fed’s monetary policy path has continued to dominate market sentiment since last week’s 25 basis point (bps) rate cut. The central bank has delivered 75 bps of easing this year amid signs of labour market cooling, even as inflation remains above the 2% target. The upcoming data is expected to play a key role in shaping near-term rate expectations, with weaker-than-expected readings likely to reinforce bets that policymakers could be forced to act sooner than currently anticipated.In addition to the NFP releases, traders will also monitor the ADP Employment Change four-week average, Retail Sales, and preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.Market movers: Peace-talk optimism, US jobs data and Fed signals in focusReports of progress in US-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks have modestly eased geopolitical tensions, limiting safe-haven flows into Gold. Ukrainian officials described “real progress” from peace talks in Berlin, saying negotiations with US envoys have been constructive and productive, including discussions around strong security guarantees for Kyiv. US President Donald Trump echoed the optimism, saying a peace deal is “closer now than we have been, ever,” while senior US officials indicated Washington is prepared to offer NATO-style security guarantees as part of a negotiated framework.Economists expect the November NFP report to show job gains of around 50,000, with the Unemployment Rate seen holding at 4.4%. The release will also include a partial update for October, after some labour-market data was not collected due to the government shutdown. For context, payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs in September. It is also worth noting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned at last week’s meeting that reported NFP gains since April may be overstated by roughly 60,000.At last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is “well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves.” Even so, policymakers remain divided over the need for additional easing in 2026, leaving investors uncertain about the policy outlook. Markets are largely pricing in a hold in January, with nearly a 40% probability of a rate cut in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that monetary policy is well-positioned as the US heads into 2026, noting that inflation is expected to moderate further while labour-market risks have increased. In contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his dovish stance, arguing that underlying inflation pressures are lower than headline measures suggest and cautioning against keeping policy overly restrictive. Miran, who favoured a larger 50 basis point rate cut at the last meeting, said a faster pace of easing would move policy closer to the neutral rate, warning that holding policy too tight risks unnecessary job losses. He added that future dissents will depend on policy decisions and said he would like rates to decline further.Markets are also closely monitoring developments around the potential Federal Reserve leadership change, with Reuters reporting that Kevin Hassett’s candidacy has faced pushback from individuals close to President Donald Trump, shifting attention toward former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who is increasingly seen as the leading contender to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.Technical analysis: XAU/USD eyes $4,250 support after failing near $4,350From a technical perspective, Gold’s near-term bias has turned slightly bearish to neutral after sellers once again stepped in near the $4,350 region, pushing prices lower from recent highs. On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is trading below the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $4,291, which is acting as immediate resistance and signalling that sellers retain short-term control.A sustained move back above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure, with the next upside hurdle seen around $4,350, ahead of a potential retest of the all-time high near $4,381.On the downside, $4,250 marks immediate support, while the 100-period SMA at $4,210.31 provides a key dynamic support zone. As long as prices hold above the rising 100-period SMA, the broader uptrend remains intact. However, a decisive break below this level would tilt the near-term structure lower.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back toward the neutral 50 area, reflecting fading bullish momentum and reinforcing the view that Gold may remain in short-term consolidation before attempting another leg higher. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:04 Oil: Brent Crude falls below $60 for first time in over seven months – Commerzbank
Brent Crude fell below $60 per barrel this morning, marking the lowest level in more than seven months, while WTI closed at its weakest since February 2021.

Brent Crude fell below $60 per barrel this morning, marking the lowest level in more than seven months, while WTI closed at its weakest since February 2021. Optimism over a potential Ukraine ceasefire and easing US sanctions on Russian Oil has weighed on prices, though analysts caution that supply expansion from Russia is limited, suggesting the recent decline may be overstated, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Oil selling pressure driven by expectations of easing US sanctions on Russia"The price of Brent Crude Oil fell below $60 per barrel this morning for the first time in more than seven months. The WTI price even closed at its lowest level since February 2021 yesterday.""Selling pressure is being generated by new hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine in the near future and the accompanying easing or lifting of US sanctions against the Russian Oil sector. Russian Oil stored in tankers would then find buyers more easily and the mutual attacks on energy infrastructure would cease." "However, we have already emphasized several times that a significant expansion of Oil supplies from Russia is unlikely because Russia is bound by OPEC+ production targets and is already producing close to its own capacity limits. Therefore, the current price weakness appears to be excessive.

12:57 DXY: US NFP report might shift Fed rate expectations – MUFG
Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is set to influence market expectations for the Fed’s January meeting.

Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is set to influence market expectations for the Fed’s January meeting. With New York Fed President Williams expecting slower hiring and heightened downside risks to employment, markets anticipate further rate cuts, likely extending the US Dollar’s (USD) weakening trend unless job growth surprises to the upside, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.Fed signals caution ahead of January"Today’s nonfarm payrolls report could materially alter current market expectations for the Fed to leave rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting in January. The Fed will also be able to see the nonfarm payrolls report for December at the start of next year before deciding whether to leave rates on hold in January. The Fed may attach more weight to the December NFP report given it should be less impacted by the recent US government shutdown than today’s report." "New York Fed President Williams stated yesterday that it is too early to say about the January policy decision, and he expects today’s jobs report to show relatively slow hiring consistent with a gradual cooling of the labour market. He also believes that downside employment risks have risen in recent months while judging that labour demand has slowed more than supply. On the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate, he expressed optimism over the inflation outlook.""Overall, his comments support our view that the Fed will deliver multiple further rate cuts next year helping to weaken the US dollar. The US dollar weakening trend is likely to extend into year-end unless today’s nonfarm payrolls report surprisingly reveals much stronger labour market conditions."

12:48 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slumps to near $4,270, US NFP takes centre stage
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.6% lower to near $4,270 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The yellow metal faces intense selling pressure as profit-booking kicks in after revisiting the all-time high above $4,350.

12:45 GBP softens as BoE rate cut looms – MUFG
The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened at the start of the week, pushing EUR/GBP closer to 0.8800.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened at the start of the week, pushing EUR/GBP closer to 0.8800. With slowing UK growth, softening inflation, and easing labor market conditions, markets anticipate a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut this week, though Wednesday’s CPI release remains the final potential obstacle, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.UK inflation and growth trends support further BoE easing"The pound has weakened alongside the US dollar at the start of this week resulting EUR/GBP rising back up closer to the 0.8800-level after hitting a low of 0.8721 on 9th December. We expect the pound to weaken further as the BoE moves to lower rates this week. The relief rally for the pound after last month’s Budget appears to have run its course now." "The recent softening of UK inflation, weaker growth and loosening of labour market conditions has provided justification for another BoE rate cut this week, and should be sufficient to encourage at least key swing voter Governor Bailey to shift in favour of a vote for another cut this week.""The last potential banana skin for BoE rate cut expectations will be the release tomorrow of the UK CPI report for November. A significant upside inflation surprise would be required to derail a rate cut this week given slowing economic growth and loosening labour market conditions in the UK."

12:40 USD/JPY dips ahead of expected BOJ hike – OCBC
USD/JPY softened as UST yields slipped, with the market largely pricing in a 25bp Bank of Japan (BOJ) hike this Friday and another in 2026.

USD/JPY softened as UST yields slipped, with the market largely pricing in a 25bp Bank of Japan (BOJ) hike this Friday and another in 2026. Tankan data showed sentiment at large manufacturers improving, but any sustained Japanese Yen (JPY) recovery will hinge on BOJ guidance, fiscal prudence, and a softer USD. USD/JPY was last at 154.86 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Markets eye 2026 BOJ policy path "USD/JPY traded lower, owing to slippage in UST yields while market optimism over BOJ hike this Friday remains intact. Market still implied about 95% probability of a 25bp hike at the upcoming BOJ MPC (19 Dec) while also pricing in another 1 hike for 2026. Latest Tankan survey showed that index of sentiment at large manufacturers rose to 15 for 4Q, from 14 in 3Q survey.""We believe markets are going into the BOJ meeting looking for clues about 2026 policy normalization profile and not just about December’s meeting outcome. Any meaningful recovery in JPY would require not just the BOJ to follow through with stronger guidance but also for policymakers to demonstrate fiscal prudence and for the USD to stay soft.""Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell. Risks somewhat skewed to the downside. Next support at 154.20/40 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low, 50 DMA). Resistance at 156 (21 DMA), 157 and 158.87 (previous high in 2025)."

12:26 DXY: Fed officials signal preparedness for faster easing – OCBC
Fed officials highlighted the need for flexibility in monetary policy, with Miran cautioning that labor market weakness can emerge rapidly and Williams noting that policy is well positioned after last week’s rate cut.

Fed officials highlighted the need for flexibility in monetary policy, with Miran cautioning that labor market weakness can emerge rapidly and Williams noting that policy is well positioned after last week’s rate cut. US Dollar (USD) momentum remains bearish, with support around 98.10–97.60 and resistance near 98.40–99.80. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped modestly; last seen around 98.20 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.DXY faces bearish momentum amid oversold conditions"On Fedspeaks overnight, Miran said that Experience suggests that labor market deterioration can occur quickly and nonlinearly and be difficult to reverse. In part because monetary policy lags several quarters and a quicker pace of easing policy would appropriately move us closer to a neutral stance." "Williams said that monetary policy is well positioned for next year following last week’s interest rate reduction, amid increased risks to employment and somewhat lessened inflation risk." "Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near oversold conditions. Some consolidation is not ruled out in the interim. Support here at 98.10, 97.60 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 98.40/60 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 99.10/30 levels (21, 50, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low) and 99.80 levels (61.8% fibo)."

12:09 CNY gains 0.9% in November on trade-weighted basis – Commerzbank
The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continued its steady appreciation, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD), with USD/CNY falling to 7.0471. Banking sector foreign currency reserves rose further, reflecting efforts to moderate the pace of CNY gains while maintaining a high trade surplus.

The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continued its steady appreciation, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD), with USD/CNY falling to 7.0471. Banking sector foreign currency reserves rose further, reflecting efforts to moderate the pace of CNY gains while maintaining a high trade surplus. Analysts expect gradual, controlled appreciation in the months ahead, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Chinese Bank FX reserves rise amid currency strength"According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the CNY appreciated by 0.9% on a trade-weighted basis in November. This development was supported by a sustained appreciation of the CNY against the US dollar, which has continued so far this month. Yesterday, USD/CNY fell to 7.0471, its lowest level this year.""However, data published yesterday on the balance sheets of the Chinese banking sector indicate that the appreciation could have been even stronger. While foreign currency reserves at the central bank did not increase, they rose again in the banking sector by around RMB 80 billion compared with the previous month, putting them around 24% higher last month than in November last year.""We expect the CNY to continue to appreciate slightly against the US dollar in the coming months. However, this will not be enough to counteract the high foreign trade surplus. The government will therefore continue its efforts to prevent the CNY from appreciating too quickly. And the interventions are likely to cause foreign currency reserves in the banking sector to rise further."

12:08 Eurozone ZEW Survey rises significantly to 33.7 in December vs. 26.3 estimates
Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment jumps sharply to 33.7 in December. The sentiment indicator was expected to increase slightly to 26.3 from 25.0 in November.

12:02 Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.042B to €-1.31B in October
Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.042B to €-1.31B in October

12:02 USD/CNH approaches 7.00 despite weak Chinese data – ING
USD/CNH nears 7.00, despite disappointing Chinese activity data.

USD/CNH nears 7.00, despite disappointing Chinese activity data. Analysts note a rare setup with the PBoC fixing USD/CNY above model estimates, signaling a gradual approach to renminbi appreciation, with potential pressure for a stronger currency emerging in 2026, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.PBoC fixing USD/CNY above model estimates"There is a lot of focus currently on the renminbi as USD/CNH approaches 7.00 – this despite some very disappointing Chinese activity data this week. Interest in the renminbi has been rekindled after Chinese November trade data showed that China had already amassed a $1tr trade surplus in the first 11 months of the year." "The presumption is that Chinese exporters are waiting for better levels to sell their FX earnings. Yet a debate is emerging about whether local authorities should allow a stronger renminbi to rebalance the local economy away from exports and towards stronger domestic demand. And in fact, we are now seeing an extremely rare setup of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) fixing USD/CNY higher than model-based estimates for the fixing.""In the last three years, in particular, the PBoC has been fixing USD/CNY lower than model-based estimates. Our Greater China economist, Lynn Song, believes the PBoC will not be rushed into accepting a much stronger renminbi, but pressure could build in 2026 – especially if we are correct with our house call for two more Fed cuts and a slightly weaker dollar."

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (26.3) in December: Actual (33.7)
Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (26.3) in December: Actual (33.7)

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €18.7B to €14B in October
Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €18.7B to €14B in October

12:00 Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.22B) in October: Actual (€4.156B)
Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.22B) in October: Actual (€4.156B)

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. dipped from previous €19.4B to €18.4B in October
Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. dipped from previous €19.4B to €18.4B in October

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -81, below expectations (-80) in December
Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -81, below expectations (-80) in December

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (38.5) in December: Actual (45.8)
Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (38.5) in December: Actual (45.8)

11:53 NZD: NZ food prices fall, but inflation remains elevated – Commerzbank
Food prices in New Zealand fell by 0.4% in November compared with the previous month. However, they are still 4.4% higher than a year ago and therefore continue to pose a problem for the central bank.

Food prices in New Zealand fell by 0.4% in November compared with the previous month. However, they are still 4.4% higher than a year ago and therefore continue to pose a problem for the central bank. If it were only food prices, one could perhaps overlook this and refer to core prices, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Core price trends keep pressure on RBNZ"However, the trend here has not been much better in recent months. Of course, it should be noted that in New Zealand, only a portion of the prices in the CPI basket are surveyed on a monthly basis. However, these price indications were also a reliable indicator for the complete CPI, which is surveyed once a quarter. And so it still looks as if inflation will remain at around 3%, at the upper end of the central bank's target range.""It remains to be seen how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deal with this. In interviews over the past few days, the new governor, Anna Breman, emphasised that the key interest rate could remain unchanged if the economy develops as currently expected. However, she also said that financial conditions had already tightened somewhat more than expected three weeks ago." "The RBNZ's next monetary policy meeting will not take place until 18 February next year. This gives the new governor plenty of time to calmly assess developments. We continue to assume that the economy in particular will develop somewhat weaker than currently expected by the central bank and therefore continue to anticipate a further reduction in the key interest rate."

11:46 USD: US NFP release in focus for today – ING
The highlight of today's session will be the 1430CET release of the delayed NFP jobs report. We will receive job hiring updates for both October and November, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The highlight of today's session will be the 1430CET release of the delayed NFP jobs report. We will receive job hiring updates for both October and November, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.November jobs expected to rise modestly"The consensus is for a modest +50k jobs increase for November and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. There will be no unemployment rate for October. Numbers in line with consensus will not have too much bearing on the Fed policy debate, where the market is close to pricing the next 25bp Fed cut by April and a further one by September." "We do note, however, that US money markets have fallen after the Fed announced its generous T-bill buying plans last week, and that is allowing three-month dollar hedging costs to drop to levels last seen in September 2022. There's also US October retail sales data today and the S&P PMIs. These look like an unlikely source of dollar volatility.""Strong interest in EM is normally a mild dollar negative. And with seasonal factors in play, we favour some mild dollar weakening into year-end as long as the NFP data does not surprise heavily on the upside. Below 98.00, DXY could edge to 97.80. To the upside, 98.80 looks intraday resistance."

11:36 JPY: Tankan reinforces case for BoJ rate hike – Commerzbank
The flash estimates for the Japanese purchasing managers' indices were somewhat weaker this morning than in the previous month. However, at 51.5, the composite PMI remained in expansionary territory.

The flash estimates for the Japanese purchasing managers' indices were somewhat weaker this morning than in the previous month. However, at 51.5, the composite PMI remained in expansionary territory. Yesterday's Tankan survey sent a clearer signal for a key interest rate hike at the end of this week, when the Bank of Japan meets for its last monetary policy meeting of the year, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Inflation signals turn less benign"This survey, which is conducted once a quarter by the Bank of Japan itself, is considered a reliable indicator of the Japanese economy. Here, the economic situation for all companies rose to 17 balance points, the highest level since 2018. To find an even higher value, one has to go back to the 1990s. The mood among medium-sized companies in particular has brightened significantly over the last three months, but large and small companies also currently assess the current situation as better than it has been for years.""At the same time, the Tankan survey also sent a small warning to the monetary authorities. This is because the disinflationary trends seen in recent quarters in the form of falling output prices have slowed significantly in the last three months. Although the level is not alarming and points to inflation of around 2% at the current level, food prices are still significantly higher, so a small buffer for industrial goods and services would certainly not be a bad thing.""The Tankan therefore points in the direction we have been expecting for some time: an interest rate hike at the end of this week. However, the market has already almost fully priced this in. For USD/JPY, it will once again depend on the tone of Governor Ueda. I expect him to be cautiously optimistic about further interest rate hikes. This should support the JPY."

11:33 UK flash Composite PMI rises to 52.1, beats 51.4 estimates
United Kingdom’s (UK) preliminary S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) comes in higher at 52.1 compared to expectations of 51.4 and the November's reading of 51.2. The Services and the Manufacturing PMI jumps to 52.1 and 51.2, respectively.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.15 per troy ounce, down 1.41% from the $64.06 it cost on Monday.

11:30 USD/CNH breaks lower as downtrend accelerates – Société Générale
USD/CNH has extended its decline after breaking below the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel, reinforcing the broader bearish trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CNH has extended its decline after breaking below the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel, reinforcing the broader bearish trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note. RMB strength persists despite stretched conditions"USD/CNH has extended its decline after breaking below the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel. While the downtrend appears stretched, there are still no clear signals of a meaningful rebound." "The pair looks poised to head gradually towards next objectives at the lower limit of the descending channel drawn since August at 7.01/7.00, followed by 2024 trough near 6.97. If a short-term bounce develops, the 50-DMA near 7.09/7.10 is likely to provide resistance."

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.2) in December: Actual (51.2)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.2) in December: Actual (51.2)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.1, above forecasts (51.4) in December
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.1, above forecasts (51.4) in December

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.5) in December: Actual (52.1)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.5) in December: Actual (52.1)

11:21 Oil: Ceasefire hopes push Brent to six-month low – Commerzbank
Renewed optimism over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire weighed on the Oil market yesterday. ICE Brent settled a little more than 0.9% lower, leaving it at $60.56/bbl -- the lowest close since May.

Renewed optimism over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire weighed on the Oil market yesterday. ICE Brent settled a little more than 0.9% lower, leaving it at $60.56/bbl -- the lowest close since May. President Trump has said that an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is closer than ever, after talks in Berlin. Clearly, territory remains a big sticking point, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Russian Oil faces buyer shortfall despite exports holding up"Oil markets will be watching developments closely, given the significant supply risk from sanctions on Russia. While Russian seaborne Oil exports have held up well since the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and LukOil, this Oil is still struggling to find buyers. The result is a growing volume of Russian Oil at sea. India, a key buyer of Russian Oil since the Russia/Ukraine war began, will reportedly see imports of Russian Crude fall to around 800k b/d this month, down from around 1.9m b/d in November.""The continued weakness in the refined products market may be adding to the broader pressure on Oil markets over the last week or so. Refinery margins surged in November amid concerns over the impact of sanctions on refined product flows and persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refinery assets. These concerns coincide with some refinery outages and the maintenance season." "This has been evident in the middle distillate market, with the ICE gasOil crack trading up towards $38/bbl in November on the back of heavy speculative buying. However, speculators have been heavily selling the gasOil market since late November. Ths has seen the crack fall back towards $23/bbl. As of last Tuesday, speculators held a net long of 58,578 lots in ICE gasOil, down from a peak of 102,195 lots as of 25 November."

11:11 USD: Unusual Tuesday release for US jobs report – Commerzbank
The US labour market report breaks with tradition by landing on a Tuesday, but expectations are modest, with job growth seen at just 50k and little change in unemployment.

The US labour market report breaks with tradition by landing on a Tuesday, but expectations are modest, with job growth seen at just 50k and little change in unemployment. Even a sizeable surprise may fail to stir markets, as data collected after the historic government shutdown is widely expected to be distorted, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. November payrolls seen muted after shutdown"Today is finally the day. And fittingly for this year, in which everything seems to be different and somewhat chaotic, the US labour market report, which is normally always released on a Friday, will be published today on a Tuesday." "However, we should not expect too much clarity. Our economists assume that the US economy created 50,000 new jobs in November, that hourly wages rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month and that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%. Such a labour market report is unlikely to cause much volatility in the market.""However, even a labour market report that deviates significantly from expectations is likely to have only a muted impact on the market. After all, any figures reported tomorrow should be treated with caution. Bear in mind that the data was collected shortly after the longest US government shutdown in history. It is therefore to be expected that certain distortions have occured."

11:04 USD/CNH stays heavy despite weak China data – OCBC
USD/CNH remains under pressure even as China’s activity data disappoints, with a fresh multi-month low in the daily fixing reinforcing a gradual RMB appreciation bias.

USD/CNH remains under pressure even as China’s activity data disappoints, with a fresh multi-month low in the daily fixing reinforcing a gradual RMB appreciation bias. While technicals stay mildly bearish, near-term direction will hinge on whether policymakers slow the pace of lower fixes or allow further downside in spot. Pair was last at 7.0371 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.PBoC fix hits new multi-month low"USD/CNH continued to trade with a heavy bias despite activity data coming in softer – retail sales, industrial production and new home prices underwhelmed. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart remains intact while RSI is near oversold conditions. Next support is closer to 7 levels. Resistance at 7.05, 7.0780 (21 DMA).""Today’s fix was set to a fresh multi-month low of 7.0602 vs. yesterday’s fix at 7.0656. The broader fixing pattern remains consistent since Apr-2025 and we view this as a deliberate move to steer the RMB on a gradual appreciation path while maintaining market order." "But in the near term, we continue to watch if policymakers would moderate the pace of setting the fix lower (i.e. set the fix higher in attempt to slow the pace of RMB appreciation) or continue with a similar trajectory. The latter may continue to add to downside pressure while the former may see some temporary consolidation in spot."

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.1% below forecasts (1.2%) in November
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.1% below forecasts (1.2%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in November
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (1.1%) in November
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (1.1%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in November
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.6 below forecasts (53.9) in December
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.6 below forecasts (53.9) in December

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.9) in December: Actual (49.2)
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.9) in December: Actual (49.2)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.9, below expectations (53) in December
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.9, below expectations (53) in December

10:33 Pound Sterling attracts bids on better-than-projected UK wage data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) demonstrates sheer volatility against its major currency peers on Tuesday, following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for the three months ending in October.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rebounds against its major peers after the release of the UK employment data.UK’s wage growth grew faster than projected, while labor demand remained weak in the three months ending October.Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed interest rate outlook.The Pound Sterling (GBP) demonstrates sheer volatility against its major currency peers on Tuesday, following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for the three months ending in October.The British currency initially responded positively to the employment data, as the report showed that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at an annualized pace of 4.6%, faster than estimates of 4.5%. Additionally, the reading of the three-months ending September has been revised higher to 4.7% from 4.6%.Average Earnings Including Bonuses grew at a faster pace of 4.7%, compared to expectations of 4.4%, but slower than the prior release of 4.9%, revised higher from 4.8%.However, the upside reaction could falter as the labor demand has deteriorated further, with the ILO Unemployment Rate rising to 5.1%, as expected, from the prior reading of 5%. In addition, the UK labor force has witnessed lay-offs again. The UK economy shed 17K jobs in the three-months ending October, but lower than the prior reading of 22K lay-offs.Signs of higher-than-projected wage growth and weak labor demand are expected to force Bank of England (BoE) officials to perform a delicate balancing act in the monetary policy meeting on Thursday. According to market expectations, the BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%.Before the monetary policy announcement, investors will also focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Wednesday.Later on Tuesday, investors should brace for more volatility in the Pound Sterling as the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December is scheduled to be published at 09:30 GMT.Pound Sterling consolidates against US Dollar ahead of US NFP dataThe Pound Sterling trades flat near 1.3370 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair recovers initial losses after the release of the UK employment data. The Cable is expected to trade with caution ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.25.Investors will closely monitor the US NFP to get cues on the current labor market status. The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy created 40K fresh jobs in November. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is seen remaining steady at 4.4%.The employment data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.Broadly, the DXY is underperforming its major peers, trading close to its eight-week low of 98.14 posted last week, as traders are increasingly confident that the Fed will deliver more interest rate cuts than projected in last week's policy announcement.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 74% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the Fed’s dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers see the Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026, indicating only one more interest rate cut from current levels of 3.50%-3.75%.In Tuesday’s session, investors will also focus on the US Retail Sales data for October and the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD strives to break above 1.3400GBP/USD trades higher around 1.3370 as of writing. The pair holds above a rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 1.3294, keeping the near-term bias pointed higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 reflects positive momentum without overbought conditions.Measured from the 1.3783 high to the 1.3008 low, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3304 has been cleared, underpinning the recovery tone. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3395 marks immediate resistance, and a break higher would extend the rebound towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.3488. Failure to top that barrier could see consolidation back toward the moving average.The trend remains supported while price sustains above the ascending 20-day EMA, though a drop beneath 1.3286 would open the door for further downside towards the December low of 1.3180.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (48.5) in December: Actual (47.7)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (48.5) in December: Actual (47.7)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (52.5) in December: Actual (51.5)
Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (52.5) in December: Actual (51.5)

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.8) in December: Actual (52.6)
Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.8) in December: Actual (52.6)

10:19 EUR/USD holds gains ahead of Eurozone business activity figures
EUR/USD remains steady near two-and-a-half-month highs on Tuesday, trading practically flat at 1.1750 at the time of writing, ahead of the release of the preliminary Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for December and the delayed US employment figures.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The EUR/USD trades broadly steady at 1.1750, with highs of 1.1760-1.1770 in focus.Eurozone PMIs are expected to show a slight improvement in business activity in December.The EUR/USD rally starts giving signs of exhaustion.EUR/USD remains steady near two-and-a-half-month highs on Tuesday, trading practically flat at 1.1750 at the time of writing, ahead of the release of the preliminary Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for December and the delayed US employment figures.Markets are in a moderate risk-off mood. Most Asian stock markets have posted losses, and the main European equity index futures are pointing to a negative opening, which keeps Euro (EUR) bulls in check. The US Dollar Index (DXY), on the other hand, remains pinned near multi-month lows, which is keeping the EUR/USD's downside attempts limited.During the US market session, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls reports for October and November. These figures are expected to provide further insight into the momentum of the US labour market, although the lack of key data, which was not collected during the government shutdown, will deprive traders of the full picture. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% -0.00% -0.26% -0.04% -0.03% -0.02% 0.00% EUR 0.02% 0.01% -0.22% -0.03% -0.02% 0.00% 0.02% GBP 0.00% -0.01% -0.25% -0.04% -0.03% -0.02% 0.00% JPY 0.26% 0.22% 0.25% 0.20% 0.21% 0.21% 0.24% CAD 0.04% 0.03% 0.04% -0.20% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% AUD 0.03% 0.02% 0.03% -0.21% -0.01% 0.01% 0.04% NZD 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% -0.21% -0.01% -0.01% 0.02% CHF -0.01% -0.02% -0.00% -0.24% -0.05% -0.04% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: The US Dollar remains depressed ahead of US employment dataThe Euro (EUR) remains supported near recent highs as investors continue to bet on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep rates on hold at Thursday's meeting, and might even hint at a rate hike in the second half of 2026.Data from the US released on Monday failed to support the US Dollar. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -3.9 in December, below the 10.6 reading forecasted by the market and also below November's 18.7 reading.In the Eurozone, on the other hand, Industrial Production data beat expectations with a 0.8% growth in October, from 0.2% in September, and market forecasts of a mere 0.1% advance. Year-on-year, industrial production increased 2%, from the 1.2% growth seen in September.Beyond that, negotiations for a peace deal in Ukraine continue. US offered NATO-style security guarantees to Kiev after US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's meeting in Berlin, which has provided some support to the Euro.Later on Tuesday, Eurozone Services PMI is expected to have edged up to 53.9 in December, from 53.6 in November, while the Manufacturing PMI is seen ticking up to 49.9 from 49.6 but still within levels consistent with a contracting business activity.In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls data are expected to show a 40K net increase in payrolls in November, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%. October's payroll figures will also be out, although the jobless rate will not be released due to a lack of data.At the same time, the US Commerce Department will release October's Retail Sales, which are expected to have grown 0.2%, the same pace as in September. Excluding automobiles, US retail consumption is expected to have risen 0.2%, slightly below September's 0.3% growth. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD rally starts to give signs of exhaustionEUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
The EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend intact, but Monday's upside attempts failed to confirm above last week's high at 1.1763, and technical indicators are pointing to a weakening momentum. The. 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a bearish divergence, although still at levels within bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recently crossed below the signal line, hinting at a deeper correction.Immediate support is at the December 12 low, near 1.1720. Below that, the December 11 low at the 1.1685 area, and the December 9 low at 1.1615 will emerge as the next bearish targets. To the upside, the 1.1760-1.1770 area has capped bulls on December 11 and 15, ahead of the October 1 peak at around 1.1780. The pair has a significant resistance area here, which should be cleared to shift the focus towards the September 23 and 24 highs near 1.1820. Economic Indicator HCOB Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 49.9 Previous: 49.6 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 53.9 Previous: 53.6 Source: S&P Global

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI down to 50.1 in December from previous 50.4
France HCOB Composite PMI down to 50.1 in December from previous 50.4

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.3) in December
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.3) in December

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (48.2) in December
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (48.2) in December

09:17 GBP/JPY rebounds from over one-week low, back above 207.00 after UK jobs data
The GBB/JPY cross prolongs its recent pullback from the 209.00 neighborhood or the highest level since August 2008, touched last week, and drifts lower for the fourth straight day on Tuesday.

09:16 EUR/GBP trims gains below 0.8800 after UK labor market report
The EUR/GBP cross pares gains near 0.8785 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some lost ground against the Euro (EUR) after the UK employment data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP holds positive ground around 0.8785 in Tuesday’s early European session.UK Unemployment Rate climbed to 5.1% in three months to October; Claimant Count Change came in at 20.1K in November. The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday for the fourth consecutive meeting.The EUR/GBP cross pares gains near 0.8785 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some lost ground against the Euro (EUR) after the UK employment data. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports from the Eurozone, France and Germany, which are due later on Tuesday. The attention will shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions on Thursday. Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that the country’s ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to October, versus 5.0% prior. This figure came in line with the expectations during the reported period. Meanwhile, the Claimant Count Change increased by 20.1K in November versus a decline of 3.9K prior (revised from 29K). The Pound Sterling attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat UK employment report. However, the rising bets of a BoE rate cut might cap the upside for the GBP. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely anticipated to cut the base interest rate from the current 4.0% to 3.75% at its next meeting on Thursday. This would mark the first rate reduction since August and bring borrowing costs to their lowest level in nearly three years.On the Euro’s front, markets widely expect the ECB to hold interest rates steady at their current levels at its December meeting on Thursday, continuing a pause in its easing cycle. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting interest rates could support the EUR against the GBP in the near term. ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said that she was "rather comfortable" to see traders pencil in hikes, fueling expectations of possible ECB rate rises next year. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel stated that the current rates are in a "good place," reinforcing the consensus for a hold. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:04 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate unchanged at 4.4% in November
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate unchanged at 4.4% in November

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.6% above expectations (4.5%) in October
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.6% above expectations (4.5%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (4.4%) in October
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (4.4%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (5.1%) in October
United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (5.1%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): -17K (October) vs -22K
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): -17K (October) vs -22K

09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change below expectations (22.3K) in November: Actual (20.1K)
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change below expectations (22.3K) in November: Actual (20.1K)

08:45 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Recovers a few pips from 0.6620-0.6615 resistance-turned-support
The AUD/USD pair prolongs last week's retracement slide from a nearly three-month peak, around the 0.6685 region, and drifts lower for the fourth straight day on Tuesday.

08:32 USD/CHF trades calmly near 0.7960 in countdown to US NFP
The USD/CHF pair trades stably around 0.7960 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair remains calm as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}USD/CHF flattens around 0.7960 ahead of the combined US NFP report for October and November.The US NFP is expected to come in at 40K in November, lower than 119K in September.Swiss government sees inflation averaging at 0.2% this year and in 2026.The USD/CHF pair trades stably around 0.7960 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair remains calm as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.Ahead of the US employment data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, remains on the defensive near the eight-week low around 98.15.The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 40K fresh workers, significantly lower than 119K in September. The Unemployment Rate is projected to come in steady at 4.4%. The impact of the US employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook as comments from officials in past few months have shown that they are more concerned about the labor market health than inflation remaining above the 2% target.On Friday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said in a LinkedIn post that she favored interest rate cuts in the policy meeting on Wednesday as “inflation is too high and the job market is getting softer, adding that “we [Fed] cannot let the labor market falter", Reuters reported.In Tuesday’s session, other notable highlights in the US economy are Retail Sales data for November, and the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades subduedly as latest projections from Switzerland government have shown that the inflation is projected to average at 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, capping the hopes of policy normalization by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the near term. The administration sees inflation rising at a faster pace of 0.5% in 2027. On the economic front, the government expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slowdown to 1.1% in 2026 before expanding by 1.4% this year. Related news Nonfarm Payrolls expected to highlight US labor market weakened in November US Dollar Index softens below 98.50 ahead of US NFP data CHF: Swiss inflation shows early signs of stabilization – Commerzbank

08:05 Forex Today: US Nonfarm Payrolls data to ramp up volatility
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 16:

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The US economic calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November, alongside the wage inflation and Unemployment Rate figures for November. Additionally, October Retail Sales and the preliminary December S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings will be watched closely. US Dollar Price This Month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.30% -0.93% -0.84% -1.48% -1.28% -0.80% -0.89% EUR 1.30% 0.38% 0.45% -0.18% 0.02% 0.51% 0.42% GBP 0.93% -0.38% 0.33% -0.56% -0.36% 0.12% 0.04% JPY 0.84% -0.45% -0.33% -0.65% -0.47% 0.03% -0.06% CAD 1.48% 0.18% 0.56% 0.65% 0.15% 0.70% 0.61% AUD 1.28% -0.02% 0.36% 0.47% -0.15% 0.49% 0.40% NZD 0.80% -0.51% -0.12% -0.03% -0.70% -0.49% -0.09% CHF 0.89% -0.42% -0.04% 0.06% -0.61% -0.40% 0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The USD Index lost about 0.15% on Monday as the cautious market atmosphere helped the currency limit its losses in the second half of the day. In the European morning on Tuesday, the USD Index moves sideways above 98.00, while US stock index futures lose between 0.3% and 0.8%. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4% in November, and the NFP is expected to rise by 40K. Related news Nonfarm Payrolls expected to highlight US labor market weakened in November NFP preview: Complex data release will determine if Fed was right to cut rates USD consolidates as markets await NFP – Scotiabank EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.1750 after registering small gains on Monday. HCOB PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic calendar later in the session.GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and ended the day virtually unchanged. The pair edges slightly lower in the European morning on Tuesday but holds above 1.3350. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release October employment data at 07:00 GMT.The data from Canada showed that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 2.2% in November. This print came in below the market expectation of 2.4%. USD/CAD extends its sideways grind below 1.3800 after closing flat on Monday.USD/JPY lost about 0.4% on Monday on growing expectations for a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook. The pair continues to stretch lower early Tuesday and was last seen down 0.25% on the day at 154.83.The data from Australia showed that the business activity in the private sector continued to expand in December, albeit at a softer pace than it did in November, with the S&P Global Composite PMI edging lower to 51.1 from 52.6. AUD/USD remains under modest bearish pressure after this report and trades below 0.6650.Gold lost its bullish momentum after testing $4,350 and closed flat on Monday. XAU/USD stays on the back foot early Tuesday and trades near $4,280, losing about 0.5% on the day. Growing optimism about a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement seems to be causing the precious metal to lose interest. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

07:57 USD/INR continues bull run amid continuous foreign outflows ahead of US NFP data
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its losing streak for the fourth trading day against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.

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The USD/INR pair stretches its bull run to near 91.25 as the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market amid trade frictions between the United States (US) and India has remained a major drag on the Indian Rupee.A report from Reuters has also shown that the USD/INR pair has remained firm due to strong dollar demand linked to likely maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market and continued foreign portfolio outflows.So far this month, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded stake worth Rs. 21,073.83 crore in the Indian equity market, while remaining net sellers in all trading days.Meanwhile, better-than-projected India’s Trade Deficit Government data for November has failed to lift investors’ sentiment toward the Indian Rupee. On Monday, the data showed that India’s merchandize trade deficit shrank to $24.53 billion from $41.68 billion in October, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion. The trade deficit report also showed that India’s overall goods exports for November rose 19%, largely contributed by a 22.6% increase in merchandize transport to the US.On the economic data front, India’s HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 58.9 from 59.7 in November, suggesting that the overall business activity expanded but at a moderate pace. The overall private sector output growth cooled down due to a slowdown in both manufacturing and the service sector activity.Daily digest market movers: Investors await US NFP data for October and NovemberThe Indian Rupee remains on the back foot against the US Dollar, even as the latter underperforms broadly ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) combined report for October and November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades tightly close to the eight-week low of 98.13 posted on Thursday.Investors will closely monitor the US employment data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The Fed has reduced its interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) this year, and comments from members have signaled that the major driver behind rate cuts was weak labor market conditions.On Monday, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said at an event hosted by the New Jersey Bankers Association that the “monetary policy is very focused on balancing jobs," adding that the labor market “is clearly cooling”.According to expectations, the US Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.4% in November. Signs of further weakness in employment conditions would prompt Fed dovish expectations, while indication of an improvement might weigh on the same.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at least two times by the end of 2026.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds above 91.00
USD/INR trades around 91.25 in the opening session on Tuesday, the highest level seen ever. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 90.0726 supports the bullish bias, with pullbacks expected to hold on first tests of the average. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.89 is overbought, demonstrating strong momentum with signals pointing stretched conditions that could temper immediate upside.The upward-sloping average should act as first support on dips, while a daily close below it would signal a deeper correction toward the round-level figure of 90.00. Looking up, a sustained strength above the current level would extend the advance toward 92.00.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:45 US Dollar Index softens below 98.50 ahead of US NFP data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a negative note near 98.25 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.

07:00 India HSBC Services PMI: 59.1 (December) vs previous 59.8
India HSBC Services PMI: 59.1 (December) vs previous 59.8

07:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 56.6 to 55.7 in December
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 56.6 to 55.7 in December

07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.9 in December from previous 59.7
India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 58.9 in December from previous 59.7

07:00 Nonfarm Payrolls expected to highlight US labor market weakened in November
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 40K in November after the September increase of 119K.The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the delayed jobs data on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT.The US Dollar is set to experience intense volatility on the employment data amid growing labor market concerns.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. Volatility around the US Dollar (USD) will likely ramp up on the employment reports for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates going into the turn of the year.What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?Tuesday’s US employment report will be unusual, covering data for both October and November. October's data won’t be complete as the BLS will only release indicators from the establishment survey due to collection issues caused by the government shutdown.
Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 40,000 in November. Markets also eagerly await the October figure after the 119,000-job gain seen in September.The Unemployment Rate (UE) is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4% during the same period.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, for October and November will also be published alongside the NFP releases. The AHE rose 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in September.Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “We expect the November employment report to show a 70k rebound in job gains after contracting by 60k in October. Weakness in both months will likely be led by the government sector.”“We also look for the UE rate to edge higher to 4.5% in November as the labor market gradually softens. Average Hourly Earnings likely rebounded to 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) after a subdued 0.1% in October,” they added.How will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?The US Dollar is hanging close to two-month troughs against its major currency rivals in the aftermath of a less hawkish Fed outcome and ahead of the highly anticipated NFP publication.The broad USD weakness has sent the EUR/USD pair back above the 1.1700 mark. Will the major see additional upside?The Fed announced the expected 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his cautious tone at his post-monetary policy meeting press conference, disappointing those who had been positioned for a more hawkish one.Powell noted: “First of all, gradual cooling in the labor market has continued,” adding that “unemployment is now up three-tenths from June through September.”Markets continued to price in two more rate cuts next year, against the US central bank’s median expectation for a single quarter-percentage-point cut next year, smashing the Greenback across the board.On the economic data front, the Labor Department reported last week that Initial Claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 44,000, the biggest increase since mid-July of 2021, to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended December 6.Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI showed little improvement in November at 52.6 compared with 52.4 in October, while the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that US private payrolls unexpectedly declined by 32K in November, following a revised 47K increase. Analysts estimated a job gain of 5K.The employment placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said earlier this month that “recent signs from unofficial data point to heavier job reductions to come, with announced layoffs through November topping 1.1 million.”With growing labor market concerns, expressed by Powell as well, the NFP data will be closely scrutinized to help determine the number of Fed rate cuts expected in 2026.A weaker-than-expected headline NFP release and an unexpected increase in the Unemployment Rate in November could aggravate concerns over the slowdown in the US jobs market, bolstering bets for another rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting in January. In such a case, the USD could see a fresh leg down, driving EUR/USD closer toward 1.1800.Conversely, if the NFP beats estimates and the Unemployment Rate stays at 4.4% or even falls, EUR/USD could come under strong bearish pressure toward 1.1600. A positive surprise in the jobs data would push back against expectations of more than one Fed rate cut next year, providing the much-needed cushioning to the Greenback.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “The main currency pair consolidates near the two-month high of 1.1769, while holding well beyond all the major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with the overbought territory on the daily chart, suggesting that there is more scope for upside. Further, the crossover of the 21-day and 50-day SMAs adds credence to the bullish potential in the pair.”“If the upside regains traction, the next resistance is seen at the 1.1800 round level, above which the 1.1850 psychological barrier will be tested. The September 17 high of 1.1919 will be next on buyers’ radars. On the flip side, any corrective pullback could see initial support at the 100-day SMA of 1.1644. The next demand area is seen at around 1.1610, where the 21-day and 50-day SMAs hang around. Deeper declines could challenge the 1.1550 level.” Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report. Read more. Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 4.4% Previous: 4.4% Source: Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

06:47 When is the UK labor market report and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish its labor market report at 07.00 GMT. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.1% in October from 5.0% in September. Employment Change arrived at -22K in September.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} UK labor market report overviewThe UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish its labor market report at 07.00 GMT. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.1% in October from 5.0% in September. Employment Change arrived at -22K in September.The UK Claimant Count Change for November is projected to increase by 22.3K, reflecting the number of people claiming jobless benefits. The reading was 29K in October. Meanwhile, the Claimant Count Rate was at 4.4% in the previous month.Meanwhile, UK Average Earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to October, are estimated to accelerate by 4.4%, following 4.8% prior, while ex-bonuses, the wages are forecast to rise by 4.5% against the previous 4.6%.How could the UK labor market report affect GBP/USD?GBP/USD trades in negative territory on the day in the lead up to the UK labor market data. The pair loses ground as traders turn cautious ahead of the key US economic data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Retail Sales, and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will be released later on Tuesday.If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Pound Sterling (GBP), with the first upside barrier seen at the 1.3400 psychological level. The next resistance level emerges at the December 11 high of 1.3438, en route to the October 17 high of 1.3471.To the downside, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3330 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the December 9 low of 1.3287. The next contention level is located at the December 3 low of 1.3202. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 5.1% Previous: 5% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:56 When are the German/ Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} German/ Eurozone flash PMIs OverviewThe preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to come in slightly weaker due to a slowdown in the service sector activity. However, the overall business output is anticipated to hold above the 50.0 threshold, a level that separates expansion from contraction.Preliminary Services PMI is seen at 52.8, lower than 53.1 in the final reading from November. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have contracted again, but at a slower pace, to 48.5 from the prior reading of 48.2.The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI shows that the overall private sector output increased at a faster pace in December due to an improvement in both manufacturing and the services sector activity. The Services PMI is seen at 53.9, up from 53.6 in November. Like the German Manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing activity in the old continent has contracted too, but at a moderate pace to 49.9 from the previous release of 49.6.How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1750 as of writing ahead of the German/Eurozone PMI data. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1658 slopes higher and stays below the spot, keeping the short-term bias upward and offering initial support. A sustained hold above the 20-day EMA would preserve bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.22 is near overbought levels, flagging stretched upside. Measured from the 1.1920 high to the 1.1468 low, the stop wobbles around the 61.8% retracement at 1.1747. Going forward, a break above the same would unlock the 78.6% retracement at 1.1823. On setbacks, the rising 20-day EMA is expected to support the move. However, a close beneath it would soften the tone that might make it vulnerable towards the round-level figure of 1.1600.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) German economy FAQs What is the effect of the German Economy on the Euro? The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets. What is the political role of Germany within the Eurozone? Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members. What are German Bunds? Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity. What are German Bund Yields? German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices. What is the Bundesbank? The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

05:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below 100-hour SMA pivotal support near $62.50
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's move up back closer to the record high. The white metal slides further below mid-$62.00s in the last hour, losing over 2.5% for the day.

05:13 USD/CAD flattens around 1.3770 ahead of delayed US NFP data
The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3775 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD trades flat around 1.3770 in the countdown to the US NFP data for October and November.The US Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained steady at 4.4% in November.Canada’s headline and core CPI rose steadily by 2.2% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively.The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3775 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive ahead of the delayed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) combined report for October and November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles near the eight-week low around 98.15.Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get cues about the current status of labour demand. The data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook in the near term, as the central bank has reduced its interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% this year, mainly due to weak job market conditions. Economists expect the US Unemployment Rate to have remained steady at 4.4% in November.Apart from the US NFP data, other major highlights of the day will be the Retail Sales data for November and the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December. Month-on-month Retail Sales are expected to have grown steadily by 0.2%.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly calm as Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November has shown steady growth. The CPI report on Monday showed that the headline inflation grew steadily by 2.2% on an annualized basis, slower than estimates of 2.4%. Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI – which excludes the eight most volatile items – rose steadily by 2.9%.In the monetary policy statement last week, the BoC stated that the “underlying inflation is around 2.5%”, but will broadly remain close to the 2% target as “economic slack would roughly offset cost pressures linked to trade reconfiguration”. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

05:11 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot amid rising BoJ rate hike bets and softer risk tone
The Japanese Yen (JPY) climbs to a one-and-a-half-week top against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Tuesday and seems poised to appreciate further. Market participants seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates this week.

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Market participants seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates this week. This, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, contributes to the safe-haven JPY's outperformance for the second straight day. This also marks the fourth day of a positive move for the JPY in the previous five, though bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the key central bank event risk.Moreover, worries about Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition, on the back of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's massive spending plan, might hold back the JPY bulls from placing fresh bets. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles near a two-month low, touched on Monday, amid rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a significant divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations, which, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook for the lower-yielding JPY and backs the case for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend for the USD/JPY pair.Japanese Yen remains well supported by hawkish BoJ bets and safe-haven demandTraders ramped up their bets for an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike following Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments last week, saying that the likelihood of the central bank's baseline economic and price outlook materialising had been gradually increasing.Moreover, a quarterly survey of major Japanese manufacturers released on Monday showed that business sentiment improved to its best level in four years. This backs the case for further BoJ policy tightening and continues to underpin the Japanese Yen.Meanwhile, private-sector surveys released this Tuesday showed that Japan's manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace and the service sector lost some steam in December. This, however, does little to dent the bullish sentiment around the JPY.The defensive mood keeps Asian equity markets under pressure amid valuation concerns and fears of the AI bubble burst. This is seen as another factor benefiting the JPY's safe-haven status and weighing on the USD/JPY pair amid a bearish US Dollar.Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook, traders are pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2026. This, in turn, keeps the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, depressed near its lowest level in over two months.Moreover, expectations for a dovish replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell weigh on the USD and drag the USD/JPY pair below the 155.00 psychological mark. Traders, however, might opt to wait for important US macro data and the central bank event risk.This week's busy US economic docket features the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October, due later during the North American session. This, along with the flash US PMIs, might influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair.The market attention will then shift to the latest US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which will be looked for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path and drive the USD. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations favor the JPY bulls.USD/JPY seems vulnerable to retest the monthly swing low, around the 155.35-155.30 regionThe recent repeated failures near the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent breakdown below the 155.00 mark favor the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts back the case for a further near-term depreciating move towards the monthly swing low, around the 154.35 region. This is followed by the 154.00 round figure, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move.On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempted might now confront an immediate hurdle near the 155.40-155.45 region, above which the USD/JPY pair could aim to challenge the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged around the 156.00 mark. Some follow-through buying might trigger a short-covering move and lift spot prices to the 157.00 neighborhood, or the monthly swing high, touched last week. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth fell from previous 7.2% to 7.1% in October
South Korea Money Supply Growth fell from previous 7.2% to 7.1% in October

04:53 WTI declines below $56.50 on potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $56.35 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price remains under selling pressure amid renewed signs of optimism surrounding a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

03:36 GBP/USD remains confined in a range above mid-1.3300s ahead of UK jobs report
The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the 1.3370-1.3365 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

03:17 NZD/USD weakens below 0.5800 on disappointing Chinese data, US NFP data in focus
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day around 0.5775 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The downbeat Chinese economic data exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD).

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602 vs. 7.0656 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.0602 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0656.

03:11 AUD/USD remains depressed below mid-0.6600s; downside seems limited ahead of US NFP report
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers for the fourth straight day on Tuesday and trades around the 0.6630 region, down just over 0.10%, during the Asian session.

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This, along with a weaker tone around the global equity markets, is seen weighing on the perceived riskier Australian Dollar (AUD) and the AUD/USD pair.However, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance limits deeper AUD losses. In fact, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said last week that it looks like more rate cuts are not needed and added that the Board discussed what they might have to do if rates need to go up. This, along with sustained US Dollar (USD) selling, offers support to the AUD/USD pair.The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near its lowest level since October 7 amid rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Furthermore, expectations for a dovish replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell keep the USD bulls on the defensive and could act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair.Traders also seem reluctant and might opt to wait for this week's important macro data, starting with the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October, before placing aggressive directional bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's three-week-old uptrend has run out of steam. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (48.8) in December
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (48.8) in December

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 52.5 in December from previous 53.2
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 52.5 in December from previous 53.2

02:19 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds gains above $4,300 on prospect of further Fed rate cuts
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $4,305, the highest since October 21, during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher on further US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut bets. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will take center stage later on Tuesday.

01:33 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence increased to 94.5% in December from previous 12.8%
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence increased to 94.5% in December from previous 12.8%

01:28 USD/JPY weakens to near 155.00 amid BoJ rate hike bets, US data awaited
The USD/JPY pair loses traction to around 155.10 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid the expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on Friday.

00:27 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 52.2 in December
Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 51.6 to 52.2 in December

00:22 Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 52.2 in December
The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.2 in December versus 51.6 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global showed on Friday.

00:21 EUR/USD supported above 1.1700 as weaker Dollar sets tone before NFP
EUR/USD holds firms above the 1.1700 threshold on Monday as the US Dollar weakens while investors wait for the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1739 unchanged.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades around 1.1739 as Dollar weakens, with DXY posting a third loss in four sessions.Mixed Fed commentary persists, with Miran dovish, Collins neutral, and Williams signaling policy near neutral.Markets focus on upcoming US NFP and Retail Sales, key catalysts for Dollar and Fed policy expectations.EUR/USD holds firms above the 1.1700 threshold on Monday as the US Dollar weakens while investors wait for the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1739 unchanged.Euro steadies near multi-week highs as traders await Nonfarm Payrolls and assess mixed Fed rhetoricGreenback continues to edge lower down 0.10% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, registers the third daily loss in the last four, poised to reach the 98.00 figure if the jobs market continues to deteriorate.The US docket featured a tranche of Fed officials. Fed Governor Stephen Mira was dovish while Boston Fed President Susan Collins justified her decision at the December meeting, striking neutral comments.Contrarily, New York Fed President John Williams was modestly hawkish, saying that policy has moved “from modestly restrictive” to neutral.On Tuesday, market participants would digest the November Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales alongside further comments by Fed speakers.Across the pond, a Reuters poll revealed that economists project the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain in hold throughout 2026 as they estimate inflation to remain subdued, but the economy is expected to stay resilient.Ahead of the week, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at the December 18 meeting. Euro Price This Month The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.32% -1.01% -0.61% -1.47% -1.38% -0.83% -0.93% EUR 1.32% 0.31% 0.75% -0.16% -0.06% 0.48% 0.39% GBP 1.01% -0.31% 0.69% -0.47% -0.37% 0.16% 0.08% JPY 0.61% -0.75% -0.69% -0.88% -0.81% -0.26% -0.32% CAD 1.47% 0.16% 0.47% 0.88% 0.04% 0.64% 0.55% AUD 1.38% 0.06% 0.37% 0.81% -0.04% 0.54% 0.46% NZD 0.83% -0.48% -0.16% 0.26% -0.64% -0.54% -0.10% CHF 0.93% -0.39% -0.08% 0.32% -0.55% -0.46% 0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily market movers: EUR/USD unchanged despite Fed hawkish rhetoricLast week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in 2025, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75% in a split decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers could pause the easing cycle as the economy absorbs the cumulative 75 basis points of rate cuts delivered this year.Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she sees inflation risks lower than before, backing the latest rate cut amid a shift in the balance of risks.New York Fed President John Williams stressed that restoring inflation to the 2% target remains critical, noting that firms appear reluctant to both hire and fire. Williams expects the unemployment rate to hold near 4.5% by year-end and sees inflation reaching target in 2027. He projects GDP at 2.25% in 2026, above the expected pace for 2025.Earlier, Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintained a distinctly dovish stance, arguing that a faster pace of rate cuts would move policy closer to neutral. He reiterated expectations for a faster decline in shelter inflation within the PCE index and downplayed the role of tariffs in driving goods inflation higher.US November Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show job gains of 40K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%. October Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.2% MoM, unchanged from September, while control-group sales—used to calculate GDP—are projected to rebound to 0.3% after a 0.1% contraction previously.Technical outlook: EUR/USD remains upward bias despite remaining subduedEUR/USD’s technical setup points to a neutral-to-bullish bias, which would be reinforced if the pair manages to close the week above 1.1700. Momentum indicators support this view, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning higher and signaling strengthening buying interest.A break above the December 11 high at 1.1762 would clear the way toward 1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 region and, ultimately, the yearly high at 1.1918. Conversely, if the pair tumbles below 1.1700 it would shift the focus to initial support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1645, ahead of the 1.1600 handle.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:01 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 51.1 in December from previous 52.6
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 51.1 in December from previous 52.6

00:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI dipped from previous 52.8 to 51 in December
Australia S&P Global Services PMI dipped from previous 52.8 to 51 in December

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Forex News Timeline

17:03 EUR/USD climbs to three-month high after delayed US jobs and Retail Sales data The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after brief two-way volatility as traders digested the delayed US labour market and consumer spending data.

17:00 United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0.2%) in September United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0.2%) in September

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52) in December United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52) in December

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.9, below expectations (54.1) in December United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.9, below expectations (54.1) in December

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 53 in December from previous 54.2 United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 53 in December from previous 54.2

16:39 New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous -4.3% to -4.4% New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous -4.3% to -4.4%

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 5.7% to 6.2% in December 12 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 5.7% to 6.2% in December 12

15:37 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in October United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in October

15:36 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) up to 0.4% in October from previous 0.2% United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) up to 0.4% in October from previous 0.2%

15:35 United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (October) United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (October)

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) declined to 3.5% in October from previous 3.8% United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) declined to 3.5% in October from previous 3.8%

15:31 United States Nonfarm Payrolls: -105K (October) vs previous 119K United States Nonfarm Payrolls: -105K (October) vs previous 119K

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) down to 0.1% in October from previous 0.2% United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) down to 0.1% in October from previous 0.2%

15:31 United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 (October) vs 34.2 United States Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 (October) vs 34.2

15:31 United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in October United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in October

15:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.5% (October) vs previous 4.3% United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.5% (October) vs previous 4.3%

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls down to 64K in October from previous 119K United States Nonfarm Payrolls down to 64K in October from previous 119K

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to -5% in November from previous 8% United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to -5% in November from previous 8%

15:30 United States Average Weekly Hours above forecasts (34.2) in November: Actual (34.3) United States Average Weekly Hours above forecasts (34.2) in November: Actual (34.3)

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.7% (November) vs 8% United States U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.7% (November) vs 8%

15:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in October United States Retail Sales Control Group came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.3%) in October

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 64K above expectations (50K) in November United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 64K above expectations (50K) in November

15:30 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in November United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in November

15:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in October

15:30 United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5% (November) vs 62.4% United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5% (November) vs 62.4%

15:30 United States Unemployment Rate above expectations (4.4%) in November: Actual (4.6%) United States Unemployment Rate above expectations (4.4%) in November: Actual (4.6%)

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16.25K (November 29) vs 4.75K

14:32 GBP shows strength amid mixed UK data – BBH The Pound Sterling (GBP) outperformed as UK labor market conditions eased and the December PMI signaled firmer private sector growth, while markets fully priced in an upcoming Bank of England rate cut, BBH FX analysts report.

14:21 EUR/USD near highest level since early October – BBH EUR/USD is trading near its highest level since October 1 as Eurozone PMI data showed a modest slowdown, while German ZEW expectations improved sharply.

14:07 USD trades heavy ahead of November NFP release – BBH US Dollar (USD) is trading heavy near the middle of its June-December range. USD is set for a choppy trading day as key US data hit the wire. US November nonfarm payrolls (NFP) comes today, BBH FX analysts report.

14:00 Gold under pressure as traders brace for delayed US NFP release Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data docket that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path into 2026.

13:04 Oil: Brent Crude falls below $60 for first time in over seven months – Commerzbank Brent Crude fell below $60 per barrel this morning, marking the lowest level in more than seven months, while WTI closed at its weakest since February 2021.

12:57 DXY: US NFP report might shift Fed rate expectations – MUFG Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is set to influence market expectations for the Fed’s January meeting.

12:45 GBP softens as BoE rate cut looms – MUFG The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened at the start of the week, pushing EUR/GBP closer to 0.8800.

12:40 USD/JPY dips ahead of expected BOJ hike – OCBC USD/JPY softened as UST yields slipped, with the market largely pricing in a 25bp Bank of Japan (BOJ) hike this Friday and another in 2026.

12:26 DXY: Fed officials signal preparedness for faster easing – OCBC Fed officials highlighted the need for flexibility in monetary policy, with Miran cautioning that labor market weakness can emerge rapidly and Williams noting that policy is well positioned after last week’s rate cut.

12:08 Eurozone ZEW Survey rises significantly to 33.7 in December vs. 26.3 estimates Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment jumps sharply to 33.7 in December. The sentiment indicator was expected to increase slightly to 26.3 from 25.0 in November.

12:02 Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.042B to €-1.31B in October Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.042B to €-1.31B in October

12:02 USD/CNH approaches 7.00 despite weak Chinese data – ING USD/CNH nears 7.00, despite disappointing Chinese activity data.

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (26.3) in December: Actual (33.7) Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (26.3) in December: Actual (33.7)

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €18.7B to €14B in October Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €18.7B to €14B in October

12:00 Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.22B) in October: Actual (€4.156B) Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.22B) in October: Actual (€4.156B)

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. dipped from previous €19.4B to €18.4B in October Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. dipped from previous €19.4B to €18.4B in October

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -81, below expectations (-80) in December Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -81, below expectations (-80) in December

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (38.5) in December: Actual (45.8) Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above forecasts (38.5) in December: Actual (45.8)

11:53 NZD: NZ food prices fall, but inflation remains elevated – Commerzbank Food prices in New Zealand fell by 0.4% in November compared with the previous month. However, they are still 4.4% higher than a year ago and therefore continue to pose a problem for the central bank.

11:46 USD: US NFP release in focus for today – ING The highlight of today's session will be the 1430CET release of the delayed NFP jobs report. We will receive job hiring updates for both October and November, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:36 JPY: Tankan reinforces case for BoJ rate hike – Commerzbank The flash estimates for the Japanese purchasing managers' indices were somewhat weaker this morning than in the previous month. However, at 51.5, the composite PMI remained in expansionary territory.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.15 per troy ounce, down 1.41% from the $64.06 it cost on Monday.

11:30 USD/CNH breaks lower as downtrend accelerates – Société Générale USD/CNH has extended its decline after breaking below the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel, reinforcing the broader bearish trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.2) in December: Actual (51.2) United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50.2) in December: Actual (51.2)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.1, above forecasts (51.4) in December United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.1, above forecasts (51.4) in December

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.5) in December: Actual (52.1) United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (51.5) in December: Actual (52.1)

11:21 Oil: Ceasefire hopes push Brent to six-month low – Commerzbank Renewed optimism over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire weighed on the Oil market yesterday. ICE Brent settled a little more than 0.9% lower, leaving it at $60.56/bbl -- the lowest close since May.

11:11 USD: Unusual Tuesday release for US jobs report – Commerzbank The US labour market report breaks with tradition by landing on a Tuesday, but expectations are modest, with job growth seen at just 50k and little change in unemployment.

11:04 USD/CNH stays heavy despite weak China data – OCBC USD/CNH remains under pressure even as China’s activity data disappoints, with a fresh multi-month low in the daily fixing reinforcing a gradual RMB appreciation bias.

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.1% below forecasts (1.2%) in November Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.1% below forecasts (1.2%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in November Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (1.1%) in November Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (1.1%) in November

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in November Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in November

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.6 below forecasts (53.9) in December Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.6 below forecasts (53.9) in December

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.9) in December: Actual (49.2) Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.9) in December: Actual (49.2)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.9, below expectations (53) in December Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.9, below expectations (53) in December

10:33 Pound Sterling attracts bids on better-than-projected UK wage data The Pound Sterling (GBP) demonstrates sheer volatility against its major currency peers on Tuesday, following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for the three months ending in October.

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (48.5) in December: Actual (47.7) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (48.5) in December: Actual (47.7)

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (52.5) in December: Actual (51.5) Germany HCOB Composite PMI below expectations (52.5) in December: Actual (51.5)

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.8) in December: Actual (52.6) Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (52.8) in December: Actual (52.6)

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI down to 50.1 in December from previous 50.4 France HCOB Composite PMI down to 50.1 in December from previous 50.4

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.3) in December France HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (51.3) in December

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (48.2) in December France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.6 above expectations (48.2) in December

09:17 GBP/JPY rebounds from over one-week low, back above 207.00 after UK jobs data The GBB/JPY cross prolongs its recent pullback from the 209.00 neighborhood or the highest level since August 2008, touched last week, and drifts lower for the fourth straight day on Tuesday.

09:16 EUR/GBP trims gains below 0.8800 after UK labor market report The EUR/GBP cross pares gains near 0.8785 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some lost ground against the Euro (EUR) after the UK employment data.

09:04 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate unchanged at 4.4% in November United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate unchanged at 4.4% in November

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.6% above expectations (4.5%) in October United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.6% above expectations (4.5%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (4.4%) in October United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (4.4%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (5.1%) in October United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) in line with expectations (5.1%) in October

09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): -17K (October) vs -22K United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): -17K (October) vs -22K

09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change below expectations (22.3K) in November: Actual (20.1K) United Kingdom Claimant Count Change below expectations (22.3K) in November: Actual (20.1K)

08:45 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Recovers a few pips from 0.6620-0.6615 resistance-turned-support The AUD/USD pair prolongs last week's retracement slide from a nearly three-month peak, around the 0.6685 region, and drifts lower for the fourth straight day on Tuesday.