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Forex News Timeline

Monday, November 12, 2018

Crude oil staged a modest recovery earlier today following Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih comments about OPEC+ looking into an additio

Saudi Arabia points at more output cuts to balance the market.US President Trump tweets out his opposition to additional supply reduction.Crude oil staged a modest recovery earlier today following Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih comments about OPEC+ looking into an additional supply cut of around one million barrels per day and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose above $61. However, with US President Donald Trump responding to this development, the barrel of WTI reversed its course and dipped below the critical $60 mark. As of writing, the WTI was trading around 80 cents above Friday's closing level at $60.10. "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!" Trump tweeted out in the last hour.  Earlier today, Saudi Arabia's al-Falih explained that their technical assessment suggested that they could cut OPEC+ oil output by around one million barrels per day from October peaks. Moreover, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo argued that the oil market would be in balance in the last quarter of 2018. Later this week, markets will be paying a close attention to OPEC's and the IEA's monthly reports on the global demand & supply forecasts as well as the API's and the EIA's weekly inventory data.Technical levels to considerWith a daily close below $60 (psychological level), the WTI could extend its losses $59.20 (Nov. 9 low) and $58.20 (Feb. 14 low). On the upside, resistances are located at $61.25 (daily high) ahead of $62.40 (Nov. 8 high) and $63.30 (Nov. 6 high).

USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3218 with a high of 1.3228 from a low of 1.3182 and has been supported on WTI  extending losses down to a low of $59

USD/CAD has been better bid since the FOMC statement and a resurgence in the greenback, now eyeing July highs 1.3290 and then June highs at 1.3387.USD/CAD bulls are also benefiting with the price of oil in free-fall. Last week there were reports that the Saudi’s were studying a break up of OPEC.USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3218 with a high of 1.3228 from a low of 1.3182 and has been supported on WTI  extending losses down to a low of $59.90bbls from $61.45bbls. The fall comes as the major oil producers have discussed a potential reduction to crude production while concerns over growth in output combined with expectations for a slowdown in demand mount up.A complex mix of fundamentals supporting the upsideThis comes at the same time as the resurgence in the greenback and also upon reports suggesting USMCA talks had hit a bump in the road. Analysts at Scotiabank explained that this is not unusual perhaps in the context of a complex agreement that is now being turned into legal text, "but the risk of renewed trade tensions (and the prospect of a delay in lifting of steel and aluminum tariffs) is clearly unhelpful for CAD sentiment, with investors having thought this issue had been put to rest."USD/CAD levelsThe analysts explained that USD/CAD key resistance comes in at 1.3325 (Sep high) but then little until the mid-year peaks (1.3290 and 1.3384). Support is 1.3155/65. Below there, nearby support would be 1.3020 and then the August and September lows as well as the 200 day moving average at 1.2928/882.

The Mexican peso is falling against the US dollar at the beginning of the week, approaching to multi-month lows. The USD/MXN pair rose to 20.36, near

Mexican peso remains under pressure versus US Dollar on risk aversion and domestic concerns. USD/MXN again capped by 20.30, still holds a bullish bias.  The Mexican peso is falling against the US dollar at the beginning of the week, approaching to multi-month lows. The USD/MXN pair rose to 20.36, near last week highs but then pulled back, trimming gains. As of writing was hovering slightly below 20.30, headed toward the second highest daily close since June.  The move higher took place after a correction of USD/MXN on Friday, on the back comments from Mexican President-elect Lopez Obrador, who said he was not going to make changes to the fiscal, banking and economic regime in three years. But the recovery of the Mexican peso was short-lived.  On Monday, a stronger US Dollar across the board boosted the pair to the upside. The DXY reached the highest level in 17 months above 97.30 while equity prices in Wall Street tumbled, adding to the negative sentiment toward emerging markets assets.  On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico will meet. Some analysts expect a 25bp rate hike to 8.0%, the highest rate in a decade while other see Banxico on hold. The depreciation of the Mexican peso boosted forecast for a rate hike. USD/MXN - Levels to watch To the upside, resistance levels might be located at 20.40, followed by 20.50 (psychological) and 20.65. On the flip side, support could lie at 20.05, 19.90 and 19.70.

Commenting on reports of OPEC and its allies planning to cut oil production by around 1 million barrels per day, "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC wil

Commenting on reports of OPEC and its allies planning to cut oil production by around 1 million barrels per day, "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!" US President Donald Trump said, via Twitter.

Analysts at ABN Amro explained that the weaker outlook for economic growth and core inflation will not prevent the ECB from ending its net asset purch

Analysts at ABN Amro explained that the weaker outlook for economic growth and core inflation will not prevent the ECB from ending its net asset purchases in December. Key Quotes:"That looks like a done deal, even though the central bank has said it is data dependent. We think it will turn to other tools, in particular the forward guidance on interest rates and reinvestments, in reaction to the weaker outlook. We think that in the first half of next year, the ECB will change its forward guidance on interest rates to signal that policy rates will remain unchanged next year.  In addition, we expect it to signal that reinvestments will continue well past the period of unchanged rates. We do not expect the ECB to end reinvestments until late in 2021." "There is obviously a lot of uncertainty when it comes to calling rate changes that are meant to take place so far into the future. A lot can happen between now and then.  One particular ECB-related uncertainty is that we will see a new Chief Economist and President by the end of next year. It seems to us that the most likely candidates will be centrists, with if anything, a dovish tilt, which would tend to support a very slow policy normalisation in the macroeconomic environment we sketch above.  Philip Lane, the current governor of the central bank of Ireland, seems the most likely candidate to be the new Chief Economist.  At the same time we think that Erkki Liikanen (former Governor of the central bank of Finland), Benoit Coeure (ECB Executive Board member) and Francois Villeroy (Governor of the Banque de France) are the front runners for the position of President. (Nick Kounis & Aline Schuiling)."

EUR/GBP 4-hour chart Main Trend:            Bearish Resistance 1:              0.8752 October 16 low Resistance 2:              0.8800 figure Resi

EUR/GBP is trading in a bear trend below its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).EUR/GBP recovers early losses and sticks to the 0.8752 level. Technical indicators are picking up steam suggesting potential gains ahead with 0.8800 figure on the bulls radar. On the flip side, supports to the downside are seen near 0.8700 and 0.8665 as the next level of support. EUR/GBP 4-hour chartMain Trend:            Bearish Resistance 1:              0.8752 October 16 low
Resistance 2:              0.8800 figure
Resistance 3:              0.8847 September 20 low 
Resistance 4:              0.8876 September 11 low Support 1:              0.8722 October low
Support 2:              0.8700 figure
Support 3:              0.8665 March 22 low
Support 4:              0.8600 figure
Additional key levels at a glance:EUR/GBP Overview:
    Last Price: 0.8751
    Daily change: 9.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.103%
    Daily Open: 0.8742
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8805
    Daily SMA50: 0.8856
    Daily SMA100: 0.8884
    Daily SMA200: 0.8837
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.8746
    Daily Low: 0.8692
    Weekly High: 0.8774
    Weekly Low: 0.869
    Monthly High: 0.8942
    Monthly Low: 0.8722
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8725
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8712
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8707
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8672
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8653
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8761
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.878
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8815  

AUD/USD's recent recovery from 0.7024 to 0.7296 was capped as the dollar picks up investors again based on interest differentials following the FOMC s

AUD/USD has continued to chip away at the downside within the descending channel as risk sentiment fades away in illiquid North American markets. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7195 from a high of 0.7238 and a low of 0.7187.AUD/USD's recent recovery from 0.7024 to 0.7296 was capped as the dollar picks up investors again based on interest differentials following the FOMC statement and ongoing concerns over global growth. Today, the Aussie if tracking the weakness in European bourses and now Wall Street with the down more than 400 points as a stronger dollar is hurting sales of the multinationals with the DXY now through the midpoint of the 97 handle.  Analysts at Rabobank argued that bullish bets on the US dollar have increased to the highest level so far this year. "USD net long positions edged higher to 40,282 in the week ending November 6 - before the US mid-term elections resulted in the Democrats regaining control of the House and the Republicans tightening their grip on the Senate."Trade wars support the greenback, weighing on AUD/USDApart from the interest rate differentials, the analysts explained that the USD is also supported by prevailing concerns about trade war between the US and China: In his latest tweet President Trump reiterated that the US cannot tolerate substantial trade deficits with other countries, including European allies:  “Massive amounts of money spent on protecting other countries, and we get nothing but Trade Deficits and Losses. It is time that these very rich countries either pay the United States for its great military protection, or protect themselves...and Trade must be made FREE and FAIR!"AUD/USD levelsAUD/USD the daily RSI remains biased lower with the pair now back in the cloud. Monthly RSI is biased up though with the price above a slew of daily MAs which should mean that the downside is relatively limited in the near term. A break below 0.7021 targets the early Feb '16 low (0.6973) and Jan '16 low (0.6827) levels again. The September and August monthly highs of 0.7315 and 0.7453 are key upside targets.

After spending the Asian session in a tight range near 129, the EUR/JPY lost more than 100 pips on Monday and fell to its lowest level of the month at

Weak market sentiment helps JPY gather strength on Monday.Italy's budget crisis keep investors away from the euro.After spending the Asian session in a tight range near 129, the EUR/JPY lost more than 100 pips on Monday and fell to its lowest level of the month at 127.82. As of writing, the pair was trading at 127.95, losing 0.7% on a daily basis. The uncertainty surrounding the potential negative impact of the EU's response to Italy's 2019 budget proposal on the euro area economy continues to weigh on the shared currency. Earlier today, Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio argued that the only way to respect EU parameters was to make a “suicidal budget law” that would cause a recession. Additionally, while speaking at an event in Germany,  “Extending the macro-prudential framework to the asset management sector and developing policy tools to address emerging risks will be important. Italy is the main prominent case at the moment,” ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said. Commenting on the effect of Italian politics on the shared currency, "Italy may be part of the EU but its budget dispute it treating the EURUSD like the lira of old.  The EURUSD is down 8.2% against the dollar since the Italian election on March 4th and 3.6% since the formation of the current League/5 Star government," Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FXStreet, said. On the other hand, the risk-off mood as reflected by the dismal performance of global equity indexes on Monday boosts the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY and forced the pair to extend its fall.Technical outlookThe pair could face the first technical support at 127.80 (daily low) ahead of 127.25 (Oct. 29 low) and 126.60 (Oct. 26 low). On the upside, resistances align at 129.20 (daily high), 130.00 (psychological level) and 130.50 (Oct. 12 high).

Analysts at ABN Amro explained that they have pushed back our forecast for the first ECB rate hike. Key Quotes: "We have changed our forecast for th

Analysts at ABN Amro explained that they have pushed back our forecast for the first ECB rate hike.Key Quotes:"We have changed our forecast for the first ECB rate hike to March 2020 from December 2019 previously. We expect a 10bp rate hike in March 2020 and a second one in September 2020 (with all policy rates moving in synch). The main factor behind the change is the deterioration in the economic outlook." "Recent economic data have been weak and the  environment for eurozone exports will remain challenging given slowing growth in emerging markets." "In addition, the US economy is likely to slow, especially in the second half of next year. Weaker export growth will also hamper investment. Although Q3 economic growth was likely depressed by transient effects in the car industry, we think the slowdown also reflects a broader trend. So in our view, the ECB will lower its economic projections."
 

EUR/USD 4-hour chart Main trend:             Bearish Resistance 1:   1.1300 figure Resistance 2:   1.1350 figure Resistance 3:   1.1400 figure Re

EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average.EUR/USD broke below the key 1.1300 figure earlier in the day. The main bias keeps a bearish bias as the RSI and Stochastic indicators are in oversold condition while the MACD is negative.EUR/USD has found some short-term support near 1.1240 as the London session came to an end.  All suggesting that a test of 1.1300 can be on the cards.
EUR/USD 4-hour chartMain trend:             Bearish Resistance 1:   1.1300 figure
Resistance 2:   1.1350 figure
Resistance 3:   1.1400 figure
Resistance 4:   1.1430 October 9 low
Resistance 5:   1.1470 Asian high (Nov.7)  Support 1:   1.1240 current November 12 low
Support 2:   1.1200 figure
Support 3:   1.1104 June 6, 2017 low
Additional key levels at a glance:EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1255
    Daily change: -83 pips
    Daily change: -0.732%
    Daily Open: 1.1338
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.154
    Daily SMA100: 1.1579
    Daily SMA200: 1.1842
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1369
    Daily Low: 1.1316
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1337
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1349
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1313
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1288
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.126
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1366
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1394
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1419  

Member of the ECB's Executive Board, Sabine Lautenschläger, is out on the wires, via Reuters, providing the key quotes found below. ‘very much in f

Member of the ECB's Executive Board, Sabine Lautenschläger, is out on the wires, via Reuters, providing the key quotes found below. ‘very much in favour’ of ending Asset Purchase Programme (APP). Favours designing reinvestments in flexible way, ‘not too long’.

After advancing to its highest level in more than a month at 114.20 during the early trading hours of the European session, the USD/JPY reversed its c

JPY finds demand as a safe-haven in NA session.Nasdaq loses nearly 3% on Monday.Broad-based USD strength limits losses for the time being.After advancing to its highest level in more than a month at 114.20 during the early trading hours of the European session, the USD/JPY reversed its course as the risk aversion boosted the demand for traditional safe-havens such as the JPY. With Wall Street falling sharply in the NA session, the pair extended its fall and was last seen trading at 113.70, losing 0.1% on a daily basis. The  USD strength dictated the pair's price action in the first half of the day with the US Dollar Index surging to its highest level in 17 months at 97.58. Although there were no fundamental catalysts related to the greenback directly, the fact that both the euro and the British pound stayed under pressure amid ongoing political jitters helped the dollar outperform its peers.  However, with the risk sentiment deteriorating globally, the pair turned south and moved into the negative territory. Despite the low trading volume on Veterans Day holiday, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day lower. Dragged lower by a more than 3% drop witnessed in the technology sector, the Nasdaq Composite lost as much as 2.9% in the session and was last seen down 2.6% on a daily basis. Additionally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were losing 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, as of writing. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from Japan on Thursday and the risk perception is likely to remain as the primary driver of the pair's price action.Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the initial support at 113.55 (Nov. 8 low) ahead of 112.90 (20-DMA/50-DMA) and 112 (psychological level/100-DMA). On the upside, resistances are located at 114.20 (daily high), 114.55 (Oct. 3 high) and 115.00 (psychological level).

Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe, Standard Chartered Bank explained that Brexit headlines hint at an imminent deal, but even if – a big ‘if’ - Pri

Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe, Standard Chartered Bank explained that Brexit headlines hint at an imminent deal, but even if – a big ‘if’ - Prime Minister (PM) May can persuade her cabinet and win over sceptical EU leaders, the parliamentary vote remains uncertain.Key Quotes:"Pro-Leave members of parliament (MPs), pro-Remain MPs, Northern Ireland unionists (DUP) and the opposition all have reasons for voting down the deal. The main holdup to agreeing a deal has been the ‘backstop’. PM May proposes that, until/unless there is a final agreement on the UK’s relations with the EU that takes care of the Irish border issue, the UK will stay in a customs union with the EU once the post-Brexit transition period ends. But this would make UK bilateral trade deals with other countries difficult. Some UK ministers want a time limit, which the EU has so far rejected. A separate backstop for Northern Ireland (NI) with regulatory checks between NI and the rest of the UK is opposed by the DUP. The all-UK customs-union backstop is likely to come with strings attached, with the EU requiring a level playing field on rules relating to the environment, labour, tax and on state support for industry, with appropriate enforcement mechanisms. In addition, the EU is likely to press for other advantages, for example, access to UK fishing waters. PM May’s aim to achieve a deal and parliamentary ratification before Christmas looks challenging, given unresolved issues and splits within the government. We think that parliament’s ‘meaningful vote’ may be delayed until the new year and may not pass at the first attempt – though it could subsequently be re-submitted. There is growing awareness of the damage that would be done by a no-deal outcome. There is also more vocal opposition to Brexit; a no deal threat – or reality – could be used to try to push through a second referendum. We see this as a low possibility, but not negligible."
 

It is also being reported that Barnier will tell the EU27 that a Brexit agreement is still not reached PM May's ambition was to have a full draft with

GBP/USD has been shunted back to the downside as any positive tone that may find a way through the entanglement of negativty out there for Brexit are superseded by a fresh invalidating headline which sends the pound right back into its place. The news that the European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had said earlier that the main elements of the Brexit treat text were ready has been treated with scepticism.It is also being reported that Barnier will tell the EU27 that a Brexit agreement is still not reached PM May's ambition was to have a full draft withdrawal text ready early this week but the decision is likely to be postponed further, as May's proposal is under fire. Volumes are also thinner in North America today on account of Veteran's Day which is leaving bulls very exposed due to the lack of liquidity nor impetus to buy sterling. GBP/USD had already dropped to lowest level since Nov 1 on Brexit angst and will continue to suffer on uncertainties looking to 1.2827 recent lows.  "The development during the past week supports our view that the real test is probably not reaching an agreement with the EU, but to get the deal through the House of Commons. Brexit hardliners, the DUP, moderate pro-EU Conservatives and Labour are all threatening to vote it down. Our base case is still that the EU and the UK will reach an agreement in December but that negotiation may slip into early January. We still expect a decent Brexit (75% probability) but think one should not rule out a 'no deal' Brexit (15% probability)," analysts at Danske Bank argued.Eyes on UK economy this weekMeanwhile, the UK economy is performing reasonably well but the pound and economy will be out and under scrutiny when we see UK wages, inflation and retail sales. Should the data come in strong, it will bring back the prospects for another BoE rate hike, but the Brexit uncertainties will continue to pressure for the meantime. "Currently, the market struggles to see the next BoE rate rise within a year. On balance we see GBP staying reasonably bid on temporary Brexit optimism, but larger gains look to be had against the EUR rather than the USD," analysts at ING Bank explained.GBP/USD levelsGBP/USD bear targets include 1.2810 and 1.2697 (Oct 30 low) which come into scope as the opposition to the tories will call for another election if Tory ministers vote down whatever deal PM May finally puts to Parliament. Below 1.2662, analysts at Commerzbank argued that this would trigger further weakness to the 61.8% retracement of the move 2016-2018 and June 2017 low at 1.2593/89. On the upside, bulls need to get through 1.3025 ahead of the top of the range at 1.3260/1.3363. 

  GBP/USD 4-hour chart Main trend:                      Bullish Resistance 1:                  1.2900 figure Resistance 2:                  1.2921

GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend above the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.GBP/USD is back below the 1.2900 figure as Barnier said that Brexit agreement is still not reached. Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias. Resistances to the upside are seen near 1.2900, 1.2957 (July 19 low, key level) and 1.3000 figure while supports are seen near 1.2854 October 29 and 1.2800 figure. 
GBP/USD 4-hour chartMain trend:                      Bullish Resistance 1:                  1.2900 figure
Resistance 2:                  1.2921 October 4 low
Resistance 3:                  1.2957 July 19 low, key level
Resistance 4:                  1.3000 figure Support 1:                      1.2854 October 29 low
Support 2:                      1.2800 figure
Support 3:                      1.2755 demand level  
Additional key levels at a glance:GBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2863
    Daily change: -1.1e+2 pips
    Daily change: -0.817%
    Daily Open: 1.2969
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2978
    Daily SMA50: 1.3032
    Daily SMA100: 1.3034
    Daily SMA200: 1.3403
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3073
    Daily Low: 1.2958
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3002
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3029
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2928
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2886
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2813
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3042
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3115
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3156  

After recording its longest losing streak on Friday and slumping to its lowest level in 9-months at $59.24, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate star

Saudi Arabia hints at additional output cuts.OPEC's Barkindo expects the oil market to be in balance in Q4.After recording its longest losing streak on Friday and slumping to its lowest level in 9-months at $59.24, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate started the day with a bullish gap and extended its upward correction to a daily high of $61.25. As of writing, the barrel of WTI was trading at $60.90, adding 1.75%, or a little over $1, on the day. Earlier today, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that OPEC and its allies agreed that technical analysis revealed a need to cut oil supply next year by around 1 million barrels per day from October levels. Additionally, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told reporters that they were expecting the oil market to be in balance in the last quarter of the year and added that the demand was forecasted to be below 1.5-1.6 million barrels per day in 2019. Commenting on today's price action, "While the oil price has opened on a solid footing today, the knee-jerk reaction to the meeting is likely to subside in the short term until investors take solace in visible signs of a reduction in supply and OPEC lives up to the rhetoric of further supply cuts," Aneeka Gupta, associate director at exchange-traded fund provider WisdomTree, told Reuters on Monday. Later this week, investors will be watching OPEC's and the IEA's monthly reports on the outlook for global oil supply and demand later this week as well as the API's and the EIA's weekly stock reports.Technical levels to considerThe initial resistance aligns at $61.25 (daily high) ahead of $62.40 (Nov. 8 high) and $63.30 (Nov. 6 high). On the downside, supports could be seen at $60 (psychological level), $59.20 (Nov. 9 low) and $58.20 (Feb. 14 low).

EUR/GBP is now correcting higher again to 0.8741, off the recent lows at 0.8709 as cable is faded through the 10-hr SMA despite the news that the Euro

EUR/GBP's correction from recent lows down at 0.8691 to 0.8774 has been sold into again and the price now oscillates between 0.8709 and 0.8738.EUR/GBP started out in Asia with a bullish gap with sterling plunging due to the weekend's negative Brexit news.EUR/GBP is now correcting higher again to 0.8741, off the recent lows at 0.8709 as cable is faded through the 10-hr SMA despite the news that the European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had said earlier that the main elements of the Brexit treat text were ready which is being treated with scepticism and is also being reported that he will tell EU27 that a Brexit agreement still not reached. Instead, it is thin out there in North America today on account of Veteran's Day and sterling bulls can't find the liquidity where too many negatives surrounding the prospects for Brexit are taking their toll whereby Theresa May had been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal this week and has been publicly warned by a Brexiteer cabinet minister that she will fail to have any deal approved by the cabinet unless it is "going to deliver on the referendum result". This follows the weekend's report in The Sunday Times that four pro-EU ministers may follow Transport Minister Jo Johnson who resigned last week expressing his discontent over Brexittalks. May is losing the battle to find sufficient support for a deal with the EU, which needs to be fully agreed in parliament.  However, there is a renewed concern over Italy whereby the Commission has given Rome until Tuesday this week to present a new budget and could start disciplinary steps against Rome later this month. "Italy may be part of the EU but its budget dispute it treating the EURUSD like the lira of old. The EURUSD is down 8.2% against the dollar since Italian election on March 4th and 3.6% since the formation of the current League/5 Star government," Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet highlighted.EUR/GBP levelsAnalysts at Commerzbank explained that EUR/GBP is weighing on BUT has not registered a close below the 0.8697 May low. "The move lower has not been confirmed by the daily RSI either and we would allow for a small rebound ahead of further losses. Please note we have conflicting signals here and would remain cautious. Beyond this we look for the market to remain on the defensive following the reaction lower last week from cloud resistance at 0.8894/0.8937. Failure at 0.8697 on a closing basis would target the 0.8620 2018 low."  

A spokesman for the UK government recently crossed the wires saying that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's comments about main element

A spokesman for the UK government recently crossed the wires saying that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's comments about main elements of Brexit treat text being ready ‘should be treated with scepticism’, as reported by Reuters.

Gold slide further and reached a fresh daily low at $1,202/oz the lowest level in four weeks. The yellow metal is falling for the seventh-day in-a-row

Gold remains under pressure, trading near $1,200/oz. Wall Street falls sharply and US Dollar consolidates gains.  Gold slide further and reached a fresh daily low at $1,202/oz the lowest level in four weeks. The yellow metal is falling for the seventh-day in-a-row. A week ago was testing the key resistance area seen around $1,235 and now appears to be headed for a test of $1,200, making a significant reversal.  A stronger US dollar across the board and a negative risk sentiment pushed gold prices further to the downside on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains above 97.00 and rose above 97.30, reaching the highest level in 17 months. In Wall Street, the Dow Jones was falling more than 1.30% and the Nasdaq 2.35%.  Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations continue to be a key driver for the greenback. A rate hike in December is expected and between two and four rate hikes in 2019. XAU/USD Levels to watch To the downside, support levels might be seen at $1,200 (psychological), $1,192 and $1,180 (Sep low). On the upside, the immediate resistance could be located at $1,206, $1,211 and $1,218. 

USD/CAD 4-hour chart Main trend:                Bullish Resistance 1:            1.3214 November 9 high Resistance 2:            1.3300 figure Res

USD/CAD is trading in a bull trend above its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).USD/CAD are working at keeping the market near the 1.3200 level. The momentum is bullish and the next objective is to retake 1.3214 (November 9 high) to go to 1.3300 figure. Alternatively, failures below 1.3214 can lead to a pullback down to 1.3161 (October 26 high).  USD/CAD 4-hour chartMain trend:                Bullish Resistance 1:            1.3214 November 9 high
Resistance 2:            1.3300 figure
Resistance 3:            1.3400 figure Support 1:            1.3200 figure
Support 2:            1.3161 October 26 high
Support 3:            1.3108, September 7 low
Support 4:            1.3083 September 27 swing high
Support 5:            1.3053 October 15 high
Support 6:            1.3000 figure
Support 7:            1.2950-59 multi-month key level and August 7 low  Additional key levels at a glance:USD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3199
    Daily change: -5.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0379%
    Daily Open: 1.3204
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3093
    Daily SMA50: 1.3037
    Daily SMA100: 1.3071
    Daily SMA200: 1.2946
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3233
    Daily Low: 1.3138
    Weekly High: 1.3233
    Weekly Low: 1.3056
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3197
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3174
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.315
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3096
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3054
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3245
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3287
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3341  

The prospects on the pair appear constructive in the short-term, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of test

The prospects on the pair appear constructive in the short-term, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.Key Quotes24-hour view: “Instead of testing the 0.6715 support (as expected last Friday), NZD traded in a quiet manner between 0.6728 and 0.6767. The underlying tone still appears to be soft and we continue to see chance for 0.6715 to be tested. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected (next support is at 0.6690). Resistance is at 0.6750 followed by 0.6775”. Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to last Wednesday (07 Nov, 0.6740) update. As highlighted, “further NZD strength is not ruled out but 0.6850 is likely out of reach”. After last Friday’s soft daily closing (NY close of 0.6737, -0.26%), it appears that NZD is close to making a short-term top. However, confirmation is only upon a move below the ‘key support’ at 0.6690 (level was previously at 0.6670)”.

DXY daily chart                       Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Last Price: 97.32     Daily change: 43 pips     Daily change: 0.

The upbeat momentum around the greenback remain unabated for yet another session and is now pushing DXY to the 97.60 region, or fresh YTD peaks.The continuation of the bull run should meet the next resistance of note at 97.87, where coincide a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop and June’s 2017 top.In addition, the constructive stance in the greenback should remain unchanged as long as July’s low at 93.71 holds.DXY daily chart                      Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Last Price: 97.32
    Daily change: 43 pips
    Daily change: 0.444%
    Daily Open: 96.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.24
    Daily SMA50: 95.51
    Daily SMA100: 95.26
    Daily SMA200: 93.36
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.01
    Daily Low: 96.63
    Weekly High: 97.01
    Weekly Low: 95.68
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.86
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.78
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.68
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.46
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.3
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.06
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.22
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.44  

"Bullish bets on the US dollar increased to the highest level so far this year," note Rabobank analysts. Key quotes "USD net long positions edged hi

"Bullish bets on the US dollar increased to the highest level so far this year," note Rabobank analysts.Key quotes"USD net long positions edged higher to 40,282 in the week ending November 6 - before the US mid-term elections resulted in the Democrats regaining control of the House and the Republicans tightening their grip on the Senate. While initially the dollar weakened on the back of the prospects of a political gridlock in Congress, it proved short-lived." "The greenback ended last week on a firm footing after the Fed reminded the markets that it intends to raise interest rates further in December and more hikes are likely in 2019 based on the dot plot. Apart from the interest rate differentials, the USD is also supported by prevailing concerns about trade war between the US and China." "In his latest tweet President Trump reiterated that the US cannot tolerate substantial trade deficits with other countries, including European allies: “Massive amounts of money spent on protecting other countries, and we get nothing but Trade Deficits and Losses. It is time that these very rich countries either pay the United States for its great military protection, or protect themselves...and Trade must be made FREE and FAIR!"

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has recently crossed the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below. Expects the Italian government to tak

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has recently crossed the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below. Expects the Italian government to take ‘necessary actions’. Quite optimistic there will be a good solution on the Italian budget. Worst option for UK is hard Brexit. Doing all we can to get a Brexit deal.

The AUD/USD, which erased the majority of its weekly gains on Thursday and Friday, started the week under pressure and dropped to its lowest level in

USD strength dominates FX markets on Monday.AUD/USD falls to fresh weekly low below 0.72.Trading action is likely to stay subdued in the second half of the day.The AUD/USD, which erased the majority of its weekly gains on Thursday and Friday, started the week under pressure and dropped to its lowest level in a week at 0.7185 on Monday. With the trading volume thinning out amid the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S., the pair staged a technical correction and was last seen moving sideways a little above the 0.72 handle, where it was still down 0.25% on a daily basis. Earlier today, the selling pressure witnessed on the euro and the British pound ramped up the demand for the greenback and the US Dollar Index rose to its highest level of the year at 97.58 to weigh on the pair. At the moment, the index is up 0.45% on the day at 97.35. On the other hand, a recovery seen in commodities led by crude oil's strong rebound on Monday helps commodity-sensitive currencies such as the CAD and the AUD show some resilience against the greenback. During the Asian session on Tuesday, the National Bank of Australia is going to publish its Business Sentiment report.Technical levels to consider0.7200 (psychological level) aligns as the first technical support for the pair ahead of 0.7160 (50-DMA/20-DMA) and 0.7090 (Oct. 18 low). On the upside, resistances are located at 0.7230 (100-DMA), 0.7270 (Nov. 9 high) and 0.7300 (Nov. 8/Nov. 7 high).

Senior Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph suggested the pair’s bullish outlook is in place as long as the 19.6855/19.5769 band underpins. Key Quotes

Senior Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph suggested the pair’s bullish outlook is in place as long as the 19.6855/19.5769 band underpins.Key QuotesUSD/MXN’s advance is ongoing with it expected to rise above the October high at 20.4720, a rise above which will have the 2017-18 resistance line at 20.6367 and also the June peak at 20.9612 in its sights”. “We will retain our once again overall bullish forecast while the September high and the current November low at 19.6855/19.5769 underpin on a daily chart closing basis”. “Were this support area to unexpectedly be slipped through, the 55- and 200-day moving averages at 19.2441/19.1085 would be in focus”.

S&P500 daily chart Main trend:               Bullish   Resistance 1:           2,766.00 November 2 high Resistance 2:           2,800.00 figure Res

The S&P500 is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average.The market found resistance near the 2,800.00 figure as well as the 50 and 100 SMA. Bulls seem unable to hold the market above 2,766.00. This would likely see the S&P500 pullback down to 2,729.50 (October 12 low). S&P500 daily chartMain trend:               Bullish
 
Resistance 1:           2,766.00 November 2 high
Resistance 2:           2,800.00 figure
Resistance 3:           2,834.25 October 10 low
Resistance 4:           2,853.00 August 9 low Support 1:                2,729.50 October 12 low
Support 2:                2,718.75 April 17 high
Support 3:                2,700.00 figure
Support 4:                2,729.50 October 12 low.
Support 5:                2,647.25 March 2 low
Support 6:                2,600.00 figure
Support 7:                2,530.75, 2018 low  Additional key levels at a glance:SP 500 Overview:
    Last Price: 2759
    Daily change: -1.9e+3 pips
    Daily change: -0.693%
    Daily Open: 2778.25
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2740.49
    Daily SMA50: 2826.7
    Daily SMA100: 2832.43
    Daily SMA200: 2767.97
Levels:
    Daily High: 2778.25
    Daily Low: 2778.25
    Weekly High: 2818.75
    Weekly Low: 2713.5
    Monthly High: 2939.5
    Monthly Low: 2604.5
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2778.25
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2778.25
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2778.25  

After recording fresh 2018 peaks near 97.60 earlier in the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY) met some sellers and is now meandering the 97.40 region. US

The up move in DXY met resistance near 97.60 on Monday.Brexit and Italy keep driving the markets’ sentiment today.US CPI, Retail Sales, Powell next of relevance ahead in the week.After recording fresh 2018 peaks near 97.60 earlier in the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY) met some sellers and is now meandering the 97.40 region.US Dollar Index stays bid above 97.00The rally in the greenback remains well and sound for yet another week. So far, the index closed with gains in 7 out of the last 8 weeks following September’s low in the 94.80 region and is now entering the fifth consecutive week with gains. The hawkish tone from Chief Powell in past weeks, the likely continuation of the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in the next months, robust US data releases and healthy prospects on the US economy have all combined with persistent jitters around Brexit and Italian politics, all propping up the better sentiment in the buck and lending oxygen to the index. Looking ahead, the Dollar should remain in the limelight this week, as US inflation figures tracked by the CPI, Retail Sales for the month of October and the speech by Chief J.Powell are all due in the upcoming days.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is gaining 0.46% at 97.34 and a breakout of 97.58 (2018 high Nov.12) would open the door to 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017). On the flip side, the next support emerges at 96.67 (10-day SMA) followed by 96.28 (21-day SMA) and finally 95.68 (low Nov.7).

USD/JPY 4-hour chart Main trend:               Bullish Resistance 1:    114.00 figure Resistance 2:    114.57 October high Resistance 3:    115.00

USD/JPY is trading in a bull trend above the 200-period simple on the 4-hour chart.USD/JPY rejected the 114.00 level and is now consolidating the recent advances below the level. Technical indicators are also decelerating suggesting that a pullback down to 11.55 can be on the cards. USD/JPY 4-hour chartMain trend:               Bullish Resistance 1:    114.00 figure
Resistance 2:    114.57 October high
Resistance 3:    115.00 figure
Support 1:    113.55 October 2 low
Support 2:    113.00 figure
Support 3:    112.55 September 27 low
Support 4:    112.00-112.17 zone, figure and August 1 swing high
Support 5:    111.00 figure
Support 6:    110.35 September Low
Support 7:    109.75 August low 
Additional key levels at a glance:
USD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.78
    Daily change: -1.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.00879%
    Daily Open: 113.79
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.78
    Daily SMA50: 112.58
    Daily SMA100: 111.87
    Daily SMA200: 110.04
Levels:
    Daily High: 114.1
    Daily Low: 113.64
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.82
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.92
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.59
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 113.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 113.13
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 114.05
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.3
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.51  

After slumping to the lowest level of November at 1.2825 earlier today, the GBP/USD pair recovered strongly in the last hour and was last seen trading

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Barnier says main elements of Brexit treat text are ready.British pound gathers strength on this news.US Dollar Index continues to float above 97.After slumping to the lowest level of November at 1.2825 earlier today, the GBP/USD pair recovered strongly in the last hour and was last seen trading at 1.2915, still 50 pips below last week's closing level. Reports of more British politicians voicing their objection to Prime Minister May's Brexit agreement and threatening to quit over the weekend forced the pair to start the week with a bearish gap. A former UK cabinet minister, Justine Greening, told reporters on Monday that the Brexit deal would not pass in the Parliament and suggested that the UK should have a referendum with three choices i.e. current deal, leave on WTO rules, or stay in the EU. However, according to a recently published article in The Financial Times, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told ministers from the EU’s remaining 27 member states that the main elements of an exit treaty text were ready to present to the UK cabinet on Tuesday, and helped the British pound retrace a large portion of its daily drop.Barnier says Brexit treaty text almost ready – FT.On the other hand, the US Dollar Index, which rallied to its highest level of the year of the year at 97.58 earlier today, stays in the positive territory and makes it difficult for the pair to extend its rebound. In the absence of macroeconomic data releases from the U.S., Brexit headlines are likely to drive the pair's price action in the remainder of the day. Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the initial resistance at 1.3000 (psychological level/100-DMA) ahead of 1.3040 (50-DMA) and 1.3115 (Nov. 6 high). On the downside, supports are located at 1.2900 (psychological level), 1.2825 (daily low) and 1.2775 (Oct. 26 low).

   •  The British Pound got a strong boost after Barnier's optimistic Brexit comments and helped the cross to stage a solid rebound from 50% Fibo. ret

   •  The British Pound got a strong boost after Barnier's optimistic Brexit comments and helped the cross to stage a solid rebound from 50% Fibo. retracement level of the 142.77-149.49 recent upsurge.    •  Despite a goodish intraday recovery of over 100-pips, the cross remained well below Asian session swing high level of 147.58 and the very important 200-day/hourly SMA.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have just started rebounding from oversold conditions and hence, the sudden pickup could be solely attributed to some short-covering.   •  However, a sustained move beyond the mentioned moving average might negate the bearish bias and assist the cross to build on the recovery move from the 146.00 neighborhood.
 GBP/JPY 1-hourly chart

EUR/GBP 4-hour chart Main Trend:            Bearish Resistance 1:              0.8752 October 16 low Resistance 2:              0.8800 figure Resi

EUR/GBP is trading in a bear trend below its 200-period simple moving average (SMA).EUR/GBP is down to 0.8722 support as GBP is gaining strength. In fact, Barnier (The European Union chief Brexit negotiator) said that that the main elements of Brexit treaty are ready, helping Sterling.The main trend remains in place with 0.8700 and 0.8665 as the next levels of support. EUR/GBP 4-hour chartMain Trend:            Bearish Resistance 1:              0.8752 October 16 low
Resistance 2:              0.8800 figure
Resistance 3:              0.8847 September 20 low 
Resistance 4:              0.8876 September 11 low Support 1:              0.8722 October low
Support 2:              0.8700 figure
Support 3:              0.8665 March 22 low
Support 4:              0.8600 figure
Additional key levels at a glance:EUR/GBP Overview:
    Last Price: 0.8722
    Daily change: -20 pips
    Daily change: -0.229%
    Daily Open: 0.8742
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8805
    Daily SMA50: 0.8856
    Daily SMA100: 0.8884
    Daily SMA200: 0.8837
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.8746
    Daily Low: 0.8692
    Weekly High: 0.8774
    Weekly Low: 0.869
    Monthly High: 0.8942
    Monthly Low: 0.8722
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8725
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8712
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8707
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8672
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8653
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8761
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.878
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8815  

FX Strategists at UOB Group see the outlook on the Aussie Dollar as neutral for the time being, while a test of levels beyond the 0.7300 handle is not

FX Strategists at UOB Group see the outlook on the Aussie Dollar as neutral for the time being, while a test of levels beyond the 0.7300 handle is not ruled out.Key Quotes24-hour view: “Expectation for AUD to trade sideways was wrong as it dropped quickly to a low of 0.7220. Despite the drop, downward momentum has not improved by all that much. That said, AUD could test the 0.7200 support first before recovering (the next support at 0.7175 is not expected to come into the picture). Resistance is at 0.7245 followed by 0.7270”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Despite overall positive indications, AUD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. It touched a high of 0.7303 last Thursday (08 Nov) but has since eased off. For now, we continue to see chance for AUD to test the strong 0.7315 resistance. However, in order to maintain the current momentum, AUD has to move higher soon (say within this week) as a prolonged consolidation would quickly diminish the prospect for further AUD strength. Conversely, a break of the 0.7150 ‘key support’ (no change in level) would suggest that 0.7303 is a short-term top”.

   •  The USD pauses after rising to over 17-month tops and prompt some profit-taking.    •  Risk-off mood underpins JPY’s safe-haven status and colla

   •  The USD pauses after rising to over 17-month tops and prompt some profit-taking.
   •  Risk-off mood underpins JPY’s safe-haven status and collaborates to the intraday slide.
The USD/JPY pair extended its retracement slide from fresh one-month tops and dropped to fresh session low during the early North-American session.  The pair regained positive traction at the start of a new trading week and build on its positive momentum further beyond the 114.00 handle on the back of a strong follow-through US Dollar upsurge. With the USD bulls taking some breather near 17-month lows, the pair started correcting from fresh one-month tops and has now retreated nearly 50-pips from an intraday high level of 114.21. A combination of factors - US-China trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty and Italian budgetary concerns, dented investors’ appetite for the riskier asset. The risk-off mood was evident from the prevalent bearish tone around equity markets, which was seen underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and eventually turned out to be one of the key factors prompting some profit-taking at higher levels.  The downside, however, remained cushioned amid firming expectations for a gradual Fed monetary policy tightening cycle, even beyond 2018, and hence, it would be prudent to wait for a follow-through selling before confirming that the pair might have topped out in the near-term.Technical outlookValeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own American Chief Analyst explains: “The 4 hours chart shows that the pair continues trading well above it's 100 and 200 SMA, with both gaining ground just modestly, some 100 pips below the current level. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart ease within positive levels, the Momentum at fresh daily lows and the RSI barely easing from overbought territory, this last limiting the downside potential.” “Bulls and bears are now battling for dominance. Should the pair lose the 113.85, the immediate support, bears will take control and the pair could extend its retracement then, down to 113.40. Above the mentioned high, on the other hand, the pair has room to extend its advance up to 114.54, the October monthly high,” she added further.
 

  GBP/USD 4-hour chart Main trend:                      Bullish Resistance 1:                  1.2957 July 19 low, key level Resistance 2:        

GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend above the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. Barnier said that the Brexit treaty is almost ready, helping GBP to the upside.GBP/USD broke below 1.2854 earlier in the day but the market has now regained some ground as Cable is now back above the 1.2900 figure. Bulls will try to keep GBP/USD above 1.2900 and 1.2850. As the market is oversold, bulls might have the advantage in the short-term. Resistances to the upside are seen near 1.2957 (July 19 low, key level) and 1.3000 figure.  
GBP/USD 4-hour chartMain trend:                      Bullish Resistance 1:                  1.2957 July 19 low, key level
Resistance 2:                  1.3000 figure
Resistance 3:                  1.3050 figure
Resistance 4:                  1.3100 figure
Resistance 5:                  1.3150 figure Support 1:                      1.2921 October 4 low
Support 2:                      1.2900 figure
Support 3:                      1.2854 October 29  
Additional key levels at a glance:GBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.292
    Daily change: -49 pips
    Daily change: -0.378%
    Daily Open: 1.2969
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2978
    Daily SMA50: 1.3032
    Daily SMA100: 1.3034
    Daily SMA200: 1.3403
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3073
    Daily Low: 1.2958
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3002
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3029
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2928
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2886
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2813
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3042
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3115
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3156  

Despite the broad-based USD strength, the USD/CAD pair struggled to extend its rally on Monday as recovering crude oil prices helped the commodity-sen

Crude oil stages a strong rebound on Monday.US Dollar Index looks to record its highest daily close of the year.Despite the broad-based USD strength, the USD/CAD pair struggled to extend its rally on Monday as recovering crude oil prices helped the commodity-sensitive loonie stay resilient against its rivals. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 1.3205. Earlier in the day, the dollar gathered momentum as investors continued to stay away from major European currencies. After opening the week modestly higher, the US Dollar Index advanced to its highest level since June of 2017 at 97.58 before retracing a portion of its daily upside. At the moment, the index is up 0.37% on the day at 97.26. On the other hand, after losing $3 last week, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate started to recover its losses on Monday to help the commodity-related loonie find demand. Reports of Saudi Arabia planning to reduce its oil output to limit crude oil's losses helped the WTI. As of writing, the barrel of WTI was trading at $61, adding 1.8% on a daily basis. With no macroeconomic data releases in the remainder of the day, the pair's trading action is likely to remain subdued.Technical levels to considerOn the upside, the initial resistance for the pair aligns at 1.3225 (Sep. 6 high) ahead of 1.3290 (Jul. 19 high) and 1.3335 (Jun. 21 low). Supports, on the other hand, could be seen at 1.3120 (20-DMA), 1.3045 (100-DMA) and 1.2990 (200-DMA).

The European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that main elements of Brexit treat text are ready in support of Sterling, the Financial

The European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that main elements of Brexit treat text are ready in support of Sterling, the Financial Times reported.

According to a report published on the Financial Times, quoting diplomats briefed on the discussions, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier

According to a report published on the Financial Times, quoting diplomats briefed on the discussions, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told ministers from the EU’s remaining 27 member states that the main elements of an exit treaty text were ready to present to the UK cabinet on Tuesday.  The news prompted some short-covering move around the British Pound, helping the GBP/USD pair to rebound over 100-pips from the early European session low level of 1.2827.
 

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that RBNZ is probably the G10 central bank that still holds the most dovish view on inflation (compared to the outl

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that RBNZ is probably the G10 central bank that still holds the most dovish view on inflation (compared to the outlook) and NZD is currently the most hated G10 currency by non-commercial positions. Key Quotes“This leaves upside risks for the NZD. We continue to favour such a bet against the AUD.”“Given the late-cyclical mindset of markets, we are still looking to re-enter short AUD positions elsewhere also. Despite taking a slight step in the direction of putting more trust in global wage developments, it would still be out of the ordinary to see the RBA moving towards a rate hike in the present commodity environment. Usually the CRB commodity index needs to be up by 10% year on year, before the RBA considers a hike. Currently we are still some way below that.”

In Canada, a relatively quiet week will still provide some valuable information about economic activity in late Q3 and early Q4, according to the rese

In Canada, a relatively quiet week will still provide some valuable information about economic activity in late Q3 and early Q4, according to the research team at National Bank Financial.Key Quotes“If a decline in exports of factory goods is any guide, manufacturing shipments may have retreated for a second consecutive month in September. This should not be overly concerning as these back-to-back drops would come after healthy increases in June (+1.3%) and July (+1.2%).” “In fact, a 0.5% contraction in September would still translate into a healthy 8.5% annualized increase in Q3 as a whole. Information on the state of the housing market in October will also be available with the release of the the Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index® and existing home sales.”

EUR/USD 4-hour chart Main trend:             Bearish Resistance 1:   1.1300 figure Resistance 2:   1.1350 figure Resistance 3:   1.1400 figure Res

EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average.EUR/USD broke below 1.1300 figure and reached levels not seen since June 2017. The main bias remains bearish as the RSI and Stochastic indicators are in oversold condition while the MACD keeps a negative reading. Pullback up can be expected and key resistances to the upside are seen near 1.1300 and 1.1350 level.  A continuation of the down move would see bear targets near 1.1240 current November 12 low and 1.1200 figure. EUR/USD 4-hour chartMain trend:             Bearish Resistance 1:   1.1300 figure
Resistance 2:   1.1350 figure
Resistance 3:   1.1400 figure
Resistance 4:   1.1430 October 9 low
Resistance 5:   1.1470 Asian high (Nov.7)  Support 1:   1.1240 current November 12 low
Support 2:   1.1200 figure
Support 3:   1.1104 June 6, 2017 low
Additional key levels at a glance:EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1269
    Daily change: -69 pips
    Daily change: -0.609%
    Daily Open: 1.1338
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.154
    Daily SMA100: 1.1579
    Daily SMA200: 1.1842
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1369
    Daily Low: 1.1316
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1337
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1349
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1313
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1288
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.126
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1366
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1394
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1419  

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that oil prices have plunged 20% from the highs in early October, and while some has hoped the plunge was temporary

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that oil prices have plunged 20% from the highs in early October, and while some has hoped the plunge was temporary owing to the upcoming US midterms (as eg the POTUS had tweeted about oil prices being too high), oil prices have weakened furthermore after the election.Key Quotes“When we decompose the drivers of oil into a demand component and a supply component using an econometric approach, we find that oil demand has weakened somewhat since this summer. The lion’s share of the recent downdraft must thus be attributed to supply.” “Moreover, the backwardation which was present only a month ago has disappeared and been replaced with contango (suggesting an inventory overhand and/or surprising demand weakness).” “We’ve been arguing for some time that that the US yield curve, the money market curve (ED$), as well as recent underperformance of cyclical equities and of small caps have been consistent with a late-cyclical outlook and weaker global growth.”

Analysts at National Bank Financial point out that in the U.S., the consumer price index could have risen 0.3% m/m in October, boosted by a larger-tha

Analysts at National Bank Financial point out that in the U.S., the consumer price index could have risen 0.3% m/m in October, boosted by a larger-than-usual increase in gasoline prices.Key Quotes“As a result, the year-on-year rate could climb two ticks to 2.5%. The core inflation rate, meanwhile, could have increased 0.2%, allowing the annual rate to remain unchanged at 2.2%.” “In other news, industrial production may have expanded for a fifth consecutive month in October, echoing an expansion of output in the manufacturing sector. A positive contribution is also expected from mining based on the increase in oil rigs operating in the country during the month.” “Still in October, both headline and ex-auto retail sales likely expanded at a healthy clip, in line with rising auto sales and higher gasoline prices in the month. The first clues on the state of the manufacturing sector in November will also be available with the publication of the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys. We’ll also keep an eye on the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.”

After starting the week around 1.0050 and staying quiet during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair gained traction in the early European trading hours

Broad-based greenback strength lifts the pair higher on Monday.US Dollar Index sits comfortably above 97.After starting the week around 1.0050 and staying quiet during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair gained traction in the early European trading hours and rose to its highest level since May of 2017 at 1.0106. Following this upsurge, the pair had gone into a consolidation phase and was last seen trading at 1.0090, adding 0.35% on a daily basis. Although there were no apparent catalysts that could have provided a boost to the greenback on Monday, the ongoing selling pressure surrounding major European currencies such as the euro and the British pound amid political concerns helped the buck find demand. After starting the day with a bullish gap, the US Dollar Index, which measures the USD's value against a basket of six major currencies, pushed higher to a fresh 17-month high at 97.58. At the moment, the index is up 0.47% on the day at 97.36. With American investors enjoying the Veterans Day holiday on Monday, the pair is unlikely to make any sharp fluctuations in the remainder of the day. Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the initial support at 1.000 (parity/20-DMA) ahead of 0.9950 (Nov. 7 low) and 0.9870 (50-DMA/100-DMA). On the upside, resistances align at 1.0100/05 (psychological level/daily high), 1.0145 (Mar. 2, 2017, high) and 1.0170 (Mar. 7, 2017 high). 

   •  Italian budgetary concerns weigh heavily on the shared currency.     •  The ongoing USD upsurge further aggravates the selling pressure.    •  F

   •  Italian budgetary concerns weigh heavily on the shared currency. 
   •  The ongoing USD upsurge further aggravates the selling pressure.
   •  Focus remains on Italy’s revised budget proposal on Tuesday.
The EUR/USD pair remained heavily offered through the mid-European session on Monday, albeit has managed to rebound around 25-30 pips from fresh YTD lows touched earlier today. The pair extended last week's sharp rejection slide from the key 1.1500 psychological mark and remained heavily offered for the third consecutive session amid growing concerns over Italy's budget proposals Comments by Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, saying that the only way to respect EU parameters is to make a suicidal budget law that would bring on a recession pointed to a possible escalation of the standoff between Rome and Brussels. Market worries were evident from a continuously widening of the yield spread between Italian government bonds and the benchmark German bunds, which kept exerting downward pressure on the shared currency. Adding to this, the ongoing US Dollar upsurge to over 17-month tops, supported by firming market expectations that the Fed will continue with its gradual monetary policy tightening cycle even beyond 2018, further aggravated the selling pressure.  The pair tumbled to the lowest level since June 2017, with possibilities of some heavy stops being triggered below the very important 1.1300 horizontal zone accelerating the downward trajectory during the early European trading session.  The bearish pressure now seems to have receded, at least for the time being, as market participants now seemed to await any fresh update, as Italy is expected to submit a revised draft budget plan to the Commission by November 13, i.e. tomorrow. Technical outlookYohay Elam, FXStreet own Analyst writes: “The Confluence Detector shows that the next line to watch is 1.1235, just below the recent low. Further down, 1.1210 awaits close by. The next level is 1.1100, last seen in June 2017.” “1.1300 now turns into a line of resistance. It is followed by 1.1330 that supported the pair in late October. 1.1360 was a temporary support line in early November, and the round 1.1400 level served as support when the EUR/USD traded on the high ground last week,” he added further.
 

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that he is confident of continued OPEC + cooperation. Key quot

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that he is confident of continued OPEC + cooperation.Key quotes:   •  We see a balanced oil market in Q4.
   •  OPEC in touch with Nigeria, Libya on oil output.
   •  Oil demand growth to be below 1.5-1.6 million bpd in 2019.

EUR/JPY daily chart                           EUR/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 128.33     Daily change: -69 pips     Daily change: 

The sell off in the European currency is sponsoring today’s drop in the cross to fresh multi-day lows in the mid-128.00s.Further downside pressure should put October’s low in the 126.60 area back in the radar ahead of YTD lows in the 124.90 zone (August/May lows).Furthermore, the bearish prospect should prevail while below the resistance line off 2018 peaks, today at 132.21.EUR/JPY daily chart                          EUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 128.33
    Daily change: -69 pips
    Daily change: -0.535%
    Daily Open: 129.02
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.85
    Daily SMA50: 129.91
    Daily SMA100: 129.52
    Daily SMA200: 130.24
Levels:
    Daily High: 129.68
    Daily Low: 128.74
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 129.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 129.32
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 128.61
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 128.21
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 127.67
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 129.55
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 130.08
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.49  

Analysts at ANZ explain that the November MPS struck a more upbeat tone, with the RBNZ moving firmly back to a neutral stance with the risk profile ba

Analysts at ANZ explain that the November MPS struck a more upbeat tone, with the RBNZ moving firmly back to a neutral stance with the risk profile balanced, rather than skewed to the downside.Key Quotes“The RBNZ now sees the medium term for non-tradable inflation as more assured, and accordingly, the market has now priced out the possibility of OCR cuts.” “We remain a little more circumspect and are comfortable with our call that the OCR will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, compared with the RBNZ’s projection for eventual increases. That said, looking through potential noise, a considerably stronger labour market starting point suggests that the economy has moved into stretched territory. This makes us also a little more upbeat on the apparent resilience of the economy.” “We have revised up our forecast a little, but a sustained return to the target is not yet a given. Evidence of broad-based inflation pressures remains scant and a number of growth headwinds remain.”

   •  Negative Brexit headlines exert some heavy pressure at the start of a new week.    •  Comments by May’s spokesman prompt some short-covering ami

   •  Negative Brexit headlines exert some heavy pressure at the start of a new week.
   •  Comments by May’s spokesman prompt some short-covering amid oversold conditions.
The GBP/USD pair trimmed a part of its early steep decline and quickly recovered around 50-pips from 1-1/2 week lows touched in the last hour.  The pair stalled its intraday slump and managed to find some support around the 1.2830-25 region after some soothing comments by the UK PM Theresa May's spokesman.  James Slack, briefing the press this Monday, said that the Cabinet has backed PM in moving forward on Brexit and there was nothing to suggest that other ministers are thinking about resigning.  The uptick, however, seemed lacking any strong conviction and might still be categorized as a corrective/technical bounce amid near-term oversold conditions on hourly charts.  Meanwhile, the likelihood of an EU Brexit summit is now pushed to December 13-14, which might continue to fuel uncertainty and eventually keep a lid on any meaningful up-move in the near-term. Elsewhere, the US Dollar build on the post-FOMC upsurge, hitting over 17-month tops on Monday, and did little to ease the bearish pressure, with the incoming Brexit headlines turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on the first day of a new trading week. Technical levels to watchAny subsequent recovery is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 1.2900 handle, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards clearing the 1.2945-50 supply zone.  On the flip side, the 1.2845-40 region now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might accelerate the slide further towards challenging the 1.2800 round figure mark.
 

In view of analysts at ANZ, the kiwi is now a decent way away from its cycle lows, and in many ways that is justified as RBNZ rate cuts are priced out

In view of analysts at ANZ, the kiwi is now a decent way away from its cycle lows, and in many ways that is justified as RBNZ rate cuts are priced out and the curve steepens.Key Quotes“While positioning will have exacerbated the move, extreme shorts have started to be pared back. In fact, kiwi has run into some reasonable resistance up near 68 US cents suggesting the path higher from here will not be an easy one. That said, global forces hold the upper hand and much will hinge on risk appetites.” “Further improvement can’t be ruled out, but there are a number of things that warrant caution, not least the softer global growth picture, tightening liquidity, and the fragile political landscape. Together with weaker export prices and our still wary domestic view, we are happy to retain a bearish medium-term bias for kiwi.”

Analysts at Rabobank list down the key economic events and release for the week ahead. Key Quotes “Tomorrow has German CPI, UK unemployment, Germany

Analysts at Rabobank list down the key economic events and release for the week ahead.Key Quotes“Tomorrow has German CPI, UK unemployment, Germany’s ZEW survey, and the US NFIB survey.” “Wednesday has Japanese GDP and a Chinese data blast of retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment, then German Q3 GDP – which is seen -0.1% q-o-q – and UK CPI, then Eurozone Q3 GDP, expected to be as damp as the weather. We also get US CPI, and hear from the Fed’s Powell overnight.” “Thursday it’s Aussie jobs and UK retail sales, US retail sales, and the Philly Fed survey.” “Friday has Eurozone CPI, and then US industrial production.”  

India Industrial Output above forecasts (4.3%) in September: Actual (4.5%)

India Manufacturing Output remains unchanged at 4.6% in September

India Cumulative Industrial Output: 5.1% (September) vs previous 5.2%

The European Council President Donald Tusk, as quoted by The Sun's political editor in a tweet, was said to have told No.10 that a deadline for a Nove

The European Council President Donald Tusk, as quoted by The Sun's political editor in a tweet, was said to have told No.10 that a deadline for a November summit is this Wednesday night.  The tweet reads: Tusk has told No10 that a deadline for a November summit is this Wednesday night. But it appears the Govt is beginning to give up hope for one. Whitehall source: "I wouldn't get your hopes up".

The Norwegian Krone appears stable following recent inflation figures and balanced positioning, noted Mikael Milhoj, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. K

The Norwegian Krone appears stable following recent inflation figures and balanced positioning, noted Mikael Milhoj, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“Friday’s lower-than-expected inflation data in Norway alongside a drop in oil below USD70/bbl triggered a move higher in EUR/NOK. That said, the inflation details were much better than the prints at first would suggest, which also means the impact on monetary policy should be modest. Indeed, core inflation is now spot on Norges Bank’s forecast”. “In our view, aggregate NOK positioning is more balanced than market perception seems to be. In our view, the remarkably stable EUR/NOK price action lately supports the notion of fairly balanced positioning. This week, the key data release is tomorrow’s Q3 GDP data where we pencil in a disappointment driven by temporary factors”.

The UK PM Theresa May's spokesman, James Slack was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the Cabinet has backed PM in moving forward on Brexi

The UK PM Theresa May's spokesman, James Slack was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the Cabinet has backed PM in moving forward on Brexit and there was nothing to suggest that other ministers are thinking about resigning. Additional quotes:   •  There will be a Cabinet discussion as and when there is something to discuss.
   •  There has been good progress in negotiations. 
   •  There are still substantial issues over the N.Ireland backstop.
   •  Brexit negotiations continued with the EU until 2:45 AM Monday. 
   •  Want to make progress as soon as possible, but must not be at any cost.

The analysis team at HSBC suggests that the USD-JPY will move lower in the months ahead, as they believe that the balance of cyclical and structural f

The analysis team at HSBC suggests that the USD-JPY will move lower in the months ahead, as they believe that the balance of cyclical and structural forces are gradually tilting to the downside for the pair.Key Quotes“On the cyclical front, our analysis shows that there has been a slight tendency for the pair to react less to higher US yields and more to lower US yields. We believe this highlights the rising influence of “risk on-risk off” where the JPY would benefit as a safe-haven currency.” “If US yields struggle to push higher from here, this could drag USD-JPY lower. But even if yields do rise, USD-JPY may struggle to gain. Higher US yields, particularly when they move sharply higher, can increase risk aversion, pushing equity markets lower and driving us into a risk off world. In that environment, the JPY is likely to be the best performer in G10.”

Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio was out on the wires in the last hour, via Ansa, saying that the only way to respect EU parameters is to m

Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio was out on the wires in the last hour, via Ansa, saying that the only way to respect EU parameters is to make a suicidal budget law that would bring on a recession. The comments pointed to a possible further escalation of the standoff between Rome and Brussels, which was evident from a further widening of the yield spread between Italian government bonds and German bunds and kept exerting downward pressure on the shared currency.

In view of analysts at Deutsche Bank, Brexit feels like its entering a crucial stretch and Friday was a bad day for the UK government with the weekend

In view of analysts at Deutsche Bank, Brexit feels like its entering a crucial stretch and Friday was a bad day for the UK government with the weekend headlines not offering much additional joy. Key Quotes“Pro-remain Tory MP Jo Johnson resigned and suggested he wouldn’t support the deal in its current form. The arithmetic around any deal passing through Parliament was already challenging enough without losing pro-remain Conservatives.” “The weekend media suggests there could be others refusing to vote in favour along those lines with the Sunday Times suggesting four such pro-remain Government resignations are possible. Basically the deal as it stands is being criticised by both remain and leave Conservatives and also by the DUP. Meanwhile the Labour Party opposition is highly unlikely to vote for it. So a deal being reached with the EU still seems the easy part of the equation.”“The DB house view is that not enough risk is priced into sterling given the Parliamentary problems ahead.”“Cabinet ministers have apparently been seeing the proposed text of the deal with the EU over the last few days (seemingly without the Irish section not yet availble) and if PM May can win their approval we could see a formal cabinet meeting early this week to formalise the deal before May makes a statement to the House of Commons.” “The situation is extremely fluid however especially with the increased backlash internally within the government and with the Irish border issue still outstanding. So these dates could easily (and seem likely to us to) be pushed back. How we get out of this cul-de-sac is very unclear.”  

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that with it being Veterans Day in the US (US stock market open but bond market is closed), it's a quiet start to th

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that with it being Veterans Day in the US (US stock market open but bond market is closed), it's a quiet start to the week.Key QuotesTuesday: There is no data of note in Asia on Tuesday. In Europe, we get Germany's final October CPI and November ZEW survey, the UK's September/October employment report, and France's preliminary Q3 wages and private sector payrolls data. In the US, we get the October NIFB small business optimism index reading and October monthly budget statement. Late in the night, we get Japan's preliminary Q3 GDP report. Away from the data, the Fed's Kashkari and Brainard, and ECB's Lautenschlaeger are due to speak. Tuesday marks the deadline that Italy is due to respond to the EU with its new 2019 budget. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will also speak to the European Parliament on “The Future of Europe,” while the ASEAN summit kicks off.”“Wednesday: It's a busy day for data on Wednesday with the highlights being Germany and the Euro Area's preliminary Q3 GDP prints, and US October CPI report. Overnight, we get China's October retail sales, industrial production and fixed investments data along with Japan's final September industrial production. In Europe, we also get final October CPI reports for France, Spain and the UK, the Euro Area's September industrial production and Q3 employment data. Also worth noting are scheduled comments from the Fed's Powell, Kaplan, and Quarles, and Bundesbank President Weidmann.”“Thursday: The main highlight on Thursday is likely to be US retail sales data for October. Prior to this, overnight we get China's October new home prices. In Europe, we get EU27 October car registrations, the Euro Area's September trade balance and the UK's October retail sales report. In the US, we get November Empire manufacturing and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook along with the October import price index reading, latest weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims, and September business inventories. The Fed's Powell, Quarles, and Kashkari, and ECB's de Guindos and Coeure will all be speaking at different times during the day too. The APEC summit will also kick off. The US International Trade Commission is also likely to submits its report to President Trump and Congress on the likely impact of USMCA on the US economy.”“Friday: It's a quiet end to the week on Friday. In Europe, we get the final October CPI revisions for the Euro Area and Italy. In the US, we get October industrial production, manufacturing production and capacity utilization along with the November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. Away from the data, ECB President Draghi, Bundesbank President Weidmann, and the Fed's Evans will be speaking at different times during the day.”  

Cable’s potential dip lower should see minor support in the 1.2785 level, according to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. K

Cable’s potential dip lower should see minor support in the 1.2785 level, according to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesGBP/USD last week did not manage to clear the 78.6% retracement at 1.3137 on a closing basis and near term we would allow for a dip lower. We have minor support at 1.2785, 5 th September low ahead of the 1.2662 August low. This should again hold for recovery. Below 1.2662 would trigger further weakness to the 61.8% retracement of the move 2016-2018 and June 2017 low at 1.2593/89”. “Minor resistance lies at 1.3025. Beyond this we would allow for gains to the top of the range at 1.3260/1.3363. Resistance at 1.3298/1.3363 guards the 200 day ma at 1.3393”.

Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney was out with some comments, via Twitter, saying that Brexit negotiation teams are engaging intensively but mo

Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney was out with some comments, via Twitter, saying that Brexit negotiation teams are engaging intensively but more work still needs to be done on Brexit. Good meeting with @MichelBarnier this morning - crucial week for #BREXIT - negotiating teams engaging intensively, more work still to be done. Solidarity across the EU remains very strong.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main rivals, is prolonging the upside momentum and is navigating fresh YTD p

The index remains bid although a tad below highs in the mid-97.00s.Yields of the US 10-year note sidelined above 3.18%.Markets’ focus remains on Brexit and Italy.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main rivals, is prolonging the upside momentum and is navigating fresh YTD peaks in the 97.50/60 band.US Dollar Index looks to risk trends for directionThe index has started the week on a positive footing, quickly advancing to the 97.60 region and recording at the same time fresh 2018 peaks, always amidst the persistent selling bias in EUR and the Sterling. In fact, the absence of fresh headlines around the UK-EU Brexit negotiations and the still unresolved issue around the backstop in the Irish border keep weighing on GBP at the beginning of the week, while investors still wait for the UK’s withdrawal draft, expected to be released at some point later in the week. Also weighing on sentiment appears Italy, as tomorrow is the deadline for the country to submit a revised (?) 2019 draft budget. It will be an interesting week in the US docket, as CPI figures, Retail Sales and the speech by Chief J.Powell are all due.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is gaining 0.52% at 97.40 and a breakout of 97.58 (2018 high Nov.12) would open the door to 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017). On the flip side, the next support emerges at 96.67 (10-day SMA) followed by 96.28 (21-day SMA) and finally 95.68 (low Nov.7).

   •  Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the British Pound.    •  A strong follow-through USD buying aggravates the selling pressure.

   •  Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the British Pound.
   •  A strong follow-through USD buying aggravates the selling pressure.
The GBP/USD pair remained heavily offered through the early European trading hours and was now seem to extend the downfall further below mid-1.2800s. The pair's attempted intraday rebound met with some fresh supply near the 1.2945-50 region and negative Brexit headlines provided bearish traders with a reason to regain their dominant position for the third consecutive session on Monday.  The British Pound crashed across the board in wake of mounting Brexit uncertainty, especially after the weekend report that four more ministers, who backed remaining in the EU, could resign in the final phase of Brexit negotiations.  The report also mentioned that the EU rejected the UK PM Theresa May's plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain’s departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees and further collaborated towards denting sentiment surrounding the British Pound.  May's Brexit plan was also facing opposition from Brexiteers, pro-Europeans, the Northern Irish party, and even some of her own ministers, and risks being voted down by parliament, increasing possibilities for a potentially chaotic no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, a strong follow-through greenback buying interest, lifting the key US Dollar Index to over 17-month tops, further aggravated the selling pressure on the first day of a new trading week and contributed to the pair's slide to an intraday low level of 1.2827.Technical outlookMario Blascak, FXStreet's own European Chief Analyst explains: “Technically the GBP/USD currency pair reversed the last week’s attempt to break higher as Brexit optimism faded away. The technical oscillators are pointing lower and the Slow Stochastics made a bearish crossover in the overbought territory. The GBP/USD currency pair opened with the gap on the downside and in the wave of Brexit uncertainty is likely to target 1.2800 first before falling towards 1.2662 cyclical low.”
 

Analysts at Nomura point out that the Banxico is scheduled to meet on Thursday and Nomura expect a 25bp hike to 8.0%. Key Quotes “Since the last Ban

Analysts at Nomura point out that the Banxico is scheduled to meet on Thursday and Nomura expect a 25bp hike to 8.0%.Key Quotes“Since the last Banxico meeting, inflation has not moved significantly (headline has remained unchanged at 4.90% y-o-y and core has risen to 3.73% from 3.63%). Growth recovered (0.9% q-o-q in Q3, after -0.2% in Q2), even if the output gap is still generally balanced, in our view. Importantly, however, USDMXN has moved to around 20 from around 19.” “In addition, the latest developments on the policy front from the incoming AMLO administration have also been less than optimal, in our opinion – including the cancelation of the Texcoco airport project and the recent reports of interventionism in the banking sector.” “We highlight that within the (plentiful) hawkish elements in communication Banxico added “greater-than-expected levels of public expenditure” as a risk to inflation. Thus, government policy-making is very much in the Banxico picture. Under these conditions, we believe a hike to 8.0% is more likely than not at this point.”

Reuters quoted a UK government source saying that no Cabinet meeting was ever scheduled for today and that Brexit negotiations are still ongoing. The

Reuters quoted a UK government source saying that no Cabinet meeting was ever scheduled for today and that Brexit negotiations are still ongoing. The comments, however, did little to ease the bearish pressure surrounding the British Pound, with the GBP/USD pair extending its slide further below mid-1.2800s.
 

Mikael Milhoj, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, noted further downside lies ahead for the cross in the near term. Key Quotes “EUR/CHF extended the dec

Mikael Milhoj, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, noted further downside lies ahead for the cross in the near term.Key Quotes“EUR/CHF extended the decline initiated after the SNB’s Andrea Maechler comments late last week regarding the challenges facing the SNB still”. “While CHF has failed to strengthen markedly during times of Italy sell-offs, we stress that the deteriorating Swiss outlook amid still-largely-absent inflation could lead the market to test the SNB’s policy toolbox (little leeway to cut and is it willing to restart interventions?)”. “This should keep EUR/CHF on the defensive short term”.

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted Cable has moved into a consolidative phase in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our anticipa

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted Cable has moved into a consolidative phase in the short-term horizon.Key Quotes24-hour view: “While our anticipation for a lower GBP last Friday was correct, the break of the strong 1.3000 support was not expected as Brexit headlines sent GBP plummeting (NY close of 1.2979). GBP opened lower this morning and the immediate pressure is still on the downside”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Despite the strong surge in GBP early this month, we have held the same view since last Wednesday (07 Nov, spot at 1.3100) wherein “it would be surprising if the rebound in GBP could break 1.3190” (GBP subsequently traded to a high of 1.3176). However, the manner of which it plunged below the 1.3000 ‘key support’ last Friday was not exactly expected (low of 1.2959). While the price action does not change the overall neutral outlook for GBP, upward pressure has eased and the 1.3176 high is deemed as a short-term top. In other words, we do not expect GBP to move above 1.3176 for the next couple of weeks. For now, we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. Near-term, the bias is titled to the downside but at this stage, we view any weakness as part of a broad 1.2800/1.3080 range”.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, assesses the recent performance in the pair. Key Quotes “USD/CHF saw a strong recovery

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, assesses the recent performance in the pair.Key QuotesUSD/CHF saw a strong recovery as the end of last week. It is possible that the recent minor dip lower is all that we are going to see and it is ready to resume its up move. However it will need to regain 1.0000 on a closing basis to confirm. We also note the 13 count on the daily chart and the TD resistance at 1.0157. We are unable to rule out a near term dip lower to the .9915/.9850 band. It will find additional support at the .9956 9 th October high and the 55 day ma at .9846”. “Below the 55 day ma alleviates immediate upside pressure for a slide back to the 200 day ma at .9785. Dips will find minor support at .9785, .9642 ahead of .9524”.

EUR/USD daily chart                         Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Last Price: 97.46     Daily change: 57 pips     Daily cha

EUR/USD accelerated the downside after breaking below the 1.1300 handle at the beginning of the week, recording fresh 2018 lows in the mid-1.1200s. The negative outlook remains unchanged around the pair in the near term and the downside could extend to sub-1.1200 levels, where emerges the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 up move. On the upside, recovery attempts should initially meet interim hurdle at the 10-day SMA at 1.1367 ahead of 1.1418, 21-day SMA. EUR/USD daily chart                         Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Last Price: 97.46
    Daily change: 57 pips
    Daily change: 0.588%
    Daily Open: 96.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.24
    Daily SMA50: 95.51
    Daily SMA100: 95.26
    Daily SMA200: 93.36
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.01
    Daily Low: 96.63
    Weekly High: 97.01
    Weekly Low: 95.68
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.86
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.78
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.68
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.46
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.3
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.06
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.22
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.44  

Headlines continue to pour in from a keynote speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, this time saying that external demand is the main factor be

Headlines continue to pour in from a keynote speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, this time saying that external demand is the main factor behind recent economic slowdown and downside risks have become more prominent.Key quotes:    •  We are back to normal after unusually high growth in 2017.
   •  Consumption remains quite positive.
   •  Spillover from Italy has been quite contained.
   •  The main problem of Italy is the low growth rate. 
   •  Still on course for ECB policy normalization.

Adding to his earlier comments, the BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent was further noted saying that Brexit transition period is most crucial for centr

Adding to his earlier comments, the BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent was further noted saying that Brexit transition period is most crucial for central bank outlook.Additional quotes:   •  Thinks reaching a Brexit deal is still the most likely outcome.
   •  A fair amount of uncertainty would disappear with a Brexit transition deal, some investment would come back.
   •  Surveys of business investment are as important as the official data - which comes out with a lag.
   •  Either having a Brexit deal or not, is not definitive in terms of setting interest rates.
   •  The Brexit outcome could mean rates go up or down. 
   •  Sterling presumably would be stronger in the event of a good Brexit deal.
   •  If we leave without a deal, likely the currency would fall.

   •  After filling the weekly bearish gap, the cross met with some fresh supply near the very important 200-day SMA and tumbled to over one-week lows

   •  After filling the weekly bearish gap, the cross met with some fresh supply near the very important 200-day SMA and tumbled to over one-week lows in the last hour.    •  A combination of negative factors - renewed Brexit uncertainties and reviving safe-haven demand, prompted some aggressive selling at the start of a new trading week.    •  A sustained break below the 147.00-90 region, marking 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 142.77-149.49 recent upsurge was seen as a key trigger for the bearish traders.   •  Technical indicators on hourly charts have drifted into oversold conditions and thus, warrant some intraday consolidation before the next leg of near-term downfall.    •  However, indicators on the daily chart have started gaining negative momentum and hence, any attempted recovery seems more likely to run into some fresh supply at higher levels.
 GBP/JPY 1-hourly chartGBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 146.65
    Daily change: -93 pips
    Daily change: -0.630%
    Daily Open: 147.58
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.37
    Daily SMA50: 146.72
    Daily SMA100: 145.81
    Daily SMA200: 147.4
Levels:
    Daily High: 149.08
    Daily Low: 147.5
    Weekly High: 149.5
    Weekly Low: 146.86
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 148.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 148.48
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 147.03
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 146.48
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 145.45
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 148.61
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 149.63
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 150.19  

Analysts at Nomura expect the US economic growth to slow towards potential over 2019 and into 2020 as the boost from stimulative fiscal policy wanes.

Analysts at Nomura expect the US economic growth to slow towards potential over 2019 and into 2020 as the boost from stimulative fiscal policy wanes.Key Quotes“Job gains remain well above the long-term sustainable pace and will likely continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate through 2019 before tighter monetary policy and financial conditions eventually slow employment growth. However, we expect slow productivity growth to persist, held down, in part, by structural declines in underlying business dynamism, limiting wage growth.” “Inflation: For 2018-20, we expect core inflation to pick up gradually as labor markets tighten and the economy moves towards potential. Core PCE inflation could pick up slightly faster than core CPI as healthcare service price inflation could accelerate while rent inflation gradually slows. With upside risk to healthcare prices and expected further labor market tightening, we expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.3% in Q4 2020.” “Policy: Facing strong momentum in aggregate demand, tightening labor markets, and inflation at the 2% symmetric target, we expect the Fed to hike one more time in 2018 and two times in 2019 before taking a pause through 2020. With our neutral rate estimate between 2% and 2.25%, we believe monetary policy will remain in a slightly restrictive stance for some time, tightening financial conditions. We think the roll-off of the balance sheet will continue to exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates, as will the large increase in the federal budget deficit.” “Risks: Recent market activity, and history, suggests financial conditions can turn quickly. Protectionist US trade policy remains a key risk as US-China tariffs take effect and the US moves forward with an investigation into imports of autos and auto parts. In addition, we see elevated risk of a partial government shutdown in December; the possibility of brinksmanship around the debt ceiling in 2019; and a looming fiscal cliff next autumn owing to remaining caps on discretionary spending in FY20. This reinforces our view that fiscal policy will contribute less to growth next year in 2019.”

Erik Johannes Bruce, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, forecasts Norway’s mainland GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (2.3% y/y) in Q3 up from 0.5% in Q2 and th

Erik Johannes Bruce, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, forecasts Norway’s mainland GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (2.3% y/y) in Q3 up from 0.5% in Q2 and the consensus is also 0.6% while Norges Bank’s forecast is 0.7%.Key Quotes“We have monthly GDP figure until August and with growth in line with trend in September we will end up with quarterly growth at 0,5%.” “Partly based on the monthly GDP figures, we see the risk of a significant downside surprise to the production figures to be small. However, the monthly national accounts figure points to a rather weak picture for mainland demand.” “In sum, the GDP and the demand figures could end up slightly below Norges Bank’s forecast and argue for a somewhat lower rate path in December. However, we believe the Q3 employment figure out together with GDP figure to be at least as important to Norges Bank’s view.”

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, speaking to CNBC this Monday, was quoted saying that growth has been reasonably weak for the last

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, speaking to CNBC this Monday, was quoted saying that growth has been reasonably weak for the last two years and there are signs of somewhat weaker economic growth in Q4.Key quotes:   •  Growth still strong enough to pressure wages.
   •  Wage growth is materially higher. 
   •  Seeing signs of domestic inflation pressure now.
   •  Seen intensification of drag on business investment, related to Brexit.
   •  Brexit uncertainty hits productivity, investment. 
   •  The outcome of Brexit could change the outlook for the UK economy materially.
   •  Limited and gradual rate guidance doesn't mean one rate hike per year precisely.
   •  Important thing is to ensure that we would not have to engage in a very steep series of rate hikes.

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, in a keynote speech at the opening conference of 21st Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, commented on Italy's bud

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, in a keynote speech at the opening conference of 21st Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, commented on Italy's budget proposals/debt situation and said that contagion from Italy is limited, though remains a possibility.Additional quotes:   •  Risks arising from leverage and liquidity mismatches in investment funds are potentially systemic.
   •  We need to take a more ambitious policy approach to systemic risks.
   •  Extending the macro-prudential framework to the asset management sector and developing policy tools to address emerging risks will be important. 
   •  Italy main prominent case at the moment.

Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.2% above expectations (-0.7%) in September

Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) rose from previous -0.8% to 1.3% in September

In view of analysts at Nomura, this week will be important for evaluating momentum in Q4 for the US economy with particular focus on the release of Oc

In view of analysts at Nomura, this week will be important for evaluating momentum in Q4 for the US economy with particular focus on the release of October retail sales and industrial production data.Key Quotes“We expect the October report to show robust retail sales, consistent with elevated consumer optimism and a strong labor market.” “We will also get October’s CPI report where we forecast a 0.231% m-o-m increase in core CPI, translating to 2.2% on a 12-month basis, in line with our medium term inflation outlook.” “Finally, there is some risk that early manufacturing surveys for November deteriorate further while remaining in expansionary territory.”

   •  The post-FOMC USD upsurge helps regain positive traction on Monday.    •  Reviving safe-haven demand keeps a lid on any strong follow-through.

   •  The post-FOMC USD upsurge helps regain positive traction on Monday.
   •  Reviving safe-haven demand keeps a lid on any strong follow-through.
The USD/JPY pair built on its positive momentum further beyond the 114.00 handle and spiked to fresh one-month tops in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter. After Friday's brief pause, the pair caught some aggressive bids at the start of a new trading week and the strong up-move was fueled by the ongoing US Dollar bullish momentum. Firming market expectations that the Fed might stick to its gradual monetary policy tightening cycle lifted the USD to fresh 17-month tops on Monday and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher. The pair touched an intraday high level of 114.21, the highest since Oct. 4, but lacked any strong follow-through amid the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand.  A combination of factors - US-China trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty and a standoff between Rome and Brussels over Italy's budget proposals, dented investors' appetite for riskier assets and was eventually seen capping any further up-move. In absence of any major market moving economic data in wake of a bank holiday in the US, broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to play an important role in influencing the pair's momentum through Monday's trading session. 

Technical levels to watchAny subsequent retracement is likely to find support near the 113.80 level, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide further towards the 113.55-50 region. On the flip side, a sustained move beyond the 114.10-20 area is likely to lift the pair further towards early-October swing highs, around the 114.55 supply zone.
 

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest increased by nearly 3.9K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 221,680 contract

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest increased by nearly 3.9K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 221,680 contracts. In the same direction, volume advanced by around 10.4K contracts, partially reverting the previous drop.USD/JPY targets 114.54/74The upside momentum in USD/JPY appears well and sound for the time being amidst the recent increase in volume and open interest. That said, spot keeps targeting 114.54 ahead of 114.74.

Analysts at ING suggest that there'll be a lot of focus on Norway's release of 3Q18 GDP figures. Key Quotes “Consensus expects mainland GDP to grow

Analysts at ING suggest that there'll be a lot of focus on Norway's release of 3Q18 GDP figures.Key Quotes“Consensus expects mainland GDP to grow 0.5% QoQ; we see risks closer to 0.7-0.8% QoQ, which should help firm up 1Q19 as the timing for the next move in the Norges Bank tightening cycle.” “NOK has been suffering slightly on the lower oil price, but with Eurozone growth slowing and the timing of ECB normalisation being called into question, we suspect that NOK will find buyers on dips.”

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the UK politics remain poisoned, as PM Theresa May tries to find a final compromise in her cabinet to unlock the

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the UK politics remain poisoned, as PM Theresa May tries to find a final compromise in her cabinet to unlock the negotiations with the EU. Key Quotes“The ambition was to have a full draft withdrawal text ready early this week but the decision may be postponed further, as May's proposal is under fire. While the withdrawal text is 95% complete, there is still no agreement on the backstop solution to the Irish border (i.e. how does one avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland if the UK and the EU fail to reach an agreement on the permanent future relationship during the transition, which removes the need for a hard border).” “The development during the past week supports our view that the real test is probably not reaching an agreement with the EU, but to get the deal through the House of Commons. Brexit hardliners, the DUP, moderate pro-EU Conservatives and Labour are all threatening to vote it down.” “Our base case is still that the EU and the UK will reach an agreement in December but that negotiations may slip into early January.” “We still expect a decent Brexit (75% probability) but think one should not rule out a 'no deal' Brexit (15% probability).”

GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by nearly 1.5K contracts on Friday vs. Thursday’s final 223,080 contracts, as showed by CME Group. In the

GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by nearly 1.5K contracts on Friday vs. Thursday’s final 223,080 contracts, as showed by CME Group. In the same line, volume increased by just 580 contracts.GBP/USD could test the sub-1.27 areaThe continuation of the choppy activity in both open interest and volume against the backdrop of declining prices hints at the likeliness that further pullbacks are in the pipeline for Cable. The immediate support of note should be October’s low just below the 1.2700 handle.

China's commerce ministry (MOFCOM) was out with some comments in the last hour and said that trade frictions with the US have limited impact on the co

China's commerce ministry (MOFCOM) was out with some comments in the last hour and said that trade frictions with the US have limited impact on the country's foreign trade. Additional quotes:   •  To speed up implementation of foreign trade policies in 2019.
   •  Foreign trade faces more severe, complicated situation next year.
   •  To ease burdens on exporters and importers.
   •  Will further ease market access/restrictions for the services sector.

   •  The USD climbs to 17-month tops and keeps exerting downward pressure.    •  A mildly positive tone around copper prices does little to lend any

   •  The USD climbs to 17-month tops and keeps exerting downward pressure.
   •  A mildly positive tone around copper prices does little to lend any support.
The AUD/USD pair's intraday bounce met with some aggressive supply near the 0.7235-40 region, with bears now eyeing a follow-through weakness below the 0.7200 mark. The pair extended last week's sharp rejection slide from the 0.7300 handle and kept losing ground for the third consecutive session on Monday amid a strong follow-through USD buying interest.  Firming expectations that the Fed will continue with its gradual monetary policy tightening cycle beyond 2018 lifted the key US Dollar Index to 17-month tops, just above the 97.00 handle, and was seen as one of the key factors exerting downward pressure on the major.  This coupled with the recent escalation in the US-China trade tensions, and expectations of an economic slowdown in China exerted some additional downward pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar. Even a mildly positive tone around copper prices did little to lend any support to the commodity-linked currency Aussie and stall the pair's ongoing slide to one-week lows. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any buying interest at lower levels or the current fall marks the end of the recent corrective bounce/resumption of the prior depreciating move to 32-month lows, touched on Oct. 26.Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the 0.7180 region, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide towards 0.7140 horizontal zone en-route the 0.7100 handle. On the flip side, the 0.7235-40 region now becomes immediate resistance and is followed by 100-day SMA hurdle, near the 0.7260 area, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 0.7300 handle.
 

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Mikael Milhoj noted volatility should remain high around the Sterling in the next weeks. Key Quotes “GBP has started t

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Mikael Milhoj noted volatility should remain high around the Sterling in the next weeks.Key Quotes“GBP has started the week on a weak note following a solid performance so far this month. Last night, EUR/GBP bounced back above 0.8750 after testing 0.8700 last week”. “As such, the sell-off in GBP appears to be more of a technical nature initiated by GBP/USD breaking below 1.2950. Brexit remains the key driver for GBP and the UK PM still struggles to secure support for the deal internally within the UK conservative party. Hence, expect GBP to remain very volatile in coming months”.

Analysts at ING suggest that the politics will dominate Swedish markets this week, where Wednesday will see the centre-right Moderates try to secure t

Analysts at ING suggest that the politics will dominate Swedish markets this week, where Wednesday will see the centre-right Moderates try to secure their leader, Ulf Kristersson, as the next Prime Minister.Key Quotes“The vote will be close and should help the SEK should it succeed, but failure should not necessarily be a knock-out blow for the SEK. We say this because there would still be a chance of 2019 budget proposals being approved a day later, which would end some welcome uncertainty.” “This week will also see Swedish October CPI, which may come in on the high side and cement expectations of a December Riksbank rate hike. Those expectations may hold until some softer 3Q18 Swedish GDP data is released at the end of the month.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on spot and see it testing the mid-114.00s in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD t

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on spot and see it testing the mid-114.00s in the next weeks.Key Quotes24-hour view: “We expected USD to “test 114.25 first easing off” last Friday but it only managed to touch a high of 114.08. Upward pressure has eased with the pull-back from the high and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect USD to trade sideways for today, likely between 113.60 and 114.05”. Next 1-3 weeks: “As highlighted, a break of 114.00 would shift the focus to the October’s peak of 114.54. At this stage, the odds for a sustained move above 114.54 are not high. All in, we continue to expect USD stay underpinned in the coming days as long as the 113.20 ‘key support’ is intact (level previously at 112.90)”.

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could drop further and test the 1.1258 level. Key Quotes “EUR/USD l

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could drop further and test the 1.1258 level.Key QuotesEUR/USD last week failed to maintain the break of the 6 week downtrend and starts this week back on the defensive. This is negative price action and it is likely that we will see a retest of the 1.1301/00 recent low and there is scope for the pivot line at 1.1258. Near term rallies are likely to remain thwarted by 1.1380/1.1447. Resistance at 1.1500 guards the mid-October high at 1.1623”. “Only above 1.1625 will neutralise the chart further and allow for another run up to the 1.1790/1.1815 region. We continue to favour the topside but there is more work to be done”.

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources-Khalid Al-Falih, was out on the wires in the last hour and said that we are not targ

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources-Khalid Al-Falih, was out on the wires in the last hour and said that we are not targeting a price. Key quotes:   •  OPEC+ won’t let inventory to continue building.
   •  OPEC+ to do all it can to keep inventory in a narrow band.
   •  We’ll maintain long-term market balance.
   •  Our customers demand in December declined by more than half a million bpd as compared to November.
   •  Tech analysis shows we need to reduce supply by 1 million bpd from October level.
   •  The consensus is that we need to do whatever it takes to balance the market, including output cut.

OPEC+ oil ministers held preparatory talks before next month's OPEC meeting on Sunday and indicated that oil production cuts in 2019 are on the table

OPEC+ oil ministers held preparatory talks before next month's OPEC meeting on Sunday and indicated that oil production cuts in 2019 are on the table as a glut in the oil market remains, notes the research team at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“Saudi Arabia has hinted it will reduce oil exports by as much as 0.5million a day in December.” “Russia seems more reluctant to cut output, as the Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak has said it is hard to say whether supply will be too high next year.” “The oil price is currently slightly above USD71 per barrel, which is 15 dollars weaker than its peak in early October.”

Analysts at ING point out that the EUR/CHF cross is still trading very narrow ranges and doesn’t seem to be responding to Italian risk much these days

Analysts at ING point out that the EUR/CHF cross is still trading very narrow ranges and doesn’t seem to be responding to Italian risk much these days.Key Quotes“For what it’s worth, we note that the one year 25 delta Risk Reversal is narrowing sharply – meaning the cost of insuring against a downside break in EUR/CHF is declining. Thus looking at EUR/CHF alone, it seems that investors are not increasing their bets on another Eurozone crisis.” “The Swiss data calendar is light, but in theory EUR/CHF should come under pressure from soft Eurozone 3Q18 activity data.” “Also, keep a watch on how USD/CHF trades near 1.0100. A break above here could encourage fresh follow-through buying from model-based funds and actually help EUR/CHF a little higher.”

   •  Negative Brexit headlines weigh heavily on GBP and led to a bullish weekly gap.    •  Italy's budget/debt situation drags the EUR and keeps a li

   •  Negative Brexit headlines weigh heavily on GBP and led to a bullish weekly gap.
   •  Italy's budget/debt situation drags the EUR and keeps a lid on any runaway rally.
The EUR/GBP cross climbed to over one-week tops touched in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter and is currently placed just a few pips above mid-0.8700s.  After Friday's goodish rebound from over six-month tops, the cross opened with a bullish gap at the start of a new trading week and was being supported by a heavily offered tone around the British Pound, led by some fresh negative Brexit headlines over the weekend.  The British Pound came under some intense selling pressure on the back of a report that four more ministers, who backed remaining in the EU, could resign over Brexit tensions and that the EU rejected the UK PM Theresa May's plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain’s departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. Further gains, however, remained capped amid concerns over a standoff between Rome and Brussels over Italy's budget proposals, which was seen exerting some fresh downward pressure on the shared currency. Bullish traders seemed rather unaffected by the news that Italy's Economy Minister Giovanni Tria is considering to tweak the plan by lowering 2019 growth forecast to meet EU budget demand.  Italy is requested to submit a revised draft budget plan to the Commission by November 13, i.e. tomorrow, and in absence of any major market moving economic releases, either from the UK or the Euro-zone, the incoming political headlines might continue to play an important role in influencing the pair's momentum through Monday's trading session. Technical levels to watchMomentum beyond 0.8775 (session tops) is likely to get extended towards reclaiming the 0.8800 handle before the cross eventually darts to the 0.8830-40 supply zone. On the flip side, any meaningful retracement now seems to find some support near the 0.8735-30 region, below which the cross is likely to head back towards challenging the 0.8700 round figure mark.
 

 The selling pressure around the European currency is now picking up pace and is forcing EUR/USD to print fresh YTD lows in the boundaries of 1.1270.

The pair stays depressed and prints yearly lows near 1.1270.The greenback moves higher to the vicinity of 97.40.Brexit talks and Italy remains in centre stage. The selling pressure around the European currency is now picking up pace and is forcing EUR/USD to print fresh YTD lows in the boundaries of 1.1270.EUR/USD look to Brexit, ItalyThe pair is extending the negative stance at the beginning of the week, retreating for the fourth day in a row after being rejected from the 1.1500 neighbourhood on last Wednesday. The Brexit negotiation continues to drive the sentiment surrounding the risk-associated assets along with Italian politics. In this regard, markets keep looking to PM May’s government, which is expected to submit a draft withdrawal at some point during the week, although the backstop solution for the Irish border still remains unsolved. In Italy, the government should re-submit a revised version of the 2019 draft budget to the EU Commission, although optimism on a deal remains low (if any at all). In the data space, Italian Industrial Production will be the only release in Euroland, whereas nothing is scheduled across the pond.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is down 0.51% at 1.1278 and a break below 1.1269 (2018 low Nov.12) would target 1.1188 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 up move) en route to 1.1118 (low Jun.20 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 1.1369 (10-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1502 (high Nov.7).

A former UK cabinet minister, Justine Greening, was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit deal will not pass i

A former UK cabinet minister, Justine Greening, was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit deal will not pass in parliament and that "the deal is over".Additional quotes:   •  Should put final say on Brexit in the hands of the British people.
   •  UK should have a referendum with three choices i.e. current deal, leave on WTO rules or stay in the EU.

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that the Aussie hit a post-Brexit low against the British pound in mid-October as AUD underperfor

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that the Aussie hit a post-Brexit low against the British pound in mid-October as AUD underperformed amid broad yield-driven US dollar gains and GBP found some support on Brexit negotiations.Key Quotes“AUD’s recovery since then has been supported by multi-month highs on Australia’s commodity prices, encouraging domestic data and some faltering in sterling sentiment.” “The coming weeks are vital for whether a workable Brexit agreement is reached so it is hard to have confidence in near term AUD performance versus the pound.” “Failure to compromise could see a return to GBP 0.57 or AUD 1.75 while positive Brexit news should see a reversal of the recent AUD gains, though perhaps not as far as the early Oct levels, given AUD’s stronger fundamental support.”

Turkey Current Account Balance below forecasts ($2B) in September: Actual ($1.83B)

Denmark Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 0.6% to 0.8% in October

Denmark Inflation (HICP) (YoY) climbed from previous 0.5% to 0.7% in October

   •  The pair extended last week's sharp retracement slide from three-week tops and opened with a bearish gap amid renewed Brexit uncertainties.    

   •  The pair extended last week's sharp retracement slide from three-week tops and opened with a bearish gap amid renewed Brexit uncertainties.   •  Friday's decisive break below 200-hour SMA, and a subsequent fall below 50% Fibo. level of the 1.2694-1.3175 up-move was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders.    •  The pair's inability to build on the attempted intraday bounce beyond the 1.2945-50 region now points to increased selling interest at higher levels.    •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have drifted into oversold territory and might turn out to be the only factor helping limit further downside for now.
 GBP/USD 1-hourly chartGBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2897
    Daily change: -72 pips
    Daily change: -0.555%
    Daily Open: 1.2969
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2978
    Daily SMA50: 1.3032
    Daily SMA100: 1.3034
    Daily SMA200: 1.3403
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3073
    Daily Low: 1.2958
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3002
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3029
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2928
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2886
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2813
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3042
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3115
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3156  

Forex today opened to quiet markets, with a thin calendar in the offering for Monday and holiday markets waiting ahead in the upcoming US session. The

Forex today opened to quiet markets, with a thin calendar in the offering for Monday and holiday markets waiting ahead in the upcoming US session. The Aussie and the Kiwi both kicked higher to start the week, but flagged back into near-term lows as over-eager trades stepped back from the fold, while the Japanese Yen took a break in early Monday action, retreating modestly to allow the broader market reclaim recently-lost ground. EUR/USD: Focus on Italy-German yield spread ahead of Italy budget deadline It's a Thanksgiving long weekend for the US, and Canadian markets are also out for Monday in observance of Remembrance Day, leaving the brunt of market action to the upcoming European and London market sessions. In the EU, focus remains on Italian budget loggerheads, and as the German-Italian bond yield spread continues to widen, the Fiber is looking down the barrel of breaking down below the critical 1.1300 handle for the first time in over a year. GBP/USD: Brexit anxiety boosts demand for GBP puts (bearish bets) Across the Channel, Brexit woes continue to plague the Cable, and despite managing to close a bearish gap to kick off the week, the GBP/USD is primed for a continuation of last week's declines, losing the 1.2900  key technical level heading into Monday's action.Key notes from the Asian sessionMoody's: risk of a "no-deal" Brexit has risen - Reuters Japan's Abe calls for public works spending plan to support economy - Reuters Over the weekend: Brexit divergence continues to widen

According to analysts at ING, some better employment 3Q18 employment data and a slightly more positive RBNZ has seen quite a substantial steepening of

According to analysts at ING, some better employment 3Q18 employment data and a slightly more positive RBNZ has seen quite a substantial steepening of the NZD money market curve (some 10-30bp across 1-3 year maturities) has helped the NZD.Key Quotes“This week the only big quarterly release is PPI, but we doubt this is a big market mover. Instead, we expect NZD to largely trade alongside, if not slightly out-perform its AUD peer, both being driven by Chinese data.” “Similar to the AUD, a re-assessment of very flat money market curves are helping the currency, but the headwinds from high US rates look here to stay.  As such NZD could perform better on the crosses than against the USD.”

Analysts at Nomura suggest that with the US midterm elections behind us, and an impending return to divided government, upcoming fiscal challenges for

Analysts at Nomura suggest that with the US midterm elections behind us, and an impending return to divided government, upcoming fiscal challenges for both the outgoing 115th and incoming 116th Congresses may begin to affect markets.Key Quotes“We see elevated risk of a partial government shutdown in December, the possibility of brinksmanship around the debt ceiling in 2019 and a looming fiscal cliff next autumn owing to remaining caps on discretionary spending in FY20.This reinforces our view that fiscal policy will contribute less to growth next year.”

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that Turkey’s September CA balance is expected to be in surplus at $1.9bn after a $4.6bn deficit in September of las

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that Turkey’s September CA balance is expected to be in surplus at $1.9bn after a $4.6bn deficit in September of last year.Key Quotes“The consensus expectation implies that in the 12m to September the CA deficit was $44.8bn down from $51.1bn in the 12m to August.” “The CA deficit is on a clear narrowing trend, albeit from very wide levels, as the economy is slowing down fast. While this is ultimately positive and a necessary part of the rebalancing process, we think the market will increasingly switch its focus to the negative impact of the slowdown on corporate balance sheets, which have been already hit by the TRY sell-off.”

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) fell from previous 2.8% to -1.1% in October

The British pound is taking a beating in early European trade as Brexit talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from

The British pound is taking a beating in early European trade as Brexit talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland.

Hourly chart The lower highs and lower lows, as seen in the hourly chart, indicate the bears are in control. Notably, the oversold conditions rep

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1313 and could soon drop below 1.13, courtesy of bearish technical setup, Italy uncertainty, and growing Fed-ECB divergence. The bearish outlook would be invalidated if the pair bounces off from the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1308.Hourly chartThe lower highs and lower lows, as seen in the hourly chart, indicate the bears are in control. Notably, the oversold conditions reported by the hourly chart RSI on Friday failed to yield a significant corrective rally, which is usually the case in a bearish market.Daily chartThe pair charted a third lower high (bearish pattern) at 1.15 last week, having topped out above 1.18 in September. The 5-day and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) have rolled over in favor of the bears. The 14-day RSI is flashing bearish conditions below 50.00.Weekly chartAs can be seen above, the 200-week SMA acted as strong support in August and October. So, the bearish case would weaken if the support again proves a tough nut to crack. 

Asian equities are taking it easy on Monday, with major indexes eking out minor gains, or at least managing to maintain an upright position heading in

Asian markets are remaining moderately bid as investors search for an impetus to hold their buys instead of out-right fleeing.Markets are bracing for a feared steepening slowdown at the hands of protectionist trade wars.Asian equities are taking it easy on Monday, with major indexes eking out minor gains, or at least managing to maintain an upright position heading into another week, with questions surrounding how long the recent bullish runs can last. With key data due for China's economy on Wednesday, investors will be looking to keep the boat upright, although global indexes are facing increasing pressure as the latest round of earnings are sparking concerns that a peak may have been reached, and the other side of the hill could be coming in for a landing. US CPI readings due later in the week will also give investors some further indications about what the potential costs of a Sino-US trade war could cost. As noted by Junheung Li, the founder of JL Warren Capital LLC, "Clearly there’s a deceleration due to the soft macro picture for the economy, but where we can get some comfort from this number is that Chinese consumers are slowing, not collapsing.” Japan's markets are mixed, with the Tokyo Topix index down -0.11% and the Nikkei 225 up a scant 0.05%, while China is moderately more positive, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng up 0.27% and the Shanghai CSI 300 looking for more recovery, up over 0.90% on the day, while Australia's ASX 200 remains up 0.33%. Emerging markets, the Achillies heel of the Pacific-Asia market session sees declines i nthe broad Asia MSCI index, declining -1.20%. Nikkei 225 Overview:
    Last Price: 22285
    Daily change: 2.1e+4 pips
    Daily change: 0.951%
    Daily Open: 22075
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 22024.5
    Daily SMA50: 22902.8
    Daily SMA100: 22701.65
    Daily SMA200: 22387.78
Levels:
    Daily High: 22075
    Daily Low: 22075
    Weekly High: 22570
    Weekly Low: 21870
    Monthly High: 24480
    Monthly Low: 20800
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 22075
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 22075
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 22075  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that Wednesday 14 November reveals the much-anticipated Q3 wages report of Australia  and notes that the pace of a

Analysts at TD Securities point out that Wednesday 14 November reveals the much-anticipated Q3 wages report of Australia  and notes that the pace of annual wages growth has barely increased between the Dec qtr 2016 low of 1.87%/y and the Jun qtr report of 2.14%/y.Key Quotes“This lacklustre pickup in wage growth momentum has been undershooting the signals from business surveys (e.g. NAB, PMI) and the more traditional Phillips curve approach, where a 5% unemployment rate used to generate annual wage growth closer to 3½-4%/y (pre-2014).” “Consensus is clustered around +0.6%/q (16/25) and TD is slightly on the hawkish side at +0.7%/q with a few others (7/25). Two outliers look for weaker prints of +0.4%/q and +0.5%/q (one of each).” “For some time now the markets see 3%/y wages growth as a the main trigger for higher cash rates, so we need to see this report posting annual wages growth closer to 2½% to make the markets seriously price in a rate hike for H2 2019. However, we don't see a big risk of an outsized print as while Q3 includes the 1 July 3.5% minimum wage increase the second round of penalty rate cuts also began from 1 July, offsetting the impact somewhat.” “The RBA needs higher wages for two key reasons (1) along with solid employment growth means higher household incomes can manage a tightening cycle, even if rate hikes are modest by historical standards; and (2) provides a valuable offset to declining asset prices, i.e. the housing and equity market correction underway in recent months.”

The ratings agency Moody's take on Brexit, global credit conditions, economic growth and trade, and geopolitical risks is crossing the wires via Reute

The ratings agency Moody's take on Brexit, global credit conditions, economic growth and trade, and geopolitical risks is crossing the wires via Reuters:Key pointsThe risk of the UK withdrawing from the EU without a trade agreement in place has risen The slowdown in economic growth will give way to even weaker global credit conditions in 2020 Tensions between the US and China will spread far beyond trade disputes Global trade, political and geopolitical risks will likely escalate in 2019 as tensions between the US and China heightens. Global credit conditions to weaken in 2019 amid slowing growth and rising risks.      

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $1,210, having dropped close to 2 percent last week. A major chunk of that drop happened on Friday - a day aft

Gold fell sharply last week as the Fed reaffirmed policy tightening stance.The demand for gold call options (bullish bets) has dropped sharply in the last six days, adding credence to bearish technical setup.Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $1,210, having dropped close to 2 percent last week. A major chunk of that drop happened on Friday - a day after the Fed reaffirmed its hawkish policy stance, setting the stage for a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in December. The price drop has likely put the bears back into the driver's seat. Notably, the demand (or the implied volatility premium) for the call options has weakened sharply since last Tuesday. For instance, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (XAU1MRR) are currently being paid at 0.125 XAU calls vs 0.90 XAU calls last Tuesday. The falling demand for XAU calls could be considered a sign that investors are expecting (and hedging for) a further drop in gold prices.XAU1MRR

Analysts at Nomura point out that China’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation stabilised at 2.5% y-o-y in October, unchanged from September, as the m

Analysts at Nomura point out that China’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation stabilised at 2.5% y-o-y in October, unchanged from September, as the moderation of food price inflation – driven by falling vegetable prices – fully offset the rise in non-food price inflation.Key Quotes“Producer price index (PPI) inflation fell further to 3.3% y-o-y from 3.6%, mainly due to a high base last year and the continued weakening of domestic demand.” “We maintain our forecast for a mild rise in annual CPI inflation to 2.1% in 2018 from 1.6% in 2017 and believe contained inflation will not affect Beijing’s policy easing agenda.” “In our view, investors should keep an eye on developments around African swine fever (ASF), but risks to headline inflation from other factors – floods in Shouguang city, sky-rocketing rents in Beijing, RMB depreciation and escalating China-US trade tensions – are overdone.” “We expect the downtrend in PPI inflation to continue in a milder manner through winter given a less severe anti-pollution campaign this year compared to last.”

During a speaking event at the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that he wants to see further sti

During a speaking event at the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that he wants to see further stimulus for the Japanese domestic economy in an effort to push the economy higher.Key highlightsAbe wants even further stimulus measures for the Japanese economy. H1 2019 spending needs to be driven higher. Abe announced the measures at the CEFP. Size and details of the pending spending package are unknown. Abe has asked Economy Minister Motegi to focus on public works spending. Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi: "The prime minister asked me to take firm measures to ensure that our economic recovery continues. He also said the public works spending program expected at the end of this year should be compiled with this point in mind." 
 

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 2.5% to -0.4% in September

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 1.9% in September from previous -0.4%

Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s retail spending on electronic cards increased 0.1% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted), on the back of two co

Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s retail spending on electronic cards increased 0.1% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted), on the back of two consecutive monthly rises in excess of 1%, supported by the Families Package.Key Quotes“Looking through the volatility, trend growth in core retail spending was steady at 0.6% m/m (where it’s been since August after accelerating from April), but there has been a slowing trend in the vehicles component.” “This mixed picture is consistent with the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index, which slipped in October on the back of consumers’ increased wariness about their future financial position, but also showed that households still think now is a good time to buy a major household item (but perhaps not a vehicle).” “Overall, the vibe of today’s data is “steady to moderating” heading into Q4, but we caution that these data can be volatile on a monthly basis and don’t always provide a good steer on real private consumption within GDP.”  

The GBP/USD gapped lower in Asia as rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend squashed hopes of November deal. The Sunday Times reported yeste

GBP dropped in Asia on Brexit anxiety - four UK ministers are on the verge of quitting. The EU rejected the latest plan.Brexit uncertainty boosted demand for GBP puts options (right to sell the asset), meaning investors are likely expecting more weakness in Cable.The GBP/USD gapped lower in Asia as rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend squashed hopes of November deal. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that four pro-EU British ministers are on the verge of quitting. The report also said that the European Union (EU) rejected May's plans for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain's departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. As a result, cable opened at 1.2915 in early Asia and rose to a high of 1.2947. The gains, however, could be short-lived, courtesy of Brexit uncertainty. Moreover, the Irish border issue remains a stumbling block in Brexit talks. Also, the implied volatility premium for the GBP puts has risen sharply. The one-month 25 delta risk reversals (GBP1MRR) are currently being paid at 1.087 GBP puts vs 0.817 GBP puts. The growing demand for GBP puts (bearish bets) indicates the investors are likely expecting a deeper drop in the currency. At press time, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2930.GBP1MRRGBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2931
    Daily change: -38 pips
    Daily change: -0.293%
    Daily Open: 1.2969
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2978
    Daily SMA50: 1.3032
    Daily SMA100: 1.3034
    Daily SMA200: 1.3403
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3073
    Daily Low: 1.2958
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3002
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3029
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2928
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2886
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2813
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3042
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3115
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3156  

New Zealand economy’s ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% m/m (up 2.9% y/y) in October, kicking Q4 off on a softer note, points out the analysis tea

New Zealand economy’s ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% m/m (up 2.9% y/y) in October, kicking Q4 off on a softer note, points out the analysis team at ANZ.  Key Quotes“We think the headline could be understating the underlying pulse. There was only one area of significant weakness in the Gauge – the recently-volatile accommodation services component – and the number of components to lift in the month hit an 8-year high. Excluding accommodation services, the index lifted 0.3% m/m, but remained at 2.4% y/y.”

Analysts at Nomura expect US core CPI to increase 0.231% m-o-m (2.192% y-o-y) in October after decelerating in August and September. Key Quotes “Par

Analysts at Nomura expect US core CPI to increase 0.231% m-o-m (2.192% y-o-y) in October after decelerating in August and September.Key Quotes“Part of the increase in core CPI inflation will likely be the result of an expected rebound in used vehicle prices as methodological changes introduced increased volatility this year.” “We forecast a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in CPI food prices, driven primarily by an expected pickup in prices for food away from home. Energy prices likely increased 1.9% m-o-m on a seasonally-adjusted basis.” “Altogether, we expect headline CPI to increase 0.352% m-o-m, translating to 2.555% on a 12-month basis. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.965.”

The EUR/USD could drop below 1.13 for the first time since June 2017 as the standoff between Rome and Brussels will likely lead to a widening of the y

Italy has until Tuesday to submit a revised budget draft to the EU.Italy-German yield spread looks set to rise in the EUR-negative manner as Italy is unlikely to revise lower its expansive budget deficit target.The EUR/USD could drop below 1.13 for the first time since June 2017 as the standoff between Rome and Brussels will likely lead to a widening of the yield spread between Italian government bonds and German bunds. The currency pair registered marginal gains in Asia, possibly due to reports stating that Italy is considering to tweak the plan by lowering 2019 growth forecast to 1 percent to secure a budget deal with the European Union. The disputed fiscal deficit target, however, is set to remain unchanged at 2.4 percent, according to Repubblica. Simply put, both sides remain far apart on key issues. As a result, the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German counterpart, currently at 294 basis points (bps), will likely jump back above 300 bps, leading to a sell-off in the common currency.  Notably, the widening of the yield spread would only bolster the already bearish technical setup: the EUR charted a third lower high at 1.15 last week, having topped out at 1.1815 in September. At press time, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1323. Rome has until Tuesday to submit a revised budget draft to the EU. EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1322
    Daily change: -16 pips
    Daily change: -0.141%
    Daily Open: 1.1338
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.154
    Daily SMA100: 1.1579
    Daily SMA200: 1.1842
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1369
    Daily Low: 1.1316
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1337
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1349
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1313
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1288
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.126
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1366
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1394
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1419  

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish USD/INR Overview:     Last Price: 72.835     Daily change: 3.3e+3 pips     Daily change: 0.462%     Daily Open: 72.5

The USD/INR is currently trading at 72.78, up 0.20 percent on the day, having witnessed a falling wedge breakout (bullish continuation pattern) on Nov. 8.The pair has also established a bullish higher low and higher high after wedge breakout.The Fed reaffirmed its hawkish stance last week, setting the stage for a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The central bank has signaled three rate hikes in 2019.The pair could soon rise to 73.00. A break above that level would expose the Oct. 31 high of $74.04. Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish USD/INR Overview:
    Last Price: 72.835
    Daily change: 3.3e+3 pips
    Daily change: 0.462%
    Daily Open: 72.5
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 73.2448
    Daily SMA50: 72.9378
    Daily SMA100: 71.0254
    Daily SMA200: 68.5292
Levels:
    Daily High: 72.847
    Daily Low: 72.394
    Weekly High: 73.154
    Weekly Low: 72.34
    Monthly High: 74.504
    Monthly Low: 72.525
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 72.674
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 72.567
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 72.3137
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 72.1273
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 71.8607
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 72.7667
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 73.0333
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 73.2197  

USD/JPY M5 The past week has seen the USD/JPY maintain a bullish lean, with frequent bounces into the 200-period moving average, keeping the pair

The Dollar-Yen pairing's early Monday action has the pair setting up for a rejection from the 114.00 handle unless Greenback buyers can find the momentum to mount and hold the critical technical handle.USD/JPY M5The past week has seen the USD/JPY maintain a bullish lean, with frequent bounces into the 200-period moving average, keeping the pair close to major averages.USD/JPY M30Hourly candles see the Dollar beginning to run away with the game against the Japanese Yen, pulling away from the key 200-hour moving average which currently sits near 113.30, and the 50-hour moving average at 113.80 is providing near-term support for a move higher.USD/JPY H1USD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.98
    Daily change: 19 pips
    Daily change: 0.167%
    Daily Open: 113.79
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.78
    Daily SMA50: 112.58
    Daily SMA100: 111.87
    Daily SMA200: 110.04
Levels:
    Daily High: 114.1
    Daily Low: 113.64
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.82
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.92
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.59
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 113.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 113.13
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 114.05
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.3
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.51  

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday called for a new public works spending program to stimulate the economy and ensure the recovery continues

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday called for a new public works spending program to stimulate the economy and ensure the recovery continues amid rising protectionism. The spending expected in the first half of next fiscal year will focus on strengthening infrastructure to withstand earthquakes and frequent flooding, according to a presentation made at the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP).   Some of Japan's top government advisers also called for stimulus to counter the negative impact of the nationwide sales tax in October next year.

One-month 25 delta USD/CNY risk reversals (CNY1MRR) fell on Monday to the lowest level since the end of August, indicating that investors are likely e

One-month 25 delta USD/CNY risk reversals (CNY1MRR) fell on Monday to the lowest level since the end of August, indicating that investors are likely expecting a pullback in the USD/CNY and hence are seeking a downside protection (USD/CNY puts).   The risk reversals gauge currently stands at -0.05, the lowest since Aug. 29.  Risk reversals are a gauge of investor expectations for a currency's direction and are used to hedge against expected moves. The negative print indicates greater demand for put options  – derivatives that give investors the right to sell an asset. On the other hand, a positive risk reversals number indicates greater demand for calls  – options that give investors the right to buy the asset. The drop in the risk reversals from the Oct. 26 high of 1.025 to -0.05 represents a bullish-to-bearish trend change in the USD/CNY options market.CNY1MRR 

As reported by Bloomberg, declines in oil prices are forming up a catalyst relationship with emerging markets. Key quotes "Last week’s slide in crud

As reported by Bloomberg, declines in oil prices are forming up a catalyst relationship with emerging markets.Key quotes"Last week’s slide in crude was partly behind the weakness in the Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Malaysian ringgit, according to Societe Generale SA. With oil wallowing in a bear market, OPEC and its allies gathered in Abu Dhabi on Sunday to weigh production cuts. “Oil-importing emerging economies’ currencies would likely react negatively to a cut in OPEC output given Iranian oil exports are already likely to wane over time under the impact of U.S. sanctions,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the Singapore-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at NatWest Markets. “In contrast, if oil prices fall it will benefit the currencies of major oil-importing emerging markets including the Indian rupee and Turkish lira.” The outlook for oil, a key source of revenue for Russia and Saudi Arabia, is adding a fresh twist for a market already obsessed with Federal Reserve tightening and the U.S.-China trade dispute. The prospect of any breakthrough on trade took a knock Friday when White House trade adviser Peter Navarro warned Wall Street not to pressure President Donald Trump into a quick deal. Adipec conference starts Monday in Abu Dhabi, with hundreds of oil executives and government officials attending, following OPEC/non-OPEC committee meetings over the weekend."

Comments from China's Finance Minister are crossing the wires: Will lower tax burden for exporters. Will step up tax reduction. Will further redu

Comments from China's Finance Minister are crossing the wires: Will lower tax burden for exporters. Will step up tax reduction. Will further reduce fees for companies.

The EUR/JPY is currently reporting marginal gains above 129.12, having clocked a low of 128.77 earlier today. The recovery from the session lows is l

EUR/JPY moved above 129.00 a few minutes before press time, having charted a lower high around 130.00 last week.The pair is mildly bid amid gains in the Asian stocks.Looming Italy crisis could cap gains in the common currency.The EUR/JPY is currently reporting marginal gains above 129.12, having clocked a low of 128.77 earlier today. The recovery from the session lows is likely associated with the gains in the Asian equities. For instance, the Shanghai Composite index is up 0.4 percent. Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng are also flashing green. Meanwhile, stocks in New Zealand, South Korea are reporting moderate losses. The common currency may have also picked up a bid on reports that Italy is considering trimming its growth forecasts to secure a budget deal with the European Union (EU).   The gains in the EUR/JPY, however, could be short-lived if the spread between Italy and German bond yields spikes courtesy of a standoff between Rome and Brussels. The troubled nation has until Tuesday to submit a revised budget draft to the EU.EUR/JPY Technical LevelsEUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 129.12
    Daily change: 10 pips
    Daily change: 0.0775%
    Daily Open: 129.02
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.85
    Daily SMA50: 129.91
    Daily SMA100: 129.52
    Daily SMA200: 130.24
Levels:
    Daily High: 129.68
    Daily Low: 128.74
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 129.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 129.32
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 128.61
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 128.21
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 127.67
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 129.55
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 130.08
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.49  

The AUD/JPY is trading into 82.50 in early Monday action as broader markets regain their bullish posture despite a bearish gap opening the week's cand

Early-market action is seeing markets recover from a bearish opening.Monday data and trade volumes will both be limited.The AUD/JPY is trading into 82.50 in early Monday action as broader markets regain their bullish posture despite a bearish gap opening the week's candlesticks. Economic data has been thin for the early Asian market session, although Domestic Corporate Goods Prices for Japan came in largely as-expected, and Monday can expect to carry on with thin volumes amidst an anemic data calendar and a US Thanksgiving long weekend keeping the later day's volumes constrained, and traders will be awaiting the mid-week's higher-impact economic readings. Trade war concerns continue to be a major narrative for the Pacific-Asia session, and a recent thawing between the US and China could spiral out into a fresh round of broad-market risk aversion if trade war rhetoric returns to the fold.AUD/JPY Technical LevelsAUD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 82.39
    Daily change: 21 pips
    Daily change: 0.256%
    Daily Open: 82.18
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 80.55
    Daily SMA50: 80.62
    Daily SMA100: 81.25
    Daily SMA200: 82.09
Levels:
    Daily High: 82.88
    Daily Low: 82.11
    Weekly High: 83.06
    Weekly Low: 81.24
    Monthly High: 82.5
    Monthly Low: 78.56
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 82.41
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 82.59
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 81.9
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 81.62
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 81.12
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 82.67
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 83.17
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 83.45  

US Vice President Pence, during a weeklong tour of Asia, will flesh out the US administration's strategy for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Pence is r

US Vice President Pence, during a weeklong tour of Asia, will flesh out the US administration's strategy for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Pence is reportedly considering speaking to Japanese Prime Minister Abe about the trade agreement.Key quotes (Source: LiveSquawk) Hopes US and China have a positive relationship Trump's absence at Asia Summits is not a snub

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish AUD/USD Overview:     Last Price: 0.7231     Daily change: 3.0 pips     Daily change: 0.0415%     Daily Open: 0.7228

The AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7234, up 0.10 percent on the day, having clocked a high of 0.7303 last week.On the hourly chart, the pair has charted a falling wedge pattern. A breakout would be confirmed if the current hourly candle closes above 0.7232 and would mean that the pullback has likely ended at 0.7214 and could yield a re-test of 0.7303.The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is biased bullish above 50.00 and the 5-day and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending north. Hence, a falling wedge breakout looks likely.The bullish pressure would weaken if the spot closes below the ascending 10-day EMA, currently at 0.6690.Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish AUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7231
    Daily change: 3.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0415%
    Daily Open: 0.7228
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7141
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7263
    Daily SMA200: 0.747
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7272
    Daily Low: 0.7218
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7239
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7252
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7207
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7186
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7153
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.726
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7293
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7314  

Gold has been underwater of late, falling from the early November highs at $1,243 and landing al the way down through the 38.2% Fibo to score a recent

Gold is stationary in Asia on Monday as the markets consolidate with a US holiday to get through before key events such as US CPI will hit the slate.Gold has been suffering on higher US rates and the recent Fed comments which have been supporting the upside bias in the dollar. Gold has been underwater of late, falling from the early November highs at $1,243 and landing al the way down through the 38.2% Fibo to score a recent low of $1,206.89. On Friday, the safe haven metal could not even rally as US stocks came off, following the lead from another weak performance in China and as a result, the precious metal suffered a fourth loss in five sessions.  Gold is unwinding the speculative longs that had increased leading into the FOMC meeting and Midterm elections during shaky grounds for equities and the prospects of gridlock. However, the Fed's affirmation that it will be sticking to its preset hiking path has prompted the market to reverse its positioning which ultimately helped the greenback to strengthen and challenged gold prices. "With tail-risks out of the way, we would not be surprised to see gold length resume its downward trajectory for now," analysts at TD Securities argued.US CPI outlookFor the week ahead, there will be a focus on US CPI. Analysts at Nomura are expecting a steady 0.231% (2.192% y-o-y) m-o-m in core CPI inflation in October: "Idiosyncratic declines in some components of the core CPI in September will likely revert in October. In particular, used vehicle prices declined 3.0% m-o-m in September and contributed to the downside surprise in core CPI inflation relative to our forecast. Most other core CPI components were in line with our expectations and support our medium term inflation outlook. At the moment, we think the decline in used vehicle prices was transitory and should partially revert in October. Moreover, the notable slowdown in homeowners’ equivalent rent (HOER) in September was concentrated in the Midwest, implying that HOER inflation should pick up in October, and we expect a 0.26% m-o-m increase in rent CPI. Elsewhere, we expect a modest 0.5% m-o-m increase in lodging-away-from-home prices, a 2.9% decline in airline fare prices."Gold levelsIf bears can stay below the 50-D SMA now at 1210, having broken the 38.2% target and the 30th Oct stick's lows at $1,212, the next key target is the $1,201 50% retracement. Bulls will need to get back above the $1229 (key pivot) area that then opens $1243 (Oct. 26 high) before the $1250 (psychological level) and the July high $1,266.      

GBP/JPY M5 In recent weeks, the Guppy enjoyed a rock-steady buildup on a fresh round of Brexit hopes, but reality has come crashing back down for

The last twenty-fours of trading activity, spanning last Friday and the early Monday sessions, sees the GBP/JPY slipping steadily lower, with steady up-moves getting knocked to the downside in rapid, intraday sell-offs as market confidence shakes out at regular intervals, fueled largely by market hopes of Brexit deals failing to mesh well with reality.GBP/JPY M5In recent weeks, the Guppy enjoyed a rock-steady buildup on a fresh round of Brexit hopes, but reality has come crashing back down for the Sterling, and the GBP/JPY has seen an inversion of the 50- and 200-period near-term moving averages, suggesting that further declines are waiting in the wings.GBP/JPY M30Going back over the past month, the GBP/JPY has reached a critical inflection point: a bullish rebound off of the key 200-hour moving average from the 147.00 handle looks to be in the works, fueled by a confluence of the key 38.2% Fibo retracement level, but sellers will be looking to reload their positions on a continued move lower if the Guppy can't maintain long-side momentum above 149.50.GBP/JPY H1GBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 147.44
    Daily change: -14 pips
    Daily change: -0.0949%
    Daily Open: 147.58
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.37
    Daily SMA50: 146.72
    Daily SMA100: 145.81
    Daily SMA200: 147.4
Levels:
    Daily High: 149.08
    Daily Low: 147.5
    Weekly High: 149.5
    Weekly Low: 146.86
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 148.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 148.48
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 147.03
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 146.48
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 145.45
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 148.61
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 149.63
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 150.19  

Premier Li Keqiang is out on the wires stating that China is committed to opening up the economy and needs to increase support for private and small a

Premier Li Keqiang is out on the wires stating that China is committed to opening up the economy and needs to increase support for private and small and micro enterprises.  “The demand for loans from enterprises is very strong, but the problem is that private enterprises with demand, especially small and micro enterprises, cannot borrow money, and banks not only have strict conditions for granting loans, but also are afraid of taking risks and responsibility,” said Li during the State Council executive meeting, according to Asia Times.         

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today is data-light but noted the week ahead's key Tomorrow has German CPI, UK unemployment, Germany’s ZEW survey,

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today is data-light but noted the week ahead's key Tomorrow has German CPI, UK unemployment, Germany’s ZEW survey, and the US NFIB survey.Key Quotes:"Wednesday has Japanese GDP and a Chinese data blast of retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment, then German Q3 GDP – which is seen -0.1% q-o-q – and UK CPI, then Eurozone Q3 GDP, expected to be as damp as the weather. We also get US CPI, and hear from the Fed’s Powell overnight. Thursday it’s Aussie jobs and UK retail sales, US retail sales, and the Philly Fed survey. Friday has Eurozone CPI, and then US industrial production. In short, a busy data week, and another five days towards the G20 showdown in Argentina…and of the stench of Goldman Sachs (in which case sell USD), or of panic (in which case buy it)?"

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9476 vs Friday's fix of 6.9560. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9476 vs Friday's fix of 6.9560. 

As noted by The Globe and Mail, Saudi Arabia is set to go ahead with plans to begin clamping down on oil production, wiping up to half a million barre

As noted by The Globe and Mail, Saudi Arabia is set to go ahead with plans to begin clamping down on oil production, wiping up to half a million barrels per day off of their outflows in an effort to put a floor underneath crude's recent declines.Key quotes"Saudi Arabia plans to reduce oil supply to world markets by 0.5 million barrels per day in December, its energy minister said on Sunday, as the OPEC power faces uncertain prospects in its attempts to persuade other producers to agree a coordinated output cut. Khalid al-Falih told reporters that Saudi Aramco’s customer crude oil nominations would fall by 500,000 bpd in December versus November due to seasonal lower demand. The cut represents a reduction in global oil supply of about 0.5 per cent. Saudi Arabia has increased output by just about 1 million bpd this year under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and other consuming countries to help balance the market to compensate for lower supplies from Iran due to U.S. sanctions. But since Iran’s customers were given generous waivers to continue buying crude, concerns grew about market oversupply and oil prices fell to below US$70 per barrel on Friday from US$85 a barrel in October. “We have been increasing production in response to demand,” Falih told reporters in Abu Dhabi ahead of a joint OPEC, non-OPEC market monitoring committee meeting."

The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6736 – up 0.15 percent on the day – having clocked a low of 0.6723 earlier today. The ANZ's New Zealand Mo

The NZD/USD defended key support at 0.6726 (23.6% Fib R of 0.6424/0.6819) a few minutes before press time, despite the drop in the ANZ's New Zealand monthly inflation gauge fell in October.The details of the ANZ's report indicate that inflation is broadening.The gains could be limited by growing Fed-RBNZ policy divergence.The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6736 – up 0.15 percent on the day – having clocked a low of 0.6723 earlier today. The ANZ's New Zealand Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% m/m (up 2.9% y/y) in October, kicking Q4 off on a softer note. The details of the report released a few minutes before press time, however, show that price pressures are broadening. That may have helped the Kiwi bounce off the 23.6% Fib retracement level of 0.6726. The gains, however, could be limited or short-lived as the ANZ's inflation data is unlikely to force the RBNZ to adopt a hawkish bias. The Fed, meanwhile, reaffirmed its tightening stance last week, setting the stage for a 25 basis point rate hike in December and three more rate hikes in 2019. Simply put, the divergence between the Fed and the RBNZ is set to grow further. So, it seems safe to say that for the greenback, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. Even so, the NZD/USD looks north on the daily chart, having witnessed a symmetrical triangle breakout on Nov. 1.  A break above 0.6819 (Nov. 7 high) would further bolster the already bullish technical setup.NZD/USD Technical LevelsNZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.674
    Daily change: 2.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0297%
    Daily Open: 0.6738
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.66
    Daily SMA50: 0.6579
    Daily SMA100: 0.6658
    Daily SMA200: 0.6905
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6768
    Daily Low: 0.6728
    Weekly High: 0.682
    Weekly Low: 0.6632
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6743
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6752
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6721
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6704
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6681
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6761
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6784
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6801  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Model projection: 6.9505 versus 6.9329 previous (176 pi

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.9505 versus 6.9329 previous (176 pips higher; 65 pips higher from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.9399 (70 pips higher from previous fix)."

USD/JPY continues to climb from 111.38 26th Oct lows with little in the ay of setbacks as the dollar finds support on interest rate differentials. The

USD/JPY is creeping higher in the Tokyo open in a positive environment for the dollar, currently trading at 113.89 from a low of 113.81.USD/JPY bulls can target the 114.10 initial resistance.USD/JPY continues to climb from 111.38 26th Oct lows with little in the ay of setbacks as the dollar finds support on interest rate differentials. The FOMC last week fuelled another advance in the greenback, pushing the DXY back tot he 97 handle again.Markets will continue to trade election implications and equity sentimentHowever, from here on, given that there were only marginal changes at the November statement, markets will continue to trade election implications and equity sentiment for direction in the near-term.  As analysts at ING Bank have noted, the US midterms threw up some surprises, but we have a split Congress. "President Trump's legislative agenda risks being constrained as a result, which will make it harder to generate a platform that will stand him in good stead for a defence of his presidency in 2020." With eyes on the spread, the US 10-year yields are supporting the dollar vs the yen which remain elevated. However, the US 10yr treasury yield fell from 3.23% to 3.18% on Friday, only briefly buoyed by firm PPI data. With regards to the 2yr yields fell from 2.96% to 2.92%. Fed fund futures yields repriced the chance of another rate hike in December at 75% (from 80%).USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 113.85 113.40 113.00    Resistance level: 114.10 114.55 114.90Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the USD/JPY pair maintains its positive tone in the daily chart, although the upward momentum seems limited: "It develops well above a bullish 100 DMA, while technical indicators ease within positive ground. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite alike, as the 100 and 200 SMA are some 100 pips below the current level, while technical indicators hold well into positive territory but without offering directional clues, the Momentum easing modestly and the RSI flat around 60. Beyond 114.10, the pair could extend its gains up to 114.54, October monthly high, with gains beyond this last unclear at the time being."

As reported by the UK's Telegraph media outlet, the UK's ex-Brexit minister, Boris Johnson, is accusing the PM's current Brexit plans as a recipe for

As reported by the UK's Telegraph media outlet, the UK's ex-Brexit minister, Boris Johnson, is accusing the PM's current Brexit plans as a recipe for a captive UK, and Johnson continues to call for a Cabinet mutiny against Prime Minister Theresa May.Key quotes"Writing in The Telegraph, the former foreign secretary says the Prime Minister is "on the verge of total surrender" to Brussels and says her plans are a "recipe for continued strife". Urging people to "savour the full horror of this capitulation", he says Mrs May's plans for a customs union backstop are "shameful" and cannot be "conceivably" supported by any of her Cabinet. Over the weekend the EU rejected the Prime Minister's plan for an "independent mechanism" that would enable Britain to break off temporary customs arrangements with Brussels after Brexit. The deadlock will increase pressure on the Prime Minister at Cabinet tomorrow, where a final decision on Mrs May's Brexit plans is now likely to be delayed while negotiations with the EU continue. It leaves the Prime Minister struggling to secure a November summit with European leaders to sign off her Brexit plans, increasing the risk that Britain will leave without a deal.  Mr Johnson's intervention comes after the resignation last week of his brother, Jo, who said the Prime Minister's handling of Brexit represented a "failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis". The former foreign secretary says that the backstop, which will keep Britain in a customs union with the Brussels if no solution to the Irish border issue can be found, is worse than being in the EU."

Italy’s economy minister is looking to revise down the budget’s growth forecast for next year to convince the EU that Italy would not go above a defic

Italy’s economy minister is looking to revise down the budget’s growth forecast for next year to convince the EU that Italy would not go above a deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019, a source told Reuters on Sunday. In early October, Italy revised up its growth forecasts, with 2019 gross domestic product growth estimated at 1.5 percent, according to Reuters. The Commission rejected Italy’s fiscal plan for 2019 last month and may start disciplinary steps against Rome later this month.

The EUR/USD is trading near 1.1325 after taking an early-Monday plunge into near-term lows as the broader market opens the new trading week with risk

The Fiber opens the new week testing into major lows.Risk sentiment across the board is seeing a halting start to the new trading week. The EUR/USD is trading near 1.1325 after taking an early-Monday plunge into near-term lows as the broader market opens the new trading week with risk appetite notably skewed into the downside, and the 1.1300 major handle is going to be a key point of contention heading through the week. This week opens on a quiet note, and the economic calendar is all but empty for the Euro's opening sessions, and US markets enjoying a Thanksgiving long weekend, but the mid-week promises plenty of action with German and EU-wide GDP figures on Wednesday, with Eurozone inflation numbers due at the end of the week as well. Riskier FX pairs are struggling to find a foothold after getting knocked lower on the market open, fueled largely by weekend headlines that the two sides of Brexit negotiations continue to drift further apart, and self-imposed deadlines of presenting workable deals continue to slip by with no progress seen. Italy also remains a point of contention on the Euro, and Italy's current economy minister will be looking at revising Italian growth projections lower in an effort to reach middle ground with the European Commission which remains irate at Italy's spend-heavy deficit budget, but the reach across the aisle could fall on deaf ears is the commission asks Italy how they expect to close the current budget deficit with lower growth expectations.EUR/USD levels to watchOdds of a bearish continuation are on the rise, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the daily chart shows that, after reaching the 38.2% retracement of its September/October decline mid-week, the pair retraced quickly, increasing chances of a bearish breakout in the upcoming days. In the same chart, the 20 SMA acted as dynamic resistance throughout the week, now accelerating south below the larger ones and converging with the 23.6% retracement of the mentioned decline around 1.1420. The Momentum indicator stabilized within negative territory, while the RSI heads south, currently at 37, keeping the risk skewed to the downside. In the 4 hours chart, and for the shorter term, the bearish potential is also strong, as the 20 SMA changed course and now heads slower alongside with the 100 SMA in the 1.1400 area, while technical indicators lost downward strength near oversold readings at the end of the day as a result of decreasing volume, far from indicating downside exhaustion." Support levels: 1.1300 1.1265 1.1230 Resistance levels: 1.1370 1.1420 1.1460

The ANZ New Zealand Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4 percent month-on-month (up 2.9 percent year-on-year) in October, following a 0.6 percent month-on

The ANZ New Zealand Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4 percent month-on-month (up 2.9 percent year-on-year) in October, following a 0.6 percent month-on-month (2.5 percent year-on-year) rise in June. Key points16 of the 36 categories lifted in the month, which is well above the average of 10 since the Gauge’s conception – a tentative signal that, just maybe, inflation is broadening. That said, most monthly gains were small. the October Gauge suggests inflationary pressures are at least tracking sideways heading into Q4, but it’s still early days. A bounce in accommodation services in November wouldn’t come as a surprise. There was only one area of significant weakness in the Gauge – the recently-volatile accommodation services component – and the number of components to lift in the month hit an 8-year high.    

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead. Key Quotes: United States | Data preview Early indicators of manufacturing sentiment c

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead.Key Quotes:United States | Data previewEarly indicators of manufacturing sentiment could decline further in October; we expect a steady reading for core CPI month-on-month inflation. NY Fed survey of consumer expectations (Tuesday): Inflation expectations in the NY Fed’s survey remain within a steady range with both the one-year and three-year ahead expected inflation holding at 3.00% in September. Other indicators in the survey support an outlook for favorable consumer spending with elevated earnings growth expectations and a favorable evaluation of the labor market. US budget (Tuesday): October’s budget statement marks the beginning of FY19 where we expect the budget deficit to widen further after increasing markedly in FY18. Of particular interest in October will be the pattern of government defense spending as fiscal policy remains a key driver of US growth.  CPI (Wednesday): We expect a steady 0.231% (2.192% y-o-y) m-o-m in core CPI inflation in October. Idiosyncratic declines in some components of the core CPI in September will likely revert in October. In particular, used vehicle prices declined 3.0% m-o-m in September and contributed to the downside surprise in core CPI inflation relative to our forecast. Most other core CPI components were in line with our expectations and support our medium term inflation outlook. At the moment, we think the decline in used vehicle prices was transitory and should partially revert in October. Moreover, the notable slowdown in homeowners’ equivalent rent (HOER) in September was concentrated in the Midwest, implying that HOER inflation should pick up in October, and we expect a 0.26% m-o-m increase in rent CPI. Elsewhere, we expect a modest 0.5% m-o-m increase in lodging-away-from-home prices, a 2.9% decline in airline fare prices.  Among non-core components, we expect a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in the CPI for food. The CPI for energy likely rebounded considering seasonally-adjusted prices of energy components. Altogether, we expect a solid 0.352% increase in headline CPI (2.555% y-o-y). Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.965. Initial jobless claims (Thursday): The residual impact of recent inclement weather continues to show up in initial jobless claims data but we expect a continued downtrend over the medium term as the labor market remains strong. Empire State survey (Thursday): We expect the Empire State manufacturing survey index to fall to 20.0 in November after rebounding to 21.1 in October. We think concerns over logistics and trade tensions will continue to weigh on regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys although the momentum in the sector appears intact.  Philly Fed survey (Thursday): We expect the Philly Fed manufacturing survey index to fall to 21.0 in November after declining by 0.9pp to 22.2 in October, a still-healthy reading consistent with steady growth but possibly weighed down by concern over trade tensions. Import prices (Thursday): Import prices will likely hold steady in the near term as the US dollar remains elevated. Recent declines in crude oil prices will likely lead to declines in imported fuel prices and lower aggregate import prices. Excluding petroleum products, the inflation of imported ex-auto consumer goods will likely remain modest. Retail sales (Thursday): We expect a healthy 0.4% m-o-m increase in “core” retail sales in October, following a 0.5% gain in September. Consumer sentiment remains elevated despite recent stock market volatility and heightened concerns about global trade. The labor market remains strong and income gains have been steady. Considering these factors, we think personal spending momentum will remain robust in Q4. Among non-core components, sales at gasoline stations and building materials stores likely increased firmly. We expect a steady increase in receipts at autos and parts dealerships considering WardsAuto’s light vehicle sales data for October. Excluding autos and auto parts, we expect 0.6% m-o-m gain in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a 0.6% m-o-m increase.  Business inventories (Thursday): The business inventory report for September will likely reflect strong investment in inventories in Q3. The Census Bureau’s data suggest manufacturing inventories accumulation accelerated in September. Moreover, wholesale inventories picked up sharply in Q3, driven by buildup of agricultural products as well as autos. Advance data suggest retail inventories likely increased at a modest pace with a slight decline in non-auto components. Industrial production (Friday): We expect a soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in industrial production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September. The aggregate production in October was likely weighed down by a sharp pullback in autos production. Excluding autos, manufacturing sector output likely increased at a steady pace of around 0.3% in October after rising by only a modest 0.1% in September. Steady gains in exautos manufacturing output appear consistent with the healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector. The mining sector output will likely contribute steadily to aggregate output in October. Active oil and gas rig counts picked up in October, pointing to healthy drilling activity.Euro area | Data previewThe week ahead Euro area October final inflation and UK October inflation data will be in focus next week.  Germany ZEW Survey, Nov (Tuesday): We forecast a decline in the expectations component of the ZEW survey to -26.2 from -25.9 in October. The trade issues between China and the US have not yet been resolved and, in the meantime, domestic political instability continues to negatively affect confidence We think both factors have contributed in the month to lower financial analyst expectations for Germany’s economy. UK Labour market report, Sep/Oct (Tuesday): Wage growth will once again be the statistics to watch in this report. Our preferred measures relates to private sector regular pay on 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-month annualised bases. They currently range from around 3.5% to 4.5% (August), and we think are likely to remain in that vicinity in this report (September). Elsewhere, watch employment growth, which has slowed to a standstill in recent months. UK Consumer price inflation, Oct (Wednesday): We forecast an unchanged CPI print of 2.4% and an unchanged RPI print of 3.3%. While oil prices fell in October, during the month they were, on average, higher than in September, so there should be no downside pull from this. Also, forecast errors for October have tended to be on the downside in recent years for both RPI and CPI inflation, presenting possible downside risks to consensus forecasts. Euro area Industrial Production, Sep (Wednesday): Germany and Spain have already reported industrial production data, showing that IP ex-construction decreased in the month of September. Following new emission standard rules that adversely affected car production in al EA countries, we expect EA industrial production to echo the message sent by these two countries that have already reported. We forecast a 0.5% m-o-m decrease in IP, which follows a 1.0% m-o-m increase in August.  UK Producer price inflation, Oct (Wednesday): Despite the recent notable fall, oil prices rose on average from September to October. The upward impact on import prices during the month should, however, be tempered by a rise in sterling’s trade weighted index. This explains our modest +0.5% monthly forecast. As for output prices, we expect a smaller 0.1% increase (core), which would be in line with the PMI and CBI output price indicators during the month. UK Retail sales, Oct (Thursday): Anecdotal and survey evidence suggests retail sales growth has slowed in recent months. The CBI distributive trades survey softened in October, while the BRC measure of sales growth was also weaker than earlier in the year. Many high street stores seem to be struggling, although it is difficult to tell how much of this is cyclical versus structural (i.e., the rise of online shopping). However, September’s fall in the official volume series may limit how weak the October print ends up being and, as such, we forecast a flat reading for the month.Asia | Data preview Activity momentum in China likely stabilised in October; we expect central banks to leave rates unchanged in Indonesia and Thailand but hike by 25bp in the Philippines. China: We expect industrial production growth to remain unchanged from September, at 5.8% y-o-y in October, despite its recent downtrend, partially because this October has one more working day than last October. Retail sales growth will likely slow in October on weaker domestic demand. Although we expect a further slowdown in property investment, September’s investment data suggest that infrastructure investment may have reached its nadir (its year-on-year growth rate rose to -2.0% in September from - 5.9%) and manufacturing investment remained robust (16.3% y-o-y in September); these factors likely offset the weakness in property investment. We expect year-to-date fixed asset investment growth to remain stable after an uptick in September, as the policy easing seems to be starting to have an effect."

Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM): 0.3% (October)

Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 3% to 2.9% in October

  AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7218 and has started out the week on the back foot following a risk-off day on Friday following the FOMC statem

 AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7218 and has started out the week on the back foot following a risk-off day on Friday following the FOMC statement on Thursday. The week ahead for Aussie traders is jam-packed,  including Q3 wages and Oct employment, but the key releases are all Tuesday-Thursday.AUD/USD fell from the 0.73 handle following the FOMC statement which puts the pair back on the longer term track to the downside as investors get behind the dollar once again. The divergence between the FOMC and RBA is in play following a disappointing RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. The pair then tried to steady just below the mid-point of the 0.72 handle but slipped further as US stocks continued to bleed following a risk-off session in Asia and Europe.What's in store this week for Aussie traders? Analysts at ING Bank noted that AUD/USD has managed to hold onto its gains quite well this week, despite a resurgent US dollar: "Challenges this week will come from China, where Tuesday’s October Industrial Production data and the ever-present risk of USD/CNY breaking above 7.00 pose downside risks to the AUD. Our bearish call on the month is largely on the back of a strong USD and a view that the prospects of a US: China trade deal will have evaporated by early December.  Also look out for Australia October jobs data on Wednesday. AUD/USD has recently broken out of a well-defined bear channel. This warns that any near-term losses may stall in the 0.7130/0.7160 area. If this is the case, then a subsequent break above the 0.7300 could deliver substantial follow-through. Just a word of caution here!  AUD/USD levelsSupport levels: 0.7200 0.7170 0.7135.   Resistance levels: 0.7250 0.7280 0.7315.Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that technical readings in the daily chart are far from losing the positive tone: "The 20 DMA maintains a firm bullish slope well below the current level, while technical indicators have barely retreated from overbought readings, holding well into positive ground with limited downward strength. Furthermore, the pair remains above the 61.8% retracement of its September/October decline at around 0.7200 now the immediate support. Below the level, bears will have more chances while above 0.7250 the scale will lean in favor of bulls. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the bearish case is firmer, as the pair broke below its 20 SMA, now losing directional strength above the current level, while technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes well into negative ground."        

The GBP/USD is trading into 1.2930 in the early hours of the new week's markets, and the Sterling saw a bearish gap from last Friday's close of 1.2972

Hopes for a Brexit deal are beginning to look more baseless as the clock unwinds.EU-UK divorce talks appear to be unraveling heading into a thin start for the week.The GBP/USD is trading into 1.2930 in the early hours of the new week's markets, and the Sterling saw a bearish gap from last Friday's close of 1.2972 to 1.2910 as Brexit headlines over the weekend took a nose-dive into the fearful end of things, with odds of a last-minute deal ahead of November's hypothetical deadline dead in the water. Over the weekend: Brexit divergence continues to widen The UK's Prime Minister, Theresa May, was forced to cancel a last-minute cabinet meeting over Brexit negotations as Brexiteers within the PM's own Conservative party continue to wreak havoc, and EU leaders in Brussels are equally as unimpressed with the UK PM's efforts, and last week's hopes for a last-minute deal are evaporating quickly at the new week's outset, leaving the Cable in a bearish lurch for Monday. Monday will see a sparsely-populated economic calendar for the GBP/USD, with no meaningful data slated for the UK, and the upcoming US session will likewise see thin volumes with US money markets out for the Thanksgiving long weekend, but Tuesday sees UK Average Earnings in the pipe, and Cable traders will be hoping for an early positive twist to the typical flow of headlines before the key economic data comes in for a landing.GBP/USD levels to watchAccording to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, the Cable could be primed for a technical bullish correction, but long-side action will be limited with the major pair stuck to the mats at key lows: "the daily chat shows that the pair is currently struggling with a mild bearish 20 DMA, as the Momentum indicator hovers around its mid-line and the RSI extends its decline into negative ground, all of which leans the risk toward the downside without confirming it just yet. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish strength is even clearer, as the 20 SMA gains downward traction over 100 pips above the current level, while the pair settled below a directionless 200 EMA. Technical indicators in this last time-frame hold near oversold readings as the pair closed a handful of pips below its weekly low of 1.2957, now the immediate support." Support levels: 1.2955 1.2920 1.2880     Resistance levels:  1.3000 1.3040 1.3085

Broad-market hopes for a last-minute Hail Mary Brexit clincher are set to wane this week, with the usual stream of rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines ove

Broad-market hopes for a last-minute Hail Mary Brexit clincher are set to wane this week, with the usual stream of rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend slamming the needle firmly to the 'fear' side of the gauge, with multiple media outlets reporting that UK ministers are threatening to quit (again), UK PM May has pulled the plug on a last-minute Brexit cabinet meeting, and last week's hope of a Friday deal outline, which transformed into hopes for a Tuesday deal outline, are getting flushed as well.Key highlights(Via Reuters): Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides. May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland. Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc. A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: “This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal.”(Via Sky News): UK MP Liam Fox, in an interview with Sky News: "We may or may not be able to get that agreement, in which case we would have to leave the European Union without one. But we are not going to get bounced into another referendum, so that those who lost the previous one can try to apply continued membership of the European Union to the people of Britain in perpetuity."(Via the UK Independent): Theresa May has been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal, after fresh opposition at home and abroad plunged her timetable into turmoil. The prime minister shelved the meeting, pencilled in for Monday, slamming on the brakes after fierce resistance in her cabinet and in Brussels threatened to derail the path to an agreement. A government source conceded that an outline deal might not be ready by Tuesday – making it increasingly unlikely that a special EU summit to sign it off can be held in November, as hoped.  That would leave the UK having to ramp up hugely expensive no-deal preparations and in danger of being unable to pass all necessary legislation before the Brexit deadline next March. At home, Ms May faced an open challenge to her plans from Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, who vowed the UK “cannot be held against its will” by the backstop plan for the Irish border. Ms Leadsom became the second cabinet minister to insist on a unilateral power to escape being bound in the EU customs union – something explicitly ruled out by Brussels.  

In a market wrap, analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that the risk off returned to close last week following Thursday’s FOMC statement

In a market wrap, analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that the risk off returned to close last week following Thursday’s FOMC statement.Key Quotes:"Markets are pricing in a 25bp hike in December, with data flow suggesting pipeline inflation pressures are building. The S&P was down 0.9%, led by technology as soft earnings reports weighed. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%. In Europe, the DAX was unchanged, while the CAC 40 and FTSE fell 0.5%. US treasury yields fell (10-year to 3.18%) and USD and JPY were bid. GBP underperformed on Brexit headlines. Oil continued to push lower, with WTI falling 0.9% to be down 21% from its October high. Supply-side surprises appear to be the main culprit, but concern that global demand is slowing may also be creeping into markets and weighing on risk appetite more broadly."Going up:"US October PPI came in stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m (2.9% y/y), with core at 0.5% m/m (2.6% y/y). That was the biggest gain since September 2012. The data support the latest FOMC statement that further gradual rate rises are required. Meanwhile, November preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 98.3, little changed from October's 98.6. At 2.6%, 5-10 year inflation expectations rose towards the upper end of the range that’s prevailed since June 2016 (last: 2.4%)."Solid:"The 0.6% q/q rise in Q3 UK GDP was supported by broad based growth. Household spending rose 0.5% q/q, services rose 0.4% and business investment rose a surprising strong 1.2% given all the Brexit uncertainty. Exports rose 2.7% q/q. Growth is at potential (1.5% y/y) and consistent with core inflation settling around the 2% target (currently 1.9% y/y). The BoE will remain vigilant in this climate especially as wages (3.1% y/y) are getting traction amid growing reports of skilled shortages."Regression: "French September industrial production data disappointed, falling 1.8% m/m, with transport leading declines, down 3.8% m/m and weakness evident elsewhere (ie mining down 1.8%). Meanwhile, October manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 (last: 52.5) implying no near-term recovery. The data releases highlight downside risks to next month's updated macroeconomic projections from the ECB and very benign forward guidance."
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