The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose over 400 points bottom-to-top on Friday, bolstered into a fresh record high of 42,837 after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures cooled in September.
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 479 to 481
Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.48%, above expectations (0.4%) in September
Recent weeks have been punctuated by a number of positive developments for the U.S.
Notwithstanding concerns surrounding a wider Middle East war, which could disrupt oil flows from the region, China stimulus disappointment and OPEC+ producer plans to bring barrels back in the coming months have put the crude oil market at risk of a sharp correction.
EUR/GBP edges lower on Friday as traders sell the Euro (EUR) due to the increasing likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) making more aggressive interest rate cuts in the future.
The Pound Sterling recovers some ground against the greenback as a ‘hammer’ emerges on the daily chart and rises above 1.3050, registering gains of over 0.15%.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gyrates in a tight range near 1.3060 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday's North American session.
Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $31.50 in Friday’s New York session.
Consumer confidence in the US weakened slightly in early October, with the preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index edging lower to 68.9 from 70.1 in September.
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3% (October) vs previous 3.1%
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (70.8) in October: Actual (68.9)
The USD/CAD pair gives up some of its intraday gains after posting a fresh two-month high to near 1.3780 in Friday’s New York session.
The Unemployment Rate in Canada edged lower to 6.5% in September from 6.6% in August, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.
A slew of (significantly) weaker-than-expected PMI surveys in the Eurozone in the past two months has injected fresh uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery, Rabobank’s economists Elwin de Groot and Maartje Wijffelaars note.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 1.8% on a yearly basis in September, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday.
United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in September
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September
Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (27K) in September: Actual (46.7K)
Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €16B to €14.4B in August
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (1.6%) in September
Canada Participation Rate down to 64.9% in September from previous 65.1%
Canada Building Permits (MoM) came in at -7%, below expectations (-5.5%) in August
Canada Unemployment Rate came in at 6.5% below forecasts (6.7%) in September
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 2.8%, above forecasts (2.7%) in September
United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) fell from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in September
UK data showed in line with expectations GDP growth in August (+0.2% m/m and the same on the 3m/3m measure), Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR/JPY rises up and almost touches the top of its nine-week range before treading water indecisively as traders await the next catalyst that will decide its future direction.
The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes on Friday after a very solid rally this week, with the rate differential becoming the main driver. The question going forward for next week will be if this upward move in US Treasury rates was a bit overdone, seeing the US
India Cumulative Industrial Output: 4.2% (August) vs previous 5.2%
India Industrial Output dipped from previous 4.8% to -0.1% in August
India Manufacturing Output declined to 1% in August from previous 4.6%
Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (0.5%) in August
The Euro (EUR) is a little firmer on the session but effectively holding within yesterday’s spot range in quiet trade, Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The USD is consolidating this week’s gains after yesterday’s data reports interrupted its ascent, with the surprise rise in weekly claims offsetting and overshadowing slightly higher than expected CPI data, Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
AUD/USD rose up to the top of its range during the summer in a three-wave ABC pattern (see chart) and then formed a bearish Tweezer Top Japanese candlestick reversal pattern on the weekly chart (orange-shaded circled on chart).
Data has rapidly moved against the ECB's September messaging, and we and the market now expect a rate cut at the October meeting.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a little softer on the session so far but losses are holding near yesterday’s low in the upper 1.37s, Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
India FX Reserves, USD: $701.18B (September 30) vs previous $704.89B
The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.0650/7.0920.
Crude Oil is back to square one for this week, stabilizing around Monday’s opening price near $75.00.
Yesterday's inflation figures in the region brought surprises in both directions.
The US Dollar (USD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 148.10/149.40.
The USD/CAD pair extends its winning spell for the eighth trading day on Friday.
Canada releases jobs figures for September today, and the consensus is centred around a solid 27k employment print, with unemployment inching up from 6.6% to 6.7%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6070 and 0.6120.
USD/CAD decline stalls near August low of 1.3440, which resulted in a short-term up move, Societe Generale’s FX analysts note.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers to trade back in the $2,630s on Friday as subpar United States (US) jobs data cements expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at their November policy meeting.
EUR/USD has stabilised in the 1.09-1.10 range, but continues to face downside risks as a USD:EUR two-year swap rate gap at 130bp is consistent with sub-1.09 levels, and Middle East tensions can easily add to the negatives for the pro-cyclical, oil-sensitive EUR.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6715/0.6770.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell after RBNZ cut rate by 50bp.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range, probably between 1.3020 and 1.3100.
The latest batch of US data has sent contrasting signals to the Federal Reserve and to the markets.
The USD/CHF pair wobbles near the immediate support of 0.8560 in Friday’s European session.
EUR/USD moves slightly higher to near 1.0950 on Friday after a sharp recovery from the two-month low of 1.0900 recorded on Thursday.
Instead of weakening further, the Euro (EUR) is more likely to trade in a range between 1.0910 and 1.0960.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
The key takeaway from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes of its 17/18 Sep 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was that, while all participants agreed that it was appropriate to ease the stance of monetary policy in September, but not everyone was on board with the decision of a 50-bps rate cut, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
At next week's ECB meeting on 17 October we expect the ECB to deliver yet another rate cut of 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.25%.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and trades around the $31.15 region during the first half of the European session on Friday, nearly unchanged for the day.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) edges higher in its most-traded pairs on Friday, carrying momentum over from its recovery on the previous day, when it found a floor and rose following the release of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) meeting minutes.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 11: Following Thursday's volatile action, markets seems to have stabilized to begin the last trading day of the week.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) moves lower against its major peers in Friday’s London session after the release of the UK data.
Turkey Current Account Balance increased to $4.324B in August from previous $0.566B
The EUR/GBP cross trades on a stronger note around 0.8380 on Friday during the early European trading hours.
United Kingdom Total Trade Balance: £-0.955B (August) vs £-7.514B
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance came in at £-15.06B, above expectations (£-19.3B) in August
United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in August: Actual (0.5%)
The UK economy expanded by 0.2% over the month in August, having stagnated for the second consecutive month in July, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.
United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in August
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) above expectations (-0.4%) in August: Actual (-0.3%)
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.6%) in September
United Kingdom Trade Balance; non-EU increased to £-4.947B in August from previous £-7.5B
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0%) in September
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in September
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.1%) in September
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in August: Actual (1.1%)
United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -1.6% below forecasts (-0.5%) in August
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in August
FX option expiries for Oct 11 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
The EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive around 1.0935 during the early European session on Friday.
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 1.3020 area or a one-month low and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's mixed US macro data-inspired recovery from the $2,600 neighborhood or a nearly three-week low and gains positive traction for the second straight day on Friday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Friday amid the firmer US Dollar (USD).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up and oscillate in a narrow band, around the $75.00/barrel mark during the Asian session on Friday.
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (3.5%) in September
The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Friday, with the USD/JPY pair holding just below its highest level since early August touched the previous day.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground on Friday. Nonetheless, the lower odds of aggressive interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the hotter-than-expected inflation data might lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the pair.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.0731, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0742 and 7.0737 Reuters estimates.
South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3.25%)
The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.6095 during the early Asian session on Friday.
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) remains at 1.3% in September
The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to around 1.3745 during the early Asian session on Friday.
EUR/USD managed to maintain a finger grip on chart paper north of the 1.9000 handle.
GPB/USD roiled on Thursday, battling just north of the 1.3000 handle before trimming 0.1% for the day.
The Australian Dollar snaps five straight days of losses and climbs over 0.35% as data showed that inflation in the United States (US) was higher than foreseen, but a soft jobs report tempered the Greenback’s advance.
New Zealand Business NZ PMI climbed from previous 45.8 to 46.9 in September