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Forex News Timeline

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Analysts at ANZ are expecting an OCR cut by the RBNZ, even as the central bank has adopted a cautious, neutral tone but continues to signal eventual r

Analysts at ANZ are expecting an OCR cut by the RBNZ, even as the central bank has adopted a cautious, neutral tone but continues to signal eventual rate hikes.Key Quotes“Market pricing will likely ebb and flow along with the data, particularly given volatility emanating from offshore at present. But ultimately, we expect that a more challenging domestic and global environment will eventually spur the RBNZ into action.” “A lower OCR and a more cautious Fed are expected to cap long-end yields, but nonetheless we expect recent outperformance of the long end to subside somewhat. As the market prices a lower OCR, this will weigh on the NZD (along with a challenging backdrop for risk currencies). We expect NZD/USD to reach 0.61 by year end.”

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will change its stance to "neutral" and could cut interest rates in June at the latest, according to a Reuters poll of

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will change its stance to "neutral" and could cut interest rates in June at the latest, according to a Reuters poll of economists.  A month ago, economists predicted rate hike cycle would begin next quarter. The outlook, however, has flipped following RBI Governor Urjit Patel's sudden resignation on Dec. 10. Key points (Source: Reuters) RBI to keep repo rate on hold at 6.5 percent in Feb, change policy stance to 'neutral'.  RB to cut repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) by mid-year to 6.25 percent vs the previous forecast of a 25 bps rate hike.  India government 2018/19 fiscal deficit to be 3.5 percent of GDP; slightly higher than the government's target of 3.3 percent.  Indian economy to grow 7.3 percent in FY 2019/20 vs the previous forecast of 7.6 percent.  Uncertainty around the national election outcome is the biggest risk to the Indian economy. 

Japan Coincident Index came in at 102.9 below forecasts (103) in November

Japan Leading Economic Index below forecasts (99.3) in November: Actual (99.1)

Analysts at NAB, point out that the Australian housing market sentiment has ended the year on a very weak note falling to new Survey lows, according t

Analysts at NAB, point out that the Australian housing market sentiment has ended the year on a very weak note falling to new Survey lows, according to property professionals.Key Quotes“The NAB Residential Property Index fell to a new survey low in the final quarter of the year as house prices continued to fall across most of the country.” “Overall, the index was down 11 points to -20 in Q4 2018 (-9 in Q3) and now sits well below its long-term average level (+12).”  “Confidence levels (expectations) also drop to below average levels suggesting market momentum will probably fall further.” “NAB’s view is that house prices are likely to decline further over the next year or so - seeing peak-to-trough declines of around 15% in Melbourne and Sydney. Perth is likely to see some further small declines, while the remaining states will remain largely flat.”

Mark McCormick, North American Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, is recommending to enter a long AUDNZD position (spot reference: 1.0520), for the

Mark McCormick, North American Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, is recommending to enter a long AUDNZD position (spot reference: 1.0520), for the target price of 1.0950, while maintaining a stop-loss of 1.0300.Key QuotesRationaleGiven the price action, it is time to determine whether the next move is a sustainable break below 1.05 or a good buying opportunity to position for a retest of 1.10. We choose the latter. Front-end spreads, for instance, argue the cross should be trading above 1.08 on an 18m look back window. That also dovetails with the signal from relative yield curves (2s10s). This pair also cares a lot about terms of trade. The correlation has broken down a bit in the short-run but a longer time series history also implies a level around 1.09. Our China-based factor model also puts AUDNZD around 1.06, which could start to benefit if growth and trade tensions start to improve. Finally, our implied-CTA model also implies that the market is leaning short AUDNZD.”

According to analysts at ANZ, New Zealand economy’s annual growth with a 3-handle over the next couple of years looks a stretch after the economy has

According to analysts at ANZ, New Zealand economy’s annual growth with a 3-handle over the next couple of years looks a stretch after the economy has had a good run in recent past.Key Quotes“Momentum has slowed, and it’s likely this process has further to run as the drivers of growth continue to become less synchronised. Adding to the list of headwinds, confirmed and probable changes to bank capital requirements suggest financial conditions will gradually tighten.” “All up, slowing growth in the context of inflation that’s still shy of the RBNZ’s target midpoint means the case for a little extra monetary stimulus will become evident. We expect the RBNZ’s next move will be a cut.”

The GBP/USD pair extended its rally into a fourth day in Thursday’s Asian trading and hit fresh two-month tops of 1.3096 amid a potential Brexit delay

Bulls consolidate the rally to 2-month tops, focus on Brexit news. Technical set up points to further upside bias, a break above 1.3100 inevitable.The GBP/USD pair extended its rally into a fourth day in Thursday’s Asian trading and hit fresh two-month tops of 1.3096 amid a potential Brexit delay that continues to underpin the sentiment around the pound. Meanwhile, the reports that 20 Remain ministers secretly met in Parliament to discuss plans to stop a no-deal Brexit fuelled fresh demand for the GBP across the board. However, the bulls lacked follow-through momentum, sending the rates back near 1.3075 region, as markets trade cautiously amid looming US-China trade worries and ahead of the Senate votes on the re-opening of the government shutdown later today. On Wednesday, the Cable rallied nearly 140 pips to 1.3081, its highest levels since November. “The catalyst for Sterling's rally was a new amendment coming from Yvette Cooper, which already gathered support from MPs from different parties, aimed to buy the kingdom sometime to prepare an alternative plan if PM May's deal fails to pass the  Houses,” Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst noted. Meanwhile, markets digest the latest comments by the BOE Chief Economist Haldane heading into a data-quiet UK docket. Hence, the focus remains on the no deal Brexit-related headlines and the US macro news for fresh trading incentives.GBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3072
    Today Daily change: 0.0000 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.00%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3072
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2807
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2894
    Daily SMA200: 1.3073
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3081
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2941
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3002
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2668
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3028
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2995
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2982
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2891
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2842
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3122
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3172
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3262  

The Aussie dollar is being offered as a mortgage rate hike by a major Australian bank is seen accentuating the housing market slowdown and force the R

AUD hit a 20-day low soon before press time, having hit a high of 0.7167 earlier today. NAB's mortgage rate hike has strengthened the case for a cut in official rates. The Aussie dollar is being offered as a mortgage rate hike by a major Australian bank is seen accentuating the housing market slowdown and force the RBA to cut rates.  As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7112, having clocked a low of 0.7107 - a level last seen on Jan. 4 -  soon before press time.  The Australian currency ran into offers near 0.7150 earlier today after the National Bank of Australia announced that from next Thursday it will raise its standard variable rate for owner-occupiers repaying principal and interest by 0.12 percentage points to 5.36 percent. The move comes months after Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ imposed out-of-cycle hikes.  Looking ahead, the pair may find acceptance below 0.71 o rising odds of RBA rate cut. Potential risk aversion in equities would only add to the bearish pressures around the AUD. AUD/USD Technical Levels
  AUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.711
    Today Daily change: -0.0032 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.45%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7142
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7125
    Daily SMA50: 0.7179
    Daily SMA100: 0.717
    Daily SMA200: 0.7308
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7145
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7116
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7134
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7127
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7124
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7105
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7153
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7163
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7182  

Analysts at NAB suggest that the Australians are facing a very different property market, as the house prices continued to moderate after 5 years of s

Analysts at NAB suggest that the Australians are facing a very different property market, as the house prices continued to moderate after 5 years of solid growth.Key Quotes“NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster, said “most consumers think now is a good time to renovate their home or buy to live in, but with prices falling across most of the country, not surprisingly they don’t think it’s a good time to sell their home or investment property”.” “Over the next 12 months Australians are still most positive about renovating their home and buying a property to live in. But, it’s also clear consumers are far more uncertain about the future - around 4 in 10 said they simply didn’t know if it would be a good time to buy, sell, renovate or take out a mortgage.” “On average, consumers expect price falls of -2.1% over the next 12 months (against -2.4% forecast by property professionals in NAB’s latest Residential Property Survey).”  

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the Westpac’s forecast for the Australia’s December quarter headline CPI is 0.3%qtr, which will see th

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the Westpac’s forecast for the Australia’s December quarter headline CPI is 0.3%qtr, which will see the annual pace ease to 1.5%yr from 1.9%yr.Key Quotes“Westpac’s forecast also takes the two quarter annualised pace down to 1.4%yr from 1.6%yr.” “The December quarter is a seasonally soft quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of +0.2ppt. However, it was only just back in December 2016 that that quarter’s seasonal factor was actually a positive. As such we caution there may be significant revisions to the December quarter seasonal factors.” “Core inflation is forecast to print 0.3%qtr (0.32% at two decimal places) moderating the annual pace to 1.6%yr from 1.7%yr. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.30% and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.34%. The two quarter annualised pace of core inflation eases back to a very modest 1.3%yr from 1.5%yr putting the momentum in inflation well below the RBA’s target band.” “Core inflation is forecast to be below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs hold back overall inflationary pressures. Overlay a competitive deflationary pressure in consumer goods so it is hard to see core inflation breaking much higher any time soon.”

Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, points out that the Australia’s unemployment rate ended 2018 at 5%, close to fu

Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, points out that the Australia’s unemployment rate ended 2018 at 5%, close to full employment with the employment data rising by +22k (TD +30k, mkt +18k) via part-time (+25k).Key Quotes“The participation rate eased a tick to 65.6%.” “More importantly for the RBA and wage pressures, the underutilisation ratio eased back to the low of 13.3%, after starting 2018 at 14.2%.” “Over 2018, 269k jobs were created, with 60% in full-time employment. The unemployment rate eased from 5.6% to 5.0% while the participation rate fluctuated tightly around 65.6%.” “The RBA in November expected the unemployment rate to be around 5% through 2019, before declining to 4¾% over 2020. We don't expect a change to these projections at the February 8 Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).”

The US President Trump was reported by Reuters, as saying that he will do the State of the Union address when the government shutdown is over. It’s w

The US President Trump was reported by Reuters, as saying that he will do the State of the Union address when the government shutdown is over. It’s worth noting that the shutdown enters the 34th day this Thursday, with the focus now on a pair of Senate votes that could end the government shutdown. The voting is around 1930 GMT.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1388, having hit a three-week low of 1.1336 earlier this week. The currency pair could rise above 1.14 ahea

EUR/USD is showing signs of life ahead of the ECBThe European Central Bank (ECB) is sound dovish, acknowledge deterioration in growth. Markets seem to have priced in the potential dovish turn by the ECB. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1388, having hit a three-week low of 1.1336 earlier this week. The currency pair could rise above 1.14 ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, the flag breakout on the 15-minute chart indicates.  The central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged today and acknowledge the recent slowdown in the biggest economies of Eurozone - Germany, France, and Italy.  The central bank could also downgrade the bank's economic assessment, arguing that growth risks are now tilted to the downside. That would imply a dovish turn, something which markets seem to have anticipated and priced well in advance.  Moreover, the rate markets pushed back expectations of the deposit rate hike to mid-2020 in the first week of this month. Further, EUR/USD has dropped more than 200 pips in the last three weeks.  As a result, the downside in the EUR could be limited, unless Draghi uses strong words while describing downside risks to the economy, bolstering hopes of policy easing.  Also, the common currency will likely fly high if Draghi refrains from downgrading the risk assessment. The central bank head may do that as downgrading the risk assets may raise hopes of monetary stimulus, complicating the process of policy normalization. EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1389
    Today Daily change: 0.0007 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1382
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.1391
    Daily SMA100: 1.1456
    Daily SMA200: 1.1589
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1396
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1351
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1368
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1357
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1331
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1312
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1402
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1447

The GBP/USD pair closed well above the psychological hurdle of 1.30 yesterday, strengthening the case for a near-term rally to 1.3175 (Nov. 7 high). T

The GBP/USD pair closed well above the psychological hurdle of 1.30 yesterday, strengthening the case for a near-term rally to 1.3175 (Nov. 7 high). The intraday charts, however, indicate a pullback could be in the offing before a rally to 1.3175 unfolds. Hourly chartThe RSI on the hourly chart has diverged in favor of the bears and could soon find acceptance below the ascending trendline.  The RSI on the 4-hour chart is also reporting overbought conditions above 70.00.  The pair, therefore, could consolidate or fall back to the rising trendline on the hourly chart, currently at 1.3030 before building on the breakout above 1.30 seen yesterday.Trend: bullish, but minor correction likely GBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3074
    Today Daily change: 0.0002 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.02%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3072
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2807
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2894
    Daily SMA200: 1.3073
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3081
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2941
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3002
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2668
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3028
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2995
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2982
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2891
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2842
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3122
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3172
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3262  

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee is out on the wires stating that the concerns over economic slowdown have risen but believes a rapid deceleration is

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee is out on the wires stating that the concerns over economic slowdown have risen but believes a rapid deceleration is unlikely this year. Key quoteThe current policy rate level is not hindering growth. 

The bearish view put forward by the range breakdown last Friday would gain credence if the yellow metal confirms flag breakdown with a move below $1,2

The bearish view put forward by the range breakdown last Friday would gain credence if the yellow metal confirms flag breakdown with a move below $1,279.4-hour chartAs seen above, the yellow metal has charted a bear flag on the 4-hour chart; a bearish continuation pattern; which often accelerates the preceding bearish move. Put simply, a drop below $1,279 (flag support) would open up downside toward $1.261 (target as per the measured move method, that is, pole height subtracted by breakout price). Notably, the flag breakdown could happen soon as the yellow metal is on the defensive, having witnessed a contracting triangle breakdown earlier this month.Trend: bearish XAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1283.56
    Today Daily change: 0.44 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 1283.12
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1285.78
    Daily SMA50: 1256.99
    Daily SMA100: 1235.46
    Daily SMA200: 1228.62
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1286.52
    Previous Daily Low: 1278.7
    Previous Weekly High: 1295.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 1276.2
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1281.69
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1283.53
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1279.04
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1274.96
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1271.22
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1286.86
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1290.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1294.68  

Bank of Korea Governor Lee is out on the wires stating that while Korea's potential growth rate continues to fall, a rapid economic slowdown is unlike

Bank of Korea Governor Lee is out on the wires stating that while Korea's potential growth rate continues to fall, a rapid economic slowdown is unlikely this year.  The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent earlier today.Key quotes2019 exports will still show growth in terms if volume.  Time not right to consider further monetary easing.  A downturn in memory chips industry will negatively affect the economy Experts say semiconduction demand to improve in the second half.  2019 CPI inflation seen at 1.4 percent vs the previous estimate of 1.7 percent 2019 GDP growth is seen at 2.6 percent vs the initial estimate of 2.7 percent. 

Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan told delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos late-Wednesday, China’s economy can maintain sustainable econom

Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan told delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos late-Wednesday, China’s economy can maintain sustainable economic growth rate, despite global uncertainties. Key Quotes: “There will be a lot of uncertainties in 2019, but China’s economy will continue to achieve sustainable growth.” “Speed does matter. But what really matters is the quality and efficiency of our economic development.” “Now, we do face a lot of imbalances. What we need to do is to make the pie bigger” instead of bickering over how to divide it. “We need to uphold multilateralism, engage in extensive dialogue and cooperation based on mutual respect and mutual trust, and jointly build a system of rules for technology.” 

The National Australia Bank's (NAB) decision to hike lending rates hasn't gone down well with the AUD traders.  The Australian lender will lift rates

Aussie is being offered in response to NAB's decision to hike home loan rates. Mortgage rate hikes by major lenders could force the RBA to cut rates this year. The National Australia Bank's (NAB) decision to hike lending rates hasn't gone down well with the AUD traders.  The Australian lender will lift rates by 12 to 16 basis points from Jan. 31.  Investors likely believe that mortgage rate hikes by major lenders could only accentuate the housing market slowdown and force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates later this year.  That is evident from AUD's negative reaction to NAB news. The AUD/JPY pair ran into offers bear 78.40 and hit a session low of 78.06 soon before press time. Notably, the pair has erased gains seen following the release of an upbeat Aussie jobs data earlier today. AUD/JPY Technical LevelsAUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.12
    Today Daily change: -0.18 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.23%
    Today Daily Open: 78.3
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.72
    Daily SMA50: 79.91
    Daily SMA100: 80.32
    Daily SMA200: 81.26
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 78.42
    Previous Daily Low: 77.83
    Previous Weekly High: 79.11
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.19
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.06
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 77.95
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 77.59
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.36
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 78.54
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 78.77
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.13  

One of the Australian top 4 big national banks, the National Australia Bank (NAB), hiked the home loan rates on Thursday. The news sent the Aussie ba

One of the Australian top 4 big national banks, the National Australia Bank (NAB), hiked the home loan rates on Thursday. The news sent the Aussie back into the red zone near 0.7135 region, reversing the post-Australian jobs led rally to 0.7167 tops.Key Details:NAB raises mortgage rates up by 12 to 16 basis points from January 31st. Says rate rise is due to the sustained increase in funding costs.

The GBP/JPY pair could test the key rising trendline support of 142.80, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength i

The GBP/JPY pair could test the key rising trendline support of 142.80, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). Hourly chartThe back-to-back candles with long upper shadows signal bullish exhaustion. A similar message is being echoed by the previous 4-hour doji candle.  Add to that the lower high/bearish divergence on the 14-hour RSI and the prospects of a drop to 142.80 (trendline support) appear high. Trend: pullback likely GBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 143.21
    Today Daily change: -0.08 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 143.29
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 139.7
    Daily SMA50: 141.91
    Daily SMA100: 144.43
    Daily SMA200: 145.38
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 143.57
    Previous Daily Low: 141.52
    Previous Weekly High: 142.22
    Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
    Previous Monthly High: 145.52
    Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 142.79
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 142.3
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 142.02
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.74
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 139.97
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 144.07
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 144.84
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 146.12  

Bank of Korea sees economic growth missing expectations and price pressures, as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) to move around 1 percent

Bank of Korea sees economic growth missing expectations and price pressures, as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) to move around 1 percent for a while and in mid 1 percent from the second half of this year.  The central bank left benchmark interest rates steady earlier today, reinforcing the consensus that rates will remain at the current level for some time, courtesy of worsening trade conditions. 

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 5-day MA of 109.58, having hit a high of 110.00.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept key policy tools unch

USD/JPY failed to clear 110.00 yesterday, possibly due to 10-year yield surrendering early gains. The pair is currently trading around the 5-day moving average (MA) of 109.58.Focus on Senate vote to end the government shutdownThe USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 5-day MA of 109.58, having hit a high of 110.00.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept key policy tools unchanged yesterday and revised lower its inflation and growth forecast, reinforcing the view that the central bank is unlikely to scale back the unprecedented stimulus any time soon. Further, the US 10-year treasury yield ticked higher to 2.77 percent.  USD/JPY, therefore, jumped to 110.00 yesterday. The psychological hurdle, however, proved a tough nut to crack, possibly due to the pullback in Treasury yields. The 10-year yield surrendered gains and ended largely unchanged on the day at 2.73 percent. Focus on Senate voteThe Senate is expected to vote today on a Republican measure incorporating Trump's $5.7 billion demand for  US-Mexico border wall and a short term spending bill from the Democrats that would help reopen the government until February 8th. Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management believes the vote will likely fail as neither party has a majority and both resist the other's proposals. The USD will likely find bids if the vote succeeds in ending the 34-day-long government shutdown. USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.53
    Today Daily change: -0.08 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.07%
    Today Daily Open: 109.61
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.09
    Daily SMA50: 111.29
    Daily SMA100: 112.01
    Daily SMA200: 111.23
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 110
    Previous Daily Low: 109.32
    Previous Weekly High: 109.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.74
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.58
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.29
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 108.97
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 108.61
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.97
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 110.33
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.65          
 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the AUD/USD pair over the next 12 months, citing risks skewed to the downside. Key Quotes: “AUD to

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the AUD/USD pair over the next 12 months, citing risks skewed to the downside.Key Quotes:“AUD to 0.67 cents in Q2, end year at 0.71. Markets are currently pricing in about a 50 percent probability of an RBA rate cut over the next 12 months, fairly reflecting the economic weakness. Under these dynamics, we see further Australian dollar downside."

At an event hosted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) on Thursday, the UK Finance Minister/ Chancellor Phillip Hammond will urge the busin

At an event hosted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) on Thursday, the UK Finance Minister/ Chancellor Phillip Hammond will urge the business leaders at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland to continue to invest in the country after Brexit. Hammond is expected to say: “Britain is a great place to do business. And we are determined, as we leave the EU, to make sure it remains that way.” Reuters reports that Hammond is also flagging up £100 million in government funding for 1,000 new doctoral research places focused on artificial intelligence for use in public hospitals, voice-recognition software and pollution monitoring.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.7802 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7969. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.7802 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7969. 

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent as expected.  The status quo decision comes two days after the official dat

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent as expected.  The status quo decision comes two days after the official data showed South Korea's GDP growth slowed to its weakest in six years at 2.7 percent in 2018.
 

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1.75%)

AUD/USD is showing signs of a sustained correction at this juncture, fuelled by a softer greenback and Fed hike prospects as well as positive domestic

AUD/USD has rallied from 0.7137 to a high of 0.7163 on positive revisions and headline data. However, Aussie fate is more in the hands of offshore economic performance and geopolitical tensions. AUD/USD is showing signs of a sustained correction at this juncture, fuelled by a softer greenback and Fed hike prospects as well as positive domestic jobs data. We have had a series of good news from the jobs sector and today's release underpins the market's strength. The seasonally adjusted data shows that the employment change arrived at 21.6k vs the expected 18.0k, but a far cry from the prior 39.0k that had been revised higher from 37.0k. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, which is very positive, below the 5.1% prior ad 5.1% expected. Full-time employment has gained traction,  -3.0K vs prior was -7.3K, revised from -6.4K and part-time employment change is also looking promising, 24.6K vs prior +46.3K, revised from +43.4K. And above all, the participation rate is sold at 65.6%, marginally lower than prior and expected at 65.7%. AUD/USD bulls to find a hard time aheadHowever, wages are a sticking point and retail sales was also a disaster in Dec, worst on record and not any better in Jan. Markets will now look to the December quarter headline CPI is 0.3%qtr which is a seasonally soft quarter. And, of course, Core inflation is critical. "Core inflation is forecast to be below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs hold back overall inflationary pressures. Overlay a competitive deflationary pressure in consumer goods so it is hard to see core inflation breaking much higher any time soon," analysts at Westpac argued.  A less hawkish position, (not dovish), of the Fed and market speculation that other G10 central banks such as the RBA and the RBNZ may be more likely to cut rather than hike rates this year will likely keep a lid on the Aussie, especially in light of China's economic performance and geopolitical uncertainties that will keep the pressures on EM-and commodity-FX. AUD/USD levelsSupport levels: 0.7105 0.7070 0.7030Resistance levels: 0.7155 0.7180 0.7210Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the immediate now comes as the 0.7180 level. "Seems unlikely the pair could recover and sustain the 0.7200 level. To the downside, a strong support comes at 0.7070, with large stops suspected below it. If those get triggered, the pair will likely approach the 0.7000 region in the upcoming sessions."          

According to the latest Reuters poll of more than 100 economists conducted during Jan 16-23, the longest-ever US government shutdown is likely to have

According to the latest Reuters poll of more than 100 economists conducted during Jan 16-23, the longest-ever US government shutdown is likely to have a big hit on the US economic growth in the first quarter of 2019, but the risk of a recession remains steady.Key Findings:“The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months held steady from last month at 20 percent. The chance of a recession in the next two years was also steady at a median 40 percent. Nearly 60 percent of about 50 economists who answered an additional question said the shutdown will have a significant impact on first quarter gross domestic product growth. When asked how much of an impact the shutdown would have on U.S. GDP for this quarter, the median was for a 0.3 percentage point trim. But forecasts ranged between 0.1 and 1.3 percentage points. Analysts expected the U.S. economy to grow at a 2.1 percent annualized pace this quarter, down from 2.3 percent forecast last month, followed by 2.3 percent in the second quarter and then slowing to 1.9 percent by the end of the year. The latest survey still predicted two rate hikes in 2019, in line with the December poll and the Fed’s own dot-plots. However, economists now expect the Fed to take rates higher in the second quarter instead of the first quarter, as predicted in the previous poll. But nearly one-third of 105 economists predicted the U.S. central bank would either hike rates only once or keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent in 2019. That was notably higher than the 11 of 101 respondents in the previous poll. Traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures expect no rate hikes in 2019.”

The AUD/JPY cross jumped 24 pips to a session high of 78.47 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an above-forecast headline employment n

A better-than-expected Aussie jobs report seems to have put a bid under the AUD/JPY pair. The Aussie jobless rate dipped to 5 percent in December. The employment change number printed well above forecast. Full-time jobs dropped by 3K in December. The AUD/JPY cross jumped 24 pips to a session high of 78.47 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an above-forecast headline employment numbers for December.  The economy added 21.6K jobs in December, following an upwardly revised 39K additions in November. Notably, the December figure has bettered the estimate of 16.5K by a big margin.  Further, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in November.  The details, however, reveal that the quality of job growth was not impressive. Moreover, the full-time job fell by 3K in December, having dropped by -6.4K in the previous month.  Even so, the Aussie is trading on the offensive, which indicates the markets are currently focusing on the impressive headline figure.  Looking ahead, the AUD/JPY cross could find acceptance above 78.50 if the equities pick up a bid sending the anti-risk JPY lower across the board. AUD/JPY Technical LevelsAUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.26
    Today Daily change: -0.04 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.05%
    Today Daily Open: 78.3
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.72
    Daily SMA50: 79.91
    Daily SMA100: 80.32
    Daily SMA200: 81.26
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 78.42
    Previous Daily Low: 77.83
    Previous Weekly High: 79.11
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.19
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.06
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 77.95
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 77.59
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.36
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 78.54
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 78.77
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.13  

Australia Part-time employment declined to 24.6K in December from previous 43.4K

Australia Part-time employment declined to 24K in December from previous 43.4K

Australian unemployment rate dropped to 5.0 percent in December, even as the economy added 21,600 jobs, the latest data published by the Australia B

The Australian unemployment rate dropped to 5.0 percent in December, even as the economy added 21,600 jobs, the latest data published by the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed this Thursday. The markets were expecting a job addition of 16,500.  Employment for the previous month was 37,000 addition. Meanwhile, full-time jobs came in at -3,000 compared to -6,400 seen in November. The part-time employment rose 24,600 versus 43,400 last. The participation rate slipped to 65.6% in the reported month versus 65.7% previous.Dec Key Points (Source: ABS)Employment increased 23,100 to 12,711,600. Full-time employment increased 11,800 to 8,697,600 and part-time employment increased 11,200 to 4,014,000. Unemployment decreased 3,200 to 670,900. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation rate remained steady at 65.6%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 1.1 million hours to 1759.9 million hours.Seasonally adjusted estimates (Monthly change)Employment increased 21,600 to 12,714,100. Full-time employment decreased 3,000 to 8,678,800 and part-time employment increased 24,600 to 4,035,300. Unemployment decreased 14,100 to 666,700. Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points (pts) to 5.0%. Participation rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 65.6%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 1.3 million hours to 1758.9 million hours.

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI down to 50 in January from previous 52.6

Australia Participation Rate came in at 65.6%, below expectations (65.7%) in November

Australia Fulltime employment climbed from previous -6.4K to -3K in December

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. registered at 5%, below expectations (5.1%) in December

Australia Employment Change s.a. above forecasts (16.5K) in December: Actual (21.6K)

The EUR/USD pair may find acceptance above 1.14, having witnessed a bull flag breakout on the 15-minute chart a few minutes before press time. 15-min

The EUR/USD pair may find acceptance above 1.14, having witnessed a bull flag breakout on the 15-minute chart a few minutes before press time.15-minute chartFlag breakouts usually end up accelerating preceding bullish moves. As a result, there is scope for a rally to 1.1426 (target as per the measured move method, that is, pole height added to breakout price).Daily chartThe pair closed above 1.1374 (Tuesday's high) yesterday, validating the bear exhaustion signaled by Tuesday's "long-tailed" candle. Indeed, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi is widely expected to sound dovish. The recent drop in EUR/USD from 1.1570to 1.1336 likely indicates that markets have already priced in the dovish turn.  The timing of the first deposit rate hike was pushed back to mid-2020 earlier this month.Trend: mildly bullish EUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1386
    Today Daily change: 0.0004 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.04%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1382
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.1391
    Daily SMA100: 1.1456
    Daily SMA200: 1.1589
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1396
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1351
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1368
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1357
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1331
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1312
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1402
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1421
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1447  

The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its first monetary policy decision later this Thursday at 1245 GMT, with the analysts at Citi expec

The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its first monetary policy decision later this Thursday at 1245 GMT, with the analysts at Citi expecting no changes to its monetary policy settings.Key Quotes:“Expects no changes to policy rates, forward guidance nor any new measures. ECB likely to acknowledge weaker growth and inflation outlook, and to downgrade its risk assessment to "tilted to the downside".”

Overview of Australian jobs report (Feb) Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today, due 0030GMT. However, the data

Overview of Australian jobs report (Feb)Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today, due 0030GMT. However, the data may not stack up to be so positive all around as the recent run of late, but a tick down in the unemployment rate could give AUD a boost and labour data continues to be an important positive signal on the economy for the RBA.  Australia’s Dec employment report is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Job creation reportedly jumped to 37k in Nov, boosting the 6mth annualized pace to a rapid 2.9%. Sample rotation seems to have played a role though. Westpac looks for some payback, with a modest 5k rise in total employment (consensus 18k). Our forecast for the unemployment rate however is in line with consensus, holding steady at 5.1%, thanks to a pullback in the participation rate after the unexpected jump in Nov.How could the data affect AUD/USD?AUD/USD is in a corrective phase and the flow has turned positive with a break of the last swing high on the hourly chart, but far from positive on the daily outlook at this juncture while still struggling to gain traction below the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2018 decline. The price is supported on the 21-D SMA 0.7118, but if that gives, bears will be back in control looking for a test of 0.71 the figure, and considering the angst over Sino/US trade and various market strife, its not a far stretch for a look in at the key support structure down at 0.7000/20. For the upside, "Beyond this pullback, the market targets the September and early November highs at 0.7302/14 and the 200-day ma at 0.7306, where it is expected to struggle," analysts at Commerzbank argued. Key notes:Australia: Data to confirm trend employment growth was strong over 2018 - NABAbout Aussie jobs data:The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).  

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) kicks-off Thursday’s Asian session on the front foot amid fresh optimism over the US-China trade talks that boosted the app

OPEC output cuts, potential Venezuela sanctions and risk-on underpin. Attention turns towards US EIA crude stockpiles for near-term trading opportunities.  WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) kicks-off Thursday’s Asian session on the front foot amid fresh optimism over the US-China trade talks that boosted the appetite towards the higher-yielding oil while the US stocks also managed to close into the green zone. The risk-on sentiment offset the recent bearish API crude stockpiles data, leaving the black gold somewhat underpinned. The latest API data released showed that the US crude inventories increased 6.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 42,000 barrels, Reuters reports. Meanwhile, markets digest the latest reports of potential US sanctions on Venezuela’s crude oil exports, which could make the oil markets tighter, with the OPEC output cuts already underway. On Wednesday, oil prices slipped nearly 1% on the reports that the European Union (EU) is considering to circumvent US trade sanctions against Iran while weaker US gasoline prices further added to the weight on the US oil. Markets now look forward to the release of the EIA crude stockpiles data due later today at for fresh trading impetus.WTI Technical Levels WTI Overview:
    Today Last Price: 52.54
    Today Daily change: 9 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.17%
    Today Daily Open: 52.45
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 50.44
    Daily SMA50: 50.71
    Daily SMA100: 59.2
    Daily SMA200: 63.88
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 53.7
    Previous Daily Low: 51.91
    Previous Weekly High: 54.17
    Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
    Previous Monthly High: 54.68
    Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 52.59
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.02
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 51.67
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 50.9
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 49.88
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 53.46
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 54.48
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 55.25  

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks up to ¥-66.7B in January 18 from previous ¥-428.2B

Japan Foreign bond investment declined to ¥822.9B in January 18 from previous ¥2209.9B

Analysts at National Australian Bank (NAB) offers a detailed preview of what to expect from Thursday’s Australian labor market report due to be releas

Analysts at National Australian Bank (NAB) offers a detailed preview of what to expect from Thursday’s Australian labor market report due to be released at 0030 GMT.Key Quotes:“Labour force data continues to be an important positive signal on the economy. Recent concerns around retail sales have likely shifted the RBA's focus towards consumer spending. Barring any sharp changes to the unemployment rate in the data next week, the RBA is on track for its expectation of a 5% average unemployment rate in the December quarter. As such, the Bank will likely continue to expect a gradual tightening in the labor market. Expect data to confirm trend employment growth was strong over 2018. There is some slight risk of a 5% u/u result.”

The AUD/USD pair is seen consolidating the latest uptick to near 0.7150 region over the last hours, as the bulls await the Australian employment numbe

US-China trade optimism lifts the Aussie alongside the Wall Street. Main focus on the Australian employment figures for a fresh directional move. The AUD/USD pair is seen consolidating the latest uptick to near 0.7150 region over the last hours, as the bulls await the Australian employment numbers for the next push higher. The overnight recovery in the Aussie can be mainly attributed to the turnaround in the risk sentiment, as the Wall Street managed to reclaim the green territory amid renewed US-China trade optimism that sent the safe-haven US dollar broadly lower. The US President Trump’s comments in the US last session, citing that the Trade negotiations are doing well with China, offered a fresh lift to the market sentiment. Subsequently, the USD index fell sharply to just ahead of the 96 handle before recovering to 96.15, where it now wavers. However, further upside in the spot appears limited as the bulls switch to a wait-and-see mode heading into the key Australian jobs report due at 0030 GMT. The December jobs data is expected to show 16.5k jobs addition in the economy vs. a 37.0k increase seen last while the jobless rate is likely to hold steady at 5.1%. Further, mixed Australian Markit PMI reports combined with the declines in oil and gold prices also adds to the weight on the commodity-currency, the AUD, keeping the prices in check.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7142
    Today Daily change: 24 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.34%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7118
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7121
    Daily SMA50: 0.7181
    Daily SMA100: 0.7171
    Daily SMA200: 0.7311
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7162
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7115
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7133
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7144
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7102
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7085
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7055
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7149
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7179
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7196  

NZD/USD extended its gains yesterday following the CPI data result and with risk on markets overnight, the kiwi outperformed.  "Concerns about the Gov

NZD/USD holds steady in early Asia, as the top performer following the CPI result day prior. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6785, up from the US session low of 0.6777, supported by the 200-1hr SMA. NZD/USD extended its gains yesterday following the CPI data result and with risk on markets overnight, the kiwi outperformed.  "Concerns about the Government shutdown are also starting to weigh on US markets, adding to the lift. Stronger CPI will temper caution from the RBNZ somewhat, but we expect dovishness and a lower kiwi in time. For now, eyes return to global developments and the risk environment – we expect it to remain challenging," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  For the day ahead, one major risk for markets comes with the ECB in the European session for its first meeting of the year. Downside risks are a significant concern and we are unlikely to see a change in guidance nor policy. Instead, traders might be more inclined to prepare for today's jobs data from Australia. Aussie jobs is next major riskAnalysts at Westpac explained that Job creation reportedly jumped to 37k in Nov, boosting the 6mth annualized pace to a rapid 2.9%. "Sample rotation seems to have played a role though. Westpac looks for some payback, with a modest 5k rise in total employment (consensus 18k). Our forecast for the unemployment rate, however, is in line with consensus, holding steady at 5.1%, thanks to a pullback in the participation rate after the unexpected jump in Nov."NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650 Resistance 0.6860The price is now testing through the 4hr 200 SMA following a break of the 21-D SMA located at 0.6743 yesterday with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low as a hard support line. Bulls can target a break to 0.6848 at this juncture being the prior swing high.  On a switch up, a break of the 21-D SMA sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo. However, on the upside, 0.6780 guards a run to 0.6800/60 territory. 

DXY daily chart  The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bull trend above 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Bears have momentarily retaken the 50 SMA

DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bull trend above 200-day simple moving average (SMA).Bears have momentarily retaken the 50 SMA.As anticipated yesterday, the bears took control of the market and brought DXY almost to the 96.00 bear target.DXY 4-hour chartThe market rejected the 200 SMA and it is now testing the 50 SMA.DXY 30-minute chartBears broke below 96.30 support and the 200 SMA suggesting bearish momentum.When 96.00 figure get broken to the downside, the market should continue its decline towards 95.70 bear target. Resistance to the upside is seen at the 95.70 and 96.50 level.Additional key levelsDollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.14
    Today Daily change: -19 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.20%
    Today Daily Open: 96.33
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.14
    Daily SMA50: 96.62
    Daily SMA100: 96.09
    Daily SMA200: 95.09
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.49
    Previous Daily Low: 96.21
    Previous Weekly High: 96.4
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.47
    Previous Monthly High: 97.71
    Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.32
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.38
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.2
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.06
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.92
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.48
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.62
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.76  

US stocks were on the up into the close on Wednesday, having spent the major part of the day on the defensive on mixed feelings relating to geopolitic

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average took the spotlight and ended higher around 170 points or 0.7%.The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.2%.Nasdaq Composite managed to scrimp just less than a 0.1% gain. US stocks were on the up into the close on Wednesday, having spent the major part of the day on the defensive on mixed feelings relating to geopolitical tensions and the global growth outlook. However, investor's risk apatite started to build due to solid corporate earnings with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade talks. IBM Corp. and Procter & Gamble Co. were stealing the limelight due to their solid earing reports.   In other news, and in respect to the US government shutdown, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wouldn't authorize President Donald Trump to give his State of the Union speech in the chamber. Also, investors are keeping a close eye on developments over Venezuela political turmoil. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had officially recognized Juan Guaido, the new head of Venezuela’s National Assembly, as interim president after the assembly declared Maduro illegitimate. Oil prices are going to be a major theme.DJIA levelsSupport levels: 24215 24020 23797 Resistance levels: 24670 24857 25052 From a technical standpoint for the DJIA, the 50% Fibo is a strong confluence support level and target of which the index has yet to break still. However, we have a hanging man on the weekly sticks and a doji on the daily sticks, followed by a bearish close the prior day and a neutral close on Wednesday lacking upside conviction. A continuation of the downside in the index will target 9th Jan swing high at 24025.

In an interview with the Daily Mail, the Bank of England (BOE) Chief Economist Andy Haldane spoke about the Brexit deal and the central bank’s rate hi

In an interview with the Daily Mail, the Bank of England (BOE) Chief Economist Andy Haldane spoke about the Brexit deal and the central bank’s rate hike plans. Haldane noted: "If the economy continues to tick along, as we expect, then we might expect some further limited and gradual rises." But the Bank will respond flexibly to any downturn. A brexit deal would reduce uncertainty, lead to more business investment.

The Financial Times (FT) quoted the European Union (EU) diplomats, as saying that “the European Commission is bringing the case in the European Court

The Financial Times (FT) quoted the European Union (EU) diplomats, as saying that “the European Commission is bringing the case in the European Court of Justice just over two months before Britain is due to leave the EU, potentially without agreeing to an exit deal.” “However, the withdrawal treaty that Theresa May has brokered with Brussels means the UK would have to abide by ECJ rulings in cases launched while it was a member or during a 21-month transition period,” the diplomats added.

The UK’s Daily Telegraph carried a story late-Wednesday, citing how early 20 ministers have been secretly meeting in Parliament to discuss plans to st

The UK’s Daily Telegraph carried a story late-Wednesday, citing how early 20 ministers have been secretly meeting in Parliament to discuss plans to stop a no-deal Brexit.Additional Details:“The group of ministers, which includes five members of the Cabinet, has held discussions on the best way to avoid the economic damage of a no deal Brexit. One member of the group jokingly referred to it as the "hairshirt club" because there is no "pizza or alcohol" at the meetings. The group last met on Tuesday last week for discussions on an amendment tabled by Yvette Cooper, a senior Labour MP, to take no deal off the table by extending Article 50.”
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