Forex News Timeline

Thursday, April 24, 2025

The United States told Japan that it cannot give Japan special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, NHK said citing multiple Japanese governments.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The United States told Japan that it cannot give Japan special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, NHK said citing multiple Japanese governments.Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that the US does not have specific currency targets in mind as part of bilateral trade talks with Japan. This comment came in ahead of an expected meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato this week.Market reaction  At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.21% on the day to trade at 143.13.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) increased to 3.1% in March from previous 3%

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥705.6B in April 18 from previous ¥1043.7B

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.1335 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Mitigating concerns over potential tariff threats by US President Donald Trump exerts some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD).  

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Mitigating concerns over potential tariff threats by US President Donald Trump exerts some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD).  According to a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book report on Wednesday, businesses dealing with the early stages of Trump’s tariffs are looking for ways to pass increasing costs onto consumers. Companies reported receiving alerts from suppliers about increased prices, and they looked to find ways not to absorb the increases while noting uncertainty over the ability to pass them along to customers.At the beginning of the month, Trump imposed a baseline import tax of 10% or more on dozens of nations, but then unexpectedly paused the taxes for 90 days to let countries negotiate lower rates. However, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy and concerns over the economic slowdown in the US could drag the Greenback lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD. Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting last week. During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that US tariffs on EU goods, which had increased from an average of 3% to 13%, were already harming the outlook for the European economy. Meanwhile, the ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging for growth. The dovish remarks from the ECB policymakers might weigh on the shared currency in the near term. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) below expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.1%)

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) below expectations (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.2%)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Wednesday that conditions still support ongoing reductions in the central bank's balance sheet. Hammack added that she believes some active management of market liquidity via Fed interventions is acceptable to her, per Reuters. 

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Fed's balance sheet has shrunk from $9T to $6.8T since QT began in 2022.

Money market liquidity still appears abundant.

Supported Fed’s recent slowdown in balance sheet drawdown.

Some volatility in overnight markets is not a bad thing.

Sees possible cases for return to Fed repos depending on market conditions.

There are costs for keeping the Fed’s balance sheet too large.

Supports work to strengthen standing repo facility.

Costs of too-large balance sheet include market risk-taking.

Does not comment on economic outlook.Market reaction At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.21% lower on the day to trade at 99.68.  Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that a 25% tariff imposed on cars imported from Canada to the United States could go up, per Reuters. 

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All we're doing is we're saying.  

We don’t want your cars … we want to make our own. 

Working on a deal with Canada. 

Warned that the existing 25% tariff on Canadian car imports could be raised. 

Pushing his interest to bolster U.S. auto production and reduce dependence on foreign-made vehicles. Market reaction  At the press time, the USD/CAD pair is down 0.05% on the day to trade at 1.3875.   Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI remains at 68 in May

The AUD/JPY pair was seen around the 91.00 zone in Wednesday’s session, staging a modest intraday advance ahead of the Asian session. Despite the bounce from earlier lows, the pair retains a bearish overall tone, capped by key moving averages and a sluggish momentum backdrop.

AUD/JPY trades near the 91.00 zone after bouncing within Wednesday’s range.The broader trend remains bearish amid pressure from longer-term moving averages.Key resistance is seen near the 91.20–91.80 zone, with support near 90.70.The AUD/JPY pair was seen around the 91.00 zone in Wednesday’s session, staging a modest intraday advance ahead of the Asian session. Despite the bounce from earlier lows, the pair retains a bearish overall tone, capped by key moving averages and a sluggish momentum backdrop. Technical indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index hovering around neutral territory, the MACD suggesting upside potential, and moving averages still tilting south. Price action remains confined to the middle of today’s daily range, which points to indecision in the near term.From a technical perspective, the pair is gaining some ground but lacks the strength to break decisively higher. The RSI is neutral around the 47 mark, while the Stochastic %K and Commodity Channel Index also print neutral readings, reinforcing the lack of clear direction in short-term momentum. The MACD, however, offers a mild bullish signal, hinting at the possibility of further upside attempts.Despite this, the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, exerting resistance from above. Notably, the 30-day EMA and SMA, seen near the 91.80–92.20 region, act as dynamic barriers capping recent gains and validating the bearish bias.Immediate support lies in the 90.70–90.60 range, which has held earlier dips. Should sellers regain control, a break below this zone could expose deeper losses. On the upside, resistance clusters around 91.20, 91.25, and 91.85 — levels that coincide with key averages and recent swing highs.Overall, while AUD/JPY managed to claw back some ground during Wednesday’s trade, the prevailing trend remains bearish unless a firm break above the 91.80 zone materializes. Traders should watch for confirmation in the coming sessions as the pair continues to oscillate within a narrowing range.
Daily chart

The NZDUSD pair held steady near the 0.5900 mark on Wednesday, posting a marginal daily gain as traders positioned ahead of the Asian session. The pair continues to consolidate in a tight range after recent upward momentum, suggesting a pause rather than a reversal.

NZD/USD trades around the 0.5900 zone after a quiet Wednesday European session.Mixed momentum signals but moving averages reinforce the bullish tone.Support seen at 0.5930 and 0.5908; resistance stands at 0.5969.The NZDUSD pair held steady near the 0.5900 mark on Wednesday, posting a marginal daily gain as traders positioned ahead of the Asian session. The pair continues to consolidate in a tight range after recent upward momentum, suggesting a pause rather than a reversal.From a technical standpoint, the outlook remains broadly constructive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index hovers around 62, signaling neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index near 26 highlights a modest trend strength without strong conviction. On the downside, the Stochastic RSI Fast suggests overbought conditions and flashes a mild sell signal.Despite the mixed short-term oscillators, the moving average setup is clearly bullish. The 20-day simple moving average at 0.5800, alongside the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.5713 and 0.5886 respectively, all point upward. Additional short-term support is backed by the 10-day EMA at 0.5908 and the 10-day SMA at 0.5930.Key support levels are aligned at 0.5930, 0.5908, and 0.5886. Resistance, meanwhile, is seen at 0.5969, which could cap further upside in the near term unless momentum builds decisively. For now, the pair trades within a tight band, retaining a bullish tilt as long as it holds above the 0.5880 area.
Daily chart

The USD/JPY pair trades near the 143.00 mark on Wednesday, up over 1.2% on the day, extending its rebound from midweek lows. The Greenback’s gains are driven by improving risk appetite and signs that US-China trade tensions could ease.

USD/JPY jumps 1.24% to reclaim 143.00 as risk sentiment improves.DXY recovery stalls near 99.50 following weak PMI and tariff remarks.Technical indicators remain bearish despite intraday momentum.The USD/JPY pair trades near the 143.00 mark on Wednesday, up over 1.2% on the day, extending its rebound from midweek lows. The Greenback’s gains are driven by improving risk appetite and signs that US-China trade tensions could ease. Aided by US President Donald Trump’s reassurance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain in his post and by remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting tariff rates are unsustainable, the US Dollar (USD) staged a recovery from its three-year lows.However, the underlying tone remains cautious. The S&P Global Composite PMI for April fell to 51.2 from 53.5, confirming slowing business momentum. The Services PMI dropped sharply to 51.4 from 54.4, while the Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 50.7. The Fed’s Beige Book echoed those concerns, noting slowing wage growth and persistent inflation due to tariff-driven input cost pressures. These reports reaffirm investor doubts about the economy’s strength, especially as the Fed balances rising inflation with waning activity.Markets initially welcomed Bessent’s comments and the White House’s potential openness to reducing tariffs. However, equities gave back early gains, and the DXY failed to hold above 99.50, suggesting that the Greenback’s upside remains fragile.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY remains bearish despite today’s rally. The pair is trading near the top of its daily range (141.45–143.49), but indicators remain soft. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 41.21, and the MACD prints a sell signal. The Bull Bear Power at -2.356 and Commodity Channel Index at -64.788 are both neutral. Key moving averages also lean bearish: the 20-day SMA (145.52), 100-day SMA (151.45), and 200-day SMA (150.24) are all trending lower, confirmed by the 30-day EMA (145.91) and SMA (146.77).Immediate support is located at 143.11, followed by 142.62 and 141.57. Resistance levels are seen at 144.72, 145.52, and 145.54. The pair may struggle to clear these zones unless macro conditions shift decisively in favor of the USD.With lingering doubts over the Fed’s autonomy and mixed macro data, the USD/JPY outlook remains capped, even as risk-on flows provide temporary support.
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