Forex News Timeline

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that the Bank of Thailand surprised markets with a 25bps rate cut to 1.00% at its first 2026 meeting, following earlier easing since October 2024.

Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending February 21 came in at 212K, below economists' expectations of 215K but slightly above the previous reading of 208K. Continuing Claims also declined to 1.833 million, signaling stabilization in labor market conditions.

USD/CHF recovers some ground on Thursday, rises some 0.19% as the Greenback appreciates and bounces off daily lows beneath 0.7700 on solid US data. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7743, yet it remains shy of key resistance level seen at 0.7817, the February 2 daily peak.

Federal Reserve (Fed) President of the Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, said interest rates can come down, but they don't want to front-load before inflation eases. He also added he wants the Fed to be careful in a Fox News Interview on Thursday.

ABN AMRO economists Jan-Paul van de Kerke and Max Raatjes report that stronger-than-expected Dutch GDP in Q4 2025 and solid momentum into 2026 have led them to upgrade growth forecasts.

Silver price loses its bright on Thursday, moving in the opposite direction of Gold, which remains steady as the US Dollar recovers some ground and rises. Stronger than expected US jobs data, keeps the white metal pressured in the mid-North American session.

Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen notes that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called a Danish parliamentary election for Tuesday, March 24. The current three-party government of the Social Democrats, Venstre and the Moderates is unlikely to remain unchanged.

Gold price stays firm on Thursday during the North American session as geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite the beginning of the third round of talks between the US and Iran in Geneva. Also, solid data from the US kept bullion prices contained.

AUD/USD trades with a negative bias on Thursday as broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength weighs on the Australian Dollar (AUD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7078, down 0.60%.

United States 7-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.018% to 3.79%

ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and David Havrlant say Czech fiscal policy has loosened only marginally after the election, with the public finance deficit seen at 2.2% of GDP in 2026 and risks tilted higher.

Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim highlight that the US Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling and a new US–India trade deal lower average US tariffs on Indian exports but keep trade uncertainty elevated. They warn that higher Oil prices and continued capital outflows could pressure the Rupee.

USD/JPY trades around 156.20 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day, slightly correcting after two consecutive days of gains.

UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research expects Bank of Korea to keep the base rate at 2.50% throughout 2026, after a sixth consecutive hold in February.

TD Securities analysts see Copper remaining well supported as a key beneficiary of the debasement and diversification trade. They argue that strategic stockpiling by major consumers, tariff concerns and a deep supply deficit will push Copper to new highs over the next six months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher on Thursday, gaining around 60 points or 0.11% as defensive names offset a broad semiconductor sell-off sparked by Nvidia's post-earnings decline.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.625%

Rabobank’s energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit argue that global LNG markets, especially in Europe and Asia, would be pulled higher by Oil if Strait of Hormuz flows are threatened.

EUR/USD eases on Thursday, trimming earlier intraday gains as a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighs on the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1794, retreating from the daily high of 1.1829.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note modest Japanese Yen gains versus the Dollar, noting outperformance within the G10 but only a partial recovery of recent BoJ‑related losses.

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity up to 10 in February from previous -2

The Pound Sterling retreats over 0.11% on Thursday as the Greenback remains steady as a report revealed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits was below estimates, an indication of the resilience of the labor market.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $65.40 per barrel on Thursday at the time of writing, little changed on the day, after two consecutive days of losses.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change rose from previous -144B to -52B in February 20

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) pares earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as the Greenback shrugs off its intraday weakness. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades at 1.3704, rebounding from the daily low around 1.3650.

TD Securities argues US political dynamics will shape Dollar and EMFX performance into 2026.

Standard Chartered economists Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad argue that stronger UK activity data in early 2026 raises questions about how quickly the Bank of England will cut rates.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran said that he has not seen anything worrisome yet in private credit despite some bumps, and added that prices right now seem stable, in an interview with Fox Business on Thursday.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage flags AUD/USD as another Dollar-positive rebalancing candidate. While AUD has seen mostly net buying since late January, inflows have been light and positioning less stretched than in other carry or hard-asset currencies.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner introduces a new financial impulse indicator based on the Fed's FCI-G indicator that signals how strongly the financial environment is driving or slowing down the economy.

USD/CHF trades around 0.7740 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day, snapping a series of consecutive losses. The pair is supported by a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD), although the broader backdrop remains characterized by strong demand for safe-haven assets.

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that a stable US labor market and contained inflation should keep the Federal Reserve on hold in the near term, even as growth remains firm.

GBP/JPY snaps a two-day winning streak on Thursday as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY), putting pressure on the British Pound (GBP).

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the UK Spring Statement on 3 March to be a low-key update, with few new policy measures after the Autumn Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility will refresh forecasts, with borrowing projected to undershoot and fiscal headroom to rise.

There were 212K Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending February 21, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This print followed 208K (revised from 206K) recorded in the previous week and came in slightly better than the market expectation of 215K.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that dovish-leaning Bank of Japan nominees have reinforced concerns that policy normalisation may lag, weighing on the Japanese Yen even as it remains fundamentally undervalued.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Moses Lim expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the policy repo rate at 5.25% as inflation remains contained within the 2–6% target band and growth stays above 7.4%.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.833M, below expectations (1.86M) in February 13

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 220.25K in February 20 from previous 219K

Canada Current Account registered at -0.7B above expectations (-7.7B) in 4Q

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 212K below forecasts (215K) in February 20

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament the Euro area outlook is highly uncertain, with growth supported by real incomes and investment but weighed by tariffs, a stronger Euro and geopolitics.

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights that escalating US–Iran tensions and potential military action could have far‑reaching consequences for Oil markets and broader commodities.

TD Securities commodity strategists see renewed upside in Gold prices. They argue that easier Fed policy, persistent core PCE near 3% and ongoing debasement dynamics could drive Gold toward fresh records around $5,700/oz.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that U.K. political uncertainty and potential populist outcomes may trigger short-term volatility in Gilts and GBP, but questions the longer-term impact on U.K. government paper.

EUR/GBP moves higher and trades around 0.8720 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.13% on the day.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild upside bias on Thursday but remains confined within this week’s trading range as markets stay cautious ahead of key geopolitical developments. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,174 as bulls struggle to sustain gains above the $5,200 level.

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains unchanged at 2.6% in January

Mexico Jobless Rate above forecasts (2.6%) in January: Actual (2.7%)

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee argues that recent political developments in the United States are creating downside risks for the Dollar.

The NZD/USD pair is down 0.2% to near 0.5980 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Kiwi pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) turns positive ahead of the United States (US) market opening.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has recovered slightly, pulling USD/JPY back below 156.00 after touching 156.82, but stresses that loose Bank of Japan policy remains a headwind.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes NZD/USD struggling to hold above 0.6000 as New Zealand’s ANZ business survey signals a solid GDP recovery. Despite improving activity, the RBNZ is expected to remain patient given spare capacity and a negative output gap.

TD Securities’ FX team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj, sees the US Dollar tactically supported as a safe haven on Iran-related geopolitical risks and strong US data, with USD expected to stay bid versus EUR, AUD and crowded G10 shorts.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1800 on Thursday at the time of writing, little changed on the day, after briefly reacting to the downside following comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.

Italy 10-y Bond Auction: 3.31% vs previous 3.44%

Italy 5-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.74% to 2.62%

Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 0.54% in February from previous 0.44%

Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 1.45% in February from previous 1.1%

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights a key UK by‑election as a potential catalyst for Pound and Gilts volatility. Polls show Reform UK, Greens and Labour clustered around 27–28% support, implying any winner will represent a minority of voters.

Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.36 in February from previous -0.41

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks will be crucial for Oil, with a sizeable risk premium at stake. They note that ICE Brent timespreads signal better supply, while fundamentals and OPEC+ decisions could push prices lower if tensions ease.

Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 5, below expectations (7.5) in February

Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -7.1, below expectations (-6.1) in February

Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-12.2) in February

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 98.3, below expectations (99.8) in February

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that some European central bankers, including at the ECB and Riksbank, are increasingly worried about a strong Euro as the US Dollar weakens.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts bids after a weak opening around 97.50 and turns slightly positive to near 97.75 during the European trading session on Thursday.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $87.50 per troy ounce, down 1.00% from the $88.38 it cost on Wednesday.

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.2% to -0.2% in January

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.2% in January

Portugal Business Confidence: 2.9 (February) vs previous 3

Portugal Consumer Confidence dipped from previous -14.7 to -15.3 in February

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the Pound has advanced as EUR/GBP retreats toward 0.8700, supported by firmer UK growth data and BoE Governor Bailey’s reluctance to clearly signal a March rate cut.

EUR/JPY loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 184.10 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows a consolidation phase as the currency cross remains within the horizontal channel.

ING’s Francesco Pesole says recent pressure on the Japanese Yen followed concerns from PM Takaichi about further rate hikes and the appointment of perceived dovish Bank of Japan members, though ING does not see this altering gradual policy normalisation. The bank still expects a June hike to 1.0%.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) up to 3% in January from previous 2.9%

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in her introductory statement before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament during European trading hours on Thursday that the Eurozone inflation is expected to stabilize at the central bank’s 2% t

Italy Consumer Confidence above forecasts (97.2) in February: Actual (97.4)

Italy Business Confidence dipped from previous 89.2 to 88.5 in February

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above expectations (2.9%) in January

Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) registered at 3%, below expectations (3.1%) in January

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up and trades with a mild negative bias through the first half of the European session on Thursday.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that strong Nvidia earnings and buoyant equities have supported high‑beta currencies and pressured the Dollar, with only the Japanese Yen performing worse in G10. Oil price moderation and stable geopolitical risk pricing also limit safe‑haven demand.

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that risk sentiment improved across equities and credit, but rising US Treasury yields and reduced odds of early Fed cuts weigh on Gold. The 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.05% as markets priced out H1 easing.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the S&P 500 closed within half a percent of its record high, supported by a rebound in software and broader tech stocks as AI fears eased. Nvidia, the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 all advanced, while US IG and HY spreads tightened from year‑to‑date wides.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak to the ECON Committee, but stresses that current data leave markets pricing flat ECB rates for 2026. Upcoming CPI is unlikely to shift expectations.

Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Jim Reid, point out that Euro Area sovereign spreads tightened, with Italian BTP and French OAT yields hitting multi‑month lows, while 10‑year Bund yields were steady.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains, but is still 0.2% up to near 156.00 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that risk appetite improved, but rate expectations turned less dovish, which is broadly supportive for the Dollar Index.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains steady after two days of losses, trading around $65.40 per barrel during the European hours on Thursday. Crude Oil prices hold steady amid ongoing United States (US)-Iran tensions that threaten potential supply disruptions.

China’s Commerce Ministry said during European trading hours that it is keen to implement and safeguard the consensus reached with the United States (US) on February 4.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 26:

Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) increased to 5.544M in 4Q from previous 5.532M

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $89.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal consolidates ahead of nuclear talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Geneva later in the day.

Turkey Trade Balance rose from previous -9.3B to -8.38B in January

Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed from previous 99.4 to 100.7 in January

The USD/CAD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3670 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid lingering uncertainty over US economic policies and fresh concerns regarding potential tariff increases.

GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3560 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.

The GBP/JPY pair is down 0.3% to near 211.30 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The pair corrects after a sharp upside move in the last two trading days as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes in the near term.

EUR/GBP holds positive ground near 0.8715 during the early European session on Thursday. Political risks in the United Kingdom (UK) drag the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will keep an eye on the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde speech later on Thursday. 

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that it’s difficult to determine now the desirable pace of rate hike and terminal rate. Takata added that the pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price and market developments at the time. 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades firmly against its major currency peers, revisits the three-year high against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7140 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat in its opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair continues to oscillate in a tight range near 91.00 as investors seek clarity on the United States (US) trade policy outlook.

Japan Coincident Index declined to 114.3 in December from previous 114.5

Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (110.2) in December: Actual (111)

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 5.3%, above expectations (4.5%) in January

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 16.6%, above forecasts (11%) in January

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 111.15 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) following hawkish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.

USD/CHF extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 0.7720 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair trades on the back foot as the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits from safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions.

The EUR/USD pair gains some follow-through positive traction for the second consecutive day and climbs to the 1.1830 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous day's modest pullback from the 156.80-156.85 region, or a two-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

NZD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.6000 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House’s economic policies.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's late pullback and climbs back closer to the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto weekly gains around 1.3565 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) trade policy outlook.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to around 184.35 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) on hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends its losses for the second successive session and is trading around 97.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.60 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges higher amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $90.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Precious metals, including Silver, draw renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the White House’s economic policies.

The USD/CAD pair drifts lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday and moves away from the monthly peak, touched earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3665 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though the downside seems limited ahead of the crucial US-Iran nuclear talks.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that central bank must conduct further rate hikes in gradual manner.

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9228 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9321 and 6.8605 Reuters estimate.

The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts some buyers for the second straight day on Thursday amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and trade around the 1.1815-1.1820 area during the Asian session, up 0.10% for the day.

AUD/USD remains stronger for the third successive session, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.5%)

The USD/JPY pair drifts lower to near 156.15 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid US tariff uncertainty.

Australia Private Capital Expenditure registered at 0.4% above expectations (0%) in 4Q

GBP/USD rose 0.42% on Wednesday, recovering toward 1.3600 in a session shaped by softer-than-expected UK inflation data and broad US Dollar weakness.

NZD/USD rose 0.52% on Wednesday, climbing back into the 0.6000 handle after the US Dollar came under broad selling pressure.

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 64.1 to 59.2 in February

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time. Rubio added that talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme.

TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through the 2026 Two Sessions, while not resisting Chinese Yuan strength.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that goods US inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the the basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $5,165 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/THB has bounced from key support at 31.00 after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly delivered a second consecutive 25 bps rate cut to 1.00%.

The AUD/JPY rallies over 1.20% on Wednesday, after an inflation report in Australia prompted investors to price additional rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At the time of writing, the cross trades at 111.38.

TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.