Forex News Timeline
18:40 Dow Jones Industrial Average edges higher ahead of pivotal Nvidia earnings
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose around 200 points, or 0.4%, taking a fresh run at the 49,400 region on Wednesday as equity markets traded cautiously bullish ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after the bell.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Dow gains 122 points as Wall Street positions ahead of Nvidia's fiscal Q4 results after the close.Software stocks extend Tuesday's rebound as AI disruption fears ease.PayPal rallies for a second day on reports Stripe is weighing an acquisition.Gold pulls back from record highs, dipping below $5,200 per ounce.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose around 200 points, or 0.4%, taking a fresh run at the 49,400 region on Wednesday as equity markets traded cautiously bullish ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after the bell. The S&P 500 gained 0.54% to around 6,927, while the Nasdaq Composite added roughly 1%, led by continued strength in semiconductor and software names. All three major indexes built on Tuesday's rebound from Monday's sharp selloff, though volume and conviction were muted with traders reluctant to take big directional bets before the AI bellwether's results.All eyes on Nvidia as AI spending cycle faces its biggest testNvidia (NVDA) was the undisputed focal point of the session, with the chipmaker set to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close. Wall Street consensus called for earnings per share of $1.53 on revenue of $65.7 billion, both representing roughly 68-72% year-over-year growth. The results are expected to provide the clearest read yet on demand for Nvidia's Blackwell architecture and the sustainability of the hyperscaler AI capital expenditure cycle, after Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) collectively guided to over $500 billion in 2026 capex. Nvidia shares drifted about 1% higher during the session as chip stocks broadly firmed, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) extending Tuesday's 9% surge following its multiyear, 6-gigawatt GPU deal with Meta. Polymarket traders priced in a 94.5% probability of an earnings beat heading into the print.Software rebounds as AI disruption panic fadesThe software sector continued to claw back losses from Monday's brutal selloff, which saw the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) drop nearly 5% on fears that AI-powered coding tools could undermine legacy business models. Salesforce (CRM) added to Tuesday's 4.7% gain, while ServiceNow (NOW) and cybersecurity names like Zscaler (ZS) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) also pushed higher. International Business Machines (IBM) rose 2.5%, leading Dow gainers and bouncing back from Monday's 13% plunge — its worst day since 2000 — which was triggered by Anthropic's Claude Code announcement. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said IBM's mainframe business is more resilient than the market gave it credit for. Microsoft (MSFT) gained 2.2%, with Cerity Partners' Jim Lebenthal noting the stock trades at an attractive low-20s multiple after sliding nearly 20% in 2026.PayPal surges on Stripe acquisition reportsPayPal (PYPL) continued its torrid two-day rally, climbing a cumulative 13% after Bloomberg reported that privately held payments giant Stripe is weighing an acquisition of all or parts of the company. The report followed Monday's initial news that PayPal had attracted unsolicited takeover interest from multiple potential buyers, including banks. PayPal's market cap sat around $43 billion at Tuesday's close of $47.02, a fraction of Stripe's recently disclosed $159 billion private valuation. Both companies have declined to comment, and the discussions were described as preliminary with no certainty of a deal.Trump SOTU keeps tariff outlook steady; Gold retreatsPresident Donald Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address in history on Tuesday night, but markets largely shrugged off the speech on Wednesday. Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus noted the address was light on economic policy specifics, with Trump focused on portraying the economy in a positive light rather than signaling any escalation in trade policy. This was a relief for investors still digesting the Supreme Court's ruling last week that struck down Trump's sweeping IEEPA-based tariffs, and the subsequent executive order imposing a new 10% global levy. Gold pulled back, trading around $5,120 per ounce after retreating from recent record highs, as the risk-on tone and lack of fresh tariff escalation reduced safe-haven demand. On the monetary policy front, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold rates steady at the March 18 meeting, though Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comment earlier in the week that the March decision is a "coin flip" kept the door ajar for a surprise cut from the current 3.50-3.75% target range.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
18:32 Sweden: Soft services inflation keep Riksbank cautious – Nordea
Nordea’s Torbjörn Isaksson notes that Swedish January CPIF and CPIF ex energy matched flash estimates, but services inflation surprised on the downside. Core services prices fell more than expected, raising concerns for the Riksbank.
Nordea’s Torbjörn Isaksson notes that Swedish January CPIF and CPIF ex energy matched flash estimates, but services inflation surprised on the downside. Core services prices fell more than expected, raising concerns for the Riksbank. Nordea sees the details as dovish and is likely to lower its inflation path, while still expecting the Riksbank to hold 1.75%, with a rate cut now clearly possible.Dovish details and policy implications"The main surprise on the downside was prices for services. Core services inflation (ex foreign travel and administrative set prices) declined and was lower than we had expected. Car rental plunged and prices for hotel accommodation fell too, which is seasonal.""However, the low services inflation is probably concerning for the Riksbank. Prices for goods fell, but less than expected.""All in all, our instant view is that the details are “dovish”. We will look through all details and update our inflation forecast in the coming days, but we will most likely lower the inflation path.""Our call on CPIF ex energy was below the Riksbank’s view already before the January reading. The upturn in the economy is strong, though, which is an important.""For now we keep our view that the Riksbank will stay on hold at 1.75%, but a rate cut is indeed possible."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
18:17 EUR/USD recovers as Greenback fails to sustain upside momentum
EUR/USD regains traction on Wednesday as the US Dollar’s (USD) upside momentum fades, allowing the Euro (EUR) to trim its earlier intraday losses. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1805, rebounding from the daily low near 1.1711.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.1800 as US Dollar momentum fades.Trump’s tariff move revives trade tensions, weighing on the Greenback.Eurozone inflation eases, reinforcing expectations of steady ECB monetary policy.EUR/USD regains traction on Wednesday as the US Dollar’s (USD) upside momentum fades, allowing the Euro (EUR) to trim its earlier intraday losses. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1805, rebounding from the daily low near 1.1711.The Greenback is struggling to extend its advance as persistent structural headwinds stemming from US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade rhetoric continue to weigh on investor sentiment and raise doubts about US policy credibility and fiscal stability.Trade tensions reignited after President Trump announced a 10% global tariff just hours after the US Supreme Court ruled against his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) last week. The new tariff took effect on Tuesday under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the White House indicating that a formal order is being prepared to raise the rate to 15%. In response, the European Parliament paused the ratification process for the US-EU trade deal agreed last year. The chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, Bernd Lange, said on Monday, “We want to have clarity from the US that they are respecting the deal because that’s a crucial element.”Elsewhere, reduced expectations for imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts are offering some support, helping to prevent deeper losses in the US Dollar. Markets are reassessing the easing path as policymakers reiterate that inflation remains elevated and needs to convincingly return toward the central bank's 2% target.In the Eurozone, softer inflation data released earlier in the day briefly weighed on the Euro. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% YoY in January, down from 2.0% in December, marking a 16-month low, according to final estimates. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 2.2% YoY from 2.3%.The data reinforced the view that inflation is under control, strengthening expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain a steady policy stance. Traders continue to price in interest rates remaining unchanged throughout 2026.Looking ahead, attention turns to fresh sentiment data from the Eurozone, with the February Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator readings due on Thursday. Investors will also monitor US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures on Friday. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% -0.32% 0.34% -0.19% -0.74% -0.40% -0.14% EUR 0.26% -0.06% 0.57% 0.07% -0.49% -0.14% 0.12% GBP 0.32% 0.06% 0.66% 0.13% -0.43% -0.08% 0.16% JPY -0.34% -0.57% -0.66% -0.50% -1.05% -0.72% -0.47% CAD 0.19% -0.07% -0.13% 0.50% -0.55% -0.21% 0.04% AUD 0.74% 0.49% 0.43% 1.05% 0.55% 0.35% 0.60% NZD 0.40% 0.14% 0.08% 0.72% 0.21% -0.35% 0.24% CHF 0.14% -0.12% -0.16% 0.47% -0.04% -0.60% -0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
18:06 NZD/USD climbs on weaker US Dollar following Trump’s State of the Union
NZD/USD trades around 0.5980 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.27% on the day and extending its rebound for a second consecutive day.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD gains ground as the US Dollar weakens following the State of the Union speech.Donald Trump threatens higher tariffs after the Supreme Court decision.The RBNZ keeps an accommodative stance, limiting the New Zealand Dollar’s upside.NZD/USD trades around 0.5980 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.27% on the day and extending its rebound for a second consecutive day. The pair benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD) after US President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address before Congress.
In his speech, Donald Trump said he had engineered a “turnaround for the ages” in the US economy, highlighting easing inflation and solid growth. He also stressed that tariffs were, in his view, a key driver behind this improvement. The president added that he could impose higher duties on countries that “play games” with recent trade agreements after the Supreme Court blocked several of his sweeping global tariff measures. These remarks revive trade uncertainty and temporarily weigh on the Greenback.
However, the downside in the US Dollar may remain limited. Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period. Several central bank officials consider the current monetary policy stance appropriate given the risks surrounding the economic outlook, supporting US yields and capping further weakness in the US Dollar.
On the New Zealand side, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently left its Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and reiterated that monetary policy remains accommodative as inflation moves toward the midpoint of its target range. Governor Anna Breman stated that gradually improving economic conditions should support a pickup in growth this year without reigniting strong inflationary pressures. Money markets do not expect a rate hike before late in the year, which could restrain further appreciation of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar.
Overall, while NZD/USD currently draws support from a softer Greenback amid political and trade-related uncertainty in the United States, the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains a key driver for the pair’s outlook. New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% -0.30% 0.31% -0.19% -0.73% -0.41% -0.14% EUR 0.26% -0.05% 0.57% 0.07% -0.48% -0.15% 0.12% GBP 0.30% 0.05% 0.64% 0.12% -0.43% -0.10% 0.17% JPY -0.31% -0.57% -0.64% -0.49% -1.03% -0.72% -0.45% CAD 0.19% -0.07% -0.12% 0.49% -0.54% -0.22% 0.05% AUD 0.73% 0.48% 0.43% 1.03% 0.54% 0.33% 0.59% NZD 0.41% 0.15% 0.10% 0.72% 0.22% -0.33% 0.27% CHF 0.14% -0.12% -0.17% 0.45% -0.05% -0.59% -0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed from previous -9.014M to 15.989M in February 20
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed from previous -9.014M to 15.989M in February 20
17:28 GBP/USD climbs as USD stalls amid trade uncertainty
The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session as the Greenback remains unchanged amid uncertainty on US trade policies, as investors wait results of one of the seven megacap companies after the Wall Street close. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3523, up 0.29%.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD rises as trade policy uncertainty leaves the Dollar range-bound.Andrew Bailey signals possible March cut, markets price modest easing by the Bank of England.Austan Goolsbee warns against front-loading cuts without clear disinflation evidence.The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session as the Greenback remains unchanged amid uncertainty on US trade policies, as investors wait results of one of the seven megacap companies after the Wall Street close. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3523, up 0.29%.Sterling gains near 1.3520 as cautious Fed tone and BoE easing bets keep traders on edgeThe scarce economic data in the US and the UK left traders adrift to comments by Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials along with investors’ expectations on monetary policy.On Tuesday, BoE Governor Bailey said that a rate cut in March is possible but acknowledged that inflation services remain high. In the past meeting, the UK central bank kept the Bank Rate unchanged on a narrow 5-4 vote split, seen by the financial markets as a dovish hold.As of writing, money markets had priced in so far 18 basis points of easing towards the March 19 meeting.Across the US, Fed officials crossed the wires, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee saying that cuts are appropriate if inflation falls, adding that he is concerned about “front loading” rate reductions due to the lack of evidence that inflation is falling towards the Fed’s 2% goal.In the meantime, Boston Fed Susan Collins and Richmond’s Fed Thomas Barkin revealed that they see a stable but loosening labor market and uneven inflation progress.For the upcoming meeting, investors do not expect the Fed to cut rates. However, for the rest of the year, traders had priced in 50 basis points of easing, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalFed, BoE officials to cross newswiresOn Thursday, the UK economic docket will remain absent, yet BoE’s Lombardelli will hit the wires. In the US, traders focus will be on Initial Jobless Claims and a speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookIn the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3528. The pair sits between an ascending support trend line from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, keeping the near-term bias neutral with a slight topside tilt as price holds above the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3530–1.3540. The upward-sloping support line continues to underpin the sequence of higher lows, while repeated failures to extend below the moving average group suggest buyers still defend dips despite fading FXS Fed Sentiment Index readings that signal waning broader optimism.Immediate resistance is aligned with the descending trend line, now capping the upside near 1.3560, and a clear break above this area would open the way toward the recent swing region around 1.3680, followed by 1.3835. On the downside, initial support is seen at the ascending trend line breakout area around 1.3550 turning into a nearby floor, with a drop back under 1.3500 exposing deeper support toward 1.3460 and then the 1.3400 area, where prior reactions cluster along the rising trend structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% -0.28% 0.97% 0.06% -0.21% 0.02% -0.20% EUR -0.04% -0.31% 0.94% 0.03% -0.26% -0.02% -0.22% GBP 0.28% 0.31% 1.44% 0.34% 0.02% 0.29% 0.10% JPY -0.97% -0.94% -1.44% -0.89% -1.15% -0.89% -1.16% CAD -0.06% -0.03% -0.34% 0.89% -0.28% 0.00% -0.25% AUD 0.21% 0.26% -0.02% 1.15% 0.28% 0.24% 0.04% NZD -0.02% 0.02% -0.29% 0.89% -0.00% -0.24% -0.20% CHF 0.20% 0.22% -0.10% 1.16% 0.25% -0.04% 0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
17:06 Eurozone: Household lending faces modest tightening – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas, citing the ECB Bank Lending Survey, notes that Eurozone banks plan a somewhat stronger tightening of credit standards for households than for corporations in 2026, mainly due to higher regulatory capital and liquidity requirements under CRR3 and the output floor.
BNP Paribas, citing the ECB Bank Lending Survey, notes that Eurozone banks plan a somewhat stronger tightening of credit standards for households than for corporations in 2026, mainly due to higher regulatory capital and liquidity requirements under CRR3 and the output floor. However, only a small share of banks intends to change standards, so overall loan growth should remain resilient.Household standards tighten but impact limited"According to the ECB's Bank Lending Survey (BLS), some banks in the Eurozone may tighten their credit standards for households more significantly in 2026 than in 2025.""Among those planning to tighten their standards over the next 12 months, households would be hit harder than corporations.""For example, 10% of banks expect a slight tightening for housing loans, 3% a strong tightening and 1% a slight easing.""The net percentage of banks expecting further tightening in 2026 is much higher than the net percentage observed in 2025 (12% and 7%, respectively).""Ultimately, new loans would remain largely buoyant: since June 2025, the cumulated monthly flows of new loans over 12 months has increased, on average and a year-on-year basis, by 30% for housing and 10% for corporation loans."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
17:01 Mexico Current Account, $ (QoQ) registered at $7702M, below expectations ($11520M) in 4Q
Mexico Current Account, $ (QoQ) registered at $7702M, below expectations ($11520M) in 4Q
17:01 Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP increased to 1.6% in 4Q from previous 0.49%
Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP increased to 1.6% in 4Q from previous 0.49%
16:35 GBP/USD: Rich valuation under rising BoE cut risk – HSBC
HSBC Global Research argues that GBP/USD looks expensive versus rate differentials as markets increasingly price a more dovish Bank of England. Sterling remains pressured after a narrow February vote to hold policy.
HSBC Global Research argues that GBP/USD looks expensive versus rate differentials as markets increasingly price a more dovish Bank of England. Sterling remains pressured after a narrow February vote to hold policy. The bank sees upcoming UK labour data and the March BoE meeting as crucial, with markets discounting a high probability of a 25 bp cut and focus on guidance for 2026.Sterling vulnerable as rate cut odds climb"GBP-USD looks rich relative to interest rate differentials, as expectations for a more dovish Bank of England (BoE) stance continue to grow.""The GBP has remained under pressure since the narrow 5-4 BoE vote in February to maintain current policy.""The upcoming UK labour market data, due just hours before the BoE’s 19 March meeting, is significant, with markets currently pricing in a c80% probability of a 25bp rate cut (Bloomberg, 24 February).""The key consideration for the GBP will be whether the BoE signals openness to further rate cuts during the remainder of 2026, in our view."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
16:30 EUR/GBP slips as softer Eurozone inflation weighs on the Euro
The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday as investors digest fresh Eurozone inflation figures and Germany’s fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP slips as softer Eurozone inflation limits support for the Euro.Eurozone January inflation slows to a 16-month low, while German Q4 GDP meets expectations.BoE Governor Bailey says a March rate cut remains an “open question.”The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday as investors digest fresh Eurozone inflation figures and Germany’s fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8716, remaining on the back foot for a fourth consecutive day.Data released by Eurostat showed that inflationary pressure eased at the start of the year. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% YoY in January, down from 2.0% in December, marking a 16-month low, according to final estimates. It also marked the first final reading below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target since May 2025.On a monthly basis, the HICP was down 0.6 % in January.The Core HICP fell 1.1% in January, reversing the 0.3% increase recorded in December. On a yearly basis, core inflation eased to 2.2% from 2.3%.Despite the softer inflation figures, the data did little to materially shift expectations around the ECB’s monetary policy path, with markets broadly anticipating that rates will remain unchanged through 2026. ECB President Christine Lagarde reinforced that view on Monday, stating, “I very strongly believe that we are in that good place.”Meanwhile, Germany’s fourth-quarter growth figures offered little surprise to markets. Europe’s largest economy expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, matching both expectations and the previous reading. On an annual basis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4%, also in line with forecasts.In the United Kingdom, expectations are gradually building that the Bank of England could lower interest rates in March. Speaking before Parliament’s Treasury Committee on Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said a rate cut remains a “genuinely open question,” adding that policymakers will continue to assess incoming data, particularly on inflation and wage growth. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
16:23 Silver rises sharply on safe-haven demand amid trade, geopolitical risks
Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates on Wednesday and trades around $90.70 at the time of writing, up 3.90% on the day. The white metal benefits from an environment marked by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainties, which revives demand for safe-haven assets.
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The white metal benefits from an environment marked by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainties, which revives demand for safe-haven assets.The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump of a 10% tariff increase on imports from all trading partners continues to fuel investor nervousness. This decision comes amid legal uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s ruling regarding the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, reinforcing concerns about a protectionist escalation that could weigh on global growth.At the same time, markets remain focused on the nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva between the United States (US) and Iran. The US president stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution, while Iranian officials indicated they are ready to take the necessary steps to reach an agreement. However, the risk of failed negotiations and a potential military escalation in the Middle East maintains a geopolitical risk premium that favors precious metals.On the monetary front, investors are reassessing the rate path of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several central bank officials recently highlighted persistent inflationary pressures, calling for caution before embarking on a pronounced easing cycle. Nevertheless, markets continue to price in rate cuts in the coming months, which limits the US Dollar (USD) rebound potential.In this context, the relative weakness of the Greenback and softer US Bond yields support the appeal of Silver, a non-yielding asset that tends to benefit from a lower interest rate environment. In the absence of major US macroeconomic releases, short-term price action in the precious metal is likely to remain driven by developments on the trade front, signals from the Fed and the outcome of the Washington-Tehran talks. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
16:08 US: Confidence improves as Fed stays cautious – DBS
DBS Group Research highlights that Boston Fed President Susan Collins signalled US interest rates are likely to stay on hold, describing policy as mildly restrictive with inflation still above 2%. Futures have pushed the expected first rate cut to September.
DBS Group Research highlights that Boston Fed President Susan Collins signalled US interest rates are likely to stay on hold, describing policy as mildly restrictive with inflation still above 2%. Futures have pushed the expected first rate cut to September. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence rose in February, though expectations remain below levels historically consistent with avoiding recession.Fed on hold while confidence edges higher"Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins reaffirmed the Fed’s narrative that interest rates will likely remain on hold for some time, characterizing current monetary policy as 'mildly restrictive' and appropriate as labour market risks diminish while inflation remains above 2%.""This guidance prompted the futures market to shift its expectation for the next rate cut from June to September.""The market remained cautious despite the US Conference Board's February 2026 report showing consumer confidence rising to 91.2, up from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January.""Despite the rise, the expectations index remained below the 80 threshold, which historically signalled a recession ahead.""The present Situation Index decreased by 1.8 points to 120, reflecting a slightly more pessimistic assessment of current business and employment conditions compared to the previous month."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:45 JPY: Reflationist BoJ picks flag downside risks – MUFG
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny highlights renewed Japanese Yen underperformance as Prime Minister Takaichi nominates reflationist-leaning academics Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to the BoJ policy board.
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny highlights renewed Japanese Yen underperformance as Prime Minister Takaichi nominates reflationist-leaning academics Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to the BoJ policy board. Markets price 15 bps of BoJ tightening for April, but MUFG warns that Deputy Governor Himino’s upcoming speech will be key for confirming that scenario and that failure to validate it could trigger further JPY weakness versus USD/JPY and broader G10.BoJ appointments reinforce yen downside bias"There is a clear underperformer today though (and yesterday) and that’s the yen with the government today announcing the picks to replace Asahi Noguchi at the end of March and Junko Nakagawa at the end of June.""Asada is well known for his reflationist views having co-authored work with former deputy governor Wakatabe in the past.""15bps worth of BoJ tightening is priced for April and whether that pricing is endorsed over the coming weeks will be crucial.""If an April hike is being considered we would expect Himino’s tone to at least be consistent with that possibility.""If he fails to do that there is an increased risk of further yen selling."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:23 AUD: Sticky CPI backs further RBA hike – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that Australia’s January CPI remained elevated, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation above consensus.
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that Australia’s January CPI remained elevated, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation above consensus. The report stresses that price pressures are still sticky, driven by housing and electricity costs, while some recreational and transport prices eased. The strategists argue the RBA likely needs another rate hike, with May seen as the next key opportunity.Elevated inflation keeps RBA under pressure"As we expected, Australia headline CPI stayed elevated in Jan, at 3.8% y/y (cons: 3.7%, prior: 3.8%). Trimmed mean inflation (i.e., core inflation) also edged higher to 3.4% y/y (cons: 3.3%, prior: 3.3%).""On a m/m seasonally adjusted basis, headline CPI accelerated to 0.5%, faster than the 0.2% m/m pace seen in the prior 2 months.""The acceleration was led by housing prices due to the surge in electricity costs from the roll-off of the Commonwealth and state-level electricity rebates. New dwelling and rents also registered a faster pace of increase in Jan.""On the flip side, a retreat in recreational prices and transport prices were the positives in today's CPI report.""Overall, Jan CPI reflect that price pressures remain sticky and the RBA needs another follow-up hike.""Question is on timing and we think May is the next best opportunity."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:09 EU-US trade deal: Waiting for tariff clarity – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered economist Christopher Graham notes that the European Parliament has paused ratification of the EU-US trade deal as it seeks clarity on new US tariffs.
Standard Chartered economist Christopher Graham notes that the European Parliament has paused ratification of the EU-US trade deal as it seeks clarity on new US tariffs. The report highlights uncertainty created by the US Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs and President Trump’s new Section 122 measures, with potential changes to steel tariffs and sectoral exemptions under close European scrutiny.Parliament pauses deal pending US clarity"The European Parliament has suspended ratification of the EU-US trade deal as it awaits tariff clarity The EU’s chief concerns are over the timeline and potential for further Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs European Parliament is looking for longer-term clarity; changes to steel tariffs could help in this regard Europe will not want to escalate matters, but will hope to exert more leverage on sectoral exemptions.""The US Supreme Court’s ruling on 20 February striking down IEEPA tariffs has created uncertainty in Europe over whether the EU’s pre-existing trade deal still applies, and what future tariffs could still be in the offing.""President Trump has announced new 10% tariffs on all trade partners via Section 122 – which could rise to 15% soon – but the White House has also communicated that legally binding agreements would still be honoured.""There is uncertainty among European policy makers over what this means in practice, and the European Parliament’s trade committee has paused the ratification process for the EU-US trade deal brokered last year until it has further clarity in this regard (including the reduction of tariffs on US industrial goods imports).""However, the European Commissioner for Trade, Maros Sefcovic, has since said that the deal could be ratified in March once greater certainty emerges."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:54 Copper: Chinese demand lifts prices – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that LME copper has moved back above $13,000/t as Chinese buyers return from Lunar New Year, with Yangshan premiums hitting a two‑month high.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that LME copper has moved back above $13,000/t as Chinese buyers return from Lunar New Year, with Yangshan premiums hitting a two‑month high. They stress that elevated SHFE and LME inventories and deep contango in time spreads indicate a well‑supplied market despite early signs of demand recovery.Chinese buying meets high inventories"Copper prices on the LME have moved back above $13,000/t as Chinese participants return from the Lunar New Year holidays on Tuesday, increasing import appetite. The Yangshan copper premium, an indicator of China's import demand, has risen to $53/t, a two-month high, from around $33/t before the Lunar New Year holiday. This suggests increasing buying interest.""This improvement in demand, however, comes amid elevated inventories. SHFE stocks remain high following seasonal builds, while LME inventories have continued to trend upward. This suggests that, despite the rebound in Chinese demand, the global copper market remains well supplied for now.""LME time spreads remain in a deep contango, reflecting ample nearby availability. While stronger Chinese imports should help absorb some excess material, a sustained tightening in spreads will likely require clearer evidence of inventory draws, both in China and on the LME.""Overall, the market is showing early signs of demand recovery. Yet high inventory levels are likely to cap the pace of any near‑term tightening. The next key indicator will be whether the import arbitrage stays open and leads to sustained LME stock draws, accompanied by a quicker‑than‑seasonal decline in SHFE inventories.""Positioning data from the latest LME COTR shows that funds cut their net long in copper by 3,393 lots to 33,882 lots, the lowest level since October 2023. Money managers also reduced net long positions in aluminium by 4,486 lots to 92,972 lots. Speculative zinc positions fell by 844 lots after five consecutive weeks of gains, leaving the net long at 44,587 lots."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:53 USD/CHF climbs as shifting Fed outlook supports the Greenback
USD/CHF edges higher on Wednesday, drawing support from a firmer US Dollar, which is exerting pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7746, after bouncing off an intraday low of 0.7719.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF advances on Wednesday as the US Dollar gains traction amid shifting Fed rate cut expectations.Traders now see July as the more likely timing for the next Fed interest rate cut.The Swiss Franc remains under pressure despite an uptick in economic sentiment.USD/CHF edges higher on Wednesday, drawing support from a firmer US Dollar, which is exerting pressure on the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7746, after bouncing off an intraday low of 0.7719.The Greenback is showing signs of resilience as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path and scale back expectations for near-term interest rate cuts, with policymakers remaining concerned about sticky inflation pressure.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that he is cautious about front-loading rate cuts without clear evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back toward the 2% target.Markets widely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the March and April meetings, though traders still price in nearly 50 basis points (bps) of easing by year-end.A June rate cut, previously seen as the most likely timing for the Fed to resume easing, now appears less certain. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June cut has fallen to around 40% from roughly 50% a week ago. July is now viewed as the more likely window for the next rate reduction, with markets currently assigning around a 65% chance.The shift in expectations is lending near-term support to the US Dollar. However, the Greenback’s upside could remain limited amid lingering structural headwinds tied to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade agenda and growing concerns over policy credibility and fiscal stability.In Switzerland, economic sentiment improved in February, with the ZEW Survey – Expectations index rising to 9.8 from -4.7 in the previous month, but the data offered little support to the Swiss Franc.Speaking on Tuesday, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said, “It’s possible there will be a few months with negative inflation, but that’s not an alarm signal as we look at inflation over the mid-term.” He added, “I expect inflation to accelerate in the coming quarters,” and reiterated that “the SNB is ready to intervene on currency markets where necessary.”Looking ahead, there are no key US releases on Wednesday, as traders look ahead to comments from Fed officials in the American session. Attention will then turn to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and Switzerland’s fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, both due on Friday. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
14:41 Eurozone: Softer inflation underpins Euro rates outlook – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that Eurozone January inflation eased to 1.7% year-on-year, with EU inflation at 2.0%. Services remain the main positive contribution, while energy drags.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that Eurozone January inflation eased to 1.7% year-on-year, with EU inflation at 2.0%. Services remain the main positive contribution, while energy drags. Bob Savage notes that inflation declined in most member states, reinforcing a disinflationary trend that shapes expectations for Euro area rates and supports Eurozone government bond markets and equities.Disinflation trend across Euro area"Eurozone’s January inflation rate eased to 1.7% y/y from 2.0% in December, down from 2.5% a year earlier, while EU inflation slowed to 2.0% y/y from 2.3%, compared with 2.8% previously.""The lowest annual rates were recorded in France (0.4%), Denmark (0.6%) and Finland and Italy (both 1.0%), while Romania (8.5%), Slovakia (4.3%) and Estonia (3.8%) registered the highest.""Compared with December, inflation decreased in 23 member states, was flat in one and increased in three.""Services contributed the most to euro area inflation (+1.45 percentage points), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.51 percentage points), while energy exerted a negative contribution (-0.39 percentage points)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:39 AUD/USD rises on robust inflation data, boosting RBA tightening bets
AUD/USD trades around 0.7090 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.42% on the day, supported by an unexpected acceleration in inflationary pressures in Australia, which revives expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Australian Dollar rises sharply after stronger January inflation data.Markets reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening by the RBA.The US Dollar trades in a mixed tone following the US President’s address to Congress.AUD/USD trades around 0.7090 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.42% on the day, supported by an unexpected acceleration in inflationary pressures in Australia, which revives expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance.Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in January on a monthly basis, compared with 0.1% in December. The underlying Trimmed Mean measure rose by 0.3% over the month, after 0.2% previously. On an annual basis, the Trimmed Mean accelerated to 3.4%, above expectations and the prior 3.3% reading, while headline inflation remained steady at 3.8%, whereas a slight slowdown had been anticipated.These figures support the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At its latest meeting, the central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% and signaled that upside risks to inflation persist. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently stressed that price dynamics remain too strong to consider an early easing. In this context, money markets now fully price in the prospect of another rate hike in the coming months, underpinning the Australian Dollar (AUD).According to analysts at Societe Generale, the upside surprise in inflation strengthens the case for a second 25 basis point increase and supports the continuation of the pair’s recovery. The bank notes that market pricing now reflects a higher-for-longer rate scenario in Australia.On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) trades without a clear direction following US President Donald Trump’s address to Congress. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near the 98.00 level as investors assess the impact of the President’s remarks on trade policy and the economic outlook. Attention also remains focused on evolving monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid mixed economic data.Overall, the monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the Fed, combined with resilient Australian inflation indicators, supports the short-term bullish momentum in AUD/USD, although caution persists in light of geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% -0.09% 0.56% -0.05% -0.37% 0.00% 0.14% EUR 0.06% -0.04% 0.63% 0.04% -0.32% 0.07% 0.20% GBP 0.09% 0.04% 0.68% 0.04% -0.28% 0.10% 0.23% JPY -0.56% -0.63% -0.68% -0.60% -0.91% -0.54% -0.41% CAD 0.05% -0.04% -0.04% 0.60% -0.32% 0.06% 0.19% AUD 0.37% 0.32% 0.28% 0.91% 0.32% 0.38% 0.51% NZD -0.01% -0.07% -0.10% 0.54% -0.06% -0.38% 0.13% CHF -0.14% -0.20% -0.23% 0.41% -0.19% -0.51% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
14:26 Fed: Conviction cuts and dovish reaction – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO Senior Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that under Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s ‘conviction-based’ approach and a more dovish reaction function point to lower rates despite a bullish US outlook.
ABN AMRO Senior Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that under Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s ‘conviction-based’ approach and a more dovish reaction function point to lower rates despite a bullish US outlook. The bank expects 75 bps of cuts this year and sees policy converging toward a 3.00% Federal Funds Rate by year-end, even with above-target inflation.Warsh era seen reinforcing dovish bias"In the nearer term, we should probably expect less transparency, with less communication and guidance from FOMC officials.""Most important for the near term, however, is his idea of ‘conviction-based’ policy.""Despite that, we do still see more rate cuts than current market pricing would suggest.""While that may seem inconsistent, the answer lies in a more dovish reaction function of the Fed which has gradually revealed itself over the past half year, where inflation above target carries significantly less weight than any potential threats to employment.""With the current median SEP forecast, there is room to continue easing at 25 bps pace.""Our base case of stronger inflation prevents this continued easing in the near term, but the implied policy rate converges to an upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate at 3.00% by year end."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:04 USD/CAD: Oil support and softer US trade stance cap upside – HSBC
HSBC Global Research views USD/CAD as largely driven by the broader Dollar trend, with the pair trading slightly below levels implied by rate spreads, reflecting Canadian Dollar resilience. Elevated Oil prices linked to Middle East tensions are supportive.
HSBC Global Research views USD/CAD as largely driven by the broader Dollar trend, with the pair trading slightly below levels implied by rate spreads, reflecting Canadian Dollar resilience. Elevated Oil prices linked to Middle East tensions are supportive. With tariff uncertainty easing and a potentially less aggressive US trade stance into midterms, a sharp USD/CAD rise is seen as unlikely.Loonie resilient as oil and policy help"USD-CAD is primarily driven by the broad USD trend and is currently trading just below levels implied by interest rate differentials, reflecting CAD resilience.""Elevated oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, continue to support the CAD.""Although tariff uncertainty could impact business confidence, recent improvements are notable.""With a potentially less aggressive US trade stance ahead of the mid-term elections, a sharp USD-CAD increase seems unlikely."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:00 Japanese Yen plummets against its peers on BoJ rate hike uncertainty
The Japanese Yen plunges against its major currency peers, is down 0.6% to near 156.80 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues to underperform amid uncertainty over the BoJ’s interest rate hike plans.Japanese PM Takaichi seems not in favor of the BoJ’s intentions to raise interest rates further.The US Dollar recovers its early losses, driven by Trump’s SOTU address before Congress.The Japanese Yen plunges against its major currency peers, is down 0.6% to near 156.80 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair strengthens as the JPY underperforms after a report from the Mainichi daily on Tuesday signaled that Japan's Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi is not in favor of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans to raise interest rates further. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% -0.04% 0.61% 0.00% -0.27% 0.09% 0.23% EUR -0.02% -0.06% 0.59% -0.01% -0.29% 0.07% 0.21% GBP 0.04% 0.06% 0.66% 0.04% -0.23% 0.13% 0.27% JPY -0.61% -0.59% -0.66% -0.60% -0.87% -0.52% -0.37% CAD -0.00% 0.01% -0.04% 0.60% -0.27% 0.08% 0.22% AUD 0.27% 0.29% 0.23% 0.87% 0.27% 0.36% 0.50% NZD -0.09% -0.07% -0.13% 0.52% -0.08% -0.36% 0.14% CHF -0.23% -0.21% -0.27% 0.37% -0.22% -0.50% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Takaichi voiced concerns over BoJ’s intentions to hike interest rates further in her meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda, which happened last week on February 16, the report showed.Above that, the Japanese government has nominated two new members: Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to join the central bank's nine-member board, a day after the Mainichi daily report. Market participants could see the move as Japan PM Takaichi’s attempt to boost her monetary policy preferences.Meanwhile, the US Dollar recovers its early losses and turns higher ahead of the United States (US) markets' opening. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.1% to near 98.00.Earlier in the day, the US Dollar dropped after United States (US) President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 0.4% in February 20 from previous 2.8%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to 0.4% in February 20 from previous 2.8%
13:53 Gold consolidates as investors weigh US tariffs, Iran talks and Fed outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles for direction on Wednesday, easing slightly after trimming part of the previous day’s losses. Although the downside appears limited, as fresh uncertainty over US trade policy and lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
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Although the downside appears limited, as fresh uncertainty over US trade policy and lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin safe-haven demand.At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades near $5,171, after briefly climbing above the $5,200 level earlier in the European trading session. A broadly steady US Dollar (USD), alongwith a modest recovery in global equity markets, is limiting follow-through buying in Bullion. Global trade jitters and US-Iran talks keep markets on edgeGlobal trade tensions resurfaced after US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, seeking to preserve tariff measures following the US Supreme Court’s ruling against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Market sentiment also remains cautious ahead of high-level US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday. Investors remain wary of a potential military escalation, given the significant presence of US armed forces in the region, if the talks fail to deliver a meaningful breakthrough.Earlier in the day, US President Trump said during his State of the Union address that his preference is to resolve the Iran nuclear issue through diplomacy. Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Tehran is ready to take the necessary steps to reach an agreement with the US.Traders reassess Fed easing pathInvestors have scaled back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts as policymakers continue to flag concerns over persistent inflation pressure. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that he is cautious about front-loading rate cuts without clear evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back toward the 2% target.Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that interest rates were likely to stay unchanged “for some time” and that she was looking for more confidence that disinflation resumes.This shift is likely supporting the US Dollar’s resilience, which in turn is acting as a headwind for the non-yielding metal, as Gold typically performs better in a lower interest rate environment.Looking ahead, in the absence of major US data releases, traders will focus on Fed signals and geopolitical news for short-term direction in Gold.Technical analysis: XAU/USD stalls below $5,250The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD forming a rising wedge pattern, typically seen as a bearish reversal structure. The near-term bias has turned mildly negative after sellers stepped in around the $5,250 area.Momentum indicators suggest upside pressure is fading. The Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated from overbought readings above 70 toward the high-50s, signaling cooling upside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, 9) shows the line slipping below its signal with the histogram in negative territory, hinting at fading bullish momentum.On the upside, a sustained break above the $5,250 level — the upper boundary of the wedge — would be needed to resume the broader uptrend, potentially opening the door toward the $5,500 region.On the downside, a break below $5,100 would expose the 100-period SMA near $5,012, which aligns closely with the lower boundary of the wedge. A decisive move below this zone could trigger a deeper correction toward $4,850, with scope to extend toward $4,650 if selling pressure accelerates. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:53 DXY: Range holds as Fed patience persists – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the USD index (DXY) is trading near the middle of its 96.00–100.00 range and is expected to stay there in the near term, as it tracks rate differentials and lacks major catalysts.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the USD index (DXY) is trading near the middle of its 96.00–100.00 range and is expected to stay there in the near term, as it tracks rate differentials and lacks major catalysts. Structurally, BBH remains bearish on the Dollar due to US policy credibility concerns and ongoing Fed politicization.Dollar seen rangebound but structurally weak"The USD index (DXY) is directionless near the middle of its 96.00-100.00 range that’s held since June. We expect this range to hold in the near-term because USD is trading in line with rate differentials and there are no immediate catalysts to materially shift major central bank rate expectations. Structurally, we are bearish USD because of fading confidence in US trade and security policy, worsening US fiscal credibility, and the ongoing politicization of the Fed.""The Fed can afford to be patient before resuming easing. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index improved more than expected in February and consumers are less pessimistic about the labor market. The labor differential index (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) ticked up to 7.4 vs. 6.8 in January while job expectations over the next six months (more jobs-fewer jobs) rose to -10.4 vs. -13.9 in February.""Most Fed officials are throwing cold water on rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (2027 voter) noted that “with core inflation hovering near 3% and unemployment steady, the case for patience remains strong.” Boston Fed President Susan Collins (non-voter) stressed “I think that it’s quite likely that it will be appropriate to hold the current range for some time,” while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (2027 voter) highlighted that “monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks.”""Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid (non-voter) and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (non-voter) speak today. Recall, Schmid voted to keep rates on hold at both the October and December 2025 FOMC meetings when the majority favored a cut."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
13:34 USD/JPY: Reflationist BoJ board shift seen limited – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that Prime Minister Takaichi’s decision to nominate reflationist academics to the BoJ Board has unsettled the Japanese Yen and JGBs, but she argues the overall policy tilt is unlikely to change significantly.
Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that Prime Minister Takaichi’s decision to nominate reflationist academics to the BoJ Board has unsettled the Japanese Yen and JGBs, but she argues the overall policy tilt is unlikely to change significantly. With Noguchi and Nakagawa leaving, Rabobank still expects only a slightly more dovish bias and maintains a view for lower USD/JPY over the coming months.Reflationist nominations unsettle Yen briefly"The decision by PM Takaichi to nominate two reflationist university professors, Sato and Asada, to the Board of the BoJ has unsettled both the JGB market and the JPY today. It is likely that the initial impact will fade.""The seats that are becoming vacant this year currently belong to Noguchi who is a well-known dove and Nakagawa who has a tendency to vote with the consensus. Noguchi is due to retire in March and Nakagawa’s term ends in June.""So, while the bias of policy makers could become slightly more dovish, it is unlikely to be a significant shift.""In view of the latest bout of JPY weakness there is some speculation in the market that the BoJ may hike rates a little sooner in April, though the March 19 policy meeting is widely considered to be too soon given the proximity of the December 2025 rate hike.""In view of Japan’s emergence from deflation, structural reforms in the stock market, targeted investment programmes, improved business confidence and huge pile of domestic savings we remain optimism that USD/JPY can turn lower in the coming months."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
13:17 US: Mixed confidence data cloud outlook – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes that US consumer confidence data surprised to the upside in February, mainly due to upward revisions to January. The present situation index weakened, while expectations improved, leaving the overall tone mixed.
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes that US consumer confidence data surprised to the upside in February, mainly due to upward revisions to January. The present situation index weakened, while expectations improved, leaving the overall tone mixed. The analysts highlight a “low-fire, low-hire” labor market theme and see consumption plans on uncertain ground for US households.Mixed confidence and labor market signals"Consumer confidence surprised to the upside in February, rising to 91.2 from 89.0 previously (TD: 85.5, consensus: 87.1). The upside surprise, however, was concentrated in backward revisions to January, which was revised up to 89.0 from 84.5 previously.""We were expecting a modest rebound in Feb after a decline in Jan, and that is essentially what occurred. The move is not as positive as the headline surprise would suggest. In fact, the present situation index declined 1.8pts in Feb after an 8.1pt upward revision in Jan.""Expectations moved higher and was the source of the rebound. Consumption plans in the report saw a mix of positive and negative, reflecting uncertain ground for consumers.""Consumer's labor market assessment improved somewhat with the labor differential ticking up to 7.4 after January was revised up 3.7pts to 6.8. Job finding expectations have been on a general downtrend, with the NY Fed survey corroborating.""The low-fire, low-hire labor market is still the main theme, despite recent stabilization."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:56 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds gains near $5,200 amid US-Iran tensions, trade uncertainty
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.6% higher to near $5,200 during the European trading session on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price jumps to near $5,200 amid US-Iran tensions and uncertainty over the US trade policy outlook.US President Trump warns of military action if Tehran denies the deal.The US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs has upended the trade policy outlook.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.6% higher to near $5,200 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The precious metal gains as tensions between the United States (US) and Iran over Tehran’s intentions to build nuclear infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding Washington’s trade policy have improved demand for safe-haven assets.Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, perform better in a worsening geopolitical environment.Meanwhile, investors await nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which are scheduled for Thursday, to get cues on how the Middle East situation will shape going forward. Ahead of the meeting, US President Donald Trump has also warned of military action in Tehran if it doesn’t drop its nuclear programme plans. Trump threatened Tehran through a post on Truth.Social on Monday that it will be a very bad day for the country and its people if they don’t reach a deal.In the US, the Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling against additional duties imposed by Washington has upended the trade policy outlook. On Friday, the SC accused President Donald Trump of exceeding his authority to back his tariff agenda by invoking economic emergency powers.Although US President Trump has announced 10% global tariffs to offset the SC’s verdict, which could be increased to 15%, and he has also warned of steeper tariffs in case countries dishonour trade deals, investors still worry that nations could demand deal revision.Gold technical analysisXAU/USD trades higher to near $5,200 as of writing. The near-term bias is bullish as price continues to respect the rising support trend line from about $4,400 and holds well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near $5,010. The sequence of higher lows along this trend line keeps the uptrend intact despite recent volatility, while the EMA cluster under price confirms underlying demand on dips. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60.00 stays in positive territory, signaling sustained upside momentum rather than exhaustion after the earlier overbought readings have eased.Immediate support emerges at the trend-line area around $5,120, followed by the 20-day EMA near $5,010 and then the recent reaction low at $4,880. A break below this support band would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracements toward $4,750. On the upside, initial resistance sits near the recent peak at $5,240, and a daily close above this level would open the way toward the $5,380 region. As long as price holds above the EMA and the rising trend line, dips are positioned to attract buyers within the prevailing uptrend.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:48 EUR/JPY climbs as Japanese Yen weakens amid BoJ policy uncertainty, mixed German data
EUR/JPY trades around 184.60 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.58% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the Euro (EUR). The bullish momentum in the cross comes amid growing uncertainty about the pace of monetary policy normalization in Japan.
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The bullish momentum in the cross comes amid growing uncertainty about the pace of monetary policy normalization in Japan.According to local media reports, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concerns about further rate hikes during her meeting last week with Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Although Ueda clarified that the discussion broadly covered economic and financial developments and that no specific monetary policy requests were made, the headlines have fueled market doubts about the BoJ’s ability to continue tightening policy at a steady pace.The nomination of board members perceived as favoring accommodative policies further reinforces the view that normalization could remain gradual. This perception has led investors to scale back expectations of additional rate hikes in Japan, weakening the Japanese Yen and mechanically supporting the advance in EUR/JPY.On the European side, the Euro benefits from a relatively stable backdrop. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde recently stated that inflation in the Eurozone and the current interest rate stance are in a good place. She emphasized that decisions will continue to be taken meeting by meeting, based on incoming data, while describing the balance of risks as broadly balanced.Investors are now digesting the latest batch of German and Eurozone data, which paints a mixed macroeconomic picture. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for March deteriorated to -24.7 from a revised -24.2 in February, missing market expectations of -23.5 and highlighting persistent fragility in household sentiment.At the same time, Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter was confirmed at 0.3% on a quarterly basis and 0.4% YoY, in line with expectations, suggesting that Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing but not yet regaining strong momentum.On the inflation front, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for January was revised down to -0.6% MoM from -0.5%, while the annual rate was confirmed at 1.7%. Core HICP was also confirmed at -1.1% MoM and 2.2% YoY. The downward revision in the monthly headline figure reinforces the view that disinflationary pressures remain present, even as core inflation stays relatively resilient on a yearly basis. This combination reinforces expectations of a more wait-and-see hold from the ECB in the near term. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.05% -0.11% 0.55% -0.05% -0.32% -0.02% 0.08% EUR 0.05% -0.05% 0.59% 0.00% -0.27% 0.07% 0.15% GBP 0.11% 0.05% 0.66% 0.05% -0.22% 0.11% 0.20% JPY -0.55% -0.59% -0.66% -0.57% -0.84% -0.55% -0.43% CAD 0.05% -0.00% -0.05% 0.57% -0.27% 0.03% 0.15% AUD 0.32% 0.27% 0.22% 0.84% 0.27% 0.30% 0.45% NZD 0.02% -0.07% -0.11% 0.55% -0.03% -0.30% 0.11% CHF -0.08% -0.15% -0.20% 0.43% -0.15% -0.45% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:15 China commerce ministry pushes for progress in trade agreement with US
China commerce ministry expresses willingness to work with the United States (US) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The ministry added Beijing has fulfilled necessary obligations required to fulfil the first phase of the agreement.
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China commerce ministry expresses willingness to work with the United States (US) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The ministry added Beijing has fulfilled necessary obligations required to fulfil the first phase of the agreement.RemarksChina is willing to work with the US to make good use of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.
China has fulfilled obligations of China-US phase one agreement.
China hopes US to 'objectively' view implementation of agreement.
China will resolutely safeguard rights, interests.
China hopes US will not "shift responsibility", or "cause trouble".Market reactionThere seems to be no immediate impact of comments from China Commerce Ministry on the Chinese Yuan (CNH) traded in the offshore market. As of writing, USD/CNH trades 0.16% lower to near 6.8666.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
China has fulfilled obligations of China-US phase one agreement.
China hopes US to 'objectively' view implementation of agreement.
China will resolutely safeguard rights, interests.
China hopes US will not "shift responsibility", or "cause trouble".Market reactionThere seems to be no immediate impact of comments from China Commerce Ministry on the Chinese Yuan (CNH) traded in the offshore market. As of writing, USD/CNH trades 0.16% lower to near 6.8666.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
12:10 BoJ: June hike seen more likely – ING
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang argues that the Bank of Japan will keep basing rate decisions on data despite a slightly more dovish board tilt and government pressure.
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang argues that the Bank of Japan will keep basing rate decisions on data despite a slightly more dovish board tilt and government pressure. ING expects no early move while inflation slows, with Tokyo CPI set to decelerate, and sees a higher probability of a June rate hike than April, after wage and inflation data are confirmed.Board tilt but path unchanged"Despite ongoing concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's independence from government influence, the BoJ unanimously decided to raise rates in December. The Board consists of nine members: the governor, two deputy governors, and six others.""Two new academic candidates with “reflationist” views were nominated by the government today to replace board members Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa, who are retiring in March and June.""The market appears to anticipate that these two members (pending approval) – Ayano Sato, an Aoyama Gakuin University professor and Toichiro Asada, a Chuo University professor – will serve as strong opponents to monetary easing, thereby establishing a consistent bloc likely to dissent against any prospective rate increases.""However, in our view, the overall dove-hawk balance on board is likely to be tilted slightly toward the dovish side but unlikely to change significantly from its current state because Noguchi is already the most dovish member and Nakagawa tends to be neutral or dovish among current board members.""In this sense, we judge that an interest rate hike during the first half of the year, when inflation is expected to slow sharply, is unlikely.""The Bank of Japan is expected to adjust the pace of its bond purchases for the fiscal year 2027, with an announcement likely at the April meeting."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at -1.1% in January
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at -1.1% in January
12:00 RBA’s Bullock: Have to be patient on judging policy
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock spoke at the Melbourne University Faculty of Economics & Business Foundation Dinner, Melbourne, on Wednesday.
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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock spoke at the Melbourne University Faculty of Economics & Business Foundation Dinner, Melbourne, on Wednesday.Key quotesEconomy is in quite a good position.
Policy judgements are difficult.
Have to be patient on judging policy.Market reactionThe Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing headwinds from the above comments, as AUD/USD pares back gains to trade at 0.7085 at the time of writing. The pair is still up 0.41% on the day. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% -0.16% 0.49% -0.08% -0.39% -0.08% 0.06% EUR 0.08% -0.06% 0.55% 0.01% -0.30% 0.00% 0.14% GBP 0.16% 0.06% 0.66% 0.07% -0.24% 0.07% 0.21% JPY -0.49% -0.55% -0.66% -0.54% -0.85% -0.56% -0.41% CAD 0.08% -0.01% -0.07% 0.54% -0.31% -0.01% 0.13% AUD 0.39% 0.30% 0.24% 0.85% 0.31% 0.31% 0.44% NZD 0.08% 0.00% -0.07% 0.56% 0.01% -0.31% 0.14% CHF -0.06% -0.14% -0.21% 0.41% -0.13% -0.44% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Policy judgements are difficult.
Have to be patient on judging policy.Market reactionThe Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing headwinds from the above comments, as AUD/USD pares back gains to trade at 0.7085 at the time of writing. The pair is still up 0.41% on the day. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% -0.16% 0.49% -0.08% -0.39% -0.08% 0.06% EUR 0.08% -0.06% 0.55% 0.01% -0.30% 0.00% 0.14% GBP 0.16% 0.06% 0.66% 0.07% -0.24% 0.07% 0.21% JPY -0.49% -0.55% -0.66% -0.54% -0.85% -0.56% -0.41% CAD 0.08% -0.01% -0.07% 0.54% -0.31% -0.01% 0.13% AUD 0.39% 0.30% 0.24% 0.85% 0.31% 0.31% 0.44% NZD 0.08% 0.00% -0.07% 0.56% 0.01% -0.31% 0.14% CHF -0.06% -0.14% -0.21% 0.41% -0.13% -0.44% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in January
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in January
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in January
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in January
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.5%) in January
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.5%) in January
11:53 AUD/USD: Breakout extends with CPI surprise – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts note that AUD/USD has broken out of a multi‑month consolidation and is trading near its 2023 peak after a stronger‑than‑expected Australian core CPI print.
Societe Generale analysts note that AUD/USD has broken out of a multi‑month consolidation and is trading near its 2023 peak after a stronger‑than‑expected Australian core CPI print. The report highlights nearby support and resistance levels, outlines upside technical targets, and stresses that RBA pricing now fully discounts a second 25 bp rate hike to 4.10% in May.Breakout holds as RBA priced higher"Spot reclaims 0.71-handle in biggest gain since 11 February (0.74%) following above forecast January CPI.""Australia January headline CPI unchanged at 3.8%, core trimmed mean ticks up to 3.4% from 3.3% (+0.3% m/m).""A second rate increase by the RBA to 4.10% is fully discounted for May.""AUD/USD broke out of a multi month consolidation base and recently revisited the 2023 peak at 0.7150. Following this move, the pair has entered a brief consolidation phase, with no clear indications yet of a downside reversal. Should a short-term pullback unfold, the February low at 0.6890 is expected to serve as initial support.""The breakout from the previous wide range highlights possibility of further upside. Beyond 0.7150, next objectives could be located at projections of 0.7220 and 0.7400.""Gov Bullock speaks late, capex data tonight."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:35 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $90.96 per troy ounce, up 4.19% from the $87.30 it cost on Tuesday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $90.96 per troy ounce, up 4.19% from the $87.30 it cost on Tuesday.Silver prices have increased by 27.96% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce90.961 Gram2.92The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 57.06 on Wednesday, down from 59.16 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:15 EUR/USD: Range highs eyed on policy risk pricing – HSBC
HSBC Global Research highlights that EUR/USD has been steady despite EU–US trade uncertainty, with much US policy risk already priced. The bank expects the pair to move back toward the upper end of its recent range without breaking higher.
HSBC Global Research highlights that EUR/USD has been steady despite EU–US trade uncertainty, with much US policy risk already priced. The bank expects the pair to move back toward the upper end of its recent range without breaking higher. Fiscal expansion and production recovery support the Euro, but limited wage growth and credit dynamics cap the upside.Euro seen gravitating toward range top"EUR-USD remains stable despite ongoing uncertainty over EU-US trade policy.""With EURUSD trading above interest rate differentials, much of the US policy risk appears to be priced in.""Over the coming weeks, we look for EUR-USD to drift back to the upper end of its trading range but not establish new highs.""Expansionary fiscal measures and recovering production offer some upside, but without stronger wage growth or a pronounced credit cycle, a significant EUR rally is unlikely.""The European Central Bank’s (ECB) influence on the EUR remains limited, with no rate changes anticipated through 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:02 WTI trades below $66.00 as US crude build fuels oversupply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price loses ground for the second successive session, trading around $65.90 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI falls after API reported a 11.4 million-barrel US crude build, reversing the prior 0.609 million draw.Oil losses may be limited as traders weigh supply risks before US-Iran nuclear talks.Traders assess Oil demand risks after Trump’s 10% tariff, with plans to raise it to 15%.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price loses ground for the second successive session, trading around $65.90 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday. WTI price declined after a sharp build in United States (US) crude inventories fueled oversupply concerns, with traders awaiting the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report due later in the day.The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that weekly US Crude Oil Stock rose by 11.4 million barrels in the week ended February 20, compared with a draw of 0.609 million barrels previously.However, losses in Oil prices could be limited as investors assess supply risks ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran. In his State of the Union (SoTU) address, President Donald Trump reiterated his preference for diplomacy but accused Iran of rebuilding its nuclear program and pursuing missiles capable of striking the US.Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Tehran would do “whatever it takes” to secure a deal with Washington. Markets are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil flows, where any escalation could disrupt supply.Traders are also evaluating the potential impact on Oil demand of new US trade measures after Trump’s 10% global tariff took effect on Tuesday, with efforts underway to raise it to 15%. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
11:00 Austria UniCredit Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 47.2 to 49.4 in February
Austria UniCredit Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 47.2 to 49.4 in February
11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -4.7 to 9.8 in February
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -4.7 to 9.8 in February
10:59 GBP: March BoE cut risk keeps pound vulnerable – MUFG
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny notes that recent BoE testimony nudged front-end UK yields slightly higher and briefly supported the Pound, but policymakers signalled a finely balanced March decision.
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny notes that recent BoE testimony nudged front-end UK yields slightly higher and briefly supported the Pound, but policymakers signalled a finely balanced March decision. With Governor Bailey and Catherine Mann seen as potential swing voters and UK jobs data crucial, MUFG still expects a March cut, another in June, and sees scope for further GBP underperformance versus EUR/GBP and broader G10.Finely balanced BoE but cuts still expected"The scale of the moves in front-end yields feels about right to us – it’s understandable that the comments delivered indicate that the decision in March on the data available as of now is very finely balanced.""Governor Bailey stated in parliament that services inflation “didn’t fall as much as hoped” and that it was a “genuinely open question” whether there is enough evidence of disinflation to warrant a cut in March.""It does though emphasise the importance of the next jobs report, which will be released on the same day as the MPC decision (19th March).""If the data continues to show the gradual softening of labour market conditions that we have seen for many months now, then we believe a cut is likely.""That remains our view and with inflation set to fall to target in May, another cut in June is very likely."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:44 US: Market risks from Trump policy signals – Rabobank
Rabobank Senior Global Strategist Michael Every reviews President Trump’s State of the Union remarks, highlighting policy ideas on tariffs, healthcare subsidies, AI datacentre electricity pricing, retirement schemes, voting ID and a new War on Fraud.
Rabobank Senior Global Strategist Michael Every reviews President Trump’s State of the Union remarks, highlighting policy ideas on tariffs, healthcare subsidies, AI datacentre electricity pricing, retirement schemes, voting ID and a new War on Fraud. Every also notes Trump’s hard line on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, suggesting potential geopolitical headlines that could affect markets in the near term.Trump agenda and Iran stance eyed"In the US State of the Union President Trump: reiterated an aspiration to replace income tax with tariff revenue; proposed shifting subsidies from health insurers to consumers; underlined the prices of US prescription medicines are lowered by increasing the prices in other economies; stated AI datacentres will pay separate, higher electricity prices; flagged opening up the retirement scheme available to federal workers to the private sector; argued to prevent members of Congress from profiting from inside information (“Did Nancy Pelosi stand up if she’s here?”); announced a new War on Fraud under VP Vance; pushed the SAVE America Act which enforces proof of ID to vote; and claimed that 35 million people told him that the Prime Minister of Pakistan would have died in a war with India if not for his involvement.""However, Trump underlined that while he prefers diplomacy, Iran is continuing with its “sinister plans” and is refusing to say, “We will never have a nuclear weapon” - and he will never allow them to have one.""That sounds like certain headlines may fall on market screens in the near future even if that rhetorical --and literal-- bomb wasn’t dropped at the end of the SoTU, as some had thought could complete its political theatre."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:44 GBP/JPY rallies beyond 211.00, over two-week top as waning BoJ rate hike bets weigh on JPY
The GBP/JPY cross is seen building on the previous day's strong move up and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second consecutive day on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY attracts buyers for the second consecutive day on Wednesday amid a weaker JPY.Delayed BoJ rate hike bets undermine the JPY, while renewed USD selling benefits the GBP.Dovish BoE expectations could cap the cross amid JPY intervention fears and geopolitical risks.The GBP/JPY cross is seen building on the previous day's strong move up and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The momentum remains unabated through the first half of the European session and lifts spot prices above the 211.00 mark or over a two-week top in the last hour.The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be undermined by reports that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was apprehensive about more rate hikes in a meeting last week with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Moreover, the government nominated two reflationists to join the BoJ board, forcing investors to trim expectations about the speed of interest rate hikes. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, further dents the JPY's safe-haven status and pushes the GBP/JPY cross higher.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) meets with a fresh supply amid concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies. This, in turn, benefits the British Pound (GBP), which further contributes to the currency pair's positive move. Apart from this, the strong move up could further be attributed to some technical buying following Tuesday's breakout through a trading range hurdle near the 209.50-209.60 region, though the upside for the GBP/JPY cross seems capped.Investors now seem convinced that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates as early as the March meeting, which marks a significant divergence in comparison to the BoJ's hawkish tilt. Apart from this, geopolitical risks could support the safe-haven JPY amid speculations that Japanese authorities could step in to stem further weakness. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the GBP/JPY cross and keep a lid on any further appreciating move. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.13% 0.20% -0.09% -0.52% -0.17% -0.05% EUR 0.14% 0.01% 0.35% 0.05% -0.37% -0.02% 0.10% GBP 0.13% -0.01% 0.34% 0.04% -0.38% -0.04% 0.08% JPY -0.20% -0.35% -0.34% -0.28% -0.71% -0.37% -0.24% CAD 0.09% -0.05% -0.04% 0.28% -0.42% -0.08% 0.05% AUD 0.52% 0.37% 0.38% 0.71% 0.42% 0.35% 0.47% NZD 0.17% 0.02% 0.04% 0.37% 0.08% -0.35% 0.12% CHF 0.05% -0.10% -0.08% 0.24% -0.05% -0.47% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
10:44 Pound Sterling trades higher against its peers despite BoE Bailey’s dovish remarks
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, 0.23% higher to near 1.3520 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling outperforms its major peers even as BoE’s Bailey delivers dovish remarks on the interest rate outlook.BoE’s Bailey remains confident that the UK inflation will return to the 2% target soon.The US Dollar has come under pressure after Trump’s SOTU before Congress.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, 0.23% higher to near 1.3520 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The British currency gains even as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey has delivered dovish remarks on the monetary policy outlook. Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.16% -0.18% 0.20% -0.12% -0.55% -0.21% -0.04% EUR 0.16% -0.02% 0.37% 0.04% -0.40% -0.05% 0.12% GBP 0.18% 0.02% 0.40% 0.06% -0.38% -0.02% 0.14% JPY -0.20% -0.37% -0.40% -0.30% -0.74% -0.40% -0.23% CAD 0.12% -0.04% -0.06% 0.30% -0.44% -0.10% 0.08% AUD 0.55% 0.40% 0.38% 0.74% 0.44% 0.36% 0.52% NZD 0.21% 0.05% 0.02% 0.40% 0.10% -0.36% 0.17% CHF 0.04% -0.12% -0.14% 0.23% -0.08% -0.52% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
On Tuesday, the comments from BoE’s Bailey before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee signaled that there is scope for interest rate cuts amid the expectation that inflationary pressures will return to the central bank’s 2% target.BoE’ Bailey didn’t explicitly endorse an interest rate cut in the Market policy meeting, but said, “Rate cut at next meeting is a genuinely open question”.On Monday, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor advocated for two to three interest rate cuts in the near term amid downside employment risks and cooling inflationary pressures. “Risks are shifting to lower inflation and higher unemployment, Taylor said, and added, “We [the BoE] might have two-three rate cuts to go before theoretical neutral level.”Meanwhile, correcting US Dollar (USD) has also offered strength to the GBP/USD pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower to near 97.65.The US Dollar has come under pressure after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress, in which he praised his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against tariffs. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
10:23 NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.6000 following Trump’s SoTU
NZD/USD remains stronger for the second successive day, trading around 0.5990 during the European hours on Wednesday.
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The pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) weakened following US President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SoTU) address of his second term, delivered before a joint session of Congress.President Trump said he had engineered a “turnaround for the ages,” pointing to lower inflation and praising his administration’s economic performance. He also highlighted measures to curb illegal immigration and stem the flow of fentanyl across the border. Trump added that he could impose higher tariffs on countries that “play games” with recent trade agreements after the Supreme Court struck down several of his sweeping global levies.The upside of the NZD/USD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may find renewed support as expectations build that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged for an extended period. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it would be appropriate to keep rates within the current range for some time. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that monetary policy is “well-positioned” to address risks surrounding the economic outlook.Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative as inflation approaches the midpoint of its target range. Governor Anna Breman said improving economic conditions should support a pickup in growth this year without reigniting strong inflationary pressures, indicating reduced urgency for further policy tightening. Traders now see little likelihood of a first rate hike before October or December. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
10:18 Oil: Market weighs Iran risk premium – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that ICE Brent fell over 1% as hopes grow for a US–Iran diplomatic solution, even as US military assets build up in the Middle East.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that ICE Brent fell over 1% as hopes grow for a US–Iran diplomatic solution, even as US military assets build up in the Middle East. They highlight bearish US inventory data and warn that, despite a strong backdrop, OPEC+ is likely to resume supply increases from April.Brent pressured by Iran talks and stocks"Oil prices weakened yesterday, with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1% lower amid hopes that the US and Iran will reach a diplomatic solution. There were reports yesterday that Iran is ready to strike a deal as soon as possible. This noise comes ahead of another round of planned talks between the US and Iran on Thursday.""At the same time, the US continues to build up military assets in the region. So, without a deal, the probability of military action is high and growing. President Trump’s 10-to-15-day deadline for Iran works out to a date sometime in very early March.""This uncertainty means the market will continue to price in a large risk premium and remain sensitive to any fresh developments.""US inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) were bearish, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 11.4m barrels over the week. This is well above the 1.9m barrels the market was expecting.""The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 1 March, and given the broader market strength, the group is likely to resume supply increases from April. This is despite the oil balance sheet suggesting that the market doesn’t need additional supply."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:03 Austria HICP (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.8% in January
Austria HICP (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.8% in January
10:03 Austria HICP (YoY) down to 2% in January from previous 3.8%
Austria HICP (YoY) down to 2% in January from previous 3.8%
09:55 US: Fed rhetoric and data keep policy easing in view – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team highlights mixed US signals, with consumer confidence rebounding modestly and ADP data pointing to faster private hiring. Fed officials Goolsbee and Bostic sounded hawkish, stressing the need for clearer disinflation and warning on upside inflation risks.
Danske Research Team highlights mixed US signals, with consumer confidence rebounding modestly and ADP data pointing to faster private hiring. Fed officials Goolsbee and Bostic sounded hawkish, stressing the need for clearer disinflation and warning on upside inflation risks. Despite markets pricing only a coin-flip for a June cut, Danske expects cooling real growth to trigger easing from June.Hawkish Fed talk versus easing outlook"In the US, the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure rebounded modestly in February to 91.2 (cons: 87.0, prior: 89.0), though the indices remain at weak levels. Future expectations recovered, while the current situation assessment weakened further. The widely followed 'jobs plentiful' index also rose modestly, but remains at low levels compared to pre-covid.""ADP's latest weekly private employment growth estimate came in at 12.75k. This is a 4W rolling average until 7 February, up from a revised 11.50k last week. At face value, it suggests strengthening jobs growth momentum, marking the fastest pace of hiring since late November.""On US monetary policy, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter) took a notably hawkish stance, emphasising the need to see clear progress on inflation before supporting further rate cuts. His dissent already in December to hold rates steady underscores his position as one of Fed's most hawkish participants. Atlanta Fed's Bostic (non-voter) highlighted the economy's resilience to last year's trade shocks and current AI-driven growth, supporting a 'mildly restrictive' policy, while cautioning that resurging inflation could warrant rate hikes.""Markets are currently pricing a coin flip of a cut in June. However, we expect cooling real growth will prompt the Fed to resume policy easing already in June."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:48 Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound as mood improves
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 25:
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Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 25:Following the volatile action seen at the beginning of the week, the US Dollar (USD) stood resilient against its rivals on Tuesday. With the market mood improving, however, the USD started to lose its strength early Wednesday. Eurostat will publish revisions to January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data later in the day. Since the US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases, market focus will remain on comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% -0.16% -0.03% -0.18% -0.67% -0.32% -0.13% EUR 0.23% 0.07% 0.18% 0.05% -0.45% -0.10% 0.10% GBP 0.16% -0.07% 0.15% -0.02% -0.52% -0.16% 0.03% JPY 0.03% -0.18% -0.15% -0.14% -0.64% -0.29% -0.09% CAD 0.18% -0.05% 0.02% 0.14% -0.50% -0.15% 0.05% AUD 0.67% 0.45% 0.52% 0.64% 0.50% 0.36% 0.55% NZD 0.32% 0.10% 0.16% 0.29% 0.15% -0.36% 0.19% CHF 0.13% -0.10% -0.03% 0.09% -0.05% -0.55% -0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Wall Street's main indexes gained traction after the opening bell on Tuesday and registered strong gains. In turn, the USD Index retreated from daily peaks to end the day marginally higher. In the European morning on Wednesday, US stock index futures trade flat and the USD Index stays in the red near 97.70.During the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech. Trump noted that there is no inflation and "tremendous growth," explaining tariffs as one of the main reasons behind the economic turnaround. Trump further added that almost all trading partners want to keep the trade deals they already made despite the Supreme Court's ruling. EUR/USD closed marginally lower on Tuesday before gaining traction on Wednesday. At the time of press, the pair was trading near 1.1800, rising more than 0.2% on the day.After rising sharply and posting gains for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, boosted by growing uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy-tightening outlook, USD/JPY seems to have entered a consolidation phase at around 156.00 on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said that specifics of monetary policy are to be left to the BoJ.Gold lost more than 1% on Tuesday but managed to hold comfortably above $5,100. XAU/USD corrects higher on Wednesday and advances toward $5,200.Earlier in the day, the data from Australia showed that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 3.8% in January. This print came in above the market expectation of 3.7%. AUD/USD gathers bullish momentum on Wednesday and trades at its highest level in nearly two weeks above 0.7100.GBP/USD gains traction and trades in positive territory above 1.3500 after struggling to find direction earlier in the week. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
09:47 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls await move beyond 156.00 amid constructive technical setup
The USD/JPY pair finds some support near the 155.35 area on Wednesday and stalls its retracement slide from a two-week high, touched the previous day.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 155.75 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and look to build on the upward trajectory witnessed over the past week or so.Despite the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, the US Dollar (USD) meets with a fresh supply as investors remain concerned about renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. This, along with geopolitical risks, underpins demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen (JPY), and prompts some intraday selling around the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, reports suggest that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was apprehensive about more rate hikes in a meeting last week with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Moreover, the government nominated two reflationists to join the BoJ board, forcing investors to trim expectations about the speed of interest rate hikes. This caps gains for the JPY and offers some support to the USD/JPY pair.From a technical perspective, the recent repeated rebounds from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) breakout zone and the subsequent move up favor bullish traders. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher above its signal and is now back in positive territory, suggesting improving upside momentum after a mid-month loss of traction. The Relative Strength Index around 54 stays above its midline without approaching overbought, aligning with a gradual recovery.Immediate resistance emerges at 156.90, the recent swing high ahead of 158.40, where the latest advance stalled, and supply reasserted. A daily close above 156.90 would open the way toward 158.40, with a break there exposing the 160.00 region as the next upside objective. On the downside, initial support stands at 155.00, guarding a deeper retracement toward 153.50, where prior lows converge with the short-term consolidation base. A loss of 153.50 would weaken the bullish bias and shift focus to the 152.70 area defined by the 200-day EMA.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)USD/JPY daily chart Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
09:45 France Consumer Confidence above forecasts (90) in February: Actual (91)
France Consumer Confidence above forecasts (90) in February: Actual (91)
09:44 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strives for Descending Triangle breakout
The EUR/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Wednesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1800 as the US Dollar declines after US President Trump’s speech.Trump praises his economic achievements and criticized Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs.Investors await the flash German HICP data for February.The EUR/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 1.1800 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.2% to near 97.65. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% -0.17% -0.06% -0.18% -0.67% -0.32% -0.14% EUR 0.23% 0.06% 0.20% 0.05% -0.45% -0.10% 0.10% GBP 0.17% -0.06% 0.17% -0.01% -0.51% -0.15% 0.04% JPY 0.06% -0.20% -0.17% -0.14% -0.64% -0.29% -0.09% CAD 0.18% -0.05% 0.01% 0.14% -0.49% -0.15% 0.06% AUD 0.67% 0.45% 0.51% 0.64% 0.49% 0.35% 0.55% NZD 0.32% 0.10% 0.15% 0.29% 0.15% -0.35% 0.20% CHF 0.14% -0.10% -0.04% 0.09% -0.06% -0.55% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
While speaking before Congress, US President Trump applauded his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court (SC) for ruling against his tariff policy. Trump said that the US SC’s ruling on tariffs was 'unfortunate', while they are the key driver behind the “economic turnaround”.The broader outlook for the US Dollar is upbeat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades higher ahead of the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining 0.1% in January, with annual figures rising steadily by 2.1%.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD rises to near 1.1805 as of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, reflecting balanced conditions. The price wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.1800, signifying a sideways trend.The major currency pair is close to delivering a decisive break of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A daily close above the February 23 high of 1.1835 would open the door for more upside towards the key level of 1.1900. Looking down, the pair could slide towards the January 22 low of 1.1670 if it breaks below the February 19 low of 1.1742.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Feb 27, 2026 13:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.1% Previous: 2.1% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
09:37 EUR/USD: Upside looks constrained by policy mix – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong holds a mildly constructive view on EUR/USD, driven mainly by expected Dollar softness rather than Euro strength. They note EUR lacks a strong undervaluation story and faces a cautious ECB, even as Germany’s fiscal stance supports growth.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong holds a mildly constructive view on EUR/USD, driven mainly by expected Dollar softness rather than Euro strength. They note EUR lacks a strong undervaluation story and faces a cautious ECB, even as Germany’s fiscal stance supports growth. With the Fed sounding firmer than markets, a delayed and shallower US easing cycle may cap EUR/USD gains.Euro gains hinge on softer Dollar"EURUSD gains are mainly USD-driven, but upside is constrained by a lack of EUR undervaluation and a cautious ECB. With the Fed sounding firmer than markets expect, a delayed and shallower US easing cycle may cap further EURUSD strength.""Our mildly constructive EURUSD view is driven more by USD weakness than EUR strength. As the main anti-USD, the EUR has benefited from a higher USD risk premium amid erratic US policymaking, which briefly pushed EURUSD above 1.20 in January.""But EURUSD upside looks limited. Unlike JPY or CNY, the EUR lacks a strong undervaluation story, and recent gains have already drawn caution from dovish ECB Governing Council members. Germany’s expansionary fiscal stance should support more stable Eurozone growth into 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:26 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $91.00 due to bullish recovery
Silver price (XAG/USD) has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session and is trading around $90.50 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Wednesday.
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The technical analysis of the daily chart timeframe shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56 trades above the midline without approaching overbought territory, which supports continued buying interest with room for further gains before momentum looks stretched.The near-term bias is cautiously bullish as the Silver price holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a recovery phase after the sharp mid-period sell-off. The short-term EMA has turned higher and diverges from the flatter 50-day gauge, indicating improving upside momentum rather than a mature uptrend.As long as the Silver price holds above the clustered moving-average supports, the path of least resistance points higher toward the $100.00 region ahead of the record high of $121.66, reached on January 29, where a horizontal line caps the broader topside and would define a major breakout if challenged.On the downside, the first key support sits near the rising nine-day EMA at $84.43, followed by the 50-day EMA at $79.94. A break below these averages would weaken the structure and expose the support at the two-month low of $64.08, recorded on February 6.XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
09:20 Fed: Hawkish repricing lifts front-end yields – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a more hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve path.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a more hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve path. The authors note reduced odds of a June rate cut, fewer basis points of easing priced by December, and a rise in 2-year Treasury yields, supported by comments from Fed officials pushing back against imminent rate cuts.Hawkish shift in Fed expectations"Given the more positive data and the tech stock rebound, investors also priced in a slightly more hawkish path for the Fed over the year ahead.""For instance, the probability of a rate cut by the June meeting fell to just 52%, the lowest so far this year.""And looking further out, just 55bps of cuts are now priced in by the December meeting, which was down -3.9bps on the day.""So in turn, that pushed up front-end Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+2.3bps) up to 3.46%, although the 10yr yield (-0.2bps) was basically flat at 4.03%.""Comments from Fed officials also leaned against imminent rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warning that 3% inflation “is not good enough” and that they needed to make more progress."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:04 USD/JPY: Two-way swings persist with intervention risk – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that USD/JPY faces ongoing two-way volatility as markets gauge Japanese government tolerance for BOJ policy normalization. Local media suggest PM Takaichi is wary of further rate hikes, which may limit BOJ tightening.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that USD/JPY faces ongoing two-way volatility as markets gauge Japanese government tolerance for BOJ policy normalization. Local media suggest PM Takaichi is wary of further rate hikes, which may limit BOJ tightening. Reported US Treasury rate checks near 158.00–159.00 highlight sensitivity to a weaker Japanese Yen and leave USD/JPY prone to sharp pullbacks.Volatility persists with intervention risk"Markets appear to remain sensitive to the degree of tolerance within the Japanese government for BOJ policy normalization. Recent local media reports indicate that PM Takaichi has concerns about more rate hikes during a meeting with BOJ Governor Ueda, which could constrain the BOJ’s rate tightening path. This has led to another bout of yen weakness yesterday.""There is likely continued two-way volatility for USDJPY. Indeed, as the yen weakens, there is a risk of FX intervention that could help contain the pace of currency depreciation. Notably, the US Treasury has also reportedly conducted a rate check on USDJPY in January, when the pair was trading around the 158.00–159.00 area, underscoring heightened sensitivity to a sharply weaker yen.""This backdrop leaves USDJPY vulnerable to sharper pullbacks, as we have seen in the days after the rate check. Recent yen softness has provided a marginal lift to the US dollar index (DXY), although the USD continues to struggle to convincingly re-establish its medium-term uptrend. Ongoing yen depreciation has kept policy normalization expectations alive, with markets pricing roughly a 56% probability of a BOJ rate hike in April, with a move fully priced by July."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:01 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 0.6% in 4Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 0.6% in 4Q
09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.4%) in 4Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.4%) in 4Q
09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in 4Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in 4Q
09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.1% to 2.4% in January
Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -1.1% to 2.4% in January
09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY): -2% (January) vs -2.7%
Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY): -2% (January) vs -2.7%
09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -24.7, below expectations (-23.5) in March
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -24.7, below expectations (-23.5) in March
08:46 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8700 amid UK political risks
The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8725, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the Euro (EUR) due to the upcoming UK political events.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
08:46 USD: Legal tariff risks weigh on Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that the shift from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs leaves the US administration on uncertain legal ground, with potential challenges and repayments ahead.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that the shift from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs leaves the US administration on uncertain legal ground, with potential challenges and repayments ahead. He notes that political and fiscal uncertainty are likely to burden the Dollar, and that past episodes show US Dollar weakness can accelerate quickly when political pressure resurfaces.Tariff legality and fiscal doubts pressure Dollar"Political uncertainty could therefore soon become a burden for the dollar again.""With regard to the current account, it is still difficult to speak of a balance of payments crisis. Although the current account deficit is high, it is financed by foreign investment in the US.""Why am I writing this? Quite simply, with the Trump administration's shift from the IEEPA tariffs, which the Supreme Court has just declared invalid, to the Section 122 tariffs, the US government has not exactly put itself on legally secure ground. It could well be that these tariffs will also be challenged soon and that they too will have to be repaid at some point.""This means that not only is the future of the tariffs uncertain, but so too is the revenue that the US government is currently generating from them. Both the political uncertainty and the uncertainty surrounding the already high US fiscal deficit will continue to weigh on the US dollar.""However, if political pressure comes to the fore, things can suddenly move very quickly. This is a risk that should definitely be kept in mind."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
08:33 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Stives to hold crucial 20-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair is down 0.16% to near 1.3675 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD), following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress earlier in the day.
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The Loonie pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD), following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress earlier in the day.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% to near 97.67, giving up its entire Tuesday’s gains.US President Trump didn’t provide any cues regarding the outlook on the tariff policy, but criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against them. Trump applauded his tariff policy for the economic turnaround, and stated that they will substantially replace the system of income tax.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly stable ahead of nuclear talks between the US and Iran on Thursday. The outcome will have a significant impact on the oil price. The CAD is highly sensitive to changes in the oil price, given that the Canadian economy is the largest exporter of oil to the US.USD/CAD technical analysisUSD/CAD trades lower at around 1.3675 as of writing. The pair holds a mild bullish bias as it stabilizes just above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.3670, keeping price action aligned with the broader upswing that started from the mid-1.34s. The price could extend towards the January 23 high around 1.3800 if it breaks above the January 27 high of 1.3740.Initial support aligns with the 20-day EMA at 1.3671, while a daily close back beneath the average would leave the pair vulnerable to downside towards the February 13 low around 1.3600.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a muted momentum.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator President Trump speech Donald J. Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. He became president for the first time in January 2017, representing the Republican party. His second mandate started in January 2025. Read more. Last release: Wed Feb 25, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source:
08:20 Oil: Middle East risks and energy price swings – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Global Strategist Michael Every underlines that escalating geopolitical tensions could drive significant volatility in energy markets. He points to rising frictions involving Iran, Israel and the US, and suggests conflict timing remains uncertain.
Rabobank's Senior Global Strategist Michael Every underlines that escalating geopolitical tensions could drive significant volatility in energy markets. He points to rising frictions involving Iran, Israel and the US, and suggests conflict timing remains uncertain. Every argues that once hostilities begin, the impact on energy prices will be notable, with scenarios ranging from sharply higher to sharply lower Oil benchmarks depending on the outcome.War risk clouds crude price outlook"In the Middle East, 11 US F-22s are now on the ground in Israel, as Reuters reports Iran is close to buying Chinese supersonic anti-ship missiles.""Embassies are sending warnings to their citizens around the region; Turkey is preparing to prevent an Iranian refugee surge at its border.""It remains to be seen when this war might begin --today, or after market close Friday?-- or what then happens, but such an outcome looks more likely than a sudden Peace For Our Time deal.""Either way, the impact on energy prices will be notable – either sharply up or sharply down.""Russia threatened the UK and France with nuclear strikes after alleging the pair were trying to get a nuclear weapon or dirty bomb to Ukraine: the financial media didn’t notice. It warned of plots to destroy gas pipelines through the Black Sea, following that of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Slovakia this week, which the financial media also didn’t notice."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
07:45 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Jumps to near two-week high above 110.50, bullish momentum prevails
The AUD/JPY cross jumps to near its two-week high around 110.70 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Aussie strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data, which raises bets for a May rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, the near-term bias for AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends well above the 100-day exponential moving average, confirming a sustained uptrend and strong trend following the recent breakout. The latest Bollinger Bands show price pressing toward the upper band, signaling firm buying pressure and elevated volatility rather than mean reversion. RSI around 65 remains in positive territory but below extreme overbought readings, indicating bullish momentum is intact with no clear exhaustion signal yet.Immediate support emerges at the rising Bollinger middle band near 109.10, where pullbacks could regroup buyers. A deeper setback would target the 107.00 zone, ahead of the 100-day EMA around 104.60, which defines the broader bullish line in the sand. On the topside, initial resistance comes at 111.00, with a sustained break opening the way toward the 112.50 region as the next upside objective. As long as price holds above 108.50, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, the near-term bias for AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends well above the 100-day exponential moving average, confirming a sustained uptrend and strong trend following the recent breakout. The latest Bollinger Bands show price pressing toward the upper band, signaling firm buying pressure and elevated volatility rather than mean reversion. RSI around 65 remains in positive territory but below extreme overbought readings, indicating bullish momentum is intact with no clear exhaustion signal yet.Immediate support emerges at the rising Bollinger middle band near 109.10, where pullbacks could regroup buyers. A deeper setback would target the 107.00 zone, ahead of the 100-day EMA around 104.60, which defines the broader bullish line in the sand. On the topside, initial resistance comes at 111.00, with a sustained break opening the way toward the 112.50 region as the next upside objective. As long as price holds above 108.50, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:35 Australian Dollar surges as inflationary pressures accelerate further
The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trades 0.7% higher above 0.7100 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday.
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Earlier in the day, Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI grew by 0.4% Month-on-Month (MoM), higher than 0.1% in December. Also, MoM Trimmed Mean CPI rose at a faster pace of 0.3% against the previous reading of 0.2%.On an annualized basis, Trimmed Mean CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.4% against estimates and the prior reading of 3.3%. Meanwhile, the headline inflation remained steady at 3.8%, while it was expected to cool down to 3.7%.In the policy meeting earlier this month, the RBA kept the door open for further interest rate hikes even as raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85%, citing upside inflation risks.“Inflation pulse is too strong, and we cannot allow inflation to get away from us again,” Bullock said in the press conference post interest rate announcement on February 3.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades lower after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address before a joint session of Congress. Trump applauded tariffs imposed during the administration, calling that responsible for the economic turnaround, and criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against them.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.13% to near 97.75. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
07:21 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Eyes 184.00 barrier after breaking above moving averages
EUR/JPY gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 183.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY eyes initial resistance at the 184.00 psychological level.The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 54 signals modest bullish momentum.Immediate support stands at the nine-day EMA near 182.94.EUR/JPY gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 183.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays above its midline and turns higher, indicating modest bullish pressure while leaving room for further gains if buyers regain control.The EUR/JPY cross holds a neutral-to-bullish tone as price consolidates above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend structure intact despite recent pullbacks from the 186.00 region. The nine-day EMA has flattened just below spot, reflecting loss of immediate upside momentum rather than a clear bearish reversal.On the upside, initial resistance lies at the psychological level of 184.00. Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to approach the 186.88, capping the recent advance and defining the barrier that bulls must clear to restore a stronger uptrend. A daily close above 186.88 would open the way toward a retest of prior highs.Immediate support emerges at the nine-day EMA at 182.94, which protects the sequence of higher daily lows and aligns with the underlying 50-day EMA at 182.85 backdrop. Further declines below the averages would weaken the momentum and expose a two-month low at 180.81, recorded on February 12, with deeper support seen at a four-month low at 175.70.EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.17% -0.09% -0.17% -0.68% -0.26% -0.18% EUR 0.19% 0.02% 0.09% 0.02% -0.49% -0.07% 0.00% GBP 0.17% -0.02% 0.08% -0.01% -0.51% -0.10% -0.01% JPY 0.09% -0.09% -0.08% -0.06% -0.58% -0.17% -0.08% CAD 0.17% -0.02% 0.00% 0.06% -0.51% -0.10% -0.01% AUD 0.68% 0.49% 0.51% 0.58% 0.51% 0.42% 0.50% NZD 0.26% 0.07% 0.10% 0.17% 0.10% -0.42% 0.08% CHF 0.18% -0.01% 0.01% 0.08% 0.01% -0.50% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
07:16 USD/INR consolidates at open ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat in the opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday.
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The USD/INR pair wobbles around 91.00 as the Indian Rupee trades with caution ahead of nuclear talks between the United States (US) and Iran on Thursday and the release of the domestic Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday.Investors will pay close attention to the outcome of the US-Iran nuclear talks as it would have a significant impact on the oil price. Currencies from countries that rely heavily on imports of oil to fulfill their energy needs remain highly sensitive to the oil price.The oil price is broadly firm amid tensions between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear plans. Washington wants Iran to give up its intentions of building nuclear facilities, but the latter refuses to do so. US President Donald Trump has also warned of military action in Tehran if it doesn’t drop its nuclear program. Trump threatened Tehran through a post on Truth Social on Monday that it will be a very bad day for the country and its people if they don’t reach a deal.The absence of a US-Iran deal could boost oil prices by escalating fears of disruption in the global oil supply, a scenario that will be unfavorable for the Indian Rupee.On Friday, India’s Q4 GDP data is expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 7.2%, slower than 8.2% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades lower after US President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union (SOTU) speech in history. While speaking before a joint session of Congress, Trump applauded his economic achievements, called “tariffs” as a key reason behind the economic turnaround, touted large tax cuts, criticized the Supreme Court’s recent ruling against his tariff policy, and praised the Venezuela action.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.13% to near 97.75.Broadly, the US Dollar trades stably amid firm speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged in its monetary policy meetings in March and April. The Fed is unlikely to make any monetary policy adjustment in the near term, as price pressures have remained above the central bank’s 2% target for a longer period.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key 20-day EMAUSD/INR trades flat at around 91.00 as of writing. The pair holds marginally above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, keeping a cautious bullish bias in place while upside momentum remains contained. Price action has stabilized after the early-month surge, and the flattening of the 20-day EMA reflects a moderating trend rather than an outright reversal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating signs of volatility contraction.Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 90.94, with a break below exposing the recent reaction low at 90.58 and then the February 3 low at 90.15 as deeper support. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the January 22 low of 91.35, followed by the January 28 low of 91.66. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
06:51 USD/CHF weakens below 0.7750 as Trump's speech weigh on US Dollar
The USD/CHF pair trades in negative territory near 0.7730 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after US President Donald Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address to Congress on Wednesday.
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Trump claimed economic success and called the tariffs ruling “unfortunate.”Traders will closely watch the developments surrounding the US and Iran tensions ahead of nuclear talks on Thursday.The USD/CHF pair trades in negative territory near 0.7730 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) after US President Donald Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address to Congress on Wednesday. The Swiss Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US January Producer Price Index (PPI) reports will be the highlights later on Friday. Trump said on Wednesday that he has overseen a "turnaround for the ages" and praised his economic achievements, focusing on lower inflation. He stated that his administration has made efforts to stem illegal immigration and fentanyl coming over the border. US President noted that “one of the main reasons for the US economic turnaround is tariffs,” adding that the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was “unfortunate.”Nonetheless, Trump went on to tout his new 15% global tariffs under section 122 of the Trade Act. He stated, "They're a little more complicated, but they're probably better, leading to a solution that will be even stronger than before.” Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs could weigh on the Greenback in the near term. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US and Iran tensions ahead of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. The US embassy in Lebanon on Monday evacuated "dozens of its staff members" as a precaution amid anticipated regional developments. Any signs of rising tensions between the US and Iran could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc. However, positive developments after the nuclear talks could ease geopolitical risks and weigh on the CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 15,174.63 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 15,121.45 it cost on Tuesday.The price for Gold increased to INR 176,993.90 per tola from INR 176,373.70 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram15,174.6310 Grams151,746.30Tola176,993.90Troy Ounce471,984.00FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:21 Pound Sterling remains stronger above 1.3500 following Trump’s State of the Union
GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3510 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD rises as a softer Dollar follows Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.Trump threatened higher tariffs on countries “playing games” after the Supreme Court blocked sweeping levies.BoE’s Bailey says March rate cut is an “open question” as services inflation hits 4.4%, above the 4.1% projection.GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3510 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued following US President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.Trump said he has delivered a “turnaround for the ages,” highlighting lower inflation and touting his administration’s economic record. He also pointed to efforts to curb illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl across the border. Trump warned he could impose higher tariffs on countries that “play games” with recent trade agreements after the Supreme Court blocked several of his broad global levies.The US Dollar (USD) could regain traction as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Tuesday that it would be appropriate to hold rates in the current range for some time. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that monetary policy is “well-positioned” to manage risks surrounding the economic outlook.In the United Kingdom (UK), the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Retail Sales Balance fell to -43 in February from -17 in January, missing expectations of -16. Retail volumes have been weakening since mid-2023, with February marking a sharp contraction. Retailers described seasonal sales as “poor” and foresee continued weakness amid subdued demand.The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey told Parliament’s Treasury Committee that a March rate cut remains “a genuinely open question,” noting services inflation stood at 4.4% in January, above the BoE’s 4.1% projection. Chief Economist Huw Pill also urged caution, warning against being “beguiled” by headline inflation easing toward the 2% target. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
05:52 EUR/USD rises to 1.1800 neighborhood amid renewed USD selling and trade uncertainties
The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and jumps to the 1.1800 neighborhood in the last hour, reversing the previous day's modest losses.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD advances during the Asian session as trade uncertainties prompt fresh USD selling.Trade uncertainties offset the Fed’s hawkish tilt and continue to undermine the Greenback.The final Eurozone CPI and German GDP eyed for short-term impetus ahead of the Fed speak.The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and jumps to the 1.1800 neighborhood in the last hour, reversing the previous day's modest losses. The intraday move up is sponsored by the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD), which continues to be weighed down by persistent trade-related uncertainties.Following a Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping levies, US President Donald Trump announced a new tariffs framework and signaled that his trade agenda remains firmly intact. In his State of the Union Address, Trump said that the White House pivoted to temporary global tariffs of 10% for 150 days under Section 122, and the administration is working toward 15%. This fuel worries about retaliatory measures and the economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains, which, in turn, weighs on the USD and provides a modest lift to the EUR/USD pair.Meanwhile, the USD bulls seem largely unaffected by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that several Fed officials judged that additional easing may not be warranted until there was an indication that the progress of disinflation was back on track. Moreover, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate to hold in the current range for some time. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that monetary policy is well-positioned to address the risks surrounding the economic outlook.On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that Eurozone inflation and the bank’s interest rate policy remain in a good place. Lagarde reiterated her long-standing guidance that no policy change is being considered, further lending support to the shared currency and the EUR/USD pair. The European Parliament decided on Monday to postpone a vote on the European Union's trade deal with the US. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair and keep a lid on any further appreciating move.Next on tap is the release of the final Eurozone consumer inflation figures. Apart from this, the final German GDP and the GfK Consumer Climate will be looked upon for a fresh impetus. Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from speeches from influential FOMC members, which might contribute to producing short-term opportunities around the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.12% -0.13% 0.00% -0.12% -0.59% -0.14% -0.07% EUR 0.12% -0.00% 0.15% 0.02% -0.47% -0.01% 0.06% GBP 0.13% 0.00% 0.17% 0.01% -0.47% -0.01% 0.04% JPY 0.00% -0.15% -0.17% -0.14% -0.61% -0.17% -0.11% CAD 0.12% -0.02% -0.01% 0.14% -0.48% -0.03% 0.03% AUD 0.59% 0.47% 0.47% 0.61% 0.48% 0.46% 0.51% NZD 0.14% 0.01% 0.01% 0.17% 0.03% -0.46% 0.05% CHF 0.07% -0.06% -0.04% 0.11% -0.03% -0.51% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
05:25 USD/JPY steadies near 156.00 following Trump’s SOTU
USD/JPY loses ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 155.90 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued after US President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.Trump said that he has overseen a "turnaround for the ages" and praised his economic achievements, focusing on lower inflation. Trump further stated that his administration has made efforts to stem illegal immigration and fentanyl coming over the border. He has threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries that "play games" with recent trade deals after the Supreme Court blocked many of the sweeping global levies.The downside of the USD/JPY pair could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) may decline on reports, suggesting that Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi expressed concerns about further interest rate hikes during her last week's meeting with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda.However, BoJ Governor Ueda stated that the discussion broadly covered economic and financial developments, adding that the Prime Minister made no specific monetary policy requests.Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said Wednesday that monetary policy specifics should be left to the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated she will closely monitor foreign exchange moves with a heightened sense of urgency. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:24 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5980 as US Dollar corrects after Trump’s SOTU speech
The NZD/USD pair trades 0.16% higher to near 0.5980 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
05:19 Gold advances back closer to $5,200 mark amid geopolitical tensions and USD weakness
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's modest pullback from the monthly top and climbs back closer to the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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Geopolitical risks remain in play ahead of the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks, scheduled on Thursday, amid a buildup of American forces in the Middle East. This turns out to be a key factor that helps revive demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling provides an additional boost to the commodity and contributes to the intraday move up.Despite the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook and Tuesday's positive economic data, investors remain on edge in the wake of renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. In fact, minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that several Fed officials judged that additional easing may not be warranted until there was an indication that the progress of disinflation was back on track. Furthermore, the recent comments from a slew of influential policymakers suggested the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates in the coming months amid still sticky inflation.Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate to hold in the current range for some time. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that monetary policy is “well-positioned” to address the risks surrounding the economic outlook. On the economic data front, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 91.2, up from January’s 89.0 (revised from 84.5). The USD bulls, however, struggle to attract any follow-through buying as investors remain concerned about the persistent uncertainty surrounding Trump's global tariffs.On Tuesday, the US moved ahead with a 10% tariff on all non-exempt goods, as initially announced by Trump on Friday after the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs. Trump, however, pledged to raise duties to 15%, fueling worries about retaliatory measures and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the USD upside, lending additional support to the Gold price. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap any further appreciation.The precious metal showed some resilience below the $5,100 mark on Tuesday, which represents a key horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point. The subsequent move up, meanwhile, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. The positive outlook is reaffirmed by the fact that the XAU/USD pair holds comfortably above the rising 200-period Moving Average (Simple Moving Average), which tracks near $4,930 and underpins the broader uptrend.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold bulls have the upper hand while above the $5,100 horizontal resistance-turned-supportMomentum has cooled from overbought territory, yet the Relative Strength Index (14) stabilizes around 62, keeping upside pressure in place rather than signaling a deeper correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, 9) has retreated from recent highs and flattens with shrinking positive readings, which suggests a consolidation phase within an overall positive structure rather than a completed top.On the upside, immediate resistance stands around $5,215, the latest reaction high, with a break above this level opening the way toward $5,240 as the next bullish target. As long as price holds above $5,150 initial support, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing uptrend.Meanwhile, initial support emerges near $5,100. A sustained break below $5,100 would expose a deeper layer near the $5,050 region, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish bias.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
04:52 Japan’s Ozaki: Specifics of monetary policy are to be left to the BOJ
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said on Wednesday that specifics of monetary policy are to be left to the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
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Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki said on Wednesday that specifics of monetary policy are to be left to the Bank of Japan (BOJ).Meanwhile, Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that she will closely monitor foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.21% lower on the day at 155.55. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:25 US Dollar Index softens below 98.00 as tariff uncertainty weighs
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a weaker note near 97.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
03:57 AUD/JPY holds gains above 110.00 following Australia’s CPI data
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 110.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support against its major peers as hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data fueled expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year.Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in January, matching the previous reading and exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. The CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in January, easing from 1.0% previously. The RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI for January rose 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, respectively.Traders will likely observe the speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, who is set to speak at a fireside chat at the Melbourne University Faculty of Economics & Business Foundation Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.The AUD/JPY cross also gained ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) declined sharply after the Mainichi Shimbun reported that Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi expressed concerns about further interest rate hikes during her meeting last week with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. However, BoJ Governor Ueda stated that the discussion broadly covered economic and financial developments, adding that the Prime Minister made no specific monetary policy requests.Japanese PM Takaichi is known for her pro-stimulus stance, backing expansionary fiscal measures and accommodative monetary policy. Her position clouds the outlook for BoJ rate hikes, amid speculation the central bank could resume policy normalization later this year. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Feb 25, 2026 00:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.8% Consensus: 3.7% Previous: 3.8% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
03:41 Canadian Dollar flat lines vs. USD as traders eye Trump’s SOTU speech for fresh impetus
The USD/CAD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks bearish conviction and remains close to the monthly peak touched the previous day.
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Spot prices currently trade just below the 1.3700 mark, down 0.05% for the day, as traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of US President Donald Trump's speech.Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term at 02:00 GMT and is expected to focus on the economy amid concerns about the fallout from persistent trade-related uncertainties. Trump's speech will also involve Iran ahead of the third round of nuclear talks on Thursday. This will play a key role in driving the US Dollar (USD) demand and influencing Oil price dynamics, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair.In the meantime, the risk of a US military strike on Iran acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices ahead of the third round of nuclear talks on Thursday. This is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and capping the upside for the currency pair. That said, overnight hawkish comments from a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials assist the USD to hold steady below its highest level since January 23, touched last week, which, in turn, limits the downside for the USD/CAD pair.Later during the North American session, traders will continue to take cues from Fed speak to grab short-term opportunities. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Even from a technical perspective, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout through the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so before determining a firm near-term trajectory for the USD/CAD pair. Economic Indicator President Trump speech Donald J. Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. He became president for the first time in January 2017, representing the Republican party. His second mandate started in January 2025. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 25, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source:
03:32 WTI declines to near $66.00 on US crude stock surge, traders monitor US-Iran developments
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.05 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price declines amid a significant build in US crude stockpiles.
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US crude stockpiles rose 11.4M barrels last week, API said. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran tensions before nuclear talks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $66.05 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price declines amid a significant build in US crude stockpiles. Traders brace for the release of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which will be released later on Wednesday.According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending February 20 climbed by 11.4 million barrels, compared to a decline of 609,000 barrels in the previous week. The report raises oversupply concerns and weighs on the WTI price. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US and Iran tensions ahead of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. On Monday, the US embassy in Lebanon evacuated "dozens of its staff members" as a precaution amid anticipated regional developments. US President Donald Trump said last week that he is thinking about launching a limited military attack on Iran to increase pressure on the nation to reach a nuclear agreement. He added that he believed that 10 to 15 days was "pretty much" the "maximum" amount of time he would permit for discussions to continue. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost the black gold price. The EIA crude oil stockpiles report will be published on Wednesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might weigh on the WTI price. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9321 vs. 6.9414 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.9321 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9414 and 6.8824 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.9321 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9414 and 6.8824 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:09 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $87.00 due to China-driven liquidation
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second successive session, trading around $87.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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Silver prices remain under pressure following a massive liquidation event in China, triggered by the unwinding of leveraged positions after a wave of speculative excess.The Shanghai Futures Exchange imposed stringent delivery restrictions, cutting delivery allocations to zero for many participants lacking approved hedging quotas. The selloff was compounded by a sharp reversal in China-led retail speculation,In addition, dollar-denominated Silver has lost appeal amid a stronger US Dollar (USD), as the metal becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies.Silver’s decline is being exacerbated by solar manufacturers, who are aggressively substituting the grey metal with copper to offset rising costs, even as the metal heads into its sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficits.Silver’s demand from the AI and electric vehicle sectors continues to provide a steady floor. Meanwhile, a sharp 10% price premium in Chinese domestic markets points to localized supply tightness that has yet to be fully reflected in international prices.The precious metal Silver could regain traction on persistent safe-haven demand after US President Donald Trump pledged to raise duties to 15% following a Supreme Court ruling that his use of emergency powers to impose tariffs exceeded his authority. However, the US on Tuesday moved ahead with a 10% tariff on all non-exempt goods, as initially announced by Trump on Friday.Traders are also awaiting Trump’s State of the Union address later in the day. The speech comes ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Thursday. “Both the US and Iran seem to be delaying rather than seriously trying to negotiate a solid agreement acceptable to both sides,” said Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA, according to Reuters. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
02:59 Australian Dollar edges higher after Australian CPI; focus shifts to Trump’s SOTU speech
The AUD/USD pair edges higher following the release of the latest Australian consumer inflation figures, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7075-0.7080 region, up over 0.20% for the day, as the market focus now shifts to US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address.Trump’s address comes on the back of the economic uncertainty driven by his far-reaching tariffs, some of which were struck down by a Supreme Court ruling last week. The most closely watched portion of the speech will almost certainly involve Iran amid the risk of a US military strike. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the broader market sentiment, which would influence demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD).In the meantime, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.8% YoY in January, coming in above the 3.7% expected and matching the previous month's reading. The data backs the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and provides a modest lift to the Aussie. The USD, on the other hand, preserves the previous day's modest gains and remains close to the monthly peak, touched last week. This might keep a lid on further gains for the AUD/USD pair. Economic Indicator President Trump speech Donald J. Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. He became president for the first time in January 2017, representing the Republican party. His second mandate started in January 2025. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 25, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source:
02:30 Australia Construction Work Done below expectations (0.8%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.1%)
Australia Construction Work Done below expectations (0.8%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.1%)
02:05 EUR/USD softens below 1.1800 on Fed hawkish remarks
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to around 1.1775 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Traders await the US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address later on Wednesday for clarity on fiscal policies.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:56 Indonesia: Deficit set to widen – UOB
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note that Indonesia’s current account moved back into a small deficit in 4Q25 and for full-year 2025.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note that Indonesia’s current account moved back into a small deficit in 4Q25 and for full-year 2025. They highlight persistent services and primary income deficits, ongoing financial account pressures, and expect the current account deficit to widen to 1% of GDP in 2026 on higher imports.Current account slips back into deficit"Indonesia’s current account slipped back into a deficit of USD2.54bn (0.7% of GDP) in 4Q25, reversing the 3Q surplus, driven by services and primary income wider deficits. The full year deficit for FY25 stood at USD1.5bn or 0.1% of GDP, lower than 2024’s deficit of USD8.6bn (0.6% of GDP).""External risks remain, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but CEPA agreements and Danantara’s strategic investment might provide upside potential. We expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 1% this year, driven by higher imports and sustained widening of the primary income deficit.""Looking ahead, external pressures from geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs remain key risks. Indonesia’s Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the U.S. (Feb 19) still poses uncertain outcomes while CEPA agreements with partners such as the EU, Canada, and South Korea provide trade diversification opportunities.""Amid rising global uncertainty, the financial account may continue to face some pressure. Upside potential might come from Danantara as driver of domestic direct investment through its strategic project investments, with President Prabowo targeting total investment assets of around USD900bn."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
01:54 GBP/USD stalls as Bailey flags services inflation
GBP/USD was essentially flat on Tuesday, drifting around 1.3500 in a quiet session.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:52 Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 2.6% in January
Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 2.6% in January
01:45 What to Expect From Trump's State of the Union Tonight
US President Donald Trump takes the podium before a joint session of Congress tonight to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term.
Trump delivers his first second-term SOTU amid a DHS shutdown, a Supreme Court tariff rebuke, and 60% disapproval.Iran is the wildcard; the White House has teased a potential military strike announcement during the speech.Immigration, once his strongest issue, has become a liability after federal agents killed two American citizens.The speech doubles as a midterm campaign pitch, with Democrats boycotting and staging counter-programming.US President Donald Trump takes the podium before a joint session of Congress tonight to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term. The speech, scheduled for 02:00 GMT, arrives at a moment when the President is contending with political headwinds on nearly every front, and when the stakes for his party couldn't be higher with midterm elections just nine months away.The backdrop alone tells a story: This will likely be the first State of the Union delivered during a government shutdown, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unfunded as Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. A Washington Post poll released over the weekend shows 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance. And just last week, the Supreme Court dealt him a significant blow by striking down the sweeping tariff policy that had been a cornerstone of his second-term economic agenda.Brink of strikesThe most closely watched portion of the speech will almost certainly involve Iran. ABC News has reported that Trump is considering a range of military options, including a possible limited strike aimed at strengthening America's negotiating position. The White House has been deliberately building anticipation around this topic. When pressed last week on whether the president would address potential strikes during the speech, press secretary Karoline Leavitt was coy but suggestive, telling reporters they'd "be hearing more about what is to come from the president's speech very soon."Tariff falloutOn the economy, Trump faces a messaging challenge: His administration is scrambling to prepare the paperwork to impose limited, yet widespread trade tariffs under Trade Act of 1974 authority, a scaled-back version of the broader framework the Supreme Court just invalidated. Voters have consistently given him poor marks on economic management, and the President has signaled he plans to focus on "affordability," a word that suggests an effort to meet Americans where their frustrations actually lie rather than re-litigating trade policy in the abstract.Losing groundImmigration was once Trump's strongest card; that is no longer the case. Public support for his mass deportation agenda has fallen sharply after federal immigration agents shot and killed two American citizens last month, an incident that shifted the political ground beneath the administration's feet. The ongoing DHS shutdown compounds the problem. Rather than play defense, the White House says Trump will call on congressional Democrats to reopen the department, an attempt to redirect blame and reclaim the initiative.Beyond these flashpoints, the president is expected to tout what he views as his first-year accomplishments: record deportation numbers, deregulation, and efforts to broker peace in several global conflicts. He'll almost certainly frame these as reasons to keep Republicans in power come November, making the speech as much a campaign address as a constitutional obligation.The optics warThe political theater surrounding the event is worth noting as well. Dozens of congressional Democrats plan to boycott entirely, attending a MoveOn.org counter-event on the National Mall instead. Meanwhile, several House Democrats have invited survivors of Jeffrey Epstein as their guests, a pointed bit of counter-programming. On the lighter side, Trump has invited the US men's Olympic hockey team, fresh off their gold medal victory in Milan.Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger will deliver the Democratic response. Her selection is itself a statement: Spanberger flipped the Virginia governor's mansion from red to blue last November, becoming the state's first woman governor in a race widely seen as a warning sign for Republicans heading into 2026.The long night aheadTrump has promised a long night; "It's going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about," he said over the weekend. Last year's address to a joint session ran 99 minutes. Whether tonight's speech changes his political trajectory or merely underscores the challenges he faces will depend largely on what he says about Iran, and whether the country is convinced by his pitch on everything else.
01:44 USD/JPY surges as Takaichi pushes back on BoJ rate hikes
USD/JPY jumped about 0.7% on Tuesday, rallying sharply to around 155.86 in a session driven almost entirely by Japanese Yen weakness.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Japanese Yen sells off after reports PM Takaichi voiced opposition to further tightening in meeting with BoJ's Ueda.PM Takaichi reportedly took a tougher stance against further BoJ rate hikes in a meeting with Governor Ueda last week, complicating the central bank's tightening timeline.January FOMC minutes showed several Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation stays above target, reinforcing the extended pause at 3.50% to 3.75%.USD/JPY jumped about 0.7% on Tuesday, rallying sharply to around 155.86 in a session driven almost entirely by Japanese Yen weakness. The pair has been chopping in a wide range between about 152.00 and 157.00 since late January, with alternating large-bodied bullish and bearish candles pointing to a tug-of-war between opposing forces. Tuesday's strong bullish candle pushed price back into the upper half of that range after last week's pullback toward the 153.000 area.Reports from the Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced concern about further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes during her February 16 meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda sent the Japanese Yen lower across the board. Prior to the report, a majority of economists polled by Reuters had expected the BoJ to raise its policy rate to 1% by the end of June, with markets pricing roughly 70% odds of a hike by April. Takaichi's pro-stimulus stance, now backed by a landslide election victory, raises the risk that the BoJ's tightening path could be delayed despite underlying inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) still running at 2.6%.On the US Dollar (USD) side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in January, but the minutes released last week showed several participants discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above target. US consumer confidence ticked up to 91.2 in February, though the expectations component has now spent 13 consecutive months below the 80 recession-warning threshold. Trump's new 15% global tariffs following the Supreme Court ruling continue to cloud the broader risk outlook.Price recovers above the 50-day EMA as Stochastic crosses bullish in neutral territoryThe pair reclaimed the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 155.30 on Tuesday's rally, while the 200-day EMA around 152.70 continues to rise and provided a floor during the early-February pullback toward the 152.100 low. The Stochastic Oscillator has crossed bullish and is drifting higher through neutral territory, suggesting upside momentum is rebuilding after the recent pullback from the January highs close to 159.450. A sustained push above the 157.00 area would open a path toward the 158.000 round number, while a failure to hold above the 50-day EMA would shift focus back toward the 153.00 zone and the 200-day EMA.USD/JPY Daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
01:40 Fed’s Collins: We're quite likely to hold current rates for some time
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate to hold in the current range for some time.
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Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate to hold in the current range for some time.Key quotesI'm watching to see if high productivity helps disinflation process.
So far hearing AI has been enhancing work, not displacing workers.
I am a cautious optimist regarding all economic impact.
Overall the unemployment rate is low.
Tariff ruling adds bit of potential inflation persists.
Latest tariff news has not altered outlook much.
We're quite likely to hold current rates for some time.
Fed policy mildly restrictive and may be close to neutral.
It seems to me that monetary policy should be patient and deliberate.
Baseline view is that inflation should decline later this year.
Seeking more confidence disinflation has resumed.
Lower job growth may reflect productivity and uncertainty.
Job market softened last year but wasn't soft.
There may be more stability in job market amid fragility.
Recent job data has been promising.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.88, up 0.14% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
So far hearing AI has been enhancing work, not displacing workers.
I am a cautious optimist regarding all economic impact.
Overall the unemployment rate is low.
Tariff ruling adds bit of potential inflation persists.
Latest tariff news has not altered outlook much.
We're quite likely to hold current rates for some time.
Fed policy mildly restrictive and may be close to neutral.
It seems to me that monetary policy should be patient and deliberate.
Baseline view is that inflation should decline later this year.
Seeking more confidence disinflation has resumed.
Lower job growth may reflect productivity and uncertainty.
Job market softened last year but wasn't soft.
There may be more stability in job market amid fragility.
Recent job data has been promising.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.88, up 0.14% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
01:39 NZD/USD drifts lower as rate hike expectations fade
NZD/USD slipped 0.14% on Tuesday, settling close to 0.5960 in a narrow session. The pair is trading above its key moving averages, but bullish momentum has waned.
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New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
01:33 Fed's Barkin: Monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks
Federal Reserve (Fed) President of the Bank of Richmond Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that monetary policy is “well positioned” to deal with the risks around the economic outlook.
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Federal Reserve (Fed) President of the Bank of Richmond Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that monetary policy is “well positioned” to deal with the risks around the economic outlook.Key quotes I do not expect a violent change in the economy due to AI.
I am hoping to see more breadth in economy going forward.
Productivity rise is not just from AI.
I worry about what a pullback in all investments would do to the economy.
Underlying dynamics support consumer sector.
Expects latest tariff moves will not change inflation dynamics much.
Monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks.
Across the economy you are seeing disinflation but wants more confirmation in data.
Firms say they have very limited pricing power.
Inflation data has been consistently above target.
Difficult to calibrate what is going on with labor supply.
Clear sense that job market has loosened.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.88, up 0.14% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
I am hoping to see more breadth in economy going forward.
Productivity rise is not just from AI.
I worry about what a pullback in all investments would do to the economy.
Underlying dynamics support consumer sector.
Expects latest tariff moves will not change inflation dynamics much.
Monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks.
Across the economy you are seeing disinflation but wants more confirmation in data.
Firms say they have very limited pricing power.
Inflation data has been consistently above target.
Difficult to calibrate what is going on with labor supply.
Clear sense that job market has loosened.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.88, up 0.14% on the day. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
01:15 Gold tumbles below $5,150 on profit-taking, US Dollar strength
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $5,140, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal loses momentum amid some profit-taking and a stronger US Dollar (USD).
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New round of US-Iran talks will be held on Thursday in Geneva. Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $5,140, snapping the four-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal loses momentum amid some profit-taking and a stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders will closely monitor the US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address on Wednesday for clarity on fiscal policies. After reaching multi-week highs, traders start booking their profits, weighing on the yellow metal. Furthermore, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials underpin the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price lower. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that interest rates are likely to stay unchanged “for some time” as recent economic data shows an improvement in the labor market, while risks to inflation remain, per Bloomberg. However, the potential downside for precious metals might be limited due to uncertainty over US trade policy and heightened tensions in the Middle East. The US Supreme Court on Friday struck down US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump said on Saturday he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law, raising confusion about US tariffs. The US and Iran are expected to meet for a further round of talks in Geneva on Thursday in a sign that Trump’s administration believes Tehran is making serious proposals to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and show it is not seeking a nuclear weapon. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that he thought there was still a good chance of finding a diplomatic solution. Nonetheless, any signs of rising tensions between the US and Iran could boost a traditional safe-haven asset such as Gold in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:11 USDPHP: BSP signals high bar for more cuts – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has delivered a sixth straight rate cut but now signals a high bar for further easing. Governor Eli Remolona stresses that data must change significantly to justify more cuts.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has delivered a sixth straight rate cut but now signals a high bar for further easing. Governor Eli Remolona stresses that data must change significantly to justify more cuts. The central bank is less focused on Fed differentials, watching currency and price swings that affect trade and inflation.Philippines cautious after easing streak"Philippines’ central bank has signaled that the bar for another rate cut is high after delivering a sixth straight reduction, with Governor Eli Remolona stating that data would need to change significantly from current levels to justify further easing.""The benchmark rate stands at 4.25% amid slowing growth and confidence pressures linked to U.S. tariffs and a domestic graft investigation.""Remolona said monetary policy can only partly restore sentiment, with a greater impact expected from credible government reforms.""The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is not moving in lockstep with the Federal Reserve and is less focused on policy rate differentials, instead monitoring currency and price swings that could affect exports, imports and inflation."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
01:10 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Jumps towards 110.00 on JPY weakness
The AUD/JPY surges late in the North American session, up by over 0.83% as the Japanese Yen weakens as PM Takaichi expressed stronger resistance to further tightening by the Bank of Japan, led by Governor Ueda.
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Also, expectations that Australian CPI data would continue to remain hot, keeps the cross underpinned near the 110.00 milestone.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/JPY is upward biased, even though it has failed —so far, to clear the record high of 110.67, hit on February 10. Nevertheless, downside risks remain as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows some signs of weakness. Hence, if the index drops below the next cycle low of 56.55, the cross could follow suit, registering further losses.For a bullish continuation, buyers need to conquer 110.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at 110.67. A breach of the latter will expose 111.00. On the downside, the first key support would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 109.10. on further weakness, the next stop would be a key support trendline drawn from November 2025 lows, at around 108.00.AUD/JPY Price Chart – DailyAUD/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:49 AUD/USD consolidates below three-year highs ahead of key CPI
AUD/USD edged higher by less than 0.1% on Tuesday, trading in a narrow range around 0.7060.
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Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:28 USD/SGD: Losses unwind as MAS bets fade – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/SGD is retracing earlier losses seen after US tariff headlines, with softer risk appetite and reduced expectations for MAS tightening in April weighing on the Singapore Dollar.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/SGD is retracing earlier losses seen after US tariff headlines, with softer risk appetite and reduced expectations for MAS tightening in April weighing on the Singapore Dollar. Headline CPI matched forecasts but a surprise dip in core inflation has reinforced the house view that MAS will hold policy in April and monitor subsequent inflation data.Core inflation surprise supports rebound"USDSGD’s earlier losses post-US tariff announcement showed signs of unwinding.""Softer risk appetite and slight pare back in expectations for MAS to tighten in Apr (following the pullback in core CPI) were some factors behind SGD’s underperformance overnight.""Our economist highlighted that headline CPI was in line with our forecast at 1.4% YoY, but the dip in core inflation to 1.0% YoY was a surprise which was attributed to an easing in services inflation.""Our house view continues to look for MAS to hold in Apr and to monitor for further inflation prints."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
00:04 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Jumps as PM Takaichi flags BoJ hike concerns
The Pound Sterling advances versus the Japanese Yen, in the aftermath of comments that the Japanese PM Takaichi expressed her concerns about additional rate hikes to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as the central bank seems poised to resume its normalization of monetary policy.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY surges as Sanae Takaichi questions pace of hikes by Kazuo Ueda.Technical bias remains bullish after rebound from 100-day SMA near 207.60.Break above 211.00 opens path toward 214.44, though intervention risks may cap gains.The Pound Sterling advances versus the Japanese Yen, in the aftermath of comments that the Japanese PM Takaichi expressed her concerns about additional rate hikes to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as the central bank seems poised to resume its normalization of monetary policy. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY trades at 210.34, posting gains of over 0.80%.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY technical picture shows the cross remains upward biased after finding support at the confluence of the 100-day SMA and a support trendline at around 207.62, clearing the 208.00 figure, extending its gains of over 160 pips.Momentum as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to turn bullish, but fears of a possible intervention in the FX markets by the BoJ or Japanese authorities, can cap the cross-pair advance.Immediate resistance is pegged at the 210.50 area, followed by the 50-day SMA past the 211.00 figure at 211.02. A breach of the latte r clears the way to challenge the next key swing high at 214.44, the February 9 high.On the downside, support is seen at the February 16 high turned support at 209.68, followed by the February 23 daily low of 208.14. Should the 208.00 figure gives way and the focus shifts towards the 100-day SMA.GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily GBP/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.20% -0.04% 0.59% 0.20% 0.33% 0.36% -0.04% EUR -0.20% -0.19% 0.40% 0.03% 0.12% 0.17% -0.15% GBP 0.04% 0.19% 0.78% 0.20% 0.29% 0.36% -0.02% JPY -0.59% -0.40% -0.78% -0.40% -0.22% -0.27% -0.68% CAD -0.20% -0.03% -0.20% 0.40% 0.17% 0.12% -0.26% AUD -0.33% -0.12% -0.29% 0.22% -0.17% 0.04% -0.37% NZD -0.36% -0.17% -0.36% 0.27% -0.12% -0.04% -0.38% CHF 0.04% 0.15% 0.02% 0.68% 0.26% 0.37% 0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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